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**StarDust Bum** · 01-23-2012, 07:10 PM

SUPER BOWL HISTORY

Superbowl Year Winner Winner's Line Loser Total Location

XLV 2010 Green Bay Packers 31 -3 Pittsburgh Steelers 25 45, OVER Arlington, TX

XLIV 2010 New Orleans Saints 31 +5 Indianapolis Colts 17 57, UNDER Miami, FL

XLIII 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers 27 -7 Arizona Cardinals 23 46, OVER Tampa, FL

XLII 2008 New York Giants 17 +12 New England Patriots 14 55, UNDER Glendale, AZ

XLI 2007 Indianapolis Colts 29 -7 Chicago Bears 17 47, UNDER Miami, FL

XL 2006 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -4 Seattle Seahawks 10 47, UNDER Detroit, MI

XXXIX 2005 New England Patriots 24 -7 Philadelphia Eagles 21 46.5, UNDER Jacksonville, FL

XXXVIII 2004 New England Patriots 32 -7 Carolina Panthers 29 37.5, OVER Houston, TX

XXXVII 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 +4 Oakland Raiders 21 44, OVER San Diego, CA

XXXVI 2002 New England Patriots 20 +14 St. Louis Rams 17 53, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XXXV 2001 Baltimore Ravens 34 -3 New York Giants 7 33, OVER Tampa, FL

XXXIV 2000 St. Louis Rams 23 -7 Tennessee Titans 16 47.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA

XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos 34 -7.5 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER Miami, FL

XXXII 1998 Denver Broncos 31 +11 Green Bay Packers 24 49, OVER San Diego, CA

XXXI 1997 Green Bay Packers 35 -14 New England Patriots 21 49, OVER New Orleans, LA

*** 1996 Dallas Cowboys 27 -13.5 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 51, UNDER Tempe, AZ

XXIX 1995 San Francisco 49ers 49 -18.5 San Diego Chargers 26 53.5, OVER Miami, FL

XXVIII 1994 Dallas Cowboys 30 -10.5 Buffalo Bills 13 50.5, UNDER Atlanta, GA

XXVII 1993 Dallas Cowboys 52 -6.5 Buffalo Bills 17 44.5, OVER Pasadena, CA

XXVI 1992 Washington Redskins 37 -7 Buffalo Bills 24 49, OVER Minneapolis, MN

XXV 1991 New York Giants 20 +7 Buffalo Bills 19 40.5, UNDER Tampa, FL

XXIV 1990 San Francisco 49ers 55 -12 Denver Broncos 10 48, OVER New Orleans, LA

XXIII 1989 San Francisco 49ers 20 -7 Cincinnati Bengals 16 48, UNDER Miami, FL

XXII 1988 Washington Redskins 42 +3 Denver Broncos 10 47, OVER San Diego, CA

XXI 1987 New York Giants 39 -9.5 Denver Broncos 20 40, OVER Pasadena, CA

XX 1986 Chicago Bears 46 -10 New England Patriots 10 37.5, OVER New Orleans, LA

XIX 1985 San Francisco 49ers 38 -3.5 Miami Dolphins 16 53.5, OVER Stanford, CA

XVIII 1984 LA Raiders 38 +3 Washington Redskins 9 48, UNDER Tampa, FL

XVII 1983 Washington Redskins 27 +3 Miami Dolphins 17 36.5, OVER Pasadena, CA

XVI 1982 San Francisco 49ers 26 -1 Cincinnati Bengals 21 48, UNDER Pontiac, MI

XV 1981 Oakland Raiders 27 +3 Philadelphia Eagles 10 37.5, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XIV 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers 31 -10.5 Los Angeles Rams 19 36, OVER Pasadena, CA

XIII 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 35 -3.5 Dallas Cowboys 31 37, OVER Miami, FL

XII 1978 Dallas Cowboys 27 -6 Denver Broncos 10 39, UNDER New Orleans, LA

XI 1977 Oakland Raiders 32 -4 Minnesota Vikings 14 38, OVER Pasadena, CA

X 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -7 Dallas Cowboys 17 36, OVER Miami, FL

IX 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 16 -3 Minnesota Vikings 6 33, UNDER New Orleans, LA

VIII 1974 Miami Dolphins 24 -6.5 Minnesota Vikings 7 33, UNDER Houston, TX

VII 1973 Miami Dolphins 14 -1 Washington Redskins 7 33, UNDER Los Angeles, CA

VI 1972 Dallas Cowboys 24 -6 Miami Dolphins 3 34, UNDER New Orleans, LA

V 1971 Baltimore Colts 16 -2.5 Dallas Cowboys 13 36, UNDER Miami, FL

IV 1970 Kansas City Chiefs 23 +12 Minnesota Vikings 7 39, UNDER New Orleans, LA

III 1969 New York Jets 16 +18 Baltimore Colts 7 40, UNDER Miami, FL

II 1968 Green Bay Packers 33 -13.5 Oakland Raiders 14 43, OVER Miami, FL

I 1967 Green Bay Packers 35 -14 Kansas City Chiefs 10 NL Los Angeles, CA

**StarDust Bum** · 01-23-2012, 07:13 PM

Super Bowl XLVI Opener

January 22, 2012

This year’s playoffs have watched the home team post an 8-2 straight up and 6-4 against the spread record. We’ve also witnessed a nice share of blowouts, with five of the first eight games decided by double digits. Prior to the conference championships, the smallest outcome was four points, as San Francisco beat New Orleans 36-32 in the Divisional Playoffs last weekend.
Fortunately, fans were treated to a pair of three-point outcomes and most would agree that you could easily be looking at the 49ers and Ravens squaring off in this spot. Who would you rather be, Ravens kicker Billy Cundiff or 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams?

Most total players probably had mixed emotions too after Sunday. After watching the ‘over’ notch a 6-2 mark in the two early rounds, the ‘under’ bounced back with a 2-0 mark in the Championship round. New England and Baltimore closed at 49 and if Cundiff makes his missed field goal, you’re looking at a worst case scenario of a push. The Giants and 49ers also had a chance with the new overtime rule but the ‘under’ was the right side, with the sharps and public both cashing tickets.

Super Bowl XLVI from Indianapolis (2/5/12)

New England vs. New York Giants

Line: Patriots -3 (54.5)

Movement: The Greek started the festivities with the Patriots -3.5 and they’ve been holding steady. The Las Vegas Hilton opened 3 while the Wynn opened 4. The Hilton is strong on 3, while the Wynn adjusted down. The total has a lot of nice options, depending where you shop. You can get as low 54 and as high as 55.5.

Betting Notes: Gamblers will have to choose between a pair of red-hot teams in the finale. Since losing at home to the Giants (20-24) in Week 9, the Patriots have won 10 straight (6-4 ATS). Ironically, New York dropped four consecutive and five of six games after beating New England. Then, the Giants closed the regular season with two wins and ripped off another three in the playoffs, two coming on the road. The Patriots went 6-2 on the road this season, losing at Buffalo (31-34) in Week 3 and to Pittsburgh (17-25) in Week 8. The Giants posted a 7-3 record both SU and ATS away from home. The Patriots didn't play indoors during the regular season. The Giants played three games in a dome or under a retractable roof. In those encounters, New York went 2-1 both SU and ATS, and all three games went ‘over’ the number.

Super Bowl Betting Notes

New England is 3-1 in Super Bowls under head coach Bill Belichick

The Patriots have failed to cover (0-3 ATS, 2-1 SU) when listed as favorites in the Super Bowl

The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the four SBs under Belichick as well

The Giants beat the Patriots 17-14 in Super Bowl XLII. The combined 31 points never threatened the closing total of 55

The Giants have been to the Super Bowl four times, going 3-1, winning twice outright as underdogs

The NFC has won three of the last four Super Bowls and they’ve covered all four during this stretch

The last three Super Bowls with a total of 50 or more all saw the 'under' cash

**StarDust Bum** · 01-23-2012, 07:15 PM

SBXLVI Betting Notes

January 23, 2012

Before the Conference Championship games were played Sunday, most Las Vegas bookmakers had a feeling that the matchup between the Patriots-Giants would have New England being a 4 ½ to 5-point favorite for the Super Bowl. But just as New York’s Lawrence Tynes was kicking his game winning overtime field goal -- the second time he's done it in a championship game -- the LVH Super Book hung the Patriots minus-3, which came as a shockingly low number to a few.
Other books like the South Point and Station Casinos opened the Patriots at -3 ½-flat, but within minutes the line came tumbling down to -3. MGM Resorts went from -3 ½ to -3 ½ (EV) with hopes that they won’t ever go to the key number -3, a worst case scenario in a game of this magnitude if it lands on 3 and they find themselves bouncing on and off the number.

It’s apparent that we witnessed Sunday had a major bearing on what the Super Bowl line would open as.

“We just felt that the Giants aggressive play on both sides of the ball, especially their strong defensive play, was more impressive than the Patriots play, not only on Sunday, but against all quality competition this season,” said LVH executive director Jay Kornegay.

The Giants battled all game long against one of the league’s top defenses in their 20-17 win at San Francisco while the Patriots found themselves very fortunate to come out with a 23-20 home victory over the Ravens. The Giants have had the most rapid increase in their power rating the last five weeks.

Despite the game being on a key number right now, Kornegay said his booking strategy for a game of this magnitude will be vastly different from any of the playoff or regular season games played this season.

“We’re not going to settle in to a number right now,” said Kornegay, “we’ll probably have a larger extension to risk at a certain number as we get closer to the game, but early on we’ll let the money move us quicker until we find what the right number is whether that means 3, 2 ½ or 3 ½.”

Three is a dangerous number to play with and most sports books are probably hoping that the game runs one way or another to avoid the most popular margin of victory in pro football. The five year average of all pro football games shows 14.6% of all games landing on 3, not including both of Sunday’s Championship games which were both won by three-point margins.

Should the sports books find themselves jumping back and forth around the most dangerous number in the biggest game of the year, and then the favored team happened to win by 3, it’ll be a rough decision for the house.

The hope for most sports books is that the what-we-saw-last mentality wears off and that favored team gets back up to -3 ½, and maybe even -4, before the massive onslaught of action begins on the final weekend.

It was just last season when we saw a steady 3 last throughout with the favored Packers beating the Steelers 31-25. Before that, the last 3 we saw in the Super Bowl was the Ravens beating the Giants 34-7 after the 2001 season.

Regardless of what the number settles on, Kornegay expects handle to be great for this game.

“With these two teams, I would expect the handle to match last seasons ($87 million),” said Kornegay.

Last year’s Super Bowl saw a net win of only $724,176 across the entire state for a low 0.8% that left many major sports books as losers for the day, something they hope doesn’t reoccur this year. They definitely don‘t want a repeat the 2008 Super Bowl that saw the Giants win straight-up as 12-point underdogs against the Patriots. That was the worst Super Bowl in Nevada history with a loss of $2.57 Million (-2.8%).

That Super Bowl loss was spurred by the majority of small money piling up on a deflated money-line price with the underdog. Despite getting no value on the money-line, bettors still lined up to bet the Giants to win straight-up and the books couldn’t make up to the 3-to-1 payouts.

This is the only game of the year where sharp money means very little. The movement we saw Sunday night when the line was first posted was dictated by large money with lower limits. But once the days start to count down to February 5, all the little $20 bets will account for much more than a single $20,000 wager from a wise guy.

The all-time record for Super Bowl handle was in 2006 when a booming economy sent $94.5 million in wagers through Nevada sports book windows. The Steelers-Seahawks game didn’t provide the most glamorous matchup in Super Bowl history, but cash was flowing through Vegas from all neighborhoods at that time like never before.

If Nevada is able to match last year’s great matchup as Kornegay says is possible, than it should be considered a success. Now the hard part is winning and trying to match the all-time win record, which was in 2005 when books held 17% with $15.4 million in win. That was a bookmakers dream where the favored Patriots (-7) won 24-21, but didn’t cover against the Eagles and the game stayed UNDER (46 ½).

Sports Books Do Well Sunday

Between banking conference future wagers and beginning Sunday with the best possible scenario in the AFC Championship game, the Las Vegas sports books did well. It was a bookmakers dream with the favored Patriots (-7) winning 23-20, but not covering against the Ravens. The dream got even better when the game stayed UNDER the total (49).

There was still some leftover risk from that game going into the late game and the Giants had the edge from public play making it the worst possible decision. However, with the game staying UNDER the total (41), it made the best out of a possible bad situation.

“We did very well in the early games, but the bettors got some of it back late with the Giants,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It didn’t help matters that 7-point teaser went 8-0 on the day and 6-point teasers went 7-1.”

Imagine that, if you had just gone to the betting window and said let me tease every side and total 7-points, you would have walked away a winner as every game stayed within the boundaries of the spread. Last season in the championship round, teasers were 7-1, which may be why some sports books don’t offer teasers in the playoffs.

South Point Sports Book Service

I spent Sunday afternoon watching and betting the games at the South Point sports book and my jaw dropped when I noticed that they had 12 windows exclusively open for sports betting. It’s the only all sports book in town that has a race book with each in its own separate part of the casino, which makes it nice, but that type of service in this era of companies squeezing every cent in their labor force left me in amazement.

Most other sports books in town have had to down size their labor force considerably. From an economic stand point, it’s understandable on their end because the labor expense is really the only expenditure that they can have a real grip on. Most of you may have noticed that more and more race and sports books have gone to having multi-task windows that take both pari-mutual horse and sports wagers. That all works nice when the time of day is slow, but at key moments such as when a race is going off and games are kicking or tipping off simultaneously, both race and sports bettors sometimes get shut out.

It’s easy for the book to say, ”You’ve had all day to bet this race or that game,” but at some point a depleted race and sports book staff -- which is the case almost everywhere in town -- should have cause for concern by upper management who rarely see those shut out moments.

The small percentage of guests that call to complain are brushed off as constant complainers and those who don’t complain just choose to go elsewhere and are never heard from again.

This is why a tip of the cap and a salute goes out to Osborne and his staff for never getting anyone shut-out and for Michael Gaughan ensuring that a lack of labor will never cost him a guest.

Super Bowl Party at the Clarion

Last season Brian Blessing and Sports Book Radio hosted a Super Bowl party at the NASCAR Café that people are still talking about a year later. It was awesome! NASCAR Café is now closed, but the manager of those great events, Randy Goldich, has moved on to the Clarion on convention center drive and he’s providing an even better party this year.

For a mere $60, your entry includes an open bar from 1:00 p.m. on and non-stop food such as the all-you-can-eat ribs, beef on weck, wings, hot dogs and more. Everyone will be given a free commemorative t-shirt upon entry and they’ll be giving away all kinds of prizes throughout the game such as a 42” plasma TV.

The entire party will be taking place inside the Star Theatre at the Clarion. So go hang out with Brian and Randy and let them you show you a great time on Super Bowl Sunday, or as they have to call it, “The Big Game Bash” so the NFL lawyers don’t get angry with them. To make reservations, call Randy at (702) 238-8539.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-23-2012, 07:17 PM

The Rematch: Pats-Giants in Super Bowl

January 22, 2012

A Super Sequel.

Four years after New York stunned previously undefeated New England in the Arizona desert, the Patriots and Giants are going at it again at the Super Bowl - this time in Indianapolis.

Brady and Belichick. Eli and Coughlin. Both teams rolling through the playoffs.

Yep, here we go again.

New England, which lost to New York 24-20 in early November, opened as a 3-point favorite for the Feb. 5 game. The Patriots have won 10 straight, with their last loss being to - you guessed it - the Giants.

``We know they're a great team,'' Giants quarterback Eli Manning said. ``We played them already this year. They've been playing great football recently.''

It's familiar territory for Tom Brady and the Patriots (15-3), who are playing in the Super Bowl for the fifth time in 11 years.

``Being in this situation is a great moment,'' Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork said. ``You have to cherish this moment.''

It's the Patriots' first appearance since Manning and the Giants (12-7) upset New England's pursuit of perfection in 2008. Back then, New England was a 12-point favorite, but New York's defense battered Brady, and Manning connected with Plaxico Burress on a late touchdown to win the Giants' third Super Bowl.

That TD came, of course, a few moments after one of the biggest plays in playoff history: Manning escaped the grasp of a few Patriots defenders and found David Tyree, who put New York in scoring position by pinning the football against his helmet for a jaw-dropping catch.

New England hopes to avoid that sort of drama this time around. Unless it goes in the Patriots' favor, as it did in the AFC title game.

Brady was unusually subpar in the Patriots' 23-20 victory over Baltimore, throwing for 239 yards with two interceptions and, for the first time in 36 games, no TD passes. But he got some help from the Patriots' much-maligned defense, which made some crucial stops down the stretch.

A few mistakes by the Ravens helped greatly, too, as Billy Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal attempt with 11 seconds left - soon after Lee Evans had a potential winning touchdown catch ripped out of his hands in the end zone.

``Childlike joy. It's all about childlike joy,'' linebacker Jerod Mayo said. ``Last night felt like the day before Christmas for me and I haven't had that feeling in a long time.''

New England last won the Super Bowl in 2005, a long drought after the Patriots took home Lombardi trophies three times in four years. There are only a handful of players left from that team, with guys like Corey Dillon, Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison replaced by young up-and-comers such as Mayo, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

``It doesn't even feel right, especially playing with the veterans here,'' Gronkowski said. ``I watched them go to the Super Bowl as I was growing up, and now I'm part of it? It is an unreal moment.''

The constants, though, are Brady and Bill Belichick. And that's been a winning combination for New England.

Belichick did perhaps his finest coaching job, piecing together a defense that ranked second-to-last in the league during the regular season. That led to plenty of shootouts, and Brady was more than up to the task, throwing for a career-high 5,235 yards while tossing 39 touchdown passes.

``They're an amazing team,'' Patriots owner Robert Kraft said. ``They're a great brotherhood; they're a family.''

The Giants appeared on the verge of collapsing with Tom Coughlin's job status in jeopardy just a month ago, when they fell to 7-7 with an embarrassing loss to the Washington Redskins on Dec. 18.

``We've been here before,'' linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka said at the time, ``and we'll get back.''

Boy, was he right.

``I'm just proud of the guys, what we've overcome this year, what we've been through, just never having any doubts, keep believing in our team that we could get hot and start playing our best football,'' Manning said.

The Giants were facing elimination the following week against the rival Jets and Rex Ryan, who boldly declared that his group was king of New York. Well, Coughlin's crew silenced Ryan with a 29-14 victory. The Giants followed that with a 31-14 win over Dallas in the regular-season finale to clinch the NFC East and get to the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

New York dominated Atlanta at home in the opening round. Then came another stunner: a 37-20 victory at Green Bay - knocking out the defending Super Bowl champions.

Manning extended the best season of his career with one more solid performance. Specials teams proved the difference in overtime, as Jacquian Williams forced a fumble on a punt return and Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants past the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 for the NFC title.

``Hats off to Eli, offense, defense,'' Tynes said. ``Great win.''

And now, it's off to Indy. Giants-Patriots, one more time.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-23-2012, 07:19 PM

Manning, Giants to face Pats again

January 23, 2012

Hey, Indianapolis. A Manning will be playing in your Super Bowl, after all.

No, not that one.

It'll be Eli Manning leading the New York Giants to a Super Bowl rematch against the New England Patriots - and this time on older brother Peyton's home field.

``It doesn't matter to me where you're playing it or the fact that it's in Indianapolis,'' Eli Manning said. ``I'm just excited about being in one.''

And if the Giants can pull this one off, Eli will have sibling bragging rights with one more Super Bowl ring than Peyton, who missed this season for the Colts after having neck surgery.

It sure won't be easy for the Giants, though. Four years after New York stunned previously undefeated New England in the Arizona desert, they'll play a Super sequel.

Eli vs. Brady. Coughlin vs. Belichick. The Giants vs. the Patriots.

Sound familiar? Here we go again.

``It's awesome and we look forward to the challenge,'' Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora said. ``They are a great football team. They have always been a great football team. We are looking forward to it, and it's going to be a great game.''

Well, judging from the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl - David Tyree's jaw-dropping, helmet-pinning catch and all - it just might be.

``Being in this situation is a great moment,'' Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork said. ``You have to cherish this moment.''

New England (15-3) opened as a 3-point favorite for the Feb. 5 game against New York (12-7), but the Patriots know all about being in this position. They were favored by 12 points and pursuing perfection in 2008, but New York's defense battered Brady, and Manning connected with Plaxico Burress on a late touchdown to win the Giants' third Super Bowl.

That TD came, of course, a few moments after one of the biggest plays in playoff history: Manning escaping the grasp of Patriots defenders and finding Tyree, who put New York in scoring position by trapping the football against his helmet.

``Hopefully, we will have the same result,'' Umenyiora said. ``We still have one more game to go, but this is truly unbelievable.''

Especially since the Giants appeared on the verge of collapsing with Tom Coughlin's job status in jeopardy just a month ago, when they fell to 7-7 with an embarrassing loss to the Washington Redskins on Dec. 18.

``We've been here before,'' linebacker Mathias Kiwanuka said at the time, ``and we'll get back.''

Boy, was he right.

The Giants were facing elimination against the rival Jets and Rex Ryan, who boldly declared that his team ruled New York. Well, Coughlin's crew silenced Ryan with a 29-14 victory. The Giants followed that with a 31-14 win over Dallas in the regular-season finale to clinch the NFC East and get to the playoffs for the first time since the 2008 season.

New York dominated Atlanta at home in the opening round. Then came a stunner: a 37-20 victory at Green Bay - knocking out the defending Super Bowl champions.

On Sunday, Manning extended the best season of his career with one more solid performance, and Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants past the San Francisco 49ers 20-17 in overtime for the NFC title.

``I'm just proud of the guys, what we've overcome this year, what we've been through,'' Manning said, ``just never having any doubts, keep believing in our team that we could get hot and start playing our best football.''

The Patriots are rolling into the Super Bowl having won 10 straight, with their last loss being to - you guessed it - the Giants, 24-20 back in early November.

``We know they're a great team,'' Manning said. ``We played them already this year. They've been playing great football recently.''

They sure have. And now Brady and the Patriots are in familiar territory, playing in the Super Bowl for the fifth time in 11 years - and first since the stunning upset in Arizona.

New England hopes to avoid all that sort of drama this time around. Unless it goes in the Patriots' favor, as it did in the AFC title game.

Brady was unusually subpar in the Patriots' 23-20 victory over Baltimore, throwing for 239 yards with two interceptions and, for the first time in 36 games, no TD passes. But he got some help from the Patriots' much-maligned defense, which made some crucial stops down the stretch.

A few mistakes by the Ravens helped greatly, too, as Billy Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal attempt with 11 seconds left - soon after Lee Evans had a potential winning touchdown catch ripped out of his hands in the end zone.

``Childlike joy. It's all about childlike joy,'' linebacker Jerod Mayo said. ``Last night felt like the day before Christmas for me and I haven't had that feeling in a long time.''

New England last won the Super Bowl in 2005, a long drought considering that the Patriots took home Lombardi trophies three times in four years. There are only a handful of players left from that team, with guys like Corey Dillon, Tedy Bruschi and Rodney Harrison replaced by young up-and-comers such as Mayo, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

``It doesn't even feel right, especially playing with the veterans here,'' Gronkowski said. ``I watched them go to the Super Bowl as I was growing up, and now I'm part of it? It is an unreal moment.''

The constants, though, are Brady and Bill Belichick. And that's been a winning combination for New England, combining to become the first QB-coach combination to win five conference championships in the Super Bowl era.

Belichick did perhaps his finest coaching job this season, piecing together a defense that ranked second-to-last in the league during the regular season. That led to plenty of shootouts, and Brady was more than up to the task, throwing for a career-high 5,235 yards while tossing 39 touchdown passes.

``They're an amazing team,'' Patriots owner Robert Kraft said. ``They're a great brotherhood; they're a family.''

And they're all looking to lift another Super Bowl trophy together. Patriots-Giants. One more time.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-23-2012, 07:21 PM

Early Super Bowl Preview

NEW YORK GIANTS (12-7)

vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (15-3)

Super Bowl XLVI
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -3, Total: 55.5

The ******* Pro Football Pass boasts a 7-3 record against the spread so far this NFL postseason, picking up right where it left off after a wildly successful NFL regular season. It’s now time to focus attention on the Super Bow, and there will be plenty of talk leading up to February 5 about the similarities between Super Bowls XLVI and XLII. While there are a slew of returnees from the classic—Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Justin Tuck, Wes Welker, Osi Umenyiora, Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick to name a few—the dynamic of this year’s game is going to be much different. Four years ago, the Patriots went to Arizona as undefeated, double-digit favorites. The number is much smaller this time around, with New England having opened as a three-point favorite.

Big Blue has caught fire at just the right time. They’ve been in do-or-die mode since Week 17 of the regular season, when they dispatched of Dallas for the NFC East crown. Since then, they’ve hammered the Falcons at home, blasted the defending champion Packers in Green Bay and outlasted the Niners and the NFL’s best defense in San Francisco.

Eli Manning is right on par with Tom Brady in the quarterback matchup. Manning has the big-game postseason résumé to match Brady, and he’s playing some of the best football of his career right now. The biggest mismatch of the game will be Manning’s receivers—Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham—against the Patriots’ patchwork secondary. While trotting out a secondary that includes converted WR Julian Edelman and practice squad veterans Sterling Moore and James Ihedigbo makes for an interesting talking point, their play was so poor in the AFC title game that it nearly cost the Patriots the game. Belichick has been unable to come up with a gameplan to slow down opposing passing games all year; with Nicks out and his accuracy shaky, Manning still threw for 250 yards and led two touchdown drives in the final seven minutes in Foxboro.

Brady, however, is still the NFL’s best big-game quarterback. The Patriots have a more versatile running game than they did in Super Bowl XLII, and they could find success on the ground against a Giants defense that’s more interested in getting upfield than it is stopping the run—the Niners did run for 150 yards on the Giants in the NFC title game. The status of TE Rob Gronkowski’s ankle injury, which the Patriots will guard like a state secret, is also something to keep an eye on going forward. Gronk had 101 receiving yards and a late TD catch (that seemed like it would be the game winner) in the teams’ first meeting.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-25-2012, 07:05 PM

Report: Pats TE Gronkowski dealing with ligament damage

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is dealing with some ligament damage in his left ankle, the Boston Herald reported on Tuesday.

Gronkowski left the stadium in a walking boot following Sunday's 23-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Despite the injury, Gronkowski is expected to play in the Super Bowl against the New York Giants.

"We’ll see how it goes with Rob, and some of the other players that are getting treatment," Patriots coach Bill Belichick said. "We’ll see how it is when we get back out on the field. We haven’t practiced in the last couple of days. We’ll see how it is when it’s time to go."

Gronkowski injured his ankle on a 23-yard reception in the final minute of the third quarter. The second-year tight end later returned to the game, telling reporters he went to get the ankle re-taped.

He finished with five receptions for 87 yards but did not make a catch after he was hurt.

Gronkowski has had a monster season, setting records for tight ends for touchdowns (17) and receiving yards (1,327).

He also came up huge in New England's 45-10 playoff win over Denver, hauling in 10 catches for 145 yards and three touchdowns.

The Patriots are set as 3-point favorites with a 55-point total in next Sunday's game.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-25-2012, 07:06 PM

Books scared of a "Middle"

January 24, 2012

We’ve had 10 Super Bowls with the spread hovering around minus-3 and none of them have landed on the number. This year’s Super Bowl opened with the Patriots as 3 ½-point favorites and quickly went to -3 and based on the way almost every book has -3 (EVEN) posted, it looks as though we could be seeing -2 ½ quickly, but Cantor Gaming sports book director Mike Colbert hopes it doesn’t and based on past history, it probably won‘t.
“I think 3-flat (-110) is the perfect number that the betting public understands,“ said Colbert who opened the Patriots -3 (-115) and is currently at -3 (-105). “I’m hoping we get balanced up enough to where we can go in to next week with a 3-flat.”

In recent history, we have seen four of the five Super Bowls that have landed on 3 occur and they all involved the Patriots. In each of their games, the spread never came into question as they were 14-point underdogs to the Rams, 7-point favorites against both the Panthers and Eagles and 12-point favorites against the Giants.

“I’m superstitious, so now I’m really not getting off the number,” Colbert said jokingly after told about the Patriots love of 3 in the Super Bowl. “Obviously we don’t want a push, but until we get overwhelming support for the Giants that puts us in too much jeopardy, I’m staying on the number.”

“We got early action on the Patriots because we opened lower than what the market had, but since then it’s been all Giants money. However, I do think it will even out because the Patriots have been a public team, along with the Packers, all season.”

There have been 37 games (13.9%) this season that landed on 3, including both Championship games last Sunday. The sports books want a decision in the game, but not at the risk of putting their property in harm’s way.

The last two Super Bowls that ended in pushes were the Rams (-7) beating the Titans 23-16 in SBXXXIV and the Packers (-14) beating the Patriots 35-21 in SBXXXI. In each case, there were lines a mile long at the books with everyone getting refunds. The books all ended up small winners due to propositions and OVER-UNDER wagers, but a decision with the type of volume that happens in these games is what they want, because it’s very rare that the books lose the big game.

But messing around with a key number can get a book into serious trouble by either getting sided or getting middle, which happened in the Super Bowl following the 1979 season when the Steelers played the Cowboys. Jimmy Vaccaro was just getting started in the sports book business at the Royal Inn and remembers it being a real education into bookmaking.

“You have to remember that things were much different back then. Most of the casinos in town didn’t have sports books, there was no Internet and most of the betting people did from outside the state was through bookmakers,” said Vaccaro. On the East Coast, many of the bookmakers knew people were going to bet the Steelers so they were making bettors lay -4 ½ with Pittsburgh. On the West Coast, many of the bookmakers were operating with a line of -2 ½ because of knowing they’d get Dallas money.”

So Vaccaro knew what the market was on each side of the coast and had to set the line for his book. The Cowboys were considered "America's Team" and defending Super Bowl champions and the Steelers had won back-to-back Super Bowls two years earlier.

“I opened the Steelers minus-3, got as high as 4 ½ and finally closed at 3 ½. Some of the little bet shops around town were also offering a promotional deal to create more business to their place by offering the Steelers at -3 ½ and Cowboys at +4 ½. None of us thought the game would land 4, but you know how the rest of the story goes.”

Steelers 35 Cowboys 31

“It’s never a good thing when you’re paying everyone as winners or giving their money back on a push,” said Vaccaro. “And back then we didn’t have computer systems to quickly generate an overall win-loss result. I knew the figure was going to be bad, but I had to wait and hand grade every ticket and it took over four hours until I was able to give a final answer to Michael (Royal Inn owner, Michael Gaughan, current owner of the South Point).”

“We had lines of people backed up all the way to convention center drive waiting to cash,” said Vaccaro. “It was a great baptism into bookmaking and a lesson very well learned.”

Although there aren’t many current bookmakers around who actually experienced the sting of that day, they all know the story of what happened on the fateful day known as “Black Sunday.” With a little history lesson intertwined, it’s quite understandable to see why we may never see the Patriots game drop below -3, no matter how much money is attached.

With the way the action is currently going, we could see Patriots -3 (+115) before someone finally makes the move to -2 ½. More than 99.9% of the action on the game is still to come, so each of the books in Las Vegas has plenty of time to make their move without getting stung too bad by getting middled or sided. But no one wants to be first. If making a guess on who might be first in Vegas, it would have to be the South Point which only uses flat (-110) numbers.

We’ll keep you updated along the way as it happens.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-25-2012, 07:09 PM

SBXLVI Betting Update

January 25, 2012

Just after I wrote about the sports books not wanting to go minus-2 ½, Jay Rood, VP of race and sports at MGM Resorts, had enough of all the early action on the Giants through Tuesday and tested the waters with Giants +2 ½ (-125).

"We we’re just getting too much money at a rapid pace on the Giants at all stages that we moved the line on from Sunday night until now," said Rood who opened the Giants +3 ½. "I’d rather make the move now and see what happens early on before the rush happens next week."

Most Las Vegas sports books still have the Patriots -3 (EVEN) with Lucky’s sports books showing a -3 (+105) on the Patriots. These next few days will be telling as to what we’ll see next weekend when the books will be more stubborn and set on their number.

Jay Kornegay and his staff are working feverishly to get all 350 Super Bowl props out by Thursday afternoon which will send a major rush to windows everywhere. The LVH Super Book sets the standard around town, and the world for the matter, on what the market price dictates.

Sharp players from everywhere will be in full force looking for an edge on the propositions with hopes of finding several middle opportunities with the varied prices around town.

Even though Kornegay won’t say so himself, the likely reason he is waiting longer than usual to open the props is because he and his staff seem to do all the work for everyone in town. There have been more than a few books in Las Vegas that have actually cut and pasted their logo on the Hilton sheet and used every one of their props and bet numbers to a tee, claiming it as their own.

When the props are released, we’ll have an update on some of the biggest movers as well as some of the biggest variances from what other sports books who work did their own have.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-25-2012, 07:11 PM

Possible Shootout?

January 25, 2012

Most betting shops opened New England as a 3 ½-point favorite and some even came out with the Patriots -4. Since the first number came out, all of the books have dropped the line to 3 with BetOnline.com and most recently the MGM in Las Vegas already going down to 2 ½ points.
Was the initial line wrong?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Paul Bovi answered, “Before the Saints and Packers were eliminated, the NFC was established as a clear-cut favorite of four points in most spots. Now that the Giants have emerged from the conference, the line has come full circle as the number sits at 3 with a strong lean towards the underdog as a New York backer would have to lay from 15 (-115) to 25 cents (-125), reflective of heavy action on the G-Men since it was the Patriots that were the minus-20 choices once the line was posted after the championship game concluded.”

“The books will likely try to hold the line at 3 to prevent being middled. However, if the onslaught of Giant money continues, a move to 2 1/2 is probable and thus leaving the books vulnerable to the lopsided action on the opening number.”

The ‘over/under’ also saw some early moves, with the number going from 54 to 55. It’s as high as 55 ½ points at CRIS.

Executive director Jay Kornegay of the LVH Super Book (Las Vegas Hilton) and his staff came out with an open of 53 ½ and have adjusted up to 54 ½ points.

Kornegay explained the opener. “We just felt it was a comfortable number for us and knew the total would be inflated a bit, as always. Our thinking was that some of the sharps also liked the game to go under and would play it under early before the public got to it. Looking at the two teams, we also thought the number was just too high for the way these two are playing at this time.”

As of early this week, Kornegay said the total ticket count was about 50-50 to the ‘over/under.’

Is the number too high?

Considering the Giants and Patriots have saw their last two meetings go ‘under’ the number, some might believe so. And a few ‘over’ bettors are probably still stinging from Super Bowl XLII, when New York’s’ 17-14 victory over New England never threatened the closing number of 55.

Super Bowl Results
Super Bowl Matchup Total Result
XLIV New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17 UNDER 57
XLII N.Y. Giants 17 New Engalnd 14 UNDER 55
XXXVI New England 20 St. Louis 17 UNDER 53
XXXIII Denver 34 Atlanta 19 OVER 52.5
*** Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 UNDER 51
XXIX San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 OVER 53.5
XXVIII Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 UNDER 50.5
XIX San Francisco 38 Miami 16 OVER 53.5

Looking at the above table, you can see that we’ve had our share of high totals in the Super Bowl before but we’ve also had more defensive battles than shootouts when the total is in the fifties.

Rather than going back four years, this year’s regular season affair between the pair that occurred in Week 9.

Bovi explained, “While these teams played to a 44-point result (24-20) back in early November, the high total (55) is reflective of a number of factors, including the optimal playing conditions of Lucas Oil Stadium. You also have to look at a Giants offense, which is healthy, and that has generated much greater productivity as the year has progressed. Plus the Patriots defense that still has question marks.”

For those of you who forgot the regular season affair between the pair, make a mental note that the game was 0-0 at halftime. Even though it stayed ‘under’ the number, 44 points and more importantly eight scores were posted in the second-half.

New York Giants
Matchup Total Result
N.Y. Giants 37 Green Bay 20 OVER 53.5
N.Y. Giants 37 Dallas 34 OVER 50.5
Green Bay 38 N.Y. Giants 35 OVER 53.5
New Orleans 49 N.Y. Giants 24 OVER 50.5
N.Y. Giants 24 New England 20 UNDER 51.5

New England Patriots
Matchup Total Result
New England 45 Denver 10 OVER 50.5
New England 38 Philadelphia 20 OVER 50.5
N.Y. Giants 24 New England 20 UNDER 51.5
Pittsburgh 25 New England 17 UNDER 52
New England 20 Dallas 16 UNDER 55.5
New England 30 N.Y. Jets OVER 50.5
New England 31 Oakland 19 UNDER 55.5
New England 35 San Diego 21 OVER 53.5

Looking above, you can see that the Giants have had five games with an ‘over/under’ in the fifties this season and the ‘over’ has cashed in four of them. Plus one of those affairs was indoors, at New Orleans, and the defense was lit up by the Saints for 49 points. New England saw almost half of its games have a total of 50-plus and the total results ended in a stalemate (4-4). The Patriots have not played indoors or under a retractable roof this season.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-25-2012, 07:14 PM

Patriots secondary still question mark vs. Giants

January 25, 2012

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Eli Manning could have a pretty clear view downfield against the hardly super secondary of the New England Patriots.

Get ready, Julian Edelman. Here comes Victor Cruz.

A young group including undrafted free agents, a Pro Bowl player in a sophomore slump and even a wide receiver was good enough to help beat Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens - barely - in the AFC championship game.

The New York Giants and Manning, with his big-game experience and receivers Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, pose a tougher challenge in the Super Bowl on Feb. 5.

``The Giants are playing like they're the best team in the National Football League at this point,'' former Patriots safety Rodney Harrison said Wednesday, ``and Eli, he's been fantastic and he will pick this secondary apart.''

James Ihedigbo isn't listening to the doubters.

After three years as a special teams player for the New York Jets, he's started the last 14 games at safety for the Patriots - with no interceptions all season. He is, Harrison said, a ``serviceable'' player but hard-working and team-oriented.

``We have a saying, `All we got is us,' and that's how we play,'' Ihedigbo said. ``We play for each other.''

Since the season began, 16 different defensive backs have played. The changes began in training camp when the Patriots released starting safeties Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders.

Cutting Sanders, a smart leader, was ``a big mistake'' by coach Bill Belichick, Harrison said.

The Patriots allowed 70 completions of 20 yards or more, nearly 4 1-2 a game. But Belichick saw improvement after the midpoint of the season.

``I don't think that necessarily the work ethic or the desire or the competitiveness to do it has changed a lot, but the results started to improve because of a little more continuity, a little better execution, better technique, more confidence,'' he said. ``It's a group of guys and coaches that have worked hard and tried to get better on a daily basis and I think they have over the course of the season, more so in the last five or six weeks. ``

The starters are Ihedigbo and cornerback Kyle Arrington, both undrafted, second-year cornerback Devin McCourty, and safety Patrick Chung, who missed seven games with a foot injury before returning for the next to last game of the regular season.

The backups are Edelman, Sterling Moore, Antwaun Molden, Nate Jones and Malcolm Williams. Edelman is the only one of those five who were with the Patriots last season, and that was as a wide receiver and punt returner.

The last time he played defensive back?

``I think 1998,'' he said. ``Pop Warner. I was 12.''

Edelman had finished his junior season as a quarterback in 2007 at Kent State when the Patriots and Giants last met in the Super Bowl, where Manning was named MVP. David Tyree's unforgettable catch, trapping the ball against his helmet while closely guarded by Harrison, set up the winning touchdown in New York's 17-14 win.

That was the last game for Harrison, now an analyst for NBC who spoke on a conference call.

``One point in time I said that I felt like this was the worst secondary that the Patriots had the last decade and I felt strongly about that,'' he said. ``I'm not 100 percent sold on any of these guys.'

There were missed tackles, poor communication and lack of physical play, he said. The Patriots allowed 293.9 yards passing, second most during the regular season.

Since their playoffs began with a 45-10 win over Denver, Harrison has seen the defensive backs competing harder and playing better. But their performances declined in the 23-20 victory over the Ravens, he said.

``I was very disappointed because, yes, they made some plays,'' Harrison said. ``Sterling Moore, obviously, made a couple of key plays, but Patrick Chung and that secondary, you saw some miscommunications and it's his job to get everyone lined up and the other guys to do their job. And Flacco had a couple of opportunities down the field, which he didn't convert on that could have been a totally different game.''

Moore, a rookie who had been cut earlier in the season, swiped the ball out of Lee Evans' hands in the end zone with 22 seconds left.

``That play, that's our season,'' Ihedigbo said. ``That's everything that we worked for right there and he knocks that ball out of the receiver's hands.''

Moore followed that by breaking up a pass to Dennis Pitta at the 3-yard line with 15 seconds remaining. Then Billy Cundiff hooked a 32-yard field goal attempt.

``I can't say enough (about Moore),'' Ihedigbo said. ``He played phenomenal down there at the end.''

But Moore was the culprit on a 29-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith with 3:38 left in the third quarter as the Ravens took a 17-16 lead. Flacco threw to Smith in the right flat and immediately spun past Moore, attempting to make the tackle.

And Edelman, a physical player working hard to learn a new position, did a poor job on slot receiver Anquan Boldin for gains of 29 and 9 yards on Baltimore's final drive.

``Afterward, you know, you're like, `Wow, you definitely had to guard Boldin,' " he said, ``but not during the game.''

In the Super Bowl, he may guard Cruz.

Bad idea, Harrison said.

``I just don't think that's a smart matchup,'' he said. ``They tried it with Anquan Boldin and Edelman struggled.''

But the Patriots still won. And despite their shortcomings, they're taking a 10-game winning streak into the Super Bowl

So much for the critics, who may give the secondary added motivation.

``You've got to prove that you're able to play this game at a high level,'' Ihedigbo said. ``You play with a chip on your shoulder and guys have been able to do that.''

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2012, 12:23 PM

Super Bowl Prop Bets Continue To Grow

Giants vs. Patriots is a big deal not only in the Big Apple, Boston, Providence and other “home” cities for the teams involved, as well as Indianapolis, the host city. But no locale has embraced the Super Bowl like Las Vegas. It’s the biggest week of the year in town, not just for the sports books, but for the entire hotel industry.

LVH Superbook Director Jay Kornegay recently related the impact of the game, not only at his property, but at others across town.

"This is not only the biggest week of the year at the sports books," said Kornegay while guesting with us last Friday on Brian Blessing’s SportsBook Radio show on 920 AM in Las Vegas, "but it’s also the biggest week for the card dealers, waiters, waitresses, maitre d’s, you name it. They all want to make sure they are working during Super Bowl week when the business is always good."

What Kornegay and the other sports book directors also occupy themselves with at this time of year is the expansive list of Super Bowl proposition bets. The myriad of props at LVH – a dizzying array totaling over 300 – was finally made available last Friday, the culmination of several all-night cram sessions over the previous few days. Although the sports book staffs begin making preliminary preparations for the props weeks in advance, they can’t really begin to sink their teeth into any specific matchups until the conference championship games are complete.

At many properties, Tuesday is the all-day affair for the sports book staff to hammer out the specific props, but there’s a careful process before those numbers are available to the clientele.

"It takes a little while, because we’re double and triple-checking all of the numbers," said Kornegay, whose wide range of props are regarded as the industry standard.

The props have become such a big deal at LVH and other major sports books in town that an early glimpse at the numbers is almost akin to the Clarence Beeks character getting his hands on the crop reports before anyone else in the classic Trading Places movie.

Indeed, the Super Bowl proposition bets have taken on a life of their own over the years. Although English soccer fans are used to all sorts of “proposition” wagers for each and every game in the Premier League and other levels of “proper” football, such stat props are more rare for wagering opportunities in American football. Unless, of course, we’re talking about the Super Bowl.

Veteran prop followers, however, have a few suggestions, or cautions, regarding proposition wagers for the Super Bowl, which represents a new territory for most wagerers who focus most of their time on sides and totals during the regular season and playoffs.

1) Be wary of thinking that 'over' on most of the statistical props is a good wager. The knee-jerk reaction by most when they see the props is to believe that most of them will exceed or go 'over' whatever the posted number, especially on player stat props.

Keep in mind, however, that most props are completely stat-driven, with the books merely taking a statistical model and adjusting the percentages slightly (when warranted). There is rarely going to be a definitive “stat edge” for the player props in the Super Bowl.

2) Focus on the game first, and how you see it progressing, and try to fit in some of the prop wagers that might be consistent with how you perceive the flow of the game. If expecting a taut, lower-scoring affair, perhaps shade some of the props that reflect a defensive battle. On the other hand, if you foresee a shootout, shade the props that support a higher-scoring game and more yardage.

We are humored by many Las Vegas sorts who become very cocksure of themselves regarding their recommendations on Super Bowl props, especially since this is the only American football game of the year where such an expansive list of proposition bets is available. Nonetheless, we think there are a few props worth considering. Having said that, however, we think the following props might offer some value:

1) Defensive or special teams touchdowns: Yes +145, No -175. Consider that there have been special teams or defensive touchdowns in four of the last five Super Bowls, and the history of the game is replete with many such big plays. Ironically, the only one of the last five “Supes” without a defensive or special teams TD was the last time the Giants met the Patriots, in Super Bowl XLII four years ago in Glendale, Arizona.

2) In which half will more points be scored: First half +½ point, -120; Second half and overtime, -½, -110. Series history between these sides suggests to look at the second half/overtime combo as the recommendation here. Remember, Super Bowl XLII was 7-3 entering the fourth quarter four years ago before 21 points were scored in the final frame. And in this season’s regular-season meeting between the G-Men and Pats at Foxborough, the score was nil-nil at halftime.

3) First score of game: Touchdown -190, Field goal or safety +160. Getting a near 2/1 price on the first score of the game being a field goal seems decent value to us. The first score was also a field goal when these teams met Nov. 6 at Foxborough.

4) Different Players to have a passing attempt: Over 2½, +250; Under 2½, -330. This might not be a bad “bomber” on the 'over,' especially if one trick play (halfback option pass, fake punt or the like) is attempted. Then, it’s a winner. Also, if either staring QB is skaken up for even a short while, a backup could throw a pass. And, in the unlikelihood of a one-sided affair, a backup QB could get a chance to play in the final minutes. Not the worst longshot prop on the card.

Again, there are myriad player stat props as well, but we would suggest going back to our “first” number two point above; if you’re thinking this game might be lower-scoring and feature defense, shade some of the 'under' stat props; if you’re thinking it’s going to be a shootout, shade some of the 'over' stat props.

Or, just sit back and enjoy you wager on either the Giants, Patriots, or perhaps the “total” as well. No matter what, good luck, and enjoy Giants-Patriots!

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2012, 12:25 PM

Super Bowl Matchups Favor New York Giants

The pointspread for Super Bowl XVLI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants has been moving in the Giants’ direction as a lot people feel the matchups are to their advantage.

New York is now available at +2½ at some shops after opening as 3-3½ point underdogs. The total has stayed pretty steady at 55 points.

When New England passes the ball

Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 5,235 yards in the regular season and 602 more in two playoff games, but it’s no secret he struggles against strong pass rushes. His three lowest quarterback ratings this year have come against the Cowboys, Giants and Ravens, all ranked in the top-7 in the league in sacks.

Brady’s three main targets are receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski suffered a high ankle sprain against Baltimore last week and could be severely hampered. The Giants will stack the middle of the field and force Brady to throw outside to Deion Branch. Chad Ochocinco still has the speed to go deep, but caught 15 balls all year and there’s no guarantee he’ll even be active.

Summary: New England is predicted to score about 29 points with the team favored by three and the total at 55. Brady will need to be interception-free for that to happen and make several great plays in the face of a very good Giants pass rush.

When New England runs the ball

New England ranked 20th in run offense during the regular season (110.3 YPG), while the Giants were 19th in run defense (121.3 YPG). The Patriots have a promising rookie in Stevan Ridley, but he was inactive last game due to fumbling concerns and that leaves just BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead.

The Giants allowed 120.3 YPG on the ground in playoff wins over Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco. However, that number drops to 84.3 YPG without the scrambling of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith, something they won’t have to worry about with the slow-footed Brady.

Summary: Green-Ellis never fumbles and had a tough 68 yards on 15 carries in the AFC title game. The Patriots need to be patient offensively and run the ball when the Giants drop into dime coverage and dare them to run. New England needs over 100 rushing yards to win this game.

When New York passes the ball

Quarterback Eli Manning backed up his statement that he’s an ‘elite’ quarterback by throwing for 4,933 yards in the regular season (92.9 QB rating) and adding six, fourth quarter comebacks. The postseason numbers are even better with 308 YPG, eight TDs and just one interception (103.1 rating).

Manning has three very good receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. Nicks is dealing with a shoulder issue, but is not listed on the injury report. The Patriots pass defense ranked 31st in the regular season (294 YPG) and while they have been better in the postseason, playing the inaccurate Tim Tebow helped. Manningham was almost giddy at the thought of converted receiver Julian Edelman guarding him this Sunday.

Summary: Coach Bill Belichick needs to come up with a scheme to confuse Manning, but that is easier said than done. The Giants’ receivers against the Patriots’ cover guys of Sterling Moore, Kyle Arrington, Edelman etc. is the biggest matchup advantage on either side. Expect a big day for the Giants signal caller.

When New York runs the ball

New York ranked dead-last in run offense during the regular season (89.2 YPG), while New England was 17th in run defense (117.1 YPG).

Both teams have been much better in the playoffs. The Giants are at 117.3 YPG and have increased their yards per attempt from 3.5 to 4.2. Ahmad Bradshaw is playing through a foot injury and will be the main back with some help from big Brandon Jacobs. New England has allowed 130 YPG to Denver and Baltimore this postseason, but just 3.6 yards per rush compared to 4.6 in the regular season.

Summary: This is not a big matchup advantage for either team. The Giants want to run the ball enough to keep the Patriots defense honest and free up play-action for Manning. New England’s unit seems to be peaking behind Vince Wilfork and should do a solid job.

Special Teams, Coaching and Intangibles

Special teams are always the big x-factor. The Giants likely would have lost the NFC title game to San Fran if not for two punt return fumbles. New England fumbled on a kick return last game that almost proved costly. Barring a turnover though, the special teams matchup this week is a push.

Looking at intangibles, the Giants are more battle hardened having won road playoff game at Green Bay and San Francisco, who were a combined 16-1 at home beforehand. The Patriots got to play both their playoff games at Foxborough and it’s hard to imagine them beating the Ravens if that game was away.

The coaches are both old school and former members of Bill Parcells’ Giants staff. Belichick does get the overall coaching nod, especially with two weeks to prepare. He also rarely loses to a team twice in the same season and the Giants won 24-20 on the road in November. However, coach Tom Coughlin is a very good game-planner in his own right and has more overall talent to work with.

Legacies are also on the line with Belichick trying to tie Chuck Noll for most Super Bowl wins as a coach. Brady is trying to match Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana for most wins by a quarterback. Coach Coughlin and Manning would also each get into rarified air with their second Super Bowl ring.

Finally, the elephant in the room is the Patriots trying to get revenge for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants four years ago that ruined their perfect season. Belichick and company won’t acknowledge it as a factor, but it certainly is one. The question is whether they can overcome their matchup disadvantage to get it done.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-04-2012, 12:38 PM

Super Props

January 30, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis kicks off Feb. 5 when New England meets the New York Giants with the Patriots looking to avenge losses to the Giants in Super Bowl XVII, and also a 24-20 defeat at Foxboro this season in a game which snapped a 20-game regular season home win streak by New England.
Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet more often this time of the year than first-timers at a gay rally.

It’s important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the oddsmaker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent ‘juice’ edge in his favor. Thus, it’s critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create more action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino Super Book.

Furthermore, it’s important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay, this is the only NFL game of the year where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some “tips” on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year’s Super Bowl.

1. The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It’s fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off. It has also seen the NFC winning the pre-game coin flip each of the last 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year’s coin flip: 50/50.

2. We’ll Take The Ball

In addition, similar props abound on which team will receive the ball first. The Giants are currently -180.

The reason being, as reported by Joe Fortenbaugh of NationalFootballPost.com is “On Sept 7, 2008, New England played the Kansas City Chiefs, won the toss and elected to receive. That was the day Tom Brady was lost for season with a torn ACL. Since that day, the Patriots have played 65 games - playoffs included - and won the coin toss 28 times. On all 28 occasions, New England elected to defer their choice to the second half and started the game by kicking off.”

3. Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 24 times in 45 previous Super Bowl games.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP’s.

New England’s Tom Brady and New York’s Eli Manning lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the Hilton favors Brady by 11 yards over Manning. You also have to lay an extra -$1.10 more on Brady than Manning in total TD passes for the contest.

4. When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it’s important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

5. Team Scoring Tendencies

Certain edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. Note the Giants have played 19 games this campaign; the Patriots 18:

1Q – New York: 80-81 / 4.21-4.26
1Q – New England: 99-86 / 5.50-4.78

2Q – New York: 135-124 / 8.53–5.37
2Q – New England: 179-100 / 9.94-5.56

3Q – New York: 72-79 / 3.79-4.16
3Q – New England: 151-63 / 8.39-3.50

4Q – New York: 188-145 / 9.89-7.63
4Q – New England: 152-122/ 8.44-6.78

Notice that both teams’ defense has been its stingiest in the 3Q this season.

On the flip side, the Giants’ offense has performed at its best in the final stanza, whereas the Pats’ attack tends to rev up in the 2Q of games.

Incidentally, New England’s defense has been en fuego in the 3Q of its last 10 games, allowing just 20 points. The Patriots have also not allowed a point in any of their last three games during the final quarter.

6. Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVI is New England TE Rob Gronkowski, high ankle sprain and all. He led the Patriots in touchdowns with 17 this season.

Behind Gronkowski is New York WR Victor Cruz. New England’s other TE, Aaron Hernandez and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis make up the leading four candidates.

Over the previous 45 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 18 times. Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson found the end zone first for the Packers against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

7. Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular prop.

One personality prop that fans are sure to be attracted to is Eli Manning completions versus LeBron James points. Manning goes up against the NFL’s 31st ranked pass defense while James and the Miami Heat will be hosting a Toronto Raptors defense that is surrendering less than 95 PPG on the season.

Meanwhile in a Beantown prop, Tom Brady’s touchdown tosses are paired against total team goals scored by the Boston Bruins in their game against the Washington Capitals.

One of our favorites, though, is who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first - with the choices being Teammates, Coach, Family, God, Owner or no one.

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the chances of acknowledging owner Robert Kraft in memory of his recently departed wife Myra. If you like the Giants it’s likely the winner will acknowledge his teammates.

One thing is for sure. It’s a good thing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos will be watching from the sidelines. Otherwise God would have been an odds-on favorite.

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The Bum's All You Need To Know About SB46 + Best Bets !

The Bum's All You Need To Know About SB46 + Best Bets !

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