NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (1/1)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Sunday, January 1

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL odds: Week 17 opening line report

Tim Tebow threw two interceptions in his first nine starts this season. He doubled that in the 40-14 loss at Buffalo, and two of those were returned for touchdowns.

The anointed one said it was “probably safe” to call it the worst performance of his career, Pop Warner included.

"It's frustrating, but something my mom taught me a long time ago is give praise to the Lord and give your disappointments to the Lord,” Tebow said. “That's the No. 1 way I deal with it, because you know what? Tomorrow I get to celebrate my savior's birth. I don't know what the future holds, but I know who holds my future."

Tebow hasn’t lost faith. But what about bettors’ faith in him?

The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened Denver at -3.5 (even) and immediately took a professional play on the Chiefs that moved the line to -3 (-120). The pro didn’t care that the Broncos are at home and can clinch the AFC West with a win (or an Oakland loss).

“Most of the 3.5s are gone now and you’ll see -3 (-120), which was my first thought,” Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, told ***********. “The general public will probably bet Denver this week but the sharps won’t let it get out of hand. If any 3.5s pop up, they’ll scoop ‘em right up.

“Bookmakers aren’t going to go back and forth,” he continued. “They’ll just keep it at -3 (-120) or -3 (-130), let the average Joes lay it and not give the sharps 3.5.”

During Tebow’s 7-3 run as a starter, Kornegay said most of the action has been against Tebow.

“Fans out there certainly love Tebow but those aren’t the typical guys who bet,” he said. “The people who bet these games are football savvy and understand the ugliness of those Denver wins, how they got some fortunate breaks. They know he was 3 for 16 [at one point vs. New England].”

It’s a different story at MGM Mirage, where the line also opened at Denver -3.5 (even). Sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback said bettors mostly have backed the Broncos except for the New England game.

“Even though Denver flopped last week, the money’s been on the Broncos and I anticipate it’s going to be on them again this week,” Stoneback said. “They’re at home, going for a playoff spot. All the people who want to believe in Tebow, this is a big opportunity for him to quiet the naysayers again.”

The Chiefs-Broncos matchup holds lots of intrigue. While K.C. has been eliminated, players are fighting hard for beloved interim coach Romeo Crennel to get the permanent job.

Moreover, K.C. will start QB Kyle Orton, who was waived by Denver on Nov. 22 after starting the Broncos’ first five games. The Chiefs signed him and were rewarded when he led them to an upset of Green Bay.

Orton insists revenge is not a factor.

“I’m motivated quite a bit for every game,” he told the Kansas City Star. “You only get 16 games in this league, and that’s not a lot. We put a lot of effort and a lot of work in those 16 games, so you’d better take advantage of each one.”

Broncos executive vice president John Elway knows he’ll take heat if Orton beats Tebow to keep Denver out of the playoffs.

"We knew it was a possibility," Elway told the Denver Post. "So, here it is. We have to go out there and play well. It was best for the team, bottom line. We made that decision knowing this was a possibility. Now we have to do it."

Kansas City-Denver is one of several games with playoff implications. Due to Tony Romo’s hand injury, books held off on posting a line on the NFC East-deciding Cowboys-Giants game.

“We know he’s going to play,” Kornegay said. “But we’ve got to find out how healthy he is.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-13.5, 46), Buffalo at New England (-13, 51.5)

The Falcons can still claim the No. 5 seed by beating the Bucs and having Detroit lose at Green Bay. Atlanta will be motivated to do so. The No. 6 seed is staring at a likely trip to the Big Easy, where the Saints are 7-0 SU and ATS.

The Patriots can clinch homefield throughout the AFC playoffs by avenging their Week 3 loss in Buffalo. That 34-31 win snapped the Bills’ 15-game losing streak vs. New England.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Chicago at Minnesota (PK, 42), Tennessee at Houston (1, 40.5), New York Jets at Miami (-1, 41.5), Baltimore at Cincinnati (1.5, 38)

To make the playoffs, the Jets must beat the Dolphins and get losses from the Bengals and Titans, plus a loss from either the Raiders or Broncos.

Baltimore clinches the AFC North and a first-round bye with a win or a Steelers loss. The Ravens would earn homefield throughout the playoffs with a win and a Patriots loss.

Cincy clinches a wild card spot with a win or one of these scenarios: 1) Jets and Raiders losses. 2) Jets and Broncos losses.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Carolina at New Orleans (-10, 52), Buffalo at New England (-13, 51.5)

The Saints still have a slim shot at the No. 2 seed. They must beat the Panthers and hope the 49ers lose at the Rams.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Kansas City at Denver (-3 [-120], 37), Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-4.5, 37), Baltimore at Cincinnati (1.5, 38)

Indianapolis clinches the first pick in the 2012 draft with a loss.

The Ravens have posted a 5-2 O/U mark on the road, while the Bengals have a 5-2 O/U mark at home.

[Udog]

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 17 betting notes

We’ve finally reached Week 17 of the NFL’s regular season. The good news is the majority of Sunday’s contests have playoff implications of some sort. The bad news is there won’t be nearly as much NFL to fill our weekends after this week’s slate. To the NFL poolies cheat sheet we go:

Chicago at Minnesota (-1)

Why Bears cover: There is nothing on the line here. That said, Luke McCown looked better at QB against Green Bay than Caleb Hanie looked in previous four losses. Vikes have no Adrian Peterson until at least August, and possibly no Christian Ponder.

Why Vikings cover: Ponder could be out, but frankly, Joe Webb has looked good in his limited time this season and paced a win at Washington last week. The Bears are on skids of 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread.

Total (40.5): With both these offenses reeling from injuries, the under could be worth a look. However, Chicago’s on over runs of 6-2 overall, 9-2 in January, and 5-1 vs. losing teams. Minnesota’s on over streaks of 4-0 overall, 5-0 inside NFC North, and 4-0 at home.

Tennessee (-3) at Houston

Why Titans cover: They need a litany of things to happen to reach the playoffs, but first and foremost, they have to win. Houston, meanwhile, is locked into the No. 3 seed as the AFC South champ and will likely rest key players such as RB Arian Foster.

Why Texans cover: They are on several positive ATS stretches – 6-1-1 overall, 4-0-1 in division play, 5-1 vs. winning teams, and 4-0-1 in regular-season finals. Meanwhile the Titans are on ATS slides of 1-5 as road chalk, 1-4 in division action, and 3-7 coming off a SU win.

Total (40.5): Tennessee’s really helping under bettors. The Titans have the under on runs of 8-0-1 overall and 4-0 on highway. The total has gone low in six of Houston’s last seven at home. However, in this rivalry, the over is 8-3 in the last 11 clashes.

Buffalo at New England (-11.5)

Why Bills cover: They snapped a seven-game SU nosedive (1-6 ATS) by routing Denver last week and they were one of only three teams to beat New England all season. The Pats are in ATS ruts of 5-16 when laying more than 10 points and are 1-5-1 in January.

Why Patriots cover: Unlike in September, when they blew a 21-0 lead and lost 34-31 at Buffalo, this team will be focused with a shot at the No. 1 seed and home field throughout the AFC playoffs. And they’ll be looking for revenge too. The Pats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last dozen in Week 17. The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall.

Total (51): Both these teams are on bundle of over streaks and New England will surely be looking to score a lot in an effort to just bury its division rival. But this rivalry has tended to produce unders, with total going low 18 of the last 25 meetings.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-3.5)

Why Colts cover: This squad is steamrolling toward the offseason, with two straight wins and covers after dropping its first 13 games of the season SU. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Colts-Jags games.

Why Jaguars cover: Jacksonville has the only real game-breaker in this contest, with NFL’s leading rusher in Maurice Jones-Drew. Jags work well when laying points, at 6-1 ATS last seven in that role and 5-1 ATS in the last six as a home chalk.

Total (37): A pretty low number, but these two offenses warrant that with Indy 28th at 15.3 ppg and Jacksonville 29th at 14.9 ppg. The under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven overall and 5-0 in their last five division outings. In this AFC South rivalry the over is 6-2 in the last eight overall and 5-1 in the last six in Jacksonville, but Peyton Manning played in all but one of those games.

San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis

Why 49ers cover: With the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye on the line, San Fran should bring its “A” game to the Edward Jones Dome. The Niners are also the best team in the NFL against the spread, going 12-2-1 ATS this year, while Rams are the polar opposite at 2-12-1 ATS. The Rams can’t score, averaging league-worst 11.1 ppg.

Why Rams cover: There is almost nothing – other than perhaps RB Steven Jackson – that this team can hang its horns on. However, the home squad in this NFC West rivalry is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Total (35.5): The Niners have the league’s stingiest scoring defense, yielding just 13.5 ppg, and San Fran has hit under in five of last six games. The under is also 9-3 in Rams’ last 12, and in this rivalry, the total has gone low in eight of last 11 overall and four of last five in Gateway City.

Detroit (-3.5) at Green Bay

Why Lions cover: Take a look at that number. It’s clear that the Packers – who have already clinched home field throughout NFC playoffs – aren’t expected to play their big guns much. Detroit, meanwhile, would like to remain as the No. 5 seed and dodge a potential first-round playoff date in New Orleans. The Lions are 11-3-2 ATS in the last 16 coming off a SU win.

Why Packers cover: Even with Matt Flynn at QB, this team has plenty of weapons, and the Packers thrive at Lambeau – 16-5-1 ATS in the last 21 overall.

Total (46.5): Over is 8-1-1 in Detroit’s last 10 roadies, has hit in four straight home games and seven of nine overall for Green Bay. That said, total has gone low in four of the last five Lions-Packers contests.

Carolina at New Orleans (-9)

Why Panthers cover: They’re catching 9 points against a Saints team that is still in the running for No. 2 seed, but surely doesn’t want to see any key players (read: Drew Brees) get hurt before the playoffs. And Carolina has all the positive pointspread trends in this rivalry: 6-1 in the last seven overall and 10-1 in the last 11 trips to the Big Easy with the road team going 18-4 ATS in the last 22 Panthers-Saints clashes.

Why Saints cover: There’s that possible No. 2 seed, so they’ve got reason to put up another strong performance. They’ve won and cashed seven in a row, including five as chalks of 6.5 or more. As an underdog, Carolina’s on ATS purges of 5-12 overall and 2-6 on the highway.

Total (55): These are two of the league’s top offenses – New Orleans averages 33.5 ppg (second) and Carolina 25.9 ppg (fifth) – so the over could surely be in play, even at this high a price. These teams played an October shootout won 30-27 by the Saints, though that came after four straight unders in this rivalry.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (-1.5)

Why Jets cover: They still have very slim playoff hopes, none of which allow them to lose Sunday, so it’s all on the line. The Jets have cashed in seven of the last eight trips to South Beach and nine of the last 12 January starts.

Why Dolphins cover: This team has been far better the second half of this season and had New England in a 17-0 hole last week before succumbing on the road. The Fish still cashed that game, as they have in eight of their last nine and they are on a 6-0 ATS run vs. winning teams.

Total (41): Mixed bag here, with the under at 10-3-1 in Miami’s last 14 games. New York is on over surges of 24-9 overall, 14-3-1 as a pup and 9-3 in AFC East play.

Washington at Philadelphia (-9)

Why Redskins cover: As bad as they’ve been at times this season, they have cashed in four of the last six overall and are on nice 6-1 spread-covering run in the NFC East. They’ve also cashed in the last four in Philly. The Eagles, meanwhile, are in ATS dives of 2-8 at the Linc and 4-11 when laying points.

Why Eagles cover: This preseason Super Bowl pick has nothing but pride left to play for, but there’s still a lot of talent on this team. They’ve won and cashed the last three by double digits, including wins over playoff contenders Dallas and the Giants, along with a surging Miami squad.

Total (46.5): The over is on 5-1 stretch for the ‘Skins, but the under has hit in Philly’s last six division tilts and six of Washington’s last eight roadies.

Seattle at Arizona (-3)

Why Seahawks cover: Seattle has been very good at books (9-3-1 ATS in the last 13) and on field, nearly climbing back into playoff contention before losing a hard-fought game to San Francisco last week. The Seahawks have cashed six of the last eight, and covered all three roadies in that stretch (2-1 SU).

Why Cardinals cover: They have been pretty hot lately, too. Prior to last week’s loss at Cincinnati, the Cardinals had won six of seven SU, covering five times. The home team 8-3 ATS in the last 11 in this rivalry and the Cards have cashed four of their last five home games vs. the Seahawks.

Total (41): In this NFC West rivalry, the total has gone high in the last seven meetings in Phoenix.

San Diego at Oakland (-3)

Why Chargers cover: Oakland has a couple paths that could lead to playoffs and the Chargers (7-2 ATS last nine in Oakland) would love to spoil that for a hated AFC West rival. Revenge is an option, too. The Bolts have lost three in a row SU and five in a row ATS in this rivalry, including a 24-17 setback on their home field in November.

Why Raiders cover: They have to win to salvage any playoff hope and they’ve been a covering machine in AFC West play at 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall.

Total (49): The over is 8-2-1 in San Diego’s last 11 on the highway and 8-3 in Oakland’s last 11 at home.

Kansas City at Denver (-3.5)

Why Chiefs cover: What an ultimate revenge spot for QB Kyle Orton, who was benched by Denver in October in favor of Tim Tebow, then granted a release to end up in Kansas City. Now he can ruin the Broncos’ playoff hopes. The Chiefs are a solid pup at 8-2 ATS in the last 10, while the Broncos are 14-36-1 in the last 51 when laying points.

Why Broncos cover: What a soapbox spot for Tim Tebow, who can carry Denver to the postseason with a victory. The Broncs have cashed in four of the last five in this rivalry and the Chiefs are on 3-7 ATS slides in Denver and against AFC West foes.

Total (37): The over has cashed in 14 of the last 20 Chiefs-Broncos clashes. Denver’s on over sprees of 25-11 overall, 11-2 as chalk, and 10-3 at Mile High. But the Chiefs are second-last in league scoring (13.7 ppg) and sport under streaks of 16-5 overall and 8-0 in AFC West play.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-12)

Why Buccaneers cover: Well, they’ve certainly got no pressure on them, having lost nine in a row SU (1-8 ATS) to completely soil their season. Bucs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine vs. Atlanta.

Why Falcons cover: They’re a much better team and they’d like to go into postseason with some momentum after getting crushed last week at New Orleans. Tampa’s nine-game nosedive has included six double-digit defeats, with last four losses of at least 16 points. Atlanta’s a solid bounceback bet, with ATS streaks of 19-7 off a SU loss and 19-8-1 off a non-cover.

Total (47): The under is 5-1 in the Falcons’ last six at home.

Baltimore (-1.5) at Cincinnati

Why Ravens cover: With Pittsburgh playing the Browns at the same time, Baltimore knows it cannot mess around in this game if it hopes to win the AFC North and secure a first-round playoff bye. The Bengals are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven. The Ravens often play to level of competition, which is good in this case, as they are 4-0-1 ATS last five vs. winning teams.

Why Bengals cover: They want to join the playoff party and they need not only a cover, but an outright win to be certain of advancing. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last three and are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 overall. Cincy is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 as a home pup and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 after a SU win. And in this rivalry, the Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six in Cincy.

Total (38): A pair of top-10 defenses are in this showdown, with Ravens allowing just 16.7 ppg (third) and Bengals yielding 19.9 ppg (ninth). Total has gone low in four of the last five in this AFC North rivalry, though Nov. 20 meeting in Baltimore – a 31-24 Ravens win – soared over posted number of 40.5.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Why Steelers cover: If I may repeat myself, with Baltimore playing the Bengals at the same time, Pittsburgh knows it cannot mess around in this game if it hopes to win the AFC North and secure a first-round playoff bye. The Steelers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 January games. The muddling Browns are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 at home.

Why Browns cover: They’re on a nice 5-1 pointspread run right now and with Pittsburgh’s QB situation in flux due to Ben Roethlisberger’s gimpy ankle, Cleveland might be thinking about an outright victory. Pittsburgh’s 1-7 ATS in its last eight after a cover and 2-6 ATS in the last eight on the highway.

Total: Pittsburgh defense ranks No. 2 in league, allowing meager 14.5 ppg, and Cleveland’s offense produces just 13.9 ppg (30th), so under looks intriguing here. The total has gone low in five straight for the Steelers and is on mini-runs for Browns of 3-0-1 overall and 4-0 at home.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-3)

Why Cowboys cover: It’s as simple as it gets - win and you’re in the playoffs, lose and you’re making tee times. The Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six at home and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five when giving points. The Cowboys are a strong underdog of late, at 7-1 ATS last eight when catching points and 5-1 ATS in the last six as road pups.

Why Giants cover: Ditto for the motivation, as they win division title with a victory and send their archrival packing. The G-Men have cashed in four of the last five in this rivalry, and Dallas is on pointspread purges of 1-5 overall and 0-5 inside the NFC East.

Total (46.5): Over has been the play in five straight Cowboys-Giants affairs and eight of last 10 in this rivalry. And during the current five-game over run, the minimum total points has been 53, with three games reaching at least 64 points. That includes New York’s 37-34 comeback win on Dec. 11 in Dallas.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Dallas at NY Giants
The Cowboys look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games as an underdog. Dallas is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, JANUARY 1

Game 301-302: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.431; Philadelphia 135.425
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over

Game 303-304: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 114.881; Atlanta 137.964
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 23; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 11; 46
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11); Under

Game 305-306: San Francisco at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.980; St. Louis 120.305
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 18 1/2; 33
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-10 1/2); Under

Game 307-308: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.166; Minnesota 126.866
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Over

Game 309-310: Detroit at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 138.183; Green Bay 133.734
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3 1/2); Under

Game 311-312: Dallas at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.912; NY Giants 128.643
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 313-314: Carolina at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 136.770; New Orleans 142.647
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6; 57
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9); Over

Game 315-316: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.875; Houston 127.502
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3); Under

Game 317-318: Baltimore at Cincinnati (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.469; Cincinnati 132.311
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 39
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-1); Under

Game 319-320: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.191; Cleveland 129.868
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; No Line
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+7 1/2); N/A

Game 321-322: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.907; Jacksonville 129.002
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 8; 42
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3 1/2); Over

Game 323-324: NY Jets at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.794; Miami 133.935
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+2 1/2); Under

Game 325-326: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 126.508; New England 142.456
Dunkel Line: New England by 16; 46
Vegas Line: New England by 10; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-10); Under

Game 327-328: San Diego at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.420; Oakland 131.823
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Oakland by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Over

Game 329-330: Kansas City at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.748; Denver 133.969
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7; 35
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); Under

Game 331-332: Seattle at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 131.988; Arizona 132.093
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

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Sunday, January 1

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WASHINGTON (5 - 10) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 8) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 147-107 ATS (+29.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 11) at ATLANTA (9 - 6) - 1/1/2012, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 3) at ST LOUIS (2 - 13) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-67 ATS (-32.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (7 - 8) at MINNESOTA (3 - 12) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 10-27 ATS (-19.7 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (10 - 5) at GREEN BAY (14 - 1) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (8 - 7) at NY GIANTS (8 - 7) - 1/1/2012, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (6 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (12 - 3) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in dome games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-45 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (8 - 7) at HOUSTON (10 - 5) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (11 - 4) at CINCINNATI (9 - 6) - 1/1/2012, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 49-73 ATS (-31.3 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (11 - 4) at CLEVELAND (4 - 11) - 1/1/2012, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 13) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 11) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (8 - 7) at MIAMI (5 - 10) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (6 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) - 1/1/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 143-108 ATS (+24.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (7 - 8) at OAKLAND (8 - 7) - 1/1/2012, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
OAKLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 35-63 ATS (-34.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 27-59 ATS (-37.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-43 ATS (-23.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 5-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (6 - 9) at DENVER (8 - 7) - 1/1/2012, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 39-67 ATS (-34.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 4-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (7 - 8) at ARIZONA (7 - 8) - 1/1/2012, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 50-78 ATS (-35.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, January 1

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 6-1 Under after allowing 6+ yards/play last game
PHILADELPHIA: 0-4 ATS as home favorite of 7.5 to 14 pts

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
TAMPA BAY: 2-11 ATS off road loss
ATLANTA: 10-2 ATS vs. team w/ losing record

SAN FRANCISCO at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 6-0 ATS off road game
ST LOUIS: 2-12-1 ATS in all games

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
CHICAGO: 10-27 ATS Away L4 wks of reg season
MINNESOTA: 0-6 ATS revenging road loss

DETROIT at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 0-3 ATS off double digit win
GREEN BAY: 17-7 ATS 2nd half of season

DALLAS at NY GIANTS, 8:30 PM ET (TC)
DALLAS: 9-1 ATS Away off Double Digit loss
NY GIANTS: 4-13 ATS at home after 1st month of season

CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 25-10 ATS revenging loss where opp scored 28+
NEW ORLEANS: n/a

TENNESSEE at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 0-7 ATS Away revenging home loss by 14+
HOUSTON: 32-16 ATS off BB ATS losses

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
BALTIMORE: 33-17 ATS Away off ATS loss
CINCINNATI: 7-18 ATS at home revenging loss where opp scored 28+

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
PITTSBURGH: 2-8 ATS off win by 14+
CLEVELAND: 6-0 ATS off 4+ losses

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 8-0 Over Away off an Under
JACKSONVILLE: 22-9 Over off division road loss

NY JETS at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
NY JETS: 9-0 Over off an Under
MIAMI: 21-9 ATS revenging loss of 14+ points

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 8-2 Over as underdog
NEW ENGLAND: 11-1 Over vs. division

SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 0-5 ATS vs. Oakland
OAKLAND: 9-2 ATS vs. division

KANSAS CITY at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 8-1 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
DENVER: 2-10 ATS off road loss

SEATTLE at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 7-0 ATS off home game
ARIZONA: 55-33 Over in dome games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Redskins (5-10) @ Eagles (7-8)— Philly is eliminated from playoffs; they stayed focused for easy win in Dallas last week, their third straight win (by 16-26-13 points), but they’re just 2-5 at home this year (2-4 as home favorites)- how much do they care about finishing 8-8, on 4-game roll? Redskins lost eight of last ten games; they’re 3-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 2-13-23-11 points- they won last two road games. Home team lost eight of last ten series games; Redskins won four of last six visits here, but lost 20-13 at Philly 20-13 (+1) in first meeting, getting outrushed 192-42, game that snapped Philly’ 4-game skid. Series has been swept seven of last nine years. Five of last six Washington games went over the total.

Buccaneers (4-11) @ Falcons (9-6)— If Lions lose at Lambeau, Falcons move up to #5 seed with win and avoid Saints in first round. Atlanta won five of last six series games, with four of five wins by 6 or less points; they lost 16-13 at Tampa (+1.5) in Week 3, getting outrushed 115-30. Would expect more running from Falcons, who ran ball only 15 times with 51 dropbacks in first meeting- they had only one TD in four visits to red zone. Tampa lost last three visits here, by 3-3-6 points, but ’11 Bucs have fallen apart, losing last nine games (0-5 vs spread last five)- they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-6-11-9-6-27-32 points. Atlanta is 5-2 at home, 2-0-2 as home favorite, winning at by 4-14-6-10-27 points, losing only to Packers/Saints. Three of Buccaneers’ last four games went over total.

49ers (12-3) @ Rams (2-13)— San Francisco needs win here to secure bye in playoffs. 49ers’ +25 turnover ratio is amazing; they’re 5-2 on road, winning by 5-1-6-8-2 points; they’re 10-3 in last thirteen series games, with average total in last nine, 35.4; they’ve won three of last five visits here, winning by 1-1-22 points. SF blanked Rams 26-0 (-13) in first meeting four weeks ago, outrushing St Louis 144-31, outgaining them 389-157. End of line for another dismal Rams’ season (lost last six games (0-5-1 vs spread), 1-3-1 as home dog); if they lose they can still get #1 pick. Under is 8-1-1 in last ten 49er games, 6-2 in last eight St Louis games. Clemens has done his best as #3 QB coming in off street, but he is in a hopeless situation against this hungry, opportunistic defense.

Bears (7-8) @ Vikings (3-12)— McCown was marked improvement at QB for Bears last week, but they've still lost five games in row (0-4 vs spread the last four). Vikings snapped 6-game skid with win at Washington, but lost Peterson/ Ponder to injury; they’re 1-6 at home, losing their last four by 6-6-3-22 points, allowing 34.4 ppg. Minnesota is 6-4-1 as an underdog, 2-2 at home. Chicago won last four series games, crushing Vikings 39-10 (-3) in Week 6, outrushing them 119-53 and running kick back for TD; home side won seven of last eight series games, with series split in six of last nine years- Bears lost seven of last nine visits to Metrodome. Average total in last six series games is 58.8, 49.3 in last three visits here. Chance for Vikings' mobile QB Webb to audition for #1 job next year

Lions (10-5) @ Packers (14-1)— Doubt Rodgers plays much in this game and Lions have playoff game next week, so is the under worth a look, as both clubs look to get this over with quick? Detroit is giddy after clinching first playoff berth in dozen years; they’re on road in playoffs next week, but also haven’t won in Lambeau since ’91, with four of last five losses here by 8+ points- will they try to win here? Will Packers try to win? Green Bay is 11-1 in last dozen series games, winning 27-15 (-6) on Thanksgiving, despite being outrushed 136-53, outgained by 60 yards. Lions wontheir last three games, scoring 34-28-38 points, with 10 TDs on last 30 drives. Six of Detroit’s seven road games went over the total.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (12-3)— Brees already has passing record; should the 49ers get out to big lead in their game, Saints could pull starters as they'll have home playoff game next week. Panthers won four of last five games, with all four wins by 8+ points; they’re 5-4 as underdog, 3-3 on road, winning last three away games after losing first four by 7-5-14-14 points. Carolina split its four games in domes. Saints won four of last five series games, winning first meeting 30-27 (-6.5) in Week 5, despite being outrushed 162-101; NO converted 12-17 on 3rd down, passed for 343 yards. Carolina lost last two visits here, 30-20/16-14; three of their last four visits here were decided by 3 or less points. Five of last six Carolina games went over the total.

Titans (8-7) @ Texans (10-5)— Houston is locked into AFC #3 seed, so this game is meaningless as Texans prep for first playoff game next week; they crushed Tennessee 41-7 (+2.5) in Week 7, their 4th win in last 13 series games, outrushing Titans 222-53, outgaining them 518-148, averaging 12.8 ypa, but that was with Schaub at QB. Houston lost last two games, scored just 16.5 ppg in Yates’ four starts; they’re 5-2 SU at home, 2-2 vs spread as underdog this year. Tennessee is 3-4 on road, losing at Indy in only game as road favorite (2-5 overall as favorite). Titans won six of last nine visits to their old city, with average total in last three, 27.3. Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Titan games, 4-1 in last five Texan tilts.

Ravens (11-4) @ Bengals (9-6)— Baltimore needs win to clinch division title and 1st-round bye; they’ve lost five of last six visits here, losing 17-7/15-10 in last two visits. Bengals need win to clinch playoff berth- they lost 31-24 (+7) at Baltimore six weeks ago, outgaining Ravens by 110 yards but throwing three picks, setting up two Baltimore TD drives of less than 40 yards. Cincy is 0-2-1 in last three games as underdog after covering first five tries this year; they’re 4-3 at home, with last three home games decided by total of 11 points. Ravens are just 3-4 on road, 2-4 as road favorite- they’ve won five of last six games overall, with three of last four wins by 10+ points. Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under total.

Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (4-11)— If Ravens won their game, Steelers have playoff game next week, would likely hold Big Ben out of this 4:15 start; if Ravens lose, this game is for home playoff game, so he would be more likely to play. Cleveland lost last five games but covered four of last six; five of their last seven games were decided by 6 or less points- they covered four of last five as a dog. Pitt won 16 of last 17 series games, going 10-1 here, with four of last six wins by 14+ points- they beat Browns 14-3 (-14) in Week 14 Thursday nighter despite two red zone turnovers, outrushing Cleveland 147-98, while averaging 10.8 ypa. Under is 8-2-1 in last 11 Cleveland games, 5-0-1 in Steelers’ last six.

Colts (2-13) @ Jaguars (4-11)— If Indy loses, they get #1 pick in draft and have big decision to make, but they’ve won last two games after 0-13 start to put that option in question, allowing two TDs on 25 drives. Colts are 3-4 as road underdog but covered last two away games- they’ve lost road games by 27-7-10-55-17-7-14 points. Jaguars are 1-3 as favorites this year, 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 2-5-27 points- they won first meeting 17-3 at Indy, outrushing Colts 141-84, holding Painter to 3.8 ypa, but Orlovsky has been big step up at QB for Indy, and Jax is just 1-5 since that win. Over is 3-0-1 in Jaguars’ last four games, 2-6 in Indy’s last eight. Indianapolis covered its last four games overall.

Jets (8-7) @ Dolphins (5-10)— How will Jets react to losing local showdown with Giants last week, with playoff berth likely on line? Gang Green is 0-6 when they score 21 or less points. Miami covered seven of last eight games, winning three of last four at home, allowing 14.3 ppg- they’re 5-3 in last eight games after 0-7 start, as Moore has proven to be competent QB; Dolphins are 3-1 as favorite this year- all five of their wins are by 7+ points. Visitors won six of last eight series games, but Fish (+7) lost 24-6 at Swamp in Week 6, converting just 2-13 on 3rd down, and kicking two FGs on three red zone drives. Jets won four of last five visits here, with average total in last four, 49.8. Three of last four Miami games, four of last five Jet games went over total.

Bills (6-9) @ Patriots (12-3)— Pats rallied from down 17-0 at half to win last week and stay atop AFC; they need win here to clinch home field thru AFC playoffs. Buffalo (+7.5) upset New England 34-31 in Week 3, picking Brady off four times while ending 15-game series skid; they’ve lost last 10 visits here (25-24/38-30 last two years) with four of last six losses here by 8 or less points. Bills snapped 7-game skid by beating Denver last week; they’re 2-3-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4-27 points. Patriots allowed 20+ points in last five games; they’re 3-4 as home favorite, covering one of last five, with home wins by 14-9-4-31-73 points. Six of last even New England games went over the total.

Chargers (7-8) @ Raiders (8-7)— San Diego won three of last four games but is 2-5 on road, laying major egg in Detroit last week with season on line; their only road wins are over Orton-led Broncos and dismal Jaguars but they can KO Raiders from playoffs with win here. Oakland can make playoffs with win and if Denver loses at home to Orton-led Chiefs. Raiders (+7) won 34-27 at San Diego in Week 10, third straight series win, running ball for 191 yards while averaging 13.5 ypa- this series has been swept the last seven years, as San Diego won six of last seven visits here. Oakland lost three of last four games, is 3-4 at home—five of their last six games went over the total, as have six of seven Charger road games.

Chiefs (6-9) @ Broncos (8-7)— Denver clinches unlikely division title with win here, but QB they cut in November (Orton) starts against them; Broncos (+3) won 17-10 at Arrowhead in Week 10, running ball for 244 yards while Tebow was just 2-8 passing the whole day, as visitor won for just 4th time in last 18 series games. Chiefs lost nine of last 10 visits here, with eight losses by 7+ points- average total in their last four visits here is 58.8. Broncos allowed 41-40 points in losing last two games; they’re 3-4 at home, with wins by 2-4-3 points- they’re 1-3 as a favorite this year, 0-3 at home. Nine of Chiefs’ last ten games stayed under total; three of last four Denver game went over. No scoreboard watching here; Broncos win and they’re in.

Seahawks (7-8) @ Cardinals (7-8)— Both teams were eliminated with streak-ending losses last week; Seattle is 5-2 in last seven games, covering six of last eight- they’re 9-1-1 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog, winning last two away games, at St Louis/Chicago. Arizona won six of last eight games, winning last four home games- they were down 23-0 in 4th quarter at Cincy last week but wide open WR fell down on last play, or they would’ve tied game in last minute. Cardinals are 2-2 as favorite this year- they lost 13-10 (-3) at Seattle in Week 3, second of six straight Arizona losses. Four of last five Seattle games went over; under is 5-1-2 in last eight Arizona games. No playoff berths on line here, just a divisional rivalry.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Giants (8-7)—NFC East title on line here in game moved to primetime for NBC; Giants (+3.5) won wild 37-34 game in JerryWorld three weeks ago, rallying back late from down 10, their sixth win in last eight series games, with average total in last five meetings, 63.8. Season series was split four of last six years; Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits here. Manning passed for 400 yards (8.5 ypa) in earlier game, but Romo threw for 9.8 ypa in wild affair. Dallas is 3-4 on road, with three of seven games going into OT- they started season here with 27-24 loss to Jets. Pokes are 2-2 as underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-27-6 points. Giants are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as favorite. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under the total.

[Udog]

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Sunday, January 1

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 5-13-2 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Philadelphia's last 16 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-17-2 ATS in its last 24 games when playing at home against San Francisco
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 16 of the NY Jets last 19 games on the road
Miami is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Chicago
Minnesota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Buffalo's last 25 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games when playing New England
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games when playing Seattle

4:15 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Kansas City

4:15 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
Oakland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:15 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 11 games
Cleveland is 2-5-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Dallas


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Total Bias: Week 17's best over/under bets
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When it comes to quarterbacks, Kyle Orton is the NFL’s ugly duckling.

He never had a cannon arm and never read defenses very well. He never had blazing speed to escape pressure and has been tagged as injury prone throughout his career.

Years ago in Chicago, he was known more for his facial hair and binge drinking than he was for his play on the field, which was mostly understandable considering he was the polar opposite of Sexy Rexy (more on that dolt later).

Then the real fun started when Orton signed with Denver. He threw 41 touchdowns to 21 interceptions in his first two years as a Bronco but, just like in Chicago, rarely had full support from the team. Orton was dumped on after every loss and overlooked after nearly every win.

Then he suffered a late-season injury against the Kansas City Chiefs last season, which opened the door for Tim Tebow.

Tebow started the last three games of the year, beginning Tebow Time as we now know it. With the entire nation whipped into a Tebowmania frenzy, the Broncos finally succumbed to the pressure and gave Orton the boot.

Of course, he lands in Kansas City and helps the Chiefs end Green Bay’s perfect season. Now ol’ Neckbeard has an opportunity to derail Denver’s playoff hopes.

It’s funny how so many things come full-circle in the world of football, isn’t it?

Rookies battle with veterans for playing time only to become those very veterans trying to fend off the next young stud on the depth chart.

Kids learn the game from grizzled coaches who can’t get away from the game no matter how hard they try only to become those very coaches, grooming the next batch of budding superstars.

Every year around this time, NFL bettors feel a sense of déjà vu as well.

This August, we agonized over how much teams would play their starters, which teams actually cared about winning the game, and what sort of roster moves were just around the corner from every game.

And now, we’re back to a similar situation in the final week of the regular season.

There aren’t many games on the board that will tempt me enough to dip into the wild world of Week 17, but when opportunities present themselves, you don’t want to miss out.

This week’s a lot like Orton when you think about it – pretty ugly at first glance but if you pick your spots, it might just turn out all right.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 37)

With the half-point hook available at a bunch of betting shops as of Thursday, I think you have to give the Chiefs a long look here.

Orton knows the defense he’ll be up against and the boys love playing for Romeo Crennel, who will draw up a good scheme to defend against Tebow’s nonsense.

In general, teams are slowly figuring out how to slow down Tebow and Orton just doesn’t have that much in the cupboard to work with.

Pick: Under


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3, 46)

Each of the last five meetings between these teams have played over the total and we have no reason to think this matchup will be any different.

Tony Romo’s injured hand is a bit of a concern, especially with cold temperatures in the forecast, but Romo says he’ll play and doesn’t think he’ll have to wear the glove that he’s used in practice this week.

You’d have to chop the dang hand off to keep Romo off the field in what might be one of the biggest games of his career. He and Eli are going to get into another shootout.

Pick: Over


Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 46.5)

“My confidence level is at an all-time high. I just need to eliminate a couple of bad plays here and there that deter a great performance."

Sound familiar? That was Rex Grossman talking to reporters this week. The same Rex Grossman who has thrown 19 interceptions this season, tying him for most in the league despite the fact he’s played in only 13 games.

He doesn’t have many weapons to work with here with rookie running back Roy Helu banged up and tight end Fred Davis suspended. Outside of Santana Moss, he might as well be throwing at stop signs this week.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia is finally pulling together. The Eagles have held their last three opponents to just 36 combined points and lead the league with 49 sacks.

Pick: Under

Last week’s record: 1-2
Season record to date: 27-22



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[Udog]

NFL

Week 17

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NFL betting weather report: Week 17
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Find out how weather will impact your wagers in Week 17 of the NFL season:

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (+3.5, 43.5)

Snow is in the forecast for the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. There’s a 29 percent chance of the white stuff, with game-time temperatures dipping into the mid 20s and winds reaching speeds of up 25 mph, blowing WNW.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 45.5)

Rain could dampen the season finale for these NFC East clubs. There is a 19 percent chance of showers beginning in the second quarter. Winds, blowing at 10 mph, will chill temperatures into the high 40s.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+1, 39.5)

Winds will reach speeds of up 20 mph, blowing west across Paul Brown Stadium. Game-time temperatures will fall into the mid 30s.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+7, 35)

Snow is in the forecast for Cleveland, with a 62 percent chance of precipitation. Winds will blow WSW at speeds of up to 25 mph and game-time temperatures will fall into the low 30s.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3. 47.5)

There is a 22 percent chance of showers for Sunday night’s game at MetLife Stadium. Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid 40s.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, January 1

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Giants
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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-3, 46)

THE STORY: The scenario could not be more straightforward for the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, who will meet in a winner-take-all, loser-go-home matchup on Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will decide the NFC East title and the No. 4 seed in the postseason – an equation simple enough that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones may not feel compelled to run down to the sideline and explain it to his head coach. When the teams met three weeks ago in Dallas, Eli Manning threw a pair of touchdown passes in the final 3:14 to rally the Giants to a stunning 37-34 victory. The Cowboys enter the game with injury concerns to QB Tony Romo (hand) and RB Felix Jones (hamstring).

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Giants opened at -3 and have remained steady at a field goal for the most part. A few 2.5 lines popped up briefly before action bet them back to the original spread. The total has climbed from 46 to 47 points.

WEATHER: The forecast for MetLife Stadium is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 30s. There will be a light wind, blowiing WNW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-7, 5-9-1 ATS): Romo insists he will be ready to play despite a bruised right hand sustained from banging it on a defender’s helmet last week. He was limited in practice again Thursday and had a protective wrap on the hand. Romo was sensational in the first meeting with New York, throwing for 321 yards and fourth touchdowns. Jones, who came off the bench to run for 106 yards against the Giants, was also limited Thursday. The Cowboys are tied for seventh in the league in sacks, but didn’t get to Manning once in the first meeting. DE DeMarcus Ware had two sacks last week to give him 18.0 for the season.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (8-7, 7-7-1 ATS): New York had lost five of six before an emotional 29-14 win over the Jets last week. The Giants have labored on their home field with a 4-3 record this season. That includes three-point wins over AFC East also-rans Miami and Buffalo and a stunning 23-10 loss to Washington two weeks ago. Manning has thrown for a franchise-record 4,587 yards and has won four of the last five matchups against Dallas. Undrafted WR Victor Cruz had the biggest play in last week’s win with a 99-yard scoring pass. He has amassed a team-record 1,358 yards on 76 receptions. RB Brandon Jacobs had 101 yards and two TDs vs. Dallas.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo needs 105 yards to reach 4,000 for the season. He’s the only QB in team history to reach 4,000.

2. Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul had two sacks, a safety, forced fumble and game-saving blocked FG in last meeting with Dallas.

3. The winner of Sunday’s game will host either the Detroit Lions or Atlanta Falcons in a wild card matchup next weekend.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 30, Giants 27. New York could have made this game meaningless if not for laying an egg at home against the Redskins two weeks ago. It comes back to bite the Giants.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, January 1

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Tale of the tape: Cowboys at Giants
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Take a look at the tale of the tape for Sunday night’s NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants:

Offense

Dallas, despite injuries to skill players all season, can put points on the board. Tony Romo is flirting with a 4,000-yard season under center and has the Cowboys ranked eighth in the NFL in passing yards. They have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, most notably Dez Bryant, who has been a Giant killer during his two-year career. He has four career touchdowns in three games versus New York.

Dallas’ running game is dangerously thin, with Felix Jones nursing a tender hamstring and rookie RB DeMarco Murray out for the year after breaking his ankle against the Giants in Week 14. Behind Jones is veteran rusher Sammy Morris.

Eli Manning has led an erratic Giants offense, but is still one of the best quarterbacks in crunch time. He led New York to a come-from-behind win in Dallas in Week 14, passing for 400 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in that game. The Giants have the fourth-ranked air attack in the NFL and should have Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks healthy on the wings.

The Giants rolled over the Cowboys in their last meeting, with running back Brandon Jacobs rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Fellow running back Ahmad Bradshaw was benched for most of that game after breaking team rules. On the year, New York ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing, putting up just over 88 yards per game.

Edge: Cowboys


Defense

It was New York’s defense that won the Week 14 matchup with the Cowboys and kept the team’s playoff hopes alive. Jason Pierre-Paul was outstanding in that game, recording two sacks, a safety, a forced fumble and won the game with a blocked field goal that would have forced overtime.

The Giants, on the year, are not as impressive on defense. They rank 28th in average yards allowed (381.5) and points against per game (25.7). However, New York looked solid against the Jets last Sunday, holding their N.Y. rivals to only 14 points.

Dallas’ defense has been stout against the run for most of the season, allowing just 98.6 yards on the ground per game. Against the pass is another story. The Cowboys secondary has been prone to the big play on third and fourth downs and ranks 23rd in the league in defending the pass.

Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is a master of disguising the blitz, but can sometimes get carried away. Dallas is seventh in the NFL with 40 sacks – 18 of those coming from linebacker DeMarcus Ware. Ware was limited to just two tackles against the Giants in Week 14 and took two crucial penalties in the final minutes that helped New York come back and win the game.

Edge: Giants


Special teams

Dallas’ special teams have been a mess in the home stretch of the season. Kicker Dan Bailey was iced by his own coach in a loss to Arizona and then got the freeze from Giants head coach Tom Coughlin in Week 14, eventually leading to a blocked field goal.

The punt and kick return game hasn’t been much to write home about either. Dallas averages 23.7 yards per kickoff return and only 7.3 yards per punt return – 27th in the NFL.

New York kicker Lawrence Tynes has connected on only 81.8 percent of his field goal attempts and doesn’t have the leg like Dallas’ Bailey.

The Giants return team averages 23.3 yards per kickoff and just 6.8 yards per punt return. Both New York and Dallas allow 10.3 yards per punt return.

Edge: Draw


Word on the street

“They’re going down there to watch me become a champion again. That’s what they’re there for, all of them. Hell, it’s a costly endeavor, but I want them to be there when we win the East, and I’ll probably steal a couple T-shirts and make sure they get them. Because that’s what we’re there for. If it doesn’t work out, I’ll be pissed off because everything we got is in this one.” – Dallas DC Rob Ryan talking about flying his family to the game in New York.

“I don’t know ... he’s 65 years old, maybe he wants to do something different. If Coach Coughlin wants to be back, I think he has that choice to be back. You never know what’s going on as far as what his thought process is, but I don’t see a reason to fire him, I guess. But I don’t get paid to make those decisions.” – New York DE Justin Tuck on the future of coach Tom Coughlin.


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[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Cowboys at Giants

December 31, 2011

The final game of the NFL regular season will decide the NFC East champion as the Giants welcome in the Cowboys to Met Life Stadium. New York forced this pseudo-division title game with a victory last week, while Dallas was humbled at home by Philadelphia. However, the biggest question mark for the Cowboys is if their starting quarterback will be effective after getting injured last week.

Tony Romo left last Saturday's loss to the Eagles after his right hand collided with the helmet of Philadelphia's Jason Babin. Romo didn't return as the Cowboys fell, 20-7 as one-point home favorites, while the Eagles pulled off the season sweep. Philadelphia outscored Dallas, 54-14 in the two victories, dropping the Cowboys to 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS inside division play this season.

The erratic Giants stayed alive with a 29-14 blowout of the rival Jets last Saturday, despite only nine completions from quarterback Eli Manning. One of those nine connections was a game-changing pass as Manning hit Victor Cruz for a 99-yard score to give the Giants a 10-7 lead. Big Blue outscored the Jets, 19-7 the rest of the way for their eighth win of the season, while covering their third straight game in the underdog role.

The last time these two teams hooked up at Cowboys Stadium in Week 14, the Giants rallied for a 37-34 triumph as 4 ½-point away 'dogs. New York overcame a late 12-point deficit with two touchdowns in the final 3:14, including a one-yard touchdown run by Brandon Jacobs to cap the comeback. Both quarterbacks performed well as Manning threw for 400 yards, while Romo tossed four touchdown passes. The Cowboys looked to force overtime, but the game-tying field goal in the final seconds was blocked.

Dallas hasn't been a bettor's dream the last two months by compiling a 2-7 ATS record, including a 2-6 ATS mark as a favorite in this span. However, the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS as an underdog, but Jason Garrett's team has lost to the Jets, Patriots, and Eagles in the 'dog role. What make this more frustrating for Dallas money-line players in those defeats are the fourth-quarter leads blown in the setbacks at New York and New England.

The Giants are pointspread poison when it comes to backing them as a favorite, putting together a 2-5-1 ATS ledger when laying points this season. Since covering in a Week 2 win over St. Louis, New York is 0-3-1 ATS when laying points at Met Life Stadium, including two division losses to Washington and Philadelphia. In fact, the Giants haven't won a home game since before Halloween against the Dolphins in Week 8, a 20-17 victory as nine-point 'chalk.'

From a totals perspective, the Cowboys are 9-6 to the 'under,' while the Giants have gone 8-6-1 to the 'over.' Dallas has cashed the 'under' in three of the previous four road contests, including a 31-15 victory at Tampa Bay with the total of 47. The Giants have seen the 'under' hit in three of the last four home games, while scoring 10 points in each of the losses to the Redskins and Eagles.

New York is listed as three-point favorites, while the total is set at 47. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's at kickoff, while there is a 40% chance of rain. The game will kick off at 8:20 PM EST and can be seen nationally on NBC.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 17

January 1, 2012

Week 16 Recap

The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week and the numbers probably would’ve been more one-sided if it wasn’t for some second-half explosions. Five games saw 30 points or more posted in the final 30 minutes. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 120-113-5 (52%).

Meaningful or Meaningless

Week 17 of the regular season is often compared to the preseason because it’s tough to gauge who will be going full speed and who’s going to be resting. Since all of the games are divisional battles, let’s take a look at the first meeting between the teams and everything else to help you and analyze the totals.

Early Games (1:00 p.m. ET)

Washington at Philadelphia: The Redskins have watched the ‘over’ cash in five of their last six, while the Eagles have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their last three. Philadelphia beat Washington 20-13 on Oct. 16 and the closing number of 47 was never threatened.

San Francisco at St. Louis: Four of the last six in this series has gone ‘under.’ San Francisco blanked St. Louis 26-0 on Dec. 4.

Chicago at Minnesota: Low total (41) for an indoor game and especially low for a Vikings’ squad that has surrendered an average of 33.3 PPG in their last seven games. The ‘over’ has gone 6-1 during this stretch.

Detroit at Green Bay: Four of the last five between this pair have gone ‘under’ and it’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ with the Packers expected to rest starters, including QB Aaron Rodgers.

Carolina at New Orleans: This is probably the game to watch if you’re looking for a shootout. The number is high (54.5) and could easily get there with the two gunslingers. The recent history here has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in the last five.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jaguars beat the Colts 17-3 on Nov. 13. Indianapolis has seen seven of its last eight go ‘under’ but Jacksonville is on a 4-0 run to the ‘over.’ The total is hovering around 37 points.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: New York has leaned to the ‘over’ (10-5) this season, while Miami has been an ‘under’ (11-4) club. The Jets stifled the Dolphins 24-6 in mid-October but Miami’s offense has improved since the setback. The previous two meetings from South Florida have watched the scoreboard operator put up 54 and 58 combined points.

Buffalo at New England: High number (50) here and certainly doable. The Bills beat the Patriots 34-31 back in Week 2. New England has watched the ‘over’ go 10-5 this season, but just 4-3 at home.

Late Games (4:15 p.m. ET)

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Seems like a high total (45.5) here, considering the two teams have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six meetings. However, Tampa Bay’s defense (29.9 PPG) hasn’t showed up during the team’s nine-game losing streak. Atlanta has watched its last three games go ‘over.’

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Must-win spot for the Bengals as a victory gets them into the playoffs. Ravens also need the win to lock up the division and first-round bye. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 31-24 in the first go ‘round, yet the total for the second encounter is a point lower (39 ½) in Week 17. Both the Bengals (3-1) and Ravens (4-1) enter this matchup on ‘under’ runs.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: Not surprisingly, this is the lowest total (34.5) on the board in Week 17. Pittsburgh needs a win but would rather come out healthy instead. The Steelers have given up 39 points in their last five games and it would be hard to see Cleveland adding to that number. Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 14-3 on Dec. 8.

San Diego at Oakland: The Chargers’ offense looked gross last week at Detroit (10-38) but they could do better against a suspect Raiders’ defense (26.6 PPG). Oakland beat San Diego 24-17 on the road in early October, as the total went ‘under’ (47.5). The last four played in the Bay Area between this pair has gone ‘over’ the number.

Kansas City at Denver: The Chiefs have been a clear-cut ‘under’ (11-4) team all season because they can’t score. We know Denver likes to run with Tim Tebow and most would expect a safe approach today with a playoff spot on the line. Denver stifled KC 17-10 at Arrowhead on Nov. 13.

Seattle at Arizona: The last three regular seasons, these teams have watched the ‘over/under’ go 1-1. With Seattle beating Arizona 13-10 in a low-scoring affair on Sept. 25, should we ride the trend and go ‘over’ the number here?

Under the Lights

The primetime affairs saw the ‘over’ go 2-0 last week. Not only did the ‘over’ cash, but the favorites came in on each game as well, which is never good for the books. This week, we only have one showdown and it should be a good one. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 19-12-1 (61%) in games under the lights this season.

Dallas at New York Giants: This series has produced nothing but shootouts lately, watching the ‘over’ cash in the last five meetings, including the Giants 37-34 road win over the Cowboys on Dec. 11. The total on that affair was 50 ½ points and this week the number has dropped to 47. The winner earns a playoff spot, which could create some conservative play-calling on both sides. Check the weather on this game as precipitation is expected for the late-night kickoff. Make a note that the ‘over’ has gone 12-5 in the SNF slot this season.

Fearless Predictions

Perhaps the New Year will bring us a winning streak. We hit the Team Total last week but couldn’t muster up anything else. The deficit was $220. On the season, the profits stand at 80 cents ($80). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year!

Best Over: San Diego-Oakland 48.5

Best Under: Baltimore-Cincinnati 39.5

Best Team Total: Over 22.5 San Diego

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over San Diego-Oakland 39.5
Under Baltimore-Cincinnati 48.5
Under Detroit-Green Bay 52

[Udog]

Thanks, Bum! Happy New Year, buddy!