Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 12:20 AM

Phillies And Indians Make Early Fade List

We’re a week into an already-eventful 2012 MLB campaign. And while we don’t want to overreact to early-season results, we think the first week has provided some hints regarding sides we ought to consider “fading’ and “shading” until further notice.

Following is a quick list of teams we’ll be keeping our eyes upon in the next few weeks.

FADE: Philadelphia Phillies
As many insiders suggested prior to the season, the Phils could be ready for a steep drop as age suddenly becomes an issue in the everyday lineup. And that was with the team at full strength. With several key hands not on deck, the situation becomes more concerning, which is exactly what has happened in the early going, with the Phils stumbling to a 1-3 break from the gate. Only a 1-0 win at Pittsburgh on opening day, with Roy Halladay in fine form, prevented an even worse kickoff to the campaign.

The problems for the Phillies are mostly on offense, where 1B Ryan Howard and 2B Chase Utley both opened the season on the DL, and their return dates still up in the air. Replacements Ty Wigginton and Freddy Galvis (just 2-for-22 between them in the first four games) are struggling. Moreover, the numbers on the attack side for the Phils have been declining since the 2009 campaign. And, defensively, this year’s team was already looking at taking a step back with manager Charlie Manuel forced into a few platoon necessities.

Also don’t forget that the notoriously-fickle fan base which hasn’t had much to boo about in recent years can become its old, nasty self in short order, something the Phils haven’t had to worry about lately. Mostly, however, we look to “fade” the Phils because it might take the oddsmakers and wagering public a while before adjusting their perception of the team. Expect good value spots against Philadelphia in the coming weeks.

SHADE: Arizona Diamondbacks
We’re still a bit flummoxed at the low season-win numbers on the D-Backs, which we suspected were more of a reaction to past failures not only by the Snakes but also teams that emerged from nowhere in the previous season. But Arizona is a much different side than the one which collapsed after the last playoff appearance in 2007, more disciplined at the plate, aggressive on the basepaths, and conscientious on defense.

Maybe Arizona cools off, but it has started a franchise-best 4-0, including that impressive weekend sweep over the visiting Giants. Even when falling behind 6-0 on Sunday, Arizona scratched and clawed its way back into the game, with its collection of contact hitters forcing the Giants to make plays in the field (many of which they couldn’t convert). Chris Young’s early production suggests a monster year, C Miguel Montero is swinging a hot bat, and Willie Bloomquist’s ongoing production from the SS position is lessening the absence of Stephen Drew, who continues to mend his ankle injury from last year.

On the mound, J,J. Putz is one of the few top-notch closers to not yet blow a save (he’s 3-for-3). The only concern at the moment for the staff was a shaky opening start by Josh Collmenter. Mostly, however, the D-Backs seem to continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers, and should provide good value until further notice.

FADE: Cleveland Indians
It is hard to make much progress when not scoring many runs. And even though it’s early in the season, Cleveland’s .153 BA through four games is cause for concern on the shores of Lake Erie.

What is worrisome to Tribe backers is that the pitching staff is neither strong nor deep enough to overcome the inconsistencies at the plate. Already, CF Grady Sizemore has been shelved with a back injury that might sideline him until the All-Star break, or longer. Travis Hafner’s most-productive days as a DH appear in the rear-view mirror. Only C Carlos Santana, who hit a pair of homers in Sunday’s 4-3 win over Toronto (the Tribe’s only win in its first four games), has been swinging a hot bat. Hafner, OF Shin-Soo Choo and SS Asdrubal Cabrera have all started slowly (none hitting better than .200), putting extra strain on the pitching staff which has wasted some quality starts from Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Closer Chris Perez has also not looked sharp, blowing a save in the opener vs.the Blue Jays and wobbling in his other appearances. The Tribe looks like a tough sell at the moment, at least until the offense begins to perk up.

SHADE: Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees have brought the Birds – resplendent with the “cartoon Oriole” adorning their hats once again – back to Earth, as they usually do; New York had won 41 of the last 56 game vs. the O’s, including the first two of their midweek set going into Wednesday night’s encounter. But we suspect Buck Showalter’s team, which dominated the Twins in a weekend sweep, might provide decent value through April.

AL East sources indicate as much, suggesting that Baltimore can probably play over its head in the early going (as it did a year ago) before the lack of depth and the pitching become exposed. For the time being, however, the Orioles are getting some clutch hitting, with C Matt Wieters, CF Adam Jones and 2B Robert Andino all batting above .300 through five games, Wieters and RF Nick Markakis both going deep twice in the first five games. The versatile Andino, in particular, looks to be a capable replacement for injured 2B Brian Roberts.

The O’s have also impressed observers with some of the young arms on display, with starters Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter and Taiwanese import Yai-Win Chen looking extremely good in early work, while another new face, Pedro Strop, has opened eyes with his electric stuff out of the bullpen. Even if the Orioles eventually sag, they look like they might provide decent value until further notice.

Other potential “faders” to watch: Chicago Cubs & Minnesota Twins. Other potential “shaders” to watch: Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 12:23 AM

Thursday Tips

April 11, 2012

The Thursday baseball card is day-heavy with six of the nine games taking place under the sun. Only one series is a brand-new one, while the other eight are getaway games, including the Rays/Tigers, Brewers/Cubs, and Angels/Twins. We'll begin in Washington as the Nationals play their home opener against Cincinnati.

Reds at Nationals - 1:05 PM EST

A pair of pitchers in new uniforms makes their second start each as Gio Gonzalez faces off against Mat Latos. The Nats return home after playing their first six games at Chicago and New York, while Cincinnati hits the highway for the first time this season. Gonzalez was shaky in his Washington debut by allowing four earned runs and seven hits in 3.2 innings, but the Nats rallied with five runs in the eighth for a 7-4 victory.

Things didn't turn out well for Latos in his Reds' debut, giving up four earned runs in 4.2 innings of an 8-3 home defeat to the Marlins as a $1.45 favorite. Latos lost his only start against the Nationals last season as a member of the Padres, scattering four hits and two earned runs in a 2-1 loss last June. The Reds won four of six meetings last season with the Nationals, but Washington took two of three matchups in D.C.

Rays at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST<

Detroit looks to bounce back in the rubber match of its three-game set with a victory on Thursday over Tampa Bay. Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander each delivered solid performances in the first two contests of the series, as the Tigers' bullpen squandered a late 2-0 lead in Wednesday's 4-2 setback to the Rays. Drew Smyly makes his Major League debut for the Tigers as the southpaw has pitched just one game above the Double-A level, while allowing four runs in 5.1 innings in his previous start in spring training on April 2.

The Rays counter with Jeff Niemann, who struggled towards the end of last season. Niemann won at least 11 games for the third consecutive campaign in 2011, as Tampa Bay finished 9-2 in his 11 road starts last season. The former Rice product lost his only career start at Comerica Park in 2009, a 4-3 setback in spite of scattering five hits and two earned runs in seven innings.

Angels at Twins - 1:10 PM EST

Minnesota stumbled out of the gate with an 0-4 start, but the Twins finally broke through the win column with last night's 6-5 triumph over the Halos. The Angels have had things relatively easy from a schedule standpoint with their first five games against Kansas City and Minnesota, but Los Angeles is just 2-3 so far. The Twins send out Francisco Liriano to the hill, as the lefty was lit up in his first outing at Baltimore. Liriano allowed six runs and eight hits in four innings of work as the Orioles dominated the Twins, 8-2.

Dan Haren didn't fare much better in his season debut, a 6-3 loss to the Royals as a $1.80 home favorite. The veteran right-hander yielded 11 hits and two homers in 5.1 innings, but the Angels picked up a pair of victories in Haren's two starts against the Twins last season.

Mariners at Rangers - 2:05 PM EST

Seattle registered a solid road win as $1.90 underdogs in last night's 4-3 win at Texas, as the Mariners go for the series split. The M's rallied for four runs in the final two innings to rack up their fourth win of the season and the first victory in the last eight tries against the Rangers. Jason Vargas takes the mound for the third time this season after facing the Athletics twice so far. The Seattle southpaw grabbed a road 'dog victory his last time out, even though he went just 5.1 innings in a 7-3 triumph.

The Rangers counter with Derek Holland, who lost his first start of the season against the White Sox as a $1.65 favorite. That setback snapped a seven-game winning streak by Texas dating back to last season with the lefty on the mound. Holland won three of four starts against the Mariners in 2011, but the lone loss came to Vargas in August as 'chalk' of $2.15 in a 4-3 defeat.

Brewers at Cubs - 2:20 PM EST

Chicago has floundered through the first week by posting a 1-5 record. The Cubs look to avoid the sweep against the rival Brewers this afternoon following Milwaukee's 2-1 close-shave win on Wednesday. Two of the stronger right-handed arms in the game square off at Wrigley Field as Zack Greinke and Matt Garza toe the rubber. Greinke dominated the Cardinals last Saturday, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 shutout as a $1.20 home favorite. Last season, the Brewers won two of Greinke's three starts against the Cubs, but the lone loss came on the North Side in a 12-7 defeat.

Garza was in line for a win in his season debut, but the Chicago bullpen blew a 4-2 lead in a 7-4 setback to Washington. The former Rays' pitcher scattered five hits and two earned runs in six innings, the first loss by the Cubs in a start made by Garza since August 25, 2011. Garza won two of three starts against the Brewers in 2011, including a complete-game six-hitter as a short favorite last September.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 11:45 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 12

Not a lot of relevant info to give out this early in the season, but we'll do what we can for the first week or so, until some trends develop.

Hot pitchers
-- Latos is 2-1, 2.21 in his last three starts. Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.20 in his last five starts.
-- Garza is 2-0, 2.32 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Bass was 2-0, 1.20 in three starts LY, going five innings in all three.
-- Karstens has a 1.50 RA in his last starts, but no wins in his last six.

-- Texas won seven of Holland's last eight starts. Vargas is 4-0, 2.35 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Greinke has a 5.16 RA in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-2, 4.80 in his last three starts. Moyer is 0-4, 8.41 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton is 1-2, 3.97 in his last seven starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-1, 4.19 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano has a 6.46 RA in his last three starts.

-- Niemann is 3-3, 6.08 in his last seven starts. Smyly is making his first major league start for Detroit; he was 4-3, 1.18 in seven AA starts LY, and allowed three runs in 1.2 IP in his only AAA appearance this year. .
-- Haren is 1-3, 5.81 in his last four starts. Erratic Liriano is 2-2, 6.60 in his last six starts.
-- Seattle is 4-3 and hasn't played a home game yet.

Pitcher vs Opponent
-- Latos lost 2-1 in his only start vs Washington LY (2 runs/6 IP). Gio Gonzalez didn't pitch against the Reds LY.
-- Greinke allowed one run in 14 IP in his last two starts vs Cubs. Garza was 2-1, 4.79 in three starts vs Milwaukee LY.
-- Bumgarner was 2-1, 1.67 in four starts vs Colorado LY. Moyer gave up four runs in six IP in his last start vs SF, in April of 2010.
-- Blanton beat Florida 6-4 in his only '11 start against them, allowing three runs in five IP.
-- Kennedy was 3-0, 1.74 against the Padres last season.
-- Karstens allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his only start vs LA LY, game Pirates later won 4-1. Capuano was 1-1, 3.46 in two starts against the Pirates last season.

-- Niemann lost 5-2 in his only start vs Detroit LY (four runs/7.1 IP)
-- Haren was 2-0, 2.57 against the Twins LY. Liriano lost 7-1 in his only start vs Angels LY, giving up seven runs in five IP.
-- Vargas was 2-1, 3.92 against the Rangers LY. Holland was 3-0, 3.12 in his four starts vs Seattle LY.

Hot teams
-- Los Angeles won five of its first six games.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last five games.
-- Arizona won four of its first five games.

-- Tampa Bay/Detroit both won four of their first five games.
-- Texas won four of its first six games.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost three of its last four games. Marlins lost four of their first six games.
-- Pirates lost three of their last four games.
-- Reds lost three of their last five games.
-- Braves lost four of their first six games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Colorado lost three of its last four games. Giants lost four of their first five games.
-- Padres lost four of their first six games.

-- Angels lost three of their last four games. Minnesota lost four of its first five games.

We're going to get into totals and umpires and that good stuff, once we get enough to lnowledge this season to make it all relevant.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 11:58 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 12

Hot Teams
-- Bulls won five of their last seven home games.
-- Clippers won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Grizzlies won seven of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Pistons lost eight of their last ten road games. Bobcats lost their last 13 games (4-9 vs spread).
-- Miami lost three of its last four home games.
-- Minnesota lost its last seven games (1-6 vs spread).
-- Spurs lost last two games, but are 7-1-1 vs spread in their last nine home contests.
-- Golden State lost six of its last eight home games. Mavericks lost 10 of their last 13 road games.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Pistons: Last two nites off. Bobcats: 7th game/10 nites.
-- Heat: 3rd game/5 nites. Bulls: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Clippers: 6th game/9 nites. T'wolves: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 5th game/7 nites. Spurs: 7th game/10 nites.
-- Mavericks: 2nd game/5 nites. Warriors: 7th game/10 nites.

Totals
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Miami games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Denver home games stayed under.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Memphis games.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Dallas road games.

Back-to-Back
-- Minnesota is 0-3 vs spread at home if it played night before. Clippers are 3-2 vs spread on road if they won night before.
-- Memphis is 6-2 vs spread on road if it played night before. Spurs are 3-1 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Warriors are 11-4 vs spread if they played the night before.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 12:10 PM

MLB April Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/11/12 16-*14-*0 53.33% +*1145 Detail
04/10/12 13-*7-*1 65.00% +*2885 Detail
04/09/12 13-*10-*0 56.52% +*1880 Detail
04/08/12 13-*14-*0 48.15% -*640 Detail
04/07/12 15-*14-*0 51.72% -*440 Detail
04/06/12 3-*6-*1 33.33% -*1775 Detail

Totals 73-*65-*2 52.90% +3055

Thursday, April 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +106 500
Detroit - Over 9 500

Cincinnati - 1:05 PM ET Washington -101 500
Washington - Under 7.5 500

LA Angels - 1:10 PM ET LA Angels -145 500
Minnesota - Over 7.5 500

Seattle - 2:05 PM ET Seattle +219 500
Texas - Under 9.5 500

Milwaukee - 2:20 PM ET Milwaukee -124 500
Chi. Cubs - Over 7.5 500

San Francisco - 3:10 PM ET San Francisco -122 500
Colorado - Over 7.5 500

Miami - 7:05 PM ET Miami -107 500
Philadelphia - Under 8 500

Arizona - 10:05 PM ET Arizona -132 500
San Diego - Under 6.5 500

Pittsburgh - 10:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +125 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7 500

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 12:37 PM

Rose could return Thursday vs. Miami

MIAMI HEAT (40-16)

at CHICAGO BULLS (44-14)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -1½, Total: 186½

The Bulls could have Derrick Rose back with a chance to all but officially wrap up the top seed in the East when they host Miami on Thursday night.

Rose, who on Sunday returned from a 12-game absence due to a groin injury only to injure his ankle and sit out Tuesday night, is considered a game-time decision (he tried to talk his way into the lineup for Tuesday’s win over the Knicks, and practiced on Wednesday). But Chicago actually beat the Heat without Rose when the teams met in Chicago one month ago. Who will win this powerhouse matchup? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is a profitable 24-15 ATS (62%) since March 28.

The Heat fell to Boston for the second time in 10 days on Tuesday, giving them losses in two of their past three (all at home). James (26.9 PPG on 53.3% FG, 7.9 RPG, 6.4 APG) has been as dominant as ever of late, averaging 30.2 PPG on 51.9% FG in six April games. But the rest of the Heat are faltering. SG Dwyane Wade (22.6 PPG, 49.7% FG) has been dealing with a couple of nagging injuries, missing two of the past five games. And when he’s been on the court, the fatigue has shown, as he’s averaging just 18.5 PPG on 40.5% FG over his four April games.

PF Chris Bosh (17.9 PPG, 7.7 RPG) is slumping horribly as well. He’s averaging 14.5 PPG on just 38.6% FG in six games this month. Bosh was miserable in their last visit to Chicago, scoring 12 points on 3-for-15 shooting. And PG Mario Chalmers (10.0 PPG) is no longer taking advantage of the wide-open looks he gets playing alongside the Big Three. After hitting 51.2% FG and 45.6% of his threes in the first half of the season, he’s shooting 37.9% FG and 30.8% from three since the All-Star break. This two-star FoxSheets trend backs the Heat:

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - off a upset loss as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (182-124 since 1996.) (59.5%, +45.6 units. Rating = 2*).

The Bulls got another quality win without Rose (23.0 PPG, 7.9 APG) on Tuesday, beating a Knicks team that had topped them with Rose two days earlier. SG Richard Hamilton (11.2 PPG) had one of his best performances of the season, going for 20 points in 21 minutes. SF Luol Deng (15.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG) also had a nice shooting night after struggling for a while, scoring 19 on 7-for-15 shooting from the field and 3-for-6 from three.

When the Bulls knocked off Miami without Rose one month ago, it was PG John Lucas (7.0 PPG) coming off the bench and starring, scoring 24 points on 9-for-12 FG and 3-for-5 from three in 27 minutes. The Bulls have actually been beaten by Miami five times in a row SU (1-4 ATS) when Rose has been in the lineup. Rose averaged 24.6 PPG, but shot just 34.1% FG in those games. This two-star FoxSheets trend supports the Bulls:

CHICAGO is 49-27 ATS (64.5%, +19.3 Units) after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 97.6, OPPONENT 88.9 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 12:47 PM

Mavs begin road trip Thursday in Oakland

DALLAS MAVERICKS (32-26)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (22-34)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -5½, Total: 195

The Mavericks begin a crucial four-game road trip Thursday night when they visit a reeling Golden State team.

The Warriors will be playing their fifth game in seven days when the Mavericks come to town on Thursday night. This kind of schedule can wear on a team, especially one that has lost nine of 11 SU and is missing its top guard Stephen Curry (ankle). But the Warriors have won the past two meetings, including a 111-87 blowout in their last matchup on March 10. Can the Mavs start out their road trip with a big victory? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is a profitable 24-15 ATS (62%) since March 28.

Dallas has not been a great road team this season, going 11-16 SU (13-14 ATS) away from home. The offense is scoring just 92.6 PPG on the road, failing to reach 90 points in three of the past five road games. But the team played with great energy in Tuesday’s 110-100 win over Sacramento, its first game without SF Lamar Odom, who is no longer with the team after he and management decided to part ways.

PF Dirk Nowitzki scored a team-high tying 15 points in just 29 minutes against the Kings, but was just 4-of-14 from the field. That makes him 9-of-30 FG in his past two games. However, he’s been nearly automatic from the foul line in his past 10 contests (62-for-66, 94%) to give him a strong 21.8 PPG and 6.8 RPG in this span. PG Jason Kidd is finally healthy after missing four games with a strained groin. He produced a solid seven points, seven assists and six rebounds in Tuesday’s victory. PF Brandan Wright continues to flourish with more minutes, averaging 12.7 PPG on 61% FG with 5.0 RPG in his past three contests. And after suffering through a prolonged shooting slump to close out March and to begin April, SG Jason Terry is starting to heat up with 14.3 PPG (10-of-19 threes) and 6.0 APG in his past three contests. This two-star FoxSheets trend supports the Mavericks:

DALLAS is 38-19 ATS (66.7%, +17.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 101.0, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Golden State has been a much better bet on the road (18-11 ATS) than at home (13-15 ATS) this season. Although the Warriors score 99.7 PPG on 47% FG (38% threes) at home, they also allow 100.5 PPG on 45% FG (36% threes) to visiting teams. Although Golden State has not been winning games SU, the squad is 8-4 ATS in its past 12 contests.

PF David Lee continues to carry this team since Monta Ellis was traded and Stephen Curry hurt his ankle, which has kept Curry off the court since March 11. Lee scored 21 points with 14 rebounds in Wednesday’s 118-100 loss to Portland. Lee now has 23.2 PPG (49% FG) and 8.7 RPG in his past 10 contests, eclipsing 20 points in eight of those 10 games. PG Nate Robinson also had a big game against the Blazers, coming off the bench to score 19 points and dish out eight assists. Robinson has 16.3 PPG (56% FG) and 6.7 APG in his past three contests. This FoxSheets trend thinks the Warriors will win ATS:

GOLDEN STATE is 121-88 ATS (57.9%, +24.2 Units) in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game since 1996. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.4, OPPONENT 102.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 12:54 PM

Marlins-Phillies close 3-game set Thursday

MIAMI MARLINS (2-4)

at PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (2-3)

First pitch: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -110, Philadelphia +100, Total: 8

The Phillies and Marlins will play the rubber match of their three-game set, with the Fish entering the game as slight favorites on the road.

Left-hander Mark Buehrle lost but pitched well in his Miami debut, allowing just two runs in six innings of duty. His opponent Joe Blanton has yet to start a game but did not look good allowing one run in less than an inning of relief duty against Pittsburgh, surrendering two hits while recording that many outs. While it may seem like an uneven pitching matchup, Blanton has always found his best stuff against the Marlins, with a 6-2 record and 3.33 ERA in nine career starts, striking out 52 in 54 innings. Although Buehrle is 3-0 against the Phillies in his three career starts, his 5.06 ERA against the team won’t cut it in this game. Look for Hunter Pence, who notched hits in six of his past 13 times at the plate, to continue his hot streak against a southpaw in Buehrle—Pence had a .990 OPS against lefties in 2011. Take PHILADELPHIA as home underdogs to win.

This strong FoxSheets trend also favors the Phillies:

PHILADELPHIA is 140-70 (66.7%, +38.6 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.9, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 1*).

The Phillies bats finally broke out in the second game of the series, notching a 7-1 victory for the team’s second win of the season. But they will look for their first win Thursday in a game Roy Halladay is not starting. The best sign for the bats is that their breakout performance (seven runs on 14 hits) came against one of baseball’s best pitcher’s, Josh Johnson. Notching 14 hits as a team, Pence went 3-of-4, while Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz all gathered two hits. With Chase Utley and Ryan Howard injured, Philadelphia will need its lineup to continue producing like that top to bottom, something they may be able to do against a southpaw who pitches to contact.

Whereas the Phillies excelled against a top pitcher, the Marlins floundered, registering just five hits as a team. Jose Reyes went 0-for-4 and needs to start acting like the table-setter he was paid to be this offseason—he has yet to draw a walk this season, something unacceptable for a leadoff hitter. The Marlins currently have the third lowest OBP in baseball (.265), something that must change if they are to live up to their hype this year. Look for Blanton to take advantage of Miami’s lack of patience (8 BB, 44 K) and give the Phillies the series win.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 06:10 PM

Thursday's NBA Best Bets:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/11/12 13-*9-*0 59.09% +*1550 Detail
04/10/12 6-*6-*0 50.00% -*300 Detail
04/09/12 8-*12-*0 40.00% -*2600 Detail
04/08/12 4-*9-*1 30.77% -*2950 Detail
04/07/12 11-*7-*0 61.11% +*1650 Detail
04/06/12 14-*8-*0 63.64% +*2600 Detail
04/05/12 0-*3-*1 0.00% -*1650 Detail
04/04/12 7-*6-*1 53.85% +*200 Detail
04/03/12 8-*8-*0 50.00% -*400 Detail
04/02/12 6-*4-*0 60.00% +*800 Detail
04/01/12 4-*12-*0 25.00% -*4600 Detail

Totals 81-*84-*3 49.09% -*5700

Thursday, April 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +5 500
Charlotte - Over 190 500

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Miami +1.5 500
Chicago - Over 186 500

L.A. Clippers - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +7.5 500
Minnesota - Under 194.5 500

Memphis - 8:30 PM ET San Antonio -5.5 500
San Antonio - Under 196.5 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +6.5 500
Golden State - Under 196.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 06:19 PM

Hoop Trends - Thursday

April 12, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Heat are 13-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since March 21, 2007 on the road after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bulls are 0-10-1 OU (-11.4 ppg) since November 11, 2010 at home after a game in which they blocked at least 10 shots.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Spurs are 0-8 OU (-16.8 ppg) since January 17, 2009 with no rest after a loss in which Tony Parker played fewer than 30 minutes.

CHOICE TREND:

The Bobcats are 0-13 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 11, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Grizzlies are 0-10 OU (-12.4 ppg) since February 16, 2001 with no rest after a double digit home win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

The Timberwolves are 8-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since December 10, 2008 with no rest after a loss in which Kevin Love scored fewer than 10 points.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-12-2012, 06:25 PM

Games to Watch

April 12, 2012

Miami at Chicago

Derrick Rose has already missed more games than any reigning MVP in league history besides Bill Walton, who sat out an entire season due to a contract dispute after being named the NBA's best in 1978. A nagging right ankle injury suffered Sunday in New York has replaced an ailing groin as his current obstacle, but he did participate in practice Wednesday and expects to play in this Eastern Conference showdown against the Heat barring any setbacks. His status is ‘probable.’

The Bulls have basically fielded two separate teams without Rose readily available, but have been nearly as successful in his absence. Entering Thursday, Chicago is 16-7 without Rose as opposed to a 28-7 mark when he's been out there running the show.

The Heat have seen both versions, beating a Rose-led squad at home 97-93 on Jan. 29 and losing in Chicago when third-stringer John Lucas relieved replacement C.J. Watson and dropped 24 points in 27 minutes on March 14.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra and his team expect to see a full-strength Bulls squad in a barometer game to see where the Eastern Conference front-runners stand with two weeks remaining in the regular season. The good news for the Heat is that they beat a team featuring Rose and Richard Hamilton in that first meeting. The bad news is that victory came at home and required Rose missing a pair of free throws and potentially game-tying jumper in the final 22 seconds.

Dwyane Wade, still not at 100 percent after missing Sunday's win over Detroit with a bum ankle, scored 36 points to complement LeBron James' 35-point outburst in last month's loss. The win fed Chicago's confidence that it can succeed even when its defense fails to clamp down on Miami's stars, holding the supporting cast to 8-for-34 shooting. The Bulls out-rebounded the Heat, 50-34, which is a major factor in why an EC Finals that went 4-1 in Miami's favor last May can be reversed should the teams meet again.

Omer Asik fractured his left fibula in a 103-82 rout that wound up being Chicago's only win in the series, curbing his team's biggest advantage over the Heat: size. He's now healthy and teaming with Taj Gibson behind starters Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, combining to give the Bulls a quartet of rim-protectors to handle the boards and discourage Wade and James from attacking the paint.

Miami is still scrambling to find the right combination of bigs opposite Chris Bosh, who comes in looking to atone for a 3-for-15 night that cost his team dearly in the Mar. 14 loss. Ronny Turiaf has replaced Joel Anthony as starting center, but you can expect the heat's slumping top shot blocker to re-emerge ahead of Juwan Howard, Eddy Curry and Dexter Pittman, Miami's other interior options.

Spoelstra will undoubtedly use this game to take a long look at his potential big rotation after going small in Tuesday's 115-107 loss to Boston. With the size edge in Chicago's favor, Miami needs Wade to be his normal aggressive self to keep the surging James from seeing constant blitzes designed to get the ball out of his hands.

The Heat have dropped two of their last three home games and are playing just their second road trip this month. They've won just once in their last four road games. The Bulls have notched huge wins at the United Center over New York and Boston in their last two outings and are 7-1 at home against Eastern Conference opposition since the All-Star break.

The Bulls have been installed as 1 ½-point favorites, while the total is hovering between 186 and 187 points.

Memphis at San Antonio

Gregg Popovich supplies the major variable here and dropping no hints as to what he's going to do with tonight's rotation. After casting aside San Antonio's 11-game win streak by sidelining Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili in Monday's loss at Utah, the leading candidate for NBA Coach of the Year honors was unpleasantly surprised by his entire team unexpectedly taking the night off in a 98-84 loss to the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers on Wednesday.

L.A. led from virtually start to finish, going up by as much as 26 points and holding the Spurs to just nine free-throw attempts and one offensive rebound while winning the battle of the boards, 60-33. Andrew Bynum, grabbed a season-high 30 rebounds, nearly matching San Antonio's entire total.

Can the Spurs flip the switch back on? Most important, how vital is it to Popovich that they do so?

Because the Lakers loss was so lopsided, no one played more than 27 minutes or expended much energy. Still, the Spurs are in a stretch of eight games in 11 days and show no signs of being concerned with staying in the race with Oklahoma City for the Western Conference's top seed and homecourt advantage that comes with it.

By contrast, the Grizzlies have won seven of eight games and are counting on earning a top-four seed and continuing their current surge. Memphis has beaten the Thunder, Mavericks, Heat, Clippers and Suns, all teams with winning records, since the month began. They've done it without stopper Tony Allen, who continues to sit as a nasty facial injury suffered after catching an errant elbow from teammate O.J. Mayo on April 4.

Clearly, sense of urgency will be the key to determining a winner at the AT&T Center, but don't put it past the Spurs pulling out a convincing win if Popovich is committed fielding a full squad. Memphis memorably eliminated top-seeded San Antonio in last year's playoffs, but the Spurs have clearly found an extra gear for this season's meetings, sweeping the first three encounters.

It must be noted that Zach Randolph only played in the season opener, where he was a shell of himself due to poor conditioning. Randoph missed the games in Memphis on Jan. 30 and Feb. 8 as a result of a knee injury that has cost him much of the season, but he's really hit his stride over the past four games while coming off the bench. Following last night's 17-point, nine-rebound output in a win over Phoenix, Randolph is averaging 14 points and 11.5 boards, looking like the difference-maker he was in overwhelming the Spurs frontcourt during last year's playoff shocker.

It remains to be seen whether Popovich seeks out a measuring stick game or is continues to take the cautious approach with his roster. San Antonio opened as a 5 ½-point home favorite but that number could dip based on the personnel the Spurs suit up. Even though the Grizz hold the braggin’ rights from last year’s postseason, San Antonio has won and covered all three meetings this season with the last encounter coming on Feb. 6.

The Grizzlies’ offense put up 104 points in last night’s victory over Phoenix, which snapped a nine-game run to the ‘under.’ Tonight’s total is listed between 196 and 197 at most shops, which could be surprising since the ‘under’ cashed in all of the first three meetings.

Final Four Favorites

East: Chicago vs. Miami
An Eastern Conference finals rematch has been in the cards since the moment the lockout was finally resolved.

West: Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio
Thunder GM Sam Presti learned the craft by climbing the ladder in San Antonio and built the Thunder with the Spurs model of consistency in mind, so it will be ironic that his team's second crack at an NBA Finals would go through them.

Playoff Sleepers: Boston, Memphis
The Celtics just got Mickael Pietrus back and seem to be carving out defined roles that agree with them. Making one last run offers great motivation. The Grizzlies have elite size and championship-caliber defense. With Rudy Gay in the mix to play closer, the Western Conference has another small-market team threatening to rise to power.

Announcement

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB - NBA !

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets MLB - NBA !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment