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**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:21 PM

Heat look for payback vs. Thunder Wednesday

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (40-13)

at MIAMI HEAT (38-14)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -3, Total: 197

The Heat try to extend their home winning streak to 17 games on Wednesday, but it won’t be easy facing an Oklahoma City team that crushed Miami just 11 days ago.

The Thunder rolled past the Heat 103-87 on March 25, outshooting them (53% to 47%), outrebounding them (36-31) and forcing 21 Miami turnovers with 13 steals. Miami has a big injury concern with SG Dwyane Wade’s sore left knee, but the team has responded in his absence with a 9-1 SU mark. Which team will keep its winning streak intact? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is on a 12-6 ATS run since last Wednesday.

Oklahoma City has a bunch of trends in its favor on Wednesday. The Thunder are not only 15-10 ATS (60%) on the road, but they are also 11-1 (10-2 ATS) after an SU loss and 11-3 (SU and ATS) versus Eastern Conference teams this season. OKC has also won seven straight ATS in Miami, going 4-3 SU during this streak.

SF Kevin Durant (27.5 PPG on 50% FG, 8.2 RPG) had 28 points, nine boards and eight assists in the March 25 trouncing of the Heat, giving him 27.7 PPG (49.4% FG) and 7.0 RPG in nine career meetings with Miami. He has also played well during his team’s current 6-1 surge, averaging 27.6 PPG (55% FG, 47% 3-pt FG) and 10.0 RPG in these seven contests. PG Russell Westbrook (24.4 PPG, 5.4 APG) is coming off a tough night versus Memphis on Monday (a 94-88 loss), making just 5-of-16 FG with three assists and five turnovers. But in the previous five games (all wins), Westbrook scored a whopping 30.6 PPG (52% FG) with 6.2 APG. Super sub SG James Harden (16.9 PPG, 3.8 APG) had 19 points on 6-of-7 shooting in the last meeting versus Miami, but also committed seven turnovers in that victory. Harden has been on the mark over his past six contests, scoring 16.5 PPG on 57% FG and 10-of-22 threes (46%). This three-star FoxSheets trend supports the Thunder on Wednesday:

Play On - Underdogs (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a top-level team (>= 75%) playing a good team (60% to 75%). (99-50 since 1996.) (66.4%, +44 units. Rating = 3*).

Miami has averaged 99.8 PPG on 48.1% FG during its 16-game home win streak, outscoring these visitors by 10.7 PPG. And the defense has been tremendous at home all year, allowing just 90.5 PPG on 42.4% FG. The offense is averaging a hefty 102.6 PPG on 49.2% FG at AmericanAirlines Arena this season.

Wade missed Tuesday’s 99-93 win over Philadelphia because of his knee injury, but his team picked him up by shooting 47% FG, winning the rebounding battle 43-38 and piling up 13 steals. James’ numbers were simply outstanding: 41 points, 15-of-25 FG, 10-of-13 FT, six rebounds, four assists and three steals in just 38 minutes of action. PF Chris Bosh (18.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) also had a strong night with 17 points and a game-high +14 rating. This was quite an improvement from a dreadful four-point performance in Sunday’s blowout loss in Boston. PG Mario Chalmers (10.0 PPG, 3.5 APG) also played terribly against the Celtics (two points, 1-of-5 FG in 23 minutes), but he also thrived against the 76ers with 19 points, six rebounds and four assists. This FoxSheets trend expects the Heat to prevail:

MIAMI is 78-54 ATS (59.1%, +18.6 Units) in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The average score was MIAMI 95.5, OPPONENT 90.2.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:23 PM

Battle of L.A. continues Wednesday night

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (34-20)

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (32-21)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: L.A. Clippers -3, Total: 188

The Clippers can close to within a game of the Lakers for the Pacific Division lead when they host their in-town foes on Wednesday night.

Which team will come out on top on Wednesday night? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is on a 12-6 ATS run since last Wednesday.

The Lakers have won three in a row SU, but failed to cover in any of those wins. Playing without C Andrew Bynum (17.9 PPG on 58.1% FG, 11.9 RPG), who’s questionable for Wednesday because of a sprained ankle, the Lakers just held on to beat the Nets 91-87 at home on Tuesday. SG Kobe Bryant (28.0 PPG) had 24 points on 10-for-16 shooting, including a key three-pointer to stretch the lead to four in the final seconds. PF Pau Gasol (17.1 PPG on 51.0% FG, 10.5 RPG) added 22 points on 11-for-20 shooting and 12 rebounds. Gasol has gotten 20 and 10 in three straight games. The trade deadline acquisition of PG Ramon Sessions (13.8 PPG on 53.3% FG, 7.2 APG in 11 games with the Lakers) continues to pay dividends. Sessions’ plus/minus has been positive (an average of +7.6) in each of his 11 games with the Lakers. He’s averaging 17.3 PPG on 54.5% FG and 10.0 APG over his past three games.

Bryant seems to have officially broken out of his slump. After hitting just 27.1% of his shots during a three-game span last week, he had 40 against the Warriors on Sunday and then added an efficient 24 (10-for-16 FG, 3-of-6 threes) against New Jersey. He has played well against the Clippers no matter which team has been the Staples Center host. He’s averaging 30.4 PPG on 47.4% FG against them over the past three seasons, a span of nine games, including 42 points on 14-for-28 shooting when they were the road team against the Clippers on Jan. 14. This three-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Lakers:

Play On - Underdogs (L.A. LAKERS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. (47-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.6%, +29.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Clippers are on a roll, winners of six in a row SU overall (5-1 ATS) and seven in a row SU at home (4-3 ATS). The Chris Paul-Blake Griffin duo has been nearly unstoppable during the six-game winning streak. Griffin (20.9 PPG on 54.0% FG, 10.9 RPG) is averaging 21.0 PPG on 65.8% FG and 11.3 RPG, while Paul (19.3 PPG, 8.8 APG) is scoring 18.8 PPG on 50.0% FG and handing out 11.3 APG. They’re also getting some good outside shooting from the combo of Randy Foye (10.1 PPG), who’s hitting 45.8% of his threes during their winning streak, and Nick Young (11.6 PPG in 10 games with the Clippers), who’s knocking down 40.7% from downtown.

Paul had been a thorn in the Lakers’ side playing with the Hornets during last year’s first-round playoff series. He also had 33 points on 12-for-22 shooting in the Clippers’ home win over the Lakers in January. But 11 days later, the Lakers effectively bottled him up, as Paul handed out 12 assists but had just four points on 2-for-8 shooting in a Lakers win. This three-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Clippers:

L.A. LAKERS are 25-46 ATS (35.2%, -25.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was L.A. LAKERS 99.1, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:25 PM

Two sizzling hot teams meet when Celtics host Spurs

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (37-14)

at BOSTON CELTICS (30-22)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 192

The Celtics look to stay red-hot when they host streaking San Antonio on Wednesday night.

Boston hasn’t just fed on some of the leagues doormats during its five-game (SU and ATS) winning streak. On Sunday, it handed the Heat their biggest loss of the year, a 91-72 thrashing in Boston. The Celtics are also 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS (including seven ATS wins in a row) at TD Garden since the All-Star break. The Spurs are also sizzling, having won eight in a row SU (7-1 ATS). Which team will keep its winning streak intact? For the answer, connect to the NBA Weekday Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. The NBA Pass is on a 12-6 ATS run since last Wednesday.

The Spurs hammered the Cavs in Cleveland on Tuesday, a 125-90 victory. They got to rest their starters for the most part, with PG Tony Parker and PF Tim Duncan playing just 23 minutes apiece, and no one playing more than 26 minutes. They’ve been absolutely on fire in their past three games, averaging 118.0 PPG and shooting 54.4% FG and 48.4% from three.

Duncan (15.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) has been outstanding of late, averaging 18.5 PPG on 51.8% FG and 9.5 RPG over his past four contests. SG Manu Ginobili (12.5 PPG) has been coming on strong as well, averaging 12.8 PPG on 55.1% FG and 5.2 APG over his past five games, playing 25.1 MPG off the bench. This three-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Spurs:

SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 ATS (87.5%, +11.8 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 96.8, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The Celtics have won seven of eight, SU and ATS, in large part due to their trademark smothering defense. They’ve allowed 83.8 PPG, 38.6% FG and 25.9% shooting from three during that span. In their past two games, they held Minnesota and Miami, two of the league’s top-five scoring teams, to less than 80 points.

Offensively they should get a boost from the likely return of SG Ray Allen (14.6 PPG, 45.9% from three), who’s missed the last six games because of an ankle injury. Though Boston was more than fine without him, as combo guard Avery Bradley (5.4 PPG) stepped into Allen’s starting spot. Already an elite defender on the perimeter, Bradley also averaged 14.6 PPG on 52.8% FG while starting the last five games. He posted an average plus/minus of +9.8.

SF Paul Pierce (19.1 PPG) has heated up of late, averaging 23.7 PPG on 50.0% FG and 40.0% from three over the last seven games. PF Kevin Garnett (15.6 PPG on 51.7% FG, 8.2 RPG) is averaging 20.3 PPG on 56.1% FG over his last four, and PG Rajon Rondo (12.4 PPG, 11.0 APG) has handed out double-digit assists in each of his last 13 games, averaging 13.5 APG during that span. This strong FoxSheets trend supports the Celtics to win at home:

Play On - Any team (BOSTON) - a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half. (32-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.7%, +18.8 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:26 PM

Marlins open new stadium Wednesday

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (0-0)

at MIAMI MARLINS (0-0)

MLB Regular Season – Miami, FL
First pitch: Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -170, St. Louis +160, Total: 7

After starting in Japan last week, the 2012 MLB season kicks off state-side as the St. Louis Cardinals travel to take on the new-look Miami Marlins for a one-game stand.

This is the beginning of eras for both teams, though quite different ones. The Cardinals must begin life after Albert Pujols, while the Marlins are opening up a new ballpark after making a giant splash in free agency, highlighted by their acquisition of shortstop Jose Reyes. The Marlins send ace Josh Johnson to the mound who will look to prove that he’s healthy once again after injuries held him back in 2011 following a magnificent start. Kyle Lohse will toe the rubber for the Cardinals, with the career 4.64-ERA pitcher sparking far less fear into the hearts of batters than his counterpart on the mound. Although Johnson has battled injuries, he has always been dominant when capable of pitching. Play on him and MIAMI in the opening of its new stadium to begin the season with a convincing win.

The Cardinals will be tested in 2012, seeing how competitive they can be without Albert Pujols. Although they no longer have him, they still have Lance Berkman who found a renaissance last season, cranking 31 long balls with a .301 BA. He’ll be helped in the lineup by newly acquired outfielder Carlos Beltran who has his injury problems, but no trouble being a major force when healthy. Matt Holliday, who has yet to live up to his massive contract, is still a potent threat forming a deep lineup that could make St. Louis dangerous in this year’s weak NL Central. But the real task will be if the journeyman Lohse proves capable of taming Miami’s explosive lineup. Lohse has been hammered by Marlins hitting in his career. In six starts, he has a 5.85 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. In three starts versus Miami in a Cardinals uniform, these numbers are even worse: 8.10 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.

Reyes is coming off a 39-stolen base campaign in which he led the NL in batting at .337. With him atop the lineup, the Marlins are set to be a force so long as his fragile legs stay intact. Beyond Reyes, Miami is filled with youth and loads of potential. Twenty-two-year-old OF Giancarlo Stanton mashed 34 home runs in his sophomore campaign, working up to a solid .893 OPS. Gaby Sanchez hit 19 home runs for the second straight season and has the potential to break out from the first baseman slot. And Hanley Ramirez is healthy again and forms a potent left side of the infield as he moves from short to third base to accommodate Reyes.

On the pitching side, before going down with a shoulder injury that he had been dealing with all year, Josh Johnson pitched to a 1.64 ERA and .185 Opp. BA in nine starts. Despite the injuries he’s just 28 years old and should have a huge season. Johnson has done a nice job with Carlos Beltran in his career (.250 slugging pct in 28 AB), but Berkman and Holliday have combined to hit .333 (7-for-21) with seven RBI against the 6-foot-7 right-hander. Over the past three seasons, Johnson has faced St. Louis four times, going 1-1 with a pedestrian 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:28 PM

Thunder In Wednesday Forecast For Miami Heat

There are 12 big games on the NBA Wednesday schedule, but two really stand out and both will be broadcast on ESPN networks.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat
8:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN2

This is a potential championship preview with Oklahoma City the top team in the Western Conference and Miami number two in the East behind Chicago.

The Thunder proved their mettle against the Bulls with a Sunday home win (92-78 as 6-point favorites). Chicago was playing without injured point guard Derrick Rose.

Oklahoma City was then in a letdown spot against Memphis on Monday night and ‘spit the bit’ with a 94-88 loss as 7½-point home chalk.

Coach Scott Brooks’ bunch has played well against other elite squads, not only beating Chicago, but also blowing out Miami at home on March 25, 103-87 as 2-point favorites. Making statements is par for the course for this youthful and talented squad, with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook one of the best duos in the league. Westbrook had just three assists vs. Memphis, but a big five turnovers, and his play is a huge key going forward.

The Heat dominate at home (21-2 straight up), but do take some nights off on the road (16-12). Their road woes can be attributed to having an eye already towards the playoffs and the wear and tear from the condensed schedule. However, Oklahoma City will have their hands full in this game with it being in South Florida. Also note the small trend that Miami is +5.0 units to the ‘under.’

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
10:30 p.m. (ET) on ESPN

The other big matchup on Wednesday is the Clippers ‘hosting’ the Lakers in the shared Staples Center. The Lakers are +6.0 units to the ‘over’ and this is a bitter and heated rivalry with the addition of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to the formerly ‘little brother’ Clippers.

The home team has won and covered the two matchups between the teams this year. The Lakers are trending the wrong way at 0-6 ATS in their last six, albeit winning four of the games. They are a miserable 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite, dating back to last year.

Center Andrew Bynum has a sprained ankle and should be questionable for Wednesday. Keep checking the Don Best injury report for the latest update. If Bynum is out, it will open space down low for Griffin and the Lakers will also get killed on the glass.

The Lakers did get a recent upgrade at point guard with Ramon Sessions coming from Cleveland. He has size, speed and shot-making ability. They do lose some leadership with Derek Fisher gone, but should get more and more familiar with the talented Sessions as the playoffs draw near.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:31 PM

St. Louis Cardinals Open 2012 Campaign At Miami Marlins

Apr 04, 2012

A lot has changed since the last time the St. Louis Cardinals faced the Miami Marlins in early August.

St. Louis made the playoffs and won the World Series. Manager Tony LaRussa retired. So did pitching coach Dave Duncan. Albert Pujols left the Redbirds for the Angels. Chris Carpenter injured his neck in spring training, causing weakness in his shoulder, and opens the 2012 season on the DL.

And that’s just a few of the changes regarding the Cardinals.

How about for the host Marlins? New team name (out goes Florida, in comes Miami). New uniforms. New, sparkling stadium with a rolling roof (which will come in handy in this locale). New manager in Ozzie Guillen. Lots of new players on the roster, including the new expected catalyst in the lineup, SS Jose Reyes (via the Mets). New energy and philosophy for a once-frugal organization.

They couldn’t pick a better opener for the 2012 NL campaign, if you ask us.

They start playing for keeps on Wednesday night in the sparkling new Marlins Stadium, which was officially christened this past weekend when the Yankees were in town for two exhibition dates. First pitch will be at 7:05 p.m. (ET), with TV coverage provided by ESPN.

A pair of righties, the Cards’ well-traveled Kyle Lohse and the Marlins’ injury-repaired Josh Johnson, will be on the mound. An early check of the Don Best odds screen notes than Johnson and the Marlins are a significant favorite, priced at -175 on the win, with the take-back on Lohse and the Redbirds at +155. The Run Line provides better price value on Miami, which gets a +130 when laying the run, while St. Louis is -150, plus the extra digit. The total is 7-under (-115) at the majority of Las Vegas wagering outlets.

Lohse didn’t fare too well in a pair of starts last season vs. the pre-Ozzie Marlins, allowing eight runs (all earned) and 13 hits in 11 IP over the two starts. As has been his career pattern, however, Lohse did pitch well last April, fashioning a 4-1 mark with a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the Marlins’ Johnson is looking to recover from an injury-shortened 2011 campaign that ended for him in mid-May due to shoulder problems. At that point, Johnson appeared well on his way to the All-Star game, having posted a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while fashioning a 3-1 record. Johnson did, however, suffer his only loss of his abbreviated 2011 stint at St. Louis on May 5 when allowing five runs and eight hits over 7 1/3 IP in an eventual 6-3 loss.

Over his seven-year career, however, Johnson has not been overwhelming vs. the Redbirds, winning just once in five starts while posting a 3.60 ERA.

Of course, the dynamics are different for these squads than at any time in recent years. Expectations were not this high in Miami even before the Marlins’ World Series years in 1997 and 2003. A healthy Johnson, along with ex-White Sox ace Mark Buehrle, anchor a potentially-dominating rotation, while the addition of ex-Padre Heath Bell via free agency has provided Ozzie with a top-notch closer.

It’s the addition of SS Reyes, however, that has South Florida abuzz, and the possibility that he could be the perfect table-setter for an offense that will put more pressure on opponents on the basepaths with Reyes’ presence along with underrated CF Emilio Bonifacio, who stole 40 bases a year ago.

All eyes in Miami will nonetheless be on the mercurial Hanley Ramirez, moved from SS to 3B due to Reyes’ arrival. Ramirez, whose effort and demeanor have come under scrutiny in the past, seemed to enjoy his new position in spring and has developed quite a friendship with Reyes, both even dying their hair a new shade of “Marlins orange” in spring. Most observers believe that Guillen is also adept at pushing the right buttons and is likely going to be a big bonus for Ramirez this season.

Despite their World Series crown last fall, the Cards nonetheless seem to be flying a bit under the radar this spring. Staff ace Carpenter, who would have been expected to get the opening-day assignment, remains on the shelf, and remains a potential concern in St. Louis. New skipper Mike Matheny does, however, have a healthy Adam Wainwright after the big righty missed all of 2011 with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Wainwright likely waits until this weekend at Milwaukee to make his 2012 debut.

The Cardinals are still cautiously optimistic that their offense can produce runs even minus Pujols. Lance Berkman, moved to RF last year because of Pujols’ presence, is back to his more-comfy position at 1B, and newly-added OF Carlos Beltran is not the worst replacement for Pujols in the batting order. Matt Holliday is also capable of carrying an offense. Moreover, Matheny is hoping that postseason heroes such as 3B David Freese and C Yadier Molina pick up where they left off.

NL Central sources also suggest the re-signing of SS Rafael Furcal was an underrated development in the offseason. A shaky St. Louis infield defense was strengthened significantly by Furcal’s trade deadline addition from the Dodgers late in July and proved to be a key development in the Cards’ late-season charge to the playoffs and eventual postseason glory.

**Letswinalot** · 04-04-2012, 07:32 PM

GL Im actually thinking about betting unders on the 7s in the NBA. Its about time to decide.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:34 PM

Inside the Paint - Wednesday

April 4, 2012

First, our apologies go out to all bettors who had the Knicks last night. New York had a 15-point (87-72) lead over Indiana heading into the fourth quarter and they were getting six points too. Sure enough, Indiana outscored New York 40-17 for the win and cover.

Bad beats in this shortened season have been occurring non-stop and outcomes like the one above have become routine. You can’t handicap them, rather just accept them and move forward.

With that being said, let’s break down Wednesday’s 12-game card.

Oklahoma City at Miami: A lot of pundits are expecting these teams to clash in this year’s NBA Finals and deservingly so. If that’s the case, we could be crowning OKC as the champs considering the team has owned Miami. On Mar. 25, Oklahoma City humbled Miami 103-87 in wire-to-wire fashion, which was the fourth win and cover in the last five encounters against the Heat. Despite those stats, Miami is listed as a 2 ½-point home favorite tonight and that could be considered too low. The Heat has won 16 straight at American Airlines Arena and the majority of them have been blowouts. The Thunder was upset at home by Memphis (88-94) on Monday and it should be noted that Scott Brooks’ squad has only suffered back-to-back losses once this season, which happened on Jan. 3. OKC has gone 17-8 SU and 15-10 ATS on the road this season and that includes a 4-2 mark against Eastern Conference teams. Dwyane Wade (knee) skipped last night’s win against Philadelphia (99-93) but is listed as ‘probable’ for tonight.

L.A. Lakers at L.A. Clippers: The Lakers and Clippers will meet for the third and final time tonight at Staples Center. The first two encounters between the pair were split, with the host winning each time and the ‘over’ cashed in both affairs. The Clips have opened as three-point favorites and the total is hovering around 188 points for what’s expected to be an intense battle, especially since the Lakers division lead over the Clippers has shrunk to 1 ½-games. The Clips will bring a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) into this matchup, five of the victories coming at this venue. The Lakers have won three straight but gamblers haven’t been pleased with this squad, who is 0-8 ATS in their last eight, and that includes last night’s non-cover against New Jersey. Not only are the Lakers playing on zero days rest but this will be their fourth game in five nights. Center Andrew Bynum (knee) missed the win over the Nets and is ‘questionable’ for tonight.

Under the Radar

San Antonio (37-14 SU, 32-18 ATS) and Boston (30-22 SU, 26-26 ATS) are similar in a lot of ways. The two teams have championship experience and they both enter tonight’s matchup on fire. The Spurs have won seven straight (6-1 ATS), which includes a blowout win at Cleveland (125-90) last night. Meanwhile, Boston has ripped off five consecutive wins and covers. The Celtics have allowed an average of 80.5 PPG during this stretch, and that includes holding Miami to 72 points on Sunday. San Antonio opened as a short road favorite (-1) and that shouldn’t be surprising considering its record (16-10 SU, 14-11 ATS) away from home. Total players saw the opener jump from 192 to 193. The Spurs have watched the ‘over’ go 19-7 (73%) on the road this season.

Back-to-Back Spots

There are 12 teams that will be playing on no rest tonight.

Indiana: 10-9 SU, 8-11 ATS
Toronto: 3-13 SU, 7-8 ATS
Philadelphia: 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS
San Antonio: 9-5 SU, 7-6 ATS
Charlotte: 2-14 SU, 6-10 ATS
Miami: 8-7 SU, 5-10 ATS
Golden State: 6-8 SU, 10-4 ATS
Cleveland: 4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS
Memphis: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS (*This will be the third game in three nights for the Grizzlies. They rallied past Golden State (98-94) but failed to cover the number. Tonight, they’re catching six points at Dallas. On the season, teams facing this daunting situation have gone 18-16 ATS. The ‘under’ has gone 18-16 as well. Results)
Phoenix: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
New Jersey: 6-12 SU, 8-10 ATS
L.A. Lakers: 8-8 SU, 6-10 ATS

Total Talk

Milwaukee still remains the top ‘over’ team in the league (33-19) and that’s helped with a 17-6 ‘over’ mark at home. Tonight, the Bucks welcome the Cavaliers and the number is bouncing around 206 points. Cleveland’s offense has been gross during its current seven-game losing streak, but the defense has been just as worse. These two teams have met three times this season, which includes Milwaukee’s 121-84 win over the Cavaliers last Friday. Surprisingly, that game went ‘under’ (205) but the other two affairs saw 225 and 220 combined points posted. The pace should be there but will the shots fall? Point guard Kyrie Irving (shoulder) is out for the Cavaliers.

Memphis has watched the ‘under’ cash in five straight and it’s playing its third game in three nights (see above). The Grizzlies have been an ‘under’ team (18-9) on the road, plus Dallas doesn’t run and gun as much as it once did plus Jason Kidd (groin) is 'out.' Memphis beat Dallas 96-85 on Feb. 29 and the combined points just slid ‘under’ the closing number of 182. Knowing all these facts, the opener for tonight’s game was 184 and it got pushed up to 185. Hmmm…

Every April in the NBA you’ll always have matchups that feature non-playoff teams and I often played the ‘over’ blindly, believing that a loose style and lack of defense would be apparent. Tonight’s matchup between Portland and New Jersey fits that billing and both teams have scorers that can fill it up. Portland has seen the ‘over’ go 5-0 in its last five and the total (196) seems a tad short. The point-spread (Blazers -8) also seems a little off, considering the Nets have covered four straight (3-1 SU) and Portland is 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:36 PM

Hoop Trends - Wednesday

April 4, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Warriors are 12-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since February 08, 2009 after a game on the road in which they had at least ten fewer assists than in the game before.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Jazz are 0-11 OU (-10.1 ppg) since January 19, 2007 with at least one day of rest off a win as a dog in which they trailed by 10+ points.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Spurs are 0-11 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since January 07, 2006 with no rest after a win in which Tim Duncan had more rebounds than points.

CHOICE TREND:

The Raptors are 10-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since February 13, 2006 with no rest after a win at home in which Jose Calderon scored fewer than 10 points.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Warriors are 13-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since January 04, 2012 after a loss in which Dorell Wright scored fewer than 10 points.

The Pacers are 0-11 ATS (-13.5 ppg) since March 19, 1997 with no rest after a home win in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.

The Cavaliers are 10-0-1 OU (10.5 ppg) since December 21, 2004 as a dog after a game at home in which they had at least ten more assists than in the game before.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:38 PM

Cardinals vs. Marlins

April 3, 2012

Even though the Mariners and Athletics logged a pair of games in Japan last week, the 2012 regular season opens in the United States on Wednesday night in South Florida. The Miami Marlins unveil its new stadium, revamped lineup, quirky logo, and fiery manager against the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals. The Redbirds start their title defense without three of their key pieces that led them to a championship last October.

Longtime manager Tony LaRussa retired after 16 seasons and two titles at the helm, while former MVP Albert Pujols took his talents to the West Coast by signing a long-term deal with the Angels. The third piece of the puzzle that won't begin the season with the Cards is ace Chris Carpenter, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a nerve irritation in his right shoulder. However, St. Louis received some help in the lineup with the departure of Pujols by inking free-agent Carlos Beltran to a two-year deal, while retaining last season's comeback player of the year in Lance Berkman.

The Marlins moved from North Miami to the old site of the Orange Bowl to begin a new era in an organization that has been around since 1993. The first big move from a personnel perspective was the hiring of former White Sox skipper Ozzie Guillen to manage this club that finished 72-90 and last place in the National League East. The front office opened up their checkbooks with the signings of shortstop Jose Reyes, southpaw Mark Buehrle, and closer Heath Bell, while trading for ex-Cubs' ace Carlos Zambrano.

Miami turns to an old face to open up Marlins Park as Josh Johnson will take the mound on Wednesday. The tall right-hander was shut down after only nine starts last season due to right shoulder inflammation, as Johnson posted a 3-1 record and ERA of 1.64. Since the Marlins were out of the race in mid-June, there was no need to rush Johnson back into the rotation, even though he allowed one earned run or less in seven of his final eight starts.

Johnson faced the Cardinals once last season at Busch Stadium, as the Marlins blew a late 3-2 lead in a 6-3 defeat on May 5, 2011. St. Louis scored four runs in the eighth inning, capped off by a three-run homer by Berkman off Marlins' reliever Mike Dunn. Johnson took the loss as the two runners on base were charged to him, resulting in his first and only defeat of the season.

With Carpenter on the mend, the Cardinals turn to veteran Kyle Lohse in the opener. The right-hander became a pleasant surprise in 2011 following the unexpected injury to Adam Wainwright in spring training, as Lohse compiled a 14-8 record. Lohse's 3.39 ERA was the lowest of his 11-year career, while putting together a solid 8-3 mark away from Busch Stadium in 16 starts. The Cardinals won five of Lohse's six outings as a road underdog of +120 or more, including Game 3 of the World Series at Texas as a 'dog of +165.

The Marlins cashed in four of Johnson's five home starts last season, all of which were quality outings. Florida failed to profit in 15 games as home favorites of -150 or more in 2011, posting an 8-7 record for -3.35 units. On the flip side, the Redbirds made money as a road 'dog of +150 last season, compiling nearly three units despite a 4-4 ledger.

Miami is listed as a $1.70 home favorites at most spots with several books listing the Marlins as $1.80 'chalk.' The total is set at 7 with a lean towards the 'under,' as runs may be at a premium in this spacious park. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN starting at 7:00 PM EST.

**StarDust Bum** · 04-04-2012, 07:43 PM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 4

Hot Teams
-- Pacers won three of last four games; they're 4-7-1 as road favorites.
-- Raptors won three of last four games. are 13-7 as an underdog of 4+ points.
-- Boston won its last eight home games, covered last seven. Spurs won their last eight games (6-2 vs spread).
-- Miami won its last five home games, but is 7-9 vs spread in its last 16 at home. Thunder won/covered five of last seven road games.
-- Nuggets won three of last four games, all on the road.
-- Warriors covered eight of their last nine road games.
-- Grizzlies won five of their last six games.
-- Suns won three of their last four road games.
-- Nets covered five of their last six games (4-2 SU).
-- Clippers won their last six home games (5-1 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Wizards lost seven of their last eight games.
-- 76ers lost seven of their last eleven games.
-- Atlanta is 5-10 as home favorite of 4+ points. Bobcats lost last eight games, but covered three of last four.
-- New Orleans lost six of its last seven home games.
-- Minnesota lost its last three games, by 21-13-8 points.
-- Milwaukee lost three of its last four home games. Cavaliers lost last eight games, failed to cover last seven.
-- Mavericks are 3-7 vs spread in their last ten home games.
-- Jazz lost five of their last six games.
-- Portland covered only three of last ten home games.
-- Lakers are 0-9 vs spread in last nine games at Staples Center.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Pacers: 6th game/8 nites. Wizards: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Raptors: 3rd game/4 nites. 76ers: 2nd nite in row, after two off.
-- Spurs: 2nd nite in row, after two off. Celtics: Last 2 nites off.
-- Bobcats: 2nd nite in row, after two off. Hawks: Last 3 nites off.
-- Thunder: 3rd game/4 nites. Heat: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Nuggets: Last 2 nites off. Hornets: Last 2 nites off.
-- Warriors: 3rd game/4 nites. T'wolves: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Cavaliers: 2nd nite in row, after two off. Bucks: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Grizzlies: 3rd nite in row, 5th/6 nites. Mavericks: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Suns: 3rd game/4 nites. Jazz: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Nets: 2nd nite in row, after two off. Trailblazers: 5th game/7 nites.
-- Lakers: 4th game/5 nites. Clippers: 4th game/6 nites.

Totals
-- Last three Indiana games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Toronto road games went over the total.
-- 11 of Spurs' last 12 road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under the total; four of last five Miami games went over.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Denver's last eight games.
-- Six of Warriors' last eight road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-2 in Milwaukee's last nine home games.
-- Seven of last eight Memphis games stayed under total.
-- Six of last nine Phoenix road games went over the total.
-- Last five Portland games went over the total. Five of last seven New Jersey road games stayed under.
-- Three of Lakers' last four games stayed under the total.

Back-to-Back
-- Pacers are 5-4 vs spread if they won the night before.
-- Raptors are 1-4 vs spread on road if they played at home night before. 76ers are 3-4 vs spread if they lost the night before.
-- Spurs are 2-7-1 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Charlotte is 4-7 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Miami is 5-10 against spread when it played the night before.
-- Warriors are 6-2 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Cavaliers are 3-5 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Memphis is 6-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
-- Suns are 9-6-1 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Nets are 4-3 vs spread on road if they played the night before.
-- Lakers are 2-3 vs spread at Staples if they played night before.

**Kaptain** · 04-04-2012, 07:59 PM

get em StarDust

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