Announcement

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:10 PM

Knicks-Lakers meet Thursday in L.A.

NEW YORK KNICKS (1-1)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (1-2)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: L.A. Lakers -4, Total: 197.5

It’s been years since these teams have been somewhat evenly matched, but the Knicks and Lakers are set for a solid battle when they meet in Los Angeles on Thursday night.

The Lakers are just getting their legs under them after a three games in three days gauntlet to start the season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are coming off a Wednesday night dud at Golden State. But the Lakers are still without C Andrew Bynum (suspension), and that’s going to be an issue against a Knicks team that is capable of scoring a lot of points. NEW YORK is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend working in the Knicks’ favor:

NEW YORK is 24-7 ATS (77.4%, +17.3 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NEW YORK 104.0, OPPONENT 104.5 - (Rating = 3*).

After a Christmas day heartbreaker against the Bulls and an embarrassment in Sacramento, the Lakers got on the board with a 96-71 home win over the Jazz, possibly the NBA’s worst team.

SG Kobe Bryant (27.7 PPG, 5.7 APG) is still playing at an all-NBA level, even if he has lost half a step in his 16th NBA season, and PF Pau Gasol (17.0 PPG, 8.7 RPG) seems to be showing no ill-effects from the near-trade to Houston last month. SF Metta World Peace (12.3 PPG) is spending more time in the low post on the offensive end of the court during Bynum’s absence, and he’s been effective there, shooting 52% from the field. But the Lakers have been playing a combination of PF Josh McRoberts (4.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and PF Troy Murphy (5.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) to fill in for Bynum, a major downgrade.

After scoring a solid season-opening home win over the Celtics, the Knicks basically took a night off in Oakland on Wednesday. They shot 40% from the field, 4-for-21 from three and were outscored 28-14 in the fourth quarter of a 92-78 loss. But with SF Carmelo Anthony (25.0 PPG) and PF Amar’e Stoudemire (18.5 PPG), they’ll be a handful against a Lakers team that doesn’t have Bynum to protect the basket. The Knicks also have C Tyson Chandler to take the defensive pressure off Stoudemire, who will be able to focus solely on the offensive side of the court.

The Knicks have some issues at point guard, where combo guard Toney Douglas (12.5 PPG) is holding down the fort while they wait for Baron Davis (back) to get healthy. Rookie first-rounder Iman Shumpert, expected to share the point with Douglas, is out with a knee injury. But L.A.’s point guard tandem of Steve Blake and Derek Fisher is unlikely to overwhelm them.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:11 PM

3-0 Thunder host 0-2 Mavs Thursday

DALLAS MAVERICKS (0-2)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (3-0)

Tip-off: Thursday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -7, Total: 196.5

Dallas is staring at a potential 0-3 start to its title defense when the Mavericks visit Oklahoma City on Thursday night.

Two games into the season, the Mavs swapped out a bunch of role players and look out-of-synch on offense and disinterested on defense. They were hammered at home by Miami and Denver by 11 and 22 points, respectively. But don’t underestimate head coach Rick Carlisle’s ability to get his team to focus on the road. Last year Dallas was 34-17 ATS (67%) on the road, and during their playoff run they were 9-1 ATS (7-3 SU) on the road, winning seven of the final eight road games outright. That included two SU wins in Oklahoma City, and going back to the regular season they were 4-0 SU and ATS at OKC. And with the Thunder coming off a hard-fought win in Memphis Wednesday night, the Mavs should go into this one with fresher legs. DALLAS is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend backing Carlisle’s proficiency in winning away from Big D:

Carlisle is 33-11 ATS (75.0%, +20.9 Units) in road games first half of the season as the coach of DALLAS. The average score was DALLAS 100.5, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 3*).

After last year’s playoff meltdown, the Thunder have gone back to leaning on SF Kevin Durant (31.7 PPG on 56% FG). That should hold especially true after PG Russell Westbrook, largely blamed for the Thunder’s dysfunctional offense in last spring’s series loss to Dallas, put up an almost comical 0-for-13 from the field in Wednesday’s 98-95 win over the Grizzlies.

The Mavs did a solid job limiting Durant’s quality looks in last year’s playoffs. In five games, Durant averaged 28.0 PPG but shot just 43% from the field and 23% on threes. However, now-departed SG DeShawn Stevenson did a lot of that defensive work on the scoring champ. This year, a combination of Shawn Marion and Vince Carter figure to be trying to stop him.

Dallas did not sit still during the offseason, but the early returns from its new lineup have not been good. With C Tyson Chandler, the anchor of last year’s defense, signing with New York, Dallas allowed 110.0 PPG and 49% shooting to their first two opponents, and they’re being outrebounded by 15.0 RPG. PF Dirk Nowitzki (20.5 PPG) has been a little off, shooting just 45% from the field. Newly added SG Carter (8.0 PPG, 3-for-6 from three) and PF Lamar Odom (5.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG), brought in to replace Stevenson and Chandler, respectively, have been nearly invisible on both ends of the floor.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:24 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, December 29

9-3 VCU won its last six games, but hasn't beaten top 100 team, losing to Seton Hall/Ga Tech/Alabama by 15-13-8 points- they're 2-1 in true road games, beating two bad teams, losing to Bama. Akron won opener at Miss State but is 5-5 vs D-I teams since, with best team of those five wins against #146 Detroit. CAA teams are 6-12 vs spread in games if spread is 3 or less points, 5-8 on road. MAC home teams are 8-2-1 vs spread when spread is less than 5 points.

Butler won 13 of last 14 games vs Green Bay, winning last four by 23-18-6-2 points; Phoenix lost last six visits here, by 6-21-9-9-23-6 points. 6-7 Bulldogs have played #24 schedule; they're 3-2 vs teams not in top 150, winning by 11-15-2 points- they lost last two home games. Green Bay is 0-6 on road, with four losses by 18+ points; they're horrendous on offense, turning ball over 23.7% of time, making 29.4% outside arc, just 41% inside it. Butler isn't same team as last couple years.

Detroit won its last three games with Ill-Chicago by 3-3-14 points; four of last six series games were won by 4 or less points. Titans lost three of last four visits here- they're 0-4 in true road games, with Bowling Green loss a red flagm but they do have big man Holman back now- that helps. UIC hasn't beaten anyone ranked higher than #211, but four of their last five losses are by 7 or less points; Flames are 4-1 at home, but lost to a D-III team (Quincy) at home. Never a good sign.

Home side won last six Milwaukee-Valparaiso games, with Panthers 0-3 in last three visits here, losing by 12-1-17 points, but Milwaukee beat Valpo 70-63 in Horizon semis last March. Crusaders are 3-4 last seven games, losing to three Summit League teams- they're 1-2 vs teams in top 100, losing by 9 at Arizona, 33 at Ohio State, beating Akron. Panthers are 8-0 vs teams not in top 50, winning at UALR, DePaul and Northern Illinois- they make only 58.5% from foul line (338th).

Northern Iowa won its last seven games vs Illinois State, winning its last three visits to Normal by 4-6-2 points; both of UNI's wins LY were by a hoop. Panthers are 2-2 vs top 100 teams, beating Milwaukee/Iowa St, losing by 16 at St Mary's, by 17 at home to Ohio U- they're 2-2 in true road games, winning at ODU/Iowa St. Redbirds is 8-3 playing schedule #341; they lost by 4 to Illinois on neutral court in only game they've had against team ranked higher than 130th.

Ark-Little Rock beat North Texas 64-63 in finals of Sun Belt tourney in March, ending UNT's four-game series win streak; Trojans lost last two visits to Denton by 18-12 points. Seven of last nine series games were decided by 5 or less points. UALR lost its last nine games vs D-I teams- they're 0-6 on road, with five of six losses by 7+ points. North Texas is 4-0 vs teams ranked below #200, winning all three home games by 3-14-42 points. Mean Green is making just 24% of 3-point shots.

8-4 Vanderbilt split its two road games, winning at Davidson by 4, with an OT loss at Louisville; Commodores split their last six games, with a couple OT losses and a 6-point loss to Indiana State. 11-1 Marquette has its Big East opener Sunday; they're 3-1 vs top 100 teams, losing at LSU, beating Wisconsin-Washington-Milwaukee by 7-2-14 points. Big East single digit home favorites are 8-13 vs spread. SEC road underdogs are 19-10, 15-8 when spread is single digits.

USC is 8-4 in its last dozen games vs Cal Bears, but they've lost three of last four visits here, winning LY after losing previous three visits by 10-3-8 points. Trojans lost four of last five games, with last three losses at home; they're 0-3 on road, losing by hoop at San Diego St, 11 at UNLV, 15 at Minnesota. California is 9-0 at home- they beat Denver by 21 and UCSB by 20, two best teams they've played here. All ten of Cal's wins are by 16 or more points.

First true road game for 9-1 Oklahoma whose only loss was to St Louis by 20 on neutral floor; they beat Washington State/Santa Clara in same tournament- rest of their games have been home. Sooners are rebounding 44.3% of their misses (#3). 9-3 Cincinnati has played #343 schedule- their Big East opener in Sunday; Cincy lost by 4-23 points in its only two games vs top 100 teams. Big X road underdogs of 5 or less points are 8-6 vs spread; Big East home favorites of 6 or less points are 2-5.

Oregon State is 3-14 in its last 17 games vs Washington, losing nine in a row in Seattle by 1-40-4-17-9-19-6-12-32 points; Beavers are 3-1 away from Corvallis, winning true road games at Chicago State/Towson, two of three worst teams in country- they split pair of games against teams ranked higher than #117. Erratic Huskies lost four of last six games, with 92-73 home loss to South Dakota State. These two teams are both in tp 20 in country in pace, so this shoudl be high-scoring game. .

Oregon won four of last five games vs Washington State, but lost three of last four visits to Pullman, losing by 9-29-14 points. Ducks are 1-2 on road, losing by 14 at both Vanderbilt/BYU, winning at Nebraska- they're 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 14-14-13 points. Best team Oregon beat is #120 Nebraska. 8-4 Coogs are 1-3 vs teams ranked in top 170, beating Idaho by 2 in Moscow- they're making 54% of 2-point shots. Ducks are on road for first time in 26 days.

UCLA won three in row, nine of last ten games vs Stanford, taking three of last four here, winning by 9-5-4 points, but these Bruins aren't those Bruins. UCLA is 0-4 vs teams in top 60, with all four losses by double digit margins- they've won last five games, but #107 Richmond was best of those five victims. 10-2 Stanford has played #301 schedule; they're 2-1 vs top 100 teams, losing to Syracuse by 6 in NYC, beating Oklahoma State/NC State. This is also UCLA's first road game vs a D-I team.

BYU's first WCC games is in Moraga against St Mary's team that is 9-0 at home, with wins over No Iowa/Weber State- they're best defensive rebounding team in country. Cougars split pair of true road games, losing by 7 at Utah State, beating dreadful Utah- they're making 40.3% of shots behind arc. St Mary's is 49-10 in WCC play last four years. Transfer Carlino gives BYU added outside shooting threat. Both teams teams lost to Baylor, BYU by 3 at home, Gaels by 13 on neutral floor.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:43 PM

Thursday's betting tips: Nothing but Baylor bets in Alamo Bowl

Who’s hot

NCAAF: Florida State is 6-0-1 against the number in its last seven bowl games.

NCAAF: Washington is 11-5-1 against the spread in its last 17 overall.

NBA: Denver is 29-11-1 against the spread in its last 41 meetings with Portland.

NHL: Philadelphia has won four of its last five games against Pittsburgh.

NCAAB: Vanderbilt is 8-2-2 against the spread in its last 12 road games.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Notre Dame is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight bowl games.

NCAAF: The under is 4-16-1 in Baylor’s last 21 overall.

NBA: Chicago has dropped six straight against the number dating back to last season.

NHL: The New York Islanders have dropped seven of their last 10 overall and four straight home games.

NCAAB: Rutgers is 0-6 against the number this season and 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games.

Key stat

16 – The Baylor Bears have punted the ball just 16 times during the five game winning streak that preceded Thursday’s date with Washington in the Alamo Bowl. During that span, the Bears are averaging 46.4 points and have scored 31 touchdowns. Baylor is set as a 9.5-point favorite and a whopping 76 percent of *********** Consensus bettors are backing the Bears.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Festus Ezeli, Vanderbilt Commodores – Vanderbilt’s starting center is questionable for Thursday’s game against Marquette as he deals with knee tendinitis. The 6-foot-11 center averaged 13 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.6 blocks last season but has played just two games this season due to injury and suspension issues. The Commodores opened as 8.5-point underdogs.

Game of the day

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Florida State Seminoles (3.5, 46)

Notable quotable

"It's not been two years or three years since we've been on the top, it's been 10. That's something we have to change." – Florida State Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher.

Notes and tips

Dallas Stars goaltender Kari Lehtonen will return to the ice for Thursday's game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Coach Glen Gulutzan also announced that defensemen Sheldon Souray and Stephane Robidas will be sidelined for 10-14 days apiece. Souray is nursing a sprained ankle and Robidas sustained a setback in his recovery from a foot injury. As for Lehtonen, he'll be making his first start since being sidelined on Nov. 26 with a groin injury. Lehtonen was off to a sizzling start prior to getting hurt with a 13-4-1 record and 2.34 goals-against average.

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis went through a limited practice Wednesday and is expected to be available if needed for Sunday's game against the St. Louis Rams. Willis has been sidelined for the past three games since suffering a hamstring injury on Dec. 4 against the Rams. The 49ers (12-3) are battling the New Orleans Saints (12-3) for the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. The leader of a defense that has allowed a league-low 202 points, Willis has registered at least 128 tackles in his first four seasons and had missed only one game in his career prior to this injury.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:45 PM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Oh no!!!! Dan Orlovsky's wife gave birth to triplets this week, so the Colts' QB missed practice Wednesday. Need him in the lineup down in Jacksonville so the Colts can win and the Rams get the #1 pick. Hope mother and children are healthy, but we need the dad back to work.

-- Georgetown went to Louisville and beat the Cardinals 71-68 at the Yum! Center, giving Louisville its first loss of the season, with a game at Kentucky up next for Pitino's team.

-- Baylor held off Mississippi State 54-52 in game that had tournament feel to it; pretty tense, not the best-played contest.

-- MAC came into this bowl season 4-17 in its last 21 bowls, but they are 3-1 this year after Toledo held off Air Force 42-41 in the Military Bowl, when Air Force went for two points and the win in last 1:00.

-- Miami Heat was down 15 at the half, but rallied back to win 96-95 at Charlotte, with Dwyane Wade hitting winning shot with 0:02.9 left.

-- NBA season is four days old and under is 19-12-1 so far, as teams are getting in shape and developing chemistry on the fly.

*****************

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend.....

13) Unusual NFL Sunday this week, in that all 16 games this week are on Sunday, and all 16 are divisional rivalries; doesn’t happen very much.

12) Bengals probably need to win to make the playoffs; their fans did sell this game out; Ravens need this game for their first home playoff game in the Harbaugh era (and a bye). Interesting game.

11) 16 of 35 bowls will be finished before an SEC team takes field, which means that an SEC team will play in nine of the last 19 bowls this year.

10) Detroit/Atlanta are both in the playoffs, but there’s a big difference between going to New Orleans and going to play the NFC East champs next weekend. Lions will fight like hell to win at Lambeau and get that #5 seed, to avoid another trip to Bourbon Street.

9) When was the last time the NBA headliner on a Friday night was Bulls-Clippers? It is this week. Should be a terrific game.

8) Kentucky-Louisville is the biggest non-conference rivalry in college basketball; Cardinals lost to Georgetown last night, but no one in the Commonwealth will remember that result if the Cardinals beat UK. Its a hell of a bad week if they lose to the Wildcats.

7) Can the Colts snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and clinch the #1 slot in next April’s draft? If Indy wins, that noise you hear will be me being happy for the first time this football season.

6) Vanderbilt is favored in a bowl game; seriously, they are. Granted its against a Big East team, but trust me, this scenario doesn’t happen much.

5) There are several conference basketball games this weekend in college ranks; will be curious to see if UCLA can win a game in the Bay Area against either Cal/Stanford, after a dismal pre-conference performance by the Bruins.

4) Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops played college football at Iowa; now he is a 14-point favorite over the Hawkeyes in the Insight Bowl, a game Iowa won LY. Stoops’ bowl record isn’t the best, while Kirk Ferentz is 6-1 vs the spread when a bowl underdog. Will the Hawkeye players be excited to be back in Tempe again this year? (Hey, its better than Iowa State’s game, in the South Bronx.)

3) Since UCLA-Illinois both fired their coach and decided to go in a different direction, shouldn’t they be playing in the Compass Bowl next weekend? I’m just asking.

2) Kyle Orton started this season as the Broncos’ starting QB; the team cut him after the trading deadline, and now he returns to Denver in Week 17 with a chance to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs; this has to be a unique scenario in NFL history.

1) Dallas-Giant game Sunday night is for NFC East title and the NFC’s #4 seed, which comes with a home playoff game. Good theater. Winner breathes a sigh of relief; loser thinks of reasons why they shouldn’t fire their head coach. That’s the world we live in today.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:53 PM

NCAAB

Thursday, December 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Stetson - 7:00 PM ET Stetson +17 500
Central Florida -

Citadel - 7:00 PM ET Citadel +20.5 500
Tennessee

Pennsylvania - 7:00 PM ET Pennsylvania +11 500
Davidson -

Harvard - 7:00 PM ET Boston College +12 500
Boston College -

Iona - 7:00 PM ET Iona -8.5 500
Hofstra -

Green Bay - 7:00 PM ET Butler -8.5 500
Butler -

Austin Peay - 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky -2.5 500
Eastern Kentucky -

VCU - 7:00 PM ET Akron +1 500
Akron -

Yale - 7:00 PM ET Yale +4 500
Wake Forest -

Florida - 7:00 PM ET Florida -10.5 500
Rutgers -

Elon University - 7:00 PM ET North Carolina -30 500
North Carolina -

William & Mary - 7:00 PM ET William & Mary +12.5 500
Miami (OH) - Over 123.5 500

Penn St. - 7:30 PM ET Michigan -13 500
Michigan -

Southern Illinois - 8:00 PM ET Evansville -5.5 500
Evansville -

Arkansas-Little Rock - 8:00 PM ET North Texas -5.5 500
North Texas -

Florida International - 8:00 PM ET Florida International +18 500
Middle Tennessee St. - Over 128.5 500

Wright St. - 8:00 PM ET Loyola-Chicago -2.5 500
Loyola-Chicago -

Tennessee Tech - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech -11.5 500
SIU - Edwardsville - Over 138.5 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit -6.5 500
Illinois-Chicago -

Georgia Tech - 8:00 PM ET Fordham +7.5 500
Fordham -

Wis.-Milwaukee - 8:05 PM ET Wis.-Milwaukee +1.5 500
Valparaiso -

Northern Iowa - 8:05 PM ET Northern Iowa -2 500
Illinois St. - Under 119.5 500

Tenn-Martin - 8:30 PM ET Tenn-Martin +11.5 500
Tennessee St. - Over 134 500

Western Kentucky - 8:30 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe +1 500
Louisiana-Monroe -

Kent St. - 8:35 PM ET Kent St. -3 500
Arkansas St. -

Sacramento State - 8:35 PM ET Northern Arizona -4.5 500
Northern Arizona -

Oregon - 9:00 PM ET Washington St. -6 500
Washington St. - Over 137.5 500

Oregon St. - 9:00 PM ET Washington -6 500
Washington - Over 158 500

Oklahoma - 9:00 PM ET Cincinnati -4.5 500
Cincinnati -

Idaho State - 9:00 PM ET Weber St. -15 500
Weber St. -

Troy - 9:00 PM ET Denver -14.5 500
Denver - Over 133.5 500

Vanderbilt - 9:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +8.5 500
Marquette -

Wagner - 9:00 PM ET Under 125.5 500
Air Force -

Southern California - 9:00 PM ET California -12 500
California -

James Madison - 9:30 PM ET James Madison -10.5 500
Rhode Island -

San Francisco - 10:00 PM ET Pepperdine +2 500
Pepperdine - Under 132 500

UC Davis - 10:05 PM ET Cal St. Fullerton -19 500
Cal St. Fullerton -

UC Irvine - 10:05 PM ET CSU Northridge -2.5 500
CSU Northridge -

Fresno St. - 10:30 PM ET Pacific +2.5 500
Pacific -

Brigham Young - 11:00 PM ET St. Mary's -3.5 500
St. Mary's -

UCLA - 11:00 PM ET Stanford -6.5 500
Stanford -

Eastern Michigan - 11:15 PM ET Santa Clara -11.5 500
Santa Clara -

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 06:58 PM

NBA

Thursday, December 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Jersey - 7:00 PM ET New Jersey +11.5 500
Orlando - Over 181 500

San Antonio - 8:00 PM ET San Antonio +1 500
Houston - Under 197.5 500

Dallas - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -6.5 500
Oklahoma City - Over 196.5 500

Chicago - 10:00 PM ET Sacramento +7.5 500
Sacramento - Under 186.5 500

Denver - 10:00 PM ET Portland -5.5 500
Portland - Under 199 500

New York - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Lakers -3.5 500
L.A. Lakers - Under 197.5 500

**StarDust Bum** · 12-29-2011, 07:02 PM

NHL

Thursday, December 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Calgary 0 0th NY Islanders +105 500
NY Islanders 0 Over 5.5 500

Philadelphia 0 0th Pittsburgh -130 500
Pittsburgh 0 Over 5.5 500

Toronto 0 0th Carolina +101 500
Carolina 0 Over 5.5 500

Montreal - 7:30 PM ET Montreal +111 500
Tampa Bay - Over 5.5 500

Edmonton - 8:00 PM ET Edmonton +118 500
Minnesota - Over 5 500

Los Angeles - 8:30 PM ET Winnipeg -129 500
Winnipeg - Over 5.5 500

Columbus - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -170 500
Dallas - Under 5.5 500

Phoenix - 9:00 PM ET Phoenix +120 500
Colorado - Over 5.5 500

Vancouver - 10:00 PM ET Vancouver -160 500
Anaheim - Under 5.5 500

Announcement

The Bum's Thursday's NCAAB - NBA - NHL Best Bets !

The Bum's Thursday's NCAAB - NBA - NHL Best Bets !

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