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**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:05 PM

Harvard And Yale Highlight Friday Hoops Schedule

Mention of Harvard and Yale getting together generally conjures up images of a crisp New England autumn afternoon with the Crimson and Bulldogs battling it out on the gridiron. Friday night, however, it's their hoops teams that grab the spotlight on a short college basketball betting schedule.

Harvard, the only ranked team from either poll in action Friday, will make the short trek from Boston to New Haven to meet Yale in a matchup of Ivy League co-leaders. Both teams are 2-0 in conference games, and each won their games by taking out two of the Ivy League bottom feeders twice. The Bulldogs toppled Brown to gain their two conference wins, covering one of the triumphs, while the Crimson recorded the same results against Dartmouth.

Tommy Amaker and Harvard have their sights set on an NCAA Tournament appearance this March. The Crimson were denied that trip last year when they fell to Princeton on a buzzer-beater in what amounted to a one-game playoff after both squads finished the regular season tied with 12-2 Ivy League marks. That loss came on this very floor, with Yale's John Lee Amphitheater chosen as the neutral site for the game. The setback meant Harvard needed an at-large invite to the tournament, an invite that never came to extend their March Madness drought to 65 years and counting.

A big reason why Harvard was forced into that playoff was another defeat at this gym a couple of weeks earlier when a late bucket helped Yale to a 70-69 upset over the Crimson. So in addition to the normal Harvard-Yale rivalry, the Crimson come into this matchup with what amounts to double-revenge with the Bulldogs' home court on their mind.

Harvard enters this one on a four-game win streak, and the last four games with a total each went 'under' with the Crimson 10-3 to the low side for the season. Yale is also riding a four-game string of victories with the last two going 'under.'

MAAC Leaders Take To The Highway

The bulk of Friday's action involves teams from the MAAC, including the trio tied for the conference lead playing on the road. The Iona Gaels, Loyola (MD) Greyhounds and Manhattan Jaspers all have identical 7-2 records in league contests, and it's Iona who will face the toughest opponent on Friday when the Gaels are at Fairfield.

Iona's trip to face the Stags marks the middle of a three-game road trip that began this past Monday with a 65-62 loss at Siena as a 10-point favorite. Fairfield is 5-3 in MAAC play and has won five straight at home vs. Iona since the Gaels last won here in Feb. 2006. This will be a matchup between Fairfield's defense, tops in the MAAC allowing just 62.4 points per game, against an Iona offense that is third in the country scoring at an 83.7 clip.

Loyola will be at Niagara and looking for a little revenge from a 66-61 loss to the Purple Eagles on Jan. 2. The Greyhounds were laying 12 at home to Niagara, and fell apart in the final few minutes when the Eagles closed the game on a 9-0 run.

Manhattan takes a five-game win streak to Canisius, and the Jaspers have been the most consistent team in the league from a betting standpoint. They saw a five-game ATS win streak snapped last Sunday in a 71-64 home win over Niagara who was getting 8½, and the last six Jaspers contests have stayed 'under' the total.

Crimson Not The Only Ballin' Bunch In Boston

Harvard isn't the only school in Boston making some noise on the Hardwood. Boston University has completely turned around its poor start, and the Terriers are on a seven-game win streak as they head to Stony Brook for an America East showdown with the Seawolves. Both teams are 7-1 in conference action, Stony Brook's lone defeat at BU nearly two weeks ago.

Boston University lost its first AEC game at Vermont on Jan. 5, a defeat that dropped the Terriers to 4-11 on the campaign. They've since won the last seven to pull even with an 11-11 overall record. Meanwhile, Stony Brook has responded with three wins since the 61-55 loss at the Terriers who got off to an early 12-point lead in that game.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:09 PM

Big Ten Report

January 26, 2012

Each week we will take an inside look at the pulse of College Basketball around the Big Ten and other schools around the Midwest. We will highlight certain trends, hot streaks, cold streaks, and injury updates. A number of things caught our attention as professional handicappers this week. We’d like to share some…
Big Ten

Illinois Fighting Illini: As expected, the Illini suffered a letdown after a huge win over highly ranked Ohio State two weeks ago. First they shot just 34.7% and scored 52 points in a loss at lowly Penn State. Then they dropped their first home game of the season against Wisconsin on Sunday. Center Meyers Leonard (ankle) and guard DJ Richardson are both dealing with injuries right now yet neither is expected to miss any time. Leonard and Richardson combine to average 26.2 points per game and 11.2 rebounds per game and Illinois could really use them at full strength down the stretch.

Minnesota Gophers: The Gophers are climbing their way back into the upper-echelon of the Big Ten with three straight victories (3-0 ATS) after dropping their first four Big Ten conference games. Minnesota has made 52.6% field goals during the three-game win streak while holding opponents to just 35.3%.

Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has dropped six of its last eight games and is just 3-6 ATS over its last nine overall. The Wildcats are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road in the Big Ten and they’ve lost all four of those games by an average of 19.5 points per game (three of four losses by 20+ points). Northwestern is converting on just 38.8% of its field goals and allowing opponents to shoot 46.6% in those four games.

Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State has dropped six of eight conference games so far including three of the last four by double digits. It’s only going to get tougher as PSU recently lost reserve guard Trey Lewis for an indefinite amount of time and forward Billy Oliver has missed the last two games with an illness and it’s uncertain when he will return. The Lions weren’t a deep team to begin with and now their bench is even thinner. PSU could struggle as the next four games on its schedule are; at Ohio State, home vs. Wisconsin, at Iowa, and at Michigan State.

Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue lost another home game on Tuesday against Michigan. The Boilers have now dropped four of the last six games and is 1-5 ATS over that span. They are ninth in the Big Ten in shooting percentage at just 43.7% and last in the Big Ten in free throw percentage at just 63.2%.

Wisconsin Badgers: After losing three straight Big Ten games it looked as though the Badgers would be out of the running for the Big Ten title. Since then, however, Wisco has won four straight games and is back up to fourth place, just a game behind Michigan (3-1 ATS). The Badgers have held the last four opponents to just 38.6% field goals and 30% three-pointers and have also made 59 free throws while opponents have attempted just 58.

News & Notes from other teams around the Midwest

Cleveland State Vikings: The Vikings are tied with Valparaiso atop the Horizon league standings. Starting Saturday, Cleveland State starts a three-game road trip over an eight day span. The Vikes will be favored in each of the three road games as they’re playing teams with a combined record of 22-35. However, they are just 1-5 ATS as a favorite away from home this season.

Dayton Flyers: Dayton continues its ascension up the Atlantic 10 standings despite being without its best player for the past month. Since center Josh Benson was injured, the Flyers are 4-1 SU & ATS. Their offensive philosophy has changed as the Flyers are now using a more up-tempo approach – very successfully. In 14 games with Benson, the Flyers averaged 68.5 points per game and in five games without him, they’re averaging 81 PPG.

Iowa State Cyclones: Iowa State continues to be a valuable team against the spread. The Cyclones have covered five of seven Big 12 games and own a 4-1 ATS mark as an underdog. They have a key pair of games coming up with home dates against Kansas and Kansas State which will determine if ISU is a real contender for a tournament bid. Expect a huge effort from the Cyclones.

Kansas Jayhawks: Be weary of Kansas. The Jayhawks have won 10 straight games dating back to mid-December, but they are getting overvalued by the oddsmakers. They’ve failed to cover three of their last four games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit favorite.

Kansas State Wildcats: Forward Jordan Henriquez has been suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team. The 6’11” Henriquez averaged 7.1 points and 5.1 rebounds and led the team in blocks.

Marquette Golden Eagles: Marquette has won five games in a row and is 6-1 ATS over its last seven overall. Four of the Golden Eagles’ last five wins have been at home by an average of 13.8 points per game. They’ve found a nice inside presence lately as sophomore forward Davante Gardner has stepped up nicely over the last five games, averaging 13.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game (averaged just 8.8 PPG and 5.0 RPG over first 16 games).

Missouri Tigers: The Tigers proved their ultimate legitimacy after losing its first and only game in blowout fashion at Kansas State back on January 7th. Since then they’ve won four straight games (4-0 ATS) including a big road win at Baylor last Saturday. All the talk about Missouri focuses on their guards, but forward Ricardo Ratliffe is averaging 21.6 points per game over the last three games. The 6-8 senior had 27 points and eight rebounds in the Tigers' win at Baylor on Saturday and is shooting 77.2 percent on the season!

Murray State Racers: Murray State is now 20-0 and the last remaining undefeated team in the nation. The pressure of the record seems to be weighing on the Racers, however, as they are just 1-4-1 ATS the last six games. They are about to get some good news as coach Steve Prohm says forward Ivan Aska (hand injury) has been cleared to play. The team’s second leading scorer will be a welcome addition.

Wright State Raiders: Wright State is not a strong offensive team. The Raiders rank at or near the bottom of every major offensive category including 332nd in points and 323rd in field goal percentage. Now, their only player that averages double-figures has been unable to practice for the past week because of a calf injury and is questionable heading into Wednesday’s game against Illinois-Chicago.

ATS Tidbits

Bradley is just 1-12 its last 13 games, but 3-0 its last three as a home ‘dog
Evansville is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games
Indiana State is 0-7 ATS its last seven games
Missouri State is 6-3 ATS its last nine and 4-0 ATS its last four as a ‘dog
Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS its last seven games
Wichita State is on a 4-0 ATS run

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:12 PM

Weekend Preview

January 27, 2012

It should be a banner NCAA basketball betting weekend at Bovada because it's the first weekend that is free of NFL games, other than Sunday evening's inconsequential Pro Bowl, since August, and even the NHL schedule is dark this weekend except for its All-Star Game on Sunday as well.

Friday night, as usual, is quiet on the NCAA front with only one ranked team in action: No. 23 Harvard at Yale. There are rarely any BCS conference games scheduled for Fridays - somewhat in deference to high school basketball, much like there is usually only a game or two scheduled for Fridays in college football. Friday does offer bettors a chance to wager on one of the best ATS teams in the nation when Manhattan (14-5 ATS) visits Canisius. Only Middle Tennessee State has more ATS wins.

The action cranks up on Saturday with all but a few Top-25 teams in action and four games available via live play-by-play betting at Bovada.

It starts at 1 p.m. ET when Texas visits No. 7 Baylor on CBS. The Bears are having one of the best seasons in school history but have lost two of their past three. At 13-7 overall, Texas is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament if the Horns don't start winning soon. Texas is one of the worst major conference teams in the nation against the spread at 5-10.

Another Big 12 matchup also will have live betting: No. 5 Kansas at Iowa State at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Jayhawks were supposed to be rebuilding somewhat this season but are in position to win their eighth straight Big 12 title as the only unbeaten in conference play and with a two-game lead over Baylor and Missouri. KU enters on a 10-game winning streak, but this could be a trap game. Iowa State is 0-3 vs. ranked teams this year but has hung close in all three. That includes an 82-73 loss at Kansas a few weeks ago in which ISU led by 3 at halftime. Iowa State hasn't beaten Kansas since February 2005, however.

Next on the live betting schedule is a Big East matchup as No. 10 Georgetown visits Pittsburgh at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Panthers were as high as No. 11 at one point this season in the polls but are at the bottom of the Big East with Providence at 1-7 in conference play. And the only reason Pitt isn't alone in the cellar is it beat the Friars 86-74 on Wednesday to end an eight-game losing streak. Pittsburgh used to be unbeatable at home, losing just 12 times in its first nine seasons at the Petersen Events Center. The Panthers have four straight on their home floor this season.

Finally, the live betting Saturday concludes with Washington at Arizona in Pac-12 action at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Pac-12 could become the first BCS conference to get only one team in the NCAA Tournament, and these two teams have been a big part of the disappointing conference. Pac-12 teams often play the most rugged schedules in a way because they usually play Thursdays and Saturdays.

On Sunday, there is one NCAA game scheduled for live betting: No. 22 Michigan at No. 3 Ohio State at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The Wolverines have been punching bags of late against their archrivals in the two main betting sports: college football and basketball. But Michigan ended a seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes in football back in November. The UM basketball team lost three times to OSU last year and has dropped 14 of the past 16 in this series, but this is the best Michigan team in that stretch. However, the Buckeyes have won 37 straight at home, the nation's second-longest streak.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:15 PM

ATS Report -- Good & Bad

January 27, 2012

A month has passed on the young NBA season and we’ll take a look at a few surprises and disappointments so far. More importantly, we’ll identify clubs that have been good and bad against the spread (ATS) as well.

Flying Under the Radar

Minnesota Timberwolves (11-7 ATS)

Don’t let their 8-10 record fool you, these guys are young and hungry and they’ve been dealing with a Michael Beasley injury. Kevin Love might be the best shooting forward in the league and rookie point guard Ricky Rubio is proving all his doubters wrong. Rubio is averaging 11 points and 9 assists a game, and the kid is still adjusting to the tempo of the NBA. Kevin Love has been on fire, averaging 25 points and nearly 14 boards a game. Minnesota has had impressive wins this year over the Spurs, at LA Clippers, and two victories against the defending champions Dallas Mavericks. With Rick Adelman coming in as head coach, this team could easily grow as the season progresses and they could make a run at a playoff spot, just give them some time and look out for these Wolves. Keep an eye on Minnesota when on the road (6-2 ATS).

Denver Nuggets (13-5 ATS)

Maybe not flying as low as Minnesota, but these Nuggets are for real and they can hang with anybody in the league. After Carmelo Anthony left for Broadway last season a lot of bettors wrote off Denver. Too bad for them! It’s an example of a classic knee jerk reaction by the public to fade a team losing a star player. Denver went on a TEAR, going 18-7 overall and 20-4-1 ATS for the remainder of the season. They’ve picked right where they left off last year, going 13-5 overall and ATS. The trade could have been Carmelo for Danilo Gallinari straight up and Denver still got the better deal by freeing up cap space. The Nuggets got rid of everyone else in that trade except for center Timofey Mozgov, they knew where the talent was. I don’t know how head coach George Karl does it but he’s always got a team that can compete with the best of them so don’t make the mistake of undervaluing this Denver team. The Nuggets own the best ATS record (8-2) on the road this sesaon

Disappointments

New York Knicks (4-14 ATS)

Disappointment could be an understatement for the New York Knicks this year. They have, despite their 7-11 record, literally two wins this year, Boston in their home opener and a six-point home win over Philadelphia. Other than that, they have beat absolute nobodies and they’ve suffered losses to some of the bottom feeders of the league in Cleveland, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Charlotte, Golden State and Toronto. I thought it was interesting in comparing what the Nuggets and Knicks have both done since the Carmelo trade: Denver has gone 33-9-1 ATS compared to the Knicks going 17-29 ATS. Last year Denver went 20-4-1 ATS matched to Knicks going 13-15 ATS. This team looks lost and they’re struggling to find their identity.

For the first time ever a Mike D’Antoni team looks boring to watch and his seat has got be getting pretty hot at Madison Square Garden. You know the impatience of New Yorkers and they’re not gonna casually sit by and watch this Knicks team become a dumpster fire. Amare Stoudemire has been in trade rumors now for Orlando’s Dwight Howard and this Carmelo experiment hasn’t been longer than a year and you can already hear the rumblings for change. With Boston down and the possible dismembering of the Orlando Magic, New Yorkers had high hopes for their squad this year. As of right now, they’re a laughing stock and if they don’t quickly turn things around you know it’s only a matter of time before we see some more changes to this Knicks team. Fading New York (1-8 ATS) at MSG has been golden this season.

Los Angeles Lakers (8-11 ATS)

While not nearly as disappointing as the Knicks, the Lakers have looked old and slow to start the year. Everyone questioned the hiring of former Cleveland coach Mike Brown when Phil Jackson stepped down. “Flo” from the Bingo hall would be considered an elite coach if she had LeBron James playing for her. The verdict is still out on Brown. The problem with the Lakers is All-Star Kobe Bryant is no longer as dominate as LeBron and he simply can’t carry the weight of the team as he’s done in the past. The Lakers know they missed out BIG on point guard Chris Paul and the Dwight Howard rumors have gone away. Until these guys pull the trigger on a BIG name I just don’t see them being of relevance this year. Despite beating their neighbor this past week, it’s safe to say they’re not even the best team in LA anymore. The Clippers have taken that title, and they’re young and only getting better. This Lakers team may have peaked a few years ago and I think they’ll continue to be a fade play this year, especially on the road (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS).

**Kaptain** · 01-27-2012, 06:17 PM

gl whichever way you go tonight BUM.......take care

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:18 PM

Hoop Trends - Friday

January 27, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bobcats are 12-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since February 13, 2008 with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Jazz are 10-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since January 23, 2005 on the road after a home loss in which their DPS was positive.

USER TREND:

The league is 1-21 Under at home with total 190 or more after playing the Knicks:

CHOICE TOP TREND:

The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since April 04, 2010 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:20 PM

Friday's Tip Sheet

January 27, 2012

Friday features nearly a full slate of action in the NBA, with 26 of the 30 teams in the league set to hit the hardwood. All but one (Boston) are playing on at least one full day of rest – something that hasn’t happened too often in this cramped version of 2011-12 NBA campaign.
Below is a breakdown of two key notable matchups from a bettor’s perspective:

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls

If nothing else, the Bucks come into the United Center knowing that the Bulls are not totally invincible on their home floor. Wednesday night, the Indiana Pacers became the first visiting team out of nine to beat the Bulls (95-90) and in the process, give other teams in the league the confidence to know it can be done!

Win, lose or cover?

The Bucks have won three consecutive road games straight up and in that span generated a perfect 3-0 record against the spread – beating New York, Miami and Houston. Overall, the Bucks won/loss and ATS records are an identical match, standing at three games under the .500 mark (7-10), but they have managed to cover four of seven on the road.

The Bulls have mounted a 16-4 record through their first 20 games this season and certainly look like a team with one goal in mind… representing the Eastern Conference in NBA Finals. Their stellar production is attributed on the defensive side of the ball – leading the league in rebounds (45.2 per game) and building a reputation as the stingiest in the league to give up points, at fewer than 86.5 per game. Their ATS record isn’t quite as elite, but nonetheless, it is a very respectable 12-8 (60%).

The numbers are stacked too high against the Bucks to come away with a victory or even a point-spread cover in this matchup. They have only notched one straight up win versus the Bulls in Chicago out of their last 11 tries and have only covered two of its last six games when they play at the United Center.

Look for the Bucks three-game road winning streak to come to an abrupt end tonight, as they will be over-powered on both sides of the ball.

Injury Notes: The Bucks will be without center, Andrew Bogut, as he sprained his left ankle this past Wednesday during the first quarter against the Rockets.

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

The Knicks take their talent to South Beach, but with a 7-11 record, the expectations for this battle fall well short of what we all anticipated prior to the start of the season. On the other side, Miami is living up to its end, producing a 13-5 record – good enough for tops in the Southeast Division.

Win, lose or cover?

The Knicks own a terrible 4-14 record against the spread – easily ranking dead last in the league. They have lost their last seven of eight straight up and against the spread and three of their last four on the road. Simply put, the Knicks just aren’t getting the job done and have been a tough team to invest money in thus far.

The Heat have been winning as of late, producing five victories in the last six games. However, they are falling well short against the spread, covering only three games in their last nine outings, but they are above the .500 mark (ATS) at home… albeit a very modest 5-4 record.

Although pro teams shouldn’t be affected from “looking ahead” to future matchups, I am sure Miami can’t help but to have their sights set on the Bulls this upcoming Sunday; which may have them taking the Knicks and their poor performance a bit lightly. Add to this, they are probably going to be without guard Dwyane Wade (see notes) and you have the makings of an upset, with the Knicks FINALLY getting it done with a point-spread cover on the road against the Heat.

Injury Notes: Dwyane Wade has been absent from the lineup for the past six games with a sprained right ankle, sore left foot and a strained calf muscle. His presence for this matchup is still in doubt. Miami is 8-1 SU this season without Wade. The Knicks' Carmelo Anthony (wrist) has been ruled 'out' for this contest and tomorrow's game against Houston as well.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:24 PM

Red-hot Thunder visit Golden State Friday

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (15-3)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (6-11)

Tip-off: Friday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -4.5, Total: 198

The best team in the Western Conference, Oklahoma City, looks to win its 11th game in 12 tries when it visits a Golden State team entering game four of a six-game homestand.

Most NBA teams have nightmares about guarding Thunder star SF Kevin Durant, but not many have the same anxiety Golden State does. In the past three seasons (11 games), Durant has lit up the Warriors for 33.0 PPG on 50% FG (42% threes). There’s no reason to think he won’t do it again, considering Golden State has the league’s fifth-worst scoring defense (98.5 PPG). The Warriors are 4-10 SU in their past 14 games and have dropped six of seven versus Western Conference opponents. The Thunder (7-2 ATS in past nine games) are 10-2 against the West, scoring 100.3 PPG in these dozen contests. They should also dominate the boards considering Golden State has the fourth-worst rebounding margin in the NBA (minus-3.2 RPG). The pick here is OKLAHOMA CITY to win and cover.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend siding with the Thunder:

Play On - Road favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. (64-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*).

The Over is 7-2 in the past nine Golden State games, and this FoxSheets trend also expects the OVER to occur on Friday.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. (60-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +30.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The Thunder won their third straight game Wednesday, 101-91 over New Orleans. Durant (25.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) had 25 points, marking his eighth straight 20-point game. He’s shooting 53% FG during this stretch, but only 23% on three-pointers (8-for-35). PG Russell Westbrook (20.4 PPG) continues to struggle this season. He had a subpar outing against the Hornets, making just 4-of-14 shots and committing seven turnovers. His assists (5.6 APG) are way down from last year’s 8.2 APG. Westbrook also shot poorly against Golden State last season (31% FG), but dished out 27 assists in the three meetings. SG James Harden (16.8 PPG) is the other big scorer on the team with 42 points on 12-of-16 shooting in his past two games. PF Serge Ibaka (6.4 RPG, 2.6 BPG) should also have a strong game against the weak interior of Golden State.

The Warriors ended their three-game skid with an impressive 101-93 win over Portland on Wednesday. PG Stephen Curry, who had been 13-of-33 shooting in two games following his return from an ankle injury, scored a season-high 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting (6-of-8 on threes) against the Blazers. Curry has torched the Thunder in his two NBA seasons, averaging 25.9 PPG on 59% FG (54% threes). Last year Curry averaged 32.3 PPG (61% FG, 55% 3-pt FG) in the three meetings with Oklahoma City. SG Monta Ellis (21.9 PPG, 7.2 APG) is looking to bounce back from a horrible shooting night against the Blazers. He scored a season-low four points on 2-of-9 FG, but he did dish out 12 assists while committing only two turnovers. Ellis’ shooting accuracy may not improve on Friday considering he has made just 40.9% FG against the Thunder in the past two seasons. PF David Lee (18.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG) scored 26 points in the win over Portland, but grabbed just five rebounds. He’ll have to be much more of a presence on the glass for Golden State to be successful.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:25 PM

Bulls favored big over Bogut-less Bucks

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (7-10)

at CHICAGO BULLS (16-4)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -11.5, Total: 185

The team with the NBA’s most wins takes the floor at the United Center when the Chicago Bulls play host to the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night.

This is a game that will largely be shaped by who is not on the floor. Milwaukee’s best post player and defender Andrew Bogut (11.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) will be out for a long time after fracturing his left ankle. For the Bulls, Luol Deng (15.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG) will likely be out of commission for this game with a wrist injury that will require surgery at some point down the road. The exciting part about this game will be watching the showdown between dynamic guards Desmond Jennings (20.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Derrick Rose (21.1 PPG, 8.3 APG). Jennings has been playing particularly well lately, averaging 26.0 PPG over the Bucks past five contests, in which they have gone 3-2 SU and ATS. The most encouraging betting statistic that favors Milwaukee in this game is playing on one day of rest. In those games, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS. Expecting them to win SU in this game is a bit much, but they have a great chance to cover in this contest as heavy underdogs. Play on MILWAUKEE for the ATS win.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also favors the Bucks on Friday:

Play Against - Home teams (CHICAGO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (61-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.3%, +26.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Jennings is a workhorse for the Bucks, playing 36.1 MPG and shouldering the primary scoring and ball-handling duties. Stephen Jackson (13.0 PPG) is the team’s second leading scorer but is wildly inconsistent. He scored 20 points in the team’s upset win over Houston on Wednesday, but zero points in 28 minutes against the Hawks the game prior to that. The main name to watch on Friday night for Milwaukee though, is Ersan Ilyasova (7.8 PPG, 7.4 APG). He has proven in his 22.4 MPG that he has the potential to develop into a solid contributor and will be thrust into a more prominent role for the rest of the season without Bogut. Look for him to have a potential breakout stretch coming up.

Although the Bulls will be without their player who spends the most time on the court, Deng (38.3 MPG), Rose (37.0 MPG) is the most integral part of the team’s offense. Like Jennings, he holds the burden of needing to be the team’s passer and scorer, something Rose has embraced in his NBA career. Without Bogut playing for the Bucks, the way for Chicago to cover is to have a strong night from its interior. Carlos Boozer (15.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG) will have the best chance for that as the Bulls’ best post player. Joakim Noah (7.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) is also a great rebounder, and could have the opportunity to pull down a double-double in this game. Play against Chicago though, as a heavy favorite.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:26 PM

Anthony not expected to play Friday in Miami

NEW YORK KNICKS (7-11)

at MIAMI HEAT (13-5)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -10, Total: 198.5

The Knicks are off to another disappointing start, but they still have a chance to win a third straight game over the Heat when the teams meet in Miami on Friday night.

These teams played in South Beach last February, just days after the Knicks’ blockbuster trade to acquire Carmelo Anthony. Anthony scored 29 in the 91-86 New York victory that night. But this year’s Knicks are struggling, and Anthony (wrist, ankle) will be sidelined on Friday night. With no starting-caliber point guard on their roster, and their most dynamic scorer out of the lineup, New York stands little chance in this one. MIAMI is the pick to win and cover, and this stat from The FoxSheets illustrates just how bad a bet the Knicks have been this year:

NEW YORK is 4-14 ATS (22.2%, -11.4 Units) in all games this season. The average score was NEW YORK 94.5, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Anthony (23.6 PPG on 39.4% shooting, 6.9 RPG) is having his worst season, but New York still has few good alternatives on the offensive end. Fellow All-Star F Amar’e Stoudemire (17.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG) has been equally shaky, averaging just 14.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting during an eight-game stretch in which the Knicks have gone 1-7 (SU and ATS). Rookie PG Iman Shumpert (11.3 PPG, 3.4 APG), who played to rave reviews early in the season, has been atrocious during that stretch, averaging 10.3 PPG on 32.6% shooting with nearly as many turnovers (2.9 per game) as assists (3.3). Bill Walker (5.2 PPG) figures to slide into Anthony’s starting spot. He’s 2-for-9 from the field for seven points through the first two games of New York’s road trip.

The Heat are coming off back-to-back SU wins over inferior opponents, but failed to cover the spread against Cleveland or in Detroit. SG Dwyane Wade (19.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) has missed six straight games with an ankle injury, but after reportedly looking 100% healthy in Wednesday’s shoot-around in Detroit (he was held out of that game as a precaution) he seems to have a very good chance to return on Friday. However, the Heat are just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS with Wade in the lineup this season.

LeBron James (29.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 7.1 APG) has had plenty of big nights against the Knicks. Over the past two seasons, he averaged 29.0 PPG on 51.7% shooting, 8.9 RPG and 7.4 APG against New York. PF Chris Bosh (21.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has come on very strong of late, averaging 26.7 PPG on 62.9% shooting over Miami’s past six games.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:29 PM

Dallas continues homestand Friday vs. Jazz

UTAH JAZZ (10-6)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (11-8)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -4.5, Total: 183.5

The Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks are both looking to rebound from losses when they take the floor on Friday night at the American Airlines Center in Dallas.

Dallas has owned the series with the Jazz in recent memory. The Mavericks are 7-2 (SU and ATS) in the past nine meetings, including five straight wins (SU and ATS). Dallas has been a strong bet this year overall (12-7 ATS) and especially at home (7-3 ATS). The Mavs’ success is based on their relentless defense that allows just 89.2 PPG, fourth best in the NBA. They smother opposing team’s guards with 9.7 SPG, the third best mark in the league. This could create problems for the Jazz, who do not have an elite ball handler and could be without their leading scorer and rebounder, C Al Jefferson (18.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG) who is a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Although the Mavericks will likewise be without their top player, Dirk Nowitzki (17.5 PPG), they have managed to go 2-1 without him. Play on DALLAS at home to win and cover.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also favors the Mavericks on Friday:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games. (51-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.9%, +26.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Make sure to watch the injury reports leading up to this game. Jefferson is a game-time decision, as is SG Raja Bell (knee).

Utah beats teams with an intimidating frontcourt, led by Jefferson (9.4 RPG) and Paul Millsap (17.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG). Neither are shutdown threats defensively, but the Jazz offense flows through them as the only two players on the team to average more than 27 MPG. Their skills on the boards have pushed Utah to being the fifth-best rebounding team in the NBA with a +2.3 RPG margin. Overall, the Jazz’s weakness is in the backcourt where they lack true scoring threats and ball handlers. Gordon Hayward (8.0 PPG) has potential as a shooting guard, but he is shooting a dismal 38% FG (23% threes). However, the real issue is with point guards Devin Harris (9.1 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Earl Watson (4.1 PPG, 4.8 APG). Both are serviceable at distributing the basketball, but neither player has shown a three-point acumen, shooting 32% and 19%, respectively from behind the arc. Look for them to have difficulties with Dallas’s defense and play against here.

Dallas relies on Nowitzki for its main source of offensive production, but other players have shown they can step up without him. SG Jason Terry (13.9 PPG) notched a team-high 17 points in the Mavericks’ loss to the Timberwolves on Wednesday, and is one of five players on the team who averages more than one steal per game. Leading that category is PG Jason Kidd (1.7 SPG) who is no longer a threat to score (4.3 PPG) but still runs the Dallas offense reasonably well as the team’s primary distributor (5.5 APG). These games without Nowitzki should also be a test for if Lamar Odom (7.7 PPG), who is having easily the worst season of his career shooting 32.9% from the field. After three straight double-digit scoring efforts, Odom was a miserable 2-of-14 shooting against Minnesota. Play on Dallas as home favorites for this win.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:48 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, January 27

Dartmouth lost five in row, eight of last nine games with Brown, losing last six visits here by 3-20-26-10-15-24 points; seven of Brown's last eight series wins are by 9+ points. Big Green lost seven of its last eight games; they're 2-1 against teams ranked lower than #300. Brown lost six of its last seven games, with four of six losses by 9+ points- they're 3-12 vs teams ranked above #300. Dartmouth's only win in its last games was over #324 Longwood.

Ill-Chicago was 10-22 from arc, Detroit 0-10 in Flames' 63-59 win over the Titans Dec 29, 13th win for home team in last 16 series games. UIC lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last two by 3-14 points. Flames are 1-6 since beating Detroit, losing their last three road games by 17-21-6 points- they turn ball over on 23.9% of possessions. Horizon double digit home favorites are 3-4 against the spread. Detroit won four of last five games, winning last three at home by 11-15-16 points.

Loyola, Chi had 21 turnovers (-12) in 64-48 home loss to Wright State in first meeting; Ramblers lost four in row, 10 of last 11 games vs Raiders, losing last six in Nutter Center by 14-26-4-21-18-13 points. Loyola lost its last eight games, losing away games by 4-21-7-15 points. Wright lost four of last six games, but won last two at home by 18-6 points; they're 5-0 vs teams ranked below #250, with three wins by 16+ points. Horizon home favorites are 17-19 this season.

Harvard won four of last five games with Yale, but lost by a point here LY, its sixth loss in last eight visits to New Haven; with Ivy League not having a conference tourney, this is one of two huge games that should decide the Ivy champ. Crimson allowed 49 ppg in winning its last four games since odd loss at Fordham; they're 7-2 in true road games, losing also at UConn. Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points. Yale won 10 of last 12 games (lost to Wake Forest/Florida).

Marist lost its last nine games with Siena, losing last four visits here by 4-25-25-8 points; Red Foxes lost last five games, all by 10+ points, with road losses in MAAC play by 13-13-10-19 points. MAAC single digit home favorites are 13-8-1 against the spread. Siena upset Iona last game after being down 10 at half; they've won last five home games, three by 4 or less points. Saints are 1-0-1 as a MAAC favorite this year. Marist is 0-5 against the spread in its last five games.

Home side won last nine Iona-Fairfield games, with Gaels losing last five trips to this gym, by 3-9-2-17-4 points. Iona split last four games, with both losses as double digit favorites; they're 4-3 vs teams ranked higher than #150. MAAC favorites are 7-3-1 vs spread when number is 4 or less points. Fairfield turns ball over 22% of time and makes just 65.1% of its foul shots- they're disappointing 5-3 in MAAC, with two of three losses by total of five points.

Loyola Md (-12) lost 66-61 at home to Niagara Jan 2, as Purple Eagles made 7-13 from arc, Loyola 4-20; Greyhounds are now 1-10 in last 11 series games, with lone win here by 12 LY, but Loyola is 5-1 since that loss, winning last two games by 11 points each. Niagara won three of its last four games, but is 1-8 the last nine times they scored less than 75 points. MAAC favorites are 7-3-1 vs spread when number is 4 or less points. Niagara ranks 284th in defense, makes just 32.7% on arc.

Manhattan lost its last three games with Canisius by 2-21-9 points, but Jaspers are much-improved this season at 7-2 in league, winning its last five games, allowing 53.7 ppg in last three. Manhattan is 3-2 as MAAC home favorite; eight of its nine MAAC games stayed under total. Double digit MAAC underdogs are 8-4 vs spread, 1-2 at home. Canisius is bad, losing six of last seven games- best team they've beaten is South Dakota, #281 in country- their last four losses are all by 14+ points.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-27-2012, 06:59 PM

NBA

Friday, January 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +16 500
Philadelphia - Over 182 500

Indiana - 7:30 PM ET Indiana -3 500
Boston - Under 176 500

Atlanta - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta -6.5 500
Detroit - Under 179 500

New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +4.5 500
Cleveland - Over 191 500

New York - 8:00 PM ET New York +10.5 500
Miami - Over 195 500

Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee +11.5 500
Chicago - Over 185.5 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET New Orleans +4 500
New Orleans - Over 177.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Houston -9 500
Houston - Under 197.5 500

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +1 500
Minnesota - Over 195.5 500

Utah - 8:30 PM ET Utah +5 500
Dallas - Over 186 500

Toronto - 9:00 PM ET Denver -12.5 500
Denver - Under 197 500

Phoenix - 10:00 PM ET Portland -9.5 500
Portland - Under 193 500

Oklahoma City - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +4 500
Golden State - Over 199 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB

Friday, January 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Loyola-Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Loyola-Chicago +9 500
Wright St. - Over 109 500

Dartmouth - 7:00 PM ET Brown -3 500
Brown - Under 118.5 500

Harvard - 7:00 PM ET Harvard -6 500
Yale - Over 128 500

Illinois-Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Detroit -15.5 500
Detroit - Under 136.5 500

Iona - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield +1.5 500
Fairfield - Over 143 500

Loyola-Maryland - 7:00 PM ET Loyola-Maryland -2.5 500
Niagara - Under 138 500

Marist - 7:00 PM ET Siena -8.5 500
Siena - Over 138 500

Manhattan - 7:15 PM ET Manhattan -10 500
Canisius - Under 134.5 500

Boston U - 9:00 PM ET Boston U +5.5 500
Stony Brook - Over 119.5 500

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