Announcement

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:31 AM

Wednesday's betting tips: Lakers can't cover without Kobe

Weather to watch

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies – 19 mph winds are expected to be blowing out to left-center with a game time temperature of 69 degrees.

Who’s hot

NHL: Vancouver has won eight of its last nine.

NHL: Pittsburgh is 21-7 in its last 28 games as a favorite.

NBA: San Antonio is 24-8-3 against the spread in its last 35.

NBA: The over is 8-3 in Utah’s last 11 road games.

MLB: Detroit is 41-11 in its last 52 games when Justin Verlander is starting.

Who’s not

NHL: Detroit is 1-7 in its last eight road games.

NHL: Philadelphia is 2-7 in its last nine games as an underdog.

NBA: The L.A. Lakers are 5-16 against the spread in its last 21 games overall and have dropped nine of 10 against the number - including their last two without injured star Kobe Bryant.

NBA: Utah has covered twice in its last eight games.

MLB: The home team is 4-10 in Bob Davidson’s last 14 games calling balls and strikes. Davidson is scheduled to work Wednesday’s Giants-Rockies game.

Key stat

.329 – The Detroit Tigers are the only undefeated team left in the American League and leads bigs with a .329 team batting average. They’ve produced 31 runs through their first four games of the year – tied with St. Louis for No. 1 in the majors.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers – Bryant has been ruled out of his third consecutive game with a sore shin. Bryant is putting up 28.1 points and 4.6 assists per game. Oddsmakers have yet to set a line for L.A.’s matchup against San Antonio.

Game of the day

Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8, 196.5)

Notable quotable

"(Monday) was about as bad as we could play as a team. It was just one of those days where when you play an 82, or in this case a 66-game season, it's going to happen. It's the unfortunate part of being in the NBA is nights like this. It's one of the worst feelings in the world." - Golden State’s David Lee after the Warriors were hammered 123-84 by Denver on Monday. The Warriors visit Portland Wednesday.

Notes and tips

Arkansas has fired coach Bobby Petrino and terminated his contract with cause on Tuesday following a scandal involving a 25-year-old female football program employee. Petrino was suspended and placed on paid administrative leave last Thursday night in the wake of new information regarding his motorcycle crash on April 1. Assistant coach Taver Johnson has been put in charge of the program through spring practice while Petrino was suspended.

Philadelphia Flyers center Danny Briere returned to practice and will likely return for Wednesday's Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal series versus the Atlantic Division rival Pittsburgh Penguins. Briere has been sidelined with a back injury after being blasted by a shot from Pittsburgh's Joe Vitale in the waning moments of Philadelphia's 6-4 win on April 1. The 34-year-old Briere has collected 16 goals, 33 assists and 69 penalty minutes this season.

New York Mets third baseman David Wright suffered a broken right pinkie and did not play in Tuesday's game against the National League East rival Washington Nationals. X-rays showed a small fracture in the finger and the team later noted that it will be placed in a splint. Surgery is not required for the injury, and Wright will re-evaluated on Wednesday. Wright has gotten off to a strong start this season, belting one homer while recording at least one hit in every game.

Los Angeles Kings forward Jeff Carter returned to practice Monday and says he'll be ready for the team's Western Conference playoff opener Wednesday against the Vancouver Canucks. Carter missed the final five games of the regular season with a deep bone bruise in his ankle. The 27-year-old said he would "for sure" be ready to play Game 1 on Wednesday. Carter had six goals and three assists in 16 games since being acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets in February.

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:32 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

-- First two names suggested to replace Bobby Petrino at Arkansas are Tommy Bowden and Gus Malzahn.

-- Baylor got good news: Quincy Miller will be back for his sophomore season. Good news for Miller too. Leaving too early can be a disaster.

-- Loyola Greyhound basketball coach Jimmy Patsos threw out the first ball before the Orioles game last night.
-- Duquesne hired LIU coach Ferry, who was replaced from
within by the Blackbirds. Ferry did an excellent job at LIU, but Duquesne is in a tough league. Ron Everhart is a good coach who couldn't get it done there. .

-- Guy named Greg Shaheen is out as head of the NCAA tournament, it is rare to hear of a guy who is loved by both coaches/media. Politics can be a ridiculously petty thing, and it appears that Shaheen got hosed.

-- David Wright has a broken bone in the pinky on his throwing hand; he will wear a splint until further notice.

**************

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Random midweek thoughts........

13) PG Burke is coming back to Michigan next year; Watford/Zeller are both coming back to Indiana, great news for those teams, both of whom figure to be in the top 15 in November. The Big Dozen got lot tougher with those two announcements.

12) Utah Jazz signed Blake Ahearn from the D-League; Ahearn is one of the greatest shooters of all-time (seriously, he is).

11) Mets are 4-1, but 1B Ike Davis is 0-15, and the team’s crack medical staff is wondering if Davis is still suffering from jungle fever. Davis was given Tuesday night off, with the Nationals starting lefty Detwiler. Facing Strasburg this afternoon ain't going to help any.

10) Baseball schedule will be much different next year, with the Astros moving to the AL West, and both leagues having 15 teams. There will be at least one interleague series going on at all times.

9) Former St John’s coach Norm Roberts left the Florida staff to go back to work for old friend Bill Self; Roberts fills Danny Manning’s opening, after Manning became head coach at Tulsa.

8) Texas Tech won the national title in chess last two years; who knew? Their whole team all returns next year to defend their title, but they'll be doing it at a different school.

Webster University in St Louis offered them all full scholarships, so the kids and their coach bolted Tech for the Gateway City, and even better, they don’t have to sit out a year like football/basketball players would. The seven chess wizards are all international kids, coming from Iran, Germany, Israel, Brazil, Azerbaijan and Hungary, so moving from Lubbock to St Louis is no big deal to them.

If this happened with a basketball team, it would be a huge national story. Chess? Well, I wonder if the people at Texas Tech think they got rooked.

7) Arkansas fired Bobby Petrino, which means a top 25 college football job is open. You don't see football jobs open up at this time of the year, so it'll be interesting to see how they go about replacing Petrino.

6) My question is this: Does the woman involved get fired too?

5) Ian Kinsler got five years, $75M from the Rangers; only people happier than Kinsler and his agent are Robinson Cano and his agent; Cano is a free agent this winter. Throw in Brandon Phillips getting $72M for six years from the Reds, and it’s a great day to play second base.

4) Washington Huskies’ two-year starter Colin Porter has had to give up football; U-Dub’s offensive line is so messed up right now they’re not sure if the Huskies will hold a spring game, lest their QB or RBs get hurt, too.

3) Former Buccaneer RB Mike Alstott was an assistant coach LY at St Pete Catholic; this fall, he’ll be the head coach at Northside Christian School in the Tampa Bay area.

2) Rams’ coaching staff will have several second generation coaches; John Fassel is the special teams coordinator, assisted by Paul Boudreau Jr, whose dad is the Rams’ OL coach. In addition, the sons of Jeff Fisher/Gregg Williams are also on staff, on the defensive side of the ball.

1) So the Reds just shelled out close to $300M to secure the right side of their infield for the next six years. Next question, and a more important one: Are they developing any pitchers?, because for sure they won’t be able to sign any decent free agent pitchers to work in that bandbox they call home. Its critical that some pitchers come up thru their farm system.

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:33 AM

NHL
Dunkel

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
The Flyers look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 meetings in Pittsburgh. Philadelphia is the pick (+150) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 11

Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.561; Pittsburgh 11.814
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+150); Over

Game 53-54: Detroit at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.960; Nashville 11.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over

Game 55-56: Los Angeles at Vancouver (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.461; Vancouver 12.679
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-165); Under

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:34 AM

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 11

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PHILADELPHIA (47-26-0-9, 103 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (51-25-0-6, 108 pts.) - 4/11/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 15-4 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak this season.
PITTSBURGH is 18-3 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-15 ATS (+39.5 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 57-78 ATS (-30.4 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
PITTSBURGH is 27-34 ATS (-36.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 9-9 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 9-9-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)

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DETROIT (48-28-0-6, 102 pts.) at NASHVILLE (48-26-0-8, 104 pts.) - 4/11/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (-9.6 Units) in road games after a division game this season.
NASHVILLE is 47-34 ATS (+1.1 Units) in all games this season.
NASHVILLE is 28-16 ATS (+1.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
NASHVILLE is 16-8 ATS (+5.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
NASHVILLE is 26-19 ATS (+45.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 9-9 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 9-9-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (40-27-0-15, 95 pts.) at VANCOUVER (51-22-0-9, 111 pts.) - 4/11/2012, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 39-42 ATS (-14.5 Units) in all games this season.
VANCOUVER is 13-1 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 22-5 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
VANCOUVER is 191-177 ATS (-86.8 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 11-7 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 11-7-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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Thursday, April 12

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OTTAWA (41-31-0-10, 92 pts.) at NY RANGERS (51-24-0-7, 109 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY RANGERS are 51-30 ATS (+84.9 Units) in all games this season.
NY RANGERS are 26-13 ATS (+9.8 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 16-10 ATS (+26.5 Units) after allowing 4 goals or more this season.
NY RANGERS are 164-173 ATS (-92.3 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 24-32 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
NY RANGERS are 77-107 ATS (-83.1 Units) in home games after allowing 4 goals or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 6-6 (+2.0 Units) against the spread versus NY RANGERS over the last 3 seasons
NY RANGERS is 6-6-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.0 Units)

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WASHINGTON (42-32-0-8, 92 pts.) at BOSTON (49-29-0-4, 102 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 16-4 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 26-12 ATS (+5.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 18-19 ATS (-13.4 Units) in home games after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 7-5 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 7-5-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.2 Units)

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SAN JOSE (43-29-0-10, 96 pts.) at ST LOUIS (49-22-0-11, 109 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN JOSE is 43-39 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games this season.
SAN JOSE is 6-14 ATS (-10.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is 5 or less this season.
SAN JOSE is 10-18 ATS (-12.5 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.
SAN JOSE is 5-11 ATS (-10.4 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.
SAN JOSE is 16-21 ATS (-15.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
ST LOUIS is 77-57 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 100-61 ATS (+24.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
SAN JOSE is 160-171 ATS (+367.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 6-6 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 6-6-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.0 Units)

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CHICAGO (45-26-0-11, 101 pts.) at PHOENIX (42-27-0-13, 97 pts.) - 4/12/2012, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in road games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 137-119 ATS (-17.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHOENIX is 188-163 ATS (+20.8 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
PHOENIX is 19-7 ATS (+26.1 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 25-20 ATS (+2.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO is 310-329 ATS (+696.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
PHOENIX is 8-16 ATS (+24.1 Units) in home games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 8-4 (+6.6 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 8-4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.1 Units)

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Friday, April 13

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NEW JERSEY (48-28-0-6, 102 pts.) at FLORIDA (38-26-0-18, 94 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 48-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW JERSEY is 27-18 ATS (+6.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
NEW JERSEY is 22-13 ATS (+35.6 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
NEW JERSEY is 15-7 ATS (+22.0 Units) after a win by 2 goals or more this season.
NEW JERSEY is 15-8 ATS (+6.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
NEW JERSEY is 27-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 80-118 ATS (+212.7 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5 or less since 1996.
FLORIDA is 32-58 ATS (+104.9 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 2-11 ATS (+13.1 Units) on Friday nights this season.
FLORIDA is 8-21 ATS (+32.1 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA is 6-6 (+1.5 Units) against the spread versus NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA is 6-6-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.5 Units)

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PHILADELPHIA (47-26-0-9, 103 pts.) at PITTSBURGH (51-25-0-6, 108 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 9-9 (+0.6 Units) against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 9-9-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+1.6 Units)

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DETROIT (48-28-0-6, 102 pts.) at NASHVILLE (48-26-0-8, 104 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 7:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 9-9 (+1.8 Units) against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 9-9-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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LOS ANGELES (40-27-0-15, 95 pts.) at VANCOUVER (51-22-0-9, 111 pts.) - 4/13/2012, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 11-7 (+1.3 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 11-7-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+3.6 Units)

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**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:34 AM

NHL
Short Sheet

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

EC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 7:35 ET NBCSN
Philadelphia: 12-3 SU away off a road loss
Pittsburgh: 2-7 SU off BB division games

WC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Detroit at Nashville, 8:05 ET CNBC
Detroit: 30-12 SU off BB home games
Nashville: 2-8 SU off a road win scoring 4+ goals

WC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Los Angeles at Vancouver, 10:35 ET NBCSN
Los Angeles: 21-9 Under off BB division losses
Vancouver: 17-4 SU off a combined score of 4 goals or less

Thursday, April 12, 2012

EC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Ottawa at NY Rangers, 7:05 ET NHL
Ottawa: 15-6 Over off a road loss by 2+ goals
NY Rangers: 15-3 SU after losing 3 of their last 4 games

EC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Washington at Boston, 7:35 ET NBCSN
Washington: 27-12 SU off an Over
Boston: 2-8 SU off an overtime win

WC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
San Jose at St. Louis, 7:35 ET CNBC
San Jose: 6-14 SU away with a total of 5 goals or less
St. Louis: 19-2 SU at home off a win

WC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
Chicago at Phoenix, 10:05 ET NBCSN
Chicago: 7-16 SU away playing with same-season revenge
Phoenix: 19-7 SU off 3+ wins

Friday, April 13, 2012

EC Quaterfinals, Game One (0-0)
New Jersey at Florida, 7:05 ET NHL
New Jersey: 17-5 SU playing with same-season revenge
Florida: 8-21 SU playing with 3+ days rest

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:35 AM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 11

Flyers @ Penguins-- Philly is 0-6 in Stanley Cup finals since winning titles in both '74/'75; they've won five of last seven first round series. Flyers won four of six vs Pittsburgh this year, with four of last five going over total- they're 5-1 in last six games in Igloo, 47-58 overall. Four of Penguins' last six playoff series went to a 7th game; they're 28-90 lifetime in Philly. Pittsburgh split their last four first round series. Flyers are 3-2 in playoff series against Pittsburgh; they won seven of last nine games overall. Penguins won four of last five.

Red Wings @ Predators-- Nashville got its first playoff series win in franchise history LY, beating Ducks in six games; they've played Detroit two other times in playoffs, losing in six games both times. Detroit won in first round six of last seven years- they're 25-11 at home vs Predators, 18-17 in Music City. Wings lost four of last six games overall; Nashville won four of last five, allowing total of three goals in the four wins. Teams split six meetings this year, with Preds winning last two. Detroit four of last six visits to Nashville.

Kings @ Canucks-- Vancouver won Presidents' Cup last two years; they won last four first round series. These teams split four playoff series over the years, are 4-4 in regular season series last two years, with under 7-0-1 in those eight games; they split last six played here. LA hasn't won playoff series since 2001; they're 1-5 in first round series since losing in '93 Finals. Kings lost five of last eight games overall; Canucks won eight of last nine games, have won seven in a row at home. This has been a very even series over the years.

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:35 AM

NHL

Wednesday, April 11

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home

8:00 PM
DETROIT vs. NASHVILLE
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Nashville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Nashville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games

10:30 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. VANCOUVER
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games when playing on the road against Vancouver
Vancouver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Vancouver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles

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**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:37 AM

NHL

Wednesday, April 11

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Ice picks: Wednesday's best NHL bets
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Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins (-170, 5.5)

Any way you slice this series, it looks like it’s going to be a long one.

Considering how much these teams dislike each other and the firepower on both benches, it might end up being the best series in the opening round.

"There's guys on there that you don't like that are obviously some of the best players in the league," Scott Hartnell said. "You see them on the highlights every night and it annoys you. For us to win this series, we're going to have (to) hold those guys down. I don't think you have to look very hard to get your blood boiling."

This is playoff hockey now, so we’re unlikely to see the fights and misconducts we’ve become used to with these teams, but there will be power play opportunities – and goals.

Pittsburgh had played over in 10 straight games before its 4-2 regular season finale win over the Flyers pushed the 6-goal total.

Pick: Over

Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators (-130, 5)

The Red Wings and Predators rested some of their big guns down the stretch to get ready for this series, but one player who was just getting into the swing of things was Alexander Radulov.

In nine games since coming back from the KHL, Radulov has three goals and seven points. He’s the type of scoring threat that’s going to give Detroit some problems.

"He was a star, best player in the league back there. I'm pretty sure he'll be here soon, too [as a star]," Detroit’s Jiri Hudler said Monday. "I think it'll help him that he came right after the season. He played a lot of minutes back home."

Nashville finished the regular season with four wins in its last five games, including a 4-1 victory in Detroit. Riding that momentum, you have to like the Preds to strike first blood in the series.

Pick: Predators

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**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:38 AM

NHL

Monday, April 9

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NHL Western Conference playoffs: Round 1 preview and picks
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No. 1 Vancouver Canucks vs. No. 8 Los Angeles Kings

The Canucks have picked the right time to play their best hockey. Vancouver earned its second consecutive President’s Trophy by winning eight of its last 10 games, allowing just 16 goals over that stretch.

The two clubs split the season series, with the Kings out-shooting the Canucks in three of the four games. The Kings’ penalty kill was the fourth best in the league but will be tested by the fourth-most dangerous power play.

Daniel Sedin’s status for this series remains up in the air. There have been reports that Sedin is skating by himself and that he will likely return in the first round. Goaltender Roberto Luongo will start the playoffs for the Canucks but the team won’t hesitate to turn to Cory Schneider, who finished the season with a 1.96 GAA and a .937 save percentage.

Anze Kopitar and Co. have been struggling offensively all season and if that doesn’t change they won’t have a shot at stopping the Canucks.

Season Series: Vancouver (2-1-1), Los Angeles (2-2)

Series prediction: Canucks in six games

No. 2 St. Louis Blues vs. No. 7 San Jose Sharks

St. Louis dominated a number of teams this season and the San Jose Sharks were no exceptions. The Blues won all four meetings between the two clubs, shutting them out twice and outscoring the Sharks 11-3.

The Blues are by far the stingiest club in the league allowing just 165 goals which lead to Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott sharing the William Jennings Trophy. But Ken Hitchcock’s club isn’t exactly riding a high heading into the playoffs. The Blues dropped four of their last five games allowing the Canucks to lock up the top spot in the Western Conference.

San Jose swept home-and-home series with both Dallas and Los Angeles to secure seventh place in the West but has been far too inconsistent in 2012. The bottom line in this series is that the Blues are simply too good on home ice (30-6-1-4) for the Sharks to have a legitimate shot of winning four games.

Season Series: St. Louis (4-0), San Jose (0-4)

Series prediction: Blues in five games

No. 3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. No. 6 Chicago Blackhawks

You won’t find a goaltender playing better than the Coyotes’ Mike Smith. Smith allowed just two goals in his last five games, powering the Coyotes to their first division title.

"He's embraced the No. 1 goaltender role with our team and he's played excellent," Phoenix head coach Dave Tippett told reporters. "He had a few games there where he was basically willing us into the playoffs. His game is top-notch right now. Hopefully it goes into the playoffs and that continues."

Smith won all three games he started against the Blackhawks this season. Chicago picked up a victory the one time they faced backup Jason Labarbera.

At the other end of the ice, bettors will likely see both Corey Crawford and Ray Emery at some point. Chicago finished 22nd in goals against but relied on a lethal offense to finish sixth in the conference.

Chicago captain Jonathan Toews missed the final 22 games of the regular season with a concussion and, at this point, there are no guarantees he returns for this series.

Season Series: Phoenix (3-1), Chicago (2-2)

Series prediction: Coyotes in six games

No. 4 Nashville Predators vs. No. 5 Detroit Red Wings

While it wasn’t confirmed until the Red Wings picked up a point against the Blackhawks Saturday, everyone had been expecting to see this matchup for the past month.

It was critical for the Predators to finish fourth in the West and keep the Red Wings away from home-ice advantage. Detroit has the worst road record (17-21-2-1) of any playoff team. The Predators are a respectable 26-10-2-3 at home.

Shea Weber’s heavy shot anchors the deadliest power-play unit in the league, firing at a 21.6-percent clip. Late-season addition Alexander Radulov has made the power play even more dangerous with seven points in nine games since joining the team.

The Red Wings lead the league in even-strength goals, with a 1.44 for/against ratio. If the two sides stay out of the penalty box, Detroit could have the advantage. It also has much more playoff experience than the Predators.

Much like the rest of this series, the goaltenders are evenly matched. Pekka Rinne had a league-best 43 wins during the regular season but Jimmy Howard’s GAA was significantly better with their save percentages looking nearly identical.

Season Series: Nashville (3-3), Detroit (3-3)

Series prediction: Predators in seven games

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**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:38 AM

NHL

Monday, April 9

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NHL Eastern Conference playoffs: Round 1 preview and picks
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No. 1 New York Rangers (-900) vs. No. 8 Ottawa Senators (+550)

The Rangers didn’t secure the Presidents’ Trophy on the season’s final night. But when that’s the worst thing you can say about a team, they’ve had a pretty good year.

New York has the best goaltender in the game, Henrik Lundqvist (39-18-5), a fiery coach who has already won the Stanley Cup before, John Tortorella, and home-ice advantage over 14 of the 15 playoff teams in the tournament.

For now, it’s about stepping up, shaking off a slow finish and burying a team that, while talented, is truly in that “happy to be here” mode. Ottawa has gifted goal scorers in Milan Michalek (35), Jason Spezza (34), and Daniel Alfredsson (32) and a scoring machine on the backline in Erik Karlsson (78 points).

But this series is probably a little out of the Senators’ rent district. Ottawa lost three in a row to end the season and, though it had its way in the season series, the second season is a whole new game. Look for a big series from New York forward Marian Gaborik (76 points), who had three goals in his final five games.

Season series: 3-1 for the Senators

Pick: Rangers in five games

No. 2 Boston Bruins (-425) vs. No. 7 Washington Capitals (+320)

Braden Holtby, this is your life. The Capitals' third-string goaltender will be pressed into duty against the Stanley Cup champions, who just happen to have six players with 20 or more goals. No pressure there for a kid who was just 4-2-1 this season.

That’s the way the Bruins won it all last year. Without a true superstar up front, Boston coach Claude Julien threw out layer upon layer of depth, combined it with tremendous goaltending and, 25 games later, the Cup was theirs.

It will be more difficult this time. The East is better than it was last season - the Rangers are more experienced, the Penguins are healthier, the Devils are back, and the Flyers have a goaltender - so things likely won't break the way they did for Beantown last spring.

But the Capitals burned up an awful lot of fuel just making it to the postseason. And though Alex Ovechkin (38 goals) is streaking into the tournament, he doesn't have the playoff resume to pull off an upset here, especially with Washington's questions in net. The Capitals will put up a good fight but the Bruins should at least get out of Round 1.

Season series: 3-1 for the Capitals

Pick: Bruins in seven games

No. 3 Florida Panthers (+160) vs. No. 6 New Jersey Devils (-200)

There are plenty of ties to both sides and plenty of incentive, as well. New Jersey coach Peter DeBoer was let go by Florida a year ago. And Florida center John Madden and backup goaltender Scott Clemmensen are Devils’ castoffs. So, while it may not be the most glamorous matchup, it has its interesting storylines.

Florida is a gift No. 3 seed, by virtue of winning the subpar Southeast Division and New Jersey, with six wins to end the year, could be the hottest team in the East. But it goes beyond that. DeBoer has made the most of his average defense and allowed goaltender Martin Brodeur (31-21-4) and a stable of skilled forwards - Ilya Kovalchuk (83 points), Zach Parise (31 goals), Patrik Elias (78 points), and David Clarkson (30 goals) - to carry the club.

And while Florida can boast a great season out of goaltender Jose Theodore (three shutouts, 2.46 GAA), the facts remain that the Panthers have a rookie coach in Kevin Dineen and a leader in Stephen Weiss, who has never played a postseason game.

The Devils are a long way from their old Stanley Cup form and they will likely get bounced by the rival Rangers in the second round. But they are better than Florida on many levels.

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Pick: Devils in six games

No. 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (-320) vs. No. 5 Philadelphia Flyers (+250)

This is the series that has the networks and advertisers drooling. There are stars on both sides of the ice, two quality goaltenders, and a pair of coaches who just don’t like each other.

The Battle of Pennsylvania should be a treat. The Penguins have the likely Hart Trophy winner in Evgeni Malkin (50 goals), and a still-on-his-way-back Sidney Crosby (22 games played), but NHL bettors should like the depth and drive of the Flyers.

The Flyers can come at you in waves, with the likes of Claude Giroux (93 points), Scott Hartnell (37 goals), Wayne Simmonds (49 points, 140 hits) and Jaromir Jagr (35 assists), and they back down to no one.

Though Philadelphia has missed injured forwards Danny Briere and James van Riemsdyk, the former may play before this series is said and done. Flyers goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov (33-16-7) doesn't have the finals appearances like Marc-Andre Fleury (42-17-4), but he has a stiffer defense in front of him.

Season series: 4-2 for the Flyers

Pick: Flyers in seven games

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**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:43 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Tampa Bay at Detroit
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-2 loss to Detroit and build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 11

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 16.800; Cincinnati (Cueto) 13.893
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Under

Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.923; NY Mets (Santana) 15.706
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 5
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.757; Cubs (Dempster) 15.661
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); Over

Game 907-908: Arizona at San Diego (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Saunders) 15.110; San Diego (Luebke) 16.292
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Over

Game 909-910: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Johnson) 14.091; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.090
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over

Game 911-912: Atlanta at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Delgado) 13.709; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.794
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.297; Colorado (Guthrie) 13.308
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Under

Game 915-916: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Bedard) 15.839; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.994
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.419; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.309
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 919-920: Boston at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.415; Toronto (Romero) 14.003
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Over

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 17.335; Detroit (Verlander) 15.995
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160); Under

Game 923-924: Kansas City at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 14.649; Oakland (McCarthy) 15.737
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Under

Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.813; Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.040
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Millwood) 15.483; Texas (Lewis) 17.421
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-230); Under

Game 929-930: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.870; Minnesota (Pavano) 13.514
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:46 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 11

Not a lot of relevant info to give out this early in the season, but we'll do what we can for the first week or so, until some trends develop.

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 3-0, 2.44 in his last seven starts. JGarcia is 1-0, 2.17 in his last four starts.
-- Strasburg is 1-1, 1.74 in six starts since his operation.. JSantana is 2-0, 0.90 in his last couple starts.
-- Halladay is 3-1, 1.20 in his last four starts.
-- Delgado was 1-1, 3.09 in seven starts LY, but lasted only 35 innings in those seven starts.
-- Guthrie is 4-0, 3.55 in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three starts.

-- Gomez was 4-1, 4.71 in his last five starts LY.
-- Tigers are 15-3 in Verlander's last 18 starts.
-- BChen is 2-1, 1.27 in his last five starts.
-- Lewis is 3-1, 3.53 in his last six starts.
-- Weaver is 3-1, 1.69 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Dempster is 0-6, 4.60 in his last nine starts. Gallardo is 1-2, 4.76 in his last four starts.
-- Saunders is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts. Luebke is 1-5, 5.00 in his last seven starts.
-- JJohnson is 0-2, 3.33 in his last four starts.
-- WRodriguez is 0-1, 3.55 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-4, 4.58 in his last six starts.
-- Bedard is 1-3, 4.60 in his last nine starts.

-- Lester is 0-3, 6.41 in his last five starts. Romero is 0-1, 4.98 in his last three outings.
-- Humber was 0-1, 5.84 in his last four starts LY.
-- Shields is 1-3, 6.27 in his last five starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 3.67 in his last four starts.
-- Sabathia is 0-1, 4.91 in his last seven starts. Arrieta is 2-4, 6.10 in his last seven outings.
-- Millwood was 4-3, 4.31 in nine starts LY, all in the NL.
-- Pavano is 1-3, 4.25 in his last five starts.

Hot teams
-- Los Angeles won four of its first five games.
-- Cardinals won five of their first six games.
-- Mets won four of their first five games. Nationals won three of five.
-- Astros won three of their last four games.
-- Milwaukee won three of its last four games.
-- Arizona won its first four games, scoring 21 runs.

-- Tampa Bay won three of its first four games. Detroit won its first four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Blue Jays won three of their first five games.
-- Orioles won three of their first five games.
-- Texas won four of its first five games.
-- Royals won three of their first five games.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost its last three games, scoring six runs. Marlins lost three of their first five games.
-- Pirates are 2-2 this season, despite scoring 8 runs in four games.
-- Reds lost three of their last four games.
-- Braves lost four of their first five games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Colorado lost its last three games, scoring five runs. Giants lost three of their first four games.
-- Padres lost four of their first five games.

-- Red Sox lost four of their first five games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 2-3, but did win last two games.
-- White Sox are 2-2, despite scoring total of only ten runs. Indians lost three of their first four games.
-- Minnesota lost its first four games, scoring six runs.
-- Mariners lost their last two games, scoring five runs.
-- A's lost four of their first six games.

We're going to get into totals and umpires and that good stuff, once we get enough to lnowledge this season to make it all relevant.

**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:51 AM

MLB

Wednesday, April 11

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Trend Report
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12:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland's last 10 games at home
Cleveland is 3-11 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

12:35 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games

12:37 PM
BOSTON vs. TORONTO
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston

1:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 14 games at home

1:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
Milwaukee is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Chi Cubs's last 18 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Chi Cubs are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing Milwaukee

3:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Oakland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games at home

6:35 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing San Diego
Arizona is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

8:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. HOUSTON
Atlanta is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. MINNESOTA
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of LA Angels's last 24 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

8:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. COLORADO
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Colorado is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco

10:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. LA DODGERS
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games

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**Udog** · 04-11-2012, 07:54 AM

MLB

Wednesday, April 11

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Betting MLB totals in the pitcher-friendly era
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Run production has dropped five straight years, from 4.86 per team in 2006 to 4.28 last year.

If the season’s first week is any indication, we won’t be seeing steroid-era scoring bonanzas any time soon. Teams combined for 8.3 runs per game, or 4.15 per team, in 60 games through Monday.

Remember when totals of 6.5 and 6 used to be rare? The LVH SuperBook opened the season with a 5.5 for the Dodgers-Padres matchup featuring Clayton Kershaw and Edinson Volquez. (Incidentally, the game went over with a 5-3 final).

“The biggest thing is the lack of home runs now,” handicapper Steve Merril said. “The steroid era is over, and there are fewer power hitters in the league.”

We talked to Merril and fellow handicapper Bryan Power to get their tips on betting totals in this low-scoring era.

Power said there can be value in going under totals as low as 6.

“When you have a total that low, the oddsmakers are basically tipping their hand,” said Power, a Covers Expert. “They’re strongly hoping that the public, which naturally prefers to bet overs, will see a small number and bet over.”

That value often disappears when ace pitchers like Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum square off, because oddsmakers know the public is more inclined than normal to bet under.

Merril has noticed a trend the past couple years with totals below 7.

“You’ll see 66 percent or more of the public on the over, yet the line drops even lower,”Merril said. “The public is on the over and the sharps are on the under, which is something you want to look for.”

Merril said he rarely plays over on totals below 7.

“There’s a good reason it’s so low,” he said. “Usually you have two very good pitchers, pitcher-friendly ballparks and bad offenses.”

Merril compared it to an NBA total in the 210 range.

“Usually you have two up-tempo teams that play no defense, and more often than not I find myself playing over,” he said.

Oddsmakers have adjusted to this pitcher-friendly era: the first 60 games yielded 30 overs and 30 unders.

Todd Fuhrman, senior sports analyst for Caesars Entertainment, said the increased number of totals under 7 is just one marked difference.

“The real adjustment is you see a lot more totals in the 7-8 range where historically you might have seen 8 or 9,” he said.

Seven and nine are key numbers. Because there are no ties in baseball - except in Bud Selig’s All-Star Game - games are less likely to land on 6 and 8. With bullpens taking on more importance and innings than ever, you should evaluate starters and relievers before playing a total.

Power also suggests you consider each team’s recent results and where the ballpark lies on the spectrum between AT&T Park (worst hitter’s park) and Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (best).

Some bettors retain a natural inclination to go over totals like 6.5 or 6, regardless of the teams, pitchers and parks involved.

Oddsmakers capitalize on that instinctive reaction.

“It takes a lot more guts for some of the novice bettors to go under 6.5,” Fuhrman said.

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Announcement

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 4/11 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 4/11 (NBA, NHL, MLB, Misc.)

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