The Bum's Monday's MLK Best Bets NBA-NCAAB-NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

Heavy NBA Betting Schedule For MLK Day

The Miami Heat are not a better team without Dwyane Wade, but NBA bettors have certainly been happier with him missing this season.

The Heat just dropped the final three games of their 5-game trip. The first two were in overtime at Golden State (111-106) and the Clippers (95-89), renewing criticism of their inability to close games. The last one was a 117-104 loss at Denver on Friday night.

The losses coincided with the return of Wade from a foot injury. He then hurt his ankle versus Denver, with the extent of the injury unknown. Bettors may be happy if he’s out with Miami 3-0 SU and ATS without him, compared to 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS with him.

The Heat are off until Tuesday when they host San Antonio, but there is plenty of solid action before then.

NFL Playoffs lead into NBA Sunday night

The NFL playoffs on Sunday afternoon make way for two interesting NBA games that night. It begins with Denver hosting Utah at 8:00 p.m. (ET) and still feeling good about that Miami win.

Denver (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) is the second-highest scoring team in the league (104.8 PPG), with five guys in double-digits led by point guard Ty Lawson (17.1 PPG). However, the ‘over’ is surprisingly just 6-6. Only Philadelphia has a better ATS record (8-2-1) and the Nuggets are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS at home.

The Jazz (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) will be playing the second half of a back-to-back. They hosted New Jersey on Saturday night as 9-point favorites with the result pending. They’re 1-3 SU and ATS away, scoring just 87 PPG.

Phoenix (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) at San Antonio (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) is at 9:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN. The Suns are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three, most recently home losses to lowly Cleveland (101-90) and New Jersey (110-103).

The New Jersey contest on Friday was played without Steve Nash (thigh, back) and Grant Hill (quad). They’re each questionable for Sunday. Relying on players age 37 and 39 is never a good idea, but much more dangerous in this condensed season. Shannon Brown and Ronnie Price combined for 31 points in their absence last game, but Nash is badly needed.

San Antonio has its own injury problem with Manu Ginobili (hand) out several weeks. This is a deep group that has rookie Kawhi Leonard replacing him after previously going with Gary Neal. The Spurs are perfect at home (8-0 SU) and winless away (0-4 SU). The home ATS mark is 5-3 overall, but 2-3 ATS since Ginobili went out.

Full slate on Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Editor’s note: All games featured Monday are with teams playing Saturday night. Those games are still pending.

The MLK holiday means a heavy 11-game slate starting at 1:00 p.m. (ET). That’s when Chicago (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) visits Memphis (4-6 SU and ATS) on ESPN.

Chicago has the NBA’s best record and is looking like a serious contender to Miami in the East. The Bulls are 4-0 SU and ATS the last four despite Richard Hamilton (groin) missing them all. Derrick Rose came back from a 1-game toe injury to score 25 points in an 88-79 Friday night win at Boston.

The Grizzlies had a nice 94-83 home win over the Knicks on Thursday. They were helped by 26 points by Rudy Gay and ice-cold 37.3 percent shooting from New York. The power forward position has been a problem since Zach Randolph (knee) went out. New starter Marreese Speights had just two points in over 22 minutes last game and that won’t cut it against Chicago.

NBA-TV grabs the coverage at 4:00 p.m. (ET) with Toronto (4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS) at Atlanta (8-4, 7-5 ATS). The Hawks recently suffered a big blow with center Al Horford (pectoral) out until April. Zaza Pachulia is the new starter. The Raptors could be without their center and leading scorer Andrea Bargnani (22.3 PPG) due to a calf injury.

TNT wraps things up at 8:00 p.m. (ET) with a doubleheader of Oklahoma City (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) at Boston (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS), followed by Dallas (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) at the Los Angeles Lakers (9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS).

This will be the first return to Boston for center Kendrick Perkins after the controversial trade last February. He’s not a scorer, but brings defense and toughness to the Western Conference’s best team. The Celtics are reeling with over-the-hill former superstars. They’ve dropped their last three, all at home, scoring 79.3 PPG with the ‘under’ 3-0.

The defending champion Mavericks are 4-0 SU and ATS the last four after starting 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS. The Lakers have won 5-straight (3-2 ATS) and will be coming off an emotional ‘battle of L.A.’ Saturday night versus the upstart Clippers.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 4 Baylor at No. 10 Kansas

Monday, Jan. 16 – 9:30 p.m. (ET) ESPN

Early control of the Big 12 will be on the line Monday at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence where the Bears and Jayhawks tangle. That's assuming both Baylor and Kansas take care of business and don't get caught looking ahead to this game in their Saturday matchups which were still pending. Both crews were at home and laying big points with the Bears 13½-point favorites against Oklahoma State while the Jayhawks were giving up 14 to the Iowa State Cyclones.

Baylor went into the contest against the Cowboys as one of only three unbeatens remaining, Scott Drew's troops racing out to a 16-0 mark and going 5-3-1 against the spread in the process. Don't mistake having just nine lined games on the college basketball betting front with the Bears playing an easy schedule. They got past San Diego State early on, just covering a 9-point spread in a 77-67 win over the Aztecs, and have since taken down BYU, Saint Mary's, West Virginia and Kansas State either on the road or at neutral sites.

Bill Self and Kansas were riding a 6-game win streak into Saturday, that stretch starting after an 80-74 loss to Davidson in the not-so-neutral confines of Kansas City's Sprint Center on Dec. 19. The Jayhawks were whopping 13½-point favorites in that game which caught them in a combination letdown-layoff spot after beating Ohio State nine days earlier.

Kansas had covered four of the five lined games during the win streak, all five of those contests staying 'under' the total and the Jayhawks 11-3 to the low side for the campaign. That contrasts the last two meetings between Kansas and Baylor which have gone 'over.'

This will be the first time Baylor will be involved in a Big 12 matchup between top 10 teams, something Kansas obviously has more experience with. The Jayhawks have dominated this series, going 16-2 overall and 9-0 at home. Baylor's last win over Kansas came in the 2009 conference tournament played in Oklahoma City, and the Bears have covered three of the last five battles.

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Monday

January 16, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Raptors are 11-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since November 25, 2005 on the road with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Magic are 0-11 OU (-12.5 ppg) since April 26, 2009 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line.

PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bulls are 11-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 15, 2010 on the road after a win at home in which Joakim Noah took fewer than 10 shots.

CHOICE TREND:

The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since January 07, 2011 at home after a loss in which Wesley Johnson shot worse than 33% from the field.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Kings are 9-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since November 24, 1995 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.

[StarDust Bum]

Dallas seeks 6th straight win visiting Lakers

DALLAS MAVERICKS (8-5)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (9-5)


Tip-off: Monday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -4, Total: 181.5

Two sizzling-hot teams square off Monday night when Dallas brings a five-game win streak (SU and ATS) into L.A. to face a Lakers team that has won five of six.

The Mavericks have held opponents to a paltry 77.6 PPG on 37.7% FG during their win streak, including limiting Sacramento to a Dallas franchise-record 60 points on 26% shooting (2-of-21 threes) in Saturday night’s 99-60 blowout. Dallas is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 road meetings with the Lakers, winning four of those games outright. The team has also been a stellar bet as a road underdog, going 23-8 ATS (74%) in this role since the start of last season. Kobe Bryant shot a mere 40.7% FG (1-of-10 on threes) against Dallas last season, while Dirk Nowitzki had 22.0 PPG (46% FG) and 10.3 RPG versus the Lakers. The pick here is DALLAS, with a healthy Jason Kidd back in the lineup, to win ATS.

This pair of three-star FoxSheets trends also support picking the Mavericks:

DALLAS is 22-6 ATS (78.6%, +15.4 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 100.3, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 3*).

DALLAS is 23-7 ATS (76.7%, +15.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 99.1, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 3*).

Although the Under is 9-1 in the past 10 Mavericks games, this three-star FoxSheets trend expects the OVER to occur on Monday.

Play Over - Any team (DALLAS) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=43% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 30% or less. (41-14 since 1996.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The Mavs have been tremendous defensively, but the five teams they beat have a combined 18-42 record this year. But their once-struggling offense is coming around now, with 97.8 PPG on 49% FG in the past four games. Kidd didn’t miss a beat in his return to the court after missing four games with a back injury. He racked up six assists and six steals in just 29 minutes of action against Sacramento. His return will certainly help Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging under 20 points per game (17.7 PPG) for the first time since 1999-2000, his second year in the league. Nowitzki scored just 13.8 PPG in the four games without Kidd, but had 14 points in just 20 minutes on Saturday. He also dominated the Lakers during last season’s playoff sweep, tallying 25.3 PPG (57% FG) and 9.3 RPG in the four games.

Dallas is also starting to get better contributions off the bench from Vince Carter and Lamar Odom, who posted ratings of +31 and +32 respectively on Saturday. Carter has scored 16 points in each of the past two games on a combined 13-of-18 shooting (5-of-6 from three-point land). Odom, who will be facing his former team, is shooting an anemic 31% FG this season (19% on threes), but is starting to work the glass with a combined 13 rebounds in 46 minutes over his past two games. Jason Terry (14.9 PPG, 45% 3-pt FG) continues to be one of the best sixth men in the NBA, leading Dallas with 21 points on Saturday, giving him 18.7 PPG in his past three contests.

Kobe Bryant (NBA-high 32.0 PPG) has been scalding hot lately with 40+ points in each of his past four games on 50.4% FG. He dropped 42 (14-of-28 FG) on the Clippers Saturday, but his team still lost 102-94. Bryant has been held in check against Dallas in the past two seasons, scoring just 18.6 PPG on 40% FG (3-of-23 on threes). PF Paul Gasol also struggled in the playoff series loss to Dallas, averaging a mere 12.5 PPG in the four meetings. But Gasol has been productive lately with six straight double-doubles (15.5 PPG, 11.5 RPG). He has worked well inside with C Andrew Bynum who has 16.4 PPG and a whopping 13.8 RPG in his 10 games this season. He’s also blocked 20 shots, while committing just 23 personal fouls.

L.A.’s strong interior defense is a big reason the team ranks third in the league in FG Pct. defense (41.3%). But the Lakers (45.7 RPG, 2nd in NBA) were out-rebounded in Saturday’s loss to the Clippers, and could also struggle against a Dallas team that has 45.9 RPG in the past seven contests, good for fourth-most in the league.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 1 Syracuse hosts slumping Pitt on Monday

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (11-7)

at SYRACUSE ORANGE (19-0)


Tip-Off: Monday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Syracuse -15, Total: 139.5

No. 1 Syracuse looks to start the season 20-0 when it hosts a struggling Pittsburgh team that has dominated the Orange in recent years.

The Panthers may be last in the Big East at 0-5, but they have beaten Syracuse in eight straight regular-season games. They have not lost at the Carrier Dome since a two-point defeat in 2003, winning five straight meetings on the Orange home court. But this year has been a different story as Pittsburgh has six straight losses (1-5 ATS), including dropping games to Wagner, DePaul and Rutgers (by 23 at home). Syracuse is 6-0 (5-1 ATS) in Big East play, outscoring conference opponents by 17.0 PPG. But the Orange are just 7-5 ATS at home while the Panthers are 3-2 ATS on the road, allowing just 66.4 PPG in these five contests. And other than the Rutgers debacle where it shot 21% FG (12-of-57), Pittsburgh has kept games close, losing just one other game this year by more than 10 points, and that was back in November. Syracuse will win this game, but the pick here is for PITTSBURGH to keep the final margin within a dozen points.

This pair of highly-rated FoxSheets trends also backs the Panthers:

Play Against - Home favorites of 10 or more points (SYRACUSE) - after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent. (85-39 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, +42.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Jamie Dixon is 26-11 ATS (70.3%, +13.9 Units) as a road underdog or pick as the coach of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 67.1, OPPONENT 65.2 - (Rating = 2*).

The Under is 8-5 in the past 13 meetings between these schools, and this four-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the UNDER for Monday night:

Jamie Dixon is 21-5 UNDER (80.8%, +15.5 Units) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games as the coach of PITTSBURGH. The average score was PITTSBURGH 63.7, OPPONENT 62.0 - (Rating = 4*).

For the Panthers to stay in this game, SG Ashton Gibbs will have to come up big again. Not only did he score a career-high 29 points in Saturday’s 62-57 loss (ATS win) at Marquette, but Gibbs poured in 24 points with eight rebounds in his last visit to the Carrier Dome two years ago. After shooting 47% FG (49% three-pointers) in his junior season, Gibbs is making just 39% FG (35% on threes) as a senior. Part of the reason for his struggles is the absence of point guard Travon Woodall, who has been out with a groin/abdominal strain, and will not likely return for Monday’s action. Gibbs has been running the point instead of playing his natural 2-guard spot, and hasn’t been great with 3.3 APG and 1.8 turnovers per game.

The one area Pittsburgh should have the advantage in this matchup is rebounding. The Panthers are 22nd in the nation with 39.6 RPG, and have only been out-rebounded once in their past 13 games. Syracuse (37.1 RPG, 78th in nation) has been out-rebounded in six of its past 11 contests. Five different Pittsburgh players average at least five boards per game, led by Nasir Robinson’s 6.8 RPG. Gibbs (16.9 PPG) and Robinson (12.4 PPG) are the only Panthers to average double-figure scoring, but the team is shooting a respectable 46.2% (76th in nation) from the floor this year.

Usually when these teams meet, Pittsburgh has the edge in depth, as Syracuse has historically employed seven or eight-man rotations. But this year, the Orange have 10 different players averaging 12+ minutes. Because of all the fresh bodies, Syracuse has been able to force the third-most turnovers in the nation this year at 18.6 per game. This could be problematic for a Panthers team that committed a costly 10 second-half turnovers in Saturday’s loss to Marquette.

Forward Kris Joseph leads the Orange in scoring at 13.7 PPG, and he had a team-high 13 in Saturday’s 78-55 home win over Providence. Sophomore guard Dion Waiters is arguably the most valuable player on the team despite playing just 22.3 minutes per game off the bench. Waiters (12.9 PPG) has scored 12+ points in seven straight games, and has swiped 2+ steals in each of these seven contests. Seven-foot center Fab Melo also plays 22.3 MPG and leads the team in rebounds (5.4 RPG) and blocks (2.8 BPG). Point guard Scoop Jardine (8.4 PPG, 4.5 APG) started slow this season, but has 28 assists and just nine turnovers in his past four games.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Monday, January 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Memphis +3.5 500
Memphis - Under 177.5 500

Milwaukee - 2:00 PM ET ( Philadelphia -8.5 500 POD )
Philadelphia - Over 187.5 500

Houston - 2:00 PM ET Houston -5.5 500
Washington - Under 189.5 500

Cleveland - 2:00 PM ET Charlotte -2 500
Charlotte - Over 193.5 500

Portland - 3:00 PM ET Portland -5.5 500
New Orleans - Under 181.5 500

Toronto - 4:00 PM ET Atlanta -10.5 500
Atlanta - Under 177.5 500

Oklahoma City - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -2.5 500
Boston - Under 187.5 500

Sacramento - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota -7.5 500
Minnesota - Over 192 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Dallas +4 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 183.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Monday, January 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 3:30 PM ET Louisville +4.5 500
Marquette - Over 135 500

Texas A&M - 5:30 PM ET Missouri -15.5 500
Missouri - Under 133 500

Rider - 7:30 PM ET Rider +9.5 500
Fairfield - Over 142.5 500

Pittsburgh - 7:30 PM ET Syracuse -15 500
Syracuse - Under 138 500

Tennessee St. - 8:30 PM ET Austin Peay -6.5 500
Austin Peay - Over 145 500

Notre Dame - 9:00 PM ET Rutgers -3 500
Rutgers - Under 127 500

Baylor - 9:30 PM ET ( Baylor +5.5 500 POD )
Kansas - Over 136.5 500

Brigham Young - 10:00 PM ET San Diego +15.5 500
San Diego - Over 147.5 500

Idaho State - 10:05 PM ET Portland St. -10 500
Portland St. - Under 145 500

[StarDust Bum]

NHL

Monday, January 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Nashville - 1:00 PM ET NY Islanders +106 500
NY Islanders - Over 5.5 500

Colorado - 4:00 PM ET ( Colorado +123 500 POD )
Phoenix - Over 5.5 500

Winnipeg - 7:30 PM ET Winnipeg +156 500
Ottawa - Over 5.5 500

Boston - 7:30 PM ET Florida +161 500
Florida - Under 5.5 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +197 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Dallas - 7:30 PM ET Dallas +174 500
St. Louis - Over 5 500