Announcement

**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:41 PM

Sunday's betting tips: Melo likely out

Who’s hot

NBA: Milwaukee is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread its past five against New Jersey.

NBA: Orlando is 6-3 straight-up and against the spread its past nine against Miami.

NHL: The over is 6-1-1 in Edmonton’s past eight games.

NHL: New Jersey is 7-2 in its past nine games.

NCAAB: Michigan State is 5-1 against the spread its past six games.

NCAAB: Oregon is 6-1 against the spreads its past seven games.

Who’s not

NBA: Boston is 3-7 against the spread its past 10 games.

NBA: Phoenix is 1-4 against the spread its past five home games.

NHL: Chicago is 1-9 in its past 10 games.

NHL: Boston is 2-9 in its past 11 games against the Minnesota Wild.

NCAAB: The under is 8-2 in South Florida’s past 10 games.

NCAAB: The under is 4-1 in Indiana’s past five road games.

Key stat

3 – Colorado Avalanche forward Ryan O’Reilly assisted on all of his team’s goals in a 3-1 win over Edmonton on Friday night. It was the third three-assist game of O’Reilly’s career, with all three coming in Canada: against Edmonton, Ottawa and Calgary. Colorado plays at Winnipeg on Sunday.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks – Anthony (groin) is averaging 22.3 points per game but the Knicks have gone 5-1 without him as guard Jeremy Lin emerged as a superstar. And that trend could continue with coach Mike D’Antoni saying he expects his All-Star to sit out Sunday’s game against the Dallas Mavericks. D’Antoni did hint that both J.R. Smith and Baron Davis could see action against the defending champs.

Game of the day

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-9.5, 194)

Notable quotable

“You work within the templates the best way you think. Obviously, you're trying to do a better job than the next guy.'' -- Ken Howes, Hendrick Motorsports' vice president for competition, on modifications discovered to the No. 48 car driven by Jimmy Johnson during initial inspection for the Daytona 500 on Friday. NASCAR said suspensions for those involved have not been ruled out.

Notes and tips

New Jersey Nets center Brook Lopez is expected to make his season debut on Sunday against the Milwaukee Bucks. Lopez, who hasn’t touched the court this year due to a fractured fifth metatarsal bone in his right foot, hadn’t missed a game during the first three seasons of his career. The former Stanford star led the team in scoring with 20.4 points per game last year.

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mikhail Grabovski said he isn’t paying attention to the swirling trade rumors. "Nope," he told the Toronto Sun. "Haven't heard it. Don't think about it. Don't listen to the radio or read the papers." Grabovski has 18 goals and 21 assists this season but his recent play says he is lying: the forward hasn’t lit the lamp since last month and he has just four assists over his past eight games.

Dallas Mavericks guard Jason Terry is expected to return to the lineup when the defending champs play the Knicks in New York on Sunday. Terry, who missed the past games – one due to injury and another for personal reasons, is the team’s second leading scorer at 14.8 points per game. If Terry can’t go, expect lots of minutes for second-year guard Dominique Jones as backcourt mates Delonte West (injury) and Rodrigue Beaubois (family) won’t be available.

Dallas Stars forward Jamie Benn is expected to miss Sunday’s game against Nashville as his leg was cut by a skate during his team’s 3-2 win over Calgary this week. Benn, who was seen walking around the team facility on crutches, has 17 goals and 32 assists in 52 games this season. It took 32 stiches to close the wound.

**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:43 PM

Touch 'em all: Four MLB betting trends to follow in 2012

Spring training baseball begins in less than two weeks, which leaves MLB bettors little time to spot early-season value before it’s gone with the snow.

Here are some trends from last season baseball fans should keep an eye on heading into the 2012 MLB schedule:

Zack attacked

Zack Greinke finished last season second in the money for MLB pitchers, earning 12.74 units. A good chunk of those wins came at Miller Park where he went 11-0 and received 7.58 average runs of support in his 15 home starts.

But take the big bat of Prince Fielder out of the mix, and a possible 50-game ban for National League MVP Ryan Braun, and the Milwaukee Brewers lose 40 of their 102 home runs inside Miller Park from last year.

With NL Central hitters getting more tape on Greinke in his second year with Milwaukee and his moneyline prices at an all-time high, expect the Brew Crew’s ace to finish in the red in 2012.

Southside blues

The Chicago White Sox were terrible at home last season, burning backers for 20.68 units after finishing with a 36-45 record inside U.S Cellular Field. Ace Mark Buehrle was really the only pitcher to have consistent success at home, and he’s traded in those cold Windy City nights for the heat of South Beach.

The big problem came from the bats of Alex Rios and Adam Dunn, who did not produce like the club expected. Rios had 13 home runs and only 44 RBIs while Dunn had 11 dingers and just 42 RBIs, to go along with 177 strikeouts. Now, Carlos Quentin is gone – along with his 24 home runs and 77 RBIs – and the ChiSox are under new skip Robin Ventura - a complete 180 from former manager Ozzie Guillen.

The crazy thing is, the White Sox were one of the better road bets in 2011, posting a 43-38 away record and earning 10.32 unit on the road – one of only three MLB clubs to finish with double-digit units on the highway last year. Don’t expect that to happen again with the team’s best players getting fitted for new caps this offseason.

K.C. and the runline band

For as bad as the Kansas City Royals were last season, they just weren’t all that bad. At least as far as runline (MLB spread) bettors are concerned. The Royals finished 71-91 SU in 2011 but were 94-68 versus the runline and 25-32 in one-run games.

Kansas City should maintain that runline value for at least the first few months of the season. The White Sox and Minnesota Twins are sinking in the AL Central while the Royals are steadily improving. They were one game under .500 at home last season and boast some of the best young talent in baseball.

Lefty Jonathan Sanchez is a huge boost to a rotation that struggled to find an anchor last summer. Sanchez was at times the second-best starter in San Francisco and has a no-hitter and a World Series title on his resume. He’ll get some solid support from an improving lineup, which finished last year with a bang. In the final 66 games, K.C. hit .293 BA with a .391 slugging percentage.

Pirate booty

For the first time in a long time, the Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t take their fans to the cleaners. Don’t get us wrong – you still lost money betting on the Bucs all year, but the 1.13 units lost in 2011 is a welcome change to the mountain of cash the Pirates have cost their fans in recent seasons. And remember, Pittsburgh led the NL Central right up until July.

Things are looking up and it’s just a matter of good timing that could actually have the Bucs in the black by the time this September rolls around. The division is in shambles: Milwaukee and St. Louis each lost the face of their franchise, the Chicago Cubs are still the Chicago Cubs -- inflated moneylines and all -- and apparently the Houston Astros will be showing up from time to time. That leaves the Cincinnati Reds and the Bucs.

The Pirates have reportedly agreed to terms for starter A.J. Burnett, giving them a promising rotation with newly-signed Erik Bedard, Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton. If Pittsburgh can manage a few runs per game, this could the Pirates' year – at least when it comes to betting the moneyline.

**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:48 PM

NBA

Sunday, February 19

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Pick 'n' roll: Sunday's best NBA bets
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Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons (+5.5, 183)

One thing is certain about the Detroit Pistons: they are getting better.

Detroit is 9-1 against the spread its past 10 games and not surprisingly the team is 6-4 straight-up over that span. The Pistons have emerged as a scrappy team due to the backcourt duo of Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey learning to play together. Knight has emerged as the primary facilitator, averaging 12.4 points and 3.6 assists per game, while Stuckey is developing into more of a shooting guard.

Stuckey is averaging 14.7 points per game this season but is averaging 28 points over the past three. In a 98-88 win over Boston last week, Stuckey finished with 25 points, four rebounds and three assists as he outplayed Rajon Rondo.

“The 16 games that they started together, the time that they've spent on the practice floor, all of that is good in terms of helping in building a bond, a brothership, a kinship,” Pistons coach Lawrence Frank told Mlive.com.

Expect that bond to keep growing against Boston.

Pick: Detroit

Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-1, 190)

The 76ers may be hitting the wall. Philadelphia surprisingly got off to one of the hottest starts in the league, but the team has dropped four of its past six, including losses to the Los Angeles Clippers, San Antonio, Dallas and Orlando.

In the loss to the Mavericks, the Sixers built a commanding halftime lead thanks to 10 first-half fastbreak points. But Dallas held them to just two transition points after intermission and Philadelphia wilted down the stretch.

“We started thinking too much instead of just letting it be fluid,” Sixers guard Andre Iguodala told Philly.com. “You forget the mechanics of just catching and shooting.”

And if the Sixers are at their best in the open court, don’t expect Minnesota to argue.

The Timberwolves are giving up an average of nearly 99 points the past five games and guard Ricky Rubio (8.6 assists per game) keeps the team up-tempo at all-time.

“We had a look on our faces of concern and we have to do a better job of getting out of those funks like that,” Iguodala said. “It kind of lingered with us and it’s a learning experience.”

Consider the lesson learned.

Pick: Sixers

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:50 PM

NHL

Sunday, February 19

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Tale of the tape: Sharks at Red Wings
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San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings (-150, 5.5)

Forwards

Center Joe Thornton leads the team with 51 points (12 goals, 39 assists), followed by center Logan Couture (24 goals, 24 assists), winger Patrick Marleau (22 goals, 23 assists) and center Joe Pavelski (22 goals, 22 assists). Overall, the Sharks have combined for 12 goals the past three games.

Center Pavel Datsyuk (16 goals, 43 assists) is battling a sore throat but is expected to play. Overall, the Red Wings have eight forwards who have scored at least 10 goals this season and the team is averaging 3.1 goals per game this season.

Edge: Red Wings

Defense

Defensemen Dan Boyle and Brent Burns backstop the unit that is allowing 2.43 goals per game. However, the group has looked wretched its past five outings as it is giving up nearly 3.4 goals on 35 shots per game over that span.

Nicklas Lidstrom keeps going strong as he is plus-27 on the season and Ian White continues his fantastic year with a plus-29 rating. Detroit is giving up just 2.31 goals per game this season, including a miniscule 1.6 its past five.

Edge: Red Wings

Special teams

The San Jose power play is about as good as you will find as the Sharks are third in the league with the man advantage, converting at a 21.1 percent clip. However, the Sharks are 27th in the league when they are down a man, killing off just 78 percent of opponents’ chances.

Detroit won’t impress much with its power play, but the unit is 14th in the league, converting a solid 17.7 percent of the time. The Red Wings also are pretty mediocre when they have a man in the penalty box, keeping the puck out of their new just 81.5 percent of the time.

Edge: Sharks

Goalies

Antti Niemi has been shaky at best this month. Since posting back-to-back shutouts to close out January, he has given up 19 goals in five games. This season, Niemi is 23-13-6 with a 2.42 goals-against average and a .914 save percentage.

Joey McDonald is going to get another shot in net for the Red Wings. MacDonald is 5-1-1 with a 1.61 goals-against average and .933 save percentage since getting called up from Grand Rapids when incumbent Jimmy Howard broke his finger earlier this month. Howard is expected to start Tuesday in Chicago.

Edge: Red Wings

Word on the street

"We're thrilled this has happened. It's really good for our logo and for our ownership and for our team. Our guys work hard, and now let's get on with it."– Detroit coach Mike Babock on his team winning an NHL-record 22 straight home games.

"I protect him a lot and I talk about the team, but he has to be better. He flat out has to be better."– San Jose coach Todd McLellan on the recent play of goalie Antti Niemi.

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:52 PM

NHL

Sunday, February 19

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Ice picks: Sunday's best NHL bets
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Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets (-135, 5.5)

The Jets are flying high at home.

The MTS Center has been a fortress for Winnipeg this season as the Jets are trying to use an eight-game home stand to propel themselves back into the playoff chase.

Winnipeg, which is 17-9-2 in Manitoba, started its home run with a 4-2 victory over the Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins on Friday. Goaltender Ondrej Pavelec also snapped a two-game losing streak as he tied a career high with his 21st victory.

Meantime, the Avalanche have lost four of their past five road games and are relying on unsteady goalie Semyon Varlamov, who lost his job to journeyman Jean-Sebastian Giguere this season. Varlamov is 15-17-2 with a 2.90 goals-against average and .902 save percentage.

"This is playoff hockey for us right now and we need to have more urgency right from the start. You have to be ready to start on time in this league,” Colorado coach Joe Sacco said. “This is a no-excuse business."

The Jets also are 3-0 against the Northwest Division this season, including a 4-1 win at Colorado on Dec. 27.

Pick: Jets

St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks (-115, 5.5)

The Blackhawks took another scalp on Saturday, beating Columbus 6-1. Combined with a 4-2 win over the streaking Rangers earlier in the week, and Chicago is starting to build some momentum after a nine-game road trip.

"Obviously, the first seven games were tough but sometimes you come out of it with positives," Chicago forward Patrick Kane told the Associated Press. "The last two games we can look at it and we played good today, and we played good the last game. Hopefully we can get hot here. It's going to be nice going home today and actually just being there for a while."

Kane helped jumpstart the Blackhawks by collecting a goal and two assists combined in the wins and forward Jonathan Toews had two goals and three assists of his own.

Meantime, the Blues have won four of five but split a pair of games with Chicago earlier this season.

"Our team game was efficient in the right areas as we went along," Chicago coach Joel Quenneville said. "I still think we can get better off of these levels."

Pick: Blackhawks

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:53 PM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, February 19

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INDIANA (20 - 6) at IOWA (13 - 13) - 2/19/2012, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 41-65 ATS (-30.5 Units) in February games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 4-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MICHIGAN ST (21 - 5) at PURDUE (17 - 9) - 2/19/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
PURDUE is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 3-3 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 3-3 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SYRACUSE (26 - 1) at RUTGERS (12 - 14) - 2/19/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 42-21 ATS (+18.9 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
RUTGERS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
RUTGERS is 1-1 against the spread versus SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 2-0 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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VANDERBILT (18 - 8) at GEORGIA (12 - 13) - 2/19/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANDERBILT is 44-74 ATS (-37.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.
GEORGIA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 4-2 against the spread versus VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
VANDERBILT is 5-1 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PENN ST (12 - 15) at WISCONSIN (19 - 7) - 2/19/2012, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENN ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games this season.
PENN ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games this season.
PENN ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents this season.
PENN ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
PENN ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WISCONSIN is 116-87 ATS (+20.3 Units) in all home games since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 116-87 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
PENN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when the total is 119.5 or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PENN ST is 5-1 against the spread versus WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
WISCONSIN is 4-2 straight up against PENN ST over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DUKE (22 - 4) at BOSTON COLLEGE (8 - 18) - 2/19/2012, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) in a road game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 3-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S FLORIDA (16 - 10) at PITTSBURGH (15 - 12) - 2/19/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON (18 - 8) at STANFORD (18 - 8) - 2/19/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 3-2 against the spread versus OREGON over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 3-2 straight up against OREGON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BOSTON U (14 - 14) at LOYOLA-MD (19 - 7) - 2/19/2012, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON U is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games since 1997.
BOSTON U is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
BOSTON U is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 46-76 ATS (-37.6 Units) in all home games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 46-76 ATS (-37.6 Units) in home lined games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 3 seasons.
LOYOLA-MD is 12-30 ATS (-21.0 Units) in home games in February games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE ST (19 - 9) at MIAMI OHIO (8 - 16) - 2/19/2012, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
MIAMI OHIO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI OHIO is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:53 PM

NCAAB

Sunday, February 19

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Trend Report
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12:00 PM
BOSTON UNIVERSITY vs. LOYOLA
No trends available
Loyola is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Loyola's last 10 games

1:00 PM
VANDERBILT vs. GEORGIA
Vanderbilt is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Vanderbilt is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Georgia
Georgia is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Georgia is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games at home

1:00 PM
MICHIGAN STATE vs. PURDUE
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Purdue
Michigan State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Purdue
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Purdue's last 10 games
Purdue is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SYRACUSE vs. RUTGERS
Syracuse is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Syracuse is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Rutgers
Rutgers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Rutgers is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

3:00 PM
TENNESSEE STATE vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Tennessee State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Miami (Ohio) is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games

4:00 PM
PENN STATE vs. WISCONSIN
Penn State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Penn State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

6:00 PM
DUKE vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Duke is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston College
Boston College is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston College's last 12 games

6:00 PM
INDIANA vs. IOWA
Indiana is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Indiana is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Iowa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Iowa is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. PITTSBURGH
South Florida is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
South Florida is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

7:30 PM
OREGON vs. STANFORD
Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Stanford
Oregon is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Stanford
Stanford is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 7 games

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:56 PM

NCAAB

Sunday, February 19

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Discount dancing: Best NCAA Tournament value bets
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March is just around the corner which means the Madness is quick to follow.

There are really only four or five programs out there that look ready to win the NCAA Tournament, which means there’s a ton of value still to be had in the Big Dance futures odds.

If you like long-shot wagers and a nice payday come April 2, we suggest putting a few shekels down on these teams below, who are holding great futures value due to season slip-ups, but have the potential to go all the way to New Orleans this March.

Louisville Cardinals (+2,800)

Getting the Cardinals at this price is highway robbery. Louisville has played well below its standards this season due to a rash of injuries and the lack of cohesiveness because of them. However, Rick Pitino’s program is getting healthy and coming together at the right time.

They’ve won six of their last seven (7-0 ATS) and took Syracuse –everyone’s pick to make the Final Four – to the limit last week. Watch out for freshman Wayne Blackshear, who just debuted after sitting all season. He will be a star in March once he gets in game shape.

Indiana Hoosiers (+4,000)

The Hoosiers shouldn’t be this low on the NCAA futures list, so shop around to see if you can get a better price on Indiana. Perhaps it’s the capacity for knocking off the top teams that has books placing IU among the top 12 contenders (odds wise) for the national title. The Hoosiers did beat Kentucky and Ohio State this year – the two favorites to win the NCAA crown.

Indiana is young, dumb and full of… 3-point shooting range. It’s that ability to instantly break a game open that makes IU dangerous. Freshman center Cody Zeller is maturing with every outing in the rough-and-tumble Big Ten, and Tom Crean is no stranger to the Big Dance, going deep with Marquette and Michigan State. The biggest question surrounding IU this March will be if it can win away from Bloomington, where it’s 15-1 SU compared to just 4-5 on the road.

Vanderbilt Commodores (+8,000)

This team was supposed to be one of the Top 5 programs in the country this year. But the Commodores came out flat and bought into the hype, playing sloppy offense and lackadaisical defense. Hell, Vandy is in danger of missing the NCAA entirely if it doesn’t start kicking ass and taking names in the SEC.

The Commodores did just that in an explosive 102-76 win over Ole Miss Thursday. And while they missed out on a chance to upset No. 1 Kentucky, the Commodores showed they have the talent to keep pace with the best programs in the land. John Jenkins, Jeffery Taylor and Festus Ezeli are all NBA-quality players and, more often than not, the team with the most pro-level talent wins the Big Dance.

Xavier Musketeers (+8,000)

Xavier was another school that was supposed to set up shop in the Top 10 all season. However, the brawl with Cincinnati changed all that. The Musketeers haven’t been the same since Dec. 10, going 8-9 SU (6-10-1 ATS) in their last 17 contests. Add to those woes a terrific year for Xavier’s A-10 rivals, and the Musketeers could be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday.

Head coach Chris Mack cracked the whip following the loss to Temple last weekend. He’s shaking things up, closing practice to the public and introducing some new schemes on both sides of the ball. Tu Holloway is still one of the best point guards in the country and Mark Lyons is providing depth since being moved to the bench.

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:57 PM

NCAAB

Sunday, February 19

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College funds: Sunday's best NCAAB bets
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Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia Bulldogs (+6, 130)

The Commodores appear to be opening up the sails at the right time.

The team not only dropped 102 points in a win over Ole Miss this week, it was the first time Vandy had topped the century mark in five years. The Commodores are one of the SEC’s top shooting and in recent games they’ve surpassed their season averages. During a 2-1 stretch, Vanderbilt is shooting 48 percent from the field (80 of 165) and 45 percent from behind the arc (27 of 60). Freshman Kedren Johnson has been excellent off the bench lately, contributing 10 assists and just one turnover in the last three games.

Vanderbilt also dominated the team’s first meeting in Nashville earlier this season, out-scoring Georgia 32-16 in the paint and made 14 more free throws in an 11-point win.

Pick: Commodores

Duke Blue Devils at Boston College Eagles (+15.5, 139.5)

The Blue Devils can move into a three-way tie for first place in the Atlantic Coast Conference with a win over the Eagles, who are tied for 10th and have the league’s worst overall winning percentage.

Duke teammates and brothers Mason and Miles Plumlee are combining to average 17.9 points and 16.3 rebounds, and one of them has led the team in rebounding in 24 of 26 games.

And all that domination in the paint is opening up room for the guards.

Seth Curry is averaging 18.6 points over the last five games, during which he’s been in double figures every time and shot 43.2 percent on 3-pointers. Austin Rivers, named the ACC Freshman of the Week for the fourth straight time, is averaging 15 points and has had 22 double-figure games.

Duke also leads the ACC with 8.2 threes per game and Boston College ranks third at 7.2.

Pick: Blue Devils

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**Udog** · 02-18-2012, 09:58 PM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 02-19-2012, 08:09 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

With spring training starting, odds to win the 2012 World Series:

5-1-- Phillies-- Starting the season without Ryan Howard.

6-1-- Bronx-- Guess they didn't like AJ Burnett much.

8-1-- Red Sox/Rangers/Angels/Tigers-- Lot of big payrolls.

15-1-- Braves-Rays-Giants-- Can Buster Posey come back 100%?

20-1-- Diamondbacks-- Did they give up too much for Trevor Cahill?

25-1-- Cardinals-Marlins-Nationals-Reds-- Curious to see Miami.

****************

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up Bracket Buster Saturday.........

13) Murray State hammered banged-up St Mary's 65-51; looks like that loss to Tennessee State relaxed them; Racers visit TSU in their next game, which will be an interesting result. Better team with a revenge motive.

12) Drexel looked powerful is dismantling Cleveland State 69-49, holding the Vikings to 27% from the floor. Dragons have now won 15 in a row.

11) Arizona State didn't look powerful, trailing 36-8 at Washington State at halftime. No typo- it was 36 to freakin' 8, before Cougars won 72-50. Going to be interesting to see whether Herb Sendek comes back to Tempe next season; doubt they would fire him, but does he want to be there?

10) You look at how pathetic Arizona State and USC are on offense, then you realize they both lost their point guard before the season started, as USC's Fontan blew his knee out in Brazil last summer, and Arizona State never got prize PG recruit Carson eligible this year. Huge losses.

If you don't think so, look at the difference Jeremy Lin has made for the Knickerbockers; having a solid floor general makes all the difference.

9) Veteran refereee Karl Hess has some 'splainin' to do. Apparently two NC State basketball alums, Tom Gugliotta/Chris Corchiani, sit behind the scorers' table at NC State home games and root for their school, while at the same time critiquing the officials. They don't use profanity, but they are relentless and Hess had enough during Florida State's 76-62 win over the Wolfpack, and ejected the two of them.

Is it legal to eject fans who don't swear or throw things? Something tells me the officials need to get thicker skin. Their wallets are thick enough.

8) Notre Dame was down 39-19 with 1:30 left in the half, down 11 at the 5:30 to play mark, but rallied to beat Villanova 74-70 in OT in Philly, as Mike Brey builds his case for National Coach of the Year.

7) Ohio State lost 56-51 at Michigan; as good as the Buckeyes are, they are just 4-3 on the Big Dozen road. Sullinger doesn't get the ball enough; they're going to miss him when he's cashing those NBA paychecks.

6) Baylor has now lost three of its last four games, and is 5-5 in its last 10 after Kansas State came to Waco and upset the Bears, 57-56.

5) If you go to San Francisco home games, you had a fun week; Dons got beat by a point by BYU Thursday, 85-84, then upset Gonzaga 66-65 on Saturday night. Rex Walters is doing a good job at USF.

4) Finally caught South Dakota State and excellent guard Nate Wolters-- Jackrabbits have four players other than Wolters who shoot 40% on the arc. Wolters scores 22 a game but isn't good behind the arc. Jackrabbits are 22-7 and won at Washington by 19, so they're a legit threat to win in the Summit League tournament, but its not an easy league to win.

3) Memo to whomever it is that directs college basketball games on TV:

I say this several times of year, but no one listens: if the clock is running, never, ever, ever take the camera off the basketball, especially if one team is pressing. Don't show the fans, don't show the coach, keep it simple and show the freakin' game. Its not a lot to ask.

2) Clemson is now 0-56 in Chapel Hill, not that anyone though they had a shot this year. Thats not a typo; they're really 0-56 there, and they've had some pretty good teams the last few years. Maybe next year.

1) Last TV tilt of the night was a high-level game with Long Beach State going to Creighton and losing 81-79 at buzzer. Tremendous game, a very tough one to officiate. Doug McDermott, the coach's son, had 36 points and 11 rebounds for the Bluejays. Long Beach shot 58.8% for the game, but just 12-20 on foul line in game they led most of the way. Will be too bad if either one of these teams doesn't make the NCAA tournament.

**Udog** · 02-19-2012, 08:11 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Duke at Boston College
The Eagles look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13 points or greater. Boston College is the pick (+15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 13. Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+15 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 19

Game 821-822: Indiana at Iowa (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 68.031; Iowa 66.353
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 1 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Indiana by 4; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+4); Over

Game 823-824: Michigan State at Purdue (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 77.742; Purdue 70.046
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-4); Under

Game 825-826: Syracuse at Rutgers (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 71.874; Rutgers 64.540
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7 1/2; 117
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 10; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick Rutgers (+10); Under

Game 827-828: Vanderbilt at Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 70.833; Georgia 63.656
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 7; 133
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-6); Over

Game 829-830: Penn State at Wisconsin (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 57.524; Wisconsin 73.615
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 16; 117
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2; 112 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-14 1/2); Over

Game 831-832: Duke at Boston College (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 70.048; Boston College 57.219
Dunkel Line: Duke by 13; 134
Vegas Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+15 1/2); Under

Game 833-834: South Florida at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 60.639; Pittsburgh 68.876
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 126
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 121
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 835-836: Oregon at Stanford (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 66.750; Stanford 64.425
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 2 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Stanford by 5 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5 1/2); Under

Game 837-838: Boston U at Loyola-MD (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 49.721; Loyola-MD 59.269
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 9 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-7 1/2); Over

Game 839-840: Tennessee State at Miami (OH) (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 55.237; Miami (OH) 56.091
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 1; 124
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 3; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+3); Under

**Udog** · 02-19-2012, 08:13 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, February 19

Iowa (+11.5) shot 63% but still lost 103-89 at Indiana Jan 29, as hosts had 18 offensive rebounds and outscored Hawkeyes 25-13 on foul line. Iowa is 6-4 as a Big Dozen underdog, 3-1 at home- they've won three of last four home games. Indiana won last three games by 17-13-5 points; they're 3-5 as a conference favorite, 0-2 on road, with only road wins at Penn State by 6, Purdue by 17. Big Dozen home underdogs of 5 or less points are 13-6 against the spread.

Purdue tossed Barlow (24.3 mpg, 8.3 ppg) off its team, suspended Byrd (17.1 mpg, 8 ppg) for this game; Boilers split their six conference home games SU, losing to Wisconsin-Michigan-Indiana. Michigan State won four in row, six of last seven games; they're 1-3 as Big Dozen road faves, as underdogs covered five of their six road games. Big Dozen home teams are 21-16 vs spread when number is 5 or less points. Interesting to see how Purdue reacts to their off-court issues.

Syracuse won its last six games, still hasn't lost when Melo has been in lineup; Orangemen are 5-2 as Big East road favorite, winning six games on road by 19-14-13-7-25-1 point, with loss at Notre Dame. Rutgers is 4-6 as Big East underdog, 1-2 at home, losing half their home games by 21-5-5 points. Scarlet Knights lost last four games overall, by 11-12-5-18 points. Big East home dogs of more than 9 points are 2-5 against the spread. Syracuse had two extra days to prepare for this game.

Georgia (+12.5) lost 77-66 at Vanderbilt Jan 14; Vandy made 30-44 on foul line, Dawgs 16-20. Commodores shot 51% for game. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in Georgia's SEC home games; Dawgs are 0-2 as underdogs at home, with home losses by 15-3-13 points (2-3 SU). Vandy crushed Ole Miss in Oxford last game, shooting 63% from floor; they're 3-2 SU on road, winning by 10-10-26 points, losing at Arkansas/Florida. SEC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 9-7 against the spread.

Wisconsin (-8) won 52-46 at Penn State Jan 31, a brickfest where both teams shot 36% or worse- Penn State led by 6 at half. Big Dozen home favorites of 12+ points are 8-3 against the spread. Badgers covered one of last five games, are 1-4 as Big Dozen home favorites, winning at home by 5-20-7 points (3-3 SU); they were held under 60 points four times in last five games. Penn State hasn't won/covered any of its road games in conference play, with four of seven losses by 18+ points.

Duke was down 20 in second half to NC State Thursday, rallied to win, but there are red flags there; Blue Devils have been down by 10+ points in second half in three of last four games- they're 3-1 as road favorite in ACC games, winning away games by 7-7-13-15-1 point. Road team has covered nine of their 11 league games. Boston College is 9-3 vs spread in ACC games, 4-1 as home dog, losing home games by 15-5-22- splitting six home games SU. ACC home underdogs of 9+ points are 7-1.

Pitt (-1.5) got waxed 63-51 at South Florida Feb 8; Bulls shot 60.5% for game, getting any shot they wanted inside when they didn't turn the ball over (17 turnovers). Pitt lost its last three games by 12-7-18 points, as their season has gone in ashcan. Big East home faves of 7 or less points are 16-20 against the spread. Wrong team is favored in this game; USF is tough on defense- they've won seven of last nine games, and if their jerseys said something other than "USF" they'd be favored here.

Stanford (-1.5) lost 78-67 at Oregon Jan 5, outscored 20-5 on foul line, with Ducks making 8-17 behind arc. Cardinal is 5-2 as home favorite in Pac-12 play, winning home games by 1-8-3-20-24-5, losing to Arizona. Oregon is 5-1 as Pac-12 road dog, with only one of its three losses on Pac-12 road by more than three points- they covered last five games and nine of last 11 games overall. Pac-12 home favorites of less than 6 points are 10-9 against the spread.

Boston U is 10-4 in America East (#29 out of 32 leagues), 4-10 outside; they played #27 non-league schedule in country, which explains partly why they're 2-10 vs teams ranked in top 150. Loyola Md is 19-7, 12-4 in MAAC (#20 league) but they've lost last two games, scoring 51-54 points. Greyhounds are 2-0 vs America East teams, beating UMBC by 10, New Hampshire by 6. MAAC home favorites are 4-8 against the spread in non-conference games.

Tennessee State is only team to beat Murray State; they host the Racers next game-- Tigers won their last eight games, covering last three tries as an underdog- they beat MAC's Central Michigan by 8 Dec 10. Miami is 1-7 vs spread as a favorite this year; they lost by 7 at SE Missouri, an OVC rival of Tennessee State. OVC road underdogs of 6 or less points are 9-5 against the spread. MAC single digit home favorites are 11-3-1. TSU's last road game was their win at Murray State.

**Udog** · 02-19-2012, 08:15 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Boston at Detroit
The Celtics look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is coming off a 114-108 win over Sacramento and is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game. Boston is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 19

Game 801-802: Dallas at New York (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 123.416; New York 122.327
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 204
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 803-804: Orlando at Miami (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 122.137; Miami 132.093
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9); Under

Game 805-806: Boston at Detroit (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.619; Detroit 110.850
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 182
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Sacramento at Cleveland (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.500; Cleveland 112.598
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+2 1/2); Over

Game 809-810: Charlotte at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 105.849; Indiana 118.584
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 12 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 11; 188
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-11); Over

Game 811-812: Philadelphia at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 118.408; Minnesota 117.259
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 191
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+1); Under

Game 813-814: Utah at Houston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 115.601; Houston 120.678
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 5; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6; 196
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+6); Over

Game 815-816: Milwaukee at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 113.572; New Jersey 110.089
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee 2 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-2 1/2); Under

Game 817-818: Denver at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.435; Oklahoma City 128.753
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 11 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 819-820: LA Lakers at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 120.259; Phoenix 118.031
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3); Under

Announcement

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 2/19 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 2/19 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

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