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**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 12:05 PM

Celtics At Bulls In Focus On Light Thursday

There’s a light night in the NBA on Thursday with just three games, two of which will be broadcast as part of the normal TNT doubleheader.

The first game involves the Indiana Pacers hosting the New Jersey Nets at 7:00 p.m. (ET) on local television. Both teams could be dragging a bit with Indiana at Cleveland on Wednesday night and New Jersey hosting Memphis. Those games are pending.

Indiana (17-11 SU, 13-15 ATS) has lost its last four games and failed to cover in 6-straight. The defense has started to unravel at 102.4 PPG over the last five games, compared to 92.8 PPG for the season. Leading scorer Danny Granger (18 PPG) also injured his ankle last game and was expected out against Cleveland. The team is already playing without key combo guard George Hill (ankle).

The Nets (8-21 SU, 12-17 ATS) know all about injuries. They’ve played the whole year without big man Brook Lopez and have had several other players in-and-out of the lineup. Coach Avery Johnson’s guys are currently on a 6-game losing streak, failing to cover the last five.

New Jersey is also the worst team in the NBA playing in a back-to-situation (see table below). The record with one day rest or more is a respectable 10-9 ATS.

The Nets have been absolutely dominated in this series, losing nine in a row (1-8 ATS). Their only cover came this past January 31 in Indiana, a 106-99 loss as 9 ½-point ‘dogs.

TEAM ATS, No Rest
New Jersey 2-8

Milwaukee 2-8

Charlotte 3-8

LA Lakers 3-7

Portland 3-6

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls
8:00 p.m. (ET) on TNT

These teams met last Sunday in Boston with the Celtics escaping 95-91 as 1-point underdogs. Point guard Rajon Rondo had 32 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds, not having to face the injured Derrick Rose (back).

The Celtics are 15-12 SU and 13-14 ATS pending a Wednesday night home game versus Detroit. Kevin Garnett (hip) was doubtful as well as backup swingman Mickael Pietrus (knee). Reserve big man Brandon Bass (knee) is already out at least another week.

All three guys could remain sidelined for Chicago, a worrisome thought for an older team playing in a back-to-back. Veterans Jermaine O’Neal and Chris Wilcox could start up front, with rookie JaJuan Johnson getting major minutes. The team is just 4-5 SU (5-4 ATS) away this season.

The Bulls are 24-7 SU and 18-13 ATS after a 121-115 home win over Sacramento on Tuesday. Six players scored in double-digits even with Rose out again, but still failing to cover the big 11-point spread. Rose is doubtful for Thursday, with backcourt mate Richard Hamilton (groin) already out since late January. C.J. Watson and Ronnie Brewer are starting in their place.

Chicago is 10-1 SU (5-6 ATS) at United Center this year, and has won and covered the last three versus Boston there (‘under’ 3-0).

L.A. Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers
10:30 p.m. (ET) on TNT

The Clippers (17-9 SU, 15-11 ATS) have a home game with Washington on Wednesday before this matchup. This team is still adjusting to losing guard Chauncey Billups (Achilles) for the year. Randy Foye is too inconsistent playing next to Chris Paul, and J.R. Smith could be inked soon after playing in China. Los Angeles is 7-6 SU (6-7 ATS) away this year, including a recent 4-2 SU and ATS Eastern trip.

The Trail Blazers (15-14 SU, 15-13-1 ATS) have a lot of obstacles for this game. For one, it’s their third game in three nights after hosting Washington on Tuesday (124-109 loss as giant 15-point favorites) and at Golden State on Wednesday (result pending).

Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (22.6 PPG) played less than two minutes against Washington after spraining his ankle. He was listed out on Wednesday and his status for this game is up in the air.

Portland is 11-4 SU and 10-4-1 ATS overall at the Rose Garden and scores more points at home (105.4 PPG) than any other team, but this is a mediocre-at-best offense without Aldridge.

This is the third meeting between the teams already this year. The home team won and covered both. Portland is 4-0 SU and ATS the last four versus the Clippers in Oregon, with the ‘over’ 9-1-2 in the last 12 there in the matchup.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 12:14 PM

Sixers And Wizards NBA's Best And Worst ATS

Philadelphia covered the spread in 19 of its initial 29 games on the schedule.
With the NBA’s all-star weekend just 10 days away, each team around the league is approaching (or has reached) 30 games played, making for a pretty strong sample size to examine ATS statistics. Here’s a look at the teams that have been the best and worst at covering the spread through the first portion of the season.

The best team against the spread has been one of the NBA’s biggest surprise teams in the Philadelphia 76ers. Entering the season as a 125/1 long shot to win the NBA Championship, most were writing the 76ers off as an also-ran in the Eastern Conference. But with the 11th best offense in the league (95.9 points per game) and the second best defense (allowing just 86.8 points per game),

Philadelphia has the third best straight-up record in the Eastern Conference at 20-9 and the best ATS record in the league at 19-10, covering the spread 65.5 percent of the time.

The only other team covering spreads at 60 percent or better is the Los Angeles Clippers with a 15-9-2 ATS record (62.5%). Big things were expected from the Clippers this season after they traded for Chris Paul, but not many were expecting Los Angeles to gel so quickly; the Clippers entered Wednesday with the sixth best offense in the NBA (98.4 points per game) and the third best record in the Western Conference at 17-9.

Rounding out the top five in the ATS winners category are the Denver Nuggets (17-12 SU and ATS), San Antonio Spurs (20-9 SU and 17-12 ATS) and Chicago Bulls (24-7 SU and 18-14 ATS).

While the Nuggets and Spurs have the same ATS record, they are going in different directions. Denver is 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games while San Antonio is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine. For Chicago, a day-to-day back injury keeping star point guard Derrick Rose out of action could hurt the Bulls’ ATS production.

Looking at the best teams to fade over the first 30 games of the season, the three teams with the worst straight up records in the standings also have the worst ATS results. The New Orleans Hornets (5-23 SU, 11-17 ATS), Charlotte Bobcats (3-25 SU, 10-18 ATS) and the Washington Wizards (7-22 SU, 10-19 ATS) are all covering the spread in less than 40 percent of their games.

Rounding out the bottom six are the Phoenix Suns (12-17 SU and ATS), New Jersey Nets (8-21 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) and the New York Knicks (14-15 SU, 12-16-1 ATS). The Knicks' struggles against the NBA odds are clearly weighed down by a 4-15-1 ATS start to the season; New York is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games and has won six straight backed by the red-hot point guard sensation Jeremy Lin.

Looking ahead on the schedule, there are a couple of key matchups coming up in which a Top 5 ATS team is facing a Bottom 5 ATS team. The Wizards (10-19 ATS) meet the Clippers (15-9-2 ATS) Wednesday night and the New Jersey Nets (12-16-1 ATS) will take on the Bulls (18-14 ATS) Saturday night.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:03 PM

Coyotes Visit LA Kings On Thursday NHL Card

A matchup between two NHL teams battling for second place in the Pacific Division caps off a night featuring seven games overall on Thursday when the Phoenix Coyotes visit the Los Angeles Kings at 10:30 p.m. (ET). Both the Coyotes (27-21-9) and the Kings (27-19-11) are chasing the San Jose Sharks (31-17-6), who lead the Pacific and continue a season-high nine-game road trip against the Tampa Bay Lightning (24-26-6) at 7:30 p.m.

Los Angeles has won six of the last seven meetings with Phoenix and returns to Staples Center after going 2-4 on a six-game road trip. The Kings ended the trip with a 4-2 win over the Dallas Stars (28-25-3) on Sunday and saw the ‘over’ cash after their previous five games all went ‘under’ the total. However, they are just 1-8 in their past nine games following a victory.

The Coyotes have struggled mightily on the road lately, dropping seven of their last eight away from home, including a tough 2-1 shootout loss to the Vancouver Canucks (35-15-6) on Monday. That setback ended their five-game winning streak, with four of those games taking place at home.

The Sharks are three points ahead of LA and five in front of Phoenix in the Pacific despite playing three less games. They have won six of the past seven meetings with Tampa Bay and are 1-1 in the first two games of their road trip following a 5-3 win against the Washington Capitals (28-23-5) on Monday.

The Lightning have lost four of their last five after being blanked 4-0 by the Ottawa Senators (29-22-8) at home on Tuesday. They fell to 15-9-2 at the Tampa Bay Times Forums and have seen the ‘over’ go 18-8 there overall this season.

In other hockey betting action on Thursday, the Chicago Blackhawks (29-21-7) will try to put an end to their nine-game losing streak when they visit the Eastern Conference-leading New York Rangers (37-13-5) at 7:00 p.m. A season-high nine-game road trip has been especially unkind to the Blackhawks, who have dropped the first seven games and lost 11 in a row away from home overall.

The Rangers have won four of the last five meetings with Chicago and are riding a four-game winning streak overall. They increased their conference lead to nine points on Tuesday with a 3-0 shutout of the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins (34-18-2), who are second in the East and visited the Montreal Canadiens (23-25-9) on Wednesday.

The remaining games on Thursday include the Buffalo Sabres (24-26-6) visiting the Philadelphia Flyers (31-18-7) at 7:00 p.m., the St. Louis Blues (34-15-7) hosting the New York Islanders (24-24-8) at 8:00 p.m., the Winnipeg Jets (26-26-6) against the Minnesota Wild (25-23-8) at 8:00 p.m. and the Calgary Flames (27-22-8) versus the Stars at 8:30 p.m.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:06 PM

Thursday's Tip Sheet

February 15, 2012

**Virginia Tech at Florida State**

--Since joining the ACC in the early 1990s, Florida State (17-7 straight up, 12-10 against the spread) hasn’t won a conference championship of any sort in basketball. The Seminoles haven’t won a regular-season title and came up short in their lone appearance in the ACC Tournament finals. However, there’s a chance this year as they go into Thursday’s action in a three-way tie with Duke and North Carolina for the league lead with identical 8-2 records (pending UNC’s result Wednesday at Miami).

--Leonard Hamilton’s team has won 13 of its 14 home games, compiling an 8-4 spread record in the process. The ‘Noles have won eight of their last nine games, but they have failed to cover the number in three straight outings, including Saturday’s 64-59 home win over Miami as 6 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Bernard James was the catalyst against the Hurricanes, finishing with 18 points, six rebounds and four blocked shots.

--Virginia Tech (14-11 SU, 6-14-1 ATS) has burned the pockets of its backers in six straight games and has failed to cover in 10 of its last 11 outings. Seth Greenberg’s squad won a 66-65 decision over Boston College this past Sunday, but it came nowhere near taking the cash as a 12-point home favorite. Freshman forward Dorian Finney-Smith capped a furious rally from a six-point deficit with 1:39 left by scoring on a putback with 2.6 seconds remaining. He paced the Hokies with 17 points and eight rebounds.

--When these schools met in Blacksburg on Jan. 10, FSU collected a 63-59 victory as a four-point road underdog. The 122 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 128-point total. James was the catalyst for the ‘Noles with 18 points, 15 boards and three blocked shots. Erick Green had a game-high 21 points for the Hokies in defeat.

--The ‘under’ is 11-10-1 overall for FSU, 6-5-1 in its home games. Meanwhile, the Hokies have watched the ‘under’ cash at a 13-8 overall clip.

--The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.

--BetOnline.com opened FSU as a nine-point favorite with a total of 126.

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Wisconsin at Michigan State**

--BetOnline.com opened Michigan St. (20-5 SU, 15-7 ATS) as a six-point favorite with a miniscule total of 110.

--Tom Izzo’s team has won three in a row and five of its last six both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 58-48 win at Ohio St. as an 8 ½-point underdog. Adreian Payne made all six of his shots from the floor en route to scoring 15 points to go with four rebounds, two steals and two blocked shots. Draymond Green added 12 points and nine boards in the upset of the Buckeyes, who had won their 39 previous home games.

--Wisconsin (19-6 SU, 13-9 ATS) has prevailed in seven of its last eight games, including last Thursday’s 68-61 win at Minnesota in overtime as a 1 ½-point favorite. Jordan Taylor scored a game-high 27 points, while Ryan Evans finished with 17 points and 11 rebounds.

--Michigan St. has been nasty at home, winning all 15 games while posting a 9-3 spread record.

--Wisconsin has been an underdog three times, compiling a 2-1 spread record with one outright win at Purdue.

--When these Big Ten rivals met in Madison on Jan. 3, Michigan St. captured a 63-60 win in overtime as a 6 ½-point underdog. Green led the way with 18 points and 14 rebounds to offset Taylor’s game-high 28 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the field.

--The ‘under’ is 11-10-1 overall for the Spartans, but the ‘over’ is 7-5 in its home games. The ‘under’ is in the midst of a 4-1 run in MSU’s last five overall games.

--The ‘under’ is 14-8 overall for the Badgers, 3-1 in their last four contests.

--Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**North Carolina State at Duke**

--Duke (21-4 SU, 11-14 ATS) has won back-to-back games since its stunning home loss to Miami on Feb. 5. The Blue Devils rallied in the final two minutes last Wednesday to win at North Carolina on Austin Rivers’s buzzer beater. Then on Saturday, they didn’t fall victim to the classic letdown spot, surging ahead of the number down the stretch to capture a 73-55 win over Maryland as 15-point home favorites.

--BetOnline.com opened Duke as an 11-point favorite with a total of 150.

--North Carolina State (18-7 SU, 9-12 ATS) has won three straight and seven of its last eight, as Mark Gottfried has done an excellent job in his first year after replacing Sidney Lowe, who led the Wolfpack to the 1983 national championship as the school’s starting point guard.

--N.C. St. is coming off a 61-52 win at Ga. Tech last Thursday as a four-point road favorite. C.J. Williams led four double-figure scorers with a team-high 15 points, while C.J. Leslie turned in a double-double with 13 points and 10 boards.

--Duke has an 11-2 SU record and a 5-8 ATS mark at home in Cameron Indoor Stadium this year. The Blue Devils have been double-digit favorites 16 times, going 6-10 versus the number.

--N.C. St. owns a 4-3 spread record with a pair of outright wins in seven previous underdog situations. The Wolfpack has only been a double-digit ‘dog once, losing 74-55 at UNC.

--The ‘over’ is 16-9 overall for Duke, 9-4 in its home games.

--The ‘over’ is 11-10 overall for N.C. St., but the ‘under’ is 4-1 in its last five games.

--The ‘over’ is on a 10-2 run in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these schools.

**Gonzaga at Santa Clara**

--Gonzaga (20-4 SU, 11-12-1 ATS) has won three straight games since losing at BYU on Feb. 2. The Bulldogs picked up a huge win last week when it avenged a loss at Saint Mary’s by trouncing the Gaels 73-59 as 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ Next, they thumped Loyola-Marymount by a 78-59 count Saturday as 12 ½-point home favorites.

--In the win over LMU, Kevin Pangos led the way with 21 points and nine assists, while Elias Harris posted a double-double with 17 points and 15 rebounds.

--Santa Clara (8-17 SU, 7-15 ATS) has lost 13 consecutive games and hasn’t tasted a victory since beating Eastern Michigan on Dec. 29. The Broncos are returning home after dropping three in a row on the road during an eight-day span. They took the cash in their last outing, an 82-67 loss at Saint Mary’s as 21-point underdogs. Denzel Johnson scored a team-high 17 points in the losing effort.

--Santa Clara has only won six of its 12 home games, limping to an abysmal 2-8 spread record. The Broncos are winless both SU and ATS in three games as home underdogs.

--When these schools met in Spokane on Jan. 12, Gonzaga cruised to an 82-60 home win as an 18 ½-point favorite. Sam Dower came off the bench and scored a game-high 17 points for the Bulldogs, who led 28-26 at intermission before outscoring the Broncos by 20 points in the second half.

--The ‘under’ is 16-7-1 overall for Gonzaga, cashing in six of its last eight games. Meanwhile, Santa Clara has seen the ‘over’ go 14-8 overall, 6-4 in its home outings.

--The ‘over’ has hit at an incredible 18-4 clip in the last 22 head-to-head meetings between these WCC rivals.

--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Florida scored the first 16 points of the second half Tuesday at Alabama, breaking open a tie game at halftime en route to a 61-52 win as a three-point favorite. The short-handed Crimson Tide couldn’t buy a bucket in the second half and never got closer than nine after UF’s 16-0 surge. Patric Young scored a team-high 19 points for the Gators, who were playing without their top two reserves, Will Yeugete (concussion) and Mike Rosario (hip pointer). UF plays Saturday at Arkansas and Yuegete isn’t expected to be available. Rosario remains a question mark.

--Anthony Hickey Jr. hit a floater in the lane with two ticks remaining in overtime to propel LSU to a 69-67 home win Tuesday over Mississippi St. Even more disconcerting to the Bulldogs, their stud center Arnett Moultrie suffered a shoulder injury on the final play of regulation and didn’t play in the extra session. Gamblers should check Moultrie’s status before MSU plays Saturday at Auburn.

--UConn announced Wednesday that head coach Jim Calhoun will miss at least three more games.

--George Mason remained atop the Colonial standings thanks to Tuesday’s 63-61 win over VCU thanks to Sherrod Wright’s 25-foot buzzer beater. I’m of the opinion that both of these teams should be in the NCAA Tournament. We shall see…

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:09 PM

Hoops Trends - Thursday

February 16, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bulls are 10-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since April 11, 2010 when their DPA was at least plus 15 points in their previous game.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Trailblazers are 0-17 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 13, 2000 at home after playing on the road against the Warriors.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nets are 10-0 OU (14.8 ppg) since March 30, 2011 after losing the previous matchup in which Kris Humphries took fewer than 10 shots.

CHOICE TREND:

The League is 11-0 OU (11.3 ppg) in database history as between a 9 point favorite and 12 point dog when playing their third game in three days if they’ve lost each of the last two by 5+ points.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Pacers are 0-9 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 20, 2010 with no rest after a loss in which Roy Hibbert was not the Pacers’ high scorer.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:11 PM

Thursday Tips

February 15, 2012

The Thursday NBA card is a light one with just three games, including the standard TNT doubleheader. The night begins with the Bulls and Celtics meeting for the second time in five days at the United Center, while the Blazers play their third game in three nights against the Clippers in Southern California.

Celtics at Bulls - 8:00 PM EST

The venue shifts to the Windy City for Thursday's contest after Boston knocked off Chicago as short road 'dogs on Sunday, 95-91. However, the Bulls were without their MVP point guard Derrick Rose, who has been sitting out with back spasms. Chicago hopes to get Rose back in the lineup against Boston, as the former Memphis standout has missed the previous three games (2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS).

The Celtics own a 10-4 SU and 7-7 ATS record the last 14 contests following a five-game skid in mid-January. In Sunday's home victory over the Bulls, Boston held the lead the entire game, while shooting a stout 49% from the floor against one of the league's top defenses. Rajon Rondo took advantage of Rose sitting out by putting up a triple-double, including a season-high 15 assists. Boston picked up its fourth straight victory in the role of an underdog, which also includes wins over Orlando (twice) and Indiana.

The Bulls continue a six-game homestand following a nine-game road swing in which they finished 6-3 SU/ATS. In Chicago's first game back at the United Center, the Bulls held off the Kings, 121-115 on Tuesday as 11-point favorites. Sacramento managed the road cover in spite of trailing Chicago by 19 points with nine minutes remaining, as the Kings blew up for 30 points in the final eight minutes. The 115 points allowed by the Bulls was the most given up all season by Tom Thibodeau's team, while snapping a five-game streak of limiting foes to less than 100 points.

Chicago won both meetings at the United Center last season, each by double-digits. Rose burned the Celtics for 36 points in a 90-79 triumph as two-point favorites last January, while the Bulls held the C's to less than 38% shooting from the floor in each home win. Each of the previous four matchups in the Windy City has finished 'under' the total, while six of the nine last nine contests between these teams have cashed the 'under.'

Blazers at Clippers - 10:30 PM EST

These two teams are playing with no rest, while the Blazers are taking the court for the third time in three nights. Los Angeles hits the road for the seventh time in eight games after Wednesday’s home rout of Washington, while the Blazers return home following last night’s victory at Golden State.

Nate McMillan’s team will definitely be gassed heading into tonight’s action, while All-Star forward LaMarcus Aldridge is nursing an ankle injury suffered in Tuesday’s loss to the Wizards. Aldridge is likely going to be out once again after sitting out last night at Golden State, as this Portland team is falling fast after a quick start. The Blazers began the season at 7-2, but eventually went backwards with an 9-12 mark the last 21 games. However, Portland will have some momentum coming into tonight after winning at Golden State on Wednesday, 93-91 as five-point 'dogs.

The Clippers aren’t in an easy travel spot here by playing in their eighth different city since February 4, while going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in their previous eight road contests. Los Angeles fell in its last trip to the Rose Garden on January 10, a 105-97 setback as 5 ½-point underdogs. All five Portland starters scored in double-figures, led by Gerald Wallace’s 20 points, while Aldridge and Wesley Matthews each put in 18 points apiece.

Through 21 instances this season, teams playing their third game in three nights own a 12-9 ATS record. However, after a 6-0 ATS start, this trend is hitting at 40% the last 15 games, including a home loss by Phoenix last night. Home clubs have profited the most in the situation with a 10-5 SU/ATS record, while the Blazers have won each of the last five meetings in this series at the Rose Garden.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:16 PM

No. 7 MSU hosts No. 15 Wisconsin Thursday

WISCONSIN BADGERS (19-6)

at MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (20-5)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -6½, Total: 114

Coming off a big upset on the road over Ohio State, No. 7 Michigan State returns to East Lansing to take on No. 15 Wisconsin on Thursday night.

Wisconsin is best known for lulling its opponents to sleep, with its tenacious defense and slow pace of play keeping opponents to 50.3 PPG, the lowest mark in Division I. But the Spartans have been unbeatable at home (15-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) and are 9-3 (SU and ATS) in conference play. This includes a 63-60 win in Madison on Jan. 3 when Jordan Taylor was 7-for-11 FG and the rest of Wisconsin shot 11-of-43 FG (26%). Can Michigan State cover this spread against the 15th-best team in the nation? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekday 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each week.

The Badgers have lost six straight road meetings in this series by an average of 8.7 PPG, as only one final margin came within seven points. However, Jordan Taylor (14.5 PPG) has improved greatly after a slow start to the year. In the team’s past five games he is averaging 17.2 PPG, and is coming off a particularly strong 27-point performance (5-of-9 threes) in last Thursday’s overtime win at Minnesota. Jared Berggren (10.4 PPG) and Ryan Evans (10.3 PPG) both average double-digit points as well, while Evans is the team’s best rebounder at 6.8 RPG. He and Mike Bruesewitz (5.3 RPG) will have to be aggressive on the glass, fighting the burly MSU frontcourt for every missed shot. This three-star FoxSheets trend expects Wisconsin to keep the final margin close:

Play Against - A home team (MICHIGAN STATE) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less. (111-58 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.7%, +47.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Michigan State has picked up 42.5 RPG over its past four contests (3-1 ATS) and out-rebounded these four opponents by 15.8 RPG. The Spartans are led on the scoreboard and the glass by Draymond Green (15.0 PPG, 10.5 RPG). Over his past three games (3-0 SU and ATS), Green is averaging 16.3 PPG and a whopping 12.3 RPG. His play is the key to their success as Michigan State’s only loss (SU and ATS) in their past six games came when he injured his ankle against Illinois. Keith Appling (11.9 PPG) leads the Spartans in assists (3.8 APG) although he is a poor shooter from deep, making just 27.1% of his long-range shots this season. Another key player to watch out for is freshman Branden Dawson (8.7 PPG), who with his 57.2% FG is efficient from the field and sizable for a guard at 6-foot-6. This rare five-star FoxSheets coaching trend shows that the Spartans thrive when tasked with covering a moderate point spread.

Tom Izzo is 34-8 ATS (81.0%, +25.2 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points as the coach of MICHIGAN STATE. The average score was MICHIGAN STATE 73.7, OPPONENT 60.0 - (Rating = 5*).

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**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:18 PM

No. 5 Duke looks to dominate NC State again

NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (18-7)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (21-4)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -10, Total: 151

North Carolina State will look to be the third team to walk into Cameron Indoor Stadium and walk out with a victory this season when they take on No. 5 Duke in search of a signature win.

Cameron has been unfriendly to the Wolfpack as they have dropped 13 straight at Duke, losing seven of their past eight trips by double-digit points. But this year, the Blue Devils have been less dominant than usual on Coach K’s court, falling in two of their past three conference games at home, both to double-digit underdogs. This year’s NC State squad is surprisingly potent with a 7-3 ACC record, playing particularly well on the road this season (4-2 SU and ATS). The key factor keeping the Wolfpack competitive in this game will be their ability to control the game on the boards. NC State grabs 36.9 RPG while Duke snags just 36.4, a weakness on this high-powered team that is scoring 79.7 PPG. C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell (10.8 RPG over the team’s past four) have the ability to control the glass, even against the Plumlee brothers who have come on strong lately. Duke is 1-5 ATS at home in its past five in Durham, all games in which it was a double-digit favorite. All of these factors make them unreliable heavy favorites, so play on NC STATE on the road to keep this one close.

These two FoxSheets trends also like the Wolfpack to win on Thursday.

Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (DUKE) - off a home win against a conference rival, in February games. (180-103 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.6%, +66.7 units. Rating = 3*).

DUKE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DUKE 81.2, OPPONENT 68.2 - (Rating = 2*).

NC State is led on offense by 6-foot-6 junior Scott Wood (13.4 PPG) who is nailing 2.9 threes per game at 44%. He is also deadly accurate from the foul line (95% FT) where he has missed just three times this season (56-for-59). Wood, C.J. Williams (12.2 PPG, 37% 3-pt FG) and point guard Lorenzo Brown (11.8 PPG, 6.7 APG) will have to keep the Blue Devils honest on the perimeter. Although Brown is not the same caliber of shooter as the other two (33% 3-pt FG), he controls the ball on the outside for the Wolfpack and sets the tone for their offense. Key for NC State though, will be the play of Leslie (13.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and Howell (11.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG). Leslie is coming off a double-double in the team’s win against Georgia Tech, while Howell has been a beast on the boards lately as well, and scored 18 points (9-of-11 FG) in last year’s trip to Durham. If they can control the paint, this game will be tight. Play on the Wolfpack.

Duke fans have been enjoying watching the emergence of Austin Rivers (15.0 PPG), who over his past four games is averaging 19.5 PPG on 3.5 threes per game (14-of-29). His play has overshadowed that of his talented supporting cast, three of whom average double-digit points. Seth Curry joins him on the perimeter with 12.9 PPG while Ryan Kelly (12.4 PPG) is a forward who also threatens on the outside (41% 3-pt FG). Mason Plumlee averages a near double-double (11.6 PPG, 9.9 RPG), and is coming off a strong 16-point, 10-rebound performance against Maryland. He also had a double-double (16 points, 12 boards) in the 76-52 home win over NC State last year. The X-factor for Duke however, could be his brother Miles Plumlee, who had the game of his life against the Terrapins with 13 points and 22 rebounds. If the Wolfpack cannot account for him, then they will have trouble making noise about any sort of upset.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:19 PM

Nets and Pacers seek to end losing skids Thursday

NEW JERSEY NETS (8-22)

at INDIANA PACERS (17-12)

Tip-off: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Indiana -9, Total: 192

The Pacers have an excellent opportunity to snap their five-game slide when they host the Nets on Thursday night.

Both teams played on Wednesday night, the Nets losing at home to Memphis (their seventh SU loss in a row) and Indiana dropping a game in Cleveland. The Pacers’ fate will rely on the health of SF Danny Granger, who suffered an ankle injury early in Tuesday’s loss to Miami and missed Wednesday’s game in Cleveland. He is listed as questionable. Can the Pacers cover this large spread without their best player? To find out, connect to the NBA Three At Three for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each weekday. NBA Three At Three has started off the week on fire, going 6-3 ATS.

The Nets are 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS so far in February, as they’ve been completely atrocious defensively. They’ve been the NBA’s worst defensive team throughout the season, but they’ve been especially bad of late. So far in February, they’re allowing 103.4 PPG and opponents have shot 50% from the field against them. On Wednesday, a Memphis team that’s averaging 92.9 PPG on the year beat them 105-100.

The Nets are doing solid enough work offensively. They shot 51% from the field (41% threes) and scored 100 points against a Grizzlies team that’s good defensively. They’re averaging 93.7 PPG and hitting 44% of their field goals and 39% of their threes on the road this year (as opposed to 91.3 PPG on 41% FG and 32% from three at home). PG Deron Williams (21.1 PPG, 8.5 APG) is averaging 25.3 PPG and 8.6 APG over his past 12 games, and SG Anthony Morrow (13.9 PPG, 42% from three) is averaging 16.9 PPG and hitting 41% of his threes in his 10 games during this same span. The FoxSheets provide another reason to back the Nets:

Play On - Road underdogs (NEW JERSEY) - after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. (45-21 since 1996.) (68.2%, +21.9 units. Rating = 2*).

The Pacers have lost seven straight ATS and have looked brutal without Granger over the past two games (he turned his ankle at the end of the first quarter of Indiana’s Tuesday night loss to Miami). They’ve averaged 88.5 PPG and hit 39.9% from the field (and 7-for-31 from three) over their past two games. In Cleveland on Wednesday, Jones (5.4 PPG) shot 1-for-8 from the field and scored three points while posting a -11 plus/minus in 37 minutes of action. Twelfth man Lance Stephenson also saw extended minutes with 29. He’s 6-for-17 from the field over the past two games. C Roy Hibbert (13.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG) could be their best weapon against the Nets, who don’t have a legitimate center with Brook Lopez out. Hibbert, who had 17 points and eight rebounds in the Cleveland loss, has averaged 16.6 PPG on 61% FG in the past three seasons versus New Jersey. The FoxSheets have another trend siding with the Pacers:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. (53-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +26.6 units. Rating = 2*).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:24 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 16

Florida State (+4) won 63-59 at Virginia Tech Jan 10, turning ball over 19 times, but holding Hokies to 30.5% from field, 2-12 from arc. State's last three games were all decided by 5 or less points- they're 1-3 as ACC home favorite, winning home games by 33-14-14-3-5 points. Hokies are 1-3 as ACC underdog, 1-4 SU on road, losing away games by 3-2-4-16 points. ACC home favorites of 6+ points are 4-22-2 against the spread.

Michigan State (+6) won 63-60 in OT at Wisconsin Jan 3, Spartans had +11 edge on boards, held Badgers to 33% from floor, 5-22 from the arc- it was first road win in last 13 series games. Badgers lost last six visits to East Lansing, by 13-9-9-11-7-3 points. Big Dozen home favorites of 6 or less points are 9-13-1 against spread. Badgers won seven of last eight games, are 5-1 on Big Dozen road, losing by 18 at Michigan. State is 6-0 as Big Dozen home favorite, winning by 15-34-25-16-10-20 points.

Home teams won last 10 ULL-Denver games; Ragin Cajuns lost its last even visits here, by 7-12-2-19-4-16-13 points. Pioneers (-1) lost 72-71 in OT at UL-Lafayette Feb 2, outscored 22-14 on foul line. Pioneers are 3-2 as Sun Belt home favorite, winning by 17-13-14-15 points, losing to UALR. Five of Cajuns' last 12 went OT- they're 4-1 in those games, 4-2 SU on road- they won five of last six games overall. Sun Belt home faves of 7+ points are 7-14 against the spread.

Washington State (+9.5) lost 85-61 at Arizona Jan 26, shooting 34.6% for nite, while Wildcats made 15-26 behind arc. Coogs won three of four Pac-12 games in Pullman, with only loss to UCLA by 3- dogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in their conference home games. Arizona won last four games, is 5-3 as Pac-12 favorite; they're 4-2 on Pac-12 road, winning by 11-26-4-13 points, with losses at UCLA/Colorado. Pac-12 home underdogs of less than 5 points are 9-5 against the spread.

Vanderbilt won three in row, eight of last nine games vs Ole Miss, going 3-1 in last four visits here, winning by 12-15-4 points; Commodores lost four of last six SEC games, losing their last two road games, at Arkansas, Florida. Ole Miss is 4-1 at home in SEC, with only loss to Florida by 4. Rebels covered four of last five games as an underdog- they're 2-8 when playing teams ranked in top 100. SEC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 6-2 against the spread.

Road team is 8-2 vs spread in Duke's ACC games; Blue Devils are 1-4 as ACC home favorite, winning by 3-18-18 points, with losses to Miami, Florida State. Duke won nine of last ten games vs NC State, winning last five played here by 19-13-20-17-24 points. Wolfpack won its last three games; they're 4-1 on ACC road, 1-1 as road dogm with only loss by 19 at Chapel Hill. ACC double digit favorites are 5-17-1 vs spread, 4-12-1 at home. Tough part of State's schedule starts right here.

Boston College lost seven of last eight games, but they're 9-2 vs spread in conference play, 5-0 as road underdog, losing away games by 23-14-17-1-4 points. Maryland lost seven of last nine games with BC, losing both meetings by four points LY; Terps lost six of last eight games, are 1-0-1 as ACC favorite, 3-2 SU at home, with wins by 6-11-4 points and losses to Duke/North Carolina. ACC single digit home favorites are 3-15 against the spread.

Pittsburgh (+6.5) won 72-66 at West Virginia Jan 30, its fourth straight series win; Mountaineers lost their last six visits here, by 4-14-1-11-3-13 points. WVU lost five of last six games, with only win in OT against lowly Providence- they're 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Big East home favorites of less than 6 points are 12-10 against the spread. Pitt lost last two games to drop to 4-9 in Big East; they won/covered last three home games, winning by 12-12-9 points.

Stanford (+3.5) won an epic 103-101, four-OT game in Corvallis Jan 7, making 13-28 from arc but only 16-28 on foul line, in game Beavers led by 7 at half. Oregon State lost three of last four games; they're 1-3 as a Pac-12 road dog, losing away games by 15-5-8-10-22 point. Cardinal lost five of last seven games; they're 4-2 as Pac-12 home fave, winning at home by 1-8-3-20-24 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 7 or less points are 10-16-1 against the spread.

San Francisco (+15.5) lost 81-56 at BYU Jan 7, shooting 33% from floor while Cougars made 12-19 from arc; game was 42-20 at half. WCC home underdogs of 6 or less points are 3-6 against the spread. USF covered 9 of 10 games since BYU loss; they won last four home games, but against four worst teams in WCC. Dons covered last three games as underdogs. BYU won last three games by 10-19-38 points; they're 2-2 as road fave in WCC games, winning away games by 8-19-13-19 points.

Cal Bears (-3) won 77-60 in Eugene Jan 8, making 6-14 from arc, while holding Ducks to 38.3% from floor; Bears are 4-3 as Pac-12 home fave, winning home games by 4-16-7-36-10-21 points, with loss to Arizona. Oregon covered seven of nine as Pac-12 underdog; they're 4-1 as dog on road, losing conference road games by 1-16 points (4-2 SU). Bears gave up an average of 53 ppg in winning last three games. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 9-5 against the spread.

Santa Clara is 0-12 in WCC, 0-5 vs spread at home, losing home games in WCC by 13-16-12-13-5 points- they're 3-5 as WCC underdog, 0-2 at home. Broncos (+18) lost 82-60 at Gonzaga Jan 7, after trailing by hoop at the half. Zags won last three games by 12-14-19 points after losing at BYU; they're 0-5 vs spread on WCC road, 0-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 4-12-12 points, losing at St Mary's/BYU. WCC double digit home favorites are 9-13-1 against the spread.

Washington (-7) won 60-54 at Arizona State Jan 26, despite going 1-8 from arc in game they trailed by hoop at half; erratic Huskies are 5-2 as Pac-12 home favorite, winning home games by 15-16-10-13-2-28 points. Sun Devils are 1-5 as Pac-12 road dog, losing away games by 17-17-15-21-24-21 points. Pac-12 home favorites of 15+ points are 4-2 against the spread. ASU scored average of just 49.3 ppg in last four games. Huskies best not be looking ahead to Saturday's rematch with Arizona.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:30 PM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 16

Hot Teams
-- Bulls won six of last seven games, covered one of last five at home.
-- Clippers won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Nets lost their last seven games (0-6 vs spread in last six). Pacers lost six of their last seven games.
-- Celtics lost three of last four games, are 6-2 vs spread as a dog.
-- Blazers lost last three home games, allowing 112.7 ppg.

Wear and Tear
-- Nets: 2nd nite in row after three off. Pacers: 3rd nite in a row.
-- Celtics: 2nd nite in row after two off. Bulls: 3rd game/5 nites.
-- Clippers: 5th game/7 nites. Trailblazers: 3rd nite in row, 5th/7 nites.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine New Jersey games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Chicago games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Portland games went over the total.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 01:35 PM

NHL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 16

Hot teams
-- Rangers won their last four games, allowing seven goals.
-- Buffalo won its last three road games, allowing five goals.
-- St Louis won 10 of its last 12 home games. Islanders won six of their last seven road games.
-- Flames won three of their last four games.
-- Coyotes won five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Chicago lost its last nine games; they've lost 11 in a row on the road.
-- Flyers lost five of their last six games.
-- Sharks lost five of their last seven road games. Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games overall.
-- Winnipeg lost six of its last nine road games. Minnesota lost its last five in a row, scoring total of six goals.
-- Dallas Stars won four of their last five games.
-- Los Angeles is 1-8 in game after its last nine losses.

Totals
-- Under is 5-2-2 in Rangers' last nine home games.
-- Philly's last four games all went over the total.
-- Six of last seven San Jose games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in Winnipeg's last eight road games.
-- Six of last seven Islander rod games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Calgary games.
-- Last five Phoenix games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Chicago lost 3-2 in Madison Square Garden in LY's meeting.
-- Flyers won their last four games against Buffalo.
-- Sharks beat Tampa Bay 5-2/7-2 in their last two meetings.
-- Jets won four of their last five games against Minnesota.
-- Blues lost 5-2 on Long Island in LY's meeting.
-- Flames won their last four games against Dallas.
-- Kings won five of their last six games against Phoenix.

Back-to-Back
-- None.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-16-2012, 06:20 PM

Best Bets:

02/16/2012 @ 07:35 PM NBA [705] LA CLIPPERS -2 1.91

02/16/2012 @ 07:35 PM NBA [706] TOTAL u188½ 1.91
(LA CLIPPERS vrs PORTLAND)

02/16/2012 @ 04:00 PM CBB [708] FLORIDA STATE -9½ 1.91

02/16/2012 @ 04:00 PM CBB [710] MICHIGAN STATE -5½ 1.91

02/16/2012 @ 04:00 PM CBB [712] DENVER U -10½ 1.91

02/16/2012 @ 04:00 PM CBB [713] TOTAL o127 1.91
(FLORIDA INTL vrs ARKANSAS LR)

02/16/2012 @ 05:00 PM CBB [718] PENN STATE -2½ 1.91

02/16/2012 @ 06:00 PM CBB [730] TOTAL u149 1.91
(NC STATE vrs DUKE)

02/16/2012 @ 07:00 PM CBB [737] BYU -5 1.91

02/16/2012 @ 07:30 PM CBB [740] CALIFORNIA -11 1.91

**flashypants** · 02-16-2012, 06:28 PM

gl SDB

Announcement

Cnotes Thursday's NCAAB-NBA-NHL Best Bets !

Cnotes Thursday's NCAAB-NBA-NHL Best Bets !

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