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Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, January 1
Home side won six of last seven Rutgers-South Florida games, as Scarlet Knights lost last three visits here, by 22-23-9 points. Rutgers lost by 15 at Miami in its only true road game Nov 15; but they just beat Florida at home in double OT, their fourth win in row. South Florida lost five of its last seven games, losing last two by combined total of five points to two pretty good teams, Southern Miss/UConn. Big East home favorites are 3-2-1 vs spread so far this young season.
Villanova won four of its last five games vs Marquette, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; home side won five of last six series games, with Wildcats losing two of last three visits here (losses by 13-7, with a 74-72 win last visit). Wildcats are 0-3 on road, losing by 11-16-14, and only the West Virginia loss was outside of Philly. Marquette was 10-0 but lost two of last three games, scoring 57-59 points- they fell behind Vanderbilt 31-8 in last game, lost by 17 at home.
Illinois State lost three of last four games against Southern Illinois, losing 57-54 to Salukis in MVC tourney in March; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points, with Redbirds losing 81-80/62-59 last two visits here. SIU lost its last four games, allowing 82.8 ppg; the three teams they've beaten are in bottom 15 in country. State upset No Iowa in MVC opener last game; they've split pair of road games, losing by 8 at Fresno State, winning by 5 at Morehead State- neither team is good.
9-3 Marshall is 3-3 vs top 100 teams, with #61 Ohio worst team they've lost to; Thundering Herd split pair with #33 Belmont-- six of their last eight games vs D-I teams were decided by six or less points. #99 Akron lost by point in OT to VCU Thursday; they're 1-3 against teams in top 100, losing by 21-1-24 points. Zips are 1-5 on road, with three of five losses by 3 or less points. Conference USA single digit home favorites are 7-10 vs spread; MAC road underdogs of 7+ points are 20-15-1.
Minnesota lost eight of last ten games with Michigan, but they split last four visits here, losing by 12-28 points. 12-2 Gophers lost conference opener in double OT at Illinois- it was also their first true road game all season- they're 3-2 vs top 100 teams, but two of three wins were against top teams in Summit League. 11-2 Wolverines are 2-2 vs top 100 teams but haven't played one in almost a month- they're #1 in country, making 59.3% on 2-point shots. Fifth straight home game for Michigan.
Syracuse won its last five games vs DePaul by average of 15 points, but that was inflated by LY's 107-59 thrashing in Carrier Dome; Orange won its last two visits here, 60-55/59-57. Syracuse hasn't played close game in almost a month- their last five wins are by average of 23 points. Big East home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread, 3-1 if home dogs. Orange won by 16 at NC State in their only true road game so far. Improved DePaul's only loss (9-3) by more than a basket was by 11 to Wisc-Milwaukee.
6-7 Penn is 0-6 vs teams in top 100, but 20-point loss to Pitt was their only loss by more than 8 points- they lost by 4 at UCLA, not that the Bruins are great this year, but Quakers are better than their record would suggest. Duke is 5-0 vs teams not in top 100, with four wins by 23+ points- they won last two games by 27-40 points- their ACC opener is still six days away. Ivy League road underdogs of 14+ points are 5-2-1, 3-0 when they get 20+; ACC home favorites of 20+ points are 7-5.
Cincinnati lost seven of last eight games vs Pittsburgh, losing last five by average of 8 points; they lost last four visits here by 20-6-16-12 points. Panthers have already lost at home to Long Beach State/Wagner; they've scored 54-59 points in losing last two games. Pitt is 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 75- they're #162 in defense, much worse than usual. Cincinnati is 10-3 after pulling out 56-55 win over Oklahoma Thursday, its first win against a top 100 team- they're 2-1 on road, losing by 23 at Xavier.
Penn State won six in row and 10 of last 11 games vs Northwestern, as Lions won last three visits here by 11-11-14 points, but if Wildcats are an NCAA-caliber team, they don't lose this game. PSU is 0-3 vs teams in top 100, losing by 38-18-18 points- they're 1-3 on road, winning only at Boston College, with losses by 18-7-18 points. Northwestern split last six games after 7-0 start, but their losses are all to top 50 teams, which Penn State isn't. Four of Wildcats' last five wins are by 15+ points.
Evansville is 2-11 in last 13 games vs Northern Iowa, losing last eight in this gym, by 13-18-3-11-13-7-19-12 points- home team won last five in series. Aces are 6-5, with only one win vs top 200 team; they're 1-2 on road, winning at Miami, losing by 4 at UIC and predictably losing badly at North Carolina. 10-3 Panthers got upset at Illinois State in its MVC opener, their second loss in row, scoring 59-61 points- they're 6-0 vs teams not in top 100, with three wins by 17+ points. .
Fairfield (-7) won 68-59 at Canisius Dec 4, holding Griffins to 39.2% on night while blocking five shots- they lost twice to Canisius LY, by 7-15 points- Griffs' win here first in last five visits to Fairfield (losses by 11-19-3-2 points. Canisius lost five of six road games this year, with three of the five by 19+ points. Teams are making 56.4% of 2-point shots vs Canisius- they've got #314 defense in country. Stags are 4-0 vs teams not in top 200, winning by 21-4-9-6 points.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Sunday, January 1
Home side won six of last seven Rutgers-South Florida games, as Scarlet Knights lost last three visits here, by 22-23-9 points. Rutgers lost by 15 at Miami in its only true road game Nov 15; but they just beat Florida at home in double OT, their fourth win in row. South Florida lost five of its last seven games, losing last two by combined total of five points to two pretty good teams, Southern Miss/UConn. Big East home favorites are 3-2-1 vs spread so far this young season.
Villanova won four of its last five games vs Marquette, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; home side won five of last six series games, with Wildcats losing two of last three visits here (losses by 13-7, with a 74-72 win last visit). Wildcats are 0-3 on road, losing by 11-16-14, and only the West Virginia loss was outside of Philly. Marquette was 10-0 but lost two of last three games, scoring 57-59 points- they fell behind Vanderbilt 31-8 in last game, lost by 17 at home.
Illinois State lost three of last four games against Southern Illinois, losing 57-54 to Salukis in MVC tourney in March; five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points, with Redbirds losing 81-80/62-59 last two visits here. SIU lost its last four games, allowing 82.8 ppg; the three teams they've beaten are in bottom 15 in country. State upset No Iowa in MVC opener last game; they've split pair of road games, losing by 8 at Fresno State, winning by 5 at Morehead State- neither team is good.
9-3 Marshall is 3-3 vs top 100 teams, with #61 Ohio worst team they've lost to; Thundering Herd split pair with #33 Belmont-- six of their last eight games vs D-I teams were decided by six or less points. #99 Akron lost by point in OT to VCU Thursday; they're 1-3 against teams in top 100, losing by 21-1-24 points. Zips are 1-5 on road, with three of five losses by 3 or less points. Conference USA single digit home favorites are 7-10 vs spread; MAC road underdogs of 7+ points are 20-15-1.
Minnesota lost eight of last ten games with Michigan, but they split last four visits here, losing by 12-28 points. 12-2 Gophers lost conference opener in double OT at Illinois- it was also their first true road game all season- they're 3-2 vs top 100 teams, but two of three wins were against top teams in Summit League. 11-2 Wolverines are 2-2 vs top 100 teams but haven't played one in almost a month- they're #1 in country, making 59.3% on 2-point shots. Fifth straight home game for Michigan.
Syracuse won its last five games vs DePaul by average of 15 points, but that was inflated by LY's 107-59 thrashing in Carrier Dome; Orange won its last two visits here, 60-55/59-57. Syracuse hasn't played close game in almost a month- their last five wins are by average of 23 points. Big East home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread, 3-1 if home dogs. Orange won by 16 at NC State in their only true road game so far. Improved DePaul's only loss (9-3) by more than a basket was by 11 to Wisc-Milwaukee.
6-7 Penn is 0-6 vs teams in top 100, but 20-point loss to Pitt was their only loss by more than 8 points- they lost by 4 at UCLA, not that the Bruins are great this year, but Quakers are better than their record would suggest. Duke is 5-0 vs teams not in top 100, with four wins by 23+ points- they won last two games by 27-40 points- their ACC opener is still six days away. Ivy League road underdogs of 14+ points are 5-2-1, 3-0 when they get 20+; ACC home favorites of 20+ points are 7-5.
Cincinnati lost seven of last eight games vs Pittsburgh, losing last five by average of 8 points; they lost last four visits here by 20-6-16-12 points. Panthers have already lost at home to Long Beach State/Wagner; they've scored 54-59 points in losing last two games. Pitt is 2-3 vs teams ranked in top 75- they're #162 in defense, much worse than usual. Cincinnati is 10-3 after pulling out 56-55 win over Oklahoma Thursday, its first win against a top 100 team- they're 2-1 on road, losing by 23 at Xavier.
Penn State won six in row and 10 of last 11 games vs Northwestern, as Lions won last three visits here by 11-11-14 points, but if Wildcats are an NCAA-caliber team, they don't lose this game. PSU is 0-3 vs teams in top 100, losing by 38-18-18 points- they're 1-3 on road, winning only at Boston College, with losses by 18-7-18 points. Northwestern split last six games after 7-0 start, but their losses are all to top 50 teams, which Penn State isn't. Four of Wildcats' last five wins are by 15+ points.
Evansville is 2-11 in last 13 games vs Northern Iowa, losing last eight in this gym, by 13-18-3-11-13-7-19-12 points- home team won last five in series. Aces are 6-5, with only one win vs top 200 team; they're 1-2 on road, winning at Miami, losing by 4 at UIC and predictably losing badly at North Carolina. 10-3 Panthers got upset at Illinois State in its MVC opener, their second loss in row, scoring 59-61 points- they're 6-0 vs teams not in top 100, with three wins by 17+ points. .
Fairfield (-7) won 68-59 at Canisius Dec 4, holding Griffins to 39.2% on night while blocking five shots- they lost twice to Canisius LY, by 7-15 points- Griffs' win here first in last five visits to Fairfield (losses by 11-19-3-2 points. Canisius lost five of six road games this year, with three of the five by 19+ points. Teams are making 56.4% of 2-point shots vs Canisius- they've got #314 defense in country. Stags are 4-0 vs teams not in top 200, winning by 21-4-9-6 points.
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