The Bum's Friday's Best Bets NBA-MLB !

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder In Mini-Slump Heading To Indiana

With the playoffs fast approaching, jockeying for the final postseason positions is of utmost importance as NBA action moves into the weekend.

Several key battles are on tap for Friday night, as we take a look at the entire Friday card and highlight angles and trends of note in each matchup.

Oklahoma City at Indiana: First meeting of the season between these two. Note that OK City enters on a 2-game SU losing streak, its first of the season since early January; the Thunder has yet to lose three in a row outright this campaign. Note Indiana’s recent uptick that includes wins and covers in its last three games. The Pacers are also trending “over” lately, going that way in four straight, seven of nine, and 10 of their last 14 outings. This is also likely to be just the fourth time the Pacers have been a home 'dog this season (they’re 2-1 previously in role).

Washington at New Jersey: Curious series trends this season between these two with the road 'dog winning outright in the first two meetings, including the Wizards' 108-89 romp in Newark on March 21. Pointspread failures as chalk at the Pru Center have been common for the Nets, who are just 5-13 as a home favorite this term. Washington, however, might be losing traction, failing to cover in its last three outings prior to Thursday night vs. the Pistons, and note a turnaround of the Wizards’ recent “under” pattern (now “over” two straight prior to facing the Pistons on Thursday after “under” in 11 previous games).

Detroit at Atlanta: This has not been an easy matchup for the Hawks, who have been pushed to the limit twice by the Pistons while failing to cover both of those games, including an 86-85 loss at the Palace on March 9. Atlanta has, however, won and covered four of its last five at home after Wednesday’s romp past Charlotte. Note that Detroit’s overall road 'dog mark is subpar (9-16), and that the Pistons could be reversing their recent “under” trend by going “over” two in a row prior to facing the Wizards on Wednesday (Pistons “under” in five previous outings).

Memphis at Miami: First meeting between these two this season after the home team won and covered both clashes a year ago. Miami’s recent spread form has been a bit inconsistent (just 6-9 last 15), although maybe the Heat will be spurred by Thursday’s win over Oklahoma City that has put them almost within touching distance of the Bulls for the best record in the East.

As for the Grizzlies, they looked to be finally getting in order after a spate of spread losses following Zach Randolph’s return to active duty, but the Wednesday loss at Dallas puts Memphis at just 4-9 vs. the number its last 13 on the board. “Totals” note would include “unders” in last six and eight of last nine for Memphis.

Cleveland at Toronto: The Raptors have already scored the hat trick at Cleveland’s expense this season, winning and covering their first three meetings. The banged-up Cavs, now minus Duke rookie star Kyrie Irving until further notice, have lost nine in a row SU, not coming closer than nine points in any of those defeats. Cleveland had also dropped seven straight vs. the line prior to barely squeezing inside of a double-digit impost at Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

New Orleans at San Antonio: The Spurs have won the first three meetings vs. the Hornets but didn’t have an easy time in any of those games, failing to cover twice in the Big Easy. San Antonio did get the cover, however, when New Orleans visited AT&T Center on Feb. 2, and the Spurs are in a rich vein of form at the moment, having won their last nine and dropping the spread decision just once in that span. Still, might be wary of the Hornets in what has been a profitable road dog role (18-8). Note “overs” in 11 of Spurs’ last 15 games as well.

Charlotte at Milwaukee: Charlotte’s high point of the season might have come on opening night when beating the Bucks by one at Time Warner Cable Arena. It’s been all downhill after that for Paul Silas’ team, which is off another crushing road defeat (120-93) at Atlanta on Wednesday night. The Bobcats have suffered numerous lopsided beatings this season and Milwaukee inflicted one of those by a 112-92 count at Bradley Center on March 23. The Bucks have been providing pretty good value lately, covering 12 of their last 17.

Portland at Dallas: Dallas survived in OT in the first meeting between these two back on Feb. 11, but the Mavs still couldn’t cover the number in a rematch of an entertaining first-round playoff series last spring. Note the Blazers’ current zig-zag SU pattern; it’s been lose-win-lose-win for then straight games, and if the pattern holds it’s time for a SU loss tonight in Big D. Despite that earlier cover at AA Center, Portland is just 6-11 as a road 'dog in this distracting term. The Mavericks enter this one having won and covered four of their last six.

Phoenix at Denver: Possible Western Conference playoff implications here as these sides jockey for one of the last postseason berths. Denver won and covered by 17 in the first meeting at Pepsi Center back on Feb. 14, but that was before the Suns caught an updraft that has put them on the periphery of the playoff mix. Alvin Gentry’s team has now won and covered three straight in its latest uptick and is 16-7 vs. the spread since Feb. 19. Meanwhile, despite their earlier win and cover vs. the Suns, the Nuggets (back home after a 7-game road trip) are just 9-15 as home chalk this term.

Golden State at Utah: In one of the more-surprising current team trends in the NBA, Golden State has covered four straight and nine of its last 10 on the road (all as an underdog). One of those covers came at Salt Lake City on march 17 in a closely-contested OT loss vs. the Jazz. As for Utah, it is looking a bit shaky at the moment, losing and failing to cover four of the last five outings.

Houston at LA Lakers: The Rockets made a hurricane-like late rally to collar the Lakers by a 107-104 count in their most-recent meeting on March 20 at Toyota Center. As for the Lake Show, it has won its last four games SU but has not been covering numbers, having dropped seven straight and 10 of 11 against the line prior to Wednesday’s win vs. the Clippers. Kobe & Co. have also surprisingly dropped nine in a row vs. the number as a host at Staples Center (they were the designated “road” team on Wednesday vs. the Clips).

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals, Brewers Renew Rivalry In Milwaukee

After a somewhat disjointed MLB schedule over the past week, we finally get a something more closely resembling a full slate of action on Friday, with a couple of featured matchups in both the American and National Leagues.

The slates will begin to fill in as usual over the weekend as we will soon have completely full-scale MLB cards to enjoy. First, let’s take a look at this Friday rematch from last October’s NLCS between a pair of Central Division rivals, then we’ll preview an early AL East showdown at the Trop.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers
Miller Park – 4:10 p.m. (ET)

When last seen together, these two were rolling around in the NLCS, won by the Cardinals in six games before the Redbirds continued their shocking postseason run by beating the Rangers in seven action-packed World Series games.

The early posted numbers on the Don Best odds screen show Milwaukee at -135, with the total on 7½ runs.

The Cards got off to a smashing defense of their World Series crown by winning their opener at Miami in the Marlins’ new stadium on Wednesday night by a 4-1 count. Starter Kyle Lohse, who took the opening-day assignment in place of the injured Chris Carpenter, was exceptionally sharp, allowing just two hits over 7 1/3 IP.

Meanwhile, the Albert Pujols-less St. Louis offense put together 13 hits against a collection of Marlins hurlers including starter Josh Johnson. Picking up where he left off last October, 3B David Freese had three hits and a pair of RBIs. Shortstop Rafael Furcal, now batting leadoff, also contributed three hits in what turned out to be a very successful managerial debut for new St. Louis skipper Mike Matheny.

After taking off Thursday and traveling to Milwaukee, the Redbirds send lefty Jaime Garcia to the mound at Miller Park in the Brewers’ home opener. Garcia fared well against the Brew Crew in two starts last season, picking up a win while posting a 1.93 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 14 IP. On the road in 2011, however, Garcia’s numbers were not nearly as good as they were at Busch Stadium; His ERA was more than two runs higher away from home (4.61 vs. 2.55), while his WHIP (1.54 vs. 1.11) and OBA (.313 vs. .230) numbers were also much higher.

This will be the Brewers’ opener after an eventful offseason in which 1B Prince Fielder bolted for Detroit in free agency and reigning MVP OF Ryan Braun was hit with a 50-game banned substance suspension, only to have that penalty eventually overturned. Needless to say, Braun’s presence will be a plus for the Milwaukee offense that was nonetheless working on more-aggressive baserunning and manufacturing runs during spring work at Maryvale, all of which seem good ideas in the wake of the power-packed Fielder’s departure.

Skipper Ron Roenicke gives his opening-day assignment to righty Yovani Gallardo, off another solid campaign in which he recorded a 17-10 mark. Gallardo, however, had his problems last season vs. St. Louis, posting a 1-4 mark in five starts that included a loss in the NLCS at Busch Stadium when Gallardo was rocked, allowing eight hits and four runs in just five innings. Gallardo posted a 5.96 ERA and a WHIP of 1.50 in his five starts vs. the Cards a year ago.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field – 3:10 p.m. (ET)

What has evolved into a very colorful rivalry in the AL East gets a head start in 2012 as the Yankees travel to the Trop to visit the Rays in a matchup of playoff teams from the past two seasons.

The Yankees, who train across Tampa Bay at Legends Field just off of Dale Mabry Highway (and adjacent to the NFL Bucs’ Raymond James Stadium), will as usual have lots of support from the crowd as Joe Girardi sends king-sized lefty CC Sabathia to the mound to face Tampa Bay ace James Shields.

Early pricing on the Don Best odds screen notes that Sabathia and New York are priced at -120 on the win, with the total at seven and shaded to the 'over.'

Sabathia, of course, remains the Yankee ace and is off of another solid campaign in which he fashioned a 19-8 mark. His numbers vs. the Rays last season weren’t bad (2.51 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four starts), but he didn’t get a lot of run support in the process and recorded a win in only one of those four starts. He was a hard-luck loser in his only start at the Trop, outpitched by Friday’s opponent Shields in a 2-1 Rays win on July 21. Sabathia allowed only two runs and five hits while striking out eight in 8 IP. CC was a loser that night nonetheless thanks to Shields, who allowed only one run and six hits in 7 1/3 IP before letting relievers Brandom Gomes and Kyle Farnsworth close out the game.

Shields emerged as a dominant presence last year for Joe Maddon’s team, posting career-bests in wins (16), ERA (2.82), and WHIP (1.04). Shields’ numbers were even better at The Trop (2.36 ERA vs. 3.35 ERA on the road). Much like Sabathia vs. the Rays, however, Shields’ mostly good work vs. the Yankees was not always rewarded with a win, as the Rays won only two of Shields’ five starts vs. the Bronx Bombers despite his impressive numbers (including a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 38 2/3 IP).

As for the Rays, Maddon is hoping that the additions of 1B Carlos Peña (an ex-Ray via the Cubs) and DH Luke Scott (via the Orioles) will provide the extra pop in the lineup that last year’s attack seemed to lack. Having a healthy 3B Evan Longoria, who missed almost all of last April due to injury, should also benefit the Rays in the early going.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday Tips

April 5, 2012


Eleven games take place on the Friday NBA card, including five showcase contests involving playoff squads. The Heat looks to capitalize off Wednesday's victory over the Thunder as the Grizzlies invade South Florida, while the night wraps up in Los Angeles with the streaking Lakers hosting the Rockets. We'll start in Indiana as Oklahoma City attempts to break out of a recent losing funk.

Thunder at Pacers - 7:05 PM EST

It's been uncharacteristic of Oklahoma City to lose a lot of games this season, much less two in a row. But the Thunder tries to get on track after consecutive losses to the Grizzlies and Heat, as OKC wraps its road swing at Indiana on Friday. The Pacers begin a crucial three-game homestand, while looking to extend a three-game winning streak after Wednesday's blowout of Washington.

Frank Vogel's team is riding a nice 'over' stretch recently by cashing in seven of the last nine games, including four consecutive 'overs.' The Pacers held off the Rockets in overtime in the first game of this current hot streak, while rallying past the Knicks in a front-door cover as six-point favorites on Tuesday. Indiana is 2-0 SU/ATS the last two opportunities as a home underdog, including a convincing 105-90 victory over Miami on March 26.

The Thunder hasn't dropped three straight games all season, while suffering back-to-back losses for just the second time. OKC has hit the 'under' in three straight games, but the Thunder's offense has registered less than 93 points in each contest. Since January 6, the Thunder owns a strong 15-4 ATS record off an ATS loss, while cashing in four of the last six games as a road favorite. Oklahoma City goes for only its second win in the last five visits to Bankers Life Fieldhouse, as the Thunder rallied for a 110-106 overtime triumph in November 2010.

Grizzlies at Heat - 7:35 PM EST

Miami is running through opponents at home with ease by picking up 17 straight wins at American Airlines Arena since January 24. The Heat tries to extend that streak against a Memphis squad that is playing its fourth games in five nights. The Grizzlies saw their three-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday's setback at Dallas, following low-scoring victories over the Thunder and the Warriors.

Memphis has cashed the 'under' in eight of the previous nine games, while holding each of the last seven opponents to below 100 points. Lionel Hollins' club is 2-8 ATS the last 10 contests when playing with at least one day of rest, as the Grizzlies look to improve on a 3-5 ATS mark the past eight games away from FedEx Forum.

The Heat play the middle contest of a five-game homestand after beating the 76ers and Thunder, while Miami has compiled an 8-11 ATS record since the All-Star break. Erik Spoelstra's team is 10-3 to the 'under' the last 13 games at the American Airlines Arena, including Wednesday's 98-93 victory over OKC with a total of 198 ½. Miami blew out Memphis in its last meeting in South Florida last March, 118-85 as 7 ½-point favorites.

Suns at Nuggets - 9:05 PM EST

Denver returns home following a 3-4 road trip, as the Nuggets take on the red-hot Suns at the Pepsi Center. Phoenix knocked off Utah in the final seconds on Wednesday, 107-105 for its third consecutive victory, as the Suns have pulled within one game of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference race. The team the Suns is chasing happens to be the Nuggets, who lost to the Hornets as five-point favorites on Wednesday, 94-92.

This is a tough scheduling spot for George Karl's team, who hits the road once again on Saturday at Golden State. The Nuggets will be playing in their eighth different city since March 23, while Denver is 2-7 ATS the previous nine games at the Pepsi Center. The last time these teams hooked up on Valentine's Day, both Steve Nash and Grant Hill rested as the Nuggets routed the Suns, 109-92 as 9 ½-point home favorites.

Phoenix has turned into one of the most profitable teams in the league since the All-Star break by posting a 15-5 ATS ledger. A majority of that damage was done at home (9-2 ATS), but the Suns have cashed in four of the previous six opportunities as a road underdogs. Alvin Gentry's club has lost four of the last five meetings in Denver, with the lone victory coming in February 2010.

Rockets at Lakers - 10:35 PM EST

The Purple and Gold has won four straight games, including a crucial 113-108 triumph over the rival Clippers on Wednesday. However, the Lakers are just 2-10 ATS the last 12 games overall and 0-10 ATS the previous 10 opportunities as a home favorite. The Rockets continue their four-game road swing after knocking off the Bulls on Monday, 99-93 as 7 ½-point underdogs.

In spite of not covering any of the last 10 games in the home 'chalk' role, the Lakers have managed to win seven times straight-up. Mike Brown's team has allowed 100 points or more in five of the previous seven games, but the 'over' is just 4-3 in that stretch. The Lakers threw away a 17-point lead at the Toyota Center on March 20, falling to the Rockets, 107-104 as three-point favorites.

Houston has been consistently inconsistent as of late by alternating wins and losses in each of the last seven contests. The Rockets are 8-4 ATS since opening the second half with eight straight ATS defeats, including wins over the Thunder, Lakers, Grizzlies, and Bulls. Kevin McHale's squad is just 3-9 ATS the last 12 away contests, while going 3-7 ATS in the road 'dog role.

[Kaptain]

gl tonight BUM.....get em PODNA

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Friday

April 6, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Rockets are 11-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since February 22, 2011 with at least one day of rest after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Hawks are 0-10 OU (-10.6 ppg) since May 01, 2009 after a win in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.


PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bobcats are 0-11 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since April 26, 2010 after losing the previous matchup at home in which Tyrus Thomas was not the Bobcats’ high scorer.


CHOICE TREND:

The Pistons are 0-12 ATS (-4.2 ppg) since November 18, 1997 on the road after a home win in which they had more turnovers than assists.


TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Nets are 0-11 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since February 28, 2004 as a favorite after a road loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

The Pacers are 11-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 03, 1999 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

[StarDust Bum]

Hawks host red-hot Pistons Friday night


DETROIT PISTONS (21-33)

at ATLANTA HAWKS (32-23)


Tip-off: Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -9, Total: 186

The surging Pistons look for a sixth win in seven game when they visit the Hawks on Friday night.

Detroit is red-hot, winning five of six games, including three in a row. The Pistons have also played well against Atlanta recently, going 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, winning three of those matchups outright. But the Hawks have beaten the Pistons six straight times at home (4-2 ATS). Will Atlanta win by double-digits in this Eastern Conference matchup? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekend Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is an excellent 16-8 ATS (67%) since March 28.

Detroit is a strong 20-11 ATS (65%) since the start of February, but hasn’t won very often on the road this season, going 6-21 SU (11-16 ATS). The offense has sputtered to just 88.1 PPG on 42.6% FG in these road contests, while the defense has allowed 96.5 PPG on 47.1% FG to host teams. But after averaging just 78.5 PPG during a five-game stretch, the Pistons have put up 103.7 PPG on 54% FG in the past three contests, making at least 52% of their shots in each game.

C Greg Monroe (16.0 PPG, 9.8 RPG) has led Detroit during this recent surge with 18.7 PPG (65% FG) and 9.0 RPG in the past three games. Monroe has also averaged 21.0 PPG (59% FG) and 9.0 RPG in two meetings with Atlanta this year. SF Tayshaun Prince (13.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG) has also played well of late with 19.2 PPG on 51% FG (5-of-7 threes) in his past five contests. C/F Jason Maxiell (6.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG) posted just his third double-double of the season in Thursday’s 99-94 home win over Washington. His previous double-double came against the Hawks, when he scored 19 points (9-of-11 FG) with 12 rebounds on March 9, an 86-85 Pistons win. Maxiell also had 19 points (8-of-14 FG) with eight boards in a Jan. 27 loss to the Hawks (107-101 in OT). Leading scorer, PG Rodney Stuckey (16.1 PPG, 4.0 APG), had been out with a hamstring injury, but he returned to action on Thursday, scoring 15 points (6-of-7 FG) in 19 minutes before fouling out. He’s still not 100 percent, but he should still be effective for 25 minutes in this matchup. This two-star FoxSheets trend favors the Pistons to cover:

Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DETROIT) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, second half of the season. (99-55 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.3%, +38.5 units. Rating = 2*).

Atlanta has been pretty solid recently, winning eight of its past 12 games (7-4-1 ATS). The Hawks have been strong at home all year (18-8 SU), but are an average wager at 14-12 ATS at Philips Arena. The offense has really been clicking lately, shooting 49.0% from the field in its past five games, and has 11 turnovers or less in nine of its past 12 contests. Although their Wednesday opponent was lowly Charlotte, the Hawks scored 120 points on 57% FG with just six turnovers in that 27-point victory. And that was with all of the starters resting the entire fourth quarter.

PF Josh Smith (18.9 PPG, 9.7 RPG) scored 24 points (11-of-17 FG) with nine rebounds and four assists in just 27 minutes versus the Bobcats, continuing his recent surge. In his past nine games, Smith has 26.0 PPG and 10.8 RPG. He has also thrived against the Pistons this year, averaging 20.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 5.5 APG in two meetings against them. SG Joe Johnson (19.0 PPG, 3.9 APG) had 16 points and five assists against Charlotte, giving him 19.8 PPG on 46% FG (43% threes) in his past 10 contests. He has torched the Pistons this year too, scoring 24.0 PPG on 49% FG and 10-of-11 FT in the two meetings. With the reserves getting extra playing time on Wednesday, SG Willie Green (7.6 PPG) scored 17 points, giving him 15.0 PPG on 16-of-25 FG (64%) in his past three games. PG Jannero Pargo (5.4 PPG) scored 12 points (5-of-7 FG) with six assists on Wednesday in his first game back after missing 10 contests due to an appendectomy. The FoxSheets provide this strong trend expecting the Hawks to win by a large margin on Friday night:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent, off a home win by 10 points or more. (100-62 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.7%, +31.8 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Mavs look to retain home dominance over Portland Friday


PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (26-29)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (31-24)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -6½, Total: 191½

The Mavs look to beat up on the Blazers in Big D again when Portland comes to town on Friday night.

The Mavs have a six-game home SU winning streak over the Blazers (4-2 ATS) and are 17-2 SU at home against Portland since 2003-04, winning nine of those games by double-digits. But the Blazers have played better on the road recently, and star PF LaMarcus Aldridge is finally healthy. Will the Mavericks win by enough points to cover here? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekend Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is an excellent 16-8 ATS (67%) since March 28.

The Blazers have righted the ship to an extent. After some embarrassing nights at the start of interim head coach Kaleb Canales’ tenure, they’ve won two of three, SU and ATS in April (albeit at home against the Nets and Wolves, sandwiched around a home loss to the Jazz). And while they’re just 1-4 SU on the road under Canales, they’re 3-2 ATS, covering in each of their past two road games (against the two L.A. teams).

Since missing the Clippers game because of a sore elbow, Aldridge (21.6 PPG on 51.4% FG, 8.1 RPG) has come back strong. He’s averaged 25.7 PPG on 54.4% FG and 8.0 RPG over three games since his return to the lineup. SG Wesley Matthews (13.0 PPG) has shot it very well since moving back into the starting lineup after Gerald Wallace was dealt. In 12 games, Matthews is averaging 17.0 PPG and shooting 50.0% from three. SF Nicolas Batum (14.2 PPG, 39.8% from three) has also strung together a couple of nice performances. He’s averaging 19.5 PPG and hitting 45.2% from three over his past four games, and he’s double-doubled in each of the past two. This strong FoxSheets trend backs the Blazers:

DALLAS is 8-20 ATS (28.6%, -14.0 Units) in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 98.0, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 1*).

Dallas has lost eight straight front ends of back-to-backs SU (1-7 ATS), often because Rick Carlisle managed his aging roster in the second half of the season. The Mavs got some mixed results playing at home two times to start off April. They were hammered by the Clippers, 94-75, then beat Memphis handily, 95-85. PF Dirk Nowitzki (21.2 PPG) is starting to heat up again, going for 23.8 PPG on 50.7% FG over his past four games. Sixth man Jason Terry (15.0 PPG) continues to be a bit streaky as the team’s No. 2 option, but he bounced back from a 1-for-10 night in Miami last week to average 15.7 PPG on 48.7% FG over the past three contests.

The Mavs could continue to be without PG Jason Kidd (5.9 PPG, 5.2 APG), who is nursing a groin injury and has missed the past two games. After sitting out 21 games with a broken finger, PG Delonte West (8.5 PPG) has given the Mavs a bit of a boost. He had 14 points and hit 6-of-7 from the field (2-for-2 from three) in Wednesday’s win over the Grizzlies. West is averaging 10.5 PPG and shooting 58.6% in four games since returning to the court, and scoring 10.0 PPG on 56.3% FG in two starts in place of Kidd. This three-star FoxSheets trend expects the Mavericks to win big:

DALLAS is 12-1 ATS (92.3%, +10.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 102.3, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers look to extend win streak hosting Rockets


HOUSTON ROCKETS (29-25)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (35-20)


Tip-off: Thursday, 10:05 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -6, Total: 195

The red-hot Lakers seek their fifth straight win when they host the Rockets on Friday night.

Although L.A. is finding ways to barely beat inferior teams straight-up, it is a dismal 2-10 ATS in the past dozen contests. This includes a 107-104 loss in Houston on March 20 when the Rockets won despite not having their starting backcourt (Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry) who both remain out. Can the Lakers win and cover the considerable spread on Friday? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekend Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is an excellent 16-8 ATS (67%) since March 28.

Houston is 8-4 ATS in its past 12 games overall, but has really struggled on the road this season, going 9-17 SU and 10-15-1 ATS. Most of the problems have occurred because of its defense allowing 100.5 PPG on 48% FG away from home. But in their past four road games, the Rockets have limited these quality teams (L.A. Clippers, Phoenix, Dallas and Chicago) to just 94.3 PPG, holding all of them under 100 points.

The Rockets have been playing well despite the absence of Lowry (bacterial infection) and Martin (shoulder) who combine for 33.0 PPG and 10.0 APG this season. PG Goran Dragic (10.2 PPG, 4.7 APG) has stepped up in a big way in filling this void. He has scored 11+ points in 16 straight games, averaging 17.3 PPG (53% FG, 44% threes) and 7.8 APG in this span. In his past three contests, Dragic has a hefty 22.7 PPG on 63% FG (6-of-11 threes).

But it hasn’t been just the Goran Dragic show in Houston. PF Luis Scola (15.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG) scored 18 points with 12 boards and six assists in his team’s 99-93 upset in Chicago Monday. He has 14 straight double-figure scoring games, averaging 18.1 PPG (54% FG) and 6.9 RPG in this timeframe. Three other players also had strong performances in Monday’s big win, as C Marcus Camby (4.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG) had 12 points and 11 boards, and both SF Chase Budinger (8.7 PPG) and SG Courtney Lee (10.8 PPG) scored 13 apiece. A big key to the Rockets hanging around in this game is the defense of SF Chandler Parsons (9.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG), who was a big reason Kobe Bryant made just 10-of-27 FG when these teams last met on March 20. This three-star FoxSheets trend favors the Rockets:

L.A. LAKERS are 7-21 ATS (25.0%, -16.1 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The average score was L.A. LAKERS 97.3, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 3*).

The Lakers continue to dominate at home with a 23-5 SU record (13-15 ATS). Los Angeles has been winning with defense, holding these visiting teams to just 90.2 PPG on 41.7% FG, while making 47.2% of its own shots. The Lakers offense is finally coming around after shooting 42.5% or worse in four straight games. In the past three contests, they are averaging 108.0 PPG on 51.2% FG, including 40.4% three-pointers.

Bryant (28.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.6 APG) had a tremendous performance in Wednesday’s 113-108 win over the Clippers, scoring 31 points on 13-of-19 FG, and adding six assists and five rebounds. Bryant is now making a blistering 62% of his shots (8-of-12 threes) in the past three contests, averaging 31.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 4.7 APG in this span. Despite being hampered with an ankle injury, C Andrew Bynum (18.3 PPG, 11.9 RPG) also dominated the Clippers with 36 points (13-of-20 FG, 10-of-12 FT), eight rebounds and four blocks. In the two meetings with Houston this year, Bryant has 33.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG and 5.0 APG, while Bynum has added 18.5 PPG (58% FG) and 14.5 RPG.

PF Pau Gasol (17.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG) has also played well in the two meetings with the Rockets, tallying 17.5 PPG on 68% FG. Gasol has been the model of consistency recently with 37 straight double-figure scoring games, grabbing 10+ rebounds in 26 of those contests. PG Ramon Sessions (11.3 PPG, 5.6 APG) had 16 points, eight assists and six rebounds against the Clippers, and is now averaging 14.0 PPG (52% FG) and 7.3 APG in 12 games with the Lakers. The FoxSheets provide this strong trend supporting the Lakers to win big on Friday:

Play On - Any team (L.A. LAKERS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. (79-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.2%, +30.6 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

Diamondbacks open 2012 vs. rival Giants Friday

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (0-0)

at ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (0-0)


First pitch: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Arizona -125, San Francisco +105, Total: 7

The reigning NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks will look to begin their defense of the division title against last year’s second place team, the San Francisco Giants.

The Giants won 86 games last season despite scoring the second-fewest runs in the majors. But this year’s lineup has far more potential. Phenom catcher Buster Posey is back in the fold after season-ending ankle surgery last year and will join Pablo Sandoval (23 HR, .315 BA) in the middle of the lineup. And on days like Friday when Tim Lincecum, who suffered from poor run support last season going 13-14 with a 2.74 ERA, having Posey back is huge. The Diamondbacks lineup can be dangerous with 24-year-old outfielder Justin Upton looking to build on his 31-HR season from a year ago, and others with the potential to bounce back from rough seasons such as OF Chris Young. The key, though in this game, is Arizona starting pitcher Ian Kennedy’s career success against the Giants. In 10 career starts he has a 1.91 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Take him and ARIZONA to win as slight favorites.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Diamondbacks:

IAN KENNEDY is 14-1 (93.3%, +14.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record). The average score was KENNEDY 4.8, OPPONENT 2.2 - (Rating = 4*).

Although Kennedy’s splits may steal the show, Lincecum is not too shabby either. Against the Diamondbacks in his career he is 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts, including 10.7 K/9. Run support was definitely an issue in 2011, but now Posey and Sandoval have two brand new table setters in outfielders Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, who was acquired from Kansas City for Jonathan Sanchez in the offseason. Cabrera’s 2011 stats show what a well-rounded player he is: .305 BA, 18 HR, 87 RBI, 102 Runs, 20 SB. Pagan’s inconsistencies forced the Mets to get rid of him, but he was also one of the most undervalued hitters in baseball in 2010. If he can return to that form, the Giants lineup will be much more dangerous this season.

The Diamondbacks have players throughout their lineup with pop, paced by Upton but including others such as catcher Miguel Montero (18 HR, 86 RBI in 2011) and third baseman Ryan Roberts (19 HR). 1B Paul Goldschmidt, just 24 years old, will look to build on his partial season success of 2011 (8 HR in 156 AB) and newly acquired OF Jason Kubel has 100-RBI potential. Take this deep crew and Kennedy (21-4, 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 2011) for the win.

[StarDust Bum]

Pujols makes Angels debut Friday vs. Royals


KANSAS CITY ROYALS (0-0)

at LOS ANGELES ANGELS (0-0)


First pitch: Friday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Los Angeles -220, Kansas City +180, Total: 7

The Albert Pujols era in Los Angeles officially begins Friday as the Angels open up the 2012 season with a meeting with the Royals.

The former Cardinals slugger is expected to lead this Angels team to the playoffs, but there are certainly question marks for the rest of L.A.’s lineup. OFs Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells are in the twilight of their careers, and OF Peter Bourjos and 3B Alberto Callaspo are below-average hitters in terms of everyday players in American League lineups. The middle infield duo of 2B Howie Kendrick and SS Erick Aybar has potential, but neither is an All-Star caliber player right now. On the other hand, the Royals are a team on the rise with several good-looking young players like 1B Eric Hosmer, CF Lorenzo Cain, DH Billy Butler, LF Alex Gordon and 3B Mike Moustakas. K.C. won seven of 10 meetings with Los Angeles last year, and with such a great potential payoff with the lines, the play here is KANSAS CITY to pull off the upset.

This strong FoxSheets trend also favors the Royals:

L.A. ANGELS are 176-135 (-48.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. The average score was L.A. ANGELS 4.5, OPPONENT 4.2.

The Royals will be sending veteran lefty Bruce Chen (12-8. 3.77 ERA in 2011) to the mound on Friday. He was roughed up a bit by L.A. last year (5 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K), but has decent numbers against the Angels in six appearances in his career (1-1, 4.01 ERA, 1.18 ERA). Chen’s stats are outstanding in his three games at Angel Stadium. In those three contests, Chen has thrown 14.1 IP, allowing just eight hits and three runs. This includes a 7.1-inning masterpiece in his last visit in 2010, when he held the Angels to just two hits and one run. Kansas City won seven of the final 11 games Chen pitched last season, and also went 5-1 in Chen’s six April starts last year. The Royals were 10-6 (.625) when tabbed as an underdog with Chen on the mound in 2011, and 12-7 (.632) when Chen was opposed by a right-handed starter.

Jered Weaver (18-8, 2.41 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) will take the mound for Los Angeles on Friday. After going winless against the Royals in 2007 and 2008, Weaver has dominated them in four straight meetings, going 3-0 with a miniscule 0.64 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He has 32 strikeouts and just six walks in this 28.1-inning span. Weaver has also had fast starts to the season in the past two campaigns, going 8-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 10 April starts. The Angels were 12-3 at home when Weaver started last year.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 6

Not a lot of relevant info to give out this early in the season, but we'll do what we can.

Danks was 2-3, 8.69 in September LY, after throwing 120-pitch CG at Seattle August 27; he was 0-1, 3.80 in three starts against Texas LY. White Sox were 4-9 in his road starts LY. Lewis was 1-1, 3.80 in his four postseason starts; Rangers won six of his last eight home starts, but his last seven starts LY were all on the road. He shut the Pale Hose out in Chicago May 16, winning 4-0.

Pavano was 1-1, 5.85 in his last three road starts LY; Twins were 4-8 in his last 12 starts. Pavano was 0-2, 15.58 vs Baltimore LY, giving up 8 runs in 4.2 IP here April 19. Arrieta finished 6th inning once in his last seven starts LY (2-4, 7.18); he shut the Twins out for six innings in an 11-0 win against Minnesota and Pavano last April.

Sabathia is a workhorse; he got used twice in relief in playoffs LY, but in his last three starts, was 0-0, 4.91, allowing 36 baserunners in 18.1 IP. Sabathia was 1-2, 2.51 in four starts against the Rays LY. Shields made five starts vs Bronx LY (2-3, 2.79), with home side winning four of five games. He was 1-3, 5.46 in his last four starts overall.

Chen as an Opening Day starter wouldn't normally elicit anything close to a positive reaction, but he was 2-1, 1.53 in his last four starts LY; he allowed five runs in five IP in his start against the Angels LY, also in his first start of season. Weaver was 2-1, 2.15 in his last four starts LY-- he blanked the Royals for 6.1 IP in his only start against them, allowing two hits in a 4-2 win.

Vargas allowed one run in 6.1 IP against Oakland in Tokyo last week; he is 3-0, 2.18 in his last five starts overall- this will make it his third start in a row against the A's. McCarthy allowed one run (Ackley HR) in his seven IP against Seattle last week- they pitched in different games. He is 2-3, 2.25 in his last seven starts overall.

Garcia was 0-2, 4.21 in five postseason starts LY; he was 3-0, 4.11 in five September starts to help Redbirds get to the postseason. Garcia let up 14 runs in 13.2 IP in his last three starts vs Milwaukee, after he beat them 6-0 May 6 with a two-hit CG. Gallardo was 3-1, 2.29 in his last six starts LY; he was 0-4, 8.71 in his last four starts vs St Louis, after blanking them for eight innings last May 7.

Lincecum was 1-5, 4.50 in his last six starts LY, with Giants scoring a total of nine runs in the six games; he was 0-3, 6.35 in last three starts vs Arizona, after blanking them for eight innings May 10. Kennedy is 3-0, 1.46 in his last five starts against the Giants; he was 2-1, 2.70 in his last four starts overall.

Orioles won six of Guthrie's last seven starts LY (3-0, 3.46 in last four); he didn't pitch against the Astros. A bad Houston team was 6-6 in lefty Rodriguez' last 12 starts LY; he was 1-1, 3.60 in his last four, but gave up six runs in six IP in his only start against Colorado last season.

Billingsley got rocked in his last spring start; he was 1-1, 6.35 in his five September starts LY, lasting total of only 22.2 IP. He allowed three runs in 13 IP in two starts against San Diego. Luebke was 1-4, 4.72 in his last six starts LY; he was 902, 6.08 in two starts against the Dodgers LY.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, April 6

Hot Teams
-- Pacers won four of their last five games.
-- Nets covered five of last seven games, won two of last three at home.
-- Atlanta won five of its last six home games. Pistons won five of their last six games overall.
-- Miami won its last six home games (3-3 vs spread).
-- Raptors won four of their last five games.
-- San Antonio won its last nine games (6-2-1 vs spread). Hornets are 12-4 against spread in their last 16 road games.
-- Bucks won four of last five games, but covered just one of last five at home.
-- Mavericks won seven of their last nine home games (4-5 vs spread).
-- Suns won/covered five of their last seven road games.
-- Warriors covered nine of their last ten road games.
-- Lakers won last four games at Staples (1-9 vs spread in last ten).

Cold Teams
-- Thunder lost last two games, scoring 88-93 points.
-- Washington lost its last four games, but is 6-3 vs spread in its last nine road games.
-- Cavaliers lost last nine games, covered one of last eight.
-- Bobcats lost ten of their last eleven road games (4-7 vs spread).
-- Portland lost nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Nuggets are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine home games.
-- Utah lost its last five games, three of last four by 5 or less points.
-- Rockets covered only three of last dozen road games.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Thunder: 3rd game/4 nites. Pacers: 7th game/10 nites.
-- Wizards: 7th game/9 nites. Nets: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Pistons: 3rd game/4 nites. Hawks: 2nd game/6 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 6th game/8 nites. Heat: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Cavaliers: 3rd game/4 nites. Raptors: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Hornets: 2nd game/5 nites. Spurs: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Bobcats: 3rd game/4 nites. Bucks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Blazers: 6th game/9 nites. Mavericks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Suns: 3rd game/4 nites. Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Warriors: 3rd game/4 nites. Jazz: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Rockets: Had last three nites off. Lakers: 5th game/7 nites.

Totals
-- Five of last six Thunder games stayed under the total. Indiana's last four games went over.
-- Seven of last nine New Jersey games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Detroit road games stayed under total. Atlanta's last three games all went over.
-- Eight of last nine Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-4 in Toronto's last ten games.
-- Four of last five Hornet games stayed under the total. Four of last five Milwaukee games went over.
-- Over is 8-4 in Charlotte's last twelve games.
-- Five of last six Portland games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Phoenix road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Golden State's last nine road games.
-- Over is 8-3 in Lakers' last eleven games.

Back-to-Back
-- Washington is 4-2 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Detroit is 2-0 if it won the night before.

[StarDust Bum]

Parlay Best Bets # 1

04/06/2012 @ 04:20 PM MLB [953] TOTAL o7 1.83 (SF GIANTS vrs ARI D'BACKS)
( T LINCECUM-R / I KENNEDY -R )

04/06/2012 @ 04:20 PM MLB [954] ARI D'BACKS 1.88
( ACTION )

04/06/2012 @ 07:05 PM MLB [957] TOTAL o6 1.87 (LA DODGERS vrs SD PADRES)
( BILLINGSLY-R / C LUEBKE -L )

04/06/2012 @ 07:05 PM MLB [957] LA DODGERS 2.18
( ACTION )

04/06/2012 @ 04:15 PM NBA [702] INDIANA +3½ 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 04:35 PM NBA [704] TOTAL u197 1.91
(WASHINGTON vrs NEW JERSEY)

04/06/2012 @ 04:35 PM NBA [705] DETROIT +8½ 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 04:35 PM NBA [708] MIAMI -7½ 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 04:35 PM NBA [709] CLEVELAND + 7 1.91

--------------------------------------------------------

Parlay Best Bets # 2


04/06/2012 @ 05:35 PM NBA [711] NEW ORLEANS +11 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 05:35 PM NBA [711] TOTAL o194 1.91
(NEW ORLEANS vrs SAN ANTONIO)

04/06/2012 @ 05:35 PM NBA [714] MILWAUKEE -13 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 05:35 PM NBA [716] DALLAS -6 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 06:05 PM NBA [718] DENVER -3 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 06:05 PM NBA [719] GOLDEN STATE +8 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 07:35 PM NBA [721] HOUSTON +6 1.91

04/06/2012 @ 07:35 PM NBA [721] TOTAL o195 1.91
(HOUSTON vrs LA LAKERS)