Announcement

**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 07:49 AM

Sunday’s betting tips: Henson still questionable

Who’s hot

NCAAB: Lehigh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven non-conference games and 6-0 ATS in its last six as an underdog.

NCAAB: Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last eight overall.

NBA: The over is 5-0 in the Jazz's last five overall and 5-1 in the Lakers' last six overall.

NBA: The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Eastern Conference.

NHL: The Penguins are 11-0 in their last 11 overall

NHL: The Jets are 4-0 in their last four home games.

Who’s not

NCAAB: Creighton is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven overall.

NCAAB: Ohio is 1-4 ATS in its last five overall.

NBA: The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

NBA: The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.

NHL: The Blue Jackets are 2-6 in their last eight trips to Calgary

NHL: The Ducks are 1-4 in their last five overall.

Key stat

14-0 - Drexel's home record this season. They may not be in the NCAA Tournament, but don't forget about the Dragons. They played like a team not too happy about an exclusion from the Big Dance and took the anger out on Central Florida with an 81-56 blowout on Wednesday. Drexel is 9-4 ATS on its home court after shattering the -6.5 spread. Next up for the Dragons is a home date with Northern Iowa on Sunday. The Panthers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine road games.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

North Carolina forward John Henson is the most talked about injured player all by himself now that Ryan Kelly and Duke are officially out of the tournament. Henson was injured in UNC's ACC Tournament opener and missed his team's final two games. He also did not play in the Tar Heels' round of 64 blowout win over Vermont. Head coach Roy Williams said after Friday's contest that Henson had a better than 50-50 chance of playing on Sunday against Creighton. However, Williams said he was unable to update those percentages when asked about it on Saturday. It is likely Henson will yet again be a gametime decision.

Biggest games on the slate

NCAA round of 32 matchups

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-8.5, 188.5)

Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers

Notable quotable

“Whoever the fans were — I don’t know who they were. I know we didn’t come with many, but I’ll be whoever’s team. Whoever wants to root for us, come on, jump on the bandwagon. We’ll take it. We didn’t have any pressure. We’re the 15 seed.” -- Norfolk state guard Rodney McCauley on the crowd support at the CenturyLink Center in Omaha, NE for his team, which upset No. 2 seed Missouri on Friday. The Spartans will go up against seventh-seeded Florida on Sunday as they look to make a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16.

Tips and notes

N.C. State lost four in a row in late February and appeared to be on the fast track out of NCAA Tournament consideration. Instead, the Wolfpack won five of its last six (5-0-1 ATS) in the regular season and ACC Tournament, with its only loss coming to UNC 69-67 in the conference semifinals. C.J. Leslie and three-point marksman Scott Wood get most of the pub, but Georgetown will have to watch out for 6'8'', 250-pound forward Richard Howell on Sunday. Howell has scored in double-figures in three straight games and poured in 22 while making 10 of 12 shots in a round of 64 win over San Diego State.

Nene, a trade-deadline acquisition by Washington from Denver, is expected to take a physical with the Wizards on Saturday night. However, he will most likely not accompany the team to Memphis for Sunday's game against the Grizzlies. Instead, look for Nene to get in two practices with Washington before making his debut on Wednesday at New Jersey. The Wizards won their first game without the departed JaVale McGee and Nick Young over New Orleans on Thursday, but they were handled 102-88 at Atlanta on Friday.

Turn back the clock on the PGA Tour just a bit this week, because Retief Goosen and Jim Furyk are tied for the lead (-11) at the Transitions Championship heading into Sunday's final round. Goosen has seven career wins on the PGA Tour, but none since 2009. However, his last win (March 22, 2009) came at this very same Transitions Championship. That may bode well for Goosen, who is the second favorite (+400) behind Furyk (+300). Also watch out for Luke Donald (+700), who is tied for seventh but a mere three shots out of the lead. The world No. 2 won twice on the PGA Tour in 2011.

**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 07:52 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six prop bets for the coming baseball season.........

-- Over/under on HRs for Albert Pujols, 35.5.

-- Over/under on hits for Ichiro Suzuki, 190.5.

-- Over/under on HRs for Adam Dunn, 18.5.

-- Runs scored on hits for Ian Kinsler, 150.5.

-- Over/under on saves for Jonathan Papelbon, 36.5.

-- Over/under on wins for Yu Darvish, 14.5.

******************

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday.........

13) VCU went up 57-48 on Indiana with 12:20 left; I'm sitting there trying to figure out when this tournament turned into a Shaka-thon, but then the Rams stopped scoring points. VCU was outscored 15-4 over the last 12:20 by an Indiana team whose point guard blew his knee out last week, so we will be deluged this week by tons of Kentucky-Indiana stories. Teams play in Atlanta next week, in a rematch of their December thriller at Indiana.

12) Indiana is in the Sweet 16 for the first time in ten years.

11) Kansas State's Jamar Samuels was held out of Saturday's 75-59 loss to Syracuse because his AAU coach gave him $200; are you kidding? School is protecting itself from using an ineligible player and forfeiting the $1M+ they get for playing this March, but its ridiculous to suspend a kid for this, it just totally lacks common sense. Thats politics for you.

10) One quick question that bears asking: How did anyone find out about the $200? Did the kid post it on Facebook?

9) Ohio State didn't get a point from its bench in 27 minutes, but the five Ohio State starters scored enough to fend off Gonzaga, 73-66. Best game I've seen John Stockton's son play for the Zags.

8) 49ers got suckered into signing Mario Manningham to a 2-year contract, and they're now involved in the Peyton Manning drama, after they signed Randy Moss. Wow, imagine if they didn't go 13-3 last year? Its very hard to believe they would jettison Alex Smith after his great 2011 season.

7) So I'm watching games in a teletheater where they also have horse racing; there is this horrible accident in the 11th race at Gulfstream; hope all of the jockeys are OK. Couple of them might've been trampled by a horse or two.

6) Andy Pettitte is coming back, again? Does this mean the Bronx Bombers are deperate for pitching, or does Pettitte's family like his paychecks more than it likes to be around him all summer?

5) Used to be that when a shot hit back of the rim, it had zero chance to go into the basket; heard an explanation why shots occasionally hit the back of the rim and fall in-- think ESPN's Dan Dakich explained it. They changed the makeup of the basketball a few years ago, it is softer now, so once in a great while, shots take a weird bounce and go in when they shouldn't. Just wish it wasn't always when the other team was shooting.....lolol

4) Would love to know why Vanderbilt center Festus Ezili didn't start for the Commodores; he sat out for first 4:00, and Vandy fell behind 7-2. As it turns out, they only caught the Badgers once, and lost by 3 points. Hope it was some hideous crime the kid committed to end the season and the kid's career for. But how bad could it be, since he only sat out less than 4:00?

3) So Iowa State makes a run early in second half to tie Kentucky 42-42; next thing you know, Wildcats are back up by 18 points. Wow are they an explosive team!!!! Cyclones played well, didn't shoot it very well and lost by 16. Fred Hoiberg did a nice job reviving the ISU program this winter; he becomes a lot smarter if Royce White comes back to Ames in the fall.

2) Its interesting to watch games without sound; you get a real feel for how much contact these officials let go, especially in March. There are certain refs, though who love to call the charge, and so they have kids flopping like dead squirrels all game long. Terrific. Kids with less talent win because they can fall down well, and the refs reward them for it. Its not basketball.

1) After Sunday's game, we''ll be down to 16 teams and I'll have a headache to take to work Monday morning. Been a fun three days of basketball this weekend; wonder how Norfolk State/Lehigh will do Sunday?

**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 07:55 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Cincinnati vs. Florida State
The Seminoles look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Florida State is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MARCH 18

Game 717-718: Creighton vs. North Carolina (5:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 65.672; North Carolina 72.853
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7; 164
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2; 159
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (+8 1/2); Over

Game 719-720: Lehigh vs. Xavier (7:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 59.896; Xavier 65.511
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 5 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Xavier by 3; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-3); Under

Game 721-722: NC State vs. Georgetown (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 65.563; Georgetown 71.741
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 6; 136
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 4; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-4); Over

Game 723-724: St. Louis vs. Michigan State (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 67.889; Michigan State 75.990
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 8; 119
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-6 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Cincinnati vs. Florida State (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 68.051; Florida State 71.681
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 3 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Florida State by 2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-2); Over

Game 727-728: Ohio vs. South Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 65.860; South Florida 65.886
Dunkel Line: Even; 120
Vegas Line: South Florida by 3; 114
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+3); Over

Game 729-730: Norfolk State vs. Florida (6:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 53.658; Florida 65.465
Dunkel Line: Florida by 12; 139
Vegas Line: Florida by 14 1/2; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (+14 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Purdue vs. Kansas (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 68.071; Kansas 76.839
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 9; 147
Vegas Line: Kansas by 7 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-7 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: Northern Iowa at Drexel (11:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 58.088; Drexel 69.779
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 11 1/2; 116
Vegas Line: Drexel by 6 1/2; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-6 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: Bucknell at Nevada (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.925; Nevada 61.426
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 1; 137
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+3); Over

Game 737-738: Iowa at Oregon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 63.368; Oregon 72.955
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 9 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Oregon by 7; 155
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-7); Under

Game 739-740: USC Upstate at Old Dominion (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC Upstate 54.402; Old Dominion 65.040
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 10 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 8; 133
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-8); Over

Game 741-742: Manhattan at Fairfield (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.943; Fairfield 62.745
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 9; 128
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 5; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-5); Under

Game 743-744: Weber State at Loyola Marymount (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 56.358; Loyola Marymount 58.579
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 2; 149
Vegas Line: Loyola Marymount by 4; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (+4); Over

**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:04 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, March 18

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CREIGHTON (29 - 5) vs. N CAROLINA (30 - 5) - 3/18/2012, 5:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LEHIGH (27 - 7) vs. XAVIER (22 - 12) - 3/18/2012, 7:45 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NC STATE (23 - 12) vs. GEORGETOWN (24 - 8) - 3/18/2012, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGETOWN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGETOWN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
GEORGETOWN is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGETOWN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NC STATE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NC STATE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
NC STATE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGETOWN is 1-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
GEORGETOWN is 1-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAINT LOUIS (26 - 7) vs. MICHIGAN ST (28 - 7) - 3/18/2012, 2:45 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (25 - 10) vs. FLORIDA ST (25 - 9) - 3/18/2012, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OHIO U (28 - 7) vs. S FLORIDA (22 - 13) - 3/18/2012, 7:10 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NORFOLK ST (26 - 9) vs. FLORIDA (24 - 10) - 3/18/2012, 6:10 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PURDUE (22 - 12) vs. KANSAS (28 - 6) - 3/18/2012, 8:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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N IOWA (20 - 13) at DREXEL (28 - 6) - 3/18/2012, 11:00 AM
Top Trends for this game.
DREXEL is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DREXEL is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DREXEL is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
DREXEL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons.
DREXEL is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
DREXEL is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DREXEL is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
DREXEL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
N IOWA is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUCKNELL (25 - 9) at NEVADA (27 - 6) - 3/18/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEVADA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
NEVADA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEVADA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
NEVADA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEVADA is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IOWA (18 - 16) at OREGON (23 - 9) - 3/18/2012, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 68-96 ATS (-37.6 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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USC UPSTATE (21 - 12) at OLD DOMINION (21 - 13) - 3/18/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLD DOMINION is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MANHATTAN (21 - 12) at FAIRFIELD (20 - 14) - 3/18/2012, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MANHATTAN is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
MANHATTAN is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MANHATTAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games this season.
MANHATTAN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games this season.
MANHATTAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 4-2 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
FAIRFIELD is 5-1 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WEBER ST (25 - 6) at LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT (20 - 12) - 3/18/2012, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WEBER ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
WEBER ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT is 67-96 ATS (-38.6 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:09 AM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Sunday, March 18

CREIGHTON vs. N CAROLINA, 5:15 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Greensboro Col. - Greensboro, NC
CREIGHTON: 1-5 ATS off BB wins by 6 pts or less
N CAROLINA: 0-8 ATS playing 2nd road game in 3 days

LEHIGH vs. XAVIER, 7:45 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Greensboro Col. - Greensboro, NC
LEHIGH: 8-1 ATS in lined games
XAVIER: 1-5 ATS if underdog last game

NC STATE vs. GEORGETOWN, 12:15 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH
NC STATE: 14-4 ATS on neutral court
GEORGETOWN: 7-0 ATS in non-conference games

SAINT LOUIS vs. MICHIGAN ST, 2:45 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Nationwide Arena - Columbus, OH
SAINT LOUIS: 9-2 ATS vs. non-conference
MICHIGAN ST: 17-7 ATS when seeded 4 or higher

CINCINNATI vs. FLORIDA ST, 9:40 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN
CINCINNATI: 11-3 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
FLORIDA ST: 5-1 Under in NCAA Tournament games

OHIO U vs. S FLORIDA, 7:10 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Bridgestone Arena - Nashville, TN
OHIO U: 8-1 ATS vs. non-conference
S FLORIDA: 23-9 Under in all games

NORFOLK ST vs. FLORIDA, 6:10 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Centurylink Center - Omaha, NE
NORFOLK ST: 6-1 ATS this year
FLORIDA: 0-4 ATS off BB ATS wins

PURDUE vs. KANSAS, 8:40 PM - NCAA Tournament - Third Round - Centurylink Center - Omaha, NE
PURDUE: n/a
KANSAS: 1-5 ATS off cover as double digit favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**StarDust Bum** · 03-18-2012, 08:10 AM

Good Morning Dog.....Good Luck Today Buddy.......

**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:11 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, March 18

Since 2005, second round favorites of 8+ points are 16-10-1 against the spread. Creighton's McDermott/UNC's Barnes were teammates in high school in Ames, IA. Bluejays won last eight games, with five of eight by 2 or less points or in OT. Bluejays make 42.5% on the arc, 55.5% inside it; they've won 15 road/neutral court games. North Carolina won by 49 when they played Evansville of MVC in December; Purple Aces gave Creighton fits in two of their three meetings, beating them once. Doesn't sound like North Carolina's Henson will play here, which makes Tar Heels very thin up front. #1 seeds are 18-11-1 in this round since '05.

#15 seeds who won a first round game are 1-2-1 vs spread in next round, with only one of the four losses by less than 11 points. In addition to Lehigh's win over Duke Friday, their other top 60 games were a 9-point loss to Iowa State, a 9-point loss to Michigan State. Mountain Hawks held Duke to 6-26 on arc in huge upset Friday. Xavier outscored Notre Dame 18-4 in foul line in a game they trailed by 10 in second half. Since '07, 2nd round favorites of less than 5 points are 19-12-1 vs spread. Lehigh won its last nine games; they're #7 foul shooting team, #14 at protecting ball. Xavier started season 8-0, then went 10-11 in their next 21 games, but have now won four of their last five contests.

#3 seeds are 11-7 vs spread in their last 18 second round games against #6 seeds. NC State won five of its last six games; they lost to Syracuse at home by 16 in only game vs Big East opponent this year. Wolfpack is 1-7 vs top 30 teams, with only win vs #30 Texas- they shot 58.5% on night as they pulled away from San Diego State at end of 79-65 win that was lot closer than score indicates. Lot of experts picked Georgetown to get upset by Belmont, but they dispatched the A-Sun champs 74-59, as Hoyas shot 61% from floor. ACC teams are 6-3 in second round games the last three years; Big East teams are 20-14 in 2nd round since 2006.

Michigan State won/covered five of its last six second round games; they shot 58.8% from floor in glorified workout Friday, 89-67 win over LIU. Spartans will get lot more resistance from Saint Louis squad that is 10-2 in its last 12 games; Billikens are a top 50 defensive rebounding team, so if Majerus can take away State's #1 option on offense, Spartans could struggle to score. SLU held Memphis to 38.9% from floor, 2-15 on arc in Friday's upset win. Spartans hold opponents to 29.7% from behind the arc. Big Dozen road favorites of 7 or less points are 12-6 vs spread. #1 seeds are 18-11-1 in this round since '05. Atlantic 14 road favorites of 7 or less points are 18-12 vs spread this season.

Cincinnati/Florida State were once rivals in old Metro Conference, but Seminoles bolted for ACC. FSU had its hands full with St Bonaventure Friday in game that was tied with 5:45 left- they lost to UConn in OT in its only game vs Big East opponent this season. Seminoles are nation's #6 team in blocked shots, but turn ball over 23.5% of time, awful lot of turnovers. Cincinnati was up 19 in first half vs Texas Friday, blew the lead, then won anyway; they're #314 team in country from the foul line, making only 63.7%. In what figures to be a tight game, thats not good. ACC road favorites of less than 5 points are 6-3 vs spread; Big East road underdogs of less than 5 points are 5-7.

South Florida-Ohio is 11th matchup between 12-13 seeds; the favorite was 9-1 vs spread in the first ten, with only non-cover Valparaiso's OT win over Florida State in '98. USF missed 22 straight shots, didn't score for 10:48 Friday and still won by 14 points; amazing. USF is a terrific defensive team and a horrific one on offense; they beat Miami 56-47 in its only game vs MAC opponent this season. Ohio lost at Louisville by 5 in November, its highest profile non-league game. MAC road dogs of 5 or less points are just 4-9 vs spread this season. ACC road favorites of 5 or less points are 6-3. Ohio forces turnovers on 26.5% of possessions, #2 in country.

Only once before has a 15-seed played a 7-seed (they've played 10-seed three times); back in '93, Temple (-11) beat Santa Clara 68-57. Broncos had a guard named Nash on that team. #15 seeds are 1-2-1 vs spread in 2nd round games. Norfolk State has eight kids from NYC area- they got beat twice by Marquette, by 31-2 points, and also lost to Va Tech by 12 and beat TCU by 13. Spartans are shooting just 32.7% fron arc for year, but they were 10-19 Friday, outrebounding Mizzou by 12. SEC faves of 15+ points are 7-19-2 against the spread this season. Florida is 7-0 this season against teams ranked lower than #180, with only one of the wins by less than 20 points.

Kansas has had its struggles in first round of NCAAs, but since '03, they won/covered six of seven second round games, with none of the wins by less than 12 points. Jayhawks beat Ohio State by 11 in their only game vs Big Dozen opponent. Purdue was -11 on boards in its 72-69 win over St Mary's. Boilermakers turns ball over less than any team in country; they're 7-5 vs spread as an underdog this year. Over last 7+ seasons, #2 seeds are 12-16-1 vs spread in this round, 5-5 when facing a #10 seed. Nine of last 11 Purdue games went over the total. Since '03, underdogs from Big Dozen are 9-8 against the spread in the second round.

Other tournaments
Drexel won 26 of its last 28 games, crushing UCF by 26 in its first game in this tournament; Dragons beat MVC doormat Bradley 73-68 back in December. Northern Iowa plays a slower pace, is very good (#26) with protecting the ball; they beat Old Dominion by 17, lost to VCU by 9 in its games this season against CAA teams.

**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:17 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 18

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Trend Report
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11:00 AM
NORTHERN IOWA vs. DREXEL
Northern Iowa is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Iowa's last 6 games on the road
Drexel is 20-1 SU in its last 21 games
Drexel is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 games

2:15 PM
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. GEORGETOWN
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgetown's last 6 games
Georgetown is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

2:45 PM
SAINT LOUIS vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
Michigan State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

3:00 PM
USC UPSTATE vs. OLD DOMINION
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Old Dominion's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Old Dominion's last 6 games at home

3:00 PM
BUCKNELL vs. NEVADA
No trends available
Nevada is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Nevada is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games

4:00 PM
MANHATTAN vs. FAIRFIELD
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Manhattan's last 6 games on the road
Manhattan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Fairfield
Fairfield is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Fairfield is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Manhattan

5:00 PM
IOWA vs. OREGON
Iowa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Iowa is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oregon is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oregon is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home

5:15 PM
CREIGHTON vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games

6:00 PM
WEBER STATE vs. LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Weber State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Loyola Marymount's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Loyola Marymount's last 8 games

6:10 PM
NORFOLK STATE vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

7:10 PM
OHIO vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of South Florida's last 12 games
South Florida is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

7:45 PM
LEHIGH vs. XAVIER
No trends available
Xavier is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Xavier is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games

8:40 PM
PURDUE vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

9:40 PM
CINCINNATI vs. FLORIDA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida State's last 9 games
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:19 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 18

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NCAA previews & picks: Sunday's East Region action
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No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 3 Florida State Seminoles (-2, 127)

THE STORY: Florida State barely avoided an early exit and is now on the verge of returning to the Sweet 16 for a second straight season. Standing in the Seminoles' way is former Metro Conference rival Cincinnati, one of the toughest teams the Big East has to offer. Florida State was a trendy Final Four pick heading into the tournament after winning the ACC tournament for the first time, but struggled with tiny St. Bonaventure in its first game.

This contest may to come down to the wire as well, with defense expected to dominate this game. The Seminoles are fifth in the nation in field goal defense (38.1) and the Bearcats allow a mere 61.1 points per game (fourth in Big East). Florida State leads the all-time series 22-15, but hasn’t faced Cincinnati since 2008. The winner will play either No. 2 seed Ohio State or seventh-seeded Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. It would be Cincinnati's first Sweet 16 appearance since 2001.

TV: 9:40 p.m. ET, TBS

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (25-9, 12-4 ACC): The Seminoles' depth is their strength (eight players average at least six points), but they also have something that most tournament teams don’t in 27-year-old senior center Bernard James. James is a former Air Force sergeant and is unfazed by the pressures of the NCAA tournament. He helped the Seminoles overcome an 0-for-7 performance from leading scorer Michael Snaer by recording 19 points and nine rebounds in the 66-63 win over 14th-seeded St. Bonaventure. The Seminoles trailed for all but five minutes with Snaer, the ACC tournament MVP, battling foul trouble. James and senior point guard Luke Loucks (13 points, seven rebounds, six assists) were the only players in double figures.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (25-10, 12-6 Big East): The Bearcats, true to their regular-season form, had four players in double figures in a 65-59 win over Texas in the Round of 64 Friday. Cincinnati held Texas to 16 percent shooting (4 of 25) in the first half and then survived a furious rally. Senior center Yancy Gates scored 15 points, including a pair of baskets late that helped the Bearcats hold off the young Longhorns, who erased a 19-point deficit. Cincinnati is the worst free-throw shooting team in the Big East (63.7), which is something that could come back to haunt it in close games.

Pick: Cincinnati +2

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:21 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 18

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NCAA previews & picks: Sunday's Midwest Region action
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No. 1 North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. No. 3 Georgetown Hoyas (-4, 132)

THE STORY: Two teams that dominated inside against undersized opponents in Friday’s opening round meet when third-seeded Georgetown faces No. 11 seed North Carolina State in the Round of 32. Coming off back-to-back opening-round upsets in the NCAA tournament, Georgetown rolled past 14th-seeded Belmont, 74-59. North Carolina State, playing its first NCAA game since 2006, outscored sixth-seeded San Diego State by 20 points in the paint and pulled away in the second half to win 79-65. The winner will advance to the Sweet 16 to face either 10th-seeded Purdue or second-seeded Kansas.

Pick: Georgetown

No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-8.5, 159)

THE STORY: Creighton must relocate its missing offense if it hopes to knock off North Carolina and reach the Sweet 16. The Bluejays, among the NCAA leaders in field goal percent and 3-point percentage, managed only 58 points in the opening round but still notched their school-record-tying 29th victory. North Carolina, the top-seeded team in the Midwest Regional, has won 30 games five times during coach Roy Williams’ nine-year stay. The Tar Heels are no offensive slouches, averaging nearly 82 points.

Pick: North Carolina

No. 13 Ohio Bobcats vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls (-2.5, 114)

THE STORY: South Florida had to sweat out receiving a bid to the NCAA tournament. A week later, the Bulls will be wearing the home white jerseys needing one victory to reach the Sweet 16. South Florida, the No. 12 seed, will play 13th-seeded Ohio in the Midwest quarterfinals after knocking out Temple and Michigan, respectively. Both teams play outstanding defense and have stellar point guards. South Florida allows 56.4 points, while Ohio forces 17.6 turnovers and makes 9.3 steals per contest. Freshman Anthony Collins runs the show for USF and junior D.J. Cooper leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists.

Pick: South Florida

No. 10 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (-7.5, 141.5)

THE STORY: After surviving a tumultuous day for top seeds Friday, the No. 2 seed Jayhawks will try to avoid the upset bug when they face No. 10 seed Purdue in the round of 32. The Boilermakers held off a late rally from St. Mary's to win 72-69 in the round of 64. Kansas avoided becoming the third No. 2 seed to lose Friday, pulling away late in the first half and early in the second to beat Detroit 65-50. Kansas has a dominant post duo in Thomas Robinson and 7-foot center Jeff Withey, and they should cause matchup problems for the undersized Boilermakers.

Pick: Kansas

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:23 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 18

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NCAA previews & picks: Sunday's West Region action
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No. 8 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 1 Michigan State Spartans (-6.5, 123)

THE STORY: Top-seeded Michigan State led by just four early in the second half before pulling away for an 89-67 victory over No. 16 LIU-Brooklyn Friday night. The Spartans were led by Draymond Green, who collected 24 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists for his second career tournament triple-double. Ninth-seeded Saint Louis, meanwhile, used a late 14-2 run to surge past No. 8 Memphis, 61-54. Kwamain Mitchell scored eight of his team-high 22 points during the decisive spurt for the Billikens, who had not won an NCAA tournament game in 14 years.

ABOUT SAINT LOUIS (26-7): The Billikens cracked the national rankings early in the season, and they also closed well, winning 12 of their final 15 games. Saint Louis' defense has been one of the best in the country all year, allowing just 57.5 points and forcing just under 15 turnovers per contest. Memphis was held to 2-of-15 3-point shooting Friday, finishing 21 points below its season average. Mitchell and senior F Brian Conklin (13.9 ppg, 53.3 percent FG) and lead a deliberate offense that prevailed Friday despite an uncharacteristic 17 turnovers.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (28-7): The Spartans have been extremely tough defensively, ranking among the national leaders in opponent field-goal percentage (37.7) and 12th in scoring defense (59.0) during the regular season. Green, though, has been the driving force, earning Big Ten Player of the Year honors after ranking near the top of the conference in scoring (16.1), rebounding (10.4), assists (3.6) and steals (1.5). Sophomore PG Keith Appling (11.5 ppg, 3.9 apg) is the only other Michigan State player scoring in double figures. The Spartans finished among the nation's top teams in rebounding margin (plus-8.0) and finished Friday's game with a 43-20 edge on the glass against LIU-Brooklyn.

Pick: Saint Louis

No. 15 Norfolk State Spartans vs. No. 7 Florida Gators (-14, 143)

THE STORY: Just two days after becoming the fifth No. 15 seed ever to upset a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament’s Round of 64, Norfolk State will try to make it two in a row against seventh-seeded Florida. The Spartans’ 86-84 stunner against Missouri was the first No. 15 over No. 2 upset since 2001. What made it even more surprising was it was the first time Norfolk State — champions of the MEAC — had ever appeared in the Big Dance. The Gators, meanwhile, cruised to an easy 71-45 victory over 10th-seeded Virginia despite a 4-for-23 shooting effort from 3-point range.

ABOUT FLORIDA (24-10, 10-6 SEC): The Gators entered the tournament leading the nation with 9.9 made 3-pointers per game, but they didn’t look the part in their opening win against Virginia. The scariest part for future opponents, though, is that it didn’t matter. Florida overwhelmed the Cavaliers athletically, getting out on a number of fast breaks and shooting 24 of 30 on shots inside the arc. Casey Prather was the main benefactor of the Gators’ run-and-gun game plan, scoring a career-high 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting in 22 minutes off the bench.

ABOUT NORFOLK STATE (26-9, 13-3 MEAC): Before this tournament began, only four No. 15 seeds had ever reached the Round of 32. In the past, the magic has always run out for these Cinderellas, who never once went on to the Sweet 16. Can the Spartans be any different? If they stay red-hot from beyond the arc, and if Kyle O’Quinn keeps patrolling the paint, anything can happen. A 31-percent 3-point shooting team this season, Norfolk State shot a blazing 10 for 19 from deep in the upset of Missouri, with Chris McEachin and Pendarvis Williams draining four 3’s apiece. O’Quinn — a 6-foot-10 senior from Jamaica — netted 26 points and 14 rebounds for his 20th double-double of the season.

Pick: Norfolk State

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:25 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 18

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NCAA previews & picks: Sunday's South Region action
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No. 15 Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. No. 10 Xavier Musketeers (-2.5, 139.5)

THE STORY: No. 10 seed Xavier rallied from a 10-point deficit over the final 12:20 Friday night, riding a 25-point effort from senior guard Tu Holloway to a 67-63 victory over seventh-seeded Notre Dame. Holloway scored 17 of his points in the second half, including the go-ahead basket with 21.3 seconds left. Lehigh became just the sixth No. 15 seed to ever take down a No. 2, shocking Duke, 75-70. C.J. McCollum led the way for the Mountain Hawks, pouring in a game-high 30 points. The Musketeers have faced Lehigh just once before, pulling out a tight 69-63 home win during the 2004-05 season.

ABOUT LEHIGH (27-7): The Mountain Hawks have won 13 of their last 14 games thanks largely to a dynamic offense that averaged 76.2 points during the regular season. McCollum was among the nation's leaders in scoring (21.9) and steals (2.6), and he put up big numbers against the Blue Devils despite a subpar shooting effort (9 for 24). The junior guard has had plenty of help this year from junior forwards Gabe Knutson (12.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Holden Greiner (10.0 ppg). Knutson contributed 17 points and eight rebounds against Duke. Lehigh sported a turnover margin of plus-3.1 coming into the tournament, forcing 14.5 takeaways per game and averaging 7.8 steals.

ABOUT XAVIER (22-12): Ranked as highly as eighth in the nation during the first month of the season, the Musketeers went into a tailspin after a brawl marred the end of their blowout win over Cincinnati on Dec. 10, losing five of their next six games before regrouping over the season's final weeks. Xavier, which attempted more free throws than any team in the Atlantic 10 during the regular season, is led by the explosive backcourt of Holloway (17.0 ppg, 5.1 apg, 1.5 spg) and junior Mark Lyons (15.5 ppg). Freshman Dezmine Wells had 14 points and 11 rebounds against Notre Dame.

Pick: Lehigh

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:26 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, March 18

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NCAA Tournament betting recap: Favorites rule
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If the first day of round of 32 action is any indication, the end could be near for Lehigh, Norfolk State, and Ohio. Favorites ruled the day on Saturday, albeit not exactly by wide margins. They went 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS.

However, that is not to say the day was without drama. Kansas State kept it close for a half before Syracuse raced away to cover its spread with ease. Even Kentucky covered 12 points against Iowa State despite enduring a major scare early in the second half.

The only two 'dogs to cash out as winners on Saturday were Gonzaga and VCU. Both had visions of winning outright late in the game, but Ohio State held off the Zags and won by seven (spread was eight). VCU could not maintain a second-half lead and lost to Indiana by two (spread was 5.5).

As for the easiest cover of the day, Baylor shot the lights out and took care of Colorado 80-63 (spread was 7.5). Even that one, though, was just a two-point game at halftime.

Louisville capped off the day in appropriate fashion. Underdogs had hung tough all day long only to lose their way in the final moments, and that's exactly what happened to New Mexico. The Lobos were right there the entire way, but the Cardinals had too much in the end and covered the two-point spread by one.

Unders go 5-3

Speaking of close calls on the betting front, Syracuse and Kansas State almost hit the total right on the number. The under ended up cashing in as 134 points were scored (134.5 was the mark). The day's second game saw Gonzaga and Ohio State just barely go over the total (139 to 135.5).

The unders seemed to be owning the day early, but that was before Kentucky and Baylor took their respective courts. Brady Heslip drained nine threes for the Bears as they put up an 80-spot on Colorado. Kentucky hung 87 on Iowa State.

Not surprisingly, the offense did not carry over to the Rose Garden--where VCU and Indiana played well under the total. Louisville wrapped up the day with a strong defensive showing against New Mexico. A relatively low total of 127.5 was not low enough, as Rick Pitino's boys locked down the Lobos in a 59-56 victory.

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**Udog** · 03-18-2012, 08:28 AM

NASCAR betting: Food City 500 preview and picks

Three races, three different winners. That’s what we have to work with.

It’s tough to predict a clear favorite this early into the schedule - even a clear front runner among the manufacturers. A Ford, a Toyota and a Chevy have all gone to Victory Lane.

It doesn’t get any easier with this week’s stop at the fastest half-mile in the world, Bristol Motor Speedway, for Sunday’s Food City 500.

Things can happen in hurry at Bristol, making this week a bit of a wild-card race. However, while there hasn’t been a clear favorite among the winners so far, there has been a driver who has been a constant threat.

Jimmie Johnson has finished fourth and second in the last two races. After a disastrous start at Daytona (he was caught up in a wreck not of his own doing), Johnson has been rolling and is the favorite to win Sunday.

Johnson won his first Bristol race in March 2010 and tallied two Top 5s in last year’s Bristol events. He’s slowly climbing back up the ranks after a 25-point penalty for infractions in the pre-race inspection at Daytona. The team’s appeal of that penalty fell on deaf ears this week. Following his second-place finish last Sunday, Johnson and the Hendrick Motorsports team have momentum and extra incentive to win Sunday.

“Yeah, points are definitely important. To be honest with you, I’m not thinking about it. We have the fortune of a lot of racing left before the Chase cutoff,” Johnson said. “And Bristol: I’m so proud of the one win I have there. It’s been such a tough track on me over the years that I really want another trophy there. We’ve been very close and I think we’ll be a threat.”

Don’t count out Carl Edwards. Edwards finished second here last season and has a Top 10 and a Top 5 in the first three races. He was racing inside the Top 10 at Las Vegas last week until running out of gas on the last lap. Edwards is looking for redemption and could find that this week.

"Racing at Bristol is like fighter jets in a gymnasium," Edwards said. "The banking is so high, you drive down in the corner and the forces pushing the car into the track seem so much greater than anywhere else we go. The rate at which the car is changing direction is very fast. It always takes me a few laps in the race, 10-15 laps in, to get comfortable with the pace of it because things are happening so quickly there. It is really fun to race there."

Why not Kyle Busch? He's dominated here in the past few seasons, winning four of the last six races at Bristol and has the highest driver rating among the Top 12. But, Busch and his Toyota seem to be struggling to find their way this season. He could win Sunday, but his chances are slim.

His older brother, Kurt, is a different story. Racing for a small underfunded team, Kurt has had some highlights, despite a lack of speed at the bigger tracks. Speed won’t be the main factor Sunday - it’s all about survival at Bristol. Kurt is adept at doing just that and has five career wins at Bristol. He could surprise everyone with a sixth career win Sunday.

Head-to-head

Jeff Gordon vs. Brad Keselowski: Gordon has five victories at Bristol, tied with the Busch brothers for the most wins. Keselowski was the last winner at Bristol. Both drivers have been struggling and will probably continue to do so Sunday, but give the nod in the matchup to Keselowski.

Kevin Harvick vs. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Both of these Chevy drivers have shown some strength this season, but not enough to run among the favorites. Both have wins at Bristol and their average finishes and driver ratings are nearly identical, but look for Earnhardt Jr. to continue showing the same small signs of resurgence he showed last week and finish ahead of Harvick.

Bottom Line

The race winner has started from the pole 22 times - the most productive starting position. The last driver to win from the pole was Carl Edwards, in the 2008 night race. Eighty-one of 102 races have been won from a Top-10 starting position, including 52 from the first four spots. The deepest in the field that a race winner has started is 38th, by Elliott Sadler in 2001.

Picks:

Jimmie Johnson (+800)
Carl Edwards (+700)
Kurt Busch (+600)

Announcement

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 3/18 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 3/18 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

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