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**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:26 PM

Spurs Head East To Face Wade-less Miami Heat

This year in the NFL, there were a number of crucial injuries throughout the season that many attributed to the fact that the players were locked out and were subjected to a shorter training camp. The NBA might have things even worse, as it had an even shorter preseason and an even longer lockout, and injuries are really starting to make matters difficult for some of the best teams in the league.

On Tuesday, we are going to see a number of these injury-riddled teams in NBA betting action.

We will start with the Miami Heat against the San Antonio Spurs. The Heat just endured a brutal three-game road trip on the West Coast in which they went 0-3 SU and ATS. To make matters worse, Dwyane Wade suffered an ankle injury that is going to keep him out of the lineup for at least this game against the Spurs, and the possibility is there that he could be in for a long hiatus.

Fortunately for the Heat, they are a lot deeper this season than they were a year ago, but can Norris Cole step into the starting lineup and really make the same sort of impact that D-Wade does on a nightly basis? That’s the big question in South Beach right now. If the rookie from Cleveland State can’t get the job done, the Spurs might be in line for their first road victory of the season, as they are 0-4 SU and ATS as visitors this season.

Remember though, that these Spurs are still playing without TJ Ford (hamstring) and Manu Ginobili (hand), and both are going to remain out of the lineup for at least another few weeks.

Tip time is slated for 7:30 (ET) on Tuesday night.

The Chicago Bulls have the best record in basketball at 12-2 despite dealing with their share of injuries as well. Derrick Rose missed a game with a toe injury last week but is back in the lineup, but neither CJ Watson (elbow) nor Richard Hamilton (groin) have been able to get back in the fold. These two have only combined to play in one game since New Year’s Day, and both are up in the air for Tuesday as well.

Chicago will play its fourth game in five days when the Bulls host the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday night. The Suns are struggling offensively, averaging just 93.8 PPG, and going against a defense that has held three of its last five foes in the 60s isn’t likely going to make matters any easier.

The Suns have dropped four in a row both SU and ATS, and this is the second game of a brutal five-game road trip through the beginning of next week.

The ball gets tossed at 8:00 (ET) at the United Center.

Another injury of note to keep an eye on this Tuesday is the hamstring injury to Chris Paul. The Los Angeles Clippers can ill-afford to lose CP3 for any period of time, and they have to be thrilled that his MRI came back negative over the weekend.

Tuesday’s game against the Utah Jazz is going to be the second game in as many days for the Clippers, who enter Monday having gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games. This will be just the fourth road game of the season for Los Angeles, who is only 1-2 ATS as the visitor this season.

This 9:00 (ET) tip can be seen on local FOX Sports networks.

The rest of the NBA betting slate should be a good one as well on Tuesday. Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic engage in a Southeast Division battle with the Charlotte Bobcats at 7:00. The Golden State Warriors, who have already endured a huge injury of their own to Stephen Curry, have to come to Quicken Loans Arena for a fight with the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:00. There are also two 8:00 tip times, as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Denver Nuggets, while the Houston Rockets look to improve on their 4-1 SU and ATS mark at home against the Detroit Pistons.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:27 PM

Calgary Flames Begin Trek At Streaking Sharks

Late last Thursday night, the Calgary Flames (21-20-5) made a trade with the Montreal Canadiens to bring back left winger Michael Cammalleri in hopes of igniting the team for a playoff run. Cammalleri enjoyed a career year with the Flames back in 2008-09 when he scored 39 goals with 43 assists.

Rene Borque, Patrick Holland and a second-round pick were sent back to Montreal in the deal.

Cammalleri should help spark the Flames offense, which ranks 26th in the league with just 2.4 goals per game. He scored a goal in his debut against the Los Angeles Kings Saturday, but the Flames fell 4-1.

Calgary gets a tough matchup on the road this Tuesday night against the San Jose Sharks, who hold one of the NHL’s best records at 25-12-5. The Sharks are 10-2-2 in their last 12 games and 6-1-1 in the month of January. Calgary is just 8-14-3 on the road this season, currently mired in a five-game road losing streak that includes a humiliating 9-0 loss to Boston in their last road game. Tuesday night’s game starts at 10:30 p.m. (ET).

The Ottawa Senators (25-15-6) and Nashville Predators (25-15-4) enter Monday’s action tied for the longest current winning streaks in the NHL at four games. They both head on the road for tough tests Tuesday night.

Ottawa is a scorching-hot 8-0-1 in its last nine games, and will look to keep the momentum rolling in Toronto against the Maple Leafs. The Leafs (22-17-5) have lost two straight but are a respectable 12-6-4 at home as Toronto is generally a tough place to play. Ottawa is sixth in the league in goals per game with 3.1 but 27th in goals against with 3.1 per game; the Senator’s like to play up-tempo. The game is set to start at 7:00 p.m. (ET).

Nashville is currently riding a 7-1 record thanks in large part due to elite goaltender Pekka Rinne, who has allowed two goals or less in six of those seven wins. The Predators will have to travel into the Eastern Conference Tuesday night to take on the first-place New York Rangers. New York (28-11-4) has lost two of its last three games, but is still 11-3 in its last 14 games and an impressive 13-4-2 overall this season at home.

The game will be televised nationally on the NBC Sports Network and will begin at 7:30 p.m. (ET).

Both Ottawa and Nashville have games Monday night as well, with Ottawa hosting Winnipeg and Nashville on the road against the New York Islanders. Keep an eye on each team’s goaltender decisions and consider fatigue may be a factor Tuesday night as the Rangers and Maple Leafs have Monday night off.

Out West, the Los Angeles Kings (22-15-9) have earned points in all but one of their 13 games under new head coach Darryl Sutter (7-1-5), but that translates to a 7-6 SU record in hockey betting. One of those seven wins came on New Year’s Eve against the Vancouver Canucks in a decisive 4-1 decision. Vancouver (28-15-3) will have a chance to avenge that loss at home Tuesday night at 10:00 p.m. (ET). The Canucks should be extra fired up after losing at home to Anaheim Sunday night as a -220 favorite.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:30 PM

Tuesday's Tips

January 17, 2012

With both teams in bounce-back mode following poor performances on Saturday, Michigan and Michigan St. will square off Tuesday night in Ann Arbor.

Most betting shops are listing the Spartans as 1 1/2-point favorites with a total of 133.

Michigan (14-4 straight up, 8-7 against the spread) dropped to 4-2 in Big Ten play when it fell victim to a look-ahead situation in Saturday’s embarrassing 75-59 loss at Iowa as a 2 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Tim Hardaway Jr. (15.7 points per game) couldn’t buy a bucket in Iowa City, missing 11 of his 13 shots from the floor including all eight attempts from 3-point range.

Freshman point guard Trey Burke scored a team-high 19 points in the losing effort, while Zack Novak finished with 14 points and eight rebounds.

Michigan St. (15-3 SU, 10-5 ATS) saw its 15-game winning streak snapped in an 81-74 loss at Northwestern as a five-point road favorite. The Spartans had no answers for the Wildcats' terrific combination of John Shurna and Drew Crawford, who combined for 42 points.

Keith Appling scored a team-high 17 points, while Draymond Green contributed 14 points, 14 boards and four assists. Green is averaging team-bests in points (15.8 PPG), rebounds (9.9 RPG), steals (1.5 per game) and blocked shots (1.2 per).

John Beilein’s squad has won all 11 of its home games while compiling a 4-4 spread record. This will be the Wolverines’ first home underdog situation.

Michigan swept a pair of regular-season meetings against its in-state rivals last year, winning 70-63 as a one-point home favorite at Crisler Arena on March 5. Hardaway dropped 20 points on the Spartans, while Jordan Morgan scored 10 points on 5-of-6 shooting and held Green to seven points on 3-of-14 shooting from the field.

When they collided at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Jan. 27, the Wolverines snapped a six-game losing streak and began their march from mediocrity to the second round of the NCAA Tournament with a 61-57 triumph as 11-point underdogs.

The ‘over’ is 9-5-1 overall for Michigan, 4-4 in its home games. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight for the Wolverines. Meanwhile, the Spartans have watched the ‘over’ go 8-6-1 overall, 7-1 in their last eight outings.

This game will come off the board at 7:00 p.m. Eastern and will be televised on ESPN.

In the second game of the ESPN doubleheader, Kentucky (17-1 SU, 3-13-1 ATS) will take on Arkansas as a 17 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ As of early this morning, most spots had the total at 147.

After covering in its first three games, John Calipari’s squad has been absolutely atrocious for our purposes. To be exact, the Wildcats are 0-13-1 ATS since they took the cash in a Nov. 19 win over Penn St. They are 2-10-1 ATS as double-digit favorites.

UK played from behind for most of the day before capturing a 65-62 win Saturday at Tennessee. The ‘Cats never really threatened to cover the number as 9 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Michael Kidd-Gilchrist came up big at crunch time, finishing with 17 points and 12 rebounds. Anthony Davis added 18 points, eight boards, four blocked shots, two assists and a pair of steals.

Arkansas (13-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won eight of its last nine games, including Saturday’s 69-60 win over LSU as a five-point home favorite. B.J. Young scored a team-high 19 points and dished out four assists. Julysses Nobles and Madracus Wade were also in double figures with 15 and 14 points, respectively.

Mike Anderson’s team has been an underdog three times this season, going 0-3 versus the number. The Razorbacks have only been double-digit ‘dogs once, losing 75-62 at UConn as 12 ½-point puppies.

The Hogs suffered a huge loss early in the year when their best player, power forward Marshawn Powell, went down with a season-ending injury. The junior post player averaged 19.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in the first two games.

When these SEC West adversaries met in Fayetteville last year, Arkansas won a 77-76 decision in overtime as a seven-point home ‘dog. Powell had 22 points and 10 boards.

The ‘over’ is 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these schools. The ‘under’ is 11-6 overall for UK, 6-0 in its games played outside of Rupp Arena (3-0 away, 3-0 neutral). The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Hogs, but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in their home contests.

Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Kansas handed Baylor its first loss last night in Lawrence, cruising to a 92-74 win as a 6 ½-point home favorite. Thomas Robinson enjoyed another stellar effort, producing 27 points and 14 rebounds against one of the nation’s premier front lines.

--Memphis freshman Adonis Thomas is most likely done for the season after sustaining a foot injury at practice last Friday. The injury will require surgery and keep him out for 2-3 months. There’s an outside chance he could return for the NCAA Tournament, but the Tigers shouldn’t count on it. Thomas, a McDonald’s All-American, was averaging 10 points and four rebounds per game.

--FSU is in a classic letdown spot tonight when it hosts Maryland in Tallahassee. As of early this morning, most books had the Seminoles favored by 11 ½ with a total of 133. Leonard Hamilton’s team demolished North Carolina by a 90-57 count Saturday as a healthy home underdog.

--Middle Tennessee owns the nation’s best spread record with a 14-3 ATS mark. The Blue Raiders return to the court Thursday vs. Arkansas St.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:33 PM

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

January 17, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bobcats are 10-0-1 ATS (8.4 ppg) since February 13, 2005 on the road after a home loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Nuggets are 0-10 OU (-18.5 ppg) since February 10, 2009 on the road as a favorite with at least one day of rest when their opponent has averaged fewer than 18 points per game from the free throw line at home season-to-date.

PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:

The Magic are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since March 11, 2011 after a win in which Dwight Howard had at least 5 turnovers.

CHOICE TREND:

The Bulls are 8-0-1 ATS (12.9 ppg) since April 10, 2007 at home off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Bucks are 0-9 OU (-11.5 ppg) since March 12, 2010 when facing a non-conference team they lost to as a dog in their first match-up of the season.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:35 PM

Scoring woes continue

January 17, 2012

NBA Scheduling and the Impact on Handicapping

The NBA season is underway and I for one couldn’t be more excited. I’ve always loved professional basketball and really enjoy watching and handicapping it. In my opinion they are the greatest athletes of the professional sports and what they can do on a basketball court is truly amazing.

We’ve had some tremendous success handicapping the NBA in the past and a part of that can certainly be attributed to our passion for the game itself. This season we’ve been charting, grafting, analyzing the NBA as per usual but we’ve noticed some startling trends early on and offer the following explanations.

If you haven’t been paying attention to the NBA then you’ve missed some dramatic early season trends taking place. Favorites and Unders have been cashing in at a startling rate this season with the Chalks going 104-73 ATS with Unders cashing in with an overall record o f 69-105 (under) or 60%.

So what is causing this current trend in the NBA?

We feel scheduling has a lot to do with what’s currently trending in the NBA. One NBA insider we talked with mentioned how the shortened exhibition season and lockout has affected the current state of the game. Without early season preparation, conditioning and more games in less nights coaches have lengthened their rotations and slowed the tempo of games. Players are still adjusting and scoring has dropped considerably.

Teams are shooting just 44 percent and averaging just 94.3 points per game through an average of 10 games per season in 2012. Those are the lowest numbers in the NBA in that time frame since 2003-04. Last year in the first 10 games of the season teams were averaging 100.7 PPG and shooting 45.7%.

Another factor to consider is the pace of play. Teams are averaging 2.2 less possessions per game through 10 games this season compared to the first 10 games in 2010-11. Now if we look at last NBA season as a whole we find additional statistics that support why games have been lower scoring in 2012.

Thus far this season teams are averaging 39.7 PPG in the paint compared to last season’s number of 41.1. Overall fast break points last year was 13.8 PPG while that number has dropped to 13.0 this season. The defenses have also had an impact on the low-scoring games too. Over the course of the season last year teams allowed an average effective field goal percentage of .497%. This year that number has dipped to .480 percent.

Will this trend continue?

Yes we are going to continue to see low-scoring games in the NBA because rest is such a critical factor in the outcome of games. In talking with a NBA coach they mentioned how tired players tend to settle for shooting jumpers on the perimeter instead of driving to the hoop when they get fatigued.

Our points in the paint statistics support that thinking along with free throw attempts per game averages which are also down this year (23.1) compared to last (24.4). Obviously less free throws made or attempted in a game can have a dramatic effect on games going over or under the total. We will continue to monitor the condensed schedule and how it impacts handicapping but rest assured (pardon the pun) the oddsmakers will start adjusting their numbers and the Over/Under records will start to even out. New to the NBA players and coaches in 2012 are playing three games in three nights. One trend we’ve noticed this season is this:

When teams are scheduled to play their third game in a three-day span they tend to go ‘under’ in the first two games of that three game span. As of this piece (Jan. 16th) the ‘under’ is 5-14 in that situation.

With that being said, take a look at playing ‘under’ in the Nets games on Jan. 21 (host Oklahoma City) and Jan. 22 (host Charlotte) as they will be playing their third game in three nights on Jan. 23 (at Chicago).

Ironically, those same teams playing in that third game of a three night span are 8-3 ATS (consider a play on the Nets plus the points over the Bulls on Jan. 23). Overall when a game features a team playing without rest this season the ‘under’ is 43-74 which is 63%.

We will continue to use every tool at our disposal to give users an edge when it comes to handicapping the NBA.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:37 PM

Heat try to snap 3-game skid hosting Spurs

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (9-4)

at MIAMI HEAT (8-4)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -7, Total: 201

While the Spurs are have gotten by just fine without star guard Manu Ginobili so far, they’ll still be looking for their first road win of the year when they visit Miami Tuesday night.

The Spurs are 6-2 SU and 3-5 ATS since Ginobili went down, but they dropped both their road games, SU and ATS, without him at Oklahoma City and Milwaukee. They’re now 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. They made one visit to Miami last year, with both teams at full strength, and they were blown out of the building in a 110-80 loss. The line is a little lower than it would be due to Dwyane Wade’s doubtful status (sprained ankle), but the Heat have won all three games, SU and ATS, that Wade has missed this year. MIAMI is the pick to win and cover.

The FoxSheets have a four-star trend working in favor of the Heat:

Play On - Home favorites (MIAMI) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (54-18 over the last 5 seasons, 75%, +34.2 units. Rating = 4*).

An amazing 23 of 27 (85%) games in this series have gone Under the Total since 1996, and this FoxSheets trend also expects the UNDER to occur on Tuesday.

Play Under - Any team (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%). (44-18 since 1996.) (71%, +24.2 units. Rating = 2*).

The Heat are licking their wounds after a brutal West Coast swing. They dropped all three of their games, two in overtime, to the Warriors, Clippers and Nuggets. They seemed to have trouble adjusting to the return of Wade (19.6 PPG, 5.4 APG). After missing three games with a foot injury, he averaged 21.0 PPG but shot just 42.6% from the field and posted an average plus/minus of -5.0. His performance in Denver Friday night was one of his worst in recent memory, as he scored just 12 points on 6-for-14 shooting and failed to get to the line for just the 11th time in 643 career regular and postseason games.

While LeBron James continues to be the NBA’s best player (29.5 PPG on 57.8% FG, 8.2 RPG, 7.4 APG), the third member of the big three, PF Chris Bosh (19.2 PPG on 50.3% FG, 8.1 RPG), is not shooting the ball very well. He has failed to make half of his FG attempts in any of his past four games, going 25-for-60 (41.7%) from the floor.

The Spurs are a drastically different team on the road due to their reliance on the three-pointer. At home, they’re shooting 48.0% from the field and hitting 42.6% of their threes, averaging 103.4 PPG. On the road, they’re shooting 45.2% from the field and hitting just 31.7% of their threes, averaging 95.0 PPG.

After the back-to-back road losses, the Spurs moved rookie SF Kawhi Leonard (8.2 PPG, 50.5% FG) into the starting lineup. He’s averaged 13.2 PPG and hit 56.9% of his shots, with 6.8 RPG over his past five games. PG Tony Parker (16.0 PPG, 7.5 APG) has carried most of the offensive load with Ginobili out, averaging 17.8 PPG and 7.9 APG over the eight games without him. PF Tim Duncan (12.8 PPG, 6.9 RPG) has also rebounded from a slow start, averaging 14.3 PPG and 8.0 RPG in the eight games without Ginobili.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:39 PM

No. 2 Kentucky aims for 10th straight win Tuesday

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (13-4)

at KENTUCKY WILDCATS (17-1)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kentucky -17.5, Total: 147

After gutting out a pair of tough road wins, No. 2 Kentucky returns home Tuesday to take on an Arkansas team that hasn’t won outside of Fayetteville this year. The Wildcats are 44-0 at home under John Calipari, and they are currently riding a nine-game SU win streak.

The Razorbacks are 0-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games this year, losing by an average score of 78-67 in the four contests. And they have dropped six straight meetings in Lexington, going 1-5 ATS in this stretch. But only one of the Hogs’ past eight losses in this series has been by more than 17 points, and Arkansas won the lone meeting last year at home, 77-76 in overtime. The Wildcats have been horrible against the spread this year, going 1-13 ATS in their past 14 games. Kentucky will win this game by pounding it down low to its talented big men, but ARKANSAS will hang around and keep the final margin under 15 points.

This rare six-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Razorbacks:

KENTUCKY is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 3 straight games this season. The average score was KENTUCKY 75.5, OPPONENT 58.4 - (Rating = 6*).

Many of the key players in Arkansas’ OT win over Kentucky last year are gone, including Razorbacks star Marshawn Powell, who had 22 points and 10 boards in that win. Powell suffered a season-ending knee injury earlier this season. The fast-paced Arkansas offense is led by guard B.J. Young (15.0 PPG, 52% FG, 44% 3-pt FG) who came off the bench to score a team-high 19 points in Saturday’s 69-60 win over LSU. He also scored 24 in the team’s most impressive win of the season, beating Mississippi State 98-88 on Jan. 7. Since 2012 began, Young is averaging 18.5 PPG on 60% FG (7-of-13 on threes) in four games.

But this is far from a one-man show, as all nine Razorbacks played at least 18 minutes in the win over LSU. Julysses Nobles (9.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG) had 15 points and six boards, Mardracus Wade (11.0 PPG, 49% 3-pt FG) added 14 points and five steals and 6-foot-8 freshman Devonta Abram (5.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) ripped down 13 rebounds in 22 minutes of action before fouling out against the Tigers. Arkansas loves to pressure the ball all over the court, averaging 9.3 steals per game (13th in nation) and the in-your-face defense has held nine opponents to under 35% FG this season.

The Wildcats have been extremely efficient on offense this year, ranking 20th in the nation in points (79.3 PPG) and 23rd in field-goal percentage (48.3% FG). But they have scored just 66.5 PPG on 41.5% FG in the past two games. Five Kentucky players average 10+ points, led by Doron Lamb (14.0 PPG). He had scored at least eight points in every game this year before tallying just four on 1-of-7 shooting at Tennessee on Saturday. Freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (13.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG) had a huge game against the Vols (17 points, 12 rebounds) and has really been attacking the glass lately, with 50 rebounds in his past five games. However, Kidd-Gilchrist was just 6-of-21 (29%) from the floor during the two-game road trip. Fellow frosh Anthony Davis (13.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG) has been the team’s most consistent performer on both ends of the court. He has averaged 15.6 PPG during a seven-game streak of double-figure scoring and leads the NCAA with 4.6 blocks per game.

UK star forward Terrence Jones has seen a statistical drop in his sophomore season (11.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) as compared to his outstanding freshman campaign (15.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG). This dip is partly due to a dislocated finger, but Jones has actually shot better this season (48% FG, 40% 3-pt FG) than last year (44% FG, 33% 3-pt FG). Freshman Marquis Teague (10.7 PPG, 4.2 APG) is the other Wildcats player averaging double-figures, but he had a rough game at Tennessee, scoring just seven points (3-of-8 FG) with one assist and five turnovers.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:41 PM

No. 9 MSU visits No. 20 Michigan Tuesday

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (15-3)

at MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (14-4)

Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Michigan State -2, Total: 133

The allegiance of Michigan natives will be put to the test when No. 9 Michigan State travels to Ann Arbor to take on No. 20 Michigan on Tuesday night. Michigan has struggled to find success in this series in years past, winning just six of the 24 meetings since 1997.

This is a big game for the Wolverines, who have already lost two games in the Big Ten, while the Spartans have lost just one. The Wolverines are coming off one of those defeats, a 16-point SU and ATS loss to Iowa on the road. Michigan State is coming off an SU and ATS loss as well, at Northwestern, but had won 15 straight SU and four in a row ATS. Overall, the Spartans are 10-5 ATS this season and 4-1 (SU and ATS) on the road. They should be able to continue that dominance by bullying Michigan in the paint. The Spartans grab 40.7 RPG, good for ninth best in the nation, led by Draymond Green (15.8 PPG, 10.1 RPG) who at 6-foot-7 is one of the best rebounders in the country. The Wolverines pull in just 33.8 missed shots per game, ranking 231st in the nation, and have nobody who can compete with Green for boards. Evan Smotrycz leads them in rebounding, but pulls in just 6.3 RPG. Play on MICHIGAN STATE to continue its strong ATS play this season by winning the battle on the interior over the rebounding-deficient Wolverines.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also like the Spartans to win and cover on Tuesday.

Play Against - Home teams as an underdog or pick (MICHIGAN) - poor pressure defensive team - forcing <=14 turnovers/game, on Tuesday nights. (95-50 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +40 units. Rating = 2*).

Play Against - A home team (MICHIGAN) - after scoring 60 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more 2 straight games. (112-77 over the last 5 seasons.) (59.3%, +27.3 units. Rating = 1*).

Green is the soul of the Spartans team, pacing the team in points, rebounds, blocks (1.2 BPG) and steals (1.5 SPG). Green (41% 3-pt FG), Brandon Wood (10.1 PPG, 38% on threes) and Keith Appling (12.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG) form the dangerous part of the Michigan State attack. This trio has come into its own since losing its first two games of the season to North Carolina and Duke. Although the Spartans do not have one dominant ball distributor, led by Appling with 3.8 APG, they are the 12th-best passing team in the country with 16.9 APG. Head coach Tom Izzo employs mostly an eight-man rotation, as the top eight players have each averaged at least 17.3 minutes per game.

Michigan is led by two elite scorers, Tim Hardaway Jr. (15.7 PPG) and Trey Burke (14.3 PPG). Hardaway Jr. was miserable in the team’s loss to Iowa, going just 2-of-13 from the field and 0-of-8 from long range. The 5-foot-11 freshman Burke leads the team in dishing the ball (4.9 APG) and has been consistently good, registering double-digit points in the team’s past 12 games. The duo needs to be constantly guarded from all parts of the court, with the threat to drive but also combining to make 3.2 three-pointers per game. Still, this game is a lost cause for the Wolverines if they do not put up a fight on the boards, something out of Hardaway Jr. and Burke’s hands. Smotryz and Jordan Morgan (5.7 RPG) need to be in top form to physically challenge Green and the other MSU big men to make this a game.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:42 PM

Predators seek 7th straight MSG win Tuesday

NASHVILLE PREDATORS (26-15-4, 56 points)

at NEW YORK RANGERS (28-11-4, 60 points)

Puck drops: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -175, Nashville +155, Total: 5

The Predators look to extend their winning streak to a season-high six games when they travel to New York to face the Eastern Conference-leading Rangers on Tuesday night.

The Predators—who defeated the Islanders 3-1 on Monday afternoon—have won six straight games at Madison Square Garden dating back nearly 12 years. Despite sitting in fourth place in the Central Division, Nashville trails first place St. Louis by only four points and occupies the sixth playoff spot in the Western Conference. G Pekka Rinne (23-11-4, 2.54 GAA, .920 SV Pct.) will finally rest after making 10 straight starts for the Preds after turning aside 36 out of 37 shots in Monday’s victory over the Isles. Anders Lindback (2-4-0, 2.75 GAA, .893 SV Pct.) will start in goal Tuesday trying to win for the first time since Dec. 1. The Rangers have dropped two of their past three and look to bounce back from a lackluster 4-1 loss to Montreal on Sunday. G Henrik Lundqvist (19-9-4, 1.95 GAA, .935 SV Pct.) looks to avoid his third straight loss after allowing, uncharacteristically, seven goals in his past two contests. The Blueshirts have not lost three in a row since starting the season 0-1-2, and with the Preds on the second leg of consecutive games with their No. 2 goalie, NEW YORK is the pick to get back on track in the Big Apple.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also sides with the Rangers:

N.Y. RANGERS are 21-8 ATS (72.4%, +11.9 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was N.Y. RANGERS 3.4, OPPONENT 2.1 - (Rating = 2*).

The FoxSheets also overwhelmingly support the UNDER (+110), including this three-star trend:

Play Under - Any team against the total (N.Y. RANGERS) - good closing team-outscoring opp. by 0.2+ goals/game in third period - 2nd half of the season, after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game. (75-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.4%, +40 units. Rating = 3*).

The Predators struggled to find consistency in the first two months of the season, but have been one of the league’s toughest teams since December 8 with an 11-4-0 record. Nashville’s leading scorer, interestingly enough, is a defenseman—and an elite one at that—in Shea Weber (9 G, 23 A). RW Martin Erat (10 G, 20 A) leads all forwards. The Predators’ other top-tier defenseman, Ryan Suter (5 G, 20 A) will likely miss Tuesday’s game after suffering an upper body injury on Monday.

The Rangers’ latest loss, coupled with a Bruins win, shortened their lead atop the Eastern Conference to just one point over Boston. RW Marian Gaborik (23 G, 12 A) continues to lead the Rangers in scoring, as he has all season.

Despite the recent rough patch, the Rangers still rank among the league’s elite in goals allowed, averaging just 2.0 goals per game (3rd in NHL). Top defenseman Marc Staal, who returned during the Winter Classic after missing 10 months with a concussion, will add even more depth to this deep unit. Michael Del Zotto (5 G, 18 A) leads all blue liners in points and he’s only 21 years old.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:43 PM

Tuesday’s betting tips: Spurs take road slump to Miami

Who’s hot

NBA: Cleveland is 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 overall.

NBA: The over is 10-2-1 in Miami’s last 13 home games.

NHL: Ottawa has won eight of its last nine overall.

NCAAB: Michigan is 22-8 against the number in its last 30.

NCAAB: FSU is 12-5-1 against the spread in its last 18 home games.

Who’s not

NBA: San Antonio is 1-11 against the spread in its last 12 road games.

NBA: Milwaukee is 6-16-1 against the number in its last 23 meetings with Denver.

NHL: Minnesota is 3-13 in its last 16 overall and winless in its last nine road games.

NCAAB: Georgetown is 2-10 against the spread in its last 12 Big East games.

NCAAB: Kentucky is 3-13-1 against the number this season.

Key stat

34.7 – The Arkansas Razorbacks are shooting just 34.7 percent in three consecutive road losses. They visit Kentucky on Tuesday. The Wildcats hold their opposition to just 35.6 percent shooting from the field, ranking No. 2 in the nation.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Mikko Koivu, Minnesota Wild – The Wild are expected to be without their captain for at least a month as he recovers from a left shoulder injury. The All-Star suffered the injury following a check from St. Louis Blues forward Vladimir Sobotka during the first period of Saturday's game. Koivu leads the Wild in scoring with nine goals and 24 assists on the season. Minnesota visits the Flyers as a +170-underdog Tuesday.

Game of the day

Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Wolverines (2, 133)

Notable quotable

"The Ravens, they’re the best team we’ve played all year. They present a ton of challenges in all three phases of the game. When you watch them, like you watched them (Sunday), they’re physical, they’re tough, they can cover, they have some of the best players in the history of the NFL at their positions like (Terrell) Suggs, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata." – Patriots quarterback Tom Brady on Sunday’s matchup with the Baltimore Ravens. New England is set as a 7.5-point favorite.

Notes and tips

With the return of Tyrus Thomas to the Charlotte Bobcats’ frontcourt, coach Paul Silas has put the pedal down with a speedier starting lineup. Rookie Kemba Walker is teaming in the backcourt with D.J. Augustin, dropping big-body Boris Diaw to the bench. The new guard combo is giving the Bobcats some pop on offense. Walker and Augustin have combined for 77 points the last two games. Charlotte is a 12-point underdog at Orlando on Tuesday.

The Toronto Maple Leafs with give goaltender James Reimer his first start in two weeks Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators. Reimer, who suffered a concussion in his sixth game of the season, has had a hard time getting into the lineup since being cleared to play. Reimer is 3-0-1 in his last four starts against the Senators and the Leafs are set as -115 favorites.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:48 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 16

Michigan State got swept by Michigan LY, losing by 4-7 points, after Spartans had won 10 of previous 12 series games; State is 2-3 in last five visits here. Wolverines are 4-0 at home, 0-2 on road in conference play; they're 6-3 vs top 100 teams. Spartans had 15-game win streak snapped at Northwestern Saturday, but they're 4-1 in true road games, with wins at Gonzaga/Wisconsin. Big Dozen home teams are 10-2 vs spread when number is 5 or less points.

Georgetown won its last six games vs DePaul, winning last three visits here by 20-16-17 points; Hoyas are 8-0 vs teams not in top 100, with seven of eight wins by 14+ points- they're 3-1 in true road games, with wins by 2-3-20 points, and loss at West Virginia. Blue Demons is 1-4 in conference, with all four losses by 16+ points. Big East single digit home underdogs are 7-7 vs spread. Georgetown holds opponents to 27.6% on the arc, 11th-best mark in country.

Auburn won four of last five games with LSU, winning last two visits to Maravich Arena by 4-9 points, but they're 0-5 vs top 100 teams so far this season, with 15-point loss at Kentucky closest of the five. Auburn is 1-3 on road, with win at Hawai'i, and losses by 22-29-30 points. SEC home favorites are 6-3 vs spread, 3-2 if they're laying double digits. LSU lost three of last four games after its 7-game winning streak- they force turnovers on 24.5% of possessions, #27 mark in country.

Texas Tech won three of last four games with Oklahoma, but lost five of last six visits here, losing by 12-14-2-21-9 points. Red Raiders are 0-4 in Big X play, losing by 8-13-35-13 points; they turn ball over 25.2% of time (#331). Sooners are 6-0 vs teams ranked below #200, with five of six wins by 12+ points- they're 1-3 in Big X, with only win by 9 over K-State. Tech is 1-4 on road, with losses by 6-16-8-13 points. Big X home favorites of 13+ points are 3-2 vs spread.

Purdue (-4) won 79-76 at Iowa Dec 28th, its ninth win in last ten series games, in game where Boilers' bench outscored Iowa's 36-20, but Iowa had 21-7 edge at charity stripe. Hawkeyes lost last four visits here, by 1-22-23-23 points. Purdue scored 75+ points in its three conference Ws, 45-62 in its losses. Iowa is 3-3 in league, with losses by 3-29-34 points; they've won at Wisconsin/Minnesota. Big Dozen home favorites of 9+ points are 4-1 against the spread.

Florida State beat North Carolina by 33 Saturday, now is in less desired role as favorite vs Maryland team they've lost to five of last six games, losing last three meetings by 9-4-16 points. Seminoles won last couple home games by 29-33 points, after losing in triple OT to Princeton the home game before that. Maryland covered in only road game, 79-74 loss at NC State; they're 0-4 vs teams in top 60, losing by 20-26-9-5 points. ACC home favorites are 2-6-1 against the spread.

Arkansas upset Kentucky 77-76 at home in OT LY, ending 7-game skid in series; Hogs lost last four visits to Rupp Arena by 17-2-5-31 points. Hogs won eight of last nine games, but they're 0-3 on road this season, with losses by 13-15-8 points. Kentucky won its last nine games; they are 3-1 vs top 100 teams, winning by 10-1-7 point, with loss to Indiana. SEC home favorites are 6-3 vs spread, 3-2 if they're laying double digits. Wildcats block 21.2% of opponents' shots, #2 mark in country.

Boise State-Colorado State meet for first time as Mountain West rivals; Broncos lost first MWC game at home to Air Force Saturday, a bad loss to start league play with. Boise lost five of last seven games; they're 0-5 on road, losing away games by 10-19-17-9-13 points. Colorado State is #5 in country behind arc, making 42.9% of 3-pointer; they've won seven games in row, winning MWC opener in double OT over TCU, after they held off a good Denver team 79-75 the game before that.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 03:55 PM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 17

Hot Teams
-- Orlando won/covered five of its last six games.
-- Cleveland is 8-3 vs spread in its last 11 games (2-1 as home favorite). Warriors covered four of last five games as an underdog.
-- Bulls won five of last six games, but Rose is hurt, which is damaging.
-- Bucks are 4-0 at home (3-1 vs spread), 0-8 on road.
-- Houston won four of last five games, covered last six.
-- Utah won seven of last eight games, covered six of last seven. Clippers won six of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Bobcats lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Miami lost last three games, all on road (2-2 as home fave). Spurs are 0-4 on road (three of four losses by 10+ points), 9-0 at home.
-- Suns lost their last four games (0-4 vs spread).
-- Nuggets lost three of their last four road games.
-- Pistons lost seven of their last eight games.

Totals
-- Last four Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Last four Golden State road games went over total.
-- Five of last six Miami games went over the total.
-- Four of five Phoenix road games stayed under total.
-- All four Milwaukee home games went over the total.
-- Four of five Houston home games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Utah games stayed under total.

Wear and Tear
-- Bobcats: 11th game/15 nites. Magic: Played yesterday after having the previous three nights off.
-- Warriors: 4th game/6 nites. Cavaliers: 4th game/6 nites.
-- Spurs: 3rd game/5 nites. Heat: Had last three nites off.
-- Suns: 4th game/6 nites. Bulls: 11th game/15 nites.
-- Nuggets: 3rd game/5 nites. Bucks: 7th game/11 nites.
-- Pistons: 8th game/12 nites. Rockets: 6th game/8 nites.
-- Clippers: 3rd game/4 nites. Jazz: 3rd game/4 nites.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-17-2012, 04:16 PM

NBA

Tuesday, January 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET Charlotte +12 500
Orlando - Over 192.5 500

Golden State - 7:00 PM ET Golden State +2 500
Cleveland - Over 197.5 500

San Antonio - 7:30 PM ET Miami -7.5 500
Miami - Over 201 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Chicago -9 500
Chicago - Under 184.5 500

Denver - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee +2.5 500
Milwaukee - Over 201.5 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Houston -7.5 500
Houston - Under 190.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 9:00 PM ET L.A. Clippers +4 500 POD
Utah - Under 190.5 500

-----------------------------------------------------------

NHL

Tuesday, January 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ottawa - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -107 500
Toronto - Under 5.5 500

Winnipeg - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey -170 500
New Jersey - Under 5.5 500

Minnesota - 7:00 PM ET Minnesota +174 500
Philadelphia - Over 5.5 500

Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Carolina +183 500
Pittsburgh - Over 5.5 500

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET NY Islanders +183 500
Washington - Over 5.5 500

Edmonton - 7:00 PM ET Columbus -109 500
Columbus - Over 5.5 500

Nashville - 7:30 PM ET Nashville +147 500
NY Rangers - Over 5 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay +174 500
Tampa Bay - Under 5.5 500

Detroit - 8:30 PM ET Dallas +147 500
Dallas - Over 5.5 500

Los Angeles - 10:00 PM ET Los Angeles +162 500
Vancouver - Under 5 500

Calgary - 10:30 PM ET San Jose -200 500
San Jose - Over 5.5 500

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NCAAB

Tuesday, January 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Georgetown - 7:00 PM ET Georgetown -8 500
DePaul - Under 146.5 500

Auburn - 7:00 PM ET Auburn +10 500
Louisiana State - Under 121 500

Michigan St - 7:00 PM ET Michigan +2 500
Michigan - Under 133 500

Texas Tech - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma -13.5 500
Oklahoma - Over 135 500

Iowa - 8:00 PM ET Purdue -10 500
Purdue - Under 143 500

Maryland - 9:00 PM ET Florida St. -12 500
Florida St. - Over 133 500

Arkansas - 9:00 PM ET Arkansas +17.5 500
Kentucky - Under 147 500

Boise St. - 10:00 PM ET ( Colorado St. -6.5 500 POD )
Colorado St. - Over 152 500

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