NFL Championship Week Plays

[roccodean]

1-5*

2* Baltimore +7.5 over NE (possible upgrade to 3*)
analysis to follow
jump on this early

[roccodean]

Balt
This is game is about public perception and line value. The Pats should not be favored by 7+ points in this game. Before the divisional round of the playoffs you could bet this game and the line was NE -3.5 (this was based on 16 games). Now, after 60 minutes of football the line moved 4.5 points? Classic over reaction. My calculated line is NE -4.5. But, after Balt looked bad against Houston and NE blew out Denver Vegas had to set this line higher because of the public action that would be coming in on NE if it wasn't 7+. And the public loves to bet offenses (like the Saints versus SF). If anyone can slow down the Pats offense it's the Ravens who gave up only 3.5 YPR (1st in NFL during reg season) and 6.4 YPPA (3rd). I will admit I an not sold on Balt's offense (12th in YPR, 22nd YPPA during reg season) especially there passing game, but NE's D is so bad they will be able to cover the big spread. NE gives up 8 YPPA (29th during reg season) and 4.6 YPR (24th during reg season). Rice is going to have a huge day. Give me the points!

[ravenmaniac]

Bol Rocco

[roccodean]

Another interesting fact: Ravens 7-0 vs. playoff teams and the Pats haven't beat a winning team all season.

[ravenmaniac]

Another interesting fact: Ravens 7-0 vs. playoff teams and the Pats haven't beat a winning team all season.

According to Wayne this is not a true statement

[roccodean]

According to Wayne this is not a true statement

I read that thread. IMO it is better to look at a team's record over 16 games as opposed to how many games they have played previous to facing NE. It is a bigger sample size and thus more accurate. Buff was 2-0 when facing NE, but they ended the season 6-10. Obviously the 6-10 record is more telling of a team than the 2-0.

[ravenmaniac]

I read that thread. IMO it is better to look at a team's record over 16 games as opposed to how many games they have played previous to facing NE. It is a bigger sample size and thus more accurate. Buff was 2-0 when facing NE, but they ended the season 6-10. Obviously the 6-10 record is more telling of a team than the 2-0.

Agreed. As Bill Parcells said you are what your record says you are. So a 6-10 team is a bad team, just because you beat them when they were 2-0 doesn't make them a good team.

[Swoleslaw]

For the most part, I agree that a team's overall record over 16 games is a lot more telling but in the case of Buffalo . . . their demise was pretty much directly correlated with key defensive injuries starting with their all pro nose tackle. I agree that they were never an elite team (they got really lucky with turnovers early on) but I have to think they were well above average when the beat the Pats.

[harold_bush]

For the most part, I agree that a team's overall record over 16 games is a lot more telling but in the case of Buffalo . . . their demise was pretty much directly correlated with key defensive injuries starting with their all pro nose tackle. I agree that they were never an elite team (they got really lucky with turnovers early on) but I have to think they were well above average when the beat the Pats.

and by far their best offensive player in Fred Jackson. FJax was unbelievably good before the injury.

[Kaptain]

gl today....like the call, hope you're right

[Spark]

Good Luck today rocco

[Sirporkie]

GL rocco

[roccodean]

thx guys

[roccodean]