To: FrankB, re: NBA System

[hanx]

Frank,
I ran your NBA system in my database (take Under if home team lost by 20 or more on the road in its previous game).

Since 1990, those games have gone 'over' the total 391 times, and 'under' 379 times, not including today's Cleve/Orlando game.

Take care....Al McMordie, http://www.bigal.com

[hanx]

follow-up

Frank,

You also mentioned that the angle works better at -5 or higher. Indeed, it does...but it's not 70%. Since 1990, it's 131-112 at -5 or higher. But since the start of the 2000 season, this angle is 44-25 (63.7%) if the line is -5 or higher.

However, it has not worked over the long-term, so I personally wouldn't put any stock in it.

Take care....Al

[frankb03]

hanx, thanks for sharing the info. My data only dates back to the 1999 season. Although the game went over the total I was more impressed that the Magic were 1-13 OU after a 20 point road loss going into today's game.

To me it was a solid selection. The 1st half killed the play. I biggest fear came true. Two young teams in the national spot light wanted to put on a show. The 2nd half both teams played tougher defense.

Are you the real Al McMordie?

[frankb03]

Al, there were some additional guidelines to the system. It's not as simple as a home team off a road 20+ loss. It includes the home team has 2+ days of rest and is favored.

IMO, the system has lots of metit. it's far harder and more tiring to play defense than offense. Teams with rest are fresher. More willing to play defense especially after getting blown out. We hear it with every sport. Defense wins championships.

[hanx]

additional elements

Hi Frank,

if you add the Rest > 1 day and Pointspread parameters, then the 'Over' has won 152 times, and the 'Under' has won 162 times since 1990, going into today.

Since the start of the 1999-2000 season, the mark is 52 'overs' and 57 'unders'.

From the start of the 1999 season, when the home team has been favored by -5 or more, then the 'under' has cashed 41 of 67 (61%) with the rest and pointspread elements added.....so there's not much difference from the results posted earlier today....al

[frankb03]

Al, since 1999 Home favorites off 20+ road loss with 2 or more days rest 16-25 OU 61%. If the home team is favored by 5 or more 9-20 OU 69%.

These stats only include regular season. They don't include playoff. I believe the playoffs are a different beast.

[hanx]

your numbers

Hi Frank,
From what source are you deriving your data?

Thanks....Al

[casheasy]

Big Al, I really enjoy watching you on Root's show. But it was better when you, Randy, Chet and the guys were all on the main set together. I'm sure you agree, and there's not much you can do when the CEO says this new way is the way to go. Just letting you know there are some guys that like watching you people on Saturday mornings. Good luck this bowl season.

[frankb03]

cash, I agree. I enjoy watching Al on Root's show but I fucking hate Wayne Root. He's such a fucking phony piece of shit. I usually record the show on my TIVO and only watch the segment with Al.

Wayne had is GOY on the Browns Monday night game against the Rams. I get the lines from over a dozen books. Not one that night had the Browns +6. On his show the next week he mentioned his GOY was a push but didn't have the balls to mention what team was his selection. I'm sure Wayne didn't want Al on the panel because he didn't want to be out done week to week.

[savage1]

Before I stopped watching those silly self-promoting shows on Saturday morning a long time, the one thing I rememeber about Wayne Root were his continually throwing his arms up in the air like a wildman to try to make a point;does he still do that?
I don't know who taught him public speaking etiquette but I found that arm flailing a real distraction from what he was trying to say.