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**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 02:46 PM

LA Lakers And Thunder Take NBA Into All-Star Break

The New York Knicks and Jeremy Lin visiting the Miami Heat is part of a 4-game NBA schedule on Thursday that’s a case of quality over quantity.

This is the final day before the All-Star break. TNT will start its doubleheader at an earlier 7:00 p.m. (ET) from AmericanAirlines Arena.

Miami (26-7 straight up, 17-16 against the spread) was featured Tuesday as one of three, red-hot ATS teams playing in addition to Detroit and San Antonio. Only Detroit was able to cover, with the Heat beating Sacramento 120-108 as 13½-point home favorites, and little defense played by either squad.

The 228 combined points scored last game went way ‘over’ the 202-point closing total. The Heat were 6-0 ATS in their previous six games and a staunch defense (87.8 PPG) was a big reason, in addition to scoring 105.5 PPG.

New York may be under .500 (16-17 SU), but this is the NBA’s most talked about team thanks to Lin. He’s averaging 24.6 points and 9.2 assists over the last 10 games. However the Knicks are 1-2 SU and ATS the last three, with bad home losses to New Orleans (89-85) and New Jersey (100-92) after a 7-game winning streak (6-1 ATS).

The New Jersey game on Monday marked the return of Carmelo Anthony (groin) after missing seven contests. He played 37 minutes, but scored just 11 points on 11 shots. Lin had 21 points on 18 attempts and Anthony will not be happy without being the main scoring option. How these two coexist is a huge question going forward.

The Knicks will also be playing the second half of a back-to-back on Thursday. They hosted Atlanta on Wednesday as 6-point favorites (result pending). Reserve guards Iman Shumpert (knee) and Bill Walker (elbow) were doubtful after both missing last game. That means more minutes for the newly acquired J.R. Smith, who was in China during the lockout.

New York is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the road since Lin moved into the starting lineup, but Washington, Minnesota and Toronto hardly compare to the Heat (14-2 SU, 8-8 ATS at home).

Miami won the only meeting this year, 99-89 as 12-point home favorites on January 27. That was before Linsanity, but New York still covered even without Anthony, and is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall. The ‘under’ is 4-0-1 in the last five.

Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. (ET) on Regional Broadcasts

Orlando (21-12 SU, 19-14 ATS) is playing some good basketball lately, 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six pending Wednesday’s game in New Jersey. The ‘under’ is 3-0 in the last three, scoring and allowing exactly 88.3 PPG. Depth is an issue now with Jason Richardson (chest) doubtful and Quentin Richardson (quad) questionable on Wednesday.

Atlanta’s (19-13 SU, 15-16-1 ATS) visit to the Knicks on Wednesday was the end to a very tough 5-game trip that started out West. The Hawks are just 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games overall and leading scorer Joe Johnson (17.6 PPG) was expected to miss Wednesday and Thursday with a knee injury. The ‘under’ is 9-3 in the last 12, with points tough to come by.

These Southeast Division rivals met in Orlando on February 10, with Atlanta winning 89-87 (OT) as 5-point ‘dogs. Atlanta is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, the ‘under’ 6-0 in the last six.

San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
9:00 p.m. (ET) on Regional Broadcasts

San Antonio (23-10 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) saw an 11-game winning streak come to a crashing halt at Portland on Tuesday night (137-97 loss). The ATS mark was 10-1-1 prior to that wipeout. Manu Ginobili (oblique), Tiago Splitter (calf), Tim Duncan and Tony Parker all missed last game, with the latter two probable on Thursday after just resting.

The Nuggets (18-15 SU, 19-14 ATS) have had a tough stretch and it continued Wednesday night at the Clippers. Danilo Gallinari (ankle) and Nene Hilario (calf) have been out several games and fellow starter Ty Lawson (ankle) was questionable against the Clips. They at least have this game at home, but are only 1-6 ATS in the last seven there after starting 6-3 ATS.

San Antonio won the only meeting this year (121-117) on January 7, just failing to cover as 4½-point home favorites. The road team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall.

Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
9:30 p.m. (ET) on TNT

The Lakers (19-13 SU, 15-17 ATS) are a team in turmoil with trade rumors still swirling and multiple players unhappy. Worse yet, they’re in Dallas on Wednesday night (result pending) and are 2-6 ATS playing the second half of a back-to-back on the road. The road record overall has been awful (5-11 SU, 4-12 ATS) compared to home (14-2 SU, 11-5 ATS).

Oklahoma City (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS) also played Wednesday, but it was home against struggling Boston. James Harden (ankle) was questionable after missing last game and the Thunder rely too much on Kevin Durant (27.7 PPG) and Russell Westbrook (23.4 PPG) when he is out. They’re 3-0 SU on their 5-game homestand, but failing to cover the last two.

This is the first meeting this year. The Lakers won and covered the last two in Oklahoma City (including the 2010 playoffs), with the ‘under’ 2-0.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 02:48 PM

Canucks Take Crack At Red Wings Win Streak

With the trade deadline right around the corner at 3:00 p.m. (ET) Monday, the dominos have already started to fall this week.

A three-team deal was worked out Wednesday that sent forward Steve Downie to the Colorado Avalanche, defenseman Kyle Quincey to the Detroit Red Wings, and Detroit’s first round pick in 2012 to Tampa Bay. Thursday morning, the Phoenix Coyotes acquired center Antoine Vermette from the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for a package of picks and prospects.

Quincey won’t get an easy assignment in his first game with the Red Wings as Detroit puts its 23-game home winning streak on the line against the Vancouver Canucks Thursday night at 7:30 p.m. (ET). The game features the Western Conference’s two top teams, and will be broadcast nationally on the NHL Network.

Both teams are coming off road losses Tuesday, but they’ve been red-hot of late; Vancouver (38-16-6) is 10-1-2 in its last 13 games and Detroit (41-18-2) is 8-2-1 in its last 11 games.

The Red Wings will be without leading scorer Pavel Datsyuk, who will miss two weeks after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. Detroit kept its home winning streak alive when Jimmy Howard was out with an injury; can it do the same without Datsyuk? The Red Wings are 2-1 in three games against Vancouver this season, and each of the last two games between these two teams went ‘over’ the total.

Vermette’s first game in Phoenix will be a crucial one in the Western Conference’s playoff race as the Coyotes visit the Calgary Flames Thursday night at 9:00 p.m. (ET). Both teams have been racking up points in February as the Flames (28-23-9) are 5-1-3 in nine games this month (5-4 on the moneyline) and the Coyotes (30-21-9) are 8-0-1 in nine games this month.

Calgary entered Wednesday one point out of a playoff spot after losing at home to Edmonton Tuesday night. The Flames lost 2-1 in their one meeting against Phoenix this season in Phoenix.

Two division rivals firmly entrenched in playoff spots will battle for position Thursday night when the St. Louis Blues go on the road to face Nashville at 8:00 p.m. (ET). While Detroit has been grabbing all of the headlines, St. Louis (36-16-7) entered Wednesday just five points behind the Red Wings with two games in hand; at 15-4-2 in their last 21 games, the Blues are playing well enough to give the Red Wings some competition for the Central Division down the stretch.

Nashville (35-19-6) isn’t far behind and is 15-5-2 in its last 22 games. The Predators have dominated the season series thus far, winning all four of their games against the Blues this season. St. Louis will also be playing on back-to-back nights as they play Boston Wednesday night.

A couple of other important games in the playoff standings Thursday night include the San Jose Sharks (31-20-7) at Toronto Maple Leafs (29-24-7) at 7:00 p.m. (ET) and the Dallas Stars (30-26-4) at Chicago Blackhawks (33-21-7) at 8:30 p.m. (ET). After losing its previous nine straight games, Chicago has won each of its last four. San Jose has hit a rough patch with losses in four straight (0-3-1).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 02:50 PM

NBA Betting Continues To Favor The 'Under'

The Miami Heat lead the NBA in scoring at 103.8 points per contest.
In the 2010-11 NBA betting campaign, the league's scoring average was 99.6 PPG. There were four teams that averaged at least 105.0 PPG and 11 that averaged at least 100.0 PPG. The Milwaukee Bucks averaged 91.9 PPG, and that ranked dead last in the league.

This season, scoring has taken a dramatic turn downward and it has been biting 'over' bettors quite a bit. There are only three teams averaging at least 100 PPG, and the Miami Heat are the leaders of the pack at 103.8 PPG. Five teams are averaging less than 90 points per game, and there are several teams that would be in the playoffs right now, including the Los Angeles Lakers and the Orlando Magic, that would have ranked in the bottom three in the league last year in scoring. The Lakers and Magic are averaging 93.4 and 93.5 PPG respectively.

With the season reaching its halfway point with Thursday night's games, it seems odd that there have been 49 more 'under' contests than 'overs' on the season. A somewhat stunning 54.7 percent of games have stayed beneath the total.

Leading the way are the New York Knicks. Mike D'Antoni typically has teams that are racing up and down the court, and this year wasn't supposed to be an exception. Instead, this offense has been marred by injuries to its stars all season long, and the end result is that New York is averaging just 95.4 PPG.

The team is shooting just 43.3 percent from the floor and 30.3 percent from beyond the arc, and both numbers rank in the bottom third of the league.

The Knicks have been particularly bad on the road offensively this year. They are averaging just 93.5 PPG away from Madison Square Garden this year, and their games are only averaging 186.2 PPG. New York is 12-3 'under' on the road, and 24-10 to the low side overall making the Knicks the most profitable NBA squad for 'under' bettors.

New York took on the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night in a game that just screamed as though it should have been an 'under' performance. Atlanta was 19-12-1 'under' for total bettors this year, and the end result was no real surprise, a 99-82 win for the Knicks that stayed below the total by a half-dozen points.

Atlanta improved to 14-5 for 'under' bettors in its road games on the season, and just finished up a five-game road trip with a 4-1 mark towards the 'under.'

Six NBA teams, three in each conference, have at least 20 'under' games this year, and there is just one, the Detroit Pistons, with at least 20 'over' contests.

The Pistons have clearly been a bit of an oddity this year. They are averaging just 89.3 PPG, and they don't have a player on their team scoring anywhere near 20 PPG. Detroit has played eight of its last 10 – and 11 of the last 14 – 'over' the total, with the Pistons going 12-6 'over' at The Palace at Auburn Hills.

The hottest 'over' team in the league at the moment is San Antonio. The Spurs have played five straight past the total, which has pushed their mark to 17-16 'over' on the season.

San Antonio has clearly been a different team at home, though, where the 'under' is 10-4 than on the road where the 'over' is 13-6. Much of this is thanks to the annual rodeo road trip, which wraps up with its ninth game on Thursday against the Denver Nuggets. The 'over' went 6-2 in the first eight games of this roadie, including when the team allowed a season-high 137 points against the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 02:56 PM

Revenge Games

February 23, 2012

**Duke at Florida State**

--When these schools met at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham on Jan. 21, Florida State captured a 76-73 win as a 10 ½-point underdog thanks to Michael Snaer’s buzzer beater from the right wing. The Seminoles snapped a 45-game home winning streak for the Blue Devils. Xavier Gibson led a balanced scoring attack with 16 points for the winners. Snaer finished with 14 points, five rebounds and three assists, while Deividas Dulkys added 12 points, five rebounds and four assists. Austin Rivers had a team-high 19 points in the losing effort.

--Florida State (19-7 straight up, 13-11 against the spread) has won 10 of its last 11 games but in the process has become overpriced, as evidenced by a 1-4 ATS slump in its last five outings. The ‘Noles took the cash this past Saturday when they went into Raleigh and dominated North Carolina State in a 76-62 win as two-point underdogs. Ian Miller scored a team-high 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the field to pace four FSU scorers in double figures.

--Leonard Hamilton’s team has won 14 of its 15 home games, compiling an 8-5 spread record.

--Most books opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 140 ½. As of late this morning, most spots had Duke favored by 1 1/2 with a total of 139.

--Since the aforementioned loss to FSU, Duke (23-4 SU, 12-15 ATS) has won seven of its last eight games, including four in a row. The Blue Devils are coming off a 75-50 win at Boston College as 14 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Seth Curry and Rivers led the winners with 18 and 16 points, respectively.

--Rivers is averaging a team-high 15.0 points per game for Duke and he buried a game-winning trey to beat North Carolina at the buzzer in Chapel Hill. However, Rivers has an extremely mediocre assists-to-turnovers ratio (57/62) that needs improvement.

--The ‘over’ is 17-10 overall for Duke. On the other hand, the ‘under’ is 12-11-1 overall for the ‘Noles, 7-5-1 in their home games. The ‘under’ is on a 12-4 run in the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries, cashing in eight straight in Tallahassee.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Brigham Young at Gonzaga**

--Most books opened Gonzaga (21-5 SU, 11-14-1 ATS) as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 146 ½.

--Mark Few’s squad saw its four-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 66-65 loss at San Francisco as a five-point road favorite. Elias Harris had 21 points and 11 rebounds against the Dons.

--BYU (23-6 SU, 14-11 ATS) comes to Spokane on a five-game winning streak that began with an 83-73 win over Gonzaga as a 3 ½-point home favorite on Feb. 2. Noah Hartsock was the catalyst on that night, producing 24 points, 14 rebounds, three assists and two blocked shots. Matt Carlino added 18 points and five assists, while Brandon Davies chipped in with 15 points. Sam Dower had a team-high 15 points for the Bulldogs.

--Gonzaga lost at BYU earlier this month and was also sent packing from the second round of last year’s NCAA Tournament by the Cougars, who cruised to an 89-67 triumph thanks to 34 points and six assists from the departed Jimmer Fredette.

--Gonzaga is 13-1 SU and 7-7 ATS at home this year. The Bulldogs have been single-digit home favorites just twice, going 1-1 both SU and ATS with a win (and cover) vs. Saint Mary’s and an outright loss to Michigan St.

--Dave Rose’s team has been a road underdog three times, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. BYU won outright at Va. Tech but lost and failed to cover at Utah St. and at Saint Mary’s.

--The ‘under’ is 14-11 overall for BYU.

--The ‘under’ is 18-7-1 overall for Gonzaga, 10-3-1 in its home games.

--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Alabama will travel to Fayetteville tonight to take on Arkansas. Most books opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 132 ½. However, as of late this morning, the Razorbacks were listed as 2 1/2-point 'chalk' with a total of 134 1/2. Mike Anderson's team is coming off its first home loss of the season, while the Crimson Tide stopped the bleeding this past Saturday with a home win over Tennessee. Anthony Grant has reinstated JaMychal Green to the team but his status against the Hogs is in doubt. Tony Mitchell’s suspension will last for the rest of the year.

--Most books opened Wisconsin as a five-point favorite for tonight’s Big Ten game at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off a convincing home win over Indiana as four-point underdogs. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

--Saint Mary’s can’t afford a hiccup tonight at Portland. The Gaels opened as 11 ½-point road favorites at most books.

--Cincinnati will host Louisville at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Most spots opened the Bearcats as 1 ½-point home favorites.

--Florida will be without reserve power forward Will Yeguete for the rest of the season after he broke his foot in Tuesday's win over Auburn. This is a crushing blow to the Gators, who were already thin on interior depth. I can't think of a more damaging injury in UF hoops history with the lone exception of Brent Wright's broken foot sustained before the 2001 NCAA Tournament. Without Wright, Florida lost in the second round to Temple in New Orleans. Without Yeguete, Patric Young will have to be even more careful about staying out of foul trouble. Also, UF won't be nearly as effective with its press without the long and athletic Yeguete.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:01 PM

Breaking down the Bids

February 22, 2012

Following is our annual mid-February look at the major "board" conferences and their chances of sending multiple entries to the NCAA Tournament. We are our own "Bracketologists"and have divided the teams into three categories -- Solid, Looking Good, and Bubble.

Solid is self-explanatory.

Looking Good teams can expect an NCAA invitation as long as they don't slump badly in the next few weeks.

Bubble teams, however, remain at the mercy of the Tourney Committee, and desperately need every win to keep their Big Dance hopes alive.

Keep in mind that nearly every Division I team can qualify for an automatic Big Dance berth by winning its conference tournament. Only the Ivy League remains the lone conference tourney holdout -- and even the Ivy has been tossing around tourney ideas in recent years (really!).

Stay tuned for further developments. In the meantime, as always, the number of upsets in conference tournaments can alter the look of the Big Dance.

Also included below are conference tourney sites and dates; Conference Power Rankings (thru Feb. 19); and last year's postseason participants, including NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT action.

As mentioned earlier, we'll be providing similar conference previews for the remainder of the D-I leagues shortly.

ACC

Conference Power Rating: 5th

Solid...Duke, North Carolina, Florida State
Looking Good...Virginia
Bubble...Miami-Florida, NC State

Notes...Tourney March 8-11 at Philips Arena, Atlanta, GA.

Last year...
NCAA-4 (North Carolina-Elite Eight, Duke-Sweet 16, Florida State-Sweet 16, Clemson)
NIT-3 (Miami-Florida-3rd round, Virginia Tech-2nd round, Boston College-2nd round).

ATLANTIC TEN

Conference Power Rating: 8th

Solid...Temple, Saint Louis
Bubble...Xavier, St. Joseph's, La Salle, UMass, Dayton

Notes...Tourney first round March 6 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and final March 8-11 at Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ.

Last year...
NCAA-3 (Richmond-Sweet 16, Temple, Xavier)
NIT-1 (Dayton)
CBI-3 (Duque sne-2nd round, Rhode Island-2nd round, St. Bonaventure).

BIG EAST

Conference Power Rating: 3rd

Solid...Syracuse, Marquette, Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame
Looking Good...Cincinnati, West Virginia
Bubble...Seton Hall, UConn, South Florida

Notes...Tourney March 6-10 at Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY.

Last year...
NCAA-11 (UConn-Champs, Marquette-Sweet 16, Pittsburgh-2nd round, Syracuse-2nd round, Cincinnati-2nd round, Notre Dame-2nd round, West Virginia-2nd round, St. John's, Georgetown, Louisville, Villanova).

BIG TEN

Conference Power Rating: 1st

Solid...Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin
Looking Good...Purdue
Bubble...Northwestern, Minnesota

Notes...Tourney March 8-11 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN.

Last year...
NCAA-7 (Wisconsin-Sweet 16, Ohio State-Sweet 16, Purdue-2nd round, Michigan-2nd round, Illinois-2nd round, Michigan State, Penn State)
NIT-1 (Northwestern-3rd round).

BIG XII

Conference Power Rating: 2nd

Solid...Kansas, Missouri, Baylor
Looking Good...Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas

Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO.

Last year...
NCAA-5 (Kansas-Elite Eight, Kansas State-2nd round, Texas-2nd round, Missouri, Texas A&M)
NIT-3 (Colorado-semifinals, Oklahoma State-2nd round, Nebraska)

BIG WEST

Conference Power Rating: 21st

Looking Good...Long Beach State

Notes...Tourney March 8-10 at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (UC Santa Barbara)
NIT-1 (Long Beach State)

COLONIAL

Conference Power Rating: 11th

Bubble...Drexel, George Mason, Virginia Commonwealth

Notes...Tourney March 2-5 at Richmond Coliseum, Richmond, VA

Last year...
NCAA-3 (Virginia Commonwealth-Final Four, George Mason-2nd round, Old Dominion)
CBI-2 (James Madison, Hofstra).

CONFERENCE USA

Conference Power Rating: 10th

Looking Good...Memphis, Southern Miss
Bubble...Marshall, Central Florida.

Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN.

Last year...
NCAA-2 (Memphis, UAB)
NIT-1 (UTEP)
CBI-1 (Central Florida-semifinals)
CIT-3 (SMU-semifinals, Marshall, East Carolina)

HORIZON

Conference Power Rating: 13th

Bubble...Only the conference tourney champ will earn bid.

Notes...Tourney first round February 28 at campus sites; quarters and semis March 2-3 at home of regular-season champion, also the number one seed; Final March 6 at home of highest-remaining seed.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (Butler-2nd place)
NIT-2 (Cleveland State-2nd round, UW-Milwaukee)
CIT-1 (Valparaiso).

MID-AMERICAN

Conference Power Rating: 15th

Bubble...Akron, Ohio

Notes...Tourney first round March 5 at campus sites; quarters, semis, and Final March 8-10 at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (Akron)
NIT-1 (Kent State-quarterfinals)
CBI-1 (Miami-Ohio)
CIT-2 (Buffalo-2nd round, Western Michigan-2nd round)

MISSOURI VALLEY

Conference Power Rating: 9th

Solid...Wichita State, Creighton

Notes...Tourney ("Arch Madness") March 1-4 at Scottrade Center, St. Louis, MO.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (Indiana State)
NIT-2 (Wichita State-champs, Missouri State-2nd round)
CBI -2 (Creighton-2nd place, Evansville-2nd round)
CIT-1 (Northern Iowa-2nd round).

MOUNTAIN WEST

Conference Power Rating: 6th.

Solid...New Mexico, UNLV
Looking Good...San Diego State
Bubble...Colorado State, Wyoming

Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV.

Last year...
NCAA-3 (BYU-Sweet 16, San Diego State-Sweet 16, UNLV)
NIT-2 (New Mexico-2nd round, Colorado State)
CIT-1 (Air Force-2nd round).

PAC-12

Conference Power Rating: 7th

Solid...California.
Looking Good...Washington
Bubble...Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford

Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA.

Last year...
NCAA-4 (Arizona-Elite Eight, UCLA-2nd round, Washington-2nd round, Southern Cal)
NIT-2 (Washington State-semifinals, California-2nd round)
CBI-1 (Oregon-Champs).

SEC

Conference Power Rating: 4th.
Solid...Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt
Looking Good...Mississippi State
Bubble...Alabama, LSU

Notes...Tourney March 8-11 at New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA.

Last year...
NCAA-5 (Kentucky-Final Four, Florida-Elite Eight, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt)
NIT-2 (Alabama-2nd place, Ole Miss)

SUN BELT

Conference Power Rating: 18th

Bubble...Middle Tennessee State

Notes...Tourney March 3-6 at Summit Arena, Hot Springs, AR.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (UA-Little Rock)
NIT-1 (Florida Atlantic).

WEST COAST

Conference Power Rating: 11th

Solid...Gonzaga
Looking Good...BYU, Saint Mary's

Notes...Tourney February 29-March 5 at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (Gonzaga-2nd round)
NIT-1 (Saint Mary's-2nd round)
CIT-3 (Santa Clara-Champs, San Francisco-quarterfinals, Portland).

WAC

Conference Power Rating: 12th

Bubble...Nevada

Notes...Tourney March 7-10 at Orleans Hotel Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

Last year...
NCAA-1 (Utah State)
CBI-2 (Boise State-semifinals, San Jose State)
CIT-2 (Hawaii-2nd round, Idaho)

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:05 PM

Punchless in the Pac-12

February 22, 2012

The Pac-12's Season of Misery

Take a quick glance at Bovada's odds to win the 2012 NCAA men's basketball championship and you learn a lot about the Pac-12 conference. Specifically, that it's not very good. Currently California and Washington are the two leading contenders to win a national championship out of the Pac-12, and their odds are 100/1 each. Again, these are the two top contenders out of a major conference with a storied college basketball history.

Meanwhile, odds makers are giving schools like New Mexico (60/1) and Wichita State (75/1) a better chance.

Heck, even Harvard's at 100/1!

Place sweetheart teasers on college basketball and score a $25 Free Bet. Need to learn more about sweetheart teasers first?.

Indeed, it's been a humbling fall from grace for the Pac-12, the conference that very recently produced NBA stars like Russell Westbrook, OJ Mayo and Kevin Love. That said, is it really as bad as everyone's making it out to be?

Chances are we're going to see at least two Pac-12 teams participating in March Madness. Cal is pretty much a lock; Washington is likely, while Oregon, Arizona, Stanford and UCLA each have a shot as well. And between those six teams, there are approximately, um, zero impressive non-conference wins.

In fact, based on RPI, the most impressive non-conference win by any Pac-12 team this season was Stanford's home victory over, wait for it, Colorado State. Yes, who will forget the time the Rams charged into Maples Pavilion on Nov. 15 and left with their tails between their legs ? It was the talk of the nation.

How did the Golden Bears fare outside their conference? The Pac-12's supposed best team played Missouri in November and lost a squeaker, 92-53. They were also blown out by UNLV. But hey, way to keep it close against San Diego State and take care of business against Austin Peay.

But here's the thing - the Bears do boast a 22-6 record, so it's not like they don't know how to win. It's just, they've only beaten minnows and teams from their own conference.

What does it mean for bettors?

Well, we're going to hear a lot of jokes being made at the expense of the Pac-12 leading up to March Madness, and that could easily affect tournament betting lines. Nobody wants to wager on a team from a conference that everyone's making fun of, so it's possible there will be value to be found.

In reality, a conference's overall strength is tough to judge when teams spend most of the season playing within it. You never know, maybe Cal is a completely different squad than the one that got smoked by the Tigers in November. Months have passed since then, and the Golden Bears have won a lot of games along the way. They've probably learned a few things, too.

Lest we forget the Big East, which qualified a record 11 teams last year with just two of them making it to the Sweet 16.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:08 PM

Hoop Trends - Thursday

February 23, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Magic are 11-0-1 ATS (10.3 ppg) since January 13, 2007 on the road after a game on the road in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Heat are 0-14 OU (-9.9 ppg) since March 28, 1997 after playing at home against the Kings.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Thunder are 0-7 ATS (-6.1 ppg) since March 07, 2011 after a win at home in which Kevin Durant was not the Thunder’s high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:

The Hawks are 0-10-1 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since January 10, 2004 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Hawks are 0-10 OU (-16.7 ppg) since April 04, 2009 at home versus the Magic.The Knicks are 0-7 OU (-18.6 ppg) since March 18, 2011 on the road after a win in which Amare Stoudemire was not the Knicks’ high scorer.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:12 PM

Thursday's Tips

February 22, 2012

The All-Star break is quickly upon us in the NBA following the hectic two-month stretch of games. The Thursday card provides bettors with four contests to wager on, including the Heat hosting the Knicks and the Lakers traveling to Oklahoma City.

Knicks at Heat - 7:05 PM EST

Miami is cruising into All-Star weekend with seven consecutive victories as the Heat welcomes in the Knicks. New York will be playing with no rest after Tuesday's home rout of Atlanta, as the Knicks look to avenge a loss in South Florida last month.

The Knicks fell short in Miami, 99-89, as 12-point underdogs on January 27, while shooting 36% from the floor. Carmelo Anthony sat out that defeat with an ankle injury, as New York put up an NBA season-high 43 attempts from three-point range, making 18 treys. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade combined for 59 points in the win, while the Heat converted 23 of 26 free throws.

Miami's train kept rolling with Tuesday's shootout victory over Sacramento, but the Heat failed to cover as 13 ½-point 'chalk' in a 120-108 triumph. The 'over' of 202 was never in doubt, as the Heat and Kings combined to score 71 points in the third quarter, while Sacramento tallied at least 32 points in two separate quarters. The non-cover ended a six-game ATS hot streak for the Heat, dropping Miami to 4-5 ATS as double-digit favorites.

New York has been one of the best teams to bet on since January 31, compiling an 11-3 ATS record. The Knicks are rolling as an underdog in this stretch by going 6-0 ATS the last six games when receiving points, including four straight wins in this scenario. Mike D'Antoni's club will have the advantage at point guard (Jeremy Lin) and center (Tyson Chandler), while the frontcourt matchups with James and Chris Bosh battling Anthony and Amare Stoudemire will be exciting to watch.

Lakers at Thunder - 9:35 PM EST

Los Angeles has won the Western Conference title in three of the last four seasons, as the Lakers take on an Oklahoma City team that looks to be the squad to represent the West in the NBA Finals in June. The Thunder owns the best record in the West at 26-7, while trying to close out a five-game homestand with their 16th win of the season at Chesapeake Energy Arena.

These two teams haven't played each other yet this season, as the Lakers grabbed two of three meetings from the Thunder in the 2010-11 campaign. The only victory by Oklahoma City came in mid-April at Staples Center as the Thunder caught the Lakers in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Oklahoma City's coming-out party came in a back-and-forth series inside the opening round of the 2010 playoffs, as the Thunder pushed the eventual champion Lakers to six games.

One of the bigger problems for the Lakers this season is finding consistency away from Southern California. Mike Brown's team is 6-11 SU and 5-12 ATS on the road, including a 4-7 ATS mark in the away underdog role after last night's victory at Dallas. The Lakers' offense has struggled all season, but on the highway is where the most problems occur by scoring 100 points or more just once in 17 road games.

The Thunder is only one of two teams in the league that has lost only one home game all season (Spurs), which came back in early January to the Blazers as 4 ½-point 'chalk.' Oklahoma City has run off 11 consecutive home wins since that defeat to Portland, but the Thunder owns a 3-4 ATS record the previous seven games at home. The offense is rolling thanks to defending scoring champ Kevin Durant and the explosive Russell Westbrook, as the Thunder has eclipsed the 100-point mark in nine of the last 10 contests.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:16 PM

Miami seeks 8th straight win hosting Knicks

NEW YORK KNICKS (17-17)

at MIAMI HEAT (26-7)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -9½, Total: 199

The Knicks will get their toughest test of the Jeremy Lin Era when they visit sizzling-hot Miami (15-2 in past 17 games) on Thursday night.

Can Miami knock off the Knicks by 10 points or more? To find out, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass continues its surge, posting a 15-9 ATS record (63%) since Feb. 14.

New York is still trying to find the right chemistry with Lin and Carmelo Anthony, as this will be their third game together since Anthony returned from a groin injury. When these teams met on Jan. 27, neither Lin nor Anthony played, Lin because of a coach’s decision and Anthony because of a wrist injury.

The Knicks bounced back from a Monday home loss to the Nets by beating the Hawks handily at home on Wednesday night, 99-82. Atlanta was without its two All-Stars, SG Joe Johnson and C Al Horford, making them yet another low-quality opponent. The Knicks’ only three road games with Lin in the starting lineup were at Washington (a 14-point win), Minnesota (two points) and Toronto (three).

But the Knicks were able to keep their key players’ minutes in check on Wednesday—no one played more than 34 minutes—with five players scoring in double digits. Lin (14.8 PPG, 5.9 APG) is averaging 23.8 PPG and 9.4 APG over 10 games since moving into the starting lineup. But Anthony (21.5 PPG on 39.9% shooting) is averaging just 13.0 PPG in two games playing alongside him, and PF Amar’e Stoudemire (17.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) is averaging 15.5 PPG on 43.8% shooting from the field in six games with Lin. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend backing the Knicks:

NEW YORK is 30-11 ATS (73.2%, +17.9 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 101.7, OPPONENT 102.7 - (Rating = 3*).

Miami is well-rested after having Wednesday off and is 20-3 SU and 13-10 ATS with at least one day of rest. The Heat covered in the first six games of their SU win streak before coming up short of a 13.5-point spread in a 12-point win over Sacramento on Tuesday. LeBron James (27.6 PPG on 55% FG, 8.1 RPG, 6.8 APG) is averaging 24.3 PPG on 57% FG, 7.4 RPG and 6.6 APG despite playing only 32.7 MPG because of the lopsided nature of their wins during the seven-game streak. Dwyane Wade (22.4 PPG) has added 23.4 PPG on 59% shooting over 27.4 MPG over the same span. Wade has averaged 28.0 PPG against the Knicks over the past two seasons, while James has added 26.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 7.0 APG. The FoxSheets provide this strong trend siding with the Heat:

Play Against - Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - poor ball handling team - committing >=16 turnovers/game, in February games. (197-129 since 1996.) (60.4%, +55.1 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:18 PM

Thunder aim for 12th straight home win hosting Lakers

LOS ANGELES LAKERS (20-13)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (26-7)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:35 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -6½, Total: 191½

Two red-hot teams try to close the first half of the season on a high note Thursday when the Lakers (5-1 in past six games) visit an Oklahoma City team seeking its 12th straight home win and fifth straight victory overall.

Can the Thunder roll past the Lakers on Thursday? To find out, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass continues its surge, posting a 15-9 ATS record (63%) since Feb. 14.

The Lakers have been a horrible road team this season at 6-11 (5-12 ATS), scoring just 90.9 PPG on 42.9% FG (27.7% 3-pt FG) away from Staples Center. But the team was able to overcome a rare off night for Kobe Bryant (4-of-15 FG, 5-of-9 FT, 7 TO) and win 96-91 in Dallas on Wednesday. Pau Gasol had 24 points and nine rebounds, while Andrew Bynum tallied another double-double with 19 points and 14 boards. Gasol, who has been the subject of trade rumors, has been sizzling in his past 10 games with 18.4 PPG and 12.7 RPG. But he hasn’t enjoyed playing in Oklahoma City, scoring just 13.8 PPG on 44.7% FG in four career games in Oklahoma. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend siding with the Lakers:

Play Against - Home teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (35-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +24 units. Rating = 3*).

Oklahoma City is averaging 107.9 PPG on 51% FG during its 11-game home win streak, and the offense got a huge boost with the return of super-sub James Harden on Wednesday. Harden had 17 points (6-of-10 FG) and seven assists in the Thunder’s 119-104 thrashing of Boston on Wednesday after missing Monday’s win over New Orleans because of an ankle injury. Kevin Durant has been tremendous all season, but he has really heated up over his past five games with 33.2 PPG on 54% FG and 15-of-27 threes. He has had little trouble scoring against the Lakers as well. In the past three seasons, Durant is averaging 26.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 3.4 APG in 10 regular-season games against Los Angeles. Russell Westbrook is also having a huge season, and he poured in a game-high 31 points in Wednesday’s win over Boston. Westbrook now has 34.0 PPG (51% FG) and 6.3 APG in his past three contests. He also played extremely well against the Lakers last year with 26.7 PPG, 8.3 APG and 5.7 RPG in the three meetings. The FoxSheets provide this strong trend backing the Thunder:

Play On - Home favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=33%), poor ball handling team (>=16.5 TO's) against an average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's). (62-30 since 1996.) (67.4%, +29 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:24 PM

No. 5 Duke seeks vengeance on FSU Thursday

DUKE BLUE DEVILS (23-4)

at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (19-7)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -1½, Total: 140½

No. 5 Duke will look to avoid falling to Florida State twice in the same season by avenging its defeat at Cameron Indoor Stadium with a road victory in Tallahassee.

The Blue Devils have been money in ACC road games with six straight wins (5-1 ATS) by an average of 11.3 PPG. But FSU has had a leg up in this series, winning two straight SU and four of six ATS. Can FSU complete the season sweep of the Blue Devils? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekday 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack is a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this week.

Duke’s offense is heating up, scoring 73+ points in 11 straight contests. Seth Curry (13.6 PPG), who really hurt his Blue Devils teammates by going 4-for-16 FG in the Jan. 21 loss to the ‘Noles, has 20.0 PPG (50% FG, 52% threes) in his past five games. Curry has been a big reason Duke’s offense scores 79.5 PPG, 11th most in the nation. Freshman Austin Rivers (15.0 PPG) brings the star power as the team’s leading scorer having started all but one game this season. The only Blue Devils player to start every game, however, is post player Mason Plumlee (11.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG) who has yet to find himself consistently on the offensive end, but regularly grabs double-digit boards. He and his brother Miles Plumlee (6.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) form a strong rebounding front duo, while Ryan Kelly (11.9 PPG) can stretch opposing defenses out from the forward position with a team-best 41.3% three-point shooting. These FoxSheets trends also like the Blue Devils to win on Thursday.

DUKE is 10-1 ATS (90.9%, +8.9 Units) in road games after 3 consecutive conference games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DUKE 78.6, OPPONENT 62.7 - (Rating = 3*).

FLORIDA ST is 6-19 ATS (24.0%, -14.9 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA ST 69.9, OPPONENT 62.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite his recent skids, Snaer (13.5 PPG, 1.7 threes per game) is the team’s leading scorer. Ian Miller (10.5 PPG, 1.3 threes per game) picked up the slack against NC State in the team’s 76-62 win with a 17-point performance on 6-of-9 shooting. The key for the ‘Noles turning around their woes, however, might be winning the battle with the Plumlees in the paint. To do so, it will have to be senior Bernard James (10.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG) who must do his best to claim the paint. Luke Loucks (6.7 PPG, 4.0 APG) runs the team’s offense at the point and is not much of a scorer, but averages the most assists of any player in this game. He’ll have his hands full on the defensive end though, guarding the talented Duke backcourt. This three-star FoxSheets trend also expects the ‘Noles to win on Thursday.

Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (FLORIDA STATE) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games. (66-29 since 1997.) (69.5%, +34.1 units. Rating = 3*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:26 PM

No. 17 Louisville tries to stay hot in Cincy Thursday

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (21-6, 9-5 Big East)

at CINCINNATI BEARCATS (19-8, 9-5 Big East)

Tip-Off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -1½, Total: 131

No. 17 Louisville and Cincinnati look to move into a tie for fourth place in the conference and inch closer to a double-bye in the Big East Tournament when the two schools meet in Cincy on Thursday night.

After an ugly 1-3 start in the Big East, Louisville has been spectacular in conference play, going 8-2 SU and ATS, with its only two SU losses coming against Syracuse and Marquette—the top two teams in the conference. The Cardinals squeaked out an ugly 90-82 overtime win at last-place DePaul on Saturday after rallying from a 17-point deficit, dropping to 1-2 ATS as a road favorite in Big East play. The Bearcats have won four of their past five games, but three of the four victories came against sub-.500 Big East teams, including bottom-feeders DePaul and Providence. Cincy is 2-5 ATS over its past seven contests, and just 2-9 ATS in home games this season. By all accounts, the better team is getting points here. And expect the Cardinals to come out angry after a less-than-stellar showing against the league’s worst team. Take LOUISVILLE to win here as a road dog.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Cardinals:

Mick Cronin is 8-23 ATS (25.8%, -17.3 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of CINCINNATI. The average score was CINCINNATI 69.1, OPPONENT 68.9 - (Rating = 3*).

The healthier this Louisville team has gotten over the past month, the more dominant it has become, with four different players averaging double-figures and nine players averaging 10+ minutes. Senior swingman Kyle Kuric (13.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG) led the comeback over DePaul on Saturday, dropping 25 points on 9-for-17 shooting, including 5-for-10 from three-point range. Fellow guards Chris Smith (20 points) and Russ Smith (16 points) also stepped up, but Louisville got just 10 combined points from its frontcourt tandem of Gorgui Dieng (10.0 PPG, 9.2 RPG) and Chane Behanan (9.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG). The Cards will face a very guard-oriented squad in Cincinnati (36% 3-pt FG, 2nd in Big East), but Dieng and Behanan should be able to bottle up Bearcats big man Yancy Gates inside and force Cincy to rely on jump shots.

The Bearcats feature four double-figure scorers of their own, led by a scrappy trio of guards. Sensational sophomore Sean Kilpatrick (15.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) leads all scorers, along with senior Dion Dixon (13.6 PPG)—whose 20 points (5-for-14 FG) paced Cincinnati to a 62-57 win over Seton Hall on Saturday. The X-factor in this matchup will be the play of Gates (12.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG) inside the post. Louisville tends to play a 2-3 matchup zone, but Gates had a great game against the 2-3 zone of Syracuse one month ago (16 points, 10 rebounds) in a 60-53 loss at Fifth Third Arena. If Gates gets into foul trouble, it will be difficult for the Bearcats to generate second-chance opportunities on offense without any other solid rebounder in the lineup.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:35 PM

Gonzaga attempts to slow down BYU Thursday

BYU COUGARS (23-6)

at GONZAGA BULLDOGS (21-5)

Tip-off: Thursday, 11:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Gonzaga -6½, Total: 146½

BYU and its high-octane offense will look to score an upset win on the road and move out of a tie for second in the WCC as they take on Mark Few’s Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Cougars are a perfect 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in February.

Gonzaga had an awful first have in Provo on Feb. 2, shooting 27% FG with 15 turnovers. But the Zags turned it on in the second half (49 points, 51% FG, 4 TO) and the offense has thrived ever since, shooting 50% FG or better in each of five games since that loss to the Cougars. But which WCC team will prevail on Thursday? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekday 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday. The 6-Pack is a perfect 4-0 ATS so far this week.

With four players who average double-digit points, the Cougars are hard to plan against. Teamleader Noah Hartsock (17.3 PPG) has come alive this season with 8.7 PPG more than last season, and he is coming off a strong 21-point performance against Santa Clara Saturday (82-67 win) in which he shot 8-of-14 from the field. Leading rebounder Brandon Davies (14.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG) had 20 points on an efficient 6-of-7 shooting in Saturday’s win, but only grabbed three rebounds. Carlos Abouo (11.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is the team’s second-best rebounder, effectively using his body as a swingman. He lead the team with eight boards in Saturday’s win. Freshman point guard Matt Carlino (12.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) has shown confidence in his role commanding the offense, unafraid to launch from deep where he hits 1.7 of his 5.0 attempts per game. He registered just two points in the team’s most recent game, but notched seven assists, his highest total in 11 games. This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes the Cougars to win on Thursday.

Dave Rose is 34-12 ATS (73.9%, +20.8 Units) in February games as the coach of BYU. The average score was BYU 78.2, OPPONENT 66.4 - (Rating = 3*).

The Bulldogs feature a quieter offense led by Kevin Pangos (13.4 PPG) who is coming off a weak six-point game in the team’s 66-65 loss to San Francisco Saturday, in which he was 0-of-5 from beyond the arc. He and Gary Bell (9.8 PPG, 1.4 threes per game) must have a strong performance from deep in order to compete with the Cougars offense. It’s a good thing they have Elias Harris (13.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG) on the interior. If he can duplicate his 21-point, 11-rebound performance from his last time out, or any of his three double-doubles in his past four games, Gonzaga will be in good shape to win with some decent guard play to help him. This strong FoxSheets trends also sides with the Bulldogs:

BYU is 7-21 ATS (25.0%, -16.1 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BYU 76.8, OPPONENT 69.8 - (Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-23-2012, 03:49 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo' Write-Up

Thursday, February 22

Florida State (+10) shot 54% from floor in 76-73 win at Duke Jan 21, in game FSU trailed by six at half. Duke was just 15-40 (37.5%) inside arc, 10-23 (43.5%) outside it. Blue Devils are 6-0 on ACC road, with narrow escape in Chapel Hill the only close call- they're 4-1 as a road favorite in league play, winning by 7-7-13-15-1-25 points. Seminoles won all six of their ACC home games, with three wins by 5 or less points. ACC home teams are 6-13 vs spread when number is less than 5 points.

Arkansas (+11.5) lost 72-66 at Alabama Jan 28, outscored 20-12 on foul line; Crimson Tide shot 50% from floor, just 2-15 from arc, in game that ended Bama's 4-game losing skid. Razorbacks lost four of last five tilts, getting crushed by 30 at home by Florida in last game, their first loss at home this season. Bama lost four of its last five road games, with only win in that streak at Auburn. SEC home teams are 16-4 vs spread when number is less than 4 points.

Cleveland State is in freefall, losing last five games, with three losses by 4 or less points; Vikings (-2.5) won 66-61 at Detroit Dec 3, grabbing 12 offensive rebounds in game where both teams had 18 turnovers. Horizon home favorites of 6 or less points are 14-16 against the spread. Detroit won its last five games overall; five of their last six Horizon games were decided by 5 or less points. Cleveland State lost its last three games at home, scoring 41-49-49 points.

Ark-Little Rock (+6.5) won 69-66 at North Texas in its Sun Belt opener Dec 29, outscoring UNT 20-8 on foul line; Trojans made 9-18 from arc. UALR won six of last seven games, with only loss at Middle Tennessee; they won last four home games, allowing 59.3 ppg. North Texas is 6-1 vs spread as Sun Belt underdog, with only non-cover in double OT loss at FAU. Little Rock is 4-3 as Sun Belt favorite, 2-2 at home. Sun Belt home favorites of less than 5 points are 9-7 vs spread.

Arizona State (+11.5) lost 75-58 at UCLA Jan 7, turning ball over 15 times (-7) while Bruins shot 54% for game; Sun Devils are 2-8 in last ten games, covering once in last five games as an underdog- they split their six conference home games, losing by 9-6-14 points. Pac-12 single digit home underdogs are 10-7 against the spread. UCLA lost six of last seven games outside of LA; they're 7-3 vs spread as Pac-12 favorite. 10 of 11 ASU conference losses are by 8+ points.

Iowa (+16.5) upset Wisconsin 72-65 in Madison Dec 31, with Badgers making just 3-28 behind arc, shooting 34.8% for game. Hawkeyes won last three home games, allowing 63 ppg; they're 7-5 vs spread as dog in conference play, 4-1 at home. Big Dozen home underdogs of 7 or less points are 17-8 against the spread. Wisconsin is 3-2 vs spread as road favorite in league play- they're 5-2 SU on Big Dozen road, with wins by 29-5-4-6-7 points, and losses at both Michigan schools.

Colorado (+8) lost 84-64 at Stanford Jan 14, with Cardinal making 53% for night, 10-23 from arc, outscoring Buffs 20-10 on foul line. Stanford is 1-4 in last five road games, losing by 12-13-10-11 points, with one win at UAC- they're 1-3 vs spread as Pac-12 dog. Conference home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-10 against spread. Colorado won all seven of its Pac-12 home games (4-2 as home favorite) winning in Boulder by 40-18-11-15-1-22-1 point. Faves covered six of last eight Stanford games.

New Mexico State (-3.5) lost 91-87 at Hawai'i Jan 21, despite forcing 20 Hawai'i turnovers; Warriors made 9-17 from arc, 24-30 on foul line. New Mexico State won four of last five games; they're 2-3 as home favorite in WAC games, winning at home by 20-12-4-11 points, losing to Nevada. Aggies failed to cover last five games as WAC favorite. Hawai'i covered all four games as WAC road underdog, with all five games (3-2) decided by 6 or less points. Warriors lost by 15 at Montana in last game.

Louisville won seven of last eight games- they were down 15 last game in first half at DePaul, before winning in OT; Cardinals are 5-2 in its Big East road games, losing at Providence by 31, 11 at Marquette. Big East home teams are 14-10 vs spread when number is 2 or less points. Cincy is 5-2 at home in Big East games, scoring 55-53 points against St John's, Syracuse, their two home losses. Louisville covered its last four games when they were the underdog.

St Mary's lost three of last four games, losing 65-51 at Murray State in last game in BracketBusters; Gaels are 4-8 as WCC favorite, 2-2 away from home. Portland (+11) lost 78-63 at St Mary's Jan 14, turning ball over 20 times, but they did shoot 51% from floor. Pilots lost last five games overall (1-4 vs spread); they've lost last five conference home games, losing by 19-1-12-19-14 points (3-2 as home dog). WCC double digit favorites are 15-17-1 vs spread, 3-3 on road.

Cal State Fullerton won its last five games (4-1 vs spread), with four of those five wins at home; Titans won three of last four conference away games, with wins by 8-2-13 points. Pacific (+11) lost 78-73 at Fullerton Jan 2, with Titans shooting 54% for game, 12-25 from arc. Tigers won four of last six at home but lost at 4-23 Cal-Davis- they lost last three games with Fullerton, by 2-3-5 points. Big West home dogs of less than 5 points are 2-5 against the spread.

Gonzaga (+3) lost 83-73 at BYU Feb 2, shooting 3-19 from arc with 19 turnovers; Bulldogs are 7-0 in WCC home games, 5-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 39-28-22-11-17-14-19 points. WCC single digit home favorites are 8-7 against the spread. BYU won its last five games; they're 1-3 vs spread as an underdog this season, 0-1 in WCC. Cougars' three conference losses are by 16-14-14 points, but two of those losses were at home.

Murray State's only loss was 72-68 at home to Tennessee State couple weeks ago, game Racers led by 7 at half; since then, Murray won three games in row, by 19-9-14 points- they're 3-3 as OVC road fave- they've won all six conference road games, by 33-12-6-17-7-9 points. Tigers are on 9-game win streak, coming from behind to win Bracket Buster game at Miami, OH Sunday; Tigers covered their last four games as underdog. OVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-8 against spread.

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