Friday Takes

[Homer]

College Foots (62-34) +62.7 Units (Lost last four)


5* Bowling Green -6 1/2

Putting this one in early with line going down to 6 1/2 from 7. I like this matchup big against Northwestern's run defense. May even make it a higher play on friday.

Good Luck

[Homer]

With the way it looks four straight loses. Unless Hawaii can come back.

I'm Making this my personal GOY tomorrow.

10* Bowling Green -6 1/2

Good Luck

Hope everyone had a great Christmas :D

[mbates]

I love the pick Homer. Good Luck on your GOY.

MBATES

[wayne1218]

Good Luck Brother and GOOOO Falcons!

[letswin]

:cool: EXCELLENT..........Let's bring it home!! 10 STAR, ME TOO!!

[Baseball_Nut]

good luck Homer:D

[wallstreet]

Homer

Line now to 6..

Any info on why the line is dropping?

Seems like everyone on BG, smart money moving the line lower???

I want to jump all over this game, but seeing it drop this early makes me wonder what is up???

[Homer]

wallstreet

I see the same thing. But I don't understand why :confused:

I will let you know some stats:

1.) Northwestern and Bowling Green played each other two years ago BG won 43-42 with a huge come back in the fourth quarter. And I don't know if you remember Zak Kustok he was NW quarterback and ran the spread offense to a tee they won the Big Ten the year before. And BG has the same quarterback has that game and the same core offense.

"Trailing the entire game, Bowling Green rallied from a 14-point deficit to defeat the Wildcats, 43-42, on a two-point reception by Cole Magner with 36 seconds remaining. The Falcons scored 29 points in the final period, setting an NCAA record for most points in the fourth quarter by a trailing team."


Now NW passing offense totally sucks and they try to run the ball all the time. They must think they will run the clock on BG or something. That won't happen either. BG is going to have eight man in the box and stop the run that is their plan. And make hime pass the ball.

2.) Josh Harris, will make sure that NW has no idea if its a run or a pass and that NW Defense will be lost for the whole game.

If you ask me this game is a total miss match on both sides of the field and BG wants this game bigtime. Also NW shouldn't even be in a Bowl Game. Toledo N. Illinois are both a lot better then them.

[wallstreet]

Homer

It is interesting..

I have been parusing some other sites seeing what people are saying about the game..

What some are saying is that NW will win the game outright and dont need the points. The reasons being that NW will run through BG easily, that the quality of teams that NW plays is so much better that they are prepared, versus BG who got whooped in their last game, this game really doesnt mean much to them, and they havent played the quality of team that NW is all year, even though they are middle of the pack in their conference.

I dont know about you or others, but in games that I have wagered early on a line thinking it goes HIGHER (in this case it would be BG at 6.5) and the line has gone LOWER into the game, I know I have lost many more than I have won..when a line has gone in a direction with no reason like an injury or the like, I rarely am on the correct side.

I dont want to scare you on the game, based on your huge feel, I was going to throw 200 or more on it..but from what I see, this line should be moving HIGHER, not lower..and I dont make a bet based ONLY on a line move, but it is a key part of a betting decision.

So my long winded post..this makes me quite hesitant to place a wager on the game when everything says BG to me, but the line is telling me different.

I hope we talk a bunch about this, I want TONS of opinions.

[ez winners]

Guys, I really think NW does win this game straight up.

[lewis]

Homer

I am going the other way on this one! I am going 5 units on Northwestern +7 -115 on Friday. At least one of us will hit this.

GL

lewis

[GPW Sports]

For what it's worth, I am on BG as well. I think you have to look at the fact that they beat Purdue on the road and pushed Ohio State to the end before losing close. NW on the other hand had one win over a bowl team, and that was Wisconsin, who played their worst game of the year. The key to this game is if NW can stay in it early. If they get a lead and can run, they will have a shot at the cover. If BG jumps ahead by 10 or 14 points, it's over as NW is not a come-from-behind team. I think both teams a hyped to be here and I think BG is just the better all around team. Miami OH is the only team to pound them this year (twice) and they are primarily a passing team. I look for a score in the neighborhood of BG 31 NW 20.

[Homer]

Wallstreet

Word out of the game this morning.

BG - Coach said that the will pull out all the stops in this game and will play the best game possible. They also will be playing for the whole MAC conference just like Miami (Ohio) did.

NW- Their super happy to be playing in a bowl game and will try their best.

Thats from a local TV channel on the news.

Good Luck on whoever you play if you even play this game

[soupman]

thanks wallstreet
i agree with you bg should romp but line dropping
scares me

[BiloxiUMreb]

Line Move ...Disprespect for MAC...Again

Agree with the concern on the line movement. The only explanation I can come up with is that, ONCE AGAIN, the public is showing its disdain for the MAC....Why? After the performances they've laid down, I don't have a clue. Here, though, is what I DO know. Against this years' bowl participants NW has been outscored 28-15. Their 15 PPG is 53rd best among the 56 bowl participants (only Auburn, GT, and NTSU were more impotent). BG was also outscored by its bowl bound opponents, but only by 29-24. BG outstatted its bowl competition 431-372, while NW went the other way 337-424. BG completed 61.6% of its passes and NW gave up 60.5% of the throws against it. Lastly, BG was 3-2 ATS in its five bowlbound foes while NW was 4-4. This is BG head coach's first bowl game as a head man (he did have two bowl trips as an assistant at NW) and bowl virgins are 11-3 ATS.

THE ONLY QUESTION IN MY MIND IS THE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE EDGE TO NW...IT IS DRAMATIC. Although this could possibly explain the public's fascination with NW, its just not enough for me. I'm gonna take the line move as just an added edge on MY SIDE.

Oh yeah. One more thing. Common opponents were Purdue, Ohio St, and Miami. BG, by far, played each of these opponents much tougher than did NW. BG, in fact, beat Purdue while NW got waxed. In the losing efforts, BG's games much, much closer than NW's.

Just my thoughts...