friday bowl games

[glt97]

5-1 bowl record

bowling green -6
bowling green over 54.5

virginia tech -2.5
good luck to all

[BiloxiUMreb]

BG despite line moves

Line Move ...Disprespect for MAC...Again
Agree with the concern on the line movement. The only explanation I can come up with is that, ONCE AGAIN, the public is showing its disdain for the MAC....Why? After the performances they've laid down, I don't have a clue. Here, though, is what I DO know. Against this years' bowl participants NW has been outscored 28-15. Their 15 PPG is 53rd best among the 56 bowl participants (only Auburn, GT, and NTSU were more impotent). BG was also outscored by its bowl bound opponents, but only by 29-24. BG outstatted its bowl competition 431-372, while NW went the other way 337-424. BG completed 61.6% of its passes and NW gave up 60.5% of the throws against it. Lastly, BG was 3-2 ATS in its five bowlbound foes while NW was 4-4. This is BG head coach's first bowl game as a head man (he did have two bowl trips as an assistant at NW) and bowl virgins are 11-3 ATS.

THE ONLY QUESTION IN MY MIND IS THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE EDGE TO NW...IT IS DRAMATIC. Although this could possibly explain the public's fascination with NW, its just not enough for me. I'm gonna take the line move as just an added edge on MY SIDE.

Oh yeah. One more thing. Common opponents were Purdue, Ohio St, and Miami. BG, by far, played each of these opponents much tougher than did NW. BG, in fact, beat Purdue while NW got waxed. In the losing efforts, BG's games much, much closer than NW's.

Just my thoughts...

[savage1]

No offense, but I believe that comparative scores, etc. are not really that significant after a long layoff, and that motivational factors, coaching and in general which teams really want to win/cover here based on this and other intangibles are what count.
Obviously, above is easier said than done. Personally, I lean toward BG and Cal. for reasons cited.

[BiloxiUMreb]

Savage

You'll find no arguement here. I, too, belive strongly in the motivational and intangibles in handicapping, particularly in bowl games. I try to do my capping roughly like this: Fundamentals (50%), M&I (40%) and techical angles (10%)...During the regular season I reduce somewhat the weight of the fundamentals and increase the technicals similarly, while I think the M&I is somewhat less inportant. I agree completely with you on the M&I when it comes to the bowls. I take a completely different approach in the NFL where M&I are THE most important factor...And, by the way, no offense taken. Different viewpoints are why they let us bet on these things...GL

[savage1]

Biloxi-Thanks for responding.
The only reason I mentioned it was before I smartened up, I use to look almost exclusively how teams did in regular season with NO emphasis at all to factors I mentioned;needless to say I had many losing bowl seasons.
I think at this point a lot of it is intutive based on watching many bowl games over the years.
To tell you the truth, I read folks like you and others to be sure that it doesn't become too intuitive on my part.
I will probably bet these games/over/unders today after I read more posts;I was merely stating me leans.