NBA System Play 12/25

[frankb03]

2* Magic/Cavs Under 196

Home teams off 20+ road blow out losses usually come out their next game with a much stronger effort. Starting with defense. The system (60%) supports playing the Under. When the home favorite is -5 or greater the under is a 70% play. Orlando's been in this roll four times last season and this season. They are 0-4 OU. 0-1 this year.

I'd play this more but I hate playing NBA totals and I'm worried that both teams will want to put on a offensive show on ESPN.

[frankb03]

I checked the data looking further back. I don't know if this is a good thing. The last time the Magic went over the total at home after a 20+ road loss was March 2000. 1-13 O/U dating back to the 99/00 season.

[doc mercer]

Frank:

maybe I'm reading this wrong ....
would the further research you do more
conform the Under play tomorrow?

Tnx

[frankb03]

doc, yes! After doing additional research I found the Magic have been under the total 13 of their last 14 games at home off a road loss 20+.

[doc mercer]

Frank:

that is a very STRONG trend ...

I like it for one reason:

I was thinking over originally ...

[frankb03]

I like this play very much. I'd play it higher but I hate playing NBA totals.

[Homer]

frankb03

I'm with you on this one man. Bring this bad boy home. You sold me :D

[frankb03]

Tough loss! The first half killed this play. Neither team played any defense. Orlando shot 56% and Cleveland shot 52%. 118 points scored. I was afraid of a shootout with 2 young teams on "national tv". Game into OT at 194 points.