Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2012, 08:16 PM

Virginia In ACC Showdown At Duke Blue Devils

Thursday night's top matchups on the college hoops front will run from coast-to-coast with stops in four conferences for crucial showdowns. The evening will be headlined by a top-25 clash in the ACC where the streaking Virginia Cavaliers trek into Durham to meet Duke.

Just the second conference game for both teams, it's the only regular season meeting between the Blue Devils and Cavaliers, Nos. 8 and 16 respectively in the latest AP poll. It should be an amped-up crowd at Cameron Indoor Stadium for Duke's conference home opener, and obviously the first real test under the brightest of lights this year for Tony Bennett and Virginia.

The Cavs will bring a 12-game win streak and some very impressive defensive stats into Thursday's tilt, including the second-fewest points allowed (50.5 per game). Virginia has especially been solid in limiting opponents to just one shot per trip down the floor, and the Cavaliers will need every bit of defense they can muster against a Blue Devils bunch that ranks eighth nationally in scoring (82.1), field goal shooting (49.8%) and 3-point success (41.7%).

Beating Duke period has been tough enough for the Cavaliers in this series, with the Blue Devils winning the last seven overall and owning a 114-48 advantage all-time. Winning here at Cameron has proven even tougher for Virginia who has dropped 14 straight in Durham. The Cavs appeared to be on their way to stopping that streak just about a year ago on their last trip to this floor, building a 10-point lead in the first half only to get wiped out in the last 20 minutes and drop the contest by a 76-60 final with Duke laying 21½.

ESPN has this broadcast starting at 9:00 p.m. (ET), and the lead-in matchup two hours earlier on the same channel is a Big Ten battle between the Wisconsin Badgers and Purdue Boilermakers.

It's an overused cliché, but this truly is a must-win for Bo Ryan and Wisconsin who suddenly find themselves in the throes of a three-game conference losing skid. The defense has still been doing its job for the most part, but the Badgers have gone stone-cold on offense. Their best effort during the losing streak was hitting less than 35 percent from the field in the loss at home to Iowa, and they've canned just 15 of their last 70 attempts from 3-point land.

Purdue, on the other hand, is off to a 3-1 start to the Big Ten campaign, the Boilermakers sinking at least 50 percent of their shots in wins over Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota but falling apart in an ugly 20-point defeat at Penn State. This game should hinge on which team can find its touch from outside since neither team is prone to giving the ball away. The Badgers (8.6) and Boilers (9.9) are the top two teams in the country in fewest turnovers per game.

Wisconsin and Purdue split their two meetings last season, each winning and covering as home favorites. The Boilermakers have won seven of the last 10 overall, including the last five on their home floor in West Lafayette.

Jacksonville State at Murray State – 8:00 p.m. (ET)

How can you not be a Racers fan right now? Murray State's attempt to go through the regular season undefeated shouldn't be contested Thursday when Steve Prohm's squad should be heavy favorites over a very bad Jacksonville State group that will begin a 3-game road trip with this clash at CFSB Center.

Murray State has not only been winning on the floor, but also at the college basketball betting window with an 8-3-1 ATS mark. The biggest danger in this game is the Racers have a much tougher matchup this Saturday when they host Tennessee Tech, the team that effectively kept them from getting an invite to last year's NCAA Tournament.

Junior guard Isaiah Canaan is coming off a big 35-point effort the last time out to lead the Racers past Austin Peay. Canaan connected on all but one of his eight 3-point shots, and Murray State has been very efficient overall so far in conference games. The Racers are shooting over 55 percent in their four Ohio Valley games, and 51.5 percent from long-range.

Murray State will be without leading rebounder Ivan Aska for this game, and probably Saturday's as well. The senior forward is still mending a broken bone in his right hand and has missed the last two games already.

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's – 11:00 p.m. (ET) ESPN2

If you can only see one game Thursday night, this classic West Coast Conference duel gets my endorsement as the one to watch. It's the first of two meetings on the schedule between the Bulldogs and Gaels – with Saint Mary's returning the visit to Gonzaga on Feb. 9 – and it finds both teams off to unbeaten starts in the WCC. The 4-0 Gaels have a half-game lead over the 3-0 Bulldogs as far as the conference standings go.

West Coast kingpins for a while now, Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are adjusting to sharing some of the conference limelight with BYU after the Cougars joined the ranks. The Gaels and the Bulldogs both bring stout defenses into this matchup, though Gonzaga's defenders have been even tougher so far in conference action allowing just 52 points per game. That defense has translated into a 10-2 'under' mark for the Zags overall this season.

Saint Mary's is surrendering nearly 67 per game in WCC play, though some of those numbers can be attributed to the fact the Gaels have taken on BYU already while Gonzaga has not.

Each team took turns beating one another on their home courts last season, with the Bulldogs winning the rubber match during the postseason tourney. Gonzaga has come out on top the last three at McKeon Pavilion, most recently last February in a thrilling 89-85 overtime fight with Saint Mary's favored by 3½.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-11-2012, 08:18 PM

Canucks Close 4-Game Trip At St. Louis Blues

Thursday night's NHL betting action is going to be significant for a number of teams, as the trade deadline of February 27 draws near. There are a slew of squads that you wouldn’t think of as traditional buyers at the deadline, and though Thursday night is only one of the 20 or so games that the teams will play before Feb. 27, every game counts with these tightly-packed playoff chases.

We’ll start with the Ottawa Senators. The Sens would be the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs if they started today, but they have been outscored by four goals on the season and have the second most goals allowed in the conference.

That’s all bad news on Thursday night when Ottawa travels to face top team in the East in a battle against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers have some salary cap room to work with, and this is as close as they have come in years to being legit Stanley Cup contenders now that they Brad Richards is in the Big Apple.

New York enters this one having won five in a row and 10 out of 11 on the NHL betting lines. The puck drops at 7:00 p.m. (ET), and the game can be seen on MSG2 and RSNE.

The Nashville Predators made a name for themselves last year when they made it to the second round of the playoffs before dropping out, and they are hoping to contend in the brutal Central Division. The Predators and the team that they are facing on Thursday night, the Colorado Avalanche, are separated by just three points in the standings, but if the playoffs started right now, Nashville would be the No. 6 seed and Colorado would be out at No. 10.

Both teams are playing well. The Predators have won six out of nine, while Colorado, despite a two-game skid, has still won seven out of 10. The puck drops at 8:00 (ET) in Bridgestone Arena, and Altitude will have the TV pickup for the game.

On Tuesday night, the New York Islanders knocked off the Detroit Red Wings, and the boys from Long Island moved to 6-0-1 in their last seven against the men from Motown. We sure hope that the Isles enjoyed that success. On Thursday, the Philadelphia Flyers come to town, and they haven’t been beaten by New York in seven straight tries. The Islanders only have two points to show for those seven meetings.

The showcase game of the evening pits the Vancouver Canucks against the St. Louis Blues. The Canucks are about to finish up a very tough road trip that has already seen them take on two division leaders.

They split their proceedings against the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers, and now, they have the Blues to deal with. St. Louis’ net minders have seven shutouts between them this year, but Roberto Luongo is going to come into this one fresh from three straight off days.

St. Louis has played well in this series this year already, handing the Canucks a 3-0 loss in British Columbia and a 3-2 defeat here in the Gateway to the West. You won’t want to miss this contest, which will start from Scottrade Arena at 8:00 p.m. (ET) on RSNP and FOX Sports Midwest.

Elsewhere on the NHL rotation schedule for Thursday, the Boston Bruins will host the struggling Montreal Canadiens at 7:00 p.m.. The 7:30 starts include the Phoenix Coyotes at the Detroit Red Wings and the Carolina Hurricanes at the Tampa Bay Lightning. At 8:30, the Minnesota Wild will look to try to get back to their winning ways against the Chicago Blackhawks and the San Jose Sharks try to take a bite out of the Winnipeg Jets.

Late-night affairs have the Calgary Flames welcome the Anaheim Ducks to the Saddledome for a 9:30 skate. The evening on the ice wraps up at 10:30 p.m., when the Dallas Stars take on the Los Angeles Kings.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 06:51 PM

Red-hot Knicks visit Memphis Thursday

NEW YORK KNICKS (6-4)

at MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (3-6)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -5, Total: 193.5

The Knicks look for their fifth straight win when they travel to Memphis Thursday night.

New York swept the Grizzlies, SU and ATS, last season. Memphis has lost three in a row SU and ATS and will continue to be without star PF Zach Randolph (knee). But this will be a tough travel day for New York, who played Philadelphia at home on Wednesday night while the Grizzlies had the night off. Considering New York’s shortened rotation—just eight—and the nagging injuries that have already bothered stars Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire this season, it’s going to be difficult for New York to bounce back. MEMPHIS, which is 28-14 ATS (67%) as a home favorite in the past two seasons, is the pick.

The FoxSheets provide a four-star rating backing the Grizzlies:

MEMPHIS is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was MEMPHIS 99.0, OPPONENT 90.7 - (Rating = 4*).

The Over is 11-3 in the past 14 matchups of the Grizzlies hosting the Knicks. The FoxSheets expect that trend to continue Thursday with another meeting finishing OVER the total.

Play Over - Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (NEW YORK) - after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season. (28-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 2*).

While they’re just 2-3 SU and ATS since losing Randolph, the Grizzlies have been competitive. They were within four points of the Lakers in the fourth quarter at L.A. on Sunday (90-82 loss), and they were neck-and-neck with Oklahoma City in a 100-95 home loss on Tuesday. They have five players averaging double-digits since Randolph went down, led by SF Rudy Gay’s 18.8 PPG and C Marc Gasol’s 12.6 PPG and 12.2 RPG. PF Marreese Speights, acquired from Philadelphia in large part to replace Randolph, has scored double-digits each of the past two games with 27 points on 13-of-26 FG. Mike Conley hasn’t shot well this season (39% FG), but he has 6.6 APG and ranks second in the NBA with 2.57 steals per game. Conley had 36 points and 12 assists in the two meetings with New York last year.

The Knicks scored a nice home win over the 76ers on Wednesday, though Philly was playing without C Spencer Hawes (back), a star in the early season. Each of New York’s five starters played 35+ minutes. They got their usual strong performances from SF Carmelo Anthony, who scored 27 points (albeit on 24 shot attempts). PF Amar’e Stoudemire added 20 and 10 rebounds, and C Tyson Chandler had 13 boards. The most surprising performance of the night was 275-pound rookie C Josh Harrellson, who came off the bench to score 13 and shoot 3-for-5 from three. The rest of the Knicks combined to shoot 3-for-17 from behind the arc. SG Toney Douglas has had a rough season (33% FG), but he lit up Memphis last year for 47 points on 13-of-20 threes in the two meetings. Anthony averaged 29.5 PPG in the two Knicks victories

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 06:53 PM

Magic seek 3rd straight win visiting Golden State

ORLANDO MAGIC (7-3)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (3-6)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Orlando -3.5, Total: 185

The Magic and Warriors are coming off their most impressive wins of the season as they get set for a matchup at Golden State Thursday night.

The Magic have won the first two games of their Pacific Northwest road trip, SU and ATS, winning at Sacramento on Sunday and scoring an impressive win in Portland Wednesday night. But they were outscored 36-22 in the fourth quarter in Portland, and they’re only playing an eight-man rotation because of injuries. They also got a big boost from an unsustainable 16-for-27 (59.3%) shooting night from behind the arc. The Warriors, meanwhile, picked up major momentum with a huge comeback win over a full-strength Miami team on Tuesday night. Orlando is good, but not good enough to be favored on the road in the second night of a back-to-back. GOLDEN STATE is the pick here.

The FoxSheets have another trend working against the Magic:

ORLANDO is 9-23 ATS (28.1%, -16.3 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ORLANDO 91.7, OPPONENT 91.6 - (Rating = 2*).

The Magic had seven players score in double-digits, and none more than 17, in their 107-104 win in Portland, one of the toughest places to play in the NBA. After Wednesday’s performance, they’re shooting 40.2% from behind the arc (4th in league). They continue to get a breakout year from PF Ryan Anderson (17.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG), who had 16 points and nine boards in Portland, and is shooting 41.3% from three. The Warriors will have difficulty countering C Dwight Howard (18.0 PPG, 14.4 RPG). He averaged 17.5 PPG and 19.0 RPG in two meetings with Golden State last season.

The Warriors overcame a 17-point deficit before beating the Heat in overtime Tuesday night. And they did it without PG Stephen Curry, who is likely to miss this game as well with an ankle injury. In beating Miami, they got a big night from slumping SF Dorell Wright (7.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG), who had by far his best game of the season with 20 points, including 6-of-11 from three, and 10 rebounds. SG Monta Ellis (23.9 PPG, 7.5 APG) added 22 but was extremely inefficient, needing 25 shots to get there (9-of-25 FG). Golden State got a stunning performance from G Nate Robinson, who was just signed to the roster last week. He had 24 points off the bench, including 14-for-14 from the free throw line, while adding five assists, four steals and four rebounds in his 36 minutes of action.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 06:55 PM

No. 8 Duke hosts No. 16 Virginia Thursday

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (14-1)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (13-2)

Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Duke -9.5, Total: 128.5

No. 16 Virginia will face its toughest opponent of the year when it travels down to Cameron Indoor Stadium Thursday night to take on No. 8 Duke.

Duke brings one of basketball’s highest-powered offenses to the table at 82.1 PPG, eighth in the nation. The Blue Devils are very efficient on the offensive end with a 49.8% FG clip, also eighth-best in the country. However, they could have a tough time trying to get into rhythm offensively against the Cavaliers who hold opponents to 50.5 PPG, the second-lowest total in the nation. Teams are shooting a measly 38% against the tenacious Virginia defense that is especially aggressive in shutting down opposing 3-point shooters. Foes make just 4.3 treys per game against the Cavs on 27% shooting from beyond the arc. Both Virginia and Duke have played one ACC game so far this season, with each team earning an SU win and an ATS loss. Still, the Cavaliers have been a great play ATS this season, going 7-3 against the lines and 4-1 ATS away from home. They will have a tough matchup going into a hostile environment such as Cameron, but they are receiving a good amount of help from the books. Play on underdog VIRGINIA to keep this one very tight throughout.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also likes the Cavaliers as the pick against the spread.

VIRGINIA is 18-6 ATS (75.0%, +11.4 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was VIRGINIA 61.5, OPPONENT 59.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Virginia (14-1) is led by senior Mike Scott (16.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) who was averaging a double-double last season before getting injured. He is an elite post threat who is crafty around the hoop and should give Duke’s Mason Plumlee a hard time. Notably, Scott scores his points on a ridiculous 60% FG. Beyond him, however, Virginia is not terribly dangerous on the offensive end. Joe Harris (12.3 PPG) is an athletic body at guard, standing 6-foot-6, and has made 50% FG since starting the season 9-for-29 (31%). To pull off the upset, these two, and downtown threat Sammy Zeglinski (9.9 PPG, 42% 3-pt FG) will have to be in top form keeping the Blue Devils in check on both ends.

Duke (13-2) has a more varied offensive attack than the Cavaliers with four players averaging double-digit points. That crew is led by freshman guard Austin Rivers (14.7 PPG) who has struggled since 2012 began with just 9.3 PPG on 31% FG in three games. Seth Curry (12.9 PPG, team-high 2.9 APG) is also instrumental in the backcourt, while Quinn Cook has come on aggressively recently as the new starting point guard with 10.2 PPG and 5.2 APG in his past five contests. This game may really boil down to the battle in the paint, however, with Ryan Kelly (12.6 PPG), Mason Plumlee and Miles Plumlee all seeing time guarding Scott. Mason Plumlee is the best of that trio offensively, tallying 11.7 PPG with 9.8 RPG on a 62% FG. He just has to stay out of foul trouble (a common problem for him) to allow the Blue Devils to remain competitive on the interior.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 06:56 PM

No. 21 Gonzaga and Saint Mary's meet as WCC unbeatens

GONZAGA BULLDOGS (13-2)

SAINT MARY’S GAELS (15-2)

Tip-off: Thursday, 11:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Saint Mary’s -3.5, Total: 142

No. 21 Gonzaga faces a stiff road test when it travels to West Coast Conference foe Saint Mary’s on Thursday night.

Leading Saint Mary’s this season to success has been its strong passing with 17.3 APG, the eighth-best average in the nation. But their guards live off distributing the ball inside to Rob Jones wreaking havoc on opponents with a double-double average this season (15.4 PPG, 10.5 RPG). Gonzaga, on the other hand, is led in scoring by one of their guards, the dynamic Kevin Pangos (14.2 PPG), who is an elite threat from deep range (40% 3-pt FG). Both the Gaels and the Bulldogs have been strong ATS this season, going 7-5 and 9-6, respectively. But, Gonzaga is 3-0 ATS in WCC play while Saint Mary’s is just 2-2. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have owned the head-to-head matchup in recent years, going 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) against the Gaels, including 3-0 at McKeon Pavilion. Play on GONZAGA as slight underdogs, to win again on the road.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Bulldogs to pull off the mild upset.

GONZAGA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The average score was GONZAGA 77.0, OPPONENT 56.0 - (Rating = 3*).

Gonzaga relies on the deep ball, averaging 7.1 made 3-pt FG per game, with Pangos leading that charge with 2.5 of those. But 6-foot-7 forward Elias Harris also adds a trey per game on his way to 12.7 PPG and 7.7 RPG while freshman guard Gary Bell has also proven to be a threat from beyond the arc at 41% accuracy. A key element for the Bulldogs though, will be the strength of their interior defense against Jones. Although he is just 6-foot-6, he is clever around the basket and should find ways to maneuver around Harris and 7-foot center Robert Sacre (1.5 BPG) without effective help defense. Receiving help from the spread, play on the Bulldogs to pull this game out.

The Gaels are led by Jones who has shown he can be a multi-dimensional threat, scoring from both inside and outside. But Matthew Dellavedova (15.2 PPG, 39% 3-pt FG) is their primary distributor, leading the team with 6.5 APG and 3.0 turnovers per game. At 6-foot-4, the Australia native can be difficult to match up against, something the Bulldogs will need to figure out early in this matchup. Beyond those two, Stephen Holt (9.5 PPG), Jorden Page (8.9 PPG) and Clint Steindl (8.4 PPG) are all regular contributors with Steindl leading the team with an impressive 44% clip from three-point land.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 06:59 PM

Thursday Tips

January 11, 2012

The college basketball conference season is starting to heat up as several leagues are getting around to their third games already. Meanwhile, the Big 10 has gotten off to a nice jump start with teams playing their fifth game of conference play, including an intriguing matchup in Bloomington on Thursday night.

Minnesota at Indiana (-11, 142) - 8:00 PM EST

The Hoosiers continue to be one of the biggest surprises in the country after starting the season at 15-1, including a December upset of previously top-ranked Kentucky at home. Indiana goes for its fourth conference victory in five tries when Minnesota invades Assembly Hall, while the Golden Gophers remain winless in Big 10 play at 0-4.

Minnesota finished non-conference action at 12-1, but Tubby Smith's club has stubbed its toe recently with four straight losses. Following road setbacks at Illinois and Michigan, the Gophers fell at home to Iowa and Purdue as favorites, while digging themselves into a 15-point halftime hole in the loss to the Boilermakers. Minnesota is listed as an underdog for just the third time all season, with the lone cover coming in the five-point defeat at Michigan as six-point 'dogs.

Tom Crean's squad endured a tough road the last three seasons with a 28-66 overall record and 8-46 mark inside conference play. However, Crean kept plugging away and returned Indiana to national prominence with a strong start, including Big 10 victories over Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State. The upset of the Buckeyes as five-point 'dogs marked the third outright win when getting points this season.

The home team has won each of the last five meetings in the series, including a pair of games last season decided by a total of seven points. Indiana managed a cover in each game, while beating Minnesota in Bloomington, 60-57 as three-point underdogs. However, the Hoosiers own a 1-9 ATS mark the previous 10 games in Big 10 action dating back to last season.

Virginia at Duke (-9 ½, 129) - 9:00 PM EST

Two of the top three teams in the ACC meet up at Cameron Indoor Stadium as both the Cavaliers and Blue Devils are 1-0 in conference play. Duke was expected to be a top-10 team at this point, but Virginia has turned many heads with its impressive 14-1 start to the season.

The Cavaliers edged Miami (FL) in the conference opener, 52-51, but failed to cash as 7 ½-point favorites. Tony Bennett's club is known for playing low-scoring games, as the Wahoos are 9-1 to the 'under' in 10 lined contests this season. The lone 'over' came in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge as Virginia ran out Michigan, 70-58, eclipsing the total of 115 ½.

Duke returns home after splitting a pair of road contests at Temple and Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils were tripped up in Philadelphia by the Owls, 78-73 as 7 ½-point favorites, while allowing Temple to shoot 56% from the floor. Duke rebounded with a win in the ACC opener at Georgia Tech, 81-74, but couldn't cover a hefty 11 ½-point number. Mike Krzyzewski's team is a perfect 7-0 at home, while going 4-3 ATS, including an 0-2 ATS mark when laying less than 20 points.

The Blue Devils have claimed seven straight meetings in this series, with each victory coming by double-digits. The Cavaliers did manage a cover in Durham last season as 21 ½-point underdogs, as Duke overcame a six-point halftime deficit with a 51-29 second-half surge.

What else to watch for:

-- Middle Tennessee State is one of the top ATS teams in the nation by covering 12 of 15 lined games this season. The Blue Raiders continue Sun Belt play at Florida International tonight, as MTSU has won each of the last five matchups. MTSU is riding a three-game ATS win streak, as its last non-cover came at home to FIU in a five-point victory as 18-point 'chalk.'

-- Gonzaga has covered six of its last seven games as the Bulldogs head to California for a battle with St. Mary's in a WCC showdown. Mark Few's club is riding a solid 6-1 'under' streak, while holding each of its last seven opponents to 61 points or less. St. Mary's has seen the 'over' hit in five of the previous seven contests, including three of four in WCC play.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:02 PM

Hoop Trends - Thursday

January 12, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Hawks are 0-12-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since January 10, 2004 with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bobcats are 0-10 OU (-12.8 ppg) since March 05, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:

The Knicks are 12-0-1 ATS (6.0 ppg) since October 29, 2010 after a win in which Amare Stoudemire had a double double.

CHOICE TREND:

The Warriors are 10-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since April 14, 2006 as a dog with at most one day of rest off a home win that broke at least a three-game losing streak.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Magic are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 13, 1997 on the road as a favorite with no rest when their opponent has averaged at least nine steals per game at home season-to-date.The Knicks are 9-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since March 30, 2007 after a home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:04 PM

Thursday’s betting tips: Virginia looks for upset at Duke

Who’s hot

NBA: Detroit has covered in each of its last four meetings with Milwaukee.

NBA: Cleveland has covered in five of its last six against Phoenix.

NHL: Ottawa is 20-6 in its last 16 games at Madison Square Garden.

NHL: Colorado has won nine of its last 12.

NCAAB: Virginia is 7-2 against the spread in its last nine overall.

NCAAB: Murray State is 7-1-1 against the spread in its last nine overall.

Who’s not

NBA: The over is 2-8 in the Phoenix Suns’ last 10.

NBA: Milwaukee is 4-9 against the spread in its last 13 overall.

NHL: Anaheim is 2-7 in its last nine following a win.

NHL: Tampa Bay has lost four in a row.

NCAAB: Stanford is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven overall.

NCAAB: Minnesota is 3-12-1 against the spread in its last 16 Big Ten games.

Key stat

88.2 – The No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers have covered the spread in 15 of their last 17 road games (88.2 percent) heading into Thursday’s big matchup with the Duke Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Roman Harper, New Orleans Saints – Harper was a surprise scratch from Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury and his status for Saturday’s game against San Francisco is in question. The strong safety is a huge asset to New Orleans’ run defense and led the team in tackles and sacks in the regular season. The Saints are pegged as 3.5-point road favorites.

Game of the day

Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils (-9.5, 129)

Notable quotable

“If you disrespect any team in this league, you will get disrespected. We're not losing just because we're playing quality teams. We're losing because we don't deserve to win right now.” – Detroit Pistons coach Lawrence Frank. The Pistons have dropped five in a row straight up and against the spread ahead of Thursday’s matchup with Milwaukee. Detroit is set as an 8-point underdog.

Notes and tips

New York Giants cornerback Aaron Ross passed a battery of tests for a head injury and returned to practice on Wednesday. The same can not be said for Giants running back D.J. Ware, who has dealt with concussions in the past. He has not been cleared to practice and may sit out Sunday's playoff game against the defending champion Green Bay Packers. Both Ross and Ware suffered concussions during last Sunday's 24-2 victory over the Atlanta Falcons at MetLife Stadium. The 20th overall pick of the 2007 draft, Ross had 60 tackles and four interceptions in 16 games this season. The Giants are 7.5-point underdogs at Green Bay.

Montreal Canadiens captain Brian Gionta will be sidelined indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a right biceps muscle. Gionta was hurt in the third period of Tuesday's game against St. Louis. It was only his second game back after missing a month with a groin injury. The surgery was performed Wednesday in Montreal and the team called the procedure a success. Gionta, who will turn 33 next week, has eight goals and seven assists in 31 games this season. He had played in 153 consecutive games before suffering a groin injury on Dec. 8 against Vancouver.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:06 PM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Rutgers 62, Pitt 39. At Pitt. Least points Panthers have scored since 1973. They're 0-4 in the Big East. Not good.

-- CNN reports it costs our government 11 cents to a make a nickel, which explains a lot, none of it good.

-- Nets were 20-35 beyond the arc last night, rallying from 20 down after three quarters to lose by 8 and cover the spread at Denver.

-- Miami Heat had 76 in-season practices LY, 76 chances to get better. This season, the Heat will have only 24 in-season practices.

-- Clippers beat Miami in OT, in a terrific game late Wednesday night.

-- Why did the NBA Players' Association approve this schedule? It is bizarre and thats being kind. Too many games; wouldn't be surprised to see a rash of injuries as the season gets older.

*************

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind........

13) If you watch any golf this winter, you have to root for Erik Compton, a 32-year old Tour rookie. Why? Because the guy is on his third heart. You heard me right. His third freakin’ heart. He had his first transplant when he was 12, then another one as an adult. So root for him. I'm pretty sure he's earned it.

12) If you had to choose a quarterback to play one game this Sunday, who would you pick, Tim Tebow or Cam Newton?

11) College football coaches won’t be on TV for the next three weeks, but its their busiest three weeks of the whole year. Recruiting season. Signing Day is February 1; games from 2013-2016 will have outcomes determined by what acceptance letters come in on whose fax machines February 1. Its an industry all to itself.

If you’re interested in recruiting, go find Bruce Feldman’s excellent book, Meat Market. All about college football recruiting. Educational book. If you know me, give me a shout and you can borrow my copy.

10) You can bet on which two teams will meet in Super Bowl; longshot exacta is Giants-Broncos, at 175-1.

9) I always thought it would suck to have been born on February 29; you only get a birthday once every four years. Looked it up, the two most famous people I could find that were born on the 366th day are Tony Robbins, the motivational speaker and Henri Richard, the hockey player.

8) There are only three ACC teams in the college basketball top 50. That doesn’t happen very many years.

7) How weird is it to look at Pac-12 standings and see Colorado leading the way? Pac-12 has now slipped to 8th in conference ratings, behind the Atlantic 14.

6) Someone has to explain to me why Idaho and Louisiana Tech are in the same league; this baffles me. Get a map, find Idaho, then find Louisiana; they’re not close to each other.

5) Golfer Steve Stricker has won 12 PGA tournaments, nine of them since he turned 40. That’s a very unusual career arc.

4) Raiders’ owner Mark Davis is making noise about moving the Silver and Black to Los Angeles. Again. Maybe they could just find the geographic midpoint between Oakland and LA and build a stadium there.

3) So George Clooney is dating Stacy Keibler, the former WWE wrestler? I haven’t watched WWE in years, but I was watching when she broke in to pro wrestling 10-12 years ago. I don’t even have a comment or a joke here, it just struck me as weird. Good luck to them.

2) Pete Carroll makes $7M a year?!?!?!?! wtf? Belichick makes $7.5M and Shanahan $7M, but they’ve won five titles between them. What has Pete flippin’ Carroll done in the NFL to deserve a $7M salary? Yikes.

1) Someone once said that half of life is showing up. Not if you’re Eldrick Woods, who is cashing in on a 7-figure appearance fee to play in a tournament in Abu Dhabi. In other words, he’s making $1M+, just for showing up!!!! Guy hasn’t won an official tournament in two years and he makes a million bucks just to show up. What a world this is.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:15 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, January 12

Clemson won six of its last seven games vs Boston College, but home side won eight of last nine series games, with Tigers winning by 34-23 in two ACC tourney meetings (70-47 LY). Clemson lost four of last five visits here. Eagles lost last three games by 21-6-23 points; best win for them was over #164 Stony Brook. ACC home underdogs are 3-0 against the spread. Clemson is 2-2 on road, but last road win was 45 days ago; they've lost since at Arizona by 16, Hawai'i by 6.

Home side won four in row and 10 of last 13 Wisconsin-Purdue games, with Badgers 0-5 in last five visits to Mackey Arena, losing by 8-4-13-3-8 points. Badgers lost last three games, scoring 55.3 ppg- they're 2-4 vs top 30 teams, beating BYU/UNLV. Big Dozen home favorites of 5 or less points are 1-3 vs spread. Purdue is 9-0 at home, but Miami/Illinois were only two visitors ranked in top 150; Boilers averaged 57.3 ppg in their four losses- their 61.4% mark from foul line is troubling.

Home side won last dozen Wright State-Milwaukee games; Raiders lost last nine visits here, by 15-6-5-7-4-11-7-1-6 points. so Wright couldn't win here even when they had good teams under Brownell. Raiders won four of six Horizon games, with four of six decided by 4 points or less; they've won five of last six games overall. Panthers are 3-5 in last eight games, with last two wins by total of three points. League single digit home favorites are 5-10 vs spread.

George Mason won six of last seven games vs Drexel, but lost by 13 in last visit here; Patriots are 4-0 in CAA, allowing 55.3 ppg- they're 4-2 on road, with best win at #114 Charleston (lost at FAU/Virginia). CAA single digit home favorites are 4-8 v spread. #80 Drexel won eight of last nine games, but they're 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win in last game by 6 over VCU. Dragons are 6-0 at home this season. Mason ended the 11-game winning streak of Georgia State in its last game.

Home team won last five Minnesota-Indiana games; Gophers lost four of last five visits to Indiana, losing by 12-14-3-3 points. Six of last nine series games were decided by 5 or less points. Minnesota lost first four league games, with road losses by 9-5 points, after being 12-1 in its non-conference schedule. Big Dozen double digit home favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Hoosiers won its last three games, by 4-2-6 points, after losing for first time this season, at Michigan State.

Oregon State is 3-10 in last 13 games vs Arizona, losing seven of its last eight visits here, with losses by 34-29-22-11-13-17-11 points. Dogs are 5-1 vs spread in last six series games. Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-3 vs spread. Beavers are 1-3 in Pac-12, losing last game in four OTs at home to Stanford- they've abandoned Princeton approach for run/chuck (#20 tempo in country). Arizona plays slower tempo (its average total in three Pac-12 games (2-1) is 115).

Tennessee lost two of last three games to Mississippi State, after taking previous five in series; Vols won last three visits to Starkville by 23-5-16 points. Tennessee won five of its last six games, but is 0-3 on foreign soil, with losses by 8-6-18 points. Bulldogs lost two of last three games; three of their last five games were decided by 5 or less points. SEC home favorites are 5-1 against the spread. Tennessee has only one senior in its top six players, but they have won five of last six games overall.

Utah State won six of last eight games vs New Mexico State, with home team 10-3 in last 13 series games; USU won two of last three visits here, after losing previous three. 9-7 Utah State is little down this year, with two home losses- they're 1-5 on road with only win at #308 Idaho State. NMS is 7-5 in last 12 games after 4-0 tart; they've lost last four games against top 100 teams. WAC home squads are 0-4 against spread when number is 6 or less points.

Virginia lost 13 of last 14 games against Duke, dropping last six visits to Durham by 18-14-19-18-25-16 points, but this is best Virginia team in a long time- they've won three road games (Oregon-Seattle-LSU) and beat Michigan by 12, only top 50 team they've played. Cavs won their last 12 games. Duke makes 41.7% behind arc; Virginia is 11th in country at defending the arc. Blue Devils sre 3-2 vs top 50 teams, with wins by 1-5-7 points. ACC favorites are 1-8-1 vs spread, 1-5-1 at home.

Oregon lost six of last seven games vs Arizona State, winning last four played here by 8-18-10-20 points, but they did beat ASU in conference tourney last March. Ducks split first four league games; all five of their losses this year are by 13+ points, but they're 10-0 against teams not in top 100, which ASU isn't. Pac-12 home teams are 6-4 vs spread when the number is 5 or less points. Sun Devils turn ball over 25.95% of time; they're shorthanded at guard, thanks to suspensions/ineligibity.

Gonzaga won eight of last ten games against St Mary's, winning three in row in Moraga by 2-7-4 points; road team won four of last seven games. 13-2 Bulldogs won last eight games, winning first three WCC games by 39-28-22 points- they split only true road games, losing at Illinois by 7, winning by 7 at Xavier. WCC home favorites are 7-2 against the spread. St Mary's won five in row, 12 of last 13 games; they're 11-0 at home, winning first two conference home games by 16-15 points.

Colorado leads Pac-12 with 3-0 record, but all three wins were at home; Buffaloes are on road for first time since a 65-64 loss at Colorado State, 44 days ago- Buffs won by 3 at Air Force in their other road game. Cal Bears are 11-0 at home, with 10 wins by 16+ points; they've allowed 85+ points in three of four losses. Colorado is 0-2 vs teams in top 100, losing to Wichita State by 9, Wyoming by 11. Pac-12 home favorites of 7+ points are 6-2 against the spread this season.

Iona blasted Manhattan 102-65 in last series meeting, its sixth win in last eight series games; four of Gaels' last five series wins are by 12+ points. Iona is 5-0 in MAAC, with wins by 12-36-36-12-24 points; this is just their second home game in last 45 days. Vastly-improved Jaspers (10-7 this year after 17-45 last two years) turn ball over 24.9% of time, they're 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 36-5-20 points. MAAC double digit home favorites are 2-4 vs spread.

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:39 PM

NBA

Thursday, January 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:30 PM ET Atlanta -9.5 500
Atlanta - Under 184 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Milwaukee -8 500
Milwaukee - Under 177.5 500

New York - 8:00 PM ET New York +4.5 500
Memphis - Under 194 500

Cleveland - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix -7 500
Phoenix - Under 196 500

Orlando - 10:30 PM ET Golden State +3 500
Golden State - Under 185.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:42 PM

NHL

Thursday, January 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Montreal - 7:00 PM ET Montreal +216 500
Boston - Over 5 500

Philadelphia - 7:00 PM ET Philadelphia -149 500
NY Islanders - Over 5.5 500

Ottawa - 7:00 PM ET Ottawa +156 500
NY Rangers - Under 5.5 500

Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Tampa Bay -154 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Phoenix - 7:30 PM ET Phoenix +174 500
Detroit - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -116 500
St. Louis - Over 5 500

Colorado - 8:00 PM ET Colorado +142 500
Nashville - Over 5 500

San Jose - 8:30 PM ET San Jose -144 500
Winnipeg - Over 5.5 500

Minnesota - 8:30 PM ET Minnesota +176 500
Chicago - Under 5.5 500

Anaheim - 9:30 PM ET Anaheim +115 500
Calgary - Over 5.5 500

Dallas - 10:30 PM ET Los Angeles -149 500
Los Angeles - Under 5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 01-12-2012, 07:52 PM

NCAAB

Thursday, January 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

James Madison 14 1st 6:30 VCU -15 500
VCU 21

NC-Wilmington - 7:00 PM ET Georgia St -11.5 500
Georgia St -

Idaho - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +2 500
Louisiana Tech -

Samford - 7:00 PM ET Samford +8 500
Georgia Southern -

Clemson - 7:00 PM ET Clemson -8 500
Boston College -

Western Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina +14.5 500
Davidson -

Wofford - 7:00 PM ET Wofford +2.5 500
Chattanooga -

Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Iona -14 500
Iona -

Furman - 7:00 PM ET Furman +3 500
Appalachian St. -

Southern Utah - 7:00 PM ET Southern Utah +7.5 500
Indiana - Purdue -

Rider - 7:00 PM ET Siena -4 500
Siena -

Wisconsin - 7:00 PM ET Purdue -2.5 500
Purdue -

Elon University - 7:05 PM ET Citadel +3.5 500
Citadel -

Middle Tennessee St. - 7:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee St. -9 500
Florida International -

NC-Greensboro - 8:00 PM ET NC-Greensboro +16.5 500
Charleston -

Western Kentucky - 8:00 PM ET North Texas -7 500
North Texas -

UMKC - 8:00 PM ET North Dakota State -16.5 500
North Dakota State -

Oral Roberts - 8:00 PM ET Oral Roberts -6 500
Western Illinois -

South Dakota - 8:00 PM ET South Dakota State -15.5 500
South Dakota State -

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit +1 500
Green Bay -

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Indiana -11 500
Indiana -

George Mason - 8:00 PM ET Drexel -4 500
Drexel -

Wright St. - 8:00 PM ET Wright St. +9 500
Wis.-Milwaukee -

SIU - Edwardsville - 8:00 PM ET SE Missouri St. -12 500
SE Missouri St. -

Jacksonville St. - 8:00 PM ET Murray St. -19.5 500
Murray St. -

Tenn-Martin - 8:00 PM ET Tenn-Martin +11 500
Eastern Illinois -

Eastern Kentucky - 8:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky +5.5 500
Austin Peay -

South Alabama - 8:05 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette -8 500
Louisiana-Lafayette -

Arkansas-Little Rock - 8:30 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe +2 500
Louisiana-Monroe -

Oregon St. - 8:30 PM ET Arizona -5.5 500
Arizona -

Montana - 8:35 PM ET Northern Arizona +7.5 500
Northern Arizona -

Tennessee - 9:00 PM ET Mississippi St. -7.5 500
Mississippi St. -

Virginia - 9:00 PM ET Virginia +9.5 500 ACC UNDERDOG POD
Duke -

Utah St. - 9:00 PM ET Utah St. +4 500
New Mexico St. -

Montana St. - 9:00 PM ET Weber St. -14.5 500
Weber St. -

Portland St. - 9:05 PM ET Northern Colorado -6.5 500
Northern Colorado -

Utah - 10:00 PM ET Utah +23 500
Stanford -

Portland - 10:00 PM ET San Francisco -8.5 500
San Francisco -

San Diego - 10:00 PM ET Santa Clara -10 500
Santa Clara -

Cal Poly SLO - 10:00 PM ET Cal Poly SLO -5 500
UC Irvine -

Loyola Marymount - 10:00 PM ET Pepperdine +1 500
Pepperdine -

San Jose St. - 10:00 PM ET Nevada -16.5 500
Nevada -

UC Santa Barbara - 10:00 PM ET UC Santa Barbara -8 500
UC Riverside -

Hawaii - 10:00 PM ET Hawaii +7 500
Fresno St. -

Pacific - 10:05 PM ET CSU Northridge -4.5 500
CSU Northridge -

UC Davis - 10:05 PM ET Long Beach St. -25.5 500
Long Beach St. -

Eastern Washington - 10:05 PM ET Sacramento State +6 500
Sacramento State -

Oregon - 10:30 PM ET Arizona St. +0 500
Arizona St. -

Colorado - 11:00 PM ET California -12.5 500 PAC 12 POD
California -

Gonzaga - 11:00 PM ET Gonzaga +3.5 500 WCC POD
St. Mary's -

Announcement

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets NCAAB - NBA - NHL !

The Bum's Thursday's Best Bets NCAAB - NBA - NHL !

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment