Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 2/26 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 26

South Florida won its last six home games, allowing 58.2 ppg; Bulls are 3-2 as Big East favorite, 2-2 at home, but they're 0-6 vs teams ranked in top 40, with best win 56-55 over #42 Seton Hall. Cincinnati comes off a big home win over Louisville Thursday, its third straight win; Bearcats are 4-1 as Big East road underdog- they've allowed 59.7 ppg during their ongoing win streak. Big East home favorites of 3 or less points are 9-10 against the spread this season.

Louisville (+3.5) won 73-62 at Pitt Jan 21, game that made Panthers 0-7 in conference play; Pitt then won four in row, but has now lost last four games (0-4 vs spread), scoring just 53 ppg. Pitt is 3-1 as road underdog in league games, losing on road by 13-3-5-8-12-7 points. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in their Big East road games. Big East home favorites of 8+ points are 20-19-1 against the spread. Cardinals are 4-2 as home faves; their last four games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT.

Denver (-3) lost 75-74 at North Texas in OT Jan 21, as NBA prospect Mitchell went nuts (30 points, 17 boards) in first game after two North Texas guards were tossed off team. Mean Green is 7-1 vs spread as Sun Belt underdog, 5-1 on road, losing road games by 3-2-5 points (4-3 SU). Pioneers are 4-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 17-13-14-15-25-19. Denver hasn't played in eight days, while UNT won at Little Rock in OT Thursday; tough to prep for Princeton offense in 2-3 days.

Highlight of Minnesota's season is probably 77-74 win (+9.5) at Indiana Jan 12, when Gophers had 16 offensive rebounds, held Hoosiers to 4-18 from arc, but Minnesota has hit skids recently, losing last four games, scoring just 60.8 ppg. Big Dozen home teams are 9-11 against the spread when the number is 3 or less points. Indiana won three of their last four games; Hoosiers are 2-6 on Big Dozen road, with only wins at Purdue by 17, at Penn State by 6.

[Udog]

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 26

Hot teams
-- Penguins won eight of their last nine home games.
-- Dallas Stars won last three games, alowing two goals. Canucks won eight of their last ten road games.
-- Ottawa won four of its last five games. Islanders won six of their last nine road games.
-- Ducks won five of their last seven games.

Cold teams
-- Tampa Bay lost four of its last five road games. New Jersey lost four of its last five home games- visitor won seven of its last eight games.
-- Blue Jackets lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Florida lost its last four home games, scoring five goals. Canadiens lost five of their last six games.
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games. Sharks lost five of their last six.
-- Chicago lost 12 of its last 14 road games.

Totals
-- Five of last six Lightning road games went over the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Columbus road games. Five of Penguins' last seven games went over the total.
-- Under is 3-0-2 in last five Dallas games.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Montreal's last five road games.
-- Four of last five Islander games went over the total.
-- Three of last four Minnesota home games stayed under total.
-- Last six Anaheim games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Devils won 18 of last 21 games against Tampa Bay.
-- Road team won both Columbus-Pittsburgh games LY.
-- Canucks won nine of last ten games against Dallas.
-- Florida is 2-0 vs Montreal this season, winning 2-1/3-2.
-- Islanders lost eight of last eleven games against Ottawa.
-- Sharks lost their last three visits to Minnesota.
-- Blackhawks won four of last five games against Anaheim.

Back-to-Back
-- Tampa Bay is 1-4 on road if it played the night before.
-- Penguins are 3-1 at home if they played night before.
-- Florida is 3-5 if it played the night before, 1-2 if it won.
-- Ottawa is 2-3 at home if it played the night before.
-- Sharks are 5-4 if they played night before, 2-3 if they lost.
-- Chicago is 2-6 on the road if it played the night before.

[Udog]

NASCAR betting: Daytona 500 preview and picks

After a week filled with preliminary racing and practices, it’s time to get down to the business at hand: The 2012 NASCAR Sprint Cup season, which starts in earnest with the 54th running of the Daytona 500 Sunday.

The season’s biggest race is always filled with surprises, making it hard to pick a winner. After all, who would have guessed that a 20-year-old rookie, Trevor Bayne, would have won in his first try last year?

But the races of Speedweeks have laid the groundwork and some favorites have emerged. There are a couple of things that seem somewhat certain: Ford has been working hard behind the scenes and this year seem to be leading the pack, followed close behind by perennial favorites Chevy.

Toyota and Dodge have been catching up, but still seem to be searching for speed. Narrowing the field down to the Fords and Chevys, several teams have risen to the top. Daytona is unlike any other race of the season, so the best way to look at favorites is to look at the top two drivers behind the wheel for those respective car makers.

Roush-Fenway Racing is the cream of the crop so far. Carl Edwards took the pole last Sunday with his teammate Greg Biffle close behind in second. Barring disaster in the final practices, they’ll make up the front row Sunday. Both drivers looked strong in Thursday’s Gatorade Duel qualifying races, but it was Roush-Fenway driver Matt Kenseth who stole the show, passing Biffle on the last lap to win the second Duel.

In the Ford camp, among the Roush-Fenway drivers, Edwards and Kenseth are the top picks. After all, Edwards was second here last season and Kenseth won the Daytona 500 in 2009. Behind the scenes, in personal conversations with me, Edwards has voiced a confidence I haven't seen in some time. He feels good about his equipment and, so far this week, has backed that up. After finishing fifth in his Duel Thursday, Edwards’ confidence only grew.

"It was crazy,” Edwards told ***********. “We are going to have fun though. It is going to be a good race. I am glad we got through all this and we are starting on the pole. I got a ton of experience today.”

Among the Chevys, the biggest story of the Daytona 500 would be a win by fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt is winless in his last 129 races but has shown that he may be ready to win again this week. He led laps in the Bud Shootout, qualified third last Sunday (missing a spot on the front row by a few tenths of a second) and was second in Thursday’s first Duel. Earnhardt Jr. won the Daytona 500 in 2004 and seems to be on a mission to repeat that this Sunday.

While Earnhardt Jr. has a Daytona 500 win, the other Chevy favorite doesn’t. Tony Stewart has won everything but the 500 at Daytona. He has won three summer races here, three Shootouts and scored his third career Duel win Thursday. Stewart has his eyes on the big prize and could easily add a Daytona 500 victory to his resume.

Looking for a dark horse? Look no further than Marcos Ambrose. Ambrose, in a Ford, has been a quiet contender all week and could be a surprise winner Sunday.

Head-to-head

Kurt Busch vs. Kyle Busch: The brothers Busch have been strong this week, but neither has shown the endurance to seal the deal. Kyle could steal the show, like he did in Saturday night’s Shootout, beating Stewart to the line in the closest finish in the event’s history. But, just like how the Toyota’s have lagged behind this week, so has Kyle and his brother Kurt in a Chevy. However, look for Kyle to come out ahead in this matchup.

Jimmie Johnson vs. Jeff Gordon: Both Hendrick Motorsports drivers were favorites coming into the week, but neither has shined as expected. Each has won the Daytona 500 before, but Johnson seems to want to make a strong statement. He finished third in his Duel Thursday, while Gordon finished behind him in eighth. Expect a similar result Sunday.

Picks

Carl Edwards +1,200
Matt Kenseth +2,000
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1,000
Tony Stewart +900
Marcos Ambrose +1,200

[Udog]

NASCAR Live Odds

Daytona 500
Sunday, February 26, 2012

Driver Odds

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
Jeff Gordon 10-1
Kyle Busch 10-1
Tony Stewart 12-1
Jimmie Johnson 15-1
Jamie McMurray 15-1
Kasey Kahne 15-1
Carl Edwards 15-1
Brad Keselowski 18-1
Clint Bowyer 20-1
Denny Hamlin 20-1
A.J. Allmendinger 25-1
Matt Kenseth 25-1
Joey Lagano 25-1
Kurt Busch 25-1
Greg Biffle 25-1
Jeff Burton 30-1
Juan Montoya 35-1
Ryan Newman 35-1
Paul Menard 40-1
Martin Truex Jr. 40-1
Mark Martin 40-1
Marcos Ambrose 60-1
Danica Patrick 60-1
Regan Smith 75-1
Michael Waltrip 75-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 75-1
David Ragan 75-1
Trevor Bayne 75-1
Dave Blaney 100-1
Bobby Labonte 100-1
David Gilliland 100-1
Field ( Any Other Driver ) 30-1

[Udog]

NASCAR betting: Odds to win 2012 Sprint Cup Championship

The new NASCAR Sprint Cup Series gets underway this week at the Daytona International Raceway, with tuneup events heading into Sunday's Daytona 500. Now is the best time to find value in the Sprint Cup Championship futures odds, so start your engines and get betting:

Jimmie Johnson +500

Carl Edwards +650

Kyle Busch +850

Kevin Harvick +900

Tony Stewart +900

Denny Hamlin +900

Jeff Gordon +1000

Kasey Kahne +1200

Matt Kenseth +1400

Clint Bowyer +1400

Brad Keselowski +1400

Dale Earnhardt Jr. +2000

Greg Biffle +2800

Kurt Busch +3300

Jeff Burton +4000

Ryan Newman +5000

Juan Pablo Montoya +6600

Jamie McMurray +8000

David Reutimann +10000

Marcos Ambrose +10000

David Ragan +10000

[Udog]

NBA teams helped and hurt by the all-star break

The NBA All-Star break is always a tricky time of year for NBA bettors. But now, the brief pause from the hardwood has even more impact during the 66-game schedule.

Some teams have been eyeing the all-star break for weeks, awaiting a chance to catch their breath and lick their wounds. Others are dreading the time away from the court, stopping any momentum they have built dead in its tracks.

Here are three NBA teams that will benefit from the break, and three that are hurt by the hiatus:

Helped

Denver Nuggets (18-17, 20-15 ATS)

The Nuggets looked nearly injury proof earlier in the year. But that was before the hectic schedule dried up their reserves like a desert drought. They finished with a 3-7 mark in their final 10 games heading into the break, posting a 5-5 ATS mark in that span. The time away from the game allows Denver to rest ailing stars Ty Lawson, Rudy Fernandez and Nene, while getting a better grip on life without Danilo Gallinari.

Philadelphia 76ers (20-14, 18-15-1 ATS)

The Sixers started the season on fire, jumping out to an 18-7 record. But injuries to big men Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand have left Philadelphia small inside, leading to a 2-7 (1-8 ATS) skid before the break. The 76ers should have Brand back soon and Hawes is expected to return in early March. Philly has a deep bench and enough talent to make a run in the Eastern Conference – if it can stay healthy in the second half of the schedule.

Dallas Mavericks (21-13, 20-14 ATS)

The Mavericks' aging roster has been looking forward to the all-star break for a while. Dallas got caught looking ahead this week, losing to New York and the Los Angeles Lakers. The time away from the court will do wonders for Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Shawn Marion and Lamar Odom. It should also provide Dirk Nowitzki more time to get his lazy ass in shape. Dallas returned from last season’s all-star hiatus with five straight wins and finished the season on a 17-9 run (13-13 ATS).


Hurt

Miami Heat (27-7, 18-16 ATS)

The Heat are so good the break may be nothing more than a practice with LeBron, Dwyane and Chris all playing in Orlando this weekend. Miami has reeled off eight straight victories, picked up 'W's in nine of its last 10, and really seems to be figuring this Big Three thing out. However, an extended pause is never good when you have as much momentum as the Heat. It also doesn’t help that Miami starts the second half of the schedule with three road games, capped by a trip to the Staples Center to face the Lakers on March 4.

Orlando Magic (22-13, 20-15 ATS)

Things were looking up for the Magic before the all-star break. They won seven of their last 10 games and all was quiet on the Dwight Howard front. And then the All-Star Game rolled into town, bringing with it parties, and public appearances and a flood of media attention – most of it centered around Howard’s future. Distractions are not what a team like Orlando, which thrives on momentum and hot hands, needs heading into the second half of the schedule.

Houston Rockets (20-14, 20-14 ATS)

Houston has hung tough in the Western Conference despite a lack of true star power. The Rockets finished the first half of the season with a flurry, winning three in a row and seven of their last 10 to sit tied with the Lakers for fifth in the conference standings. But now, the young roster is going to have to find that groove again following the break. An upcoming five-game road trip will test Houston’s focus in the coming month.

[Udog]

NBA Championship futures odds at the break

With the league at the midway marker, now's a good enough time as any to venture back to the NBA Championship futures odds. The Miami Heat still lead the way, but bettors could find value in some mid-tier teams primed for a big second-half run.

Atlanta Hawks +3300
Boston Celtics +2800
Charlotte Bobcats +10000
Chicago Bulls +330
Cleveland Cavaliers +10000
Dallas Mavericks +1600
Denver Nuggets +5000
Golden State Warriors +10000
Houston Rockets +6600
Indiana Pacers +3300
Los Angeles Clippers +1200
Los Angeles Lakers +1100
Memphis Grizzlies +5000
Miami Heat +125
Milwaukee Bucks +10000
Minnesota Timberwolves +10000
New York Knicks +2200
Oklahoma City Thunder +250
Orlando Magic +2200
Philadelphia 76ers +2200
Phoenix Suns +10000
Portland Trail Blazers +2200
San Antonio Spurs +1200
Utah Jazz +10000

[Udog]

Oscar odds: Betting the 84th Academy Awards

Welcome, all, to the most uninspiring Oscar race in the history of Oscar races.

Though there are nine Best Picture nominees this year, the Academy failed to include even a single truly great candidate, which must be some sort of record. Granted, Moneyball is a pretty darn good movie, and Hugo was a good try. But the rest? Please!

The Help is just Mean Girls meets the civil rights movement, Midnight in Paris is a glossy tourist brochure, The Descendants is a phony ode to rich white people problems, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has been unanimously decreed extremely lame and incredibly crappy.

Making matters worse, the competition isn't even going to be suspenseful, with the Best Picture winner having been settled ages ago. If you're going to plunk money down on the Oscars this year, stick to the best actor and actress categories. At least they're not a foregone conclusion.

BEST PICTURE

What will win: Feel free to head to bed after the best director prize is handed out Sunday, because the top prize is going to the silent-film homage The Artist (-710). Not because it's a great movie, but because it's an innocuous one and everyone can agree it's perfectly fine. Meanwhile, every other film on the list has at least a few detractors...

What should win: ...except Moneyball (+5,000), which does seem to be genuinely liked by everybody. We'd love to see it pull out a surprise victory here, but the subject matter - baseball and the science of interpreting stats - just isn't the sort Academy voters consider worthy of Best Picture status. It isn't "noble" enough, and it doesn't offer the reflected glories of a hooray-for-show-biz tale like The Artist. But years from now, when The Artist has long since been forgotten, you can bet people will still be watching and talking about Moneyball.


BEST DIRECTOR

Who will win: By default, this is probably going to go to The Artist helmer Michel Hazanavicious (-1,000). Woody Allen (+4,000) and Terrence Malick (+4,000) both have sizeable cheering sections, but since neither are likely to even show up to the ceremony, the attitude of voters will probably be "eff 'em." Martin Scorsese (+500) has better odds, but the box office failure of Hugo doesn't bode well.

Who should win: Frankly, none of 'em. All the veterans have done much better work before, and Hazanavicious hasn't really earned his stripes with his modest little novelty act. If we have to pick someone, though, it's Terrence Malick, whose hippy-dippy Tree of Life was at least a hugely ambitious affair. But why did so much of the movie have to look like an ad for life insurance?


BEST ACTOR

Who will win: This is the toughest category to call, but the safe money is on The Artist's Jean Dujardin (-167). He's new to Oscar voters (which is often, but not always, a plus), suave, handsome, adorably French, and the wordless nature of his role makes him stand out. Still, don't underestimate George Clooney (+125), whose role as a Hawaiian schlub in The Descendants impressed a lot of people, even though he is completely unconvincing both as a Hawaiian and as a schlub.

Who should win: We're torn between Brad Pitt's (+2,000) confident, relaxed movie-star turn in Moneyball (probably his best performance to date) and Gary Oldman's (+2,500) subtle, minimalist work as aging MI6 agent George Smiley in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Speaking of which, how did the excellent TTSS miss out on a Best Picture nod while the even longer-titled Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close made it in? That is just wrong.


BEST ACTRESS

Who will win: Everyone says this is a race-to-the-finish toss-up between Meryl Streep (+125) and her good buddy Viola Davis (-189), but we're pretty sure Davis has the edge. No one is particularly keen on The Iron Lady, and fer chrissakes, hasn't Meryl been recognized enough?

Who should win: With the possible exception of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (Rooney Mara +4,000), all of the movies in this category are just delivery vehicles for "Oscar-worthy" performances, and we couldn't care less about any of them. That said, Viola Davis is such a good actress she almost explodes the feel-good lies of The Help. Though she's sidelined for much of the movie, her final scene - a belated outburst of anger - burns a small hole in the screen.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Who will win: Hands down, Christopher Plummer (-3,333). Though the outstanding Beginners was overlooked in every other category, Plummer's performance as a freshly uncloseted octogenarian is just too good to ignore. This 82-year-old vet seems to have arrived at a place in his career where he can move us almost effortlessly, just by dint of his intelligence and his dedication to the character. Plus, he's never won an Oscar before, so he's more than due.

Who should win: See above.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Who will win: For reasons which completely escape us, Octavia Spencer (-3,333) has had this category locked up for months now. Don't get us wrong, she's a good actress, but her role in The Help is embarrassing, much of it revolving around - no joke - a shit-pie made with her own feces. Yep, that's the Oscars for you - classy all around.

Who should win: Many favor this year's other scatologically-tinged performance, Melissa McCarthy (+3,300) in Bridesmaids, but we're more partial to Janet McTeer's (+4,000) turn as a butch woman disguised as a man in Albert Nobbs. Without even trying, she steals the movie from fellow nominee Glenn Close, and made us wish the filmmakers had focused on her character instead.