Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 3/17 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, March 17

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Trend Report
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3:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
LA Clippers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
LA Clippers are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games at home

7:00 PM
TORONTO vs. CHARLOTTE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

7:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. INDIANA
New York is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indiana's last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing New York

8:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NEW JERSEY
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New Jersey is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
New Jersey is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against New Orleans

8:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 16 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

9:00 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games
Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Utah's last 9 games when playing Golden State

9:00 PM
BOSTON vs. DENVER
Boston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Boston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

9:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 11 games when playing Dallas
San Antonio is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Dallas is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games


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[Udog]

NBA

Saturday, March 17

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Pick 'n' roll: Saturday's best NBA bets
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New Orleans Hornets at New Jersey Nets (NA)

Two of the NBA’s worst teams meet when the Nets host the Hornets. The squads have just 25 combined wins and both are well out of the playoff chase.

New Jersey has lost three of four games as it opens a three-game homestand; the Nets are just 5-15 at home. New Orleans has lost seven of its last eight and is 6-15 on the road.

Nets star Deron Williams has missed four straight games with a calf injury and New Jersey was woefully shorthanded during Friday’s loss to the Orlando Magic. The Nets had just 10 players in uniform as guard Jordan Farmer (groin) and new acquisition Gerald Wallace were among the missing. The five players who started combined for only 27 points with DeShawn Stevenson the only starter to reach double figures with 11 points.

“A tough one for us,” New Jersey coach Avery Johnson said. “Seven points (for the starters) at the half, I don’t think I’ve seen that in a long time, if ever.”

Even if Williams plays, he likely won't be 100 percent.

The Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Pick: Hornets


Boston Celtics at Denver Nuggets (-6, 196.5)

JaVale McGee is expected to make his Nuggets’ debut Saturday. McGee, 24, a 7-foot center who was acquired from Washington for Nene at the trade deadline, will add speed to a deep Denver lineup which already loves to run. McGee is averaging 11.9 points and 8.8 rebounds, and figures to improve in a winning environment.

The Celtics are 2-2 on their season-long eight-game road trip following their 120-95 loss at Sacramento on Friday.

Boston allowed 41 points in the third quarter and was outrebounded 45-28. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen played 35 and 33 minutes, respectively, so stamina could be an issue in the thin air of Denver.

The teams have split the last four meetings, with the home team winning – and covering – each time.

Pick: Nuggets


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[Udog]

NBA
Dunkel

Boston at Denver
The Celtics look to take advantage of a Denver team that is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by only 4. Dunkel Here are all of today's picks

SATURDAY, MARCH 17

Game 501-502: Houston at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 114.584; LA Clippers 124.662
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8; 195
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-8); Over

Game 503-504: Toronto at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 115.328; Charlotte 109.707
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 5 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2); Under

Game 505-506: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 118.213; Indiana 125.521
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 7 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-4); Under

Game 507-508: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 118.002; Chicago 125.785
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 8; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: New Orleans at New Jersey (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.232; New Jersey 113.332
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 191
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 3; 186
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

Game 511-512: San Antonio at Dallas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 119.745; Dallas 124.529
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3); Under

Game 513-514: Boston at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.557; Denver 120.597
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 4; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6); Over

Game 515-516: Golden State at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 116.298; Utah 121.139
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 5; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8; 202
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+8); Under

[Udog]

NHL
Dunkel

Pittsburgh at New Jersey
The Devils look to build on their 11-5 record in the last 16 meetings between the two teams. New Jersey is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Devils favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MARCH 17

Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at New Jersey (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.752; New Jersey 13.081
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+115); Under

Game 53-54: Philadelphia at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.345; Boston 10.641
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over

Game 55-56: Carolina at Minnesota (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.223; Minnesota 9.931
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-120); Over

Game 57-58: NY Islanders at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.829; Montreal 10.573
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+100); Over

Game 59-60: Toronto at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.863; Ottawa 11.905
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-155); Over

Game 61-62: Colorado at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.488; NY Rangers 11.011
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-180); 5
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+160); Under

Game 63-64: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.767; Tampa Bay 10.227
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over

Game 65-66: Buffalo at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 12.693; Florida 11.546
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+110); Under

Game 67-68: Columbus at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.051; Vancouver 10.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-285); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+245); Under

Game 69-70: Detroit at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.513; San Jose 10.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+120); Over

Game 71-72: Nashville at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.432; Los Angeles 12.324
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-120); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-120); Under

[Udog]

NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, March 17

HOUSTON at LA CLIPPERS, 3:35 PM ET
HOUSTON: N/A
LA CLIPPERS: N/A

TORONTO at CHARLOTTE, 7:05 PM ET
TORONTO: 21-40 ATS after allowing 110 points or more
CHARLOTTE: 70-46 ATS in March games

NEW YORK at INDIANA, 7:05 PM ET
NEW YORK: 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
INDIANA: 17-32 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days

PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO, 8:05 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent
CHICAGO: 21-10 UNDER in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders

NEW ORLEANS at NEW JERSEY, 8:05 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-17 ATS against Atlantic division opponents
NEW JERSEY: 5-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or less

SAN ANTONIO at DALLAS, 9:05 PM ET
SAN ANTONIO: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less
DALLAS: 4-14 ATS in home games in March games

BOSTON at DENVER, 9:05 PM ET
BOSTON: 35-17 ATS in road games when playing their 5th game in 7 days
DENVER: 2-10 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days

GOLDEN STATE at UTAH, 9:05 PM ET
GOLDEN STATE: 49-26 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games
UTAH: 21-37 ATS after playing a game as favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 17

Early Games

Hot teams
-- New Jersey won its last four home games, allowing three goals. Penguins won their last ten games, allowing 15 goals.
-- Flyers won seven of their last eight games.

Cold teams
-- Bruins lost their last four games, allowing 21 goals.
-- Minnesota lost seven of its last eight games. Carolina lost six of its last nine road games.

Totals
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Penguins' last seven road games.
-- Six of last seven Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Carolina road games went over.
--

Series records
-- Devils won their last three games against Pittsburgh.
-- Flyers lost eight of last nine games against Boston.
-- Carolina beat Minneaota twice LY, 4-3/2-1so.
--

Back-to-Back
--

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 17

Update

#2 seeds are 7-11 vs spread in this round when facing a #7, with six SU losses. Young Gonzaga won nine of its last eleven games, with two losses by total of five points; their tough pre-conference schedule helps them play well here. Over last three years, second round favorites of more than 5 points are 14-9-1 vs spread. Gonzaga shot 56% from floor, made 9-17 from arc in 77-54 rout of West Virginia; they were up 18 at half- they're 2-5 in this round since '03, losing by 1-19-2-22-22 points. Ohio State is 7-4 in its last 11 games; they outrebounded Loyola 45-23 in easy 78-59 first round win. Gonzaga's first two losses this year were pair of 7-point losses to Big Dozen teams (Illinois/Michigan State).


Other tournaments
Oakland won six of last eight games; they lost by hoop to Ohio, won by 17 over Bowling Green in games vs MAC opponent. Buffalo won four of its last five games, losing only to Ohio U by 3; they hold opponents to 43% inside arc, 15th in country.

Toledo won eight of its last ten games, winning last six games at home. Robert Morris forces turnovers on 24% of possessions; they beat Ohio in only game vs MAC opponent- they won nine of last 11 games.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 17

Update

Murray State is 3-0 as a dog this season; this is first time they're getting points since winning 76-72 at Memphis (+10) Dec 11. Racers will have home crowd behind them, but Marquette is big step up from Colorado State. Golden Eagles are just as athletic as Murray and they defend well, forcing turnovers on 23.7% of possessions (#22 in country.Marquette got to Sweet 16 LY for first time under Williams; no OVC team has been to Sweet 16 in last decade- they've lost second round games by 2-17 in last two tournaments. Murray advanced Thursday despite shooting just 13-26 at foul line, 5-17 from arc. OVC underdogs of 5+ points are 19-22 against the spread this season.

Iowa State makes 38% behind arc, which you have to have against the Kentucky shot blockers; Cyclones are 7-2-1 v spread in last ten games as an underdog, playing in Big X. Interesting to see ISU's White inside against Wildcat defense that blocks 21.2% of opponents' shots. Iowa St. was +17 on boards in first round win over UConn, game they led 34-14; Cyclones have several transfers who've been around- that gives them a toughness lot of teams don't have- they split with both Kansas/Baylor, so they're not going to be awed here. Kentucky won its last two second round games, by 30-8 points. #1 seeds laying double digits in a second round game covered six of their last ten tries.

[Udog]

Guys,

I've got to work for a while. The sources a really dragging their heels on the remaining stuff. I'll get it in as soon as possible. good luck today, guys!

[Udog]

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 17

Hot Teams
-- Rockets won three of last four games, but are 1-5-1 vs spread in last seven road games.
-- Raptors covered six of their last eight road games.
-- Bulls won seven of their last nine home games (4-4-1 as HF).
-- Dallas won last four home games, but covered one of last six. Spurs won/covered four of their last five games.
-- Celtics covered seven of their last nine games.
-- Utah won/covered its last four home games. Warriors won and covered their last four road games.

Cold Teams
-- Clippers lost four of their last five home games.
-- Charlotte lost ten of its last eleven home games.
-- Indiana lost five of its last seven games. Knicks lost their last six road games, but are 2-0 under Woodson.
-- 76ers are 2-6-1 vs spread in last nine road games.
-- New Jersey lost nine of its last eleven home games. Hornets lost four of their last five games.
-- Denver is 3-12 vs spread in its last 15 home games.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Rockets: Last two nites off. Clippers: 5th game/7 years.
-- Raptors: 6th game/8 nites. Bobcats: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Knicks: 5th game/7 nites. Pacers: 6th game/8 nites.
-- 76ers: 3rd game/4 nites. Bulls: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Hornets: 3rd game/4 nites. Nets: 6th game/9 nites.
-- Spurs: 3rd game/4 nites. Mavericks: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Celtics: 5th game/7 nites. Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Warriors: 6th game/8 nites. Jazz: 3rd game/4 nites.

Totals
-- Last eight Houston games went over the total; last four Clipper games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Charlotte home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five New York road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last five New Jersey home games went over.
-- Last five San Antonio games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Boston road games. .
-- Five of last seven Golden State games went over total.

Back-to-Back
-- Raptors are 4-1 vs spread when playing second straight nite on road.
-- Knicks are 6-8 vs spread if they played nite before. Pacers are 4-1 at home if they played the nite before.
-- 76ers are 3-2 vs spread if they lost the nite before. Bulls are 2-3-1 vs spread at home if they played nite before.
-- Nets are 2-6-1 vs spread at home if they played nite before.
-- Spurs are 4-5-1 vs spread if they played nite before, 2-1 at home.
-- Celtics are 1-6 vs spread on road if they played nite before.
-- Warriors are 8-2 vs spread if they played the nite before.

[Udog]

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 17

Hot teams
-- New Jersey won its last four home games, allowing three goals. Penguins won their last ten games, allowing 15 goals.
-- Flyers won seven of their last eight games.
-- Colorado won five of its last seven games. Rangers won six of their last seven home games.
-- Panthers won last four games, allowing six goals. Sabres won six of their last nine games.
-- Kings won their last three games, allowing six goals.

Cold teams
-- Bruins lost their last four games, allowing 21 goals.
-- Minnesota lost seven of its last eight games. Carolina lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Islanders were outscored 19-9 in losing last five games. Montreal lost five of its last seven home games.
-- Ottawa is 5-8 in its last 13 games. Maple Leafs lost five of their last six games.
-- Blues lost last two games 4-3so/2-0, after winning six of previous seven on the road. Lightning lost four of their last five games.
-- Canucks lost four of their last five games. Columbus lost its last three games, outscored 9-2.
-- Sharks lost six of their last eight games. Red Wings lost seven of their last eight road games.
-- Predators won six of their last nine games.

Totals
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Penguins' last seven road games.
-- Six of last seven Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Carolina road games went over.
-- Four of last five Montreal home games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Toronto road games stayed under.
-- Last four Ranger games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Tampa Bay home games went over.
-- Three of last four Florida home games went over total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Columbus games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Detroit games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Los Angeles home games.

Series records
-- Devils won their last three games against Pittsburgh.
-- Flyers lost eight of last nine games against Boston.
-- Carolina beat Minnesota twice LY, 4-3/2-1so.
-- Islanders lost four of their last five visits to Montreal.
-- Senators won three of their last four games with Toronto.
-- Rangers lost four of last six games with Colorado.
-- Blues lost four of last six games with Tampa Bay.
-- Sabres won four of last five games against Florida.
-- Canucks won seven of last eight games against Columbus.
-- Sharks won three of last four games with Detroit.
-- Kings won six of last eight games with Nashville.

Back-to-Back
-- Canadiens are 4-5 if they played nite before, 2-1 at home.
-- Senators are 3-2 if they won the nite before.
-- Kings are 4-9 if they played the nite before.

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 17

Final Update

Wisconsin has been favored in seven of last eight second round games, but is 4-4; #4 seeds are 6-17 vs spread in last 23 second round games vs #5 seeds, with 5's 10-4 in last 14 games when pointspread was 3 or less points. Vandy got monkey off back from previous first round upsets by beating pretty good Harvard team Thursday, shooting 54% from floor. Badgers play 2nd-slowest pace in country, but veteran Vandy team (five seniors in rotation) can play at any pace. Wisconsin made 10-19 from arc in easy win over Montana, but Commodores hold foes to 30.2% on the arc. SEC teams are 4-0 in second round games the last two years.

Baylor-Colorado were Big 12 rivals until Buffs bolted to Pac-12 before this season; home team won seven of last eight meetings, with Colorado winning both Big 12 tourney tilts, but most of that was before Baylor became a top 25 team- they beat Buffs 70-66 in last meeting LY. Buffs aren't nearly as talented as Baylor, but they're well-coached and on roll, winning four games in Pac-12 tourney last week, then beating UNLV in first round when they got up 20, then held on for dear life, winning by 4. #3 seeds are 6-3 vs spread in last nine second round games vs #11 seeds. Colorado turned ball over 23 times against UNLV's pressure Thursday; Baylor forces turnovers on 21.4% of possessions.

Louisville is on roll after winning Big East tourney last week; last two teams that won Big East tourney got to Final Four. Cardinals allowed an average of 52 ppg in last three games- they held Davidson to 35% in win Thursday. That said, New Mexico has won six games in row and 13 of last 15- they have NBA player in Gordon, plus poised freshman PG in Greenwood to handle Louisville pressure. Lobos make 38% from arc. #4 seeds are just 6-17 vs spread in last 23 second round games against #5 seeds. Mountain West teams are 11-8 vs spread on road when spread in less than 5 points. Big East teams are 15-17. Lobo have never gotten to Sweet 16, so this coudl be biggest win in program history.

VCU will pressure Indiana team whose point guard is out with injured knee; Rams won five of last six NCAA tourney games, and were dog in all six- they're 4-1-1 vs spread as an underdog this season, they're 18-1 SU in last 19 games, losing at George Mason by point on buzzer beater. CAA road underdogs of 7 or less points are 6-17 vs spread this season. Indiana shot 59% in easy win over New Mexico State, but Aggies shot 55%; if Rams can score, that allows them more chances to press, which is their best chance to score. Big Dozen away favorites of 7 points or less are 12-5 against the spread this season.

[Udog]

The NBA and NHL long sheets have not updated at all for Saturday. NHL short sheet is still hung on yesterday, too.

I'll keep an eye out for updates but I think they're finished for the day.