The Bum's Tuesday's Best Bets NCAAB - NBA - NHL !

[StarDust Bum]

Heat And Thunder Early Powers In NBA Standings

The Los Angeles Lakers are .500, the Dallas Mavericks have the worst record in the Western Conference, and the only team in the supposedly stout Atlantic Division that is outscoring its foes this year is the Philadelphia 76ers. It is all part of the wild NBA betting season that is just getting underway.

Today, we are taking a look at some of the teams that are hot and some that are not, and we’re taking a look at the NBA schedule in the few days ahead.

We’ll start in the Sunshine State, where the teams are on absolute fire. The Orlando Magic and Miami Heat have combined to win nine games in a row, though they are only 5-4 ATS to show for those nine games. They are both going to have some big spreads to cover this week.

The Heat, who are remarkably only 2-3 ATS despite outscoring their foes by 12.2 PPG on the campaign, have the Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers at home on Monday and Wednesday.

The Magic take on the Detroit Pistons on Monday at the Palace at Auburn Hills, and then come home to take on the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are probably the worst team in the NBA this year, and they are certainly going to stay that way if they keep playing offense like this. John Wall is only shooting 32 percent from the field and hasn’t made a three-point basket all season long, and he is still pacing an offense that hasn’t scored more than 86 points in a game this year.

Needless to say, Washington is 0-4 SU and ATS (and 0-4 towards the 'over'), and has to deal with the Boston Celtics and the aforementioned Magic in a pair of road games on Monday and Wednesday respectively.

Out West, the four teams that were in the Western Conference Semifinals last year continue to be tremendous teases. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-0 SU, but they are only 1-3 ATS in their last four games. The defending NBA champs 1-4 SU with the Mavericks just a bit better versus the spread at 2-3. The Memphis Grizzlies are only 1-3 SU and ATS. And of course, the Lakers are 3-3 both SU and ATS and struggling to make headway.

This week, OKC and Big D take each other on yet again on Monday night in a game that can be seen nationally on NBA TV. To make matters worse, the Thunder have to come back home on Tuesday to face the Portland Trail Blazers, a team that is very quietly 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS and is outscoring foes by 7.5 PPG.

The only team with a perfect ATS record this season is the Minnesota Timberwolves. Sure, the team is just 1-3 SU to show for its four games of work, but it is a stingy club that is playing a lot better defense this season than you would think. The T-Wolves take on the San Antonio Spurs and the Grizzlies this week, so the road ahead won’t be easy, but as seemingly is always the case, you’ll be catching a lot of points on the NBA odds in those battles.

[StarDust Bum]

College Basketball Ready For Big 2012

The New Year is here and that means mostly conference games in college basketball where wins are tougher to come by and covers could be as well.

Several teams have had little trouble straight-up or against the spread. Creighton (11-2 SU, 7-2 ATS), Georgetown (12-1 SU, 7-1 ATS), Indiana (13-1 SU, 8-1 ATS), Murray State (14-0 SU, 7-2-1 ATS), Ohio (12-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) and Saint Louis (12-2 SU, 8-2 ATS), are six such teams, with Georgetown and Indiana previewed in mid-week games later in this article.

There are several solid ATS teams that have struggled getting wins. These include Dartmouth (3-11 SU, 5-1-1 ATS), Delaware (5-6 SU, 5-1 ATS), Idaho (7-7 SU, 7-3 ATS) and Texas El-Paso (7-7 SU, 8-2 ATS).

Finally, there have been plenty of teams to fade regardless of record. Clemson (8-6 SU, 2-7 ATS) George Washington (5-8 SU, 2-9 ATS), Kentucky (13-1 SU, 3-9-1 ATS), Texas Tech (7-5 SU, 1-7 ATS), Villanova (7-7 SU, 2-99 ATS) and UC Davis (1-12 SU, 2-9-1 ATS) all fall into that category.

Monday starts an intriguing week of games with Texas A&M visiting No. 7 Baylor and No. 24 Virginia at LSU. Both games are at 7:00 p.m. (ET).

Texas A&M (9-3 SU, 1-5 ATS) hasn’t gotten a cover since its opening game against Liberty. It has trouble scoring (64.8 PPG), but only allows 55.8 PPG. Baylor (13-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is loaded with talent, scoring 77.6 PPG and allowing 58.8 PPG, The Bears are 13½-point home favorites with a total of 124½. The underdog is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between the teams.

Virginia (12-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) is a 3-point road favorite over LSU (10-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) with a tiny total of 111½-points. This a late non-conference tilt between ACC and SEC foes. They are both heavy ‘under’ teams this year at 7-1 for Virginia and 8-2 for LSU. LSU is looking for revenge after losing 64-50 as 5 ½-point road ‘dogs last January.

Wisconsin Badgers host Spartans on Tuesday

Wisconsin (12-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) used to be one of the nation’s most feared home teams, winning 23 in a row before losing to Marquette 61-54 on December 3. A more shocking loss just came last Saturday, 72-65 as huge 17-point favorites against Iowa. The No. 11 Badgers rely a lot on 3-point shooting and a miserable 3-of-28 effort (10.7 percent) killed them against the Hawkeyes.

Wisconsin leads the nation in scoring defense (46.2 PPG). The ‘under’ is 9-3 despite going well ‘over’ the 124-point total against Iowa.

Michigan State (13-2 SU, 8-4 SU) has won 13 straight games after opening with losses against ACC powerhouses North Carolina and Duke. The schedule has been easier lately, although the Spartans did beat tough Indiana (80-65) and they are now No. 17 in the Coaches Poll after starting unranked. MSU leads the Big Ten in rebounding margin (10.5 per game) and Draymond Green and company will test the Badger big men.

Two top-25 matchups highlight Hump Day

The Big East will be in the spotlight on Wednesday when No. 13 Marquette visits No. 12 Georgetown. The Golden Eagles (12-2 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven, losing two recent games at LSU (67-59) and home to Vanderbilt (74-57). They survived their conference opener yesterday against struggling Villanova, 81-77 as 10-point home favorites.

Georgetown (12-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) has won 10 straight games, although did fail to cover for the first time last Saturday, 49-40 home win over Providence as 13 ½-point favorites. The biggest win (71-68) of the year was on the road over then No. 4 Louisville on December 28.

The in-state battle between Kansas and Kansas State is always one of the best in college basketball. It will be even better Wednesday with each ranked in the top-25 and this being the Big 12 opener for both teams.

Kansas State (11-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is up to No. 25 after low expectations and is scoring more this year (77 PPG) despite losing Jacob Pullen (20.2 PPG). Kansas (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) is ranked No. 18, but has questionable depth outside of forward Thomas Robinson (17.7 PPG, 12.2 RPG) and guard Tyshawn Taylor (15.3 PPG, 5.2 APG).

Big Ten contender Indiana hosts Michigan on Thursday

The No. 15 Indiana Hoosiers (13-1 SU) are a bettor’s dream with that 8-1 ATS mark and have gone from nice story in the Big Ten to conference contender. Five guys score in double-digits and they’re perfect at home, incredibly beating both No. 1 Kentucky and No. 2 Ohio State there. The OSU win was last Saturday (74-70), with the only loss at Michigan State (80-65) the prior game.

Michigan (12-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won seven straight, going 4-2 ATS in the lined games. The schedule has been pretty easy lately, opening the Big Ten with home wins over Minnesota (61-56) and Penn State (71-53). The No. 16 Wolverines lost their only true road game this year, 70-58 at Virginia back on November 29.

The ‘over’ is 8-2-1 for Michigan despite ranking seventh in the Big Ten in scoring offense (70.9 PPG) and fourth in defense (59.9 PPG). Low totals have played a big part.

[StarDust Bum]

Rangers And Bruins Remain Hot In Eastern Conference

While the true halfway point in the NHL season is still a few weeks away, the turn of the calendar into a new year tends to serve as a visual reminder that the playoffs are quickly approaching. The month of December treated some teams very well and saw others fall down in the standings.

The New York Rangers continue to keep pace with the Boston Bruins atop the Eastern Conference, currently holding the conference’s top seed with 50 points. The Rangers have won six of their last seven games, continuing to play great on both offense and defense; they scored at least three goals and gave up two or less in all six wins.

After getting off to a mediocre 12-12-1 start, the New Jersey Devils have gone 9-3 in their last 12 games, steadily climbing into the playoff picture. The offense has steadily improved as New Jersey has averaged 3.17 goals per game over the 12-game stretch, and the Devils are also getting it done after regulation with one win in overtime and a 3-0 record in the shootout in December.

Out West, the Chicago Blackhawks hold the top spot in the Western Conference with 52 points through 38 games. With a win over Detroit on December 30, the Blackhawks finished up the month of December an impressive 10-2-1. They’ll look to carry that momentum into the new year.

Two teams have come back from the dead out West in the Colorado Avalanche and the Los Angeles Kings. After a 5-1 start, Colorado went 8-15-1 and looked to be falling out of the Western Conference’s tight race entirely. But since December 13, the Avalanche are 8-2 with wins in seven of their last eight games. The goaltending tandem of Jean-Sebastian Giguere and Simeon Varlamov has held opponents to two goals or less in all seven of those wins.

Similarly, the Kings erased a hot start to the season (6-2-1) and fell to 14-14-4 with an ugly 8-12-3 run that ended in an 8-2 loss to Detroit on December 17. Since then, the Kings have picked up points in seven straight games (5-0-2) and are playing much more aggressively under new Head Coach Darryl Sutter. Included in the five wins were impressive wins over Chicago and Vancouver, the conference’s top two teams in the standings.

Looking at some teams that tailed off in December, the Buffalo Sabres went 4-7-3 in December and have lost eight of their last 10 games. Since starting the season 12-8-2, Edmonton has gone just 3-11-1 including losses in seven of its last eight games. Minnesota has won just one game in its last 10, going 1-6-3 over that stretch after starting the year off 20-7-3.

The surging Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings meet in Los Angeles Monday night at 10:30 p.m. (ET). Still recovering from their ugly stretches earlier in the season, points are at a premium for both of these teams trying to make the playoffs down the stretch.

Wednesday night, the Boston Bruins head to New Jersey to take on the Devils. Both teams have been playing well of late, and the Devils could make a statement with a win at home over the defending champions. Wednesday’s game starts at 7:30 p.m. (ET).

On Thursday night, the Philadelphia Flyers play host to the Chicago Blackhawks. Not only is this a great cross-conference game between two of the NHL’s top teams, but it is also a rematch of the 2009-10 Stanley Cup Final. Plenty of bad blood from that series should still remain. Thursday’s game begins at 7:00 p.m. (ET).

[StarDust Bum]

Hoop Trends - Tuesday

January 3, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bulls are 12-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since December 18, 2002 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Trailblazers are 0-12 OU (-12.5 ppg) since March 07, 2009 off a road loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak.


PLAYER BASED TREND OF THE DAY:

The Hawks are 0-10 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since January 12, 2011 after a win in which Joe Johnson shot better than 50% from the arc.


CHOICE TREND:

The Bucks are 0-8 OU (-13.4 ppg) since April 02, 2010 on the road after a loss on the road in which Andrew Bogut was not the Bucks’ high scorer.


TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since January 16, 2010 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had more turnovers than assists.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s betting tips: Wildcats slumping ATS at home

Who’s hot

NCAAF: The over is 10-1 in Michigan’s last 11 bowl games.

NBA: Houston is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven meetings with the Lakers.

NCAAB: UConn is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 against Seton Hall.

NHL: St. Louis is 16-5 in its last 21 home games.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Virginia Tech is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 overall.

NBA: Milwaukee is 0-9 against the spread in its last nine games in Utah.

NCAAB: Kentucky is 0-8-1 against the spread in its last nine home games.

NHL: Buffalo is 1-6 in its last seven overall.

Key stat

16.37 – The Tampa Bay Lightning sit last in the NHL money standings. They have dropped 16.37 units for their supporters this season with a 15-22 puckline record. They face the Toronto Maple Leafs, who rank 27th in the money standings, on Tuesday.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies - Randolph is day-to-day with a knee contusion and may be out of the lineup for the majority of the week. Randolph will miss Tuesday’s game against Sacramento and will undergo an MRI. The 30-year-old shot just 1-for-5 for two points and three rebounds in the one-sided loss to the Bulls Sunday. Randolph is averaging 14.8 points and 7.5 rebounds in four games so far this season.

Game of the day

Michigan Wolverines vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (3, 51)

Notable quotable

"This is going to be the freshest we're going to be. We had three games at home, then two days between games. We were playing good basketball, and we come down (to L.A.) and we don't play good basketball. From here on out, we'll have a day in between, and we're going to be playing a lot of games. (Sunday's loss was because of) fatigue or the holiday." – Portland Trail Blazers coach Nate McMillian about the team’s schedule. The Blazers play 18 games this month, tied for the most in the Association.

Notes and tips

The Virginia Tech Hokies were set as 1-point favorites when some oddsmakers opened their lines for Tuesday’s Sugar Bowl, but now you’ll see Michigan set around -3 with a few -2.5’s on the board. The Wolverines are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 non-conference games and almost 63 percent of *********** Consensus bettors were backing Michigan as of Monday night.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have lost swingman Jean-Paul Olukemi for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Cowboys coach Travis Ford says Olukemi suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Saturday's game against Virginia. Olukemi averaged 9.4 points and 4.8 rebounds this season. As a junior last season, he was named to the Big 12 all-rookie squad after averaging 11.1 points.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' quest to win a seventh Super Bowl title will take place without the services of running back Rashard Mendenhall. The club confirmed Monday that Mendenhall suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and will be lost for the entire postseason. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Mendenhall suffered no further damage to the knee, which was injured in Sunday's season-ending win over the Cleveland Browns. He's expected to undergo surgery within the next two weeks. Isaac Redman, who replaced Mendenhall on Sunday, will start in his place next week. Mendenhall had a sub-par season with 928 yards rushing following back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. He had only two 100-yard games, and managed more than 20 carries in a game just once.

San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili is out indefinitely after suffering a broken left hand in Monday's game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ginobili fractured the fifth metacarpal in his shooting hand in the first half of Monday's contest. He'll be reevaluated Tuesday in San Antonio. He was replaced in the lineup by James Anderson, who will likely see the bulk of the minutes in Ginobili's absence. The 34-year-old was averaging 19.8 points and 3.3 assists in four games entering Monday. He left with eight points in 12 minutes against the Timberwolves.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Michigan State rallied back from 16-0 deficit to beat Georgia 33-30 in OT. Dawgs were 10-4, losing first two and last two games.

-- Houston's Chase Keenum passed for 227 yards in 1st quarter against Penn State, most passing yards in any quarter in any bowl. Ever.

-- Florida scored TDs on kick return, blocked punt as they gave Ohio State its 7th loss of the year (24-17), most for Buckeyes since 1897.

-- Odd twist to the Colts/Polian drama: Bill Polian has another son who is Stanford's special teams coach. Stanford, where Andrew Luck plays.

-- Steeler RB Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL, is out for the year, big blow for the Pittsburgh running game.

-- They packed the Phillies' stadium for the NHL's outdoor game, with 46,967 fans watching the Rangers beat the Flyers 3-2. Quite an event.


*****************


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13........Ranking NFL playoff teams......

T30) Colts-- Didn't see the Polians getting fired; does that mean Caldwell gets to stay? That would be bizarre.
T30) Rams-- Whats done is done. Time to move on.
T30) Buccaneers-- Were worst team in league the last month.

12) Broncos-- In fairness, Tebow had better WRs at Florida than he does now, but he was 6-22 Sunday. Thats horrendous.

11) Lions-- Gave up 480 passing yards and six TDs to QB making his second NFL start. Now they play the Saints this week. Ouch.

10) Texans-- Survived lot of injuries to make playoffs for first time. Go out and enjoy it, Houstonians.

9) Bengals-- Have two rookie QBs ever faced each other in playoffs?

8) Falcons-- Underdog with best chance to win this weekend.

7) Giants-- Tough spot here, coming off emotional Jet/Dallas games.

6) Steelers-- 8-point road favorites at 8-8 Denver Sunday night.

5) 49ers-- If need be, Can Alex Smith go out and win the game?

4) Saints-- Bye or no bye, they're better than the 49ers.

3) Ravens-- Finally get a home playoff game under Harbaugh.

2) Patriots-- Fell behind at home 17-0/21-0 in their last two games against non-contenders. If defense wins championships, look out below.....

1) Packers-- Atlanta was first road team to win a playoff game on frozen tundra; Giants beat them in Lambeau playoff game four years ago. Pack wants Detroit to upset the Saints.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, January 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Nebraska - 6:30 PM ET Nebraska +23 500
Ohio St. - Under 124 500

Southern Utah - 7:00 PM ET Southern Utah +4.5 500
IUPU - Ft. Wayne -

Arkansas-Little Rock - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas-Little Rock +27.5 500
Kentucky -

UMKC - 7:00 PM ET Indiana - Purdue -10.5 500
Indiana - Purdue -

Oral Roberts - 7:00 PM ET Over 150.5 500
Oakland -

UAB - 7:00 PM ET Florida -17.5 500
Florida -

Harvard - 7:00 PM ET Harvard -11.5 500
Fordham -

Wis.-Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan +2.5 500
Western Michigan -

Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET Seton Hall +3 500
Seton Hall -

Michigan St - 7:00 PM ET Michigan St +6.5 500
Wisconsin -

Louisville - 7:00 PM ET Louisville -8 500
St. John's -

Cornell - 8:00 PM ET Maryland -7.5 500
Maryland -

South Dakota - 8:00 PM ET Western Illinois -8.5 500
Western Illinois -

Oklahoma - 8:00 PM ET Missouri -13 500
Missouri -

Drake - 8:05 PM ET Creighton -13.5 500
Creighton -

Alabama - 9:00 PM ET Under 115 500
Georgia Tech -

Southern Methodist - 9:00 PM ET Mississippi -9 500
Mississippi -

Siena - 9:00 PM ET Siena +15 500
Iona - Over 150.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, January 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Charlotte - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland -4 500
Cleveland - Under 189 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta +9.5 500
Chicago - Over 183 500

Sacramento - 8:00 PM ET Sacramento +6.5 500
Memphis - Over 189.5 500

Portland - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -4.5 500
Oklahoma City - Under 195.5 500

Milwaukee - 9:00 PM ET Utah +1 500
Utah - Under 185.5 500

Houston - 10:30 PM ET Houston +7 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 191.5 500

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NHL

Tuesday, January 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Edmonton - 7:00 PM ET Buffalo -152 500
Buffalo - Over 5.5 500

Tampa Bay - 7:00 PM ET Toronto -123 500
Toronto - Over 5.5 500

Calgary - 7:00 PM ET Calgary +150 500
Washington - Over 5.5 500

NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET Carolina -118 500
Carolina - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET St. Louis -163 500
St. Louis - Under 5 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit -150 500
Dallas - Over 5.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Red Wings favored big in Dallas on Tuesday

DETROIT RED WINGS (24-13-1, 49 points)

at DALLAS STARS (21-15-1, 43 points)


Puck drops: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -160, Dallas +140, Total: 5.5

The Red Wings and Stars both sit on the precipice of first place in their respective divisions heading into a crucial Western Conference battle in Dallas on Tuesday night.

In the only meeting between these two clubs, the Detroit defeated Dallas handily, 5-2, on November 12 at Joe Louis Arena. The Red Wings trail the Blackhawks by three points, with a game in hand, for first place in the Central Division and figure to ride the superb goaltending of Jimmy Howard (23-9-1, 1.93 GAA, .929 SV Pct.) on Tuesday. Howard, who leads the NHL in wins by an impressive four games, rarely gets a night off—starting all but five games for Detroit this season. The Stars sit in third place in the jam-packed Pacific Division, but the top four teams are separated, incredibly, by just three points. A win Tuesday night would put them in a tie for first with Los Angeles, with two games in hand. Stars G Kari Lehtonen (14-5-1, 2.36 GAA, .924 SV Pct.) should make his third start since returning from a groin injury that sidelined him for a month. This game, once again, comes down to playing the percentages. The Stars are 12-6-1 at home, while the Red Wings are a mediocre 9-11-0 away from Motown. The Red Wings are the ultimate public team, and the odds reflect this, making DALLAS a nice value play with the +140 odds.

This three-star FoxSheets also favors the Stars.

DETROIT is 1-8 ATS (11.1%, -9.5 Units) in road games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances this season. The average score was DETROIT 1.8, OPPONENT 2.9 - (Rating = 3*).

The Red Wings’ long-term success is predicated upon a terrific blend of offense and defense—and this season is no different. Detroit averages an impressive 3.2 goals per game (4th in NHL) and allows just 2.2 goals per game (5th in league).

Their balanced offensive attack features six skaters with 20+ points, led by world-class C Pavel Datsyuk (12 G, 27 A). And at age 41, future Hall of Fame D Nicklas Lidstrom (8 G, 15 A) is still among the best in the game, and could very well be on pace for back-to-back Norris Trophies—which would tie Bobby Orr for the most all-time with eight.

The Stars find ways to win thanks to scoring depth throughout the lineup—with 12 different skaters in double-digits. LW Jamie Benn (9 G, 25 A) leads all scorers, along with linemates Loui Eriksson (13 G, 18 A) and Mike Ribeiro (6 G, 21 A).

The return of Lehtonen is hugely important for the Stars’ long-term success. The Finnish netminder picked up an impressive win over the Bruins on Saturday, turning aside 18 of 20 shots, and looks to be in great form.

[StarDust Bum]

Wisconsin seeks 9th straight home win vs. MSU

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (13-2)

at WISCONSIN BADGERS (12-3)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -6, Total: 117

Two ranked Big Ten teams will look to gain strong footing in the conference when No. 10 Michigan State heads to the Kohl Center to take on No. 18 Wisconsin.

The one thing the Badgers consistently bring to the table is an air-tight defense, leading the country by allowing only 46.2 PPG, the only team in the nation to keep its foes below 50 points per contest. Coming off Saturday’s loss to Iowa in which they surrendered a season-high 72 points, Wisconsin will be on a mission to avoid another conference defeat and regain its defensive form. The Badgers are 9-3 ATS this season haven’t lost to MSU at home since 2001, winning by an average of 14.6 PPG during the eight-game win streak. This includes an 82-56 pounding last year when UW made 59% FG, 11-of-17 threes (65%) and 25-of-26 free throws (96%). Play on WISCONSIN for their stifling guard defense and ability to hold onto the ball and limit Michigan State.

These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also like the Badgers to win and cover on Tuesday.

WISCONSIN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WISCONSIN 68.6, OPPONENT 57.3 - (Rating = 2*).

WISCONSIN is 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game since 1997. The average score was WISCONSIN 68.7, OPPONENT 59.5 - (Rating = 2*).

Michigan State (13-2) lost to ACC powerhouses North Carolina and Duke in its first two games of the year, but has won 13 straight since then, going 7-3 ATS. That includes an impressive win over No. 12 Indiana six days ago to tip off Big Ten play. The Spartans feast on the inside as the 11th-best rebounding team in the nation (41.1 RPG), led by 6-foot-7 forward Draymond Green (9.5 RPG). He also leads their offense (15.4 PPG) as a dangerous inside-outside threat, but the senior is helped by Keith Appling (12.3 PPG) and Brandon Wood (10.3 PPG). Michigan State is a good team, but even against the likes of the Tar Heels and Blue Devils, they have not seen a team that plays with the slow pace and defensive intensity of the Badgers. Play against.

Wisconsin (12-3) has been successful ATS this season despite poor play from their star guard, preseason All-American Jordan Taylor (38.5% FG). He has shown encouraging signs recently, however, with 15+ points in each of the past three games and just two total turnovers in those contests. Taylor lit up MSU for 51 points (52% FG), eight rebounds and nine assists in the two meetings last year. Wisconsin is less of a threat on the boards (35.9 RPG, 140th in D-I), but led on the perimeter by Taylor (12.7 PPG) and Ben Brust (10.7 PPG), their defense is relentless. On the interior, Jared Berggren is not the best rebounder (4.7 PPG) despite being 6-foot-10, but he adds 12.1 PPG to a slow-paced offense where any points are valuable. The Badgers average a mere 8.5 turnovers per game on offense, the lowest number in Division I by far. If they can control the tempo of this game – which they have been able to do most of the season – this game is theirs.

[StarDust Bum]

Lakers entertain Rockets Tuesday

HOUSTON ROCKETS (2-2)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (3-3)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -7, Total: 191

Houston begins a three-game road trip Tuesday when it visits a Lakers team with three straight home wins.

L.A. has been impressive at home this season (3-1 SU and ATS), especially on the defensive end where visitors are scoring just 82.5 PPG on 37% FG, and getting outrebounded by 7.8 RPG. Houston has been atrocious in two road games at Orlando and Memphis, getting outscored 109-94 and getting outshot 55% to 45% from the floor. Although Kobe Bryant has been struggling with his wrist injury, he destroyed the Rockets last season, pumping in 28.7 PPG and 7.3 APG in three meetings. And the spread isn’t too big for LOS ANGELES not to cover.

The FoxSheets provide a coaching trend favoring the Lakers to win big:

Mike Brown is 49-27 ATS (64.5%, +19.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders in all games he has coached since 1996. The average score was Brown 96.2, OPPONENT 89.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Since the Lakers beat Houston in a seven-game series in the 2009 playoffs, Houston has usually kept games close with L.A., going 5-2 ATS (2-5 SU) in the past seven meetings, not losing by double-digits in any of the defeats. After giving up 113 points on 56% FG at Memphis on Friday, the Rockets showed a greater commitment to the defensive end on New Year’s Eve against Atlanta. They ended the 2011 calendar year by holding the Hawks to 84 points on 44% shooting in an 11-point home win. The Rockets are once again led by SG Kevin Martin, who has averaged 24.3 PPG on 54% shooting in his past three games. PF Luis Scola is averaging 15.5 PPG on 54% FG and Kyle Lowry has been one of the league’s top point guards on both ends of the court. He has dished out an NBA-best 11.5 APG (2nd in NBA) and racked up 2.5 steals per game, which ties Ty Lawson and Chris Paul for the league lead.

Bryant is sixth in the NBA in scoring (24.0 PPG), but has shot terribly from the field (40%) and especially from downtown (19% 3-pt FG). C Andrew Bynum has given his team a big boost since his return from suspension, racking up 47 points (20-of-30 FG) and 29 rebounds in two games. PF Pau Gasol has been consistently good all year, with 15+ points in each game and shooting 53% or better in all five contests. Gasol has averaged 19.4 PPG and 8.8 RPG in his career versus Houston, including 21.0 PPG and 12.0 RPG against the Rockets last season.

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder try to regroup hosting Portland

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (3-1)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (5-1)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -5, Total: 197

The Blazers look to end their road woes Tuesday night when they visit an Oklahoma City team coming off its first loss of the year.

With their loss to the Clippers in L.A. on New Year’s Day, the Blazers have now dropped five in a row SU and ATS (plus 10 of 12 SU and nine of 12 ATS) on the road. But the Thunder didn’t look sharp in a road loss at Dallas on Monday night. OKC is already 0-2 ATS on the back end of consecutive games this season, and there’s just enough dysfunction with the Thunder for the Blazers to keep this one close. PORTLAND is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a few trends working in the Blazers favor, including:

PORTLAND is 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 97.9, OPPONENT 92.6 - (Rating = 2*).

This game could come down to point guard play. For Portland, they Blazers are trying to make the switch to an up-tempo attack to better fit new PG Raymond Felton’s skill set. Felton (13.0 PPG, 7.0 APG) is still working his way into shape after coming back from the lockout a bit overweight. He’s been inefficient, shooting 41.7% from the field, 15.4% from three and averaging 3.8 turnovers per game. But Portland has no other useable point guard on the roster.

The Blazers have the balanced offense to make up for it though. They’re built around the inside-outside scoring of PF LaMarcus Aldridge (20.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG), who has had some big performances against the Thunder. Last April against an OKC team that had added low-post bruiser Kendrick Perkins, Aldridge had 32 points on 14-for-26 shooting and eight rebounds.

Portland has had a different leading scorer in each of their first four games: Aldridge, F Gerald Wallace (14.8 PPG), SG Wesley Matthews (15.3 PPG) and sixth-man SG Jamal Crawford (15.8 PPG). A couple of worries: Wallace was shut out in the Clippers loss (30 min, 0-5 FG), and promising fourth-year SF Nicolas Batum (11.5 PPG on 39.5% shooting) has been inconsistent since being asked to come off the bench.

For the Thunder, they’re getting alternately brilliant and shaky performances from PG Russell Westbrook (16.3 PPG). A talented and hard-working star with a reputation for immaturity on the court, Westbrook came under fire for his shoot-first mentality during last year’s playoffs and has already had one on-the-court spat with franchise SF Kevin Durant (27.3 PPG) this season. On the year, Westbrook has as many turnovers (4.8 per game) as assists.

Portland has managed to frustrate Durant over the years. Since moving to Oklahoma City from Seattle, Durant is averaging 24.2 PPG in 12 games against the Blazers but shot just 39.9% from the field in those games. In his past two matchups with Portland last season, Durant shot just 14-for-42 (33.3%) from the field, including 6-of-23 (26.1%) from three-point land.

[StarDust Bum]

Bucks look for rare win in Utah Tuesday

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (2-2)

at UTAH JAZZ (2-3)


Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 184.5

Utah looks to retain its recent dominance over Milwaukee on Tuesday by beating the Bucks for a 10th straight time (SU and ATS) at home.

The Jazz have created this streak with some great teams, but they just don’t have the horses to consistently beat quality NBA clubs like Milwaukee. The Bucks should be playoff-bound this year with the additions of Stephen Jackson (18.5 PPG with Charlotte last season) and Mike Dunleavy (40.2%, 3-pt FG last year) to help out a subpar offense. But Milwaukee needs no help on the defensive end as Scott Skiles’ team finished third in the NBA in scoring defense (92.7 PPG) and sixth in FG Pct. defense (44.7% FG) last season. They have been even stingier so far this year with a league-leading 39.8% FG defense and 90.8 PPG allowed (7th in NBA). Also, the Bucks are 9-0 ATS in the past three seasons when playing teams shooting 43% or less from the floor. MILWAUKEE is the pick to finally win in Utah.

The FoxSheets have a another trend steering bettors away from the Jazz:

Play Against - Home underdogs (UTAH) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, playing on back-to-back days. (52-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +27.8 units. Rating = 2*).

The Bucks were in a great position to win at Denver on Monday, leading by six points heading into the fourth quarter. But they shot a woeful 5-of-22 from the floor in the final 12 minutes and lost 91-86. Brandon Jennings entered the contest with 22.7 PPG and 5.3 APG, but he finished with just 12 points, three assists and six turnovers in the loss to the Nuggets. Jennings also had problems with Utah’s defense last year, with six points, four assists and three turnovers in the last meeting against them in December 2010. Carlos Delfino has played well in his first two games back from a wrist injury, scoring 14.5 PPG on 50% FG, including 6-of-11 from downtown. Andrew Bogut is also having a strong season, averaging a double-double (14.3 PPG, 10.0 RPG) with 1.8 BPG. This offense will be much more potent once the two newcomers find their rhythm. Jackson is shooting 33% FG (21% threes) and Dunleavy is even worse at 32% FG, but Utah is allowing an NBA-high 48.7% FG while surrendering 101.2 PPG (2nd-most in league).

The Jazz have played much better at home (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) than on the road, where they were outscored by 19.0 PPG in three losses (SU and ATS). They opened their three-game homestand Monday with a 94-90 win over New Orleans as Al Jefferson (16.5 PPG) poured in 22 points on 11-of-18 shooting. It was Jefferson’s second straight 20-point effort since returning from an ankle injury. Devin Harris (12.2 PPG), Paul Millsap (11.8 PPG) and Josh Howard (11.4 PPG) are the other three Utah players averaging double-figure scoring. But the Jazz have had a difficult time shooting the basketball with team marks of 42% FG, and 28% three-pointers, both ranking in the lower third of the league. They don’t expect to get many good looks from Milwaukee’s blanketing defense allowing a combined 37.5% FG to its past two opponents.

[Spark]

Good Luck Bum