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**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 11:24 AM

Saturday's Slate

March 2, 2012

One of the greatest rivalries in all of sports will be renewed Saturday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, where Duke (26-4 straight up, 13-17 against the spread) will try to sweep the season series from its bitter rival, North Carolina.

As of early Friday evening, The Wynn had Duke installed as a one-point home favorite. Most offshore shops had the total at 154.

When these teams squared off in Chapel Hill on Feb. 8, North Carolina (26-4 SU, 16-13 ATS), North Carolina took control of the game early in the second half with a 14-4 run that gave it a 57-44 advantage at the under-16 timeout. The Tar Heels maintained a comfortable lead (82-72) with 2:18 remaining.

But that’s when things quickly unraveled. After Duke hit a trey to pull to within seven, it forced a turnover and Seth Curry buried a deep 3-pointer from the left wing in transition.

In the final minute, UNC’s Tyler Zeller made just one of two free throws to give Duke the ball trailing by two for the final possession. Duke freshman Austin Rivers, who scored 16 of his game-high 29 points in the second half, played pick and roll at the top of the key.

As he dribbled to the right wing, UNC switched on the screen leaving Zeller, a post player, guarding Rivers. On a typical possession, Zeller would’ve been wise to give Rivers some distance and respect his quickness to penetrate. Alas, this wasn’t a typical possession.

UNC was up by two in the waning seconds at home and Zeller was giving entirely too much space to Rivers, who was in a groove with his perimeter jumper. Plus, there was the old adage – go for the tie at home, go for the win on the road – in play.

Nevertheless, Zeller gave Rivers entirely too much room and he was able to get a clean look at a 26-footer that caught nothing but nylon at the buzzer. Rivers’s heroics capped one of the most remarkable comeback wins in this storied rivalry, as the Blue Devils prevailed by an 85-84 count as six-point underdogs.

Curry and Ryan Kelly finished with 15 points apiece for the winners. Meanwhile, Zeller had 23 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots in the losing effort. Harrison Barnes scored a team-high 25 points, while Jon Henson had 12 points and 17 boards.

Since the loss to Duke, UNC has won six consecutive games while compiling a 5-1 spread record. The Tar Heels are coming off Wednesday’s 88-64 win over Maryland as 18-point home favorites.

On Senior Night, Zeller stole the show with 30 points, eight rebounds and three blocked shots. He got to the charity stripe 23 times and converted 20 free-throw attempts. Henson added 19 points, nine boards and three rejections.

Duke has won seven in a row but has dropped back-to-back games ATS. The Blue Devils won a 79-71 decision at Wake Forest earlier this week, failing to cover as 12-point road ‘chalk.’

Kelly drained 4-of-5 shots from 3-point land and scored a game-high 23 points. Curry added 15 points.

Duke has limped to a 5-10 spread record at home and has lost outright twice (to FSU and Miami).

The ‘over’ is 19-11 overall for Duke, 10-5 in its home games. UNC has seen the ‘under’ cash at a 15-14 overall clip.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Immediately after Duke and UNC concludes, Kansas (25-5 SU, 15-13-1 ATS) will take on Texas in a Big 12 battle. As of early Friday night, most spots had the Jayhawks installed as 12-point home favorites with a total of 138.

Since losing at Missouri on Feb. 4, KU has won seven in a row, including Monday’s 70-58 win at Oklahoma St. as a nine-point road favorite. Thomas Robinson produced yet another double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds.

Texas (19-11 SU, 8-16-1 ATS) has won six of its last eight games, but it is in the midst of a 0-4 ATS slump. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma on Wednesday night by a 72-64 score as 10-point home favorites.

Sheldon McClellan scored a team-high 24 points for the ‘Horns. J’Covan Brown finished with 22 points, six boards and five assists.

When these schools met in Austin on Jan. 21, KU won a 69-66 decision but Texas took the cash as a 3 ½-point home underdog. The 135 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 137-point total. KU point guard Tyshawn Taylor scored 22 points and dished out four assists without committing a turnover. In the losing effort, Brown had a game-high 24 points with seven assists, six rebounds and three steals.

KU is 15-1 SU and 8-7 ATS at home. Texas has been an underdog seven times, going 4-2-1 ATS.

The ‘under’ is 17-10-2 overall for KU, but the ‘over’ is 10-5 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 13-12 overall for Texas, 6-2 in its last eight outings.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--I haven’t heard much discussion about Tennessee as a bubble team, but I think the Volunteers are very much in the mix for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. They own a 17-13 SU record and can pick up a big resume-building win Saturday at home vs. Vanderbilt. Most books are listing Vandy as a 1 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ The Vols are 9-6 in SEC play and have won seven of their last eight games. They have two wins over Florida and also own scalps over UConn, Ole Miss and LSU. If UT beats Vandy and can win two games at the SEC Tournament, it would be 20-14 with a 10-2 record down the stretch.

--Northwestern is in desperation mode Saturday at Iowa. The Wildcats are 2 ½-point underdogs.

--The defending national champions better win Saturday at home vs. Pittsburgh. The Huskies are six-point home favorites. Against his doctor’s wishes, UConn head coach Jim Calhoun attended Friday’s practice just four days after undergoing back surgery.

--I think Alabama (20-9 SU) is in good shape and can remove all doubt about its at-large hopes with a win Saturday at Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide is a 1 ½-point road favorite.

--Syracuse is a 9 ½-point home favorite Saturday vs. Louisville. CBS will have the telecast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 11:26 AM

March Madness Notes

March 2, 2012

Three sleeper picks to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament

Cinderella is never sleeping when the Big Dance comes around every March. Small programs like Butler, Virginia Commonwealth and George Mason have advanced to the Final Four in the last six years, so why not another?

Identifying and betting on a few sleeper teams, or Cinderella squads, is a fun and often profitable way to approach March Madness wagering. Had you put $100 on VCU to win the Southwest Region last season, you would have cashed out almost two grand.

Below, we identify a trio of "sleeper" teams that won't carry high tournament seeds but could make some noise in the latter stages of March Madness.

Memphis Tigers - Once a perennial contender when John Calipari broke every NCAA recruiting law in the book, the Tigers aren't even the unquestioned top team in Conference USA anymore. Memphis does carry a league-best 11-3 mark, but programs like Southern Miss and Tulsa have jumped into elite status as well. What we like about this year's squad is that seven of the nine players from the team that made the Big Dance last year are back, including four starters.

The Tigers played Arizona in the first round of the tourney and nearly upset the Wildcats (who made it all the way to the Elite Eight) as 5.5-point underdogs, losing 77-75. Will Barton has emerged as a stud in college basketball and will be a tough challenge for any defender to contain.

California Golden Bears - Some don't think the Pac-12 even deserves a conference-winner bid this season because it's so down. But Mike Montgomery has a beast of a squad in Berkeley. Cal has only dropped one game at home this year and is the only profitable Pac-12 team from a wagering standpoint, going 16-12 ATS.

The Bears won't beat you with jumpers but they are evenly balanced on both sides of the ball, and equilibrium can go a long way in the NCAA Tournament. If you recall, last year everyone was bad-mouthing the Pac-12 teams in the tourney but Washington beat Georgia in the first round and Arizona pulled off one upset after another on its way to the Elite Eight. Don't put the Bears in auto-hibernation come March.

Gonzaga Bulldogs - Gonzaga is the first team that really earned the title of "Cinderella." But once the Bulldogs started advancing to the tournament year after year, and often deep into it, that title was cast aside and they were viewed as legitimate contenders. St. Mary's has become the new trendy pick out of the West Coast Conference but don't sleep on the Zags.

They have a long team with two future NBAers in the 7-foot Robert Sacre and the 6-foot-7 Elias Harris. These two terrorizing frontcourt members, along with 6-foot-9 sixth man Sam Dower, don't allow many second-chance opportunities for opponents. The defense has been strong all season, evidenced by a 7-20-1 over/under record. Mark Few understands how to get the most out of his players come March.

BookMaker has March Madness wagering for every game of the NCAA Tournament. You can bet on all 32 individual matchup in the first round or use BookMaker's live betting feature to wager on games while you are watching them on TV.

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Kentucky and Syracuse likely top seeds in NCAA Tournament

With just one blemish on their regular season records, Kentucky and Syracuse will almost certainly claim the top two seeds in the NCAA Tournament. That honor comes with inflated spreads for the first few rounds of the Big Dance. Both the Wildcats and Orange will be no less than 17-point favorites in their first tournament game.

BookMaker sportsbook will offer a multitude of online avenues for March Madness betting including futures wagers, individual matchups and game props. Kentucky and Syracuse are far and away the top teams in the country. Even if one of them slips up early in their respective conference tourneys, the NCAA committee should still select them as a No. 1 seed.

The Wildcats have been voted as the No. 1 team in the nation by the pollsters six straight weeks. They haven't dropped a game at Rupp Arena all season, but haven't been a good team to bet on at home, going just 4-12-1 against the spread there. John Calipari's club finishes out the regular season with a home game against Georgia on Thursday and then a roadie at Florida on Sunday. Kentucky has a 1-6 over/under record on the road this year.

Syracuse hasn't lost at the Carrier Dome and will wrap up the regular season at home on Saturday versus Louisville. The Orange's suffocating zone defense has been sharp on their home floor, helping produce a 6-10-1 over/under mark there.

Kansas won seven games in a row, including Monday's victory at Oklahoma State, to clinch the outright Big 12 title and likely a NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed. The Jayhawks battled from 19 down in the second half Saturday to defeat Mizzou -- the same team that handed them their last loss on February 4. Bill Self has mentioned the immaturity of his young team at times, and inexperience isn't always a good thing during March Madness. Kansas hasn't cashed a single over in a road game this year.

The final top seed for the Big Dance is likely to be Michigan State. If the Spartans beat Ohio State in the regular season finale at home, where they are 11-3 ATS, they will win the Big Ten title.

MSU started the season unranked and then lost its first two games to North Carolina and Duke. But this program always seems to peak at the right time. No matter what state they enter the tourney in; Tom Izzo always has his Sparties ready to play come March.

If Duke wins the ACC tournament then it would make a strong case to the committee for a No. 1 bid.

Ohio State, an early favorite to win the national championship, has lost three of its last five games overall. If the Buckeyes can't win their conference tournament then they will look more like a No. 2 or 3 seed in the betting brackets rather than a No. 1.

The month of March generates a firestorm of madness for college basketball fans across the nation. BookMaker has March Madness betting odds for every game of the NCAA Tournament. You can make a futures bet and predict the national champion, wager on individual college basketball games or use BookMaker's live betting feature to wager on matchups while they're happening.

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**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 11:28 AM

UConn, 'Canes on the ropes

March 2, 2012

Conference Tourneys and the Desperation Factor
For bubble teams, the safest way to qualify for the NCAA men's basketball tournament is to win the conference tournament. Otherwise, you know, enjoy the agony of Selection Sunday and the potential for heartbreaking disappointment.

So with that in mind, when you're betting on conference tournament games it's important to take into account which teams are desperate to win, or at the very least which ones need to have a good showing to impress the selection committee.

The opposite is true as well. There are plenty of teams that are locks to earn an at-large bid to March Madness, so do you really think they'll be taking a do-or-die approach to games that really don't matter?

Take the Big East conference. A school like Syracuse is getting a bid to the NCAA tournament - there's not even a question there. But what about Connecticut? The defending champion Huskies have dropped nine of their last 12 heading into Saturday's final regular-season game versus Pitt. Wednesday they blew a big lead at Providence, losing 72-70 and severely hurting their chances of receiving an at-large bid in the process.

This is one of those games where you have to look yourself in the mirror and realize that you're not that good," said point guard Shabazz Napier. "Right now you're just an average kid trying to get out of the hole."

If the Huskies can beat the struggling Panthers, they'll finish with an 8-10 conference record. Will that be good enough? Maybe, maybe not.

Regardless, you have to think UConn will be desperate to play well when the Big East tournament starts next week at Madison Square Garden. Bomb out early and that's probably it.

By the way, we're giving Connecticut 50/1 odds to win the 2012 NCAA men's basketball championship at Bovada. Not surprisingly we haven't booked much action on the Huskies lately, but we're seeing a lot of money coming in on other Big East teams like Syracuse (7/1) and Georgetown (25/1).

Another team that would be wise to win at least a few games of its conference tournament is Miami, Fl.. The Hurricanes head into Saturday's regular-season finale versus Boston College with an 8-7 record in the ACC.

Despite beating Duke on Feb. 5, the 'Canes' overall body of work might not be good enough for an at-large bid. Which leaves the ACC Tournament. If the Canes can make a deep run in Atlanta, upsetting a team or two along the way, maybe the committee can be convinced to look past Miami's stumbles throughout the regular season.

Kentucky remains the 5/2 March Madness favorite at Bovada, followed by Ohio State (13/2) and North Carolina (7/1). Of note, we've seen a considerable bump in the action on Missouri (10/1). The Tigers have beaten a lot of good teams this year and played well Saturday at Kansas, losing by just a point in overtime.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 11:30 AM

UNC battles Duke for ACC crown Saturday

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (26-4, 13-2 ACC)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (26-4, 13-2 ACC)

Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Even, Total: 154

With the ACC regular season crown on the line, No. 6 North Carolina will travel down Tobacco Road to face No. 4 Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium before both teams enter postseason play.

Although Austin Rivers stunned the Dean Dome with a last-second three-pointer to give the Blue Devils an 85-84 win when the two teams last met, North Carolina has bounced back well winning six straight games (5-1 ATS) by an average of 15.3 PPG. The Heels are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their past six games in Durham, but they have dropped two in a row by 32 points and six points. Who will take home the conference title on Saturday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekend 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack is 11-7 ATS (61%) in its past three installments.

North Carolina is second in the nation in scoring (82.1 PPG) and brings height at every position, which could explain why the team leads the nation in rebounding (45.8 RPG). Zeller (16.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) is a leading candidate for ACC Player of the Year, with 25.0 PPG in his past two contests. Fellow big man John Henson (14.2 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 3.1 BPG) may be the best interior defender in the conference. Henson had 12 points and 17 rebounds against Duke earlier this year. Six-foot-8 forward Harrison Barnes (17.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG) is the team’s leading scorer, but he is coming off two weak performances (8.5 PPG, 6-of-23 FG). Barnes had a team-high 25 points in the Feb. 8 loss to the Blue Devils. The backcourt is big too, with 6-foot-7 Reggie Bullock (8.5 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 39% 3-pt FG) a threat from deep and 6-foot-4 PG Kendall Marshall (6.8 PPG, 9.6 APG) who uses his length to be the conference’s best passer. This FoxSheets trend also likes the Tar Heels to win on Saturday.

NORTH CAROLINA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was NORTH CAROLINA 74.5, OPPONENT 60.1 - (Rating = 2*).

Overall, Duke has been a terrible bet at Cameron (5-10 ATS), going 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games. The team is paced by Rivers (15.3 PPG) who has come into his own late this season. Although he scored only 10 in Tuesday’s 79-71 win (ATS loss) at Wake Forest, he had two 20-point performances prior to that and has scored double-digit points in 13 straight games, including his 29-point showing at UNC. Seth Curry (13.6 PPG) has also been strong lately (17.3 PPG in past six games) forming a dangerous duo in the backcourt. Junior Ryan Kelly (12.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) carried the Blue Devils over the Demon Deacons with a season-high 23 points on 4-of-5 shooting from deep, plus eight boards. Kelly, and the rest of Duke’s interior presence – Mason Plumlee (10.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG) and Miles Plumlee (6.5 PPG, 7.0 PPG) – will need to battle the Heels strong interior players to give Duke a chance. The FoxSheets provide a coaching trend backing the Blue Devils:

Mike Krzyzewski is 20-8 ATS (71.4%, +11.2 Units) in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better as the coach of DUKE. The average score was DUKE 89.4, OPPONENT 62.6 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 11:32 AM

No. 2 Syracuse hosts No. 19 Louisville Saturday

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (22-8, 10-7 Big East)

at SYRACUSE ORANGE (29-1, 16-1 Big East)

Tip-Off: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Syracuse -9½, Total: 131½

No Big East team has finished the regular season with only one conference loss since UConn did it back in 1995-96, but No. 2 Syracuse will have a chance to match this impressive mark when it hosts No. 19 Louisville at the Carrier Dome on Saturday.

Both teams are on four-game ATS losing skids despite combining for a 6-2 SU record during that stretch. The Cardinals are 7-1 (7-0-1 ATS) against the Orange since 2007, losing by just one point on Feb. 13. But the Cards are slumping, going 2-3 over their past five games, with a narrow three-point victory over Pittsburgh and an overtime road win against conference bottom-feeder DePaul. Can the Cardinals put a scare into Syracuse on Saturday? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekend 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack is 11-7 ATS (61%) in its past three installments.

Louisville had no answers for the pesky defense of South Florida in Wednesday’s frustrating 58-51 home loss to the Bulls. The Cards need leading scorer Kyle Kuric (13.1 PPG) to regain his shooting touch from the perimeter to keep this game close. When the normally smooth-shooting senior swingman doesn’t score, Louisville usually loses: Kuric is a combined 3-for-21 from downtown in the Cardinals’ past three losses. The performance of Louisville’s frontcourt will ultimately be the difference in this game. The Orange struggle to rebound the ball with consistency, and the Cards have tremendous depth down low with sophomore center Gorgui Dieng (9.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG) and freshman forward Chane Behanan (9.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG). Dieng and Behanan have failed to score in double figures or grab 10+ rebounds in either of Louisville’s past two games, so expect a bounce-back performance from them after the weak showing against South Florida. The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend backing the Cardinals:

Play Against - Home teams as a favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 60 points. (108-62 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.5%, +39.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The biggest weakness of an otherwise loaded Syracuse team this season has been the (lack of) rebounding. Despite boasting one of the longest and most athletic lineups in the country, the back line of Syracuse’s zone has tendency to watch shots rather than attack the rim and box out. The Orange have won the rebounding battle only two times (both against UConn) in their past six games—a statistic that could come back to haunt them during March. The depth of scoring throughout the lineup is what makes Syracuse so dangerous, especially senior forward Kris Joseph (14.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG), who scored 21 points (8-for-15 FG) in a narrow 63-61 victory at UConn last Saturday. Sophomore forward C.J. Fair (9.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) might be the most important player for the Orange moving forward though. Fair has scored in double figures in five of his past seven games, and is almost automatic on his patented baseline jumper. His ability to attack the rim also helps take the rebounding burden off of sophomore center Fab Melo (7.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG). This FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Orange to win big on Saturday.

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOUISVILLE) - off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 points or more against opponent off a road win against a conference rival. (82-46 since 1997.) (64.1%, +31.4 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 11:51 AM

NCAAB

Saturday, March 3

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What to watch: College basketball betting TV guide
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Pittsburgh Panthers at Connecticut Huskies, 12 p.m., ESPN (-5.5, 129)

Center Dante Taylor is coming on for the Panthers. The junior dropped a career-high 17 points in a win over St. John’s this week to go with eight rebounds. It was his second consecutive game in double figures after not cracking 10 points in 16 straight outings.

"I just tried to carry it over from last game," Taylor told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "I was able to finish around the basket. I tried to come in with confidence."

Washington Huskies at UCLA Bruins, 2 p.m., CBS (-3, 136)

Good luck in front of the home fans, Ben Howland. The embattled UCLA coach was trashed in a Sports Illustrated story that talked about him looking the other way when players did drugs, and allowing them to intentionally fight during training.

Howland said he addressed the issue multiple times with his team this week in practice and held a conference call to discuss the article with the media. However, an already unruly fan base won’t be too kind to Howland or provide much of an advantage.

"This is not a great day for the program and, of course, for me,” Howland told reporters. "Some of the story's claims I had no knowledge about, some were taken out of context and some were not true."

Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes, 2:30 p.m., Big Ten Network (-1.5, 142)

Go ahead and call it a must-win for the Wildcats. Northwestern, which never has made the NCAA Tournament, can kiss the big dance good-bye if it doesn’t come up with a victory against Iowa.

However, the team will likely be drained after a late rally came up just short in a last-second, 75-73 loss to Ohio State this week. The team admitted to watching SportsCenter in the locker room and following their constantly-changing status in the field of 68.

"As a team we are definitely embracing it and we know we have a chance to make history," Northwestern guard Reggie Hearn told the Chicago Sun-Times. "For each and every one of us to be a part of that is really special. We're looking forward to making that happen."

Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers, 4 p.m., ESPN (2, 134)

The Volunteers have a second-place SEC finish and a first-round bye in the league tournament in their sights thanks to forward Jarnell Stokes.

The freshman will be looking to build off a career-high18-point performance in an overtime win against LSU in which Tennessee rallied from 15 points down. Since becoming eligible in mid-January he is averaging nine points and seven rebounds per game.

"We've been through these situations plenty of times before, and we had the heart and mental toughness to win it,” Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin told GoVolsXtra.com. "We've got to do our job and do our part, but I think we're an NCAA tournament team."

Louisville Cardinals at Syracuse Orange, 4 p.m., CBS (-9, 131.5)

The Cardinals need to speed things up against the Orange. Louisville averaged just over 62 possessions the past five games and is struggling to find any rhythm offensively after a 58-51 clunker against South Florida on senior night. In the Cardinals’ past three losses, the team is averaging a horrendous 52.3 points.

“We want to play the pace as fast as we can and hit some shots,” Louisville guard Kyle Kuric told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “We try to do anything we can to get the tempo up, so we start forcing shots and making bad plays on offense.”

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils, 7 p.m., ESPN (Pick, 154)

Center Tyler Zeller proved he doesn’t need to make field goals to score points. The senior quieted doubts about his toughness in a win over Maryland this week, making a stunning 20 of 23 free throws and finishing with 30 points. Zeller averages 6.1 free-throw attempts per game and attempted 11 in an earlier loss to Duke this season.

“He’s got a little bit of that Ichabod Crane clumsiness to him that gets his arm, legs and head going every direction,” North Carolina coach Roy Williams told the Raleigh News & Observer. “So opposing defensive players have a lot of things that they can foul.”

Texas Longhorns at Kansas Jayhawks, 9 p.m., ESPN (-11.5, 139)

Sheldon McClellan may have secured a spot in the starting lineup after his dominating performance against Oklahoma this week.

The freshman guard exploded for a career-high 24 points in just his eighth start of the year, going 10 of 19 from the field. McClellan is expected to remain in the first five against Kansas.

“I got discouraged in the first half when I missed early shots, but the coaches told me to keep shooting, and that’s what I did in the second half,” McClellan told the Associated Press.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 12:35 PM

Ok...all these are my Best Bets but the one in BOLD is my College POD.....GOOD LUCK !

There will be another posting in the afternoon for the late games.....

03/03/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[515] PITTSBURGH +5½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[630] DREXEL -12½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 11:30 AM

CBB

[631] DELAWARE +6½ 1.91 ( POD # 1 )

03/03/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[634] VA COMMONWEALTH -12 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 11:30 AM

CBB

[638] WICHITA STATE -12 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 02:00 PM

CBB

[639] EVANSVILLE +6 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[641] DETROIT U +1 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 05:30 PM

CBB

[643] BUTLER -1 1.91

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 12:48 PM

Sorry about BOLDING Everything but you seen the POD.

03/03/2012 @ 09:00 AM

CBB

[655] APPALACHIAN ST -2 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 11:30 AM

CBB

[657] WESTERN CAROLINA +5 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 03:00 PM

CBB

[660] DAVIDSON -11½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 11:00 AM

CBB

[664] MURRAY STATE -6½ 1.91 ( POD # 2 )

03/03/2012 @ 11:30 AM

CBB

[666] FAIRFIELD -8½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 01:55 PM

CBB

[668] IONA -15½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 01:55 PM

CBB

[668] TOTAL u152½ 1.91
(MARIST vrs IONA)

03/03/2012 @ 02:00 PM

CBB

[674] E. WASHINGTON -9½ 1.91

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 12:49 PM

03/03/2012 @ 11:00 am

cbb

[677] no illinois +13½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 09:00 am

cbb

[679] ohio -4 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 09:00 am

cbb

[681] vmi +12½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 09:00 am

cbb

[684] stony brook -19 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 11:30 am

cbb

[686] albany ny -5½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 03:00 pm

cbb

[688] vermont -9½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 11:00 am

cbb

[692] lehigh -9½ 1.91

03/03/2012 @ 01:30 pm

cbb

[693] lafayette +12 1.91

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 12:53 PM

Thunder On A Roll Heading Into Atlanta

The majority of NBA players may be well rested, but scoring coming out of the All-Star Game is up just a tick.

Scoring since the break is at 96.2 PPG, just slightly above the season average (95 PPG). Note this is a very small sample size of just 25 games over three days (all Friday night games still pending).

The ‘under’ is 13-11-1 (54.2 percent) in the second half despite the slightly higher scoring. The ‘under’ is at 54.7 percent for the season, but has leveled off after a huge surge in the first few weeks. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals down to deal with lower scoring overall compared to prior years.

We now turn our attention to Saturday with seven games on the docket, highlighted by an NBA-TV doubleheader.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks
7:00 p.m. (ET) on Regional Broadcasts

Oklahoma City (29-7 SU, 21-15 ATS) is showing why it’s the Western Conference favorite with close wins at Philly (92-88) and Orlando (105-102) since the break. The Thunder have won 7-straight overall and covered 4-straight. They do have a big injury situation with guard Russell Westbrook spraining his ankle last game and questionable for Saturday.

Atlanta (20-15 SU, 16-18-1 ATS) hosts Milwaukee on Friday, but is a great 8-1 ATS in back-to-back situations this year. Scoring is the huge issue lately at 80.6 PPG the last five (the ‘under’ 5-0). There is almost no production off the bench and leading reserve Willie Green (7.7 PPG) was doubtful Friday with a back injury.

This is the first meeting between the teams this year. The Thunder have won the last four and covered the last six. They’re also 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in Atlanta overall.

Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
7:00 p.m. (ET) on NBA-TV

Milwaukee (14-21 SU and ATS) has that game in Atlanta on Friday and is just 3-9 ATS in back-to-back situations this year. Drew Gooden has been starting at center for the injured Andrew Bogut and that’s a big mismatch against Dwight Howard. There’s also not a lot of size off the bench, especially with Luc Mbah a Moute (shoulder) questionable Friday.

Orlando (23-14 SU, 20-17 ATS) is 0-2 ATS since the All-Star break, a 102-95 win at Washington as 8½-point favorites and 105-102 home loss to Oklahoma City as 1-point ‘dogs. Howard has management jumping through hoops to make personnel moves to keep him around. Team focus could be a big issue up to the March 15 deadline.

These teams met three times in February with the Magic going 3-0 SU and ATS. The one in Orlando was a 94-85 margin as 7½-point favorites.

Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Hornets
8:00 p.m. (ET) on Regional Broadcasts

The Pacers (22-12 SU, 16-18 ATS) are well rested with just one game in the second half, a 102-78 home win over Golden State on Tuesday. They’ve now won 5-straight games (3-2 ATS), including a 117-108 OT home win over New Orleans on February 21. The Hornets did cover as 10½-point underdogs.

The Hornets (8-27 SU, 17-18 ATS) have a tough home game with Dallas on Friday before this one. They had a 7-game cover streak snapped Wednesday versus Toronto, a 95-84 home loss to Toronto as 3-point favorites. Inside help is needed and could be on the way with Carl Landry (knee) questionable for Friday.

New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in the last five games versus Indiana, also winning the last two years (108-96, 107-101) outright in the Bayou.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers
10:00 p.m. (ET) on NBA-TV

The Timberwolves (18-19 SU, 20-17 ATS) are happy to have Friday off after three games in three nights beginning Tuesday at the Clippers (109-97 win). The last two were solids defeats at the Lakers (104-85) and Phoenix (104-95). The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games and is 9-3 in Minnesota’s last 12 overall on the road.

The Trail Blazers (18-18 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) are 0-2 SU and ATS to start the second half, losses at Denver (104-95) and home to Miami (107-93). Portland couldn’t take advantage of Heat power forward Chris Bosh being out, and is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven home games after starting 11-1 SU and 10-1-1 ATS there.

This is the first meeting this year. Minnesota has lost an incredible 16 straight to Portland and 11 in a row at Rose Garden (3-8 ATS).

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 06:18 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 3

West Virginia is 3-7 in its last ten games, losing four of last six on road; they're 2-2 as Big East road underdog, but won 10 of last 12 games vs teams ranked below #50. #62 South Florida won six of last seven games with only loss by 8 at Syracuse; Bulls held last eight opponents to 51 or less points- they've won their last seven home games, but are 2-3 as Big East home favorite. Big East home teams are 19-20 vs spread when the pointspread is 3 or less points.

Marquette had its five-game win streak snapped at Cincinnati last game; they're 11-2 in last 13 games, covering four of last five games as a home favorite, with home wins by 4-19-5-11-20-7-17-7 points. Georgetown won four of its last five games, with all four wins by 10+ points, but they've lost three of last four road games, are 1-2 as Big East road dog. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 14-17 against the spread. Hoyas are #2 in country defending 3-pointers (27.8%).

Syracuse (-2) won 52-51 brickfest at Louisville Feb 13, with both sides shooting less than 35%- Orange star Jardine was 0-8, but Syracuse had +8 turnover margin (+8). Orange still haven't lost with Melo in middle; they're 3-5 vs spread as Big East home favorite, failing to cover last four games overall. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 19-15-1 against the spread. Louisville is 2-3 in its last five games, but they covered four of last five games as an underdog.

UCLA (+3.5) lost 71-69 at Washington Feb 2, in game they led 65-55 at 5:47 mark; Smith had 24 points in 26 minutes off bench for Bruins, who are 6-2 as Pac-12 home favorite, winning home games by 7-17-27-17-11-10-32 points, with loss to Cal. Pac-12 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-13 vs the spread. Huskies won five in row and 10 of last 11 games; they've won five of last six road games, and are 4-2 against spread as an underdog this season.

Iowa State is 11-6 in Big X; their worst loss was 79-64 (+8.5) at Baylor Feb 13, when hosts shot 60% from floor in game where Bears bounced back from losing the two games before. Cyclones covered 10 of their last 12 games; they're 3-1 as Big X home favorite, winning home games by 6-3-8-2-23-11-18 points, with loss to Missouri. Big X home favorites of 4 or less points are 7-5 against the spread. Baylor won its last three games and is 6-2 on Big X road, losing at Kansas/Mizzou.

TCU (+12) lost 83-73 at San Diego State Feb 4, despite making 12-24 from arc; Aztecs shot 51% from floor, had 14 offensive boards. Horned Frogs are 6-0 at home in conference, despite being underdog in last four home games- they're 7-3 as MWC underdog. MWC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 6-5 against the spread. San Diego State won last three games by by 9-8-13 points; their win at Boise Wednesday ended their three-game road losing streak.

Long Beach State is trying to finish conference play undefeated; they're 4-3 as road favorites, winning Big West road games by 14-13-9-23-7-8-20 points. Fullerton won eight of last nine games since 75-61 loss (+13) Jan 28 at Long Beach, turning ball over 21 times in a game they were outscored 14-4 from foul line, despite 49ers making 14-25 at charity stripe. Titans are 7-0 at home in Big West; they're 1-2 as a conference dog. Big West home underdogs of 6 or less points are 5-7 against spread.

Colorado State is 7-0 at home in MWC, 0-6 on road; they're on bubble for NCAA bid; they have to win this game to stay there- hard to make case for at-large bid if you lose to Air Force in March. Falcons (+8) lost 67-49 in Fort Collins Feb 4, making 3-14 from arc, 12-23 on foul line. Rams had emotional home win Wednesday, rallying from 15 down at the half to upset UNLV on Senior Night. Air Force lost its last three games by 3-10-30 points; they're 2-2 as MWC home underdog.

Duke came back from down 10 with 2:20 left to stun North Carolina in first meeting 85-84 (+6) in Chapel Hill, their fifth win in last six series games; Duke was 14-36 on arc, 13-26 inside it, 17-26 on foul line- they are just 1-6 vs spread at home in ACC play, losing to Florida St/Miami and they were down 20 to NC State before rallying. Tar Heels lost last two visits here, after winning previous four. Neither team has lost since first meeting. Winner here takes ACC regular season title.

CAA tournament
George Mason (-4.5) beat Georgia State 61-58 in only meeting Jan 7, as Patriots were +10 on boards in game that ended Panthers' 11-game win streak. Both teams shot under 40% in game. State played last night but was up 21 at half, so none of its guys played more than 28:00- they've won seven of last nine games overall. Mason lost last two games after an 11-1 run- they're 9-4 in this event last five years. Before last night, last five Georgia State games had been decided by 5 or less points.

WCC tournament
BYU had struggle to beat San Diego 73-68 last night, game that was tied at half'; still, only one Cougar played more than 28:00. Home side won both series games this year; BYU won by 10 in Provo Feb 2, lost by 11 in Spokane nine days ago. BYU won seven of last eight games, is 9-5 in conference tourneys last 5+ years; Gonzaga is 15-3 in WCC tourney the last nine years, 9-0 in its first tourney game. Zags won six of last seven games, with only loss by point at red-hot San Francisco.

San Francisco is 10-4 in its last 14 games, they're playing for third night in row, St Mary's is playing first game this week. Dons had easy win on Thursday but had fierce struggle last night, playing three guys 34:00+, and only six guys more than 5:00. Unsure of Holt's status; he is Gaels' defensive stopper; over last nine WCC tourneys, St Mary's is 8-1 in its first tourney game. St Mary's beat USF twice this season, 87-72 at home in first meeting Jan 9, then 67-60 at home last Saturday.

Ohio Valley tournament
Murray State is now 50-7 in last 57 OVC games, but they lost at home to Tennessee State 72-68 Feb 9, loss that seemed to relax Racers little, as they won rematch 80-62 two weeks later. Murray won/covered last six games since that loss. Tennessee State won 10 of its last 11 games, with only loss to Murray. Racers had relatively easy win last night; State had tougher time beating Morehead State. Murray won this tourney three of last eight years. State is 3-8 in this tourney last eight years.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 06:19 PM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 3

Hot Teams
-- Orlando won/covered three of last four home games.
-- Thunder won last even games, covered last four.
-- Memphis won seven of its last eight games. Pistons covered six of last eight games, four of last five on road.
-- Pacers won last five games, last four by 9+ points. New Orleans has covered eight of last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost eight of last ten games, covered three of four on road.
-- Washington lost its last six games; they're 2-4 as a home favorite this season. Cavaliers lost last three road games, by 8-16-17 points.
-- Hawks lost six of their last nine games.
-- Dallas lost its last four games, scoring 92 or less in all four. Jazz lost its last five road games (1-4 vs spread).
-- Minnesota lost last two games, covered one of last four. Portland lost five of its last seven home games.

Back-to-Back
-- Bucks are 3-8-1 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Cavaliers are 1-3 vs spread on road if they played night before.
-- Hawks are 5-0 vs spread at home if they played night before.
-- Grizzlies are 6-3 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Hornets are 5-4 vs spread if they played night before, 1-0 at home.
-- Jazz is 5-8 vs spread if they played night before; Dallas is 4-2 vs spread at home if they played night before.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Bucks: 4th game/5 nites. Magic: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Cavaliers: 4th game/5 nites. Wizards: Had last two nites off.
-- Thunder: 3rd game/4 nites. Hawks: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Pistons: Had last two nites off. Grizzlies: 3rd game/4 nites.
-- Pacers: Had last three nites off. Hornets: 4th game/5 nites.
-- Jazz: 4th game/5 nites. Mavericks: 4th game/5 nites.
-- T'wolves: 4th game/5 nites. Blazers: 3rd game/4 nites.

Totals
-- Over is 7-3 in Milwaukee's last ten road games.
-- Six of last eight Cleveland road games went over the total.
-- Thunder's last three road games stayed under the total.
-- Last seven Detroit road games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-3 in Indiana's last ten road games.
-- Five of last six Utah road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-3 in Minnesota's last eleven road games.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 06:20 PM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 3

Hot teams
-- Lightning won six of its last eight games.
-- Coyotes won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Penguins won last four games, allowing six goals. Colorado won four of its last five games.
-- Sabres won five of their last six games. Canucks won seven of their last eight home games.
-- St Louis won four of its last five games.

Cold teams
-- Bruins are 0-10 in game following their last ten wins. Islanders lost their last five road games, allowing 21 goals.
-- Montreal lost five of its last six games. Maple Leafs lost six in row, 10 of last 11 games, and fired their coach.
-- Carolina lost three of its last four games.
-- Florida lost four of its last five home games. Predators lost five of their last six road games.
-- Blue Jackets lost nine of their last 12 road games.
-- Sharks lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Anaheim lost its last two games, scoring one goal. Kings lost seven of their last ten games.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Islander games went over the total.
-- Last six Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Lightning games went over the total.
-- Last three Florida games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Columbus road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Pittsburgh road games.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Buffalo's last five games.
-- Blues' last three games in San Jose went over the total.
-- Last nine Anaheim games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Bruins won six of last seven games against the Islanders.
-- Road team won five of last six Toronto-Montreal games.
-- Lightning won four of last six visits to Carolina.
-- Home side won six of last seven Nashville-Florida games.
-- Coyotes won six of last eight games with Columbus.
-- Penguins won last two games with Colorado, 3-2/6-3.
-- Canucks lost 4-3 in OT at Buffalo in LY's meeting.
-- Blues are 3-0 against San Jose this year: 4-2/2-0/3-0.
-- Kings won three of last four games against Anaheim.

Back-to-Back
-- Tampa Bay is 3-4 when it played the night before.
-- Anaheim is 2-3 when it lost the night before.

**StarDust Bum** · 03-03-2012, 06:33 PM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Saturday, March 3

GEORGETOWN is 9-0 ATS off a double digit home win (vs Marquette)

AUBURN is 12-1 ATS off BB conference losses (vs LSU)

IOWA STATE is 21-3 ATS as home favorite of 3 pts or less (vs Baylor)

LEHIGH is 9-0 ATS off double digit win (vs American)

FRESNO ST is 11-1 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of last 6 games (vs New Mexico St)

MINNESOTA is 1-11 ATS after scoring 65 pts or less BB games (vs Nebraska)

BOISE ST is 1-11 ATS vs. a team w/ win pct of .600 to .800 (vs New Mexico)

TENNESSEE is 8-0 ATS if road dog last game (vs Vanderbilt)

USC is 2-13 ATS in home games (vs. Washington State)

Announcement

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The Bum's Saturday's Best Bets + 4 CONFERENCE POD'S & NBA GOM !

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