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NFL (121-85) +98.05 Units
Baltimore @ New England
A few thoughts on this game before the actual play.
Hearing alot about this game this week, there were a couple of things that baffled my mind. The 1st thing is the statement by many that New England did not beat a team with a winning record this season. Fact is: They played 8 teams with a "Winning Record". All that matters is what a team is when you play them, and 8 teams were playing "Winning Football" when they faced New England. What they did 1, 2 or 3 months later, simply means nothing and does not matter. The Patriots can't control how they finished. On the flip side, the Ravens only played 6 teams that had a "Winning Record" when they faced them. I don't want to hear about New England having an easy schedule. It's a ridiculous "Crutch" if that is what you are leaning on in this game.
Next is how badly Baltimore beat New England in the playoffs 2 years ago at home. New England was only a -3.5 favorite in that game and at the time, they were reeling just a little bit. In their previous game 7 days earlier, they lost Wes Welker for the postseason with a torn ACL. They were scrambling to replace the heartbeat of the receiving corp and it isn't a very offense to figure out and replace a guy like Welker. If you don't believe their offense is that hard to figure out as a WR, just ask Ochocinco. He is 6th on the team in receptions with 15. He has been healthy all year but he still doesn't have a grasp on the offense in week 20 and he still comes off the field when they go to the no huddle because he gets lost out there. He wasn't the 1st who couldn't figure it out either. My point is simple. Losing Welker for that game took a lot of wind out of the Patriots sail for that game. The Ravens doubled Moss all day and Brady's other 4 top receivers in that game were Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. Switch those 4 out for Welker, Gronkowski, Branch and Hernandez for this matchup and i think you see a totally different team. Instead of L. Maroney starting at RB, you have Green-Ellis and Ridley now. Again, a big improvement. To be fair, the Ravens had D. Mason and M. Clayton starting and they now have a improved duo of Boldin and Smith. I think when you look at the differences, it is improved on one side and drastically different on the other. That game has no bearing on this one imo.
The biggest question i have is how do the Ravens
A) Put pressure on Brady
B) Cover both TE's
?
I'm struggling to answer that one because i'm not sure there is an answer. One maybe, both? I don't know.
No team in the history of the NFL has had 2 TE's with 800 or more receiving yards in the same season. Hernandez and Gronkowski both went over 900 yards this season. Gronkowski had the best season ever by a TE in this league. He set the record for receiving yards & TD's by a TE, in the same season. You double him and Hernandez will run by every LB in this league. You double him too and Welker will catch 15 balls. Cover all 3 somehow and you will have Branch and Ochocinco running free down each sideline. You get my point.
If you do all of that and get no pressure on Brady, he will still pick you apart.
The Patriots O-Line was as healthy as it has been all season for the 1st time last week. They use 7 guys regularly and 4 have been to a Pro Bowl. I like their chances of holding their own on Sunday.
I think turnovers could play a huge role in this game. New England was 3rd in the NFL and 1st in the AFC with a +17 turnover margin. No other team in the AFC was even at +8 or better. The Ravens were 12th in the League at +2. The Patriots defense may give up a lot of yards (31st in the League), but they are very oppurtunistic and they are ranked in the upper half of the League (15th) in the most important category, points allowed. They are a bend but don't break defense.
The return of LB Brandon Spikes last week was huge. He is the key to that New England defense for stopping the run. He missed the last 8 weeks of the regular season and his return to the LB spot shouldn't be ignored. It allows them to move LB Ninkovich around more and he has had a huge impact on this season already. They also got S Patrick Chung back in week 17 after he missed 7 straight games. Both are huge additions to this defense and it will make a big impact on depth and talent going forward. Point being, aside from the numbers, this defense is healthy at the right time of the season.
Now on to some numbers .......
The Ravens defense only faced one Top 10 offense in ypg. all season and that was the San Diego Chargers. They went on the road for that game and the Chargers blew them out 34-14. The Chargers defense ranked 7 spots lower than New England in ppg. allowed this season and it didn't seem to matter.
If you want to count vs ppg. offense, Houston is 10th so they played two teams. Houston and San Diego. The Ravens played virtually a perfect game last week vs Houston with zero penalties, zero turnovers, 17 points off of turnovers and vs a Rookie QB, at Home ... and they almost lost late, and needed a pick in their own territory to secure the win. Not a good sign if you ask me.
New England had 4 games this year vs a top 10 yardage and scoring defense. They went (3-1), losing at Pittsburgh.
The Ravens were only (4-4) on the road this year. They simply didn't play well away from home. Yes, they beat Pittsburgh but they also lost to Jacksonville and Seattle. That would be Blaine Gabbert and Tavaris Jackson.
Ravens (Road)
PPG. Scored 19.9
PPG. Allowed 18.4
Patriots (Home)
PPG. Scored 32.3
PPG. Allowed 18.2
Looking at the above numbers, you will see that in this situation, the defenses are almost a draw at 18.4 and 18.2 ppg. with the Patriots having the slight edge (Believe it or not). The glaring difference is on offense at 19.9 and 32.3 ppg.
The great thing about numbers is, as hard as they are to believe at times, numbers do not lie.
Pressure is a funny thing and imo, it is on the Ravens in this matchup. On one side you have a coach that has been to 6 SB's and Won 5 and a QB that has been to 4 SB's and Won 3. I think they have proven that they can handle the pressure just fine thank you. On the other side, you have a coach still searching for his 1st and a QB feeling a ton of pressure from his own teammates. Flacco can say it's no big deal having Ed Reed call him out but you can guarantee he is feeling it. Not a good situation all the way around the week of a big game. I think it shows who is feeling the pressure in this one.
New England has talked a ton about that game 2 years ago in Gillette andthey admit they were embarrassed. They also admit that they have not forgotten it. New England + Motivation has equalled a very tough team to beat over the last 10 years. Keep that in mind.
I respect the Ravens defense and the Series History in this one and that is why i am teasing it. New England has a great record against the Ravens. They have Won 6 of the last 7 against them but many have been close and i will respect that.
New England is (24-3) @ Home the last 3 years and i like them to Win and Cover but i'm just going to tease the game in case it is closer than i think in the end.
Games in Foxboro this season averaged 50.5 ppg.
Last season in Foxboro games averaged 53.1 ppg.
The last 4 games in this series have averaged 47.3 ppg.
That is why i'm teasing it with the Over
5* "7 PT." Teaser = New England (Pk) - "OVER (43.5) -130
New England 31 Baltimore 20
GOOD LUCK
Baltimore @ New England
A few thoughts on this game before the actual play.
Hearing alot about this game this week, there were a couple of things that baffled my mind. The 1st thing is the statement by many that New England did not beat a team with a winning record this season. Fact is: They played 8 teams with a "Winning Record". All that matters is what a team is when you play them, and 8 teams were playing "Winning Football" when they faced New England. What they did 1, 2 or 3 months later, simply means nothing and does not matter. The Patriots can't control how they finished. On the flip side, the Ravens only played 6 teams that had a "Winning Record" when they faced them. I don't want to hear about New England having an easy schedule. It's a ridiculous "Crutch" if that is what you are leaning on in this game.
Next is how badly Baltimore beat New England in the playoffs 2 years ago at home. New England was only a -3.5 favorite in that game and at the time, they were reeling just a little bit. In their previous game 7 days earlier, they lost Wes Welker for the postseason with a torn ACL. They were scrambling to replace the heartbeat of the receiving corp and it isn't a very offense to figure out and replace a guy like Welker. If you don't believe their offense is that hard to figure out as a WR, just ask Ochocinco. He is 6th on the team in receptions with 15. He has been healthy all year but he still doesn't have a grasp on the offense in week 20 and he still comes off the field when they go to the no huddle because he gets lost out there. He wasn't the 1st who couldn't figure it out either. My point is simple. Losing Welker for that game took a lot of wind out of the Patriots sail for that game. The Ravens doubled Moss all day and Brady's other 4 top receivers in that game were Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken, Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. Switch those 4 out for Welker, Gronkowski, Branch and Hernandez for this matchup and i think you see a totally different team. Instead of L. Maroney starting at RB, you have Green-Ellis and Ridley now. Again, a big improvement. To be fair, the Ravens had D. Mason and M. Clayton starting and they now have a improved duo of Boldin and Smith. I think when you look at the differences, it is improved on one side and drastically different on the other. That game has no bearing on this one imo.
The biggest question i have is how do the Ravens
A) Put pressure on Brady
B) Cover both TE's
?
I'm struggling to answer that one because i'm not sure there is an answer. One maybe, both? I don't know.
No team in the history of the NFL has had 2 TE's with 800 or more receiving yards in the same season. Hernandez and Gronkowski both went over 900 yards this season. Gronkowski had the best season ever by a TE in this league. He set the record for receiving yards & TD's by a TE, in the same season. You double him and Hernandez will run by every LB in this league. You double him too and Welker will catch 15 balls. Cover all 3 somehow and you will have Branch and Ochocinco running free down each sideline. You get my point.
If you do all of that and get no pressure on Brady, he will still pick you apart.
The Patriots O-Line was as healthy as it has been all season for the 1st time last week. They use 7 guys regularly and 4 have been to a Pro Bowl. I like their chances of holding their own on Sunday.
I think turnovers could play a huge role in this game. New England was 3rd in the NFL and 1st in the AFC with a +17 turnover margin. No other team in the AFC was even at +8 or better. The Ravens were 12th in the League at +2. The Patriots defense may give up a lot of yards (31st in the League), but they are very oppurtunistic and they are ranked in the upper half of the League (15th) in the most important category, points allowed. They are a bend but don't break defense.
The return of LB Brandon Spikes last week was huge. He is the key to that New England defense for stopping the run. He missed the last 8 weeks of the regular season and his return to the LB spot shouldn't be ignored. It allows them to move LB Ninkovich around more and he has had a huge impact on this season already. They also got S Patrick Chung back in week 17 after he missed 7 straight games. Both are huge additions to this defense and it will make a big impact on depth and talent going forward. Point being, aside from the numbers, this defense is healthy at the right time of the season.
Now on to some numbers .......
The Ravens defense only faced one Top 10 offense in ypg. all season and that was the San Diego Chargers. They went on the road for that game and the Chargers blew them out 34-14. The Chargers defense ranked 7 spots lower than New England in ppg. allowed this season and it didn't seem to matter.
If you want to count vs ppg. offense, Houston is 10th so they played two teams. Houston and San Diego. The Ravens played virtually a perfect game last week vs Houston with zero penalties, zero turnovers, 17 points off of turnovers and vs a Rookie QB, at Home ... and they almost lost late, and needed a pick in their own territory to secure the win. Not a good sign if you ask me.
New England had 4 games this year vs a top 10 yardage and scoring defense. They went (3-1), losing at Pittsburgh.
The Ravens were only (4-4) on the road this year. They simply didn't play well away from home. Yes, they beat Pittsburgh but they also lost to Jacksonville and Seattle. That would be Blaine Gabbert and Tavaris Jackson.
Ravens (Road)
PPG. Scored 19.9
PPG. Allowed 18.4
Patriots (Home)
PPG. Scored 32.3
PPG. Allowed 18.2
Looking at the above numbers, you will see that in this situation, the defenses are almost a draw at 18.4 and 18.2 ppg. with the Patriots having the slight edge (Believe it or not). The glaring difference is on offense at 19.9 and 32.3 ppg.
The great thing about numbers is, as hard as they are to believe at times, numbers do not lie.
Pressure is a funny thing and imo, it is on the Ravens in this matchup. On one side you have a coach that has been to 6 SB's and Won 5 and a QB that has been to 4 SB's and Won 3. I think they have proven that they can handle the pressure just fine thank you. On the other side, you have a coach still searching for his 1st and a QB feeling a ton of pressure from his own teammates. Flacco can say it's no big deal having Ed Reed call him out but you can guarantee he is feeling it. Not a good situation all the way around the week of a big game. I think it shows who is feeling the pressure in this one.
New England has talked a ton about that game 2 years ago in Gillette andthey admit they were embarrassed. They also admit that they have not forgotten it. New England + Motivation has equalled a very tough team to beat over the last 10 years. Keep that in mind.
I respect the Ravens defense and the Series History in this one and that is why i am teasing it. New England has a great record against the Ravens. They have Won 6 of the last 7 against them but many have been close and i will respect that.
New England is (24-3) @ Home the last 3 years and i like them to Win and Cover but i'm just going to tease the game in case it is closer than i think in the end.
Games in Foxboro this season averaged 50.5 ppg.
Last season in Foxboro games averaged 53.1 ppg.
The last 4 games in this series have averaged 47.3 ppg.
That is why i'm teasing it with the Over
5* "7 PT." Teaser = New England (Pk) - "OVER (43.5) -130
New England 31 Baltimore 20
GOOD LUCK
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