The Bum's Thursday's NCAAB-NBA-NHL Best Bets !

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NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 1

Illinois (+5.5) lost 70-61 at Michigan Feb 12, as Leonard scored only 5 points in game where Wolverines shot 50%. Senior Day for Illini team that underachieved to point that Weber could get fired- they're 2-9 last 11 games, snapping 6-game skid Sunday. Big Dozen home favorites of 3 or less points are 2-9 against the spread this season. Michigan won four of its last five games; they're 3-5 on Big Dozen road, winning last away game by 12 in OT at Northwestern.

Virginia (+5) lost 58-55 at Florida State Feb 4, turning ball over 20 times with star Scott hacing 7 of them; Cavaliers are 5-2 at home in ACC, but 2-4 as home fave, winning home games by 1-17-4-24-27 points. Virginia lost its last game at home by 3 to North Carolina. Seminoles are 4-1 vs spread as ACC underdog, 3-0 on road; they've won four of last five on foreign soil, but road losses are at Clemson/BC. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 6-11 against the spread.

Oregon (+6) lost 72-71 at Colorado Feb 4, making 10-17 from foul line, while host Buffaloes were 23-30; Ducks covered last seven games, won four of last five SU- they're 2-2 as Pac-12 home favorite winning home games by 11-3-7-25-9 points (5-2 SU). Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 11-16 against the spread. Colorado won three of its last four games; they're 2-3 as Pac-12 road underdog, losing road games by 7-20-17-14, with wins at doormats USC/Arizona State/Utah.

Rutgers snapped 6-game skid Saturday with OT win over Seton Hall in rivalry game; Scarlet Knights are 1-2 as Big East favorite this year, with home wins by 7-7-7 points (3-4 SU). Villanova lost seven of last eight games (0-8 vs spread); they're 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-4-4-10-9-14-21 points. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 14-15 against the spread. Things are so bad for Villanova they lost a starter to injury in pre-game warmups at Georgetown Sunday.

USC (+12) got hammered 69-41 at Washington Feb 4, in game that was 29-19 at half; Trojans shot 1-16 from arc, 6-13 on foul line in a brickfest where teams combined to go 3-30 from arc. USC is 3-8-1 as underdog in league play, 0-3 at home, losing home games by 9-11-19-24-26-12, but Huskies' guard play is so erratic that they're poor risk on road (1-4 as a Pac-12 road favorite), though they won last two road games, at OSU and Wazzu. Pac-12 single digit home underdogs are 11-9 against spread.

Cal-Santa Barbara (-4.5) won 56-53 at Pacific Jan 28, in brickfest where neither team shot better than 33.3%; Gauchos led that first meeting by 10 at half, then held on. UCSB won four of last five games; they're 2-3 as Big West home favorite, winning home games by 13-18-8-8-8 points, with lone loss to Long Beach. Big West double digit home favorites are 8-10 against the spread. Pacific is 5-0 vs spread as road underdog, with road losses by 5-10-9 points (3-3 SU).

UCLA (-2) won 63-60 at Washington State Feb 4, holding Cougars to 37.7% from floor in game Wazzu led by 5 at half. Bruins are 2-3 in last five games; they're 5-2 as Pac-12 home favorite, winning home games by 7-17-27-17-11-10 points, with lone loss to Cal. Cougars lost six of last nine games; they're 1-4 as Pac-12 road underdog, losing away games by 2-11-10-24-4-9 points, with lone win at Oregon State. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 11-7 against the spread.

Fresno State (+2) lost 59-58 at Louisiana Tech Jan 26, in game Tech led by 8 at half; State used only seven players in game. Fresno lost three in a row by 8-4-3 points, with losses in double/triple OT- they're 2-2 as fave in WAC home games, winning at home by 9-10-6 points, with losses to Hawai'i/Nevada. Tech is 3-2 as WAC road underdog, losing last three on road by 11-14-9 points. WAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-9 against the spread this season.

Nevada (+4.5) won 68-60 at New Mexico State Jan 26, shooting 56.5% in game they led by 14 at half. Aggies shot only 32.7% but outscored Wolf Pack 21-9 on foul line. WAC home teams are 5-7 vs spread when number is 4 or less points. State won six of its last seven games; they're 3-2 SU on WAC road, losing by 4 at Hawai'i, 1 at Idaho. Nevada is 2-3 as WAC home favorite, winning home games by 24-3-13-1 point, with a loss to Idaho. Wolf Pack won last game in triple OT at Fresno.

WCC tournament
Pepperdine lost twice to San Diego this season, 65-56 (+4.5) at USD Jan 26, then 70-57 (-2) at home three weeks ago. Waves won last couple of games, but against Portland/Santa Clara, two worst teams in WCC; they won a game in this tourney three of last four years, and 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven games overall as an underdog. Toreros are 4-3 in last seven games, with underdogs covering six of the seven; USD won at least one games in this tournament six of the last seven years.

Portland played last night, San Francisco didn't; Pilots used three guys for 31+ minutes, but shot 57% from floor, 8-16 from arc in its win over Santa Clara. Portland lost to Dons twice this season, losing 68-58 (+2.5) at USF Jan 12, then 72-71 (+4) at home nine days later. Pilots' win last night snapped 6-game skid; they're 2-4 vs spread in last six games as an underdog. Dons are 8-4 in last dozen games, covering last four games as a favorite; they're 2-6 SU in this tournament the last six years.

Missouri Valley tournament
Home side won both Southern Illinois-Indiana State games this year, as Salukis (-7) won 73-67 in Carbondale Jan 13, then lost in Terre Haute by 10 (78-68, +8) in rematch Feb 11. Sycamores won this tournament LY, are 5-0 last five times they played in this round, with three wins by 4 or less points. Salukis lost by a hoop in this tourney each of last two years. State covered three of last four tries as a favorite. SIU lost its last five games, 0-4 vs spread in last four, losing by 10-19-15-4 points.

Bradley lost to Drake twice this year, 82-74 (+9.5) in Des Moines Jan 10, then 62-55 (+2) at home Feb 15; Braves are terrible this year, losing last five games and 11 of last 12, but they did cover four of last five as an underdog. Bradley hasn't scored more than 55 points in any of its last five games. Drake won three of last five games; they lost in this round in last three MVC tourneys, losing by 7-15-15 points. Bradley won game in Arch Madness in five of last six seasons.

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NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 1

Hot teams
-- Bruins are 12-2 in game following their last 14 losses.
-- Rangers won seven of their last ten games. Carolina won six of its last nine home games.
-- Panthers won their last four road games.
-- Avalanche won its last four games, allowing five goals.
-- Coyotes won their last six games, allowing 10 goals.
-- Blues won last four games, allowing seven goals. Canucks won six of their last seven home games.
-- San Jose won seven of its last nine home games. Sabres won four of their last five games.

Cold teams
-- Montreal lost five in row, seven of last eight games. Minnesota lost four of its last five road games.
-- Philly lost seven of its last ten home games. Islanders lost four of their last five road games.
-- New Jersey lost its last three games, scoring four goals.
-- Winnipeg lost its last two games at home, 3-2/5-3.
-- Blue Jackets lost five of their last six games.
-- Calgary lost its last four games, outscored 18-9.

Totals
-- Under is 4-0-2 in last six Monnesota road games.
-- Under is 8-3 in Islanders' last eleven road games.
-- Under is 7-3 in New Jersey's last ten road games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers' last five games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Winnipeg games.
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven Colorado games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Calgary road games.
-- Under is 3-1-1 in Vancouver's last five games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Buffalo games.

Series records
-- Canadiens won 8-1 at Minnesota in LY's meeting.
-- Islanders won last two games vs Philly, after losing previous eight.
-- Bruins won seven of last eight games with New Jersey.
-- Rangers won four of last five games with Carolina.
-- Panthers won their last three games against Winnipeg.
-- Avalanche won nine of last ten games against Columbus.
-- Coyotes won their last six games with Calgary.
-- Blues are 3-2 in last five visits to Vancouver.
-- Sabres beat San Jose twice LY, 6-3/3-0.

Back-to-Back
-- Blues are 2-5 if they won the night before.
-- Sabres are 4-12 when they played the night before.

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 1

Hot Teams
-- Thunder won last six games, is 8-3-1 in last dozen games as a road favorite. Orlando won and covered four of last five home games.
-- Minnesota covered six of last eight games as a road underdog.
-- Sacramento won/covered four of its last five games.
-- Miami won its last eight games (7-1 vs spread).

Cold Teams
-- Suns lost five of their last seven games.
-- Clippers lost three of their last four games.
-- Portland lost seven of its last eleven games.

Back-to-Back
-- Oklahoma City is 2-4-1 vs spread on road if it played night before. Orlando is 3-4 vs spread if it won night before.
-- Minnesota is 5-3 vs spread on road if it played night before; dogs are 8-7 vs spread if playing for third night in row.
-- Portland is 3-2 vs spread at home if it played night before.

Wear-and-Tear
-- Thunder: 2nd nite in row. Magic: 2nd nite in row.
-- T'wolves: 3rd nite in row. Suns: 1st game in eight nites.
-- Clippers: 2nd game/3 nites. Kings: 2nd game/3 nites.
-- Heat: 1st game in a week. Trailblazers: 2nd nite in row.

Totals
-- Thunder's last three road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-3 in Minnesota's last eleven road games.
-- Three of last four Clipper games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Portland home games went over total.

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NCAAB
Short Sheet

Thursday's Top College Basketball Trends

USC is 0-11 ATS off a road game (vs Washington)

CAL POLY-SLO is 1-12 ATS off a road game (vs Cal Davis)

PACIFIC is 10-1 ATS playing w/ revenge (vs UC Santa Barbara)

MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS off a loss (vs Illinois)

VIRGINIA TECH is 2-12 ATS off an Under (vs Clemson)

INDIANA STATE is 9-0 ATS after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers (vs S ILLINOIS)

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Huskies need weekend sweep for Pac-12

March 1, 2012


SEATTLE (AP) - Four seasons ago, it all played out so perfectly when Washington claimed its first outright regular season conference title in more than 50 years.

The Huskies were home, against rival Washington State no less, and honoring one of their greatest players when Jon Brockman was feted on senior day. The 67-60 win that afternoon, the ensuing storming of the court and the nets being cut down in a sea of purple still rate as Lorenzo Romar's top moment since becoming the Huskies coach in 2002.

``In terms of sitting back looking at what had been accomplished, I think that would have to be No. 1,'' Romar said.

The Huskies could be celebrating again this weekend. A sweep in Los Angeles of USC and UCLA would give the Huskies (20-8, 13-3 Pac-12) the Pac-12 Conference regular -season title outright. They only need a split to claim a share of the conference crown with California after the Golden Bears stumbled last Sunday at Colorado and fell out of a tie with the Huskies.

And while it may come in a year when the computers give the Pac-12 a failing grade for quality in comparison with its recent past and the rest of the country, it'll still be a cherished and watershed moment for the Huskies should they knock off the Trojans and Bruins.

Washington has reached 20 wins for four straight years for the first time in school history. Now the Huskies have a chance at four straight years with either a regular-season or conference tournament title.

``You always want to live in the moment and this is our moment now,'' said Darnell Gant, Washington's lone senior starter. ``I feel like if we go down and handle our business against SC it's going to be a great feeling. It'll feel great in the locker room, but we want to be greedy. We want to take it all for ourselves. We don't want any slip ups this week.''

What separates the accomplishments of 2009 from the roll these Huskies are currently riding is the youth Washington is relying on to potentially claim its second outright title since 1953. While Brockman was joined by senior guard Justin Dentmon, junior forward Quincy Pondexter and complemented by freshman Isaiah Thomas in 2009, Romar's club this year has leaned heavily on sophomore Terrence Ross and freshman Tony Wroten.

Ross and Wroten are both candidates for conference player entering the final week, with Wroten leading the way at 16.7 points and Ross averaging 15.1.

Romar's name is getting tossed about as the conference coach of the year because of his success in getting his young players to contribute quickly and the Huskies' rebound from a miserable nonconference slate during which they were 7-5 with no impressive victories.

``He's done a great job of taking the younger guys and being patient with them but still making sure we get a lot done,'' Gant said.

Before the Los Angeles trip even begins, Romar believes the Huskies' resume is strong enough to warrant an NCAA tournament bid. While he has that confidence, his players don't intend to take any chances in a year when the conference might get anywhere from one to four bids and only the winner of the conference tournament is certain to make the NCAAs.

But there is history on the Huskies' side. The last time a regular-season champion - or co-champ - of the conference failed to make the NCAA tournament was 1958, when Oregon State shared the regular-season title of the Pacific Coast Conference with California after each finished the conference season with 12-4 marks. The Golden Bears received the NCAA bid thanks to a one-game playoff victory over the Beavers.

``I think we are good enough defensively to compete in the NCAA tournament,'' Romar said. ``I think if and when we begin to get everyone healthy and hit on all cylinders offensively, I think we can be dangerous offensively. And you put those two together and you have a chance to be competitive with anyone.''

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Wichita State looks to stay on roll in MVC

March 1, 2012


No matter what happens at the Missouri Valley tournament, 15th-ranked Wichita State knows its name will be called when NCAA tournament bids are announced a week from Sunday.

Wins in 16 of its last 17 games allowed the Shockers to win the regular-season championship by two games over Creighton and make a strong claim on at least an at-large NCAA bid.

Coach Gregg Marshall doesn't want to let a good thing end in St. Louis.

``We're going there to win the tournament,'' Marshall said. ``Our guys, without being over the top, have been solid in their resolve and approach and haven't gotten too high or too low. This is just the next challenge and obstacle in our way. We're looking forward to the opportunity to go to St. Louis and be the first Shocker team to come out of there with a victory.''

Wichita State won the tournament in 1985 and `87, but not since the event moved to St. Louis in 1991.

The tournament opens Thursday with Indiana State (17-13) matched against Southern Illinois (8-22) and Drake (16-14) against Bradley (7-24). Friday's games pit Wichita State (26-4) against the Indiana State-Southern Illinois winner, Illinois State (18-12) against Northern Iowa (19-12), 25th-ranked Creighton (25-5) against either Drake or Bradley and Evansville (15-14) against Missouri State (16-15).

Semifinals are Saturday and the championship game is on Sunday.

``The way Wichita has entered the tournament, they're playing as well as anybody in the league and maybe as well as anybody in the country right now,'' Creighton coach Greg McDermott said. ``Someone is going to have to slow that train down somehow.''

Second-seeded Creighton, like Wichita State, also is on track for an NCAA at-large bid if it doesn't win the MVC's automatic berth. The Valley has received only one bid four straight years but could get as many as three if a team other than Creighton or Wichita State wins the title.

The top-seeded team has won the tournament 13 times in 35 tournaments, but it has happened only six times in the 20-year history in St. Louis.

The Shockers' appearances at the Valley tournament have been, to say the least, eventful in Marshall's time at the school.

He was ejected from a first-round loss in 2008 after getting called for a second technical foul. The next year, the Shockers started celebrating an apparent quarterfinals upset of Creighton when officials put 1.9 seconds back on the clock. They ended up losing on a buzzer-beater. Marshall complained afterward that the clock didn't start immediately when the ball was inbounded.

Wichita State squandered a second-half lead and lost to Northern Iowa in the championship game in 2010. Last year, the Shockers lost to eventual champion Indiana State in the semifinals before going on to win the NIT.

One team that would like to get another shot at the Shockers is Creighton.

``Absolutely. I wouldn't want it any other way,'' said sophomore forward Doug McDermott, the Valley player of the year.

The Bluejays won 68-61 at Wichita State on New Year's Eve, but were embarrassed in an 89-68 loss in Omaha, Neb., three weeks ago. Creighton has won four straight since then - the last three by a total of four points.

``I want Wichita in the finals,'' senior point guard Antoine Young said. ``It's Wichita. I don't think Creighton likes Wichita very well. I respect Wichita. I don't like Wichita.''

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Thursday

March 1, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The League is 9-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since February 26, 2008 on the road after a home loss in which they attempted at least 10 fewer three pointers than their season-to-date average. Active on LA Clippers.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Heat are 10-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since November 05, 2010 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Magic are 0-8 OU (-10.0 ppg) since May 14, 2009 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Dwight Howard had more rebounds than points.

CHOICE TREND:

The Kings are 9-0 OU (19.3 ppg) since January 16, 2009 at home after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Trailblazers are 8-0 OU (14.4 ppg) since February 19, 2008 off a road loss in which they never led.

The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 29, 2010 when facing a non-conference team they beat as a favorite in their first match-up of the season.

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Heat end long layoff Thursday in Portland


MIAMI HEAT (27-7)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (18-17)


Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -4½, Total: 196

The Heat finally get the second half of their season underway when they visit Portland on Thursday night.

Miami finished up the first half on an absolute tear, winning eight in a row SU (7-1 ATS), all of them by 12 points or more. But the Rose Garden is one of the NBA’s toughest places to play, as Portland is 13-5 SU (12-6 ATS) at home this season, and the Blazers pushed the Heat to overtime at home a little more than a year ago. Can the Heat start out the second half of the season with a big victory? For the answer, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass continues its impressive string, going 23-13 ATS (64%) since Feb. 13.

The Heat spent the first half of the season dominating on both ends of the floor, holding opponents to 94.4 PPG despite their up-tempo style, and allowing 42.3% FG while forcing 16.9 turnovers per game. Offensively, SF LeBron James (27.4 PPG on 54.7% FG, 8.1 RPG, 6.8 APG) and SG Dwyane Wade (22.4 PPG on 50.2% FG) have been unstoppable during their recent win streak. James has averaged 23.8 PPG on 55.2% FG, 7.6 RPG and 6.8 APG over the past eight contests, while Wade has added 23.3 PPG on 56.6% FG. The duo lit it up in Miami’s visit to Portland last year, with James going for 44 points on 17-for-26 shooting and Wade adding 33 on 15-for-22 shooting in a 107-100 overtime win. James has topped 40 in each of his past two games at the Rose Garden.

Additionally, Chris Bosh (18.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG) showed signs of breaking out of a slump just before the break, going for 22.5 PPG on 58.1% shooting in the final two games. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that further backs the Heat:

Play On - Road favorites (MIAMI) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with a winning record on the season. (62-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Blazers did not look sharp in Wednesday’s road loss to a Nuggets team playing without its two best players (Nene and Danilo Gallinari). Portland allowed 100 points for the second time in three games (holding the Spurs to 97 because San Antonio was playing without its three best players). All-Star PF LaMarcus Aldridge (22.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) is still trying to find his way since returning from an ankle injury two weeks ago. In four games, he’s averaging 19.5 PPG while shooting just 43.9% from the field (a number boosted by his 8-for-12 night against the Spurs’ B-team).

SG Jamal Crawford (14.4 PPG) has moved into the starting lineup in place of PG Raymond Felton (10.1 PPG, 6.2 APG). Crawford is capable of putting up big numbers, and he’s averaged 20.5 PPG on 60.9% FG (10-of-16 threes) since joining up with the starters. But Portland might be sacrificing chemistry with Crawford trying to initiate the offense.

Defensively, the Heat’s one Achilles heel has been guarding the three-point line. That bodes well for Crawford and SG Nicolas Batum (13.7 PPG), who’s in the NBA’s top 20 in three-point percentage (42.1%) and three-pointers made (59). Since moving into the starting lineup in mid-February, Batum is averaging 19.6 PPG while hitting 49.5% of his field goals and 44.7% of his threes. This three-star FoxSheets trend thinks the Blazers are the pick at home:

Play On - Home underdogs (PORTLAND) - in non-conference games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. (45-17 since 1996.) (72.6%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*).

[StarDust Bum]

Wolves cap back-to-back-to-back Thursday in Phoenix

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (18-18)

at PHOENIX SUNS (14-20)


Tip-off: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: Phoenix -4½, Total: 201

The Timberwolves play their third game in three nights when they visit a Suns team that hasn’t taken the court in eight days.

The Suns have won eight straight meetings with the Wolves, but they could be rusty after seven straight off days. The Timberwolves are 5-1 (SU and ATS) in their past six games with a healthy Kevin Love, who is expected to return after missing Wednesday's loss to the Lakers due to illness. Will the Timberwolves have enough energy to topple the well-rested Suns? For the answer, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass continues its impressive string, going 23-13 ATS (64%) since Feb. 13.

Minnesota looked lost at Staples Center Wednesday night without Love, as no Timberwolves player scored more than 14 points. However, in Tuesday’s impressive road win over the Clippers (109-97) in the same building, both Derrick Williams and Michael Beasley came off the bench to score 27 points apiece. The Suns may not have the size and depth to keep up with both of these players plus Love, who leads the NBA with 30 double-doubles. Love scored 23 points and grabbed 16 boards in his one game against Phoenix last year, a 128-122 defeat. A strained left groin kept him out of the other two meetings. The FoxSheets provide a three-star trend that urges bettors to take the Wolves:

PHOENIX is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 101.2, OPPONENT 111.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Phoenix averaged a whopping 123.7 PPG (53% FG, 48% 3-pt FG) in its three wins over Minnesota last season. But the Suns have not played great in Phoenix this year, going 7-9 (6-9-1 ATS). This includes a 106-104 loss to Golden State in their last game before the All-Star break. Although the team has just two wins in its past seven games (2-4-1 ATS), the offense has been efficient over the past five contests with 101.6 PPG on 47% FG. A key matchup in this game will be between the two dynamic point guards, veteran Steve Nash and Wolves flashy rookie Ricky Rubio. Nash certainly has the experience edge, but Rubio, mired in a 4-for-23 shooting slump in his past three games, is quicker and has 24 assists in these three contests. Nash leads the NBA with 10.9 APG, frequently feeding Marcin Gortat down low. Gortat is third in the league in shooting accuracy (56.1% FG) and has four straight 20-point games, making 62.1% of his shots during this run. He also has at least a dozen rebounds in five of his past seven games, averaging 12.1 RPG during this seven-game stretch. This strong FoxSheets coaching trend gives another reason for picking the Suns:

Alvin Gentry is 36-15 ATS (70.6%, +19.5 Units) when playing 4 or less games in 10 days as the coach of PHOENIX. The average score was PHOENIX 111.3, OPPONENT 104.4 - (Rating = 2*)

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Thunder seek first-ever win at Orlando Thursday


OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (28-7)

at ORLANDO MAGIC (23-13)


Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -1½, Total: 192½

Oklahoma City looks for the franchise’s first-ever win in Orlando when it takes on the Magic Thursday night.

The Thunder have lost seven in row (2-5 ATS) in Orlando, including the past four by 23, 14, 9 and 27 points. In last year's meeting at Amway Center (111-88 Magic win), Dwight Howard had 40 points and 15 boards, while Kevin Durant shot a woeful 7-of-22 from the floor. But the Thunder have won six straight games and are 44-24 ATS (65%) against Eastern Conference teams over the past three seasons. Can Oklahoma City finally win a game in Orlando? For the answer, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass continues its impressive string, going 23-13 ATS (64%) since Feb. 13.

Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant is playing as well as anybody in the NBA (27.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG), but he’s never enjoyed suiting up in central Florida. Durant has a lower scoring average in Orlando than he does in any other city. In four career games at Amway Center, Durant has scored only 15.3 PPG on an anemic 30.8% FG (3-of-14 threes). Durant also had an off-night in Wednesday’s 92-88 win at Philadelphia, making just 7-of-18 shots (23 points) and grabbing only four rebounds. Russell Westbrook (23.5 PPG, 5.5 APG) missed 13 shots (7-of-20 FG) and committed seven turnovers versus Philadelphia, but he also tallied 13 boards. Like Durant, Westbrook has not shot the ball well when facing the Magic in his career, scoring 17.6 PPG on just 37.7% FG in seven meetings. Despite the offensive struggles of their two best players, the Thunder played great defense in Philly, allowing just one field goal in the final 5:32. In the past nine games overall, Oklahoma City is allowing just 93.7 PPG on 41.4% FG. The FoxSheets provide a two-star trend that further backs the Thunder:

Play On - Road favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, second half of the season. (101-59 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.1%, +36.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Orlando was 11-4 (9-6 ATS) in its 15 February games, holding nine of these opponents to 90 points or less. Although the Magic failed to cover the spread in Wednesday’s 102-95 win in Washington, the offense was very efficient as seven players scored 11+ points. Ryan Anderson (16.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG) was the only Orlando player above 15, as he dumped in 23 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. Anderson’s shooting woes continued though with his fifth straight game of less than 43% from the floor, connecting on just 36.8% FG during this stretch. Anderson, who leads the NBA in three-pointers made (103) and attempted (238), had a team-high 25 points in a 97-89 season-opening loss at Oklahoma City. Dwight Howard notched his 29th double-double (2nd in NBA behind Kevin Love’s 30) on Wednesday with 14 points and 12 rebounds. Despite the ongoing trade rumors involving Howard, he has been able to post a season-high run of seven straight double-doubles (18.4 PPG, 15.1 RPG). This strong FoxSheets trend gives another reason for fading the Thunder:

Play Against - Road teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. (27-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +18.2 units. Rating = 2*).

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No. 13 Michigan seeks rare win in Champaign Thursday


MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (21-8, 11-5 Big Ten)

at ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (17-12, 6-10 Big Ten)


Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Illinois -1½, Total: 121½

No. 13 Michigan looks to move into a tie for second place in the Big Ten with arch rival Ohio State when it heads to Illinois for Senior Night in Champaign on Thursday.

Michigan is 3-0 ATS in the past three meetings with Illinois, holding the Fighting Illini to 56.7 PPG in the three contests. But the Wolverines have lost 13 consecutive games at Assembly Hall. Who will prevail in this key Big Ten matchup? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekday 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack was a stellar 9-3 ATS (75%) last week.

The Wolverines rely heavily on the offensive contributions of the young backcourt tandem of sophomore Tim Hardaway, Jr. (14.1 PPG) and sensational freshman Trey Burke (14.2 PPG, 4.8 APG). Michigan needs to jump out to a fast start to shake off any leftover disappointment from its first home loss of the season Saturday versus Purdue. Michigan’s loss was simply due to poor shooting (41.7% FG, 9-of- 32 threes), but the Boilers shot 50% FG, 47% 3-pt FG and 14-of-16 FT in the upset. The Illini will have a big advantage inside with 7-foot-1 sophomore center Meyers Leonard, so it will be important for Michigan’s outside shooters to regain their form. The ability of Zack Novak (41.2% 3-pt FG) and Evan Smotrycz (41.3% 3-pt FG) to light it up from the outside can help exploit Illinois’ perimeter defense, and considering how the season has gone for the Illini, it won’t take much to rattle their confidence. This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Wolverines.

MICHIGAN is 11-1 ATS (91.7%, +9.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MICHIGAN 60.5, OPPONENT 60.5 - (Rating = 4*).

For all of Illinois’ struggles this season, Bruce Weber’s squad has found a way to kick it into another gear against elite teams. The Illini are 3-0 at home against ranked schools, including wins over top-10 opponents Ohio State (79-74) and Michigan State (42-41). Illinois needs another big game down low from Leonard (13.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG), who scored 22 points and grabbed 14 rebounds in the 65-54 win over Iowa on Sunday. Electric guard Brandon Paul (14.8 PPG) also had a big game, scoring 17 points on 5-for-9 shooting. Paul is a different player at home, averaging 19.0 PPG in his past four games at Assembly Hall. Both Paul and fellow guard D.J. Richardson (12.1 PPG) will have their hands full with Michigan’s lethal defense, which has allowed just 57.3 PPG in its past four road games. This strong FoxSheets trend also sides with the Illini.

Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (ILLINOIS) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. (93-50 since 1997.) (65%, +38 units. Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

No. 1 UK looks to cover huge spread vs. UGA


GEORGIA BULLDOGS (13-15)

at KENTUCKY WILDCATS (28-1)


Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kentucky -19½, Total: 127½

In what could be the final night playing in Rupp Arena for a number of these Kentucky players, the No. 1 Wildcats will play host to the Georgia Bulldogs as SEC regular season action is winding down.

Especially because the Bulldogs usually play low-scoring games, it will be very tough for the ‘Cats to cover this enormous spread. Georgia is coming off a 14-point trouncing of Florida and has allowed just 61.3 PPG during a 4-2 ATS stretch. But Kentucky is 17-0 at Rupp Arena, outscoring these opponents by 21.7 PPG. Can the Wildcats win by 20 points over the Bulldogs on Thursday? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekday 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack was a stellar 9-3 ATS (75%) last week.

Georgia’s offense is less prolific than Kentucky’s, but it’s that slow pace of play that gives opponents fits. UGA held UK to a season-low 57 points on Jan. 24 despite the Wildcats shooting an adequate 44% FG and 44% on its three-pointers. Gerald Robinson (14.3 PPG) leads the team in scoring and even though he is averaging just 0.7 threes per game on the season, he has registered from deep in eight consecutive games. His passing has the ability to open up the UGA offense, dishing seven dimes in the upset against Florida. Freshman guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (13.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.2 3PG) is coming off a strong 18-point performance (8-of-13 FG) in that upset, and leading the lockdown Bulldogs defense with four steals. The player with the most potential to step up in this game is 6-foot-9 forward Donte Williams (7.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG). He leads the team in both rebounding and blocks, and to keep this game close, he’ll have to put up a strong fight on the boards. This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Bulldogs.

Play Against - Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (KENTUCKY) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against a horrible offensive team (<=63 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more. (28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*).

There may be controversy brewing as to who stays on this Kentucky team for next year, but there is no doubting the team’s deep talent. Led by Anthony Davis (14.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 4.8 BPG) on both the offensive and defensive ends, the Wildcats have a strong post attack and refuse to yield easy baskets in the paint. Davis is coming off arguably his best performance of the season against Vanderbilt, making 10-of-11 shots for 28 points, while also notching 11 rebounds and five blocks. He also takes care of the ball incredibly well, with just 0.6 turnovers per game in the team’s past 14 contests. Fellow forwards Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG) and Terrence Jones (12.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) are also strong scorers and rebounders while averaging more than a block per game. Doron Lamb (13.6 PPG, 1.9 3PG) is deadly from beyond the arc (48.3% 3-pt FG), while Marquis Teague rounds out the backcourt running the point (9.8 PPG, 4.8 APG). Darius Miller (9.9 PPG, 1.4 3PG) led the Wildcats off the bench in their last matchup against UGA, showing his skills from deep, hitting 4-of-4 treys in a game-high, 19-point effort. This FoxSheets trend leads bettors to pick against the Bulldogs.

GEORGIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season. The average score was GEORGIA 51.5, OPPONENT 68.2 - (Rating = 2*).

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB Best Bets:


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