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**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 10:20 AM

Bubble Update

March 9, 2012

Although conference tournament results often do not sway the opinions of the members of the Selection Committee as some would believe, teams at the edge of the bubble can definitely play themselves into the field if 68, or play themselves out of the field of 68, in tourney action.
And having said that, Thursday definitely had more meaningful developments on the bubble than any day in recent weeks.

After the smoke cleared, here's what has transpired in our brackets:

1) Pac-12 a two-bid league? Or a 1-bid league? We've reconsidered the Pac's plight and believe it will probably be limited to two bids at most, especially after regular-season champ Washington bowed in its first outing in the conference tourney vs. Oregon State. Since the league had no marquee wins of consequence in non-conference play, it goes to reason that the Committee is not going to fish too deep in the Pac. Oregon's loss in the Thursday nightcap vs. Colorado likely bumped the Ducks off of the bubble as well, and Cal is not safe by any means if it loses to the Buffs in one of Friday's semifinals. As for Washington, it cannot simply back on its regular-season crown, because that's not what gets awarded with an automatic bid. And this year in the Pac-12, nothing is automatic.

2) Northwestern? Right now we're saying "out" for the Wildcats after their Friday overtime loss vs. Minnesota in the first round of Big Ten Tourney action. An 18-13 overall mark and an 8-11 Big conference record probably aren't going to cut it.

3) South Florida? This will be a test case for the influence of the Big East. The Bulls could have likely sealed their bid with a win over Notre Dame on Thursday but instead bowed in overtime and are going to be riding the bubble all of the way to Selection Sunday.

4) Mississippi State? A bad loss vs. Georgia on Thursday in the SEC puts the Bulldogs in more bubble trouble. We're just not sure enough teams leaped ahead of the Maroon on Sunday to knock MSU out of the field.

5) NC State? The Thursday win over Boston College at the ACC Tourney in Atlanta shouldn't have moved the needle too much for the Wolfpack, but given the losses elsewhere (Northwestern and Oregon in particular), we have put the Pack back into our field of 68. For the moment.

After Thursday's games, here's how our projected seeds (1 thru 16) for the Big Dance set up as of AM, Friday, March 9..

No. 1 seeds...Kentucky, Syracuse, Kansas, North Carolina.
No. 2 seeds...Duke, Missouri, Ohio State, Michigan State.
No. 3 seeds...Marquette, Michigan, Indiana, Baylor.
No. 4 seeds...Wisconsin, Florida State, Georgetown, Louisville.
No. 5 seeds...Wichita State, Temple, UNLV, Florida.
No. 6 seeds...Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Creighton, Memphis.
No. 7 seeds...Virginia, Saint Mary's, Saint Louis, Murray State.
No. 8 seeds...New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Purdue, San Diego State.
No. 9 seeds...Iowa State, Kansas State, Cincinnati, UConn.
No. 10 seeds...Alabama, BYU, Long Beach State, Colorado State.
No. 11 seeds...California, Washington, Long Beach State, Virginia Commonwealth.
No. 12 seeds...Miami-Fla., West Virginia, Texas, NC State, Southern Miss.
No. 13 seeds...Akron, Belmont, Harvard, Mississippi State, Drexel.
No. 14 seeds...Loyola-Md., Davidson, Detroit, Nevada.
No. 15 seeds...Lehigh, UT-Arlington, South Dakota State, Montana.
No. 16 seeds...Long Island, UNC-Asheville, Norfolk State, Stony Brook, Mississippi Valley State, Western Kentucky.

Last four in...NC State, Southern Miss, Mississippi State, Drexel.
First four out...South Florida, Tennessee, Seton Hall, Arizona.
Next four out...Northwestern, Oregon, Iona, Oral Roberts.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 10:21 AM

SEC Tourney quarterfinals

March 8, 2012

The afternoon session for Friday’s SEC Tournament quarterfinals will start at 1:00 p.m. Eastern when top-ranked Kentucky takes on LSU. Florida and Alabama will square off in the second game. Let’s take a look at both of these contests and more…

**Kentucky vs. LSU**

--Most betting shops opened Kentucky (30-1 straight up, 12-17-1 against the spread) as a 16 ½-point favorite. As of early Thursday night, no total had been posted.

--Since going through a brutal 0-13-1 ATS slide that last nearly two months, John Calipari’s team has covered the number at a lucrative 9-4 ATS clip. UK wrapped up the regular season this past Sunday by going into Gainesville and knocking off Florida, 74-59, as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ Anthony Davis led the way with 22 points, 12 rebounds and six blocked shots. He made 9-of-13 shots from the field, as did Terrence Jones, who tallied 19 points, four boards, three blocks and a pair of steals.

--LSU (18-13 SU, 17-11 ATS) advanced to play another day (and probably locked up a bid to the NIT) by beating Arkansas by a 70-54 count in the tournament’s lid-lifter Thursday afternoon. The Tigers took the cash as 2 ½-point favorites. The 124 combined points fell ‘under’ the 136 ½-point total. Johnny O’Bryant III was the catalyst with 18 points and 11 rebounds in just 22 minutes of playing time off the bench.

--When these teams met in Baton Rouge on Jan. 28, Kentucky cruised to a 74-50 win as a 10-point road favorite. Jones enjoyed one of his best games of the season, finished with 27 points, nine rebounds, three blocked shots and two steals. Davis had 16 points, 10 boards and three rejections. In the losing effort, O’Bryant had 12 points and nine rebounds.

--Kentucky has been a double-digit favorite 22 times, compiling an 8-13-1 ATS ledger.

--LSU has a 1-3 spread record in four games as a double-digit underdog.

--The ‘under’ is 16-12 overall for LSU, 4-1 in its last five games.

--The ‘under’ is 17-11 overall for Kentucky.

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**Alabama vs. Florida**

--Florida (22-9 SU, 11-14-1 ATS) brings a three-game losing streak to The Big Easy, but it says here that that’s a misleading factoid. The Gators did indeed have a bad loss at Georgia (76-62 two Saturdays ago), but there’s no shame in losing at Vanderbilt or vs. Kentucky.

--Alabama (21-10 SU, 12-15 ATS) had to struggle and failed to cover in Thursday’s 63-57 win over South Carolina as a 9 ½-point favorite. Trevor Lacey came off the bench to score a game-high 15 points in just 17 minutes of action. JaMychal Green added 12 points and seven rebounds for the Tide.

--Anthony Grant’s team has won five of its last six games to almost certainly clinch an at-large invite to the NCAA Tournament regardless of the result in this game vs. UF.

--When these teams met at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama was without its two leading scorers Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green. Mitchell’s suspension remains in effect, but Green has now returned. The game was tied at intermission but UF went on a 16-0 run to start the second half and went on to capture a 61-52 win as a three-point road favorite. Patric Young scored 19 points for the Gators, while Bradley Beal and Erik Murphy finished with 14 points apiece. Andrew Steele had a team-high 11 points for ‘Bama.

--Billy Donovan’s team has compiled a 6-4 spread record in 10 single-digit ‘chalk’ situations. Meanwhile, Alabama is 2-2 ATS in four games as an underdog.

--The ‘over’ is 16-10 overall for UF.

--The ‘over’ is 14-13 overall for ‘Bama, but the ‘under’ is 5-2 in its last seven games.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--I might end up being incorrect on my all-year-long assertion that South Carolina’s Darrin Horn is on his way out after a brutal campaign. The fourth-year head coach has yet to take the Gamecocks to the NCAA Tournament. However, a VegasInsider.com source that is close to the program has indicated that the chances are good that he’ll be retained because of the school’s desire to not pay the $2.4 million buyout. The logical replacement would be Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall, who spent time in the state when he was at Winthrop. But the same source told VI that Marshall, who undoubtedly wants the job, has rubbed a few important people (USC higher-ups) the wrong way. We shall see what happens with this situation…

--Northwestern: I feel your pain.

--Northwestern’s loss is Tennessee’s gain and could also benefit Mississippi St.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 11:16 AM

Early NCAAB Best Bets:

03/09/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[821] TOTAL o151 1.91
(MARYLAND vrs N CAROLINA)

03/09/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[822] N CAROLINA -15½ 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 11:25 AM

CBB

[824] VIRGINIA -3 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[829] TOTAL o151 1.91
(MASSACHUSETTS vrs TEMPLE)

03/09/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[838] MICHIGAN ST -10½ 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 11:25 AM

CBB

[840] WISCONSIN +1 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 10:00 AM

CBB

[846] KENTUCKY -17 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 10:00 AM

CBB

[846] TOTAL u129½ 1.91
(LSU vrs KENTUCKY)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 11:17 AM

Other Best Bets:

03/09/2012 @ 03:30 PM

CBB

[833] LASALLE +7 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 03:30 PM

CBB

[841] MINNESOTA U +5½ 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 03:30 PM

CBB

[842] TOTAL u123 1.91
(MINNESOTA U vrs MICHIGAN)

03/09/2012 @ 12:30 PM

CBB

[847] ALABAMA +3½ 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 12:30 PM

CBB

[847] TOTAL o127 1.91
(ALABAMA vrs FLORIDA)

03/09/2012 @ 01:00 PM

CBB

[853] MARSHALL +1½ 1.91

03/09/2012 @ 01:00 PM

CBB

[853] TOTAL o135 1.91
(MARSHALL vrs SOUTHERN MISS)

03/09/2012 @ 03:30 PM

CBB

[856] TOTAL u132½ 1.91
(CENTRAL FLA vrs MEMPHIS U)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 11:25 AM

Massachusetts vs Temple When: 12:00 PM ET, Friday, March 9, 2012

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Massachusetts vs Temple
When: 12:00 PM ET, Friday, March 9, 2012
Where: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, New Jersey

THE STORY: Before leaving the league for the Big East, top-seeded Temple will attempt to win its 10th Atlantic-10 tournament. The 24th-ranked Owls won’t have it easy in the quarterfinals against Massachusetts at Atlantic City, N.J. The Minutemen led Temple by six in overtime Feb. 29, but fell 90-88 in Philadelphia. Massachusetts averaged 75.2 points in A-10 games, second only to Temple. The Minutemen, allowing 74.5 points in A-10 games, will have to play better defense if they are to make a run. Temple has won 13 of its last 14 games.

TV: Noon ET; CBS Sports Network (regional), Comcast Sportsnet.

ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS (21-10, 9-7 Atlantic-10): The Minutemen have rebounded from a 1-4 stretch with two straight victories, including a 92-83 triumph over Duquesne in the first round of the tournament. UMass shot 50.8 percent from the field in that game, far better than its season average (43.3). Sophomore Chaz Williams, a first-team Atlantic-10 pick, leads the Minutemen, averaging 16.4 points and 6.4 assists. Fellow sophomore Raphiael Putney is next at 10.5 points. UMass was third in field-goal percentage defense (41.0) in the A-10, but only two teams allowed more field goals made during league play.

ABOUT TEMPLE (24-6, 13-3 Atlantic-10): The Owls won their first outright A-10 regular-season championship since 1989-90 and their 10th overall. Temple has done it by being very efficient on offense, shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 40.2 from 3-point range. First-team A-10 selection Ramone Moore averages 17.8 points, closely followed by Khalif Wyatt (17.1), who makes almost 40 percent of his 3-point attempts. Point guard Juan Fernandez averages 11.4 points and makes 43.1 percent of his 3-pointers. Center Micheal Eric averages 9.2 points and a team-best 8.7 rebounds and 2.1 blocks.

TIP-INS

1. Temple has won five of the last six meetings – three in overtime.

2. Massachusetts has had at least two players scoring 20 points or more in back-to-back games for the first time since 2007.

3. Temple has had four or more players in double figures 16 times this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 11:26 AM

Iowa vs Michigan St When: 12:00 PM ET, Friday, March 9, 2012

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Iowa vs Michigan St
When: 12:00 PM ET, Friday, March 9, 2012
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana

THE STORY: For whatever reason, top-seeded Michigan State hasn’t had much success in the Big Ten tournament through the years. Despite being highly ranked and having first-round byes on several occasions, the Spartans haven’t won the tourney since 2000. In fact, over the last 10 years, they’re one of only five teams that hasn’t even reached the championship game. No. 8 seed Iowa, meanwhile, is trying to keep its slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Hawkeyes defeated Illinois 64-61 in the opening round, but they’ve struggled against the Spartans. Michigan State has won eight of the last nine in the series, including three straight.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN

ABOUT IOWA (17-15): Matt Gatens had a team-high 20 points against Illinois as the Hawkeyes rallied from a four-point halftime deficit. Iowa snapped its five-game losing streak in the Big Ten tournament. The Hawkeyes, who won the crown in 2006, struggled in the first meeting against the Spartans, a 95-61 thumping in East Lansing. In that game, head coach Fran McCaffery received a technical for arguing with an official and also slammed a chair during a timeout. But Iowa is feeling much more confident now, winning four of its last six games including a pair of victories over ranked opponents.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (24-7): After blowing its chance at winning an outright regular-season title with a 72-70 loss to Ohio State on Sunday, the Spartans will try to bounce back without one of their best players. Branden Dawson, a freshman guard who averaged eight points and four rebounds, suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Buckeyes. Brandon Wood, a senior, is expected to start in his place for the Spartans, who are 5-2 all-time in the quarterfinal round. Last year, Michigan State defeated Iowa 66-61 in an opening-round game before eventually falling to Penn State in the semifinals.

TIP-INS:
1. The winner will advance to play either Wisconsin or Indiana on Saturday in the semifinals.

2. Tom Izzo is 23-9 against Iowa. However, the Spartans are just 2-2 against the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten tournament.

3. Iowa is 4-3 against Top 25 opponents.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 11:28 AM

Indiana vs Wisconsin When: 2:25 PM ET, Friday, March 9, 2012

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Indiana vs Wisconsin
When: 2:25 PM ET, Friday, March 9, 2012
Where: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana

THE STORY: After going one-and-done in three straight Big Ten tournaments, No. 4 seed Wisconsin will try to end that drought when it takes on the fifth-seeded Hoosiers in the quarterfinals at Indianapolis. Indiana defeated 12th-seeded Penn State 75-58 in its opening-round game, but has struggled against the Badgers the last several years. Wisconsin has won nine straight in the series, including a 57-50 win in late January. The winner will advance to play either top-seeded Michigan State or No. 8 Iowa in the semifinals Saturday.

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT INDIANA (25-7): While Indiana was thrilled to snap its five-game Big Ten tournament losing streak, the victory came with a heavy cost. Verdell Jones III, a senior guard who plays a prominent role, sustained a right knee injury late in the first half. The team called the injury a “sprain,” but coach Tom Crean didn’t sound optimistic in his post-game news conference. Even without Jones, the Hoosiers remain a dangerous opponent. They’ve won eight of their last nine, including five straight victories by 11 points or more. Jordan Hulls had a team-high 20 points against Penn State, and Cody Zeller added 19 points and 10 rebounds.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (23-8): The Badgers closed out the regular season with three straight victories and pursue their first Big Ten title since 2008. They can’t possibly perform as poorly as they did in last year’s quarterfinal against Penn State. In that game, a 36-33 loss, Wisconsin shot 29 percent from the field and nine percent from 3-point range. Jordan Taylor, who averages a team-best 14.6 points, has been the offensive catalyst of late. The senior guard scored 57 points during the three-game win streak and had 19 in a 63-60 victory over Ohio State on Feb. 26.

TIP-INS:
1. A victory would give Indiana its most since posting a 31-4 record in the 1992-93 season.

2. Six of Wisconsin’s nine straight victories in the series have come by at least 10 points.

3. The Badgers have received a first-round bye in 12 straight tournaments, a conference record. They are 14-12 all-time in the event.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 12:04 PM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Friday's Top College Basketball Trends

INDIANA is 10-1 ATS after a win by 15 points or more (vs Wisconsin)

MARYLAND is 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games (vs N Carolina)

SAINT LOUIS is 7-0 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite (vs LaSalle)

ALABAMA is 15-37 ATS off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite (vs Florida)

BAYLOR is 4-14 ATS off a win against a conference rival (vs Kansas)

KENTUCKY is 30-12 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or mor (vs LSU)

MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite (vs Iowa)

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 04:47 PM

Lakers And Clippers Face Friday Road Tests

The Dallas Mavericks will be the only squad involved in the 10-game NBA betting card on Friday night playing in a back-to-back situation.

One of the most pivotal of those games pits the Portland Trail Blazers against the Boston Celtics. These two teams are going to tip from TD Garden in Beantown at 7:30 p.m. (ET).

Both teams are trying to figure out whether they are buyers or sellers as the NBA trade deadline draws near in about a week. Portland is on the outside of the playoffs right now, but the way the Western Conference is going, there are any number of about a dozen teams that could still get into the postseason. Boston is still trying to run down the top spot in the Atlantic Division, though there is a big difference between winning the Atlantic and really having a team that could beat the Miami Heat or the Chicago Bulls, the two teams that seem destined to be playing each other in the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight season.

Boston has ruled the series against the spread recently with 10 covers in the last 13, though the Blazers did cover the last meeting in Beantown, a 99-95 loss in December 2010.

More bad news for Portland: The Blazers are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games, and are in just the second test of a seven-game road trip.

Both teams from Tinseltown are going to be involved in road clashes against teams that they might meet in the playoffs this year. The Los Angeles Clippers are taking on the San Antonio Spurs, while the Los Angeles Lakers are facing the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Spurs haven't played all that well at home since coming back from their Rodeo Road Trip, as they are just 2-2 SU and ATS in these first four of a seven-game homestand. The Clippers are finishing up a road trip that has resulted in a 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS mark, though this is clearly the toughest of the five games.

Blake Griffin does have a mild ankle sprain that might be worth watching, but no one figures that he is going to miss this game despite being listed on the injury report as questionable.

Injury matters aren't nearly as good for the Timberwolves. They don't expect Jose Barea to suit up against the Lakers, and Nikola Pekovic is listed as questionable with a foot injury that has kept him out of back-to-back games.

The Lakers have already lost two games on this roadie, and those two losses were brutal against the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards.

The Lakers and T-Wolves get started at 8:00 (ET) on Friday night, while the Clippers and Spurs tip a half hour later at 8:30 (ET).

NBA TV features a doubleheader on Friday night as well. At 7:00 (ET), the New Jersey Nets take on the Charlotte Bobcats in a battle of two of the Eastern Conference cellar dwellers, while the nightcap at 10:00 (ET) pits the defending NBA champion Mavericks against the Sacramento Kings.

At 7:00 (ET), the Philadelphia 76ers hope to take down the Utah Jazz in the City of Brotherly Love. The other early tip at 7:30 (ET) features the Atlanta Hawks on the road against the Detroit Pistons. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are trying to build up their 17-1 SU home record at 8:00 (ET).

The New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks get it on at 8:30 (ET) from the Bradley Center, and at 9:00 (ET), the New Orleans Hornets will take on another of the Western Conference contenders, the Denver Nuggets.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 04:49 PM

Friday Tips

March 8, 2012

Championship week continues around college basketball, but there is plenty of action to wager on inside the NBA on Friday night. Ten games take place, including several key Western Conference matchups between the Lakers and Wolves, while the Spurs host the Clippers. We'll start in Philadelphia as the 76ers try to prove that Wednesday's blowout of the Celtics wasn't a fluke as the Jazz comes to town.

Jazz at 76ers - 7:05 PM EST

Utah has picked up consecutive away victories for the first time all season after winning at Cleveland and Charlotte. The Jazz continues a five-game road swing at the Wells Fargo Center on Friday, battling a Philadelphia squad that is 3-8 SU/ATS the previous 11 contests. The Sixers blew away the Celtics, 103-71 as six-point favorites, as Philadelphia led by 22 points at the half. Philadelphia is playing with revenge after losing at Utah in late December, 102-99, as the Jazz cashed in the home underdog role. The Jazz is 4-1 ATS the last five games, while Utah failed to cover as seven-point favorites in Wednesday's six-point road triumph at Charlotte.

Nets at Bobcats - 7:05 PM EST

Less than a week ago, Deron Williams lit up Charlotte with an NBA season-high 57 points in a 104-101 road victory. The Nets go for their third win of the season over the Bobcats, while seeking back-to-back victories for the second time this season. The Clippers fell at New Jersey on Wednesday as seven-point favorites, 101-100, as the Nets have alternated wins and losses in each of their last 10 games. The Bobcats have quietly covered three straight games, while knocking off the Magic as nine-point 'dogs on Monday. The Nets own a 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS record off a victory this season, as New Jersey has failed to cash in its last four opportunities as a favorite.

Hawks at Pistons - 7:35 PM EST

The Pistons pulled off one of their bigger upsets of the season by knocking off the Lakers in overtime on Tuesday as 5 ½-point home underdogs. Detroit welcomes in an Atlanta club that is fresh off consecutive road 'dog covers at Indiana and Miami. The Hawks couldn't come through against the Heat, but cashed as 12 ½-point 'dogs in an 89-86 defeat on Wednesday, the fourth straight cover for Atlanta. The last time the Hawks invaded the Palace, Atlanta rallied past Detroit, 107-101 in overtime, while Marvin Williams drilled five treys in the win. The Pistons are on fire against the number at home by cashing in 10 of their past 13 games at the Palace.

Blazers at Celtics - 7:35 PM EST

Boston returns home after getting thrashed at Philadelphia, as the Celtics host the Blazers. Portland owns a dreadful 6-12 ATS record away from the Rose Garden, capped off by Wednesday's defeat at Minnesota as short favorites. The Celtics head to the West Coast for an eight-game road trip starting Sunday against the Lakers, as Boston has won five of six games since the All-Star break. Portland has failed to cover as an underdog of 3 ½ points or less this season by compiling an 0-8 ATS ledger. Boston is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the previous 10 meetings with Portland, including five straight wins at TD Garden.

Lakers at Wolves - 8:05 PM EST

Los Angeles melted down twice against sub-.500 teams on its three-game road swing with losses at Detroit and Washington. The Lakers look to close things out with a victory over a Minnesota squad that is riding a five-game home winning streak. The Wolves are 0-2 SU/ATS this season against the Lakers, including a loss at Staples Center without Kevin Love last week, 104-85 as seven-point 'dogs. Minnesota owns a 9-4 ATS record the last 13 games in the underdog role, while putting together a 6-2 ATS mark as a home 'dog this season.

Cavaliers at Thunder - 8:05 PM EST

Oklahoma City continues a five-game homestand as the Thunder goes for their 10th win in 11 tries against the Cavs. Cleveland pulled off a solid upset as 10-point 'dogs on Wednesday at Denver, 100-99 to halt a six-game losing streak. The Cavs improved to 3-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog with the victory over the Nuggets, but Cleveland is 2-7 ATS the previous nine games off a cover. The Thunder has put together a 17-1 SU record at Chesapeake Energy Arena, but OKC is barely profiting at home with a 10-8 ATS ledger.

Knicks at Bucks - 8:35 PM EST

New York is reverting back to its old ways with four straight losses on the road, while going 2-5 the last seven games. The Knicks attempt to wrap up this four-game away swing with a victory over a Bucks' team that has covered both games as a home 'dog against the Sixers and Bulls. Milwaukee lost to Chicago for the fourth time this season on Wednesday, falling short at the buzzer in a 106-104 defeat as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Bucks have won six of the last seven meetings in the series, while covering all seven times.

Clippers at Spurs - 8:35 PM EST

San Antonio is just 3-3 since pulling out 11 straight victories as the Spurs look to beat the Clippers for the third time this season. Los Angeles is trying to snap a two-game skid after losing in the final seconds at Minnesota and New Jersey. The Clippers are a strong 11-4 SU and 10-3 ATS off a loss this season, including a 4-1 ATS mark as an underdog. The Spurs rallied past the Clips in overtime at Staples Center, 103-100 on February 18, as San Antonio drilled a late three-pointer to force OT. Playing at the AT&T Center has been a house of horrors for the Clippers over the years, as L.A. is 0-17 since 2002 on the road in this series.

Hornets at Nuggets - 9:05 PM EST

Denver has failed to cover as 'chalk' of nine points or more in the last two games against Sacramento and Cleveland, as the Nuggets host the Hornets. New Orleans is a covering machine as a large 'dog, going 5-1 ATS the last six times when receiving at least nine points. The Hornets fell short in Wednesday's one-point defeat at Sacramento, the fifth loss in six games since the All-Star break. New Orleans upset Denver at the Pepsi Center, 94-81 as 13-point underdogs in early January, one of three outright wins as a 'dog of nine or more. The Nuggets haven't been a great look at home off a loss, posting a 2-7 ATS record.

Mavericks at Kings - 10:05 PM EST

Dallas plays the second game in a three-night stretch as the Mavs head to Northern California to battle the Kings. Sacramento has won five of its past seven contests at Power Balance Pavilion, while squeaking by New Orleans on Wednesday. The Kings are playing with revenge here after getting drubbed at Dallas by 36 points on January 14, while Sacramento has lost 10 straight meetings in the series. The Mavs are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games as a road favorite, including losses at Cleveland and New Orleans.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 04:57 PM

Hoop Trends - Friday

March 9, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Trailblazers are 11-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since January 15, 2005 on the road after a road loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Knicks are 0-11-1 OU (-5.6 ppg) since December 05, 2010 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nets are 0-11 OU (-17.9 ppg) since November 24, 2010 when at least one team has rest after a win at home in which Kris Humphries had a double double.

CHOICE TREND:

The Pistons are 0-11-1 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since February 21, 2006 at home with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 04:59 PM

Spurs worth a look?

March 7, 2012

Looking For NBA Futures Value? Head West

The San Antonio Spurs are old and injured, but they're far from irrelevant. Three Spurs starters are 29 years or older, and that's not including injured 34-year-old Manu Ginobili, who missed most of the first half of the season after suffering an injury to his shooting hand and is now coming off the bench.

At 25-12 overall, the Spurs are a near lock (99.8 percent) to advance to the NBA playoffs for a 15th consecutive season. In a wide open Western Conference, the Spurs currently have the second-best chance of winning the championship at 6.0 percent, behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder (14.4 percent). It might be a different story if the Spurs were in the Eastern Conference, where it'd be hard to consider the Spurs as a contender when the Bulls and Heat have distanced themselves from the field. The Spurs are projected to win 44 games, which would earn them a No. 2 seed and give them an outside chance at prying the top seed away from the Thunder. Either way, a Thunder-Spurs Western Conference final seems like a definite possibility.

If that's the case, the Spurs' futures odds - currently 15/1 - could provide value to bettors who try for a pre-planned hedge. You'd only need the Spurs to win their first two playoff series before you can lock in profit by hedging on the opponent (in this case, the Thunder and possibly the Bulls or Heat in the NBA Finals). San Antonio has held its own at less than full strength against the league's third-hardest schedule. Ginobili has returned, and the Spurs could make a deal at the trade deadline to increase their depth; it's possible they could make a run at a fifth championship.

San Antonio has already played the toughest schedule to date and is 25-12 straight up. The Spurs are 11-9 SU away from home and 14-3 SU at home. As stated above, they could get home court up to West Finals before likely traveling to OKC. As of right now the Spurs would match up with Houston in the first round (2-0 at home vs. Houston so far this season) and either LA Clippers or Dallas in the 2nd round (3-1 SU combined against both this season).

They wrapped up a nine game road trip right before the All-Star break and went 8-1 SU. That road trip wrapped up the first half of the season that was dominated by road games - 20 of first 34 games this year on the road so majority of second half at home. The Spurs are 13-3 SU their last 13 overall and 15-8 SU versus teams with a current .500 or better record.

With Ginobili back, the Spurs get arguably their best playmaker with the ball in his hands. He's only played in 10 games this year. He's averaged 15+ points per game over the last seven years and his veteran leadership will be huge in the playoffs. Ginobili's injury may have been a blessing in disguise. His injury allowed the development of younger players like DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, and Kawhi Leonhard. They now have a strong core of veteran leaders plus a handful of capable young players to add depth for the rest of the season and a long playoff run.

Many people forget that the Spurs were the top seed in the West last season before being upset in the first round by Memphis. Division rival Dallas then was the most experienced team remaining in the West and was able to advance to the NBA Finals where they upset the Heat. San Antonio should hold off Dallas for top spot in Southwest this season. Dallas sputtered out of the gates and is just 7-9 SU versus current .500+ teams, and just 8-7 overall SU on road. Dallas has shown no sign of a late-season surge as the Mavs are just 3-6 over their last nine games.

Obviously San Antonio is a safe bet to advance to the playoffs, and from there we don't see any team unseating the Spurs before they advance to play OKC in the conference finals. And at 15/1 odds to reach the finals, you'll have your choice to ride those odds to the end, or hedge your bet accordingly.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 05:01 PM

Clippers look for rare win at San Antonio Friday

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (22-15)

at SAN ANTONIO SPURS (26-12)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -5½, Total: 193½

The new-look Clippers get another chance to solve the Spurs when they visit San Antonio Friday night.

The Spurs have dispatched of the Clippers twice this season, blowing them out by 25 in San Antonio in December, and edging them in overtime at L.A. in February. This will be the toughest game of the Clippers’ six-game road trip, which hasn’t gone well so far. They won (SU and ATS) at Sacramento and Houston, but they lost at Phoenix, Minnesota (but covered) and New Jersey. Can the Spurs win and cover again on Friday night? For the answer, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass continues its profitable run, going 31-24 ATS (56.4%) since Feb. 13.

The Clippers continue to be the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin show. So far on their road trip, Paul (19.8 PPG, 8.4 APG) has been dominant, averaging 21.2 PPG and 7.8 APG while Griffin (21.4 PPG, 11.2 RPG) has added 19.8 PPG and 11.2 RPG. They’re also getting better play out of sixth man Mo Williams (13.5 PPG), who’s averaging 14.6 PPG and hitting 42.3% of his threes during the road trip. It’s helped make up for a brutal slump from SF Caron Butler (13.0 PPG), who is averaging 7.6 PPG on 29.2% FG so far on this road trip. The FoxSheets provide a strong coaching trend siding with the Clips:

Vinny Del Negro is 18-4 ATS (81.8%, +13.6 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists in all games he has coached since 1996. The average score was Del Negro 99.8, OPPONENT 99.9 - (Rating = 2*).

After being limited by injuries coming out of the break, the Spurs are starting to get healthy. SG Manu Ginobili (12.2 PPG) is back from an oblique injury and has had two strong games coming off the bench, scoring eight points in 24 minutes against the Nuggets on Sunday and pouring in 17 with six assists in 26 minutes in a win over New York on Wednesday. He had an average plus/minus of +11.5 in those games. After being limited by an illness, PF Tim Duncan (14.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG) is 100 percent again. He had 17 points and eight boards against the Knicks on Wednesday.

PG Tony Parker (19.5 PPG, 7.9 APG) continues to have a career year. He had 32 on 12-for-19 shooting from the field in the Knicks win. When they visited the Clippers three weeks ago, he had 30 points and 10 assists in the overtime win. Chris Paul was outplayed by Parker in both of their matchups so far this year, as Paul posted an average plus/minus of -18.5 in those losses. The FoxSheets have a strong trend supporting the Spurs:

SAN ANTONIO is 41-20 ATS (67.2%, +19.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.2, OPPONENT 98.5 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-09-2012, 05:02 PM

Lakers seek 18th straight win over Wolves Friday

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (23-16)

at MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (21-19)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 193

The Lakers try to salvage at least one win in their three-game road trip Friday when they visit a Minnesota team that they have beaten 17 straight times.

Los Angeles is a miserable play on the road, going 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS. This includes back-to-back losses Tuesday at Detroit and Wednesday in Washington, when the Lakers coughed up a 21-point, third-quarter lead. Meanwhile, Minnesota has beaten some quality opponents during a five-game home win streak, taking down Philadelphia, Utah, L.A. Clippers and Portland in the past four. The pick here is MINNESOTA to end its long losing skid in this series.

The FoxSheets provide this strong trend showing that L.A. is not a strong bet when playing with tired legs:

L.A. LAKERS are 3-11 ATS (21.4%, -9.1 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season. The average score was L.A. LAKERS 90.6, OPPONENT 92.0 - (Rating = 1*).

Los Angeles scores just 90.9 PPG (42.5% FG, 27.5% threes) on the road this season, compared to 97.3 PPG (47.9% FG, 32.9% threes) at home. The defense has also been lackadaisical away from Staples Center (96.2 PPG) as compared to in Los Angeles (86.9 PPG). SG Kobe Bryant continues to lead the NBA in scoring at 28.7 PPG, but was a dreadful 9-of-31 shooting (1-for-10 FG in fourth quarter) of Wednesday’s loss to the Wizards. But he has always enjoyed facing the Timberwolves in his career, averaging 27.5 PPG against them since the 2004-05 campaign. This includes 33.0 PPG (48% FG) 10.5 RPG and 5.0 APG in two meetings this season. PF Pau Gasol continues to shake off the lingering trade rumors and produce on a consistent basis. He tallied his third straight double-double on Wednesday with 19 points and 15 rebounds. C Andrew Bynum, whose 12.7 RPG rank third in the NBA, had more turnovers (seven) than rebounds (six) in the loss to the 9-29 Wizards. Bynum has played well against Minnesota though, with 17.0 PPG (61% FG) and 10.0 RPG in the two matchups this season.

For Minnesota to finally beat the Lakers, the defense will have to step up. The Timberwolves have allowed 94+ points in each of the past eight games, allowing an average of 100.5 PPG on 46.3% FG during this stretch. Although the Wolves have shot poorly in two meetings this season (38.9% FG, 10-of-40 threes), they played the Lakers tough at home in January (106-101 loss) and All-Star PF Kevin Love missed the last meeting on Feb. 29 with the flu. Love leads the NBA with 34 double-doubles, and he has been rolling during a three-game win streak with 36.7 PPG and 14.3 RPG. He scored 29 points and grabbed 16 boards in Wednesday’s 106-94 win over Portland. SG Luke Ridnour added 22 points and five assists against the Blazers, but he has struggled in his career against the Lakers with just 7.6 PPG on 36.5% shooting from the floor. SF Wesley Johnson has had a rough sophomore campaign (6.1 PPG, 40% FG, 57% FT), but he’s coming off a season-high 19 points (8-of-11 FG) on Wednesday

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