Pland's Sun Picks

[plandbill]

had a great Sat going 4-0, hope to complete a perfect weekend:

CBB:
Illinois +5 1/2 **
Purdue -6 1/2 *

Records as posted to date:
CBB-36-20(+26*'s)
NFL(FINAL)-63-50(+22*'s)
CFB(FINAL)-51-32(+25*'s)

GLTA

[Kaptain]

stay hot Bill.....nice day yesterday.....keep er going

[savage1]

Question:
Since you have demonstrated that you are very good at this and consistently so, would it be off limits to ask you how you arrive at your picks?
Do you use mostly stats., trends and angles, gut feelings, etc. and by what overall criterion do you use in general to decide which game or games to play in the first place?
If this is like asking a very good chef for a recipe for something he prepares that you really like and thus you would not rather answer, I certainly understand. lol

[flashypants]

gl pal

[plandbill]

Savage, thanks for nice words.

No exact formula, this has been a real good year, my best to date, I live in Indiana and I feel I watch and know more about Big 10, MVC and MAC ball, etc. Will tend to play what I see and feel I know. Read a lot about the teams in their home papers and on internet and watch a ton. So a big part, is that I tend to go for what I feel, see and think I know about teams. But also tend to be a contrarian bettor, try to bet what sharps are by looking at bet %'s on teams and looking at line movements. If more than 65% of bets are on a side but line is moving opposite that, I will go the contrarian side. I have a site that I look at this each day.

As for systems, I have one in CFB(takes 6 team stats and compares to other team's), that worked to tune of 71% this past year- generates 1 or 2 picks a week, have been trying to evolve it into a CBB system but have not tweaked it enough yet. Will get it there though, I feel.

So in all, combination of a few things, I mainly try to stay disciplined and keep # of pics down. My CFB system will generate 10-12 pics a week that show as plays but have had to limit the plays to the 1 or 2 top. Though last year, playing every pic this system shows as plays would have had a 61% sucess rate. The previous year , though all plays were only 52% correct, while the top 2 played out at 62% correct. Thus I decided to hold to top plays only 1 or 2 per week against this system.

Hope this did not talk in circles and answered your questions.

[jt4545]

Gl today

[Udog]

Savage, thanks for nice words.

No exact formula, this has been a real good year, my best to date, I live in Indiana and I feel I watch and know more about Big 10, MVC and MAC ball, etc. Will tend to play what I see and feel I know. Read a lot about the teams in their home papers and on internet and watch a ton. So a big part, is that I tend to go for what I feel, see and think I know about teams. But also tend to be a contrarian bettor, try to bet what sharps are by looking at bet %'s on teams and looking at line movements. If more than 65% of bets are on a side but line is moving opposite that, I will go the contrarian side. I have a site that I look at this each day.

As for systems, I have one in CFB(takes 6 team stats and compares to other team's), that worked to tune of 71% this past year- generates 1 or 2 picks a week, have been trying to evolve it into a CBB system but have not tweaked it enough yet. Will get it there though, I feel.

So in all, combination of a few things, I mainly try to stay disciplined and keep # of pics down. My CFB system will generate 10-12 pics a week that show as plays but have had to limit the plays to the 1 or 2 top. Though last year, playing every pic this system shows as plays would have had a 61% sucess rate. The previous year , though all plays were only 52% correct, while the top 2 played out at 62% correct. Thus I decided to hold to top plays only 1 or 2 per week against this system.

Hope this did not talk in circles and answered your questions.

Thank you, Pland! Good luck today!

Thanks to savage for asking!

[savage1]

Pland-no circles-imo a great explanation which tells me you do your homework and have a set and disciplined criterion you use in making your selections.
I certainly can't say the same about many of the so-called professional services many of whom imo will throw out anything along with the assorted bullshit and their falsified records to get some suckers and newbies to buy their picks.
Needless to say, keep em coming and best of luck!

[CheCheBoFumbe]

Congrats on yesterday, keep up the good work and thanks for sharing your picks with us.

[Sirporkie]

Gl