Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 01-15-2012, 10:42 PM

Championship Angles

January 15, 2012

WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS

It’s Championship Week in the NFL and with it two teams are one win away from playing in Super Bowl XLV in Indianapolis on Feb. 5. Like most football fans nationwide, everyone has an opinion on the teams that figure to advance. Our database does, too. There are generally three schools of thought when it comes to handicapping the final four teams on this week’s card. You can look at them fundamentally, statistically, or you can analyze them technically.

While having varying opinions on which of the four teams will advance, and why, handicappers alike often times speak in foreign tongues. With reasons ranging from players and coaches to fundamentals to situations, the views are many.

But since our database speaks a language of its own, we are limited to asking questions and reading answers germane to our query. Here are answers to five Q&A queries we posed to the database and the answers we found surrounding NFL Championship games.

All results are ATS (Against the Spread) and since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Q – How have home teams fared in this game?

A – NFC hosts are 22-9 straight up and 18-13 ATS, while AFC home teams are 20-11 SU and 17-14 ATS.

Q –Who is the better money winner, favorites or dogs?

A – Favorites have owned the edge, going 42-19 SU and 35-26 ATS, including 33-17 SU and 32-18 ATS when laying less than 10 points.

Q – How do teams that own the better record perform?

A – As the majority of time these are almost always the home team, the record for teams with a better win percentage are solid, going 40-17 SU and 33-24 ATS. When installed as dogs or favorites of less than 10 points these better record teams are 30-16 ATS.

Q –How has the Over/Under fared in these games?

A – Surprisingly, these games have had a tendency to fly over the total in this round, going 27-16-1 ‘Over’ in games since 1990. More specific, games in which the posted totals have been at the opposite end of the ladder (more than 46 points or less than 41) have gone ‘Over’ in title games to a greater degree. That’s confirmed by the fact that those games with a total of more than 46 points have played ‘Over’ the number in eight of 10 occurrences, while totals of less than 41 have gone 12-4-1 to the ‘Over’ as well.

Q –What wins in conference title games, offense or defense?

A – When it comes to advancing to the Super Bowl one fact is critical: size matters when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard in divisional round playoff games. Teams who score 14 or fewer points in championship games are soon to be extinct as they are 4-36 SU and 5-35 ATS since 1980. On the flip side, those teams who score 28 or more points in conference title games are 32-5 SU and 31-6 ATS over the same span. FYI: home teams that manage put up 28 or more points in this round are an eye-opening 23-0 SU and 21-2 ATS.

There you have it. The database has spoken. Somewhere between its language and yours is a winner or two on this week’s card. Enjoy the games…

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 11:14 AM

NFL opening line report: Early action shifting odds

NFC Championship Game, New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers, 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday

Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opening line: Pick, 44.5; Moved to 49ers -1.5

The Sports Club recommended line: 49ers -1, 45

Betonline.com line opening line: 49ers -1, 44.5; Moved to 49ers -2.5

MGM Mirage opening line: 49ers -2.5, 44.5

BetCris.com line as of late Sunday: 49ers -3 (even), 43.5

The 49ers money that poured in after books hung San Fran -1 or pick-‘em in the NFC Championship Game might be misleading sharp action, one industry leader told ***********.

“We think most of the money is going to come in on the Giants and these are false moves,” said Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook. “I think they’re just trying to drive the line up.”

Kornegay also expects the public to back the Giants in a big way.

“They haven’t been on San Fran all year,” he said. “I can’t see ‘em being on San Fran here against this Giants team. I’m pretty confident it will be close to a pick by kickoff, or the Giants might even be favored by kickoff.”

Nevertheless, the Hilton and other books were forced to react to the early money. The Hilton moved from pick to Niners -1.5. Offshores, which opened anywhere from Giants -1 to Niners -1, generally moved to Niners -2.5.

BetCris was offering Niners -3 (even) late Sunday night.

Expect this line to be all over the place this week.

In Week 10, the Niners beat the Giants 27-20, covering as 4-point favorites. The score went over the 42.5 total.

The game wasn’t decided until the final minute, when the Niners batted down Eli Manning’s fourth-down pass inside their 10-yard line.

Super Bowl futures update

The Giants have won and covered four straight, outscoring their opponents 121-50. If they go on to win it all, it will be the worst of the four possible outcomes for books’ Super Bowl futures.

A few bettors hold 80-to-1 Giants tickets; more have the Giants in the 60-to-1 to 30-to-1 range.

But, as usual, Super Bowl futures cashed for the books. They wrote boatloads of worthless tickets on the Packers, Saints, Steelers and more.

“We were taking big bets on everybody except the Jaguars, basically,” Kornegay said. “We don’t have any VCUs out there, that’s for sure.”

MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback said only the Lions could have caused a loss on Super Bowl futures.

“The Giants would be our smallest winner, then the 49ers,” he said.

AFC Championship Game, Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots, 3 p.m. ET Sunday

MGM Mirage opening line: Patriots -7.5, 49.5

Wynn Las Vegas opening line: Patriots -7, 49.5; Moved to -7 (-120)

The Sports Club recommended line: Patriots -7 (-120), 52

Betonline.com line as of late Sunday: Patriots -7.5, 50

Cantor Gaming opening line: Patriots -7.5, 49.5

Pinnacle line as of late Sunday: Patriots -9, 50

MGM Mirage’s opening line of 7.5 for Ravens-Patriots looked solid Sunday night, as if it might hold all week. Sharps didn’t pounce either way.

“Apparently it’s a good line because nobody’s jumped on it,” Stoneback said. “It hasn’t moved. Hopefully next Sunday we can still say it was a good line.”

But that line wasn’t unanimous. Pinnacle was offering -9 late Sunday.

Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook manager John Avello opened at -7 and moved to -7 (-120) after taking Patriots money.

“Call it three-and a half for homefield and they’re probably three-and-a-half points better than Baltimore, so that’s my number,” Avello told ***********, adding he hopes he doesn’t have to move to 7.5.

Stoneback said the line has to be more than a touchdown given how impressive the Pats looked Saturday, when they blasted Denver 45-10.

“They seem to be clicking at the right time,” he said. “They made a good Denver defense look bad.”

Most books are using a total of 49.5 -- by far the highest for a Baltimore game all season. The Ravens own the league’s No. 3 defense (16.6 points).

“It’s the combination of New England’s offense and its defense,” Stoneback said, meaning the Pats can give up points as fast as they score them.

New England beat Baltimore 23-20 in Week 6 at home last season, but when they met in the playoffs after the 2009 season, the Ravens rolled 33-14 in Foxborough.

Baltimore rushed for 234 yards and four touchdowns, and intercepted Tom Brady three times in that upset. The Ravens were getting 3.5 points.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 06:21 PM

The long-last vindication of Alex Smith

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - It's taken just one year for Jim Harbaugh to undo nearly a decade's worth of missteps and restore the San Francisco 49ers back to prominence.

But for the quarterback who helped steer the previously-fallen franchise to its first NFC Championship Game appearance since the 1997 season, the road to validation has been anything but a short and smooth trip.

Alex Smith hadn't envisioned the wait to experiencing one of the pinnacle moments of the life of an NFL player -- relishing in the ecstasy of playoff victory -- would take nearly seven full years, nor could have anybody connected with the 49ers back when the organization made the former University of Utah standout a controversial first overall selection of the 2005 draft.

It would be the last time in quite some time that both Smith and the Niners were associated with being at the top. A chaotic combination of injuries, coaching instability and a damaged psyche had turned the mild-mannered triggerman from promising prospect to colossal bust, and the gradual rise to stardom of Aaron Rodgers -- taken 23 spots behind Smith in that same draft and a local favorite from his exploits at nearby Cal-Berkeley -- further reinforced the prevailing sentiment that then-personnel director Scot McCloughan had made one of the egregious errors in judgement in recent memory.

Alex Smith delivered by far his bestseason in helping the 49ers becomethis year's overnight sensation.
McCloughan wouldn't be around for San Francisco's meteoric turnaround under the boundlessly-spirited Harbaugh, having been removed from his post in the 49ers' latest administrational overhaul following the 2009 season, but he too received a measure of redemption when Smith and tight end Vernon Davis -- the first pick of McCloughan's second draft class of 2006 -- teamed up to create one of the most dramatic events for a franchise renowned for producing periods of postseason poignancy.

The 14-yard connection that capped San Francisco's heart-stopping 36-32 win over the more publicly-acknowledged New Orleans Saints in Sunday's NFC Divisional Playoffs should also serve as the play that shatters the dreaded stigma that Smith has been forced to bear all throughout his star-crossed tenure as a professional.

Clearly galvanized by Harbaugh's positive energy -- a complete contrast to the confidence-sapping methods of maniacal predecessor Mike Singletary -- and the stress-relieving scenario of having the starter's role all to himself, Smith delivered by far his best season in helping the 49ers become this year's overnight sensation. The cerebral 27-year-old eclipsed the 3,000-yard passing mark for the first time in his career, while his 1.1 percent interception rate was the best in the NFL and third-lowest in league history.

Yet despite those overall solid numbers, Smith still ranked at best a distant third to his team's ultra-opportunistic defense and Harbaugh's culture-changing leadership in the credit department when assessing San Francisco's sudden shift from 6-10 also-ran in Singletary's swan song to a 14-win powerhouse that's now one game away from an unforeseen Super Bowl trip. His once-soiled reputation may have been substantially repaired, but Smith continued to carry a label that no quarterback wants to wear -- that of a game manager.

But when a defense that had been so good at warding off the Herculean challenge of the ever-explosive Saints for most of the afternoon finally broke in the game's furious final minutes, the 49ers needed Smith to be more than a mere caretaker.

And the young man who had endured seven years of nearly every imaginable hardship, everything from a revolving door of play-callers (the Niners are on their seventh offensive coordinator since drafting Smith), a career-threatening shoulder injury and several justified benching, was more than ready for the task.

Smith came through with a pair of throws that fell into the category of world- lass on the thrilling game-deciding drive, dropping in a perfect deep strike to Davis for a 47-yard gain before skillfully threading the needle to his beastly tight end for the go-ahead score with a mere nine seconds to spare on the game clock. He also had a nifty 28-yard touchdown run with just over two minutes left that briefly put San Francisco in front before New Orleans quickly responded.

"Might be time to give Alex a little credit, huh?," Harbaugh quipped in his postgame press conference.

Davis, another who's been through the lean years, also raised his game to the next level to assist in the 49ers' first playoff win since 2002. The determined sixth-year pro racked up an astounding 180 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches to break Hall of Famer Kellen Winslow's 30-year-old postseason record for receiving yards by a tight end.

"I'm so glad for [Smith] and Vernon, the guys who've been here a long time," said Niners special-teams ace Blake Costanzo. "It's a tribute to their success."

DIVISIONAL ROUND QUICK HITS

With the exception of New England's obliteration of the grossly-overmatched Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos, turnovers were the principal theme of this past weekend's matchups. The 49ers' trademark of forcing and capitalizing on mistakes continued in Saturday's rousing victory over New Orleans, in which the NFC West champs took advantage of five Saints giveaways, while both the Giants and Ravens induced four takeaways to land spots in their respective conference title games with wins on Sunday.

Top-seeded Green Bay's stunning 37-20 loss to resurgent New York -- an outcome that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated -- offered the latest example of a team ramping down the intensity at the end of the regular season once its playoff positioning was secured and paying the price. After not committing more than two turnovers in any game while building their sensational 15-1 record, the Packers had four against the Giants. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers also didn't seem as sharp in the MVP candidate's first outing since Christmas, and poor tackling by his team's problematic defense also played a big part in Green Bay extending the strange streak of defending Super Bowl champions not winning in the playoffs the following season to six consecutive years.

Hands-down winner of the Divisional Round's Bonehead of the Week award goes to Houston wide receiver Jacoby Jones for his inexplicable decision to field a Baltimore punt near his own goal line. His subsequent first-quarter fumble set up an easy Ravens' touchdown that proved to be critical to the Texans' 20-13 defeat, and three interceptions from rookie quarterback T.J. Yates were fatal blows as well to a Houston squad that dominated Baltimore across both lines of scrimmage for the majority of the day.

Sure seemed like the time off helped the Patriots overcome their late-season issues of starting slow. New England put up a pair of touchdowns in the opening nine minutes of its emphatic 45-10 trouncing of the Broncos, and five of Tom Brady's playoff record-tying six scoring passes came prior to intermission as the Pats roared out to a overwhelming 35-7 advantage. And even though the pass- deficient Broncos weren't really a true test, New England's maligned defense did look as good as it has all season.

Finally, a little food for thought for the wagering population. Six of the eight games held over the past two weeks have gone over the expected total, and this year's playoffs nearly became the first since the 1970 merger in which the home team prevailed all throughout the initial two rounds. The Giants have been the lone entry to win on the road so far in this tournament.

THE FINAL FOUR AT A GLANCE

Baltimore at New England (Sunday, 3:00): Patriots have won six of their seven lifetime meetings with Baltimore, but the Ravens' lone triumph in the series occurred in a 2009 AFC First-Round Playoff clash at Gillette Stadium in which Baltimore rushed for a whopping 234 yards and intercepted Brady three times en route to a 33-14 verdict. New England's last three victories over the Ravens have all been by six or less points.

N.Y. Giants at San Francisco (Sunday, 6:30): These teams played one another to the wire at Candlestick Park back on Nov. 13, with the 49ers holding on for a 27-20 decision after coming up with a fourth-down stop at their own 10-yard line with under a minute left. History will be on San Francisco's side in this one, as the home team has won six of the seven all-time postseason bouts between the two and the NFC has sent a different representative to the Super Bowl in each of the last 10 seasons (the Giants went in 2007, while the Niners haven't been there since 1994).

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 06:25 PM

Brady, Patriots Host Ravens For AFC Crown

The Baltimore Ravens aren’t getting much respect from the oddsmakers for Sunday’s AFC title game at the New England Patriots.

Don Best has the just-released NFL conference championship odds and New England is a solid 7½-point favorite with a total of 50½. CBS will broadcast at 3:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.

The NFC title game at 6:30 p.m. (ET) has the New York Giants as 2½-3 point ‘dogs at San Francisco. The Super Bowl future odds are also out with New England (+130) ahead of the 49ers (+225), Giants (+240) and Ravens (+480).

The Ravens (13-4 straight up, 8-8-1 against the spread) advanced Sunday with a 20-13 home win over Houston. They not only failed to cover as 7½-point favorites, but were outgained 315-227 in total yards, getting helped immensely by four Texans turnovers. Three of those were picks off rookie quarterback T.J. Yates.

Baltimore was fortunate to win with just 11 first downs and now faces a quarterback at the other end of the spectrum in Tom Brady. The road also hasn’t been kind to John Harbaugh’s team at 4-4 SU and ATS this year. All four of those losses were as favorites.

New England (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS) had a much easier time this past weekend, a 45-10 home win over Denver as 13½-point favorites. The Pats were more than ready for Tim Tebow and the unorthodox Broncos offense, and Brady tied a playoff record with six passing TDs (363 yards overall).

The ‘over’ is now 7-0 in New England’s last seven games, the Patriots scoring an amazing 37.9 PPG.

The Patriots badly need that performance after losing to Baltimore (33-14) and the New York Jets (28-21) in their last two playoff games, both at home. Brady had four total picks in those contests and some were questioning whether he’s still a clutch playoff performer at age 34.

New England went mostly no-huddle against Denver and will almost definitely do so again this week. That will help tire out a Ravens defense that has two aging superstars in linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed.

Reed is listed as questionable after hurting his ankle late against Houston, but he’s a warrior and should play.

Coach Bill Belichick’s offense is predicated on creating mismatches and the tight end combo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez gives every team fits. Hernandez even lined up as a running back last game and led the team with 61 yards on five carries. He got his bell rung in the fourth quarter running the ball with a big lead (a rare dumb move by Belichick), but is not on the injury report.

Brady will look to exploit the Ravens’ linebackers in coverage as well as strong safety Bernard Pollard. Pollard is the guy who caused Brady’s season-ending knee injury in 2008 while with Kansas City, so there is extra motivation there.

Baltimore’s offense needs to play a lot better this week to have a chance. Ray Rice (1,364 regular season rushing yards) was stuffed by Houston for 60 yards on 21 carries. The Patriots did a nice job against Denver (144 yards on 40 carries), but were run against some in the regular season (117.1 YPG, ranked 17th).

Quarterback Joe Flacco didn’t have a turnover last game, but had just 176 passing yards and is averaging 146 YPG over the last three weeks. Anquan Boldin (887 yards) was the regular season leading receiver, followed by rookie Torrey Smith (841) and Rice (704). Smith is the main deep threat, but has just 80 total yards and no TDs his last three games.

Offenses feel a lot of pressure playing New England, needing to match points. The Ravens must stay balanced and not have Flacco throw it 35 times. The Patriots were second-worst in the league in passing yards allowed (294 YPG) during the regular season, but having safety Patrick Chung healthy has made a difference and their best play could be ahead of them.

The Ravens’ have two main missions on Sunday, pressure Brady and create turnovers. They ranked tied for third in the regular season in sacks (48), with Terrell Suggs at 14, although they were shut out against Houston. Reed (one pick last week) is very dangerous at free safety and Brady may hold the ball a second or two longer to account for where he is.

The only other meeting since the January 2010 playoff game came that following October. New England won 23-20 at home in OT after trailing 20-10 in the fourth quarter. Brady had two picks and was sacked three times for 25 yards.

Early weather predictions have temps in the low 40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Wind could go up to 10 mph. Brady will be able to throw in those conditions, so it will be up to Baltimore to stop him.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 06:28 PM

NY Giants, SF 49ers Meet In NFC Championship

It's been about 4½ months since the NFL kicked off the 2011 season in Green Bay where the Packers hosted the New Orleans Saints. As the season progressed, it appeared those same two teams would close out the NFC portion of the playoffs with a rematch in the conference championship.

A rematch is on for Sunday's NFC Championship, but an upset and a thriller this past weekend made sure it won't be the Saints and Packers. Instead of a battle between those offensive juggernauts on the potentially frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, a meeting between more defensive-minded clubs is in store on what is forecast to be soggy turf at Candlestick Park.

The San Francisco 49ers (14-3 straight up, 12-4-1 against the spread) provided the thriller with Saturday's 36-32 victory over the Saints. Not to be outdone, the New York Giants (11-7 SU, 10-7-1 ATS) pulled off the upset on Sunday, a 37-20 triumph against the defending NFL champion Packers. Champions of the NFC's West and East Divisions respectively, the Niners and G-Men will meet in San Francisco on Sunday evening (6:30 p.m. ET) with FOX providing the broadcast. The contest is the second between the clubs this campaign following a 27-20 win for the 49ers in Week 10 on this very same field, but before we look at that game in more detail, a quick review of the just completed division round of the playoffs is in order.

Technically, both games this past weekend qualified as upsets, though you might be hard-pressed to find a majority of fans who would agree that San Francisco's win at home meets the criteria of a surprise despite getting three points from NFL oddsmakers. Those who saw the game are too busy talking about the exciting conclusion to the 49ers-Saints contest to be thinking much about the pointspread.

It is understandable why the ending is a huge topic of conversation around the water cooler this morning. The Saints and 49ers combined for 34 points in the fourth quarter, exactly half of final scoreboard tally of 68 that went well 'over' the closing 46-point total. Field goals, long pass plays and a quarterback sweep for 28 yards by San Fran's Alex Smith were all part of the back-&-forth nature during the final 15 minutes.

Lost in the closing stages of the game was a 10-point swing between the two clubs in the first quarter. New Orleans opened things with a long drive that ended inside the 49ers five when Pierre Thomas was blasted by Donte Whitner that forced the first of three Saints fumbles on the afternoon. That not only cost the Saints at least three points, it was also the last we saw of Thomas who never returned to the game.

About eight minutes later, Drew Brees threw the first of two first-half interceptions with Dashon Goldson returning the pick inside the New Orleans five. Three plays later, Alex Smith connected with Michael Crabtree to put the Niners up 14-zip.

New York's triumph made the grade as an upset in every sense of the word. The Giants scored the outright win as 8½-point underdogs, did so on the road, and took out the Super Bowl champs who just a few short weeks ago looked to be on their way to a perfect season. Not bad for a Giants team that was given up for dead around Thanksgiving.

Just as the Saints' five turnovers played a huge role in their loss to San Francisco, Green Bay's four giveaways proved fatal in the defeat at the hands of the Giants. New York's defense took Aaron Rodgers and the Packers out of their game, sacking the Green Bay quarterback four times, picking him off once and forcing 20 incomplete throws – many of them drops by his receivers – after Rodgers had been accurate on over 68 percent of his passes for the season.

Meanwhile, Eli Manning and Hakeem Nicks were enjoying a huge day for the Giants. Manning completed 21-of-33 tosses for three touchdowns and 330 yards, exactly half of those yards to Nicks who hauled in seven passes for 165 yards and a pair of scores.

Oddsmakers have pegged San Francisco as 2½-point favorites for Sunday's NFC Championship, with the total sitting at 43-43½ depending where you shop. Those numbers are very close to the lines in the Nov. 13 meeting between the two at Candlestick where San Fran closed as 4-point chalk with 43 for the scoreboard tally.

That clash shared a few similarities to the 49ers-Saints contest from Saturday, starting with most of the scoring coming late in the game as all four touchdowns went on the board in the final 17:25. The game also turned in San Francisco's favor thanks to a Giants turnover, and it ended with the 49ers keeping New York off the scoreboard after the G-Men reached the red zone.

Sunday will mark the 13th time the 49ers have appeared in the NFC Championship, and first since losing at home to the Packers in Jan. 1998. San Francisco is 5-7 in the previous 12 appearances. The Giants are in their fifth conference title game and have won all four of their previous tries, most recently in Jan. 2008 when they topped the Packers in overtime at Lambeau Field, 23-20.

The teams last met in the playoffs during the wild-card round of the 2002 postseason when the 49ers overcame a 24-point deficit to beat the Giants in a wild 39-38 affair.

The weatherman is currently calling for a 70 percent chance of rain in San Francisco on Sunday when the thermometer should be in the low-50s for kickoff.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 06:31 PM

NFC Championship Preview: Giants at 49ers

NEW YORK GIANTS (11-7)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (14-3)

NFC Championship
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -3, Total: 43

The Giants try to continue their improbable run when they visit San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

On Christmas Eve morning, New York was 7-7, having just lost five of six games. But the Giants then ran off four straight victories, including a stunning 37-20 win at 15-1 Green Bay on Sunday. But the task doesn’t get much easier as the 14-3 Niners, who beat the Giants on Nov. 13, await. In that Week 10 matchup, the teams played a back-and-forth affair, with San Francisco scoring two early fourth-quarter touchdowns en route to a 27-20 win. The Giants outgained the 49ers in that game, 395-305. New York QB Eli Manning has won five straight non-home playoff games (SU and ATS), but San Francisco has won seven straight home games (SU and ATS), holding five of those opponents to 10 points or less. Will the Giants continue another magical run to the Super Bowl, or will the defense-first 49ers take care of business at home? The ******* Pro Football Pass gets you all the insight you need for Sunday's games and, of course, the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.

Both teams played in games that went Over the total last Saturday and this rare five-star FoxSheets trend also backs the OVER for the NFC Championship.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (N.Y. GIANTS) - after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (31-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 5*).

The Giants have benefitted from huge plays during their four-game win streak, with touchdown passes of 99 yards and 74 yards to Victor Cruz, as well as Hakeem Nicks scores of 72 yards, 66 yards and a 37-yard, first-half-ending Hail Mary in Green Bay. In two playoff games, Nicks has 13 receptions for 280 yards and 4 TD, and he also had a 32-yard TD catch in San Francisco in Week 10. Manning had a strong performance against the Niners that day, completing 26-of-40 passes for 311 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT. In his past seven postseason games, Manning has a 6-1 record with 12 TD and just 4 INT. San Francisco ranked 16th in passing defense during the regular season (231 YPG) and allowed the Saints to net 435 yards through the air on Saturday. This certainly bodes well for New York’s pass-happy attack.

The Giants will not likely be running the ball very much on Sunday. They ranked last in the NFL with 89 rushing YPG during the regular season, including being held to 93 yards on 29 carries (3.2 YPC) in San Francisco Week 10. Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t play that game, but he’s been pretty strong this postseason with 126 yards on 26 carries (4.8 YPC), while adding 43 more yards on eight catches. He’ll need to have an extraordinary game though to chew up yards on a 49ers run defense that has allowed just 75 YPG on 3.5 YPC this season.

San Francisco QB Alex Smith is coming off a tremendous performance against the Saints, completing 24-of-42 passes for 299 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He also ran for a 28-yard score with 2:11 left to put his team in front. TE Vernon Davis caught two of those touchdowns as part of his monster seven-catch, 180-yard performance, capped off by a game-winning TD catch with nine seconds left in regulation. Davis also caught a 31-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter of the Week 10 matchup that gave San Francisco the lead for good. The duo should have another big afternoon considering New York allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season (255 YPG).

But the key to this game could come down to San Francisco controlling the clock with its running game, powered by Frank Gore. The Niners ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing yards (128 YPG), while the Giants allowed 121 rushing YPG (19th in league). Gore was solid against the Saints, rumbling for 89 yards on just 13 carries (6.8 YPC). But he was held in check against New York in Week 10, gaining zero yards on six carries. Backup RB Kendall Hunter rushed for 40 yards on six carries against New York in the November meeting including a 17-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. The rookie Hunter has piled up 172 yards on 34 carries (5.1 YPC) in the past three weeks.

Both teams took advantage of turnovers last week, with San Francisco going +4 against New Orleans, and the Giants sporting a +3 ratio in Green Bay. But the Giants will be hard-pressed to force the Niners into mistakes, as they are coming off a record-setting-low of 10 offensive turnovers for the entire regular season. New York has also done a great job of protecting the football lately with just two total turnovers during its four-game winning streak.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 06:33 PM

AFC Championship Preview: Ravens at Patriots

BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-4)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-3)

AFC Championship
Kickoff: Sunday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -7.5, Total: 50.5

The Ravens try to win a playoff game in Foxboro for the second time in three years when they face the Patriots for the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon.

New England is 6-1 SU (2-4-1 ATS) in seven meetings with the Ravens since they relocated to Baltimore in 1996. But the one loss came in January 2010 when the Ravens destroyed the Pats 33-14 in the first round of the playoffs. Ray Rice scored on an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage and the defense forced four Tom Brady turnovers (3 INT, 1 fumble) in the blowout. They played again last season, with the Patriots winning 23-20 in overtime despite two Brady interceptions. But New England was clearly the better team last weekend, pummeling Denver 45-10 behind Brady’s 6 TD passes, while the Ravens needed four Houston turnovers to edge the Texans 20-13. Can the Patriots get back to the Super Bowl and cover the big spread, or will Baltimore shock them again on their home turf in the postseason? The ******* Pro Football Pass gets you all the insight you need for Sunday's games and, of course, the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.

The Patriots have played seven straight games Over the Total and this pair of four-star FoxSheets trends also backs the OVER for Sunday’s game.

Play Over - Home teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season. (29-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.9%, +24.6 units. Rating = 4*).

NEW ENGLAND is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 36.2, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 4*).

The Ravens are 9-0 at home this year, but are just 4-4 (SU and ATS) on the road. Baltimore’s offense sputtered Sunday versus Houston, gaining just 227 total yards (3.6 yards per play). Rice was held to a mere 60 yards on 21 carries, failing to gain 10 yards on any of his rushing attempts. But he has loved playing New England in his career, piling up 350 rushing yards (5.7 YPC) and 2 TD, while adding 87 yards on 13 catches in three lifetime meetings. Second-string RB Ricky Williams rushed for 27 yards on six carries against the Texans and also has a long history of running over Patriots defenders with 917 yards (3.9 YPC) and 7 TD in 13 career games versus New England. The Pats run defense has been decent this year (118 YPG), but has allowed a hefty 4.5 yards per carry.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco has won playoff games in each of the past four seasons, but he hasn’t always been great, completing just 53% of his passes for 5.81 YPA, 6 TD and 7 INT. In the big playoff win at New England two years ago, Flacco attempted just 10 passes all game, going 4-of-10 for 34 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. Last week against Houston he made some nice throws, but he finished 14-of-27 (52%) for 176 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT, and took five sacks. His favorite target was WR Anquan Boldin who caught four balls for 73 yards and scored his first touchdown since Nov. 20. The Patriots defense allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this year (294 YPG), but only gave up 108 passing yards on 9-of-26 completions to Broncos QB Tim Tebow on Saturday.

Brady has a 15-5 record in his playoff career, throwing for 239 passing YPG (6.66 YPA), 36 TD and 17 INT. He was incredible in Saturday night’s win, completing 77% of his passes (26-of-34) for 363 yards, 6 TD and 1 INT. Three of those TD tosses were to TE Rob Gronkowski who now has a ridiculous 20 touchdowns in 17 games this year. Gronkowski caught 10 passes against Denver for 145 yards. WR Deion Branch (3 rec, 85 yds), WR Wes Welker (6 rec, 55 yds) and TE Aaron Hernandez (4 rec, 55 yds) each had one touchdown reception against the Broncos. Branch was the most targeted receiver in last year’s OT win over Baltimore, catching nine of his 12 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown. But the Ravens were fourth in passing defense during the regular season (196 YPG) and allowed a league-low 58.8 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks.

Despite the excellent pass defense, the Ravens have struggled trying to stop the run lately, allowing 125 rushing YPG (4.4 YPC) in the past four games, considerably more than the 86 rushing YPG (3.3 YPC) they surrendered in the first 13 games this year. New England has also done a better job rushing the football in the past four games, totaling 544 yards (136 YPG). Hernandez led the team Saturday with 61 yards on just five carries. RB Danny Woodhead added 25 yards on just four attempts, and also led the Patriots with 63 yards (5.7 YPC) in last year’s OT loss to Baltimore.

It’s no secret the Ravens won Sunday because of going +4 in the turnover battle (and committing zero penalties), but that’s not likely to happen against New England. In the past nine games, the Patriots have turned the ball over just five times. And if Baltimore fails to sack Tom Brady like it failed to sack Houston quarterback T.J. Yates, it could be a long afternoon for the Ravens defenders.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-16-2012, 06:37 PM

Texans, Giants cash for Books

January 16, 2012

The entire landscape of the NFL postseason changed when the Packers lost at home to the Giants, 37-20. Green Bay was supposed to be the ‘it’ team after going 15-1 during the regular season, but the combination of maybe be too much rest and a relentless Giants attack on both sides of the ball sent the NFC’s No. 1 seed packing in the Divisional Playoff round for the fourth time in five years.
The LVH Super Book readjusted their Super Bowl line drastically due to the Packers no longer being a player in the game. Prior to Sunday, the NFC was a 3 ½--point favorite in the Super Bowl line they have had posted all season. On Monday morning the AFC was posted as a 4 ½ -point favorite and the total had dropped from 54 to 50.

The Packers and Patriots had been 9/5 co-favorites (Bet $50 to win $90) to win the Super Bowl following New England’s 45-10 win over Denver, but with Green Bay out of the mix, the Patriots are now the 10/11 (Bet $110 to win $100) favorites.

The Super Bowl everyone is hoping for is the Patriots-Giants in a rematch from the 2007 season where the Giants did the unthinkable by knocking off an undefeated Patriots squad, a team that steam rolled through the entire season like no one had ever seen before.

“There’s no doubt about it, the public wants the Patriots and Giants to meet again and it would be our best scenario as far as handle goes,’ said Caesars Palace’s Todd Fuhrman.

Of the four remaining teams, there is no matchup that would create the type of buzz New York and New England would. You’ve got the Patriots on a nine-game winning streak going against a Giants team that looks very similar to the Giants Wild Card team from 2007. This season’s version of the Giants and 2007’s both had to win at Green Bay to advance.

The Ravens and the 49ers are almost an afterthought at this juncture to everyone other than their fans, but it’s definitely a Super Bowl Las Vegas doesn’t want.

“Our worst case scenario is definitely the Ravens meetings the 49ers,” said Fuhrman. “It’s a nice story with the brothers meeting against each other in the Super Bowl, but it wouldn’t translate well through the betting windows like any other possible match-up.”

The public loves the possibility of a high-scoring game and the total helps set the stage. The Giants and Patriots would be listed at 51 or 52 while the Ravens and 49ers would be set around 40 or 41.

The least popular team in the entire equation is the Ravens. Their brand of football has been successful, but let’s face it, they’re not a fun team to watch. Joe Flacco is the weakest of the four remaining quarterbacks, including Alex Smith, and great defensive teams don’t get the type of respect these days like they used to.

While the 49ers have a defense equal of better than the Ravens, they won over America with their 36-32 victory against the Saints last Saturday. Late in the game, they answered scores by the Saints in thrilling fashion and Smith showed the world that he was the original Tim Tebow under head coach Urban Meyer at Utah.

The Ravens have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl at 6/1. The 49ers and Giants are each at 7/2.

The Patriots opened as 7-point home favorites against the Ravens and was quickly bet to -7 ½. The two teams met last season in New England with the Patriots winning 23-20 giving them a 6-0 record against Baltimore in the regular season. However, in their only playoff meeting, following the 2009 season, the Ravens won 33-13 at New England in the Divisional Playoff round.

The LVH Super Book opened the 49ers at pick-em, but was quickly bet up the ladder to -2 ½. They also had their total bet down from 44 to 42 ½.

The 49ers beat the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at San Francisco as 3 ½-point favorites. That loss was a week after the Giants’ big win over the Patriots, but started a succession of four straight losses that put their playoff hopes in serious jeopardy. Since getting off that skid, the G-men have reeled off five wins in six games, all coming in playoff-type fashion with a win or go home mentality.

Sports Books Have Good Weekend

The Divisional Playoff round went well for Las Vegas sports books with the key game being the Texans covering at Baltimore as 7 ½-point road underdogs. The Ravens were the common link to almost everyone’s parlay for the weekend.

The Saints (-4) were a popular choice against the 49ers to kick off the weekend and fell 36-32 in one of the most exciting playoff games in recent history. The Patriots went from -13 ½ to -14 by game day, making it not seem like a good decision for the house, but after all the money-line wagers on the Broncos (+600) were tallied, it ended up being a good decision closing out Saturday’s ledger.

Had the Ravens scored on their fourth-and-inches play at the goal line late in the game, the entire city would have been cashing, but the game stayed 20-13 and gave the books a big win. Sharp money pushed the total from 38 ½ down to 35 ½ early in the week, but the majority of public money was on the OVER.

Had the Packers-Giants (+8) game stayed under the total of 52, the books would have raked in almost all of the chips, but a late touchdown by the Giants made the score 37-20. Despite losing on all the money-line wagers with New York (+290), the Packers losing on teasers was the biggest difference one the day. Baltimore, Green Bay and New England were a popular teaser combination. In the Baltimore game, all sides hit on the teaser.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-18-2012, 10:21 PM

Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2012

Playoff Recap

The ‘over’ has posted a 6-2 mark through the first eight playoff games and it could easily be 7-1 if the Houston-Baltimore matchup didn’t come to a screeching halt in the second-half. After seeing 30 points posted in the first 30 minutes, the pair combined for three points in the final two quarters.

While that outcome was tough to stomach for some ‘over’ bettors, the toughest beat of the weekend occurred in the Giants-Packers battle. With just seconds left in the first-half, New York added a Hail Mary touchdown as time expired to take a 20-10 lead over Green Bay at the break. Most shops had the first-half total at 27 ½ points.

Similar to the game results, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the first-half of this year's postseason, while the ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 record in the second-half. And, that number could be 6-2 to the ‘under’ if the Saints and 49ers didn’t explode for a 34-point fourth quarter, 28 of them coming in the final four minutes. If San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t play hero and stays inbounds instead of scoring (the smart play), you might’ve seen three points instead of 21.

Including the second round results, the ‘under’ stands at 122-119-5 (51%) on the season.

Championship History

Let’s preface this section by saying that past playoff history has meant absolutely nothing this year. The Wild Card and Divisional Playoffs used to trend toward the ‘under’ and we’ve seen nothing but shootouts. Ironically, the Championship round has been geared towards high-scoring affairs. Does that mean we should expect some slugfests this weekend?

Looking at the below tables, you’ll notice that the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 conference title games.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 @ Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 @ Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER
2003-2004 New England 24 vs. Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER
2002-2003 Oakland 41 vs. Tennessee 24 47, OVER
2001-2002 New England 24 @ Pittsburgh 17 37, OVER

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 @ Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 @ Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER
2003-2004 Carolina 14 @ Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER
2002-2003 Tampa Bay 27 @ Philadelphia 10 34, OVER
2001-2002 St. Louis 29 vs. Philadelphia 24 49, OVER

AFC Championship – Baltimore at New England

Line Movement: Depending where you play, this game is hovering between 50 and 51 points, with the majority of betting shops holding steady at 50.5.

Quick Analysis: Assuming both teams can put up 24 points and you grab a number of 50.5, you got yourself a clear-cut ‘over’ winner, right? It’s simple handicapping and let's be honest, it’s real tough to argue against the facts. New England’s offense has put up 30-plus points in 13 of its 17 games, including 45 gainst Denver last week. And before you say Baltimore’s defense is great, let’s delve into those facts too. We understand the Ravens were ranked third in both points (16.6) and yards per game (288), but they haven’t face a dynamic offense or signal caller like Tom Brady all year. The last time Baltimore faced a legit QB, Philip Rivers and the Chargers dropped 34 on the board, rather easily too.

The other side of the total equation is Baltimore, who’s been anything been consistent on offense this season. Last week, bettors watched the Ravens’ attack put up 227 total yards of offense, yet they did score 20 points albeit with two short tracks. Plus the club came up empty with a first-and-goal from the nine-yard line too. The Patriots’ defense is coming off their second-best effort of the season last week when it held Denver to 10 points. Prior to stifling the one-dimensional Broncos, the New England allowed 20 or more points to quarterbacks named Young, Orlovsky, Grossman, Tebow, Moore, Fitzpatrick. Like a lot of other pundits, I’m not sold on Joe Flacco but he’s got weapons and I have to believe he does just as good as the aforementioned QBs.

Trends: Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road, while New England has seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Gillette Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the past four meetings between the pair.

Playoff History: The Patriots have played in five conference title games under the Belichick-Brady regime and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2, but the two ‘under’ tickets did take place in Foxborough. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in eight playoff games and the 'under' has gone 5-3.

NFC Championship – New York Giants at San Francisco

Line Movement: Unlike the first affair set for next Sunday, this ‘over/under’ has received a ton of interest and it’s safe to say that the oddsmakers put out a bad line. The opener came out at 45 and has since dropped to 42, with a few major offshore outfits adding the hook (42.5).

Quick Analysis: The 49ers defeated the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at home and the combined 47 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42, which is the same number as this week’s rematch. The game in mid-November started with five field goals and ended with four touchdowns, three coming in the final quarter. It’s hard to see the Giants (37) and 49ers (36) putting up similar numbers like they did in the Divisional Playoff round, especially with expected precipitation in the Bay Area. Also, defense should play a big factor in the second encounter. Since getting exposed by the Saints (49), Packers (38) and Cowboys (34), the Giants’ defense has allowed an average of 14.6 PPG the last five weeks, which includes the 20 they allowed to the league's best offense in Green Bay last Sunday. San Francisco did allow New Orleans to drop 32 on the scoreboard last Saturday, which was an anomaly. During the regular season, the 49ers defense (13.2 PPG) was impossible to score on at home, with six opponents being held to 17 points or less.

Trends: The Giants saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 on the road, while the 49ers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 at home.

Playoff History: Prior to last week’s ‘over’ ticket, Eli Manning watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 in his first eight postseason games. These teams squared off in the playoffs of the 2002 season and San Francisco rallied past New York for a 39-38 victory.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2012, 11:19 PM

Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Caesars Palace Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman made another trip to the studios at DonBest.com to talk about the latest sports wagering topics.

There is only one major focus this week, of course, as it is Championship weekend in the National Football League.

First up on Sunday will be the AFC Championship game between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Currently on the Don Best odds screen at Caesars, the Pats are favored by a touchdown and the total is 49½.

Something is a little off with that spread, however, and Fuhrman is quick to point that out. The Ravens may have been only about a 4-point underdog in the regular season in this same situation. Factor in Tom Brady’s dismantling of the Denver Broncos last week along with Baltimore’s struggle against the underrated Houston Texans and that all adds up to an inflated number.

New England is also working against a pretty strong postseason trend. Teams that score 40 or more points in the playoffs are 3-19 against the spread the following week. Bettors only have to look to last week to find evidence when the New Orleans Saints fell to the 49ers.

Speaking of San Francisco, they will be playing host to the New York Giants at Candlestick Park for the NFC Championship. Right now the total is 42, down from 45, with the Niners -2½.

While anything can happen in the world of sports and sports betting, do not count on that number moving to San Fran -3. If it does move, count on it swinging in favor of the Giants.

Also for this week’s matchup in the NFC, look for rain to be in the forecast which could cause some sloppy footing.

Plenty of chatter is afloat in Vegas about big futures money on the G-Men to win it all but Fuhrman suggests that Caesars will not be heavily affected with that outcome. That being said, New York is last on their list in terms of which team they’re rooting for.

On the flip side of that list, patrons may catch the Senior Analyst rocking a loud purple jersey.

Finally, it’s never too early to look ahead to the future and Caesars already has odds out for next year’s Super Bowl. The Patriots and Green Bay Packers are co-favorites at 7/1 while both Fuhrman and Kenny White had the same idea for a sleeper choice, the Houston Texans at 10/1.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2012, 11:22 PM

Look for a Super Bowl rematch in Indianapolis

January 18, 2012

Get ready for the rematch. The Super Bowl rematch, not the Harbaugh coaching family reunion.

For a Super Bowl redux to happen, the New York Giants will need another huge road win, this time at San Francisco. And when they get it Sunday, will they face the Baltimore Ravens, who routed them in the 2001 Super Bowl? Or New England, which had its perfect record shattered by the Giants in the big game four years ago?

Read on for that one.

New York Giants (plus 2 1-2) at San Francisco

It's hard to say who had the more impressive victory last weekend. The Giants (11-7) outplayed, outcoached and outworked the defending champion Packers at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay hadn't lost since early last season. The 49ers showed more passing offense than anyone imagined and won a shootout with one of the league's most prolific offenses, the Saints.

New York forced four turnovers, one fewer than San Francisco, a major factor in their games.

``We always talk about the turnover margin and, of course, that was huge,'' Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. ``We were plus-3. And we felt very much so for a team that only had 14 turnovers over the course of the entire season, that was exceptional. They were a team with plus-24 and really had played from the other side of it all year long.''

The 49ers (14-3) have played from the positive side of it all season, too. They were plus-28, with a miniscule 10 giveaways during the regular season.

So whoever protects the ball will move closer to that trip to Indianapolis.

These rivals have a long history of postseason meetings, including New York's 15-13 win in 1990. Most memorable might be San Francisco's wild 39-38 victory nine years ago after which the league apologized to the Giants for a botched officiating call on the last play.

Their most recent matchup was the 49ers' 27-20 win at Candlestick Park on Nov. 13, the first of four straight losses for the Giants. New York turned it around by winning three of its last four regular-season games to take the NFC East and has gotten healthy.

``I think it probably surprised a lot of people that the Giants and the 49ers are in the NFC championship game,'' Niners first-year coach Jim Harbaugh said. ``In October and November and September, we were trying to win the next game. That's where our focus was.''

The Giants nearly pulled out that November game, and they are vastly improved now. With more balance than the 49ers can muster, they will head to Indy.

GIANTS, 24-13

Baltimore (plus 7 1-2) at New England

The AFC title game shapes up as a classic matchup of imposing offense and immovable defense. In the current NFL atmosphere, with all kinds of points and yardage records being set, the offense has had the edge.

That hardly means the Ravens are incapable of going to Foxborough and repeating their playoff victory there in 2010. That game was decided early when Ray Rice burst through a hole the size of Cape Cod and sprinted 83 yards for a touchdown on Baltimore's first offensive play. The Ravens quickly got another TD, making it 14-0 just five minutes in, and New England never got back in it.

Baltimore didn't get to the Super Bowl that year and has not despite making the playoffs in each of John Harbaugh's four seasons as coach. Harbaugh likes the fact that as a wild card the last three years, the Ravens (13-4) are no strangers to road playoff games.

``It helps, just by the fact that we've done it,'' Harbaugh said. ``Most of our team has been there before, and then those young guys can relate to the older guys, and the older guys can share some wisdom. But it's not going to impact necessarily this game, except to the extent that our guys have been there before and it's certainly not going to be anything new for them. And that's a good thing.''

A very good thing is the way Tom Brady played this season for New England (14-3). He comes off a six-touchdown passing performance against Denver, but comparing the Broncos' defense to Baltimore's is ludicrous.

Still, Brady has a versatile cast, led by All-Pros at tight end (Rob Gronkowski) and receiver (Wes Welker), and his offensive line is solid - a key against Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. The Patriots' defensive weakness is against the pass, not an area the Ravens necessarily excel at.

So look for Giants-Patriots II in the Super Bowl.

PATRIOTS, 27-16

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2012, 11:25 PM

Jim, John Harbaugh a win away from Super Bowl

January 18, 2012

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - When addressing his 49ers this week, Jim Harbaugh can point to the monumental miss in his 15-year NFL career: He came a last-gasp pass short of making the Super Bowl. He still has an out-of-whack right pinkie and noticeable hitch in his step to show for his time in the league.

His big brother, John, never played at football's highest level and instead might motivate his Baltimore Ravens with examples of sacrifices by military members in real-life conflicts.

The Harbaughs, separated in age by all of 15 months, took different paths to the doorstep of the Super Bowl. Now, they're sparking talk of a ``Superbaugh.''

Baltimore plays at New England in Sunday's first game for the AFC title, then San Francisco hosts the New York Giants for the NFC crown. Their parents, Jack and Jackie, plan to watch on television from home in Wisconsin.

While the brothers have spoken during the playoffs, Jim is quick to point out they are each handling business their own way.

``Each situation is different,'' he said. ``There are some similarities, there are some differences. Their situation is similar in some ways, and different in others. We're each going to handle it accordingly.''

John Harbaugh began at the lowest rung of coaching and worked his way up slowly, a former college defensive back at Miami of Ohio whose playing career ended there. He has guided the Ravens' staunch, playmaking defense.

Jim Harbaugh was a star college quarterback at Michigan, a first-round draft pick and eventual Pro Bowler who turned to coaching much later. His thick offensive playbook featuring a version of the West Coast offense can be overwhelming, and Harbaugh has been known to mix in some twists, such as using David Akers to throw a pass on a fake field goal or throwing to a nose tackle-turned part-time fullback.

In last Saturday's 36-32 last-second win against Drew Brees and the favored Saints, Harbaugh even used star defensive tackle Justin Smith for a few plays on offense.

He gets a kick out of the game-planning process and throwing in some new wrinkles each week.

``Really enjoyable. Yeah, it's a fun part of the job, and I think the thing that makes it fun is that the players are really stimulated by that,'' Jim Harbaugh said. ``And we've got smart guys that they want it, they almost need it. And really keeps them on a razor's edge.''

Throughout the season, the Harbaughs talk regularly to share ideas, yet suddenly are in scouting mode with the potential for another history-making matchup next month in Indianapolis. On Thanksgiving night, they became the first brothers to face each other as NFL head coaches.

``It's pretty neat. I'm proud of him,'' John Harbaugh said. ``He's proud of what we're doing.''

Jim considers himself a Ravens fan.

``Had a chance to watch his game, and found myself, as always, pulling very hard for him and his team. Very happy for his success,'' Jim said. ``(I watch) as a brother, as a fan of his team, and also as a possible opponent, yes.''

One thing neither likes during game week is anything they consider nonsense - a distraction to the one and only goal of a victory.

The Harbaughs can be dismissive. They're known to sneer or blow off questions altogether when it comes to injuries or any other tidbit that might give an opponent insight or a possible advantage - perceived or otherwise.

Jim Harbaugh had a roster full of playoff first-timers going into last Saturday's win.

His message: ``Don't overcook it.'' Translation: Stick with what got you here.

John Harbaugh has a postseason-tested roster of men who have been in the big games before. Ray Lewis is still around from the 2001 Super Bowl champion team.

Both possess a laser-like football focus and find unique ways to motivate.

``When he gets fired up, it's fire and brimstone,'' Ravens linebacker Jarret Johnson said of John. ``But for the most part, he reads a lot. He draws a lot from the military. We get a lot of poetry. He uses a lot of different analogies and stuff. I would say he's all over the place. He's a rah-rah guy when he needs to be, and he's also very subtle. Maybe a Shakespeare speech, something like that. He draws inspiration from everywhere.''

Jim has his players buying into a blue-collar mentality, and there are actual blue-collar shirts to fit the theme. Defensive line coach Jim Tomsula wears his regularly around team headquarters.

``It's really been fun to see the sayings that have really grabbed on from the blue-collar aspect,'' Akers said. ``A lot of this country is built on the blue-collar idea.''

Jim Harbaugh always has a story to share. From the one about his uncles who untucked their shirts after a long day's work - he now does the same after each victory - to his own missed opportunity at a Super Bowl, one he figured surely would come again.

In the AFC championship game after the 1995 season, the Colts had the ball on the Steelers 29 on third-and-1, but Harbaugh's Hail Mary throw to the end zone went through Aaron Bailey's hands as time expired. Pittsburgh won, 20-16.

``He just tells us to give it all we have, give it all we've got, go out there and just fight, just fight as a team,'' running back Frank Gore said. ``Think about all the bad times we had here and now we have this opportunity and go take advantage of it. That's what we're trying to do.''

If Jim Harbaugh wins Sunday, he'll be headed back to a city where he is still loved despite not coming through that day. His sister, Joani Crean - whose husband coaches at Indiana - still regularly gets stopped by strangers when she travels to Indianapolis with their stories about her brother, Jim.

Both Harbaughs recall their youths to give examples of what they learned from their coaching father, Jack.

During training camp, John Harbaugh talked about sharing one of those tales with his team.

``The guys laughed. They've heard it before, but when you say, `This is something my dad used to tell me,' boom, it disarms them a little bit. They appreciate it,'' he said.

John also took part in an NFL-USO coaches tour of the Persian Gulf in 2009 and occasionally calls on military personnel to address the team after practice. In turn, in 2010 he spoke to the Army's 1st Cavalry and attended its team-building symposium.

``Those guys have so much at stake. It's hard for us to even look at it and say it's the same, but when they teach their troops, they make sports analogies all the time,'' Harbaugh said. ``I think that's ironic, because we make military analogies all the time.''

His brother has his own methods - and the 49ers have been all in since the start. San Francisco has gone from a 6-10 team last season, one that missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season, to a 14-3 team one win from playing for football's biggest prize.

He is rah-rah to the core. At the same time, he has been known to sleep at team headquarters while ``honkering down'' as he calls it. Harbaugh orders pizza to team headquarters as he and his staff spend hours in the film room studying opponents.

Players walk around wearing T-shirts with Harbaugh's catchphrase ``Who's got it better than us? No-body!'' That one came from his father.

``I'll pick up an article or a news story and you see something in there I'll think, `Hah, where have I heard that?''' said Jack Harbaugh, whose credo was born in his tiny hometown of Crestline, Ohio. ``I was talking to my cousin, Mike Gottfried .. and he said: `You know, it's amazing. I can recall that in Crestline back in the early 1950s.' ... Mike says: `You know what? I can recall that.' We'd be walking out to play. Or we'd be going home at night and we'd look at each other say, `Who's got it better than us? Noooo-body!' And that was a great life.''

Life will be much sweeter for the close-knit Harbaughs if each brother holds up his end of the bargain Sunday. Then, it will be reunion time in Indy with the world watching.

----

**StarDust Bum** · 01-19-2012, 11:27 PM

Giants vs. 49ers: matchups

January 19, 2012

Matchups for the NFC championship game Sunday between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park:

When the Giants have the ball

The Giants scored 394 points and were extremely efficient down the stretch to win the NFC East. They've continued that in the playoffs, mixing in big plays with ball security, getting huge contributions from WRs Hakeem Nicks (88), Victor Cruz (80) and Mario Manningham (82), and just enough rushing from Ahmad Bradshaw (44) and Brandon Jacobs (27).

Eli Manning (10) makes it all work, and has been brilliant for much of the season, even as the Giants (11-7) struggled to get into the postseason. Manning's calm demeanor rubs off on his teammates, and he's become particularly adept on third downs and in fourth quarters. He set an NFL regular-season record with 15 touchdown passes in the fourth period. Manning has been the definition of clutch.

He's also gotten more comfortable with his offensive line, led by G Chris Snee (76) and T David Diehl (66). That line was leaky midway through the schedule, but improved when everyone got healthy.

Coach Tom Coughlin prefers to use the ground game, especially the power run, to set up passes. While Bradshaw and Jacobs have been decent and sporadically broke some long gains, the Giants have profited most on Manning's arm. Look for them to attempt doing so again because the 49ers (14-3) have the league's best run defense, led by All-Pros DT Justin Smith (94), LBs NaVorro Bowman (53) and Patrick Willis (52), the most dynamic defender in this game.

Having seen how well New Orleans did with TE Jimmy Graham last week, New York will get Jake Ballard (85) involved, particularly if he can keep one of the linebackers or safeties occupied. That would force the 49ers to have single coverage on one of the Giants' dangerous wideouts, and all three have shown breakaway ability in such situations.

Still, the Niners, who allowed an NFC-low 229 points, have strong coverage backs in CB Carlos Rodgers (22) and S Dashon Goldson (38), each of whom had six interceptions. San Francisco also might be the best tackling team in the NFL, and S Donte Whitner's (31) hit on Pierre Thomas last week displayed that.

Thanks to rookie Aldon Smith (99) and Justin Smith up front and LB Ahmad Brooks (55) in a turnaround season, the 49ers have a dangerous pass rush. Watch for Aldon Smith on edge rushes and some stunts, and for Justin Smith just about anywhere.

When the 49ers have the ball

If the Niners establish the run with Frank Gore (21), who rushed for 1,211 yards and eight TDs, and can spring backup Kendall Hunter (32) a few times, it will make QB Alex Smith (11) more effective. In by far the best season of his seven-year career, Smith has avoided turnovers, made more precise throws than ever and been patient. He also can use his legs, as he showed with that masterful sweep for a 28-yard TD against the Saints.

Playing it smart on offense is San Francisco's style - out of necessity and thanks to the coaching acumen of Jim Harbaugh. The receiving corps, other than TE Vernon Davis (85), is mediocre. Davis is a special talent and was a game-breaker against New Orleans, bringing himself to tears. If he is able to bring New York's secondary to tears, the Niners will be in great shape.

But safeties Antrel Rolle (26) and Kenny Phillips (21) have shown better coverage skills in the last month than at any previous time, and we might even see CB Corey Webster (23) covering Davis at times.

Smith's O-line is as good as Manning's, with T Joe Staley (74) and C Jonathan Goodwin (59) the standouts. They must neutralize the Giants' potentially overpowering pass rush led by All-Pro DE Jason Pierre-Paul (90), DEs Justin Tuck (91) and Osi Umenyiora (72), and revitalized LB Michael Boley (59). If backup TE Delanie Walker (46) can go after breaking his jaw - he says he will play - it will help the passing game immensely.

The Giants stumbled often in pass coverage for much of the season, but came on in recent weeks against the likes of Tony Romo, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. If Alex Smith has to put up the ball 35 or more times, New York could be in good position to make its second Super Bowl in four years.

Special Teams

The 49ers have an All-Pro kicker in David Akers (2) and punter in Andy Lee (4). Need we say more about their kicking game?

Akers set a league mark with 44 field goals, in part because San Francisco bogged down in the red zone too much. He also has kept his range despite being in his 13th season.

The Niners return game isn't spectacular, although the inconsistent Ted Ginn Jr., who is slowed by a right knee problem, did break two returns for scores. Their coverage squads are very strong.

Lawrence Tynes (9) has made almost as many clutch field goals as Akers, and his kickoffs have improved recently. Steve Weatherford (5) has been terrific in the second half of the season as the punter.

Don't look for the Giants to break many long runbacks; they've gotten little production from anyone they've tried at it. More significantly, they didn't give up any TDs on returns.

Coaching

It's been perplexing for months that many Giants fans were eager for a coaching change, especially when the team hit the meat of the schedule and lost four straight. Coughlin stayed the course, never panicked, made sure his players kept their focus and look where he has them now. For the last four weeks, the Giants have been perfectly prepared, resourceful and more energetic than their opponents.

Harbaugh's first pro season as a head coach has been wildly successful. He changed the attitude in a once-divisive locker room, made his players believe in themselves, and provided a steady presence for the likes of Alex Smith, Davis and WR Michael Crabtree (15). He has a difficult chore coaching against a master such as Coughlin, but Harbaugh certainly won't back down.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-22-2012, 01:34 PM

Total Talk - Championships

January 22, 2012

Playoff Recap
The ‘over’ has posted a 6-2 mark through the first eight playoff games and it could easily be 7-1 if the Houston-Baltimore matchup didn’t come to a screeching halt in the second-half. After seeing 30 points posted in the first 30 minutes, the pair combined for three points in the final two quarters.

While that outcome was tough to stomach for some ‘over’ bettors, the toughest beat of the weekend occurred in the Giants-Packers battle. With just seconds left in the first-half, New York added a Hail Mary touchdown as time expired to take a 20-10 lead over Green Bay at the break. Most shops had the first-half total at 27 ½ points.

Similar to the game results, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the first-half of this year's postseason, while the ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 record in the second-half. And, that number could be 6-2 to the ‘under’ if the Saints and 49ers didn’t explode for a 34-point fourth quarter, 28 of them coming in the final four minutes. If San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t play hero and stays inbounds instead of scoring (the smart play), you might’ve seen three points instead of 21.

Including the second round results, the ‘under’ stands at 122-119-5 (51%) on the season.

Championship History

Let’s preface this section by saying that past playoff history has meant absolutely nothing this year. The Wild Card and Divisional Playoffs used to trend toward the ‘under’ and we’ve seen nothing but shootouts. Ironically, the Championship round has been geared towards high-scoring affairs. Does that mean we should expect some slugfests this weekend?

Looking at the below tables, you’ll notice that the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 conference title games.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 @ Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 @ Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER
2003-2004 New England 24 vs. Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER
2002-2003 Oakland 41 vs. Tennessee 24 47, OVER
2001-2002 New England 24 @ Pittsburgh 17 37, OVER

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 @ Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 @ Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER
2003-2004 Carolina 14 @ Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER
2002-2003 Tampa Bay 27 @ Philadelphia 10 34, OVER
2001-2002 St. Louis 29 vs. Philadelphia 24 49, OVER

AFC Championship – Baltimore at New England

Line Movement: Depending where you play, this game is hovering between 50 and 51 points, with the majority of betting shops holding steady at 50.5.

Quick Analysis: Assuming both teams can put up 24 points and you grab a number of 50.5, you got yourself a clear-cut ‘over’ winner, right? It’s simple handicapping and let's be honest, it’s real tough to argue against the facts. New England’s offense has put up 30-plus points in 13 of its 17 games, including 45 gainst Denver last week. And before you say Baltimore’s defense is great, let’s delve into those facts too. We understand the Ravens were ranked third in both points (16.6) and yards per game (288), but they haven’t face a dynamic offense or signal caller like Tom Brady all year. The last time Baltimore faced a legit QB, Philip Rivers and the Chargers dropped 34 on the board, rather easily too.

The other side of the total equation is Baltimore, who’s been anything been consistent on offense this season. Last week, bettors watched the Ravens’ attack put up 227 total yards of offense, yet they did score 20 points albeit with two short tracks. Plus the club came up empty with a first-and-goal from the nine-yard line too. The Patriots’ defense is coming off their second-best effort of the season last week when it held Denver to 10 points. Prior to stifling the one-dimensional Broncos, the New England allowed 20 or more points to quarterbacks named Young, Orlovsky, Grossman, Tebow, Moore, Fitzpatrick. Like a lot of other pundits, I’m not sold on Joe Flacco but he’s got weapons and I have to believe he does just as good as the aforementioned QBs.

Trends: Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road, while New England has seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Gillette Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the past four meetings between the pair.

Playoff History: The Patriots have played in five conference title games under the Belichick-Brady regime and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2, but the two ‘under’ tickets did take place in Foxborough. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in eight playoff games and the 'under' has gone 5-3.

NFC Championship – New York Giants at San Francisco

Line Movement: Unlike the first affair set for next Sunday, this ‘over/under’ has received a ton of interest and it’s safe to say that the oddsmakers put out a bad line. The opener came out at 45 and has since dropped to 42, with a few major offshore outfits adding the hook (42.5).

Quick Analysis: The 49ers defeated the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at home and the combined 47 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42, which is the same number as this week’s rematch. The game in mid-November started with five field goals and ended with four touchdowns, three coming in the final quarter. It’s hard to see the Giants (37) and 49ers (36) putting up similar numbers like they did in the Divisional Playoff round, especially with expected precipitation in the Bay Area. Also, defense should play a big factor in the second encounter. Since getting exposed by the Saints (49), Packers (38) and Cowboys (34), the Giants’ defense has allowed an average of 14.6 PPG the last five weeks, which includes the 20 they allowed to the league's best offense in Green Bay last Sunday. San Francisco did allow New Orleans to drop 32 on the scoreboard last Saturday, which was an anomaly. During the regular season, the 49ers defense (13.2 PPG) was impossible to score on at home, with six opponents being held to 17 points or less.

Trends: The Giants saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 on the road, while the 49ers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 at home.

Playoff History: Prior to last week’s ‘over’ ticket, Eli Manning watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 in his first eight postseason games. These teams squared off in the playoffs of the 2002 season and San Francisco rallied past New York for a 39-38 victory.

Announcement

The Bum's NFL Football AFC/NFC Championship Best Bets !

The Bum's NFL Football AFC/NFC Championship Best Bets !

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