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Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, February 14
Home side won last six Clemson-Virginia games, with three of last five games decided by 4 or less points; Cavaliers lost last three visits here, by 31-18-23 points. Virginia (-7) beat Tigers 65-61 in first meeting 14 days ago, shooting 55% despite forcing only four Clemson turnovers. ACC home teams are 3-10 against spread when number is less than 5 points. Dogs covered four of Clemson's five ACC home games- they're 0-3 as a home favorite. UVa is 0-3 vs Duke/UNC/FSU, 6-1 vs rest of ACC.
St John's lost three of last four games with Seton Hall, losing last two by 9-14 points; Red Storm lost last three games overall, by 25-22-10; they are 3-2-1 as Big East road underdog, losing away games by 14-19-15-10 points. Seton Hall won last two games, allowing 60 ppg, after losing last six games before that; Pirates are 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 19-12-21-7 points. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 12-14-1 vs spread.
Texas Tech (+10.5) lost 67-54 at Texas A&M Jan 14, turning ball over 23 times while shooting 33%; Red Raiders got first conference win last game- they're 1-4-1 as Big X home dog, losing home games by 13-35-24-22-17 points, before upsetting Oklahoma. Aggies lost last four games, are 0-6 on conference road, but are 3-1 vs spread as conference favorite, with all four of those games at home. Big X single digit home underdogs are 10-5-1 against the spread.
Kent State (+3) lost 66-65 at Buffalo in MAC opener Jan 7, outscored 18-8 on foul line, despite +7 (7-14) turnover ratio). Flashes won last six games after 2-3 start in MAC- they're 2-3 as MAC home favorite, with home wins by 4-5-34-5-21 points. MAC home teams are 13-8 vs spread when number is 5 or less points. Buffalo won its last eight games, with last two wins by total of six points; Bulls won last four games on road. Buffalo allowed average of 57.8 ppg in last six games.
Indiana State (+4.5) lost 67-54 at Illinois State Jan 18, shooting 32.3% in game, 6-25 from arc; Sycamores are 4-2 in last six games after 2-7 start in conference play- they're 2-3 as MVC home favorite, 5-2 SU, with home wins by 11-2-5-7-10 points. MVC home teams are 15-9 vs spread when number is 5 or less points. Redbirds are 2-4 as MVC road dog, losing its MVC road games (1-6 SU) by 15-3-17-8-28-15 points. Indiana State is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games.
TCU (+19) lost 101-78 at UNLV Jan 18; Rebels shot 58% for game, 11 of 21 from arc, but UNLV is 0-4 as MWC road favorite, with both wins on road in OT, at Boise/Air Force- they lost at San Diego St/Wyoming. Horned Frogs are 4-0 at home in conference, with underdogs covering all four games; TCU is 4-2 as a MWC underdog, but their last three losses are by 23-17-10 points. Mountain West home underdogs are 6-5 against spread. Four of last five UNLV games were decided by 5 or less points.
Creighton lost its last three gmes, needs to right ship to fortify resume for NCAA tourney; Bluejays (-14) beat Southern Illinois 90-71 at home in first meeting Jan 15, shooting 55% from floor and outscoring Salukis 28-11 at charity stripe. Creighton is 2-4 as MVC road favorite, but lost last two away games- their road wins are by 7-9-9-1-8 points. Salukis are 4-3 at home in Valley, 4-0 as home dog; their home losses were by 10-7-2 points. MVC home underdogs are 17-8 against the spread.
Milwaukee (+5.5) lost 83-57 at Cleveland State Jan 22, as Vikings shot 63.5% from floor, 7-13 from arc; Panthers lost six of last eight games after 6-1 start in Horizon play- they lost last two home games by 3-8 points, after winning first six conference home games. Vikings lost last two games, both at home, scoring 41-49 points after they had won eight of previous nine games. Horizon home teams are 10-6 when spread is 2 or less points. Cleveland State won last three on road by 20-18-28.
Texas is 11-0 this season against teams not in top 100. Oklahoma is 3-5 as Big X underdog, 2-1 at home; they're 2-4 SU in Big X home games, losing by 11-12-7-3 points- they lost last three at home. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Texas road games; Longhorns are 1-6 as Big X favorite, 0-2 on road- their 70-68 win at Texas A&M last game was Horns' first win in five conference road games. Big X home teams are 8-3-1 vs spread when number is 3 or less points.
George Mason lost 12 of last 15 games with VCU, losing to Rams three years in row in CAA tournament; Mason won here LY, after losing last five visits before that by 24-8-14-12-5 points. VCU won its last 11 in a row, winning last five road games, allowing 54.3 ppg in last three games. CAA home teams are 5-20-1 vs spread when number is 4 or less points. Mason won nine of last ten games; they're 8-0 at home in CAA, winning home games by 14-3-26-12-6-10-4-10 points.
Minnesota lost last four games with Ohio State, with three of four losses by 13+ points; Buckeyes' 82-69 win here LY was their first in last four visits to The Barn. Home teams won seven of last eight in series. Ohio State had 6-game win streak snapped at home by Michigan State in last game; Buckeyes are 3-2 as Big Dozen road favorite, winning by 29-34-6 points, with losses to Indiana/Illinois. Gophers are 3-3 as Big Dozen dog. Big Dozen single digit home underdogs are 15-8 against spread.
LSU (+8) lost 76-71 at Mississippi State Jan 25, despite making 11-21 from arc and being +8 (17-9) in turnovers; Bulldogs outscored them 23-8 on foul line. SEC home teams are 13-2 against the spread when number is 4 or less points. Tigers are 4-1 at home in SEC, losing to Kentucky by 24- they're 3-1 as a home favorite. Miss State is 1-3 on SEC road, with only win in OT at Vanderbilt; six of Bulldogs' last nine games were won by 5 or less points. MSU lost last game as 10-point home favorite.
Siena (+8.5) lost 72-53 at Manhattan Jan 14, a sloppy game where Siena shot 33% for game, 4-18 from arc. Saints are 5-2 at home in MAAC, 2-0 as home underdog; their home losses are by 7 to Loyola, 5 to St Peter's. Jaspers are 6-2 on MAAC road, losing by point at Loyola, at Fairfield by 6. Manhattan covered six of its last seven games as a favorite- they're 3-0 as a MAAC road favorite. MAAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 2-6 against the spread.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Tuesday, February 14
Home side won last six Clemson-Virginia games, with three of last five games decided by 4 or less points; Cavaliers lost last three visits here, by 31-18-23 points. Virginia (-7) beat Tigers 65-61 in first meeting 14 days ago, shooting 55% despite forcing only four Clemson turnovers. ACC home teams are 3-10 against spread when number is less than 5 points. Dogs covered four of Clemson's five ACC home games- they're 0-3 as a home favorite. UVa is 0-3 vs Duke/UNC/FSU, 6-1 vs rest of ACC.
St John's lost three of last four games with Seton Hall, losing last two by 9-14 points; Red Storm lost last three games overall, by 25-22-10; they are 3-2-1 as Big East road underdog, losing away games by 14-19-15-10 points. Seton Hall won last two games, allowing 60 ppg, after losing last six games before that; Pirates are 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 19-12-21-7 points. Big East home favorites of 9+ points are 12-14-1 vs spread.
Texas Tech (+10.5) lost 67-54 at Texas A&M Jan 14, turning ball over 23 times while shooting 33%; Red Raiders got first conference win last game- they're 1-4-1 as Big X home dog, losing home games by 13-35-24-22-17 points, before upsetting Oklahoma. Aggies lost last four games, are 0-6 on conference road, but are 3-1 vs spread as conference favorite, with all four of those games at home. Big X single digit home underdogs are 10-5-1 against the spread.
Kent State (+3) lost 66-65 at Buffalo in MAC opener Jan 7, outscored 18-8 on foul line, despite +7 (7-14) turnover ratio). Flashes won last six games after 2-3 start in MAC- they're 2-3 as MAC home favorite, with home wins by 4-5-34-5-21 points. MAC home teams are 13-8 vs spread when number is 5 or less points. Buffalo won its last eight games, with last two wins by total of six points; Bulls won last four games on road. Buffalo allowed average of 57.8 ppg in last six games.
Indiana State (+4.5) lost 67-54 at Illinois State Jan 18, shooting 32.3% in game, 6-25 from arc; Sycamores are 4-2 in last six games after 2-7 start in conference play- they're 2-3 as MVC home favorite, 5-2 SU, with home wins by 11-2-5-7-10 points. MVC home teams are 15-9 vs spread when number is 5 or less points. Redbirds are 2-4 as MVC road dog, losing its MVC road games (1-6 SU) by 15-3-17-8-28-15 points. Indiana State is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games.
TCU (+19) lost 101-78 at UNLV Jan 18; Rebels shot 58% for game, 11 of 21 from arc, but UNLV is 0-4 as MWC road favorite, with both wins on road in OT, at Boise/Air Force- they lost at San Diego St/Wyoming. Horned Frogs are 4-0 at home in conference, with underdogs covering all four games; TCU is 4-2 as a MWC underdog, but their last three losses are by 23-17-10 points. Mountain West home underdogs are 6-5 against spread. Four of last five UNLV games were decided by 5 or less points.
Creighton lost its last three gmes, needs to right ship to fortify resume for NCAA tourney; Bluejays (-14) beat Southern Illinois 90-71 at home in first meeting Jan 15, shooting 55% from floor and outscoring Salukis 28-11 at charity stripe. Creighton is 2-4 as MVC road favorite, but lost last two away games- their road wins are by 7-9-9-1-8 points. Salukis are 4-3 at home in Valley, 4-0 as home dog; their home losses were by 10-7-2 points. MVC home underdogs are 17-8 against the spread.
Milwaukee (+5.5) lost 83-57 at Cleveland State Jan 22, as Vikings shot 63.5% from floor, 7-13 from arc; Panthers lost six of last eight games after 6-1 start in Horizon play- they lost last two home games by 3-8 points, after winning first six conference home games. Vikings lost last two games, both at home, scoring 41-49 points after they had won eight of previous nine games. Horizon home teams are 10-6 when spread is 2 or less points. Cleveland State won last three on road by 20-18-28.
Texas is 11-0 this season against teams not in top 100. Oklahoma is 3-5 as Big X underdog, 2-1 at home; they're 2-4 SU in Big X home games, losing by 11-12-7-3 points- they lost last three at home. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Texas road games; Longhorns are 1-6 as Big X favorite, 0-2 on road- their 70-68 win at Texas A&M last game was Horns' first win in five conference road games. Big X home teams are 8-3-1 vs spread when number is 3 or less points.
George Mason lost 12 of last 15 games with VCU, losing to Rams three years in row in CAA tournament; Mason won here LY, after losing last five visits before that by 24-8-14-12-5 points. VCU won its last 11 in a row, winning last five road games, allowing 54.3 ppg in last three games. CAA home teams are 5-20-1 vs spread when number is 4 or less points. Mason won nine of last ten games; they're 8-0 at home in CAA, winning home games by 14-3-26-12-6-10-4-10 points.
Minnesota lost last four games with Ohio State, with three of four losses by 13+ points; Buckeyes' 82-69 win here LY was their first in last four visits to The Barn. Home teams won seven of last eight in series. Ohio State had 6-game win streak snapped at home by Michigan State in last game; Buckeyes are 3-2 as Big Dozen road favorite, winning by 29-34-6 points, with losses to Indiana/Illinois. Gophers are 3-3 as Big Dozen dog. Big Dozen single digit home underdogs are 15-8 against spread.
LSU (+8) lost 76-71 at Mississippi State Jan 25, despite making 11-21 from arc and being +8 (17-9) in turnovers; Bulldogs outscored them 23-8 on foul line. SEC home teams are 13-2 against the spread when number is 4 or less points. Tigers are 4-1 at home in SEC, losing to Kentucky by 24- they're 3-1 as a home favorite. Miss State is 1-3 on SEC road, with only win in OT at Vanderbilt; six of Bulldogs' last nine games were won by 5 or less points. MSU lost last game as 10-point home favorite.
Siena (+8.5) lost 72-53 at Manhattan Jan 14, a sloppy game where Siena shot 33% for game, 4-18 from arc. Saints are 5-2 at home in MAAC, 2-0 as home underdog; their home losses are by 7 to Loyola, 5 to St Peter's. Jaspers are 6-2 on MAAC road, losing by point at Loyola, at Fairfield by 6. Manhattan covered six of its last seven games as a favorite- they're 3-0 as a MAAC road favorite. MAAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 2-6 against the spread.
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