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Saturday's Trends and Indexes - 3/10 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

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  • #16
    NBA

    Saturday, March 10


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Pick 'n' roll: Saturday's best NBA bets
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    Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-9, 196)

    Miami heads into Saturday’s date with the Pacers just 1.5 games back of the Eastern Conference-leading Chicago Bulls and while there are lots of games left in the regular season, they’re already keeping a close eye on the standings.

    Miami has won 11 of its last 13 after downing Atlanta 89-86 on Wednesday. LeBron James posted 31 points and 11 rebounds, but couldn’t do enough to help the Heat cash as 12.5-point favorites.

    "At this point of the year, you start looking at tiebreakers," forward Shane Battier told reporters. "That's a big issue when it comes to the playoffs, and so, obviously, you want to win the season series against the teams you may play in the playoffs.”

    The Heat have covered just once over the last four games and are now 20-19 against the spread this season. They’ll probably continue to see fat lines down the stretch, but you have to wonder about their value as the season wears on.

    That said, after a couple of days off, Miami should be able to beat up on the Pacers.

    Pick: Heat


    Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns (2, 193)


    Phoenix is another team that knows how important wins are right now.

    With a big win over Dallas, a team the Suns hadn’t beaten in nine tries, they at least stayed within view of the eighth and final playoff spot in the West.

    "We couldn't lose both of these (Oklahoma City and Dallas) and stay in the playoff picture," Steve Nash told reporters. "It's an early crunch time for us. We've got to keep crawling back to that eight-nine-ten spots and try to give ourselves a chance to sneak in there."

    The next week or so will probably play a huge role in whether Nash stays with the team too. He has been mentioned in trade rumors for much of the season, but if Phoenix thinks it has a shot at the playoffs, the club will need the veteran point guard.

    We like Phoenix to ride the momentum of its big win over Dallas into this one.

    Pick: Suns


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    Comment


    • #17
      NCAAB

      Saturday, March 10


      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Big Ten tournament: Semifinals preview and picks
      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan State Spartans (-4)

      THE STORY
      : Top-seeded Michigan State will try to win its third straight game against No. 4 seed Wisconsin, which advanced to the Big Ten tournament semifinals behind a huge effort from an unlikely source. Rob Wilson, a little-used senior guard who averages 3.1 points, scored a career-high 30 and made seven 3-pointers in the Badgers’ 79-71 quarterfinal victory over Indiana. Wisconsin has won the last three meetings in the conference tournament, including a 65-63 victory in the 2008 semifinals. The Spartans, however, won the first two meetings this season by a combined 17 points and are coming off a 92-75 dismantling of eighth-seeded Iowa.

      TV: 1:40 p.m. ET, CBS

      ABOUT WISCONSIN (24-8): Before his breakout performance, Wilson’s previous career high was 13 points in a victory over Michigan in 2010. But against the Hoosiers, he looked unstoppable, hitting 11 of 16 shots and misfiring on only three 3-point attempts. The Badgers have struggled offensively all season, averaging only 63 points and scoring fewer than 60 nine times. But Wilson could be the perimeter shooter they’ve been lacking. In the most recent meeting in mid-February, Wisconsin shot only 34 percent in a 69-55 loss at East Lansing.

      ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (25-7): Playing without injured forward Branden Dawson, the Spartans responded in a big way against the Hawkeyes - turning in one of their best offensive performances of the season. Michigan State shot 70 percent in the first half and took a 55-39 halftime lead, an advantage they stretched to 28 midway through the second half. One concern, however, could be the Spartans’ leaky defense. They’ve allowed 70 or more in three straight games for the first time all year, and the Hawkeyes made 10 of 20 3-point attempts. Michigan State hasn’t won the Big Ten tournament since 2000, the same year it won the national championship.

      TRENDS:

      * Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
      * Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
      * Under is 23-11-1 in Spartans' last 35 games following a win.
      * Over is 7-1 in Badgers' last eight overall.

      TIP-INS:

      1. The Badgers last won the Big Ten crown in 2008. Their victory in the quarterfinals snapped a three-game losing streak in the conference tournament.

      2. Michigan State is 16-12 all-time in the Big Ten tournament, including a 5-2 record as the top seed.

      3. Bo Ryan became Wisconsin’s all-time wins leader at 266 with the victory over Indiana.

      Pick: Wisconsin +4


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      Comment


      • #18
        NHL
        Armadillo's Write-Up

        Saturday, March 10


        Early Games

        Hot teams
        -- Colorado won five of its last seven home games.

        Cold teams
        -- Bruins are 1-11 in game following their last 12 wins. Washington lost eight of its last eleven road games.
        -- Oilers lost four of their last five games.

        Totals
        -- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Washington games.
        -- Six of last seven Edmonton road games went over the total.
        --

        Series records
        -- Bruins won five of last seven games against Washington.
        -- Road team is 6-4 in last ten Edmonton-Colorado games.
        --

        Back-to-Back
        -- Detroit is 8-3 if it played night before, 4-3 on the road.

        Comment


        • #19
          NCAAB
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Saturday, March 10


          C-USA tournament (Memphis)
          Marshall is playing fourth day in row, including a triple OT game in its game Thursday; now they get true road game at Memphis. Tigers beat Thundering Herd twice this year, 83-76 (+8.5) on this floor Jan 28, then 87-67 (+2) at home Feb 25. Memphis won last five times they were in C-USA final, winning by 11-12-26-25-1 point. Marshall's bench played total of only 39 minutes yesterday; this is first time in a decade they've won more than one game in a conference tournament.

          ACC tournament (Atlanta)
          Tar Heels' Henson hurt his left hand, played only seven minutes in Tar Heels' 85-69 win yesterday; doubtful they would play him here, even if he is able to go. North Carolina treats NC State like a pinata; they beat Wolfpack twice this year, 74-55 (-13) at home Jan 26, then 86-74 (-6) in Raleigh Feb 21. Wolfpack probably got themselves in NCAAs Friday when they beat Virginia- they only played seven guys, with all starters playing 29+ minutes. UNC won three of last four in this round.

          Atlantic 14 tournament (Atlantic City)
          UMass upset top-seeded Temple yesterday, forcing 22 turnovers while making 9-16 from arc; Minutemen (-3) beat St Bonaventure 86-67 back on Feb 8, with Morgan making 6-7 behind arc in game UMass trailed by 3 at the half. Bonnies won six of last seven games; they used three guys 33+ minutes Friday, with Nicholson scoring 25 points with 10 boards- he is best player on floor. UMass is just 3-4 in last seven games; they're 3-6 against the spread as an underdog this season.

          SEC tournament (New Orleans)
          Kentucky beat Florida twice this season, 78-58 (-9.5) in Lexington Feb 7, then 74-59 (-5) in Gainesville six days ago; Wildcats are 5-1 in last six SEC semifinals, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Florida is 5-0 last five times they got this far, but this is only second time they've got this far since Noah/Horford graduated. Kentucky's bench played 24 minutes Friday in game where they outscored LSU 23-8 from foul line. Florida failed to cover last three times they were an underdog.

          Big Dozen tournament (Indianapolis)
          Over last nine years, Michigan State is 0-6 in this round, and they're not usually 0-6 at anything, so it makes you wonder; State beat Wisconsin twice this season, 63-60 (+6) in OT Jan 3, then 69-55 (-6) at home Feb 16. Only two Spartans played more than 25 minutes Friday in their easy win over Iowa- they played 10 subs. This is first time in four years Badgers are in Big Dozen semis, but Ryan is 4-0 when he gets here, with three of four wins by 3 or less points.

          Comment


          • #20
            NCAAB
            Short Sheet

            Saturday's Top College Basketball Trends


            N CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS in road games when playing with one or less days rest (vs NC State)

            WISCONSIN is 16-3 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog (vs Michigan St)

            KENTUCKY is 4-13 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread (vs Florida)

            Comment


            • #21
              NHL
              Short Sheet

              Saturday, March 10


              WASHINGTON at BOSTON, 1:05 PM ET
              WASHINGTON: 20-5 ATS off a close home win by 1 goal
              BOSTON: 8-12 ATS in home games off a home win by 2 goals or more

              EDMONTON at COLORADO, 3:05 PM ET
              EDMONTON: 17-44 ATS revenging a same season loss vs opponent
              COLORADO: 22-16 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 5 days

              NEW JERSEY at NY ISLANDERS, 7:05 PM ET
              NEW JERSEY: 7-2 ATS off a home win by 2 goals or more
              NY ISLANDERS: 4-14 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite

              PHILADELPHIA at TORONTO, 7:05 PM ET
              PHILADELPHIA: 11-16 ATS off an home win scoring 4 or more goals
              TORONTO: 31-20 ATS revenging a close loss vs opponent of 1 goal or less

              CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY, 7:05 PM ET
              CAROLINA: 0-7 ATS in road games on Saturday games
              TAMPA BAY: 15-10 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games

              BUFFALO at OTTAWA, 7:05 PM ET
              BUFFALO: 13-25 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 5 days
              OTTAWA: 12-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive overs

              COLUMBUS at ST LOUIS, 8:05 PM ET
              COLUMBUS: 1-10 ATS off a home win
              ST LOUIS: 13-1 ATS in home games off a home win

              DETROIT at NASHVILLE, 8:05 PM ET
              DETROIT: 1-6 ATS in road games after a close win by 1 goal in their previous game
              NASHVILLE: 13-6 ATS vs. division opponents

              SAN JOSE at PHOENIX, 8:05 PM ET
              SAN JOSE: 0-4 ATS in March games
              PHOENIX: 10-3 ATS in home games after 5 or more consecutive losses

              ANAHEIM at DALLAS, 8:05 PM ET
              ANAHEIM: 1-9 ATS off a road loss by 2 goals or more
              DALLAS: 7-1 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games

              MONTREAL at VANCOUVER, 10:05 PM ET
              MONTREAL: 13-27 ATS revenging a loss versus opponent
              VANCOUVER: 17-4 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games

              ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

              Comment


              • #22
                NBA
                Short Sheet

                Saturday, March 10


                PORTLAND at WASHINGTON, 7:05 PM ET
                PORTLAND: 14-6 ATS off ATS loss
                WASHINGTON: 4-21 ATS off home win

                TORONTO at DETROIT, 7:35 PM ET
                TORONTO: 12-3 ATS L15 games
                DETROIT: 13-4 ATS L17 games

                INDIANA at MIAMI, 7:35 PM ET
                INDIANA: 12-4 Under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points
                MIAMI: 0-8 ATS at home w/ 2 days rest

                NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA, 8:05 PM ET
                NEW ORLEANS: 30-18 ATS as road underdog
                MINNESOTA: 21-35 ATS off an Over

                HOUSTON at NEW JERSEY, 8:05 PM ET
                HOUSTON: 21-7 ATS Away off SU loss as road favorite
                NEW JERSEY: 0-8 ATS at home off ATS win

                UTAH at CHICAGO, 8:05 PM ET
                UTAH: 8-18 ATS off BB road games
                CHICAGO: 27-15 ATS vs. non-conference

                CHARLOTTE at OKLAHOMA CITY, 8:05 PM ET
                CHARLOTTE: 0-7 ATS Away if home dog last game
                OKLAHOMA CITY: 20-8 ATS off home loss

                MEMPHIS at PHOENIX, 9:05 PM ET
                MEMPHIS: 28-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3
                PHOENIX: 14-3 Under when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points

                DALLAS at GOLDEN STATE, 10:35 PM ET
                DALLAS: 4-16 ATS playing 4th time in 5 days
                GOLDEN STATE: 1-9 ATS off double digit home loss

                ** (TC) Denotes Time Change

                Comment


                • #23
                  NCAAB
                  Dunkel


                  Update

                  Game 523-524: Florida State vs. Duke (3:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 68.105; Duke 68.058
                  Dunkel Line: Even; 142
                  Vegas Line: Duke by 2 1/2; 140
                  Dunkel Pick: Floirda State (+2 1/2); Over

                  Game 527-528: Xavier vs. St. Louis (3:30 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 61.614; St. Louis 66.288
                  Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 133
                  Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6; 129 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: Xavier (+6); Over

                  Game 531-532: Mississippi vs. Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 62.136; Vanderbilt 70.699
                  Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 8 1/2; 130
                  Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 7; 132
                  Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-7); Under

                  Game 535-536: Ohio State vs. Michigan (4:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 76.133; Michigan 66.991
                  Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 9; 129
                  Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7 1/2; 125
                  Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-7 1/2); Over

                  Game 537-538: Colorado vs. Arizona (6:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 62.774; Arizona 64.680
                  Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 125
                  Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 129
                  Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+3 1/2); Under

                  Game 539-540: Baylor vs. Missouri (6:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 70.650; Missouri 75.335
                  Dunkel Line: Missouri by 4 1/2; 142
                  Vegas Line: Missouri by 3; 148
                  Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-3); Over

                  Game 541-542: Ohio vs. Akron (8:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 60.672; Akron 60.316
                  Dunkel Line: Even; 133;
                  Vegas Line: Ohio by 1 1/2; 136 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: Akron (+1 1/2); Under

                  Game 543-544: New Mexico vs. San Diego State (7:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 71.884; San Diego State 65.878
                  Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 6; 136
                  Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4; 132
                  Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-4); Over

                  Game 545-546: Louisville vs. Cincinnati (9:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 69.442; Cincinnati 69.285
                  Dunkel Line: Even; 119
                  Vegas Line: Louisville by 2 1/2; 123 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Under

                  Game 547-548: UC-Santa Barbara vs. Long Beach State (10:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 61.578; Long Beach State 62.811
                  Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 1 1/2; 135
                  Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 3 1/2; 138
                  Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (+3 1/2); Under

                  Game 549-550: Louisiana Tech vs. New Mexico State (12:00 a.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 51.320; New Mexico State 61.420
                  Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 10; 143
                  Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 7 1/2; 148 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-7 1/2); Over

                  Game 553-554: Bethune-Cookman vs. Norfolk State (1:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 43.102; Norfolk State 49.193
                  Dunkel Line: Norfolk State by 6; 125
                  Vegas Line: Norfolk State by 4; 131
                  Dunkel Pick: Norfolk State (-4); Under

                  Game 557-558: Texas Southern vs. Mississippi Valley State (8:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Texas Southern 43.792; Mississippi Valley State 43.905
                  Dunkel Line: Even; 133
                  Vegas Line: Mississippi Valley State by 1 1/2; 128 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: Texas Southern (+1 1/2); Over

                  Comment

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