Announcement

**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 12:41 AM

Sunday’s betting tips: Under cashing in with Bears-Packers

Who’s hot

NFL: The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC.

NBA: The road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings between the Heat and Mavericks.

NBA: The under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings between the Bulls and Lakers.

NCAAB: UTEP is 5-0 ATS in its last five overall.

Who’s not

NFL: The over is 0-8 in the last eight meetings between the Bears and Packers.

NBA: The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Golden State.

NBA: The road team is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings between the Thunder and Magic.

NCAAB: Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four overall.

Key stat

4-14 – Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard has consistently shot 60 percent from the free-throw line throughout his career. However, it appears that he has become even worse from the charity stripe. In two preseason games against the Miami Heat, Howard was four of 14 at the line (3 for 10 followed by 1 for 4). The Oklahoma City Thunder will not be afraid to put Howard on the free-throw line during Sunday’s season opener.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Injuries will put a damper on a few NBA stars’ Christmas Day, including Paul Pierce of the Boston Celtics. Pierce, hampered by a heel issue, is listed as doubtful for the season-opener against New York. In fact head coach Doc Rivers said just that (“it’s doubtful”) after Pierce sat out practice earlier this weekend.

Biggest games on the slate

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (4, 188.5)

Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (4, 185.5)

Notable quotable

"Those two are going to make it easy on me, as well. Not only on the court, but off the court; teaching me the little things, just things they have learned over the past 800 years…however long they have played." – Blake Griffin of the Los Angeles Clippers on recent acquisitions Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups. The new-look Clippers open the season on Christmas Day at Golden State.

Tips and notes

The Bears have dropped four in a row and in their last three they are averaging a woeful 215.7 total yards per game. Caleb Hanie has thrown nine interceptions in four starts and in his last three he has just one touchdown against six interceptions. That does not bode well as the Bears, who are reportedly going to start Josh McCown at QB, try to avoid losing to the Packers for an incredible fourth time in the same calendar year. Green Bay prevailed 10-3 in Week 17 of last season, 21-14 in the NFC Championship, and 27-17 on September 26.

Bowl season takes a break on Christmas, but it gets going again on Monday with the Independence Bowl between North Carolina and Missouri. Carolina had declared wide receiver Dwight Jones ineligible after he used his name and likeness to promote a New Year’s Eve party in his hometown. However, the NCAA has since cleared Jones to play. Jones has 79 receptions for 1119 yards and 11 touchdowns this season.

**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 12:45 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Dallas-Giant game has been moved to Sunday night in Week 17, with the NFC East title up for grabs. Good get for NBC. Bad for my cousin, who has Giant season tickets and will now freeze for three hours.

-- Favorites are 5-9 against the spread this week; two games remain.

-- Lions were only team that clinched a playoff spot Saturday.

-- Under is 10-4 this week, with only 56 offensive TDs scored. There were four TDs scored on defense/special teams- Buffalo had three.

-- The Hawai'i Bowl saves my Christmas Eve every year.

-- Apparently, if the ex-wife and I had given each other a Lexus with a big red bow on it as a Christmas gift, we'd still be married. Or not. Do people really give each other cars as Christmas gifts?

**************

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Saturday.........

13) Giants beat the Jets, setting up Sunday night game next week as big game of the week, with the NFC East title at stake when Dallas visits the Garden State for a game in Swamp Stadium.

12) Another big game will be in Denver, where old friend Kyle Orton can knock the Broncos out of the playoffs if his Chiefs upset Denver. Not the best of days for the AFC West, with Chargers/Broncos getting crushed. Denver might be 7-3 with Tebow starting, but two of his three losses are by 45-10/40-14 scores. Tebow looks like a JV high school QB when he has an off day passing- he was 13-30 with four INTs Sunday.

11) We hope Adrian Peterson didn't tear his ACL as feared, but if he did, not only did Minnesota screw up its draft position by winning Sunday, they lost their best player heading into next season. Not good.

10) Bengals narrowly missed an enormous collapse; they led 23-0 in 4th quarter, and Cardinals had receiver wide open for tying TD in last minute, but Early Doucet fell down before pass got there and Bengals survived.

9) Why stats can be misleading: Carolina scored 48 points- they were 0-6 on third down. Steelers won 27-0; they were 1-7. Buffalo scored 40, and they only had one offensive TD. Have to look at the whole picture.

8) Woeful, pathetic Rams are 2-13; they're 0-12-1 vs spread in those 13 losses, thats how non-competitive their offense has been, because to be fair, their defense hasn't been terrible.

By way of comparison, by my quick count, the other 31 NFL teams are 38-181-6 vs spread (17.4%) when they lose a game.

7) Rams need Colts to win at Jacksonville next week; if so, they will have the #1 pick in the draft, which could turn into a trade bonanza if there are a lot of teams who are willing to trade for Andrew Luck.

6) Raiders won at Kansas City in OT, despite 15 accepted penalties for 92 yards, 7th time in last nine games they've had 10+ accepted penalties.

5) Titans didn't have one penalty Sunday; now thats unusual. Houston is locked into the #3 seed in AFC, so their game next week vs Tennessee won't mean anything to the Texans.

4) You see how the 49ers struggle when they don't dominate turnovers and field position; they were +1 in turnovers, but -3 in field position and were life-and-death to win at Seattle 19-17, getting their only takeaway when the Seahawks were driving for the game-winning field goal.

3) Going to be a long offseason for Mark Sanchez, who might be well-advised to lay off a little on the commercials.

2) Congrats to Lion fans; your team is in the playoffs for first time since 1999. 12 years is a long time in between playoff games.

1) Merry Christmas to everyone; Sunday has five NBA games, the NFL game at night and four college hoop games from Hawai'i. Enjoy.

**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 12:55 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Chicago at LA Lakers
The Bulls look to take advantage of a Lakers team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as an underdog. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3). Here are all of today's picks

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25

Game 501-502: Boston at New York (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.857; New York 125.743
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 7; 188
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-5); Under

Game 503-504: Miami at Dallas (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.590; Dallas 120.108
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-4 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Chicago at LA Lakers (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.092; LA Lakers 120.374
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 186
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Over

Game 507-508: Orlando at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 117.449; Oklahoma City 127.497
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 10; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 197
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-8); Under

Game 509-510: LA Clippers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.521; Golden State 115.984
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 211
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5); Under

NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, December 25

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BOSTON (61 - 30) at NEW YORK (42 - 44) - 12/25/2011, 12:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 7-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (72 - 31) at DALLAS (73 - 30) - 12/25/2011, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-3 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (71 - 27) at LA LAKERS (61 - 31) - 12/25/2011, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in road games in December games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 88-120 ATS (-44.0 Units) in road games first half of the season since 1996.
CHICAGO is 56-41 ATS (+10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ORLANDO (54 - 34) at OKLAHOMA CITY (64 - 35) - 12/25/2011, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 36-51 ATS (-20.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-2 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CLIPPERS (32 - 50) at GOLDEN STATE (36 - 46) - 12/25/2011, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 32-48 ATS (-20.8 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 5-3 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-4 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, December 25

BOSTON at NEW YORK, 12:05 PM ET TNT
BOSTON: 23-25 ATS as a road underdog
NEW YORK: 22-11 OVER as a home favorite

MIAMI at DALLAS, 2:30 PM ET ABC
MIAMI: 9-1 ATS in road games in December games
DALLAS: 10-22 ATS in home games in non-conference games

CHICAGO at LA LAKERS, 5:00 PM ET ABC
CHICAGO: 56-41 ATS in all games
LA LAKERS: 16-30 ATS in home games

ORLANDO at OKLAHOMA CITY, 8:05 PM ET ESPN
ORLANDO: 36-51 ATS in all games
OKLAHOMA CITY: 15-5 ATS against Southeast division opponents

LA CLIPPERS at GOLDEN STATE, 10:35 PM ET ESPN
LA CLIPPERS: 32-48 ATS in road games
GOLDEN STATE: 59-36 OVER in home games in December games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

NBA

Sunday, December 25

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Trend Report
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12:00 PM
BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 9 games at home
New York is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Boston

2:30 PM
MIAMI vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
Dallas is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Dallas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

5:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. LA LAKERS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing LA Lakers
Chicago is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Chicago
LA Lakers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chicago

8:00 PM
ORLANDO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Orlando is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando

10:30 PM
LA CLIPPERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
LA Clippers are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 7 games
Golden State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

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NBA

Sunday, December 25

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What bettors need to know: NBA Christmas Day
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Boston Celtics at New York Knicks (-5, 193.5)

THE STORY: Two of the NBA's most storied franchises enter the shortened 2011-12 season in vastly different mindsets. The Boston Celtics look to squeeze the last bit of playoff glory out of their aging Big Three, while the New York Knicks carry high aspirations thanks to a full season of Carmelo Anthony and the arrival of center Tyson Chandler. The northeast U.S. rivals meet Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden in the first game of the NBA season. The Celtics have had a rough offseason already, learning they'll be without talented forward Jeff Green due to heart issues. His absence carves into the depth of a Boston club already dealing with a heel injury to forward Paul Pierce that will likely keep him out of Sunday's game. Pierce (34), Kevin Garnett (35) and Ray Allen (36) will be relied upon to lead the Celtics to one final postseason push before the club decides what direction to head in next. New York is led by Anthony, Chandler and sensational power forward Amar'e Stoudemire, who join forces in what will be one of the most imposing frontcourts in the league.

TV: Noon ET, TNT, TSN

ABOUT THE CELTICS (2010-11: 56-26): Boston intends to dip into its bench more than in seasons past due to a condensed schedule that could play havoc with its older players. Green's loss hurts even more in that regard, but head coach Doc Rivers remains confident about his group of reserves led by offseason acquisition Brandon Bass and bruising forward Chris Wilcox. One weakness may be at center, where the club opens with brittle veteran Jermaine O'Neal as its starter.

ABOUT THE KNICKS (2010-11: 42-40): The acquisition of Chandler from the defending NBA-champion Dallas Mavericks was met with rabid optimism by a majority of Knicks fans who believed the team needed a third star to join Anthony and Stoudemire. While Chandler won't turn the Knicks into instant title contenders, his rebounding (9.4 per game last season) and shot blocking (1.1) will make a formidable frontcourt even more impressive.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Celtics swept the Knicks in the first round of last year's playoffs. Boston also won the regular-season series by a 4-0 count.

2. Rivers plans to use Garnett at center much more than he has in the past. "I think that at this point in his career it's not a bad spot for him," he said.

3. The Knicks signed veteran PG Baron Davis even though he will likely miss half the season with a herniated disk in his back. Davis was waived by the Cleveland Cavaliers last week.

TRENDS:

* Celtics are 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings in New York.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

PREDICTION: Knicks 98, Celtics 95

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (+4.5, 189)

THE STORY: If it wasn’t embarrassing enough for the Miami Heat to lose in the NBA Finals after bringing in LeBron James and Chris Bosh for the specific purpose of winning a championship, now they have to start over by watching the Dallas Mavericks raise the championship banner. The Mavericks, who downed the Heat in six games last June for their first ever NBA title, will hold a ceremony before hosting Miami in the Christmas Day opener. James, who was loudly criticized for his performance in that series, reportedly spent the summer and extended break working on a post game and trying to recover some of the swagger that was absent in the fourth quarter of nearly every finals game. Miami president Pat Reilly was busy as well, locking coach Eric Spoelstra up with a long-term contract and adding veterans Shane Battier and Eddy Curry to the roster. Dallas has seen a few of its championship pieces leave town - most notably center Tyson Chandler - but traded for Lamar Odom and expects to defend its title.

TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, ABC, TSN

ABOUT THE HEAT (2010-11: 58-24): James, who averaged 26.7 points in the 2010-11 regular season, slumped to 17.8 in the finals and often looked timid with the ball in the fourth quarter. He committed six turnovers in the decisive Game 6. But after playing the villains all of last season, James, Bosh and Dwyane Wade are no longer alone in the “super team” game and should have some of the pressure off. Wade is expected to assume more of the ball-handling responsibilities with Mike Bibby gone.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (2010-11: 57-25): No one expected Dallas to cruise through the playoffs last season. But Dirk Nowitzki turned in a performance for the ages, averaging 27.7 points and 8.1 rebounds in the playoffs while shooting 94.1 percent from the free throw line and 46 percent from beyond the arc. The Mavericks will miss Chandler on the inside and did not get any younger when they lost J.J. Barea and brought in Odom and Vince Carter.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Dallas’ projected starting lineup has an average age of 34, with top reserves Jason Terry and Odom each over 32.

2. Nowitzki recorded a double-double in four of the last five games against Miami last June.

3. James has averaged 26.9 points in 16 career regular season games against the Mavericks.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Dallas.
* Heat are 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 meetings.

PREDICTION: Mavericks 100, Heat 94

Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5, 185.5)

THE STORY: The Los Angeles Lakers swirled through the headlines during the compacted free agency/training camp period for all the wrong reasons. They were controversially stymied by the commissioner in their pursuit of Chris Paul and sent away Lamar Odom to a top rival for nothing more than a trade exception. But nothing has the potential to impact the Lakers’ season more than Kobe Bryant’s wrist injury. The superstar was hurt in the first preseason game and diagnosed with a torn ligament. Medical predictions have him out at least 2-3 weeks, but this is the same player who taught himself to shoot left-handed a few years ago so that he could stay in the lineup with a right shoulder injury. Bryant is considered day-to-day and has participated in practice. He should be ready for Christmas Day, when Los Angeles opens its season by hosting the Chicago Bulls. While the Lakers look like they are on the way down, the Bulls are trending upward. Reigning MVP Derrick Rose just signed a five-year contract extension and Chicago looms as the logical rival to the Miami Heat in the East for years to come.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ABC, TSN2

ABOUT THE BULLS (2010-11: 62-20): Chicago posted the best record in the NBA during the 2010-11 regular season but ended up falling in the Eastern Conference finals to the Heat. Exposed in that series was the Bulls’ lack of a second perimeter scorer to take the pressure off Rose. In to fill that gap is former All-Star Richard Hamilton, who signed a three-year deal after being released by the Detroit Pistons.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (2010-11: 57-25): It was widely reported that Los Angeles had re-made its team with a trade for Paul a few weeks ago, sending out Pau Gasol and Odom in the proposed deal. When David Stern squashed the trade, the Lakers were left standing with an aging team that had been swept out of the playoffs by the Dallas Mavericks. Josh McRoberts is the only significant new piece added to the roster.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Bryant is averaging 24.7 points in 26 career games against the Bulls.

2. Rose collected 23 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists on Christmas Day last season but the Bulls fell at the New York Knicks, 103-95.

3. The Lakers are starting out under new coach Mike Brown, who took over for legendary boss Phil Jackson over the summer.

TRENDS:

* Under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.
* Underdog is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

PREDICTION: Bulls 94, Lakers 85

Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8, 197.5)

THE STORY: Expectations are high in Oklahoma City as the Thunder enter the season as one of the favorites to reach the NBA Finals. That quest begins in earnest Sunday night as the Thunder entertain the Orlando Magic in the season opener for both teams. Oklahoma City rode one of the youngest rosters in the league to a berth in the Western Conference finals a season ago - and with the core of the team still intact, a conference title may not be out of the question. "Chemistry is a big part of winning," says Thunder superstar Kevin Durant. "We continue to grow as a group. We didn't make any really big changes. We stayed together." The same can be said to some degree for the Magic, though that may not remain the case for long. Rumors continue to swirl around the possible future destination of franchise center Dwight Howard, who has waffled over whether he's interested in signing long-term with Orlando or heading elsewhere. That uncertainty may torpedo the team's chances of competing for the East title, though Howard's talent alone will win them more than a handful of games throughout the season.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, TSN2

ABOUT THE MAGIC (2010-11: 52-30): Howard's concerns about the quality of the roster being built around him haven't been addressed - at least, not to his satisfaction. The team opted to amnesty guard Gilbert Arenas, then dealt Brandon Bass to Boston for fellow big man Glen Davis. The rest of the core cast remains the same, with Jameer Nelson and Jason Richardson manning the backcourt and Howard joined up front by Hedo Turkoglu and either Davis or Ryan Anderson.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (2010-11: 55-27): Oklahoma City head coach Scott Brooks doesn't want to mess with a good thing. As a result, fans should expect to see the exact same starting five the Thunder trotted out at the end of last season. Durant is joined by versatile point guard Russell Westbrook, forming a sensational 1-2 scoring punch. Add in shot-blocking specialist Serge Ibaka and top-flight sixth man James Harden, and the Thunder should challenge for the West crown.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The teams split a pair of meetings last season, with the home team prevailing each time.

2. Durant has averaged just 21 points in seven career games against the Magic, his lowest total against any NBA team.

3. Howard averaged 39.5 points, 16.5 rebounds and four blocks in two games against the Thunder a season ago.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.

PREDICTION: Thunder 113, Magic 103

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (+5, 210.5)

THE STORY: Twenty years after the retirement of Magic Johnson, “Showtime” is back in vogue on the West Coast. Only this time it looks to be domain of the Los Angeles Clippers, who are trying to escape the shadow of the mighty Los Angeles Lakers with the stunning trade for superstar point guard Chris Paul. The move to acquire Paul – which came after the NBA blocked a trade that would have sent him to the Lakers – has left Clippers fans with visions of the postseason in their heads, not to mention a nightly highlight reel with dunk-meister Blake Griffin on the receiving end of Paul's alley-oop passes. “We are trying to establish ourselves in the entire league,” Griffin said. "The Lakers are popular for a reason. Sixteen championships. Two in the last three years. It’s not about us versus them. It’s about us versus everybody.” The Clippers kick off the season with a visit to Golden State on Christmas night.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSBA

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (2010-11: 32-50): Los Angeles did a nice job of putting pieces around Paul, signing veteran G Chauncey Billups and F Caron Butler – both former All-Stars – and matching a pricey offer sheet (by the Warriors) to retain C DeAndre Jordan. Billups must make the transition to shooting guard and Butler needs to show he’s healthy after having knee surgery. Griffin was the first rookie to earn an All-Star spot since 2003 and looks primed for a monster season.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (2010-11: 36-46): For a team that will rely heavily on its vaunted backcourt, Golden State absorbed a double whammy in the past week. Leading scorer Monta Ellis was named in a sexual-harassment lawsuit by a former team employee and point guard Stephen Curry suffered a sprained of his surgically repaired ankle. That’s more than 42 points per game of concern for rookie coach Mark Jackson. F David Lee is the best threat among an unimposing front line.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Jackson has zero coaching experience, but the former point guard played 17 seasons in the NBA.

2. Los Angeles has made only four postseason appearances in franchise history, the last coming in the 2005-06 season.

3. The teams have split the past 10 meetings. The Warriors have scored at least 121 points in four of their wins.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
* Clippers are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Clippers are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Golden State.

PREDICTION: Clippers 106, Warriors 102

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NBA

Sunday, December 25

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Pick 'n' roll: Sunday's best NBA bets
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Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks (4.5, 188.5)

Get your popcorn ready for Christmas Day. Among five blockbuster games kicking off the 2011-12 NBA season is a rematch of last year's finals between the Heat and Mavs.

For champion Dallas, Tyson Chandler is gone and Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and Shawn Marion are one year older. However, Lamar Odom is on board and so is Vince Carter. Chandler's absence will be damaging in the long run, but it should not be too much of a factor in one game against an opponent that lacks any kind of dominant center.

The Heat generally have their team intact from last season, plus they acquired valuable role player Shane Battier and big man Eddie Curry. However, both Battier (quadriceps) and Curry (hip flexor) are questionable for Sunday's contest along with Eddie House (knee). Jason Terry (illness) is questionable for Dallas.

The Mavericks will raise their championship banner prior to the game, but Miami will remain in its locker room during the ceremony.

“I don’t know what I would do,’’ Dirk Nowitzki said. “Maybe I would watch it as motivation. Either way, that is not really about the Miami Heat. That's about us and our fans and what we did last year.But then we’ve got to forget about that and play a good game.’’

The Mavericks will, and while this season as a whole may be about the favored Heat, Nowitzki is correct in saying Sunday will be about the Mavs.

Pick: Mavericks

Chicago Bulls at Los Angeles Lakers (4, 185.5)

You know it's been a tough offseason when the least of your concerns is losing two in a row to the Los Angeles Clippers.

But that's life for the Lakers, who tried to trade away Odom and Pau Gasol and in a deal for Chris Paul. David Stern banned the trade, and L.A. then sent an unhappy Odom to Dallas for basically nothing.

What the Lakers are left with is a frustrated Paul Gasol, an injured Kobe Bryant, and a suspended Andrew Bynum. Bryant will probably play on Sunday against the Bulls, but he tore ligaments in his right wrist during the preseason and is certainly less than 100 percent. Bynum is suspended for five games for last season's elbow to the Mavericks' J.J. Barea.

Oh yeah, and the Lakers also have someone named Metta World Peace on their team.

"I don't know what else could happen," new head coach Mike Brown said. "You see all the changes here and at times it can catch you off guard.... We still have a good opportunity to accomplish our ultimate goal at the end of the season, and that's why maybe I'm not in much of a panic mode as what some people may be around here. Let's let it play out."

Meanwhile, the Bulls are coming off a season in which they compiled an NBA-best 62-20 record and they appear to firing on all cylinders. Reigning MVP Derrick Rose averaged 12 points and seven assists in very limited minutes during two preseason victories and Carlos Boozer dropped 24 points in Chicago's second game against Indiana.

Pick: Bulls

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**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 01:10 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

UTEP vs. Auburn
The Miners look to take advantage of an Auburn team that is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. UTEP is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Miners favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25

Game 841-842: Southern Illinois vs. Xavier (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 50.507; Xavier 61.641
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 11; 125
Vegas Line: Xavier by 14; 127
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+14); Under

Game 843-844: Clemson vs. Hawaii (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 56.823; Hawaii 53.915
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 3; 130
Vegas Line: Clemson by 5; 127
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+5); Over

Game 845-846: UTEP vs. Auburn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 57.262; Auburn 52.906
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 4 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: UTEP by 1 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-1 1/2); Over

Game 847-848: Long Beach State vs. Kansas State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 69.430; Kansas State 66.960
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 2 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 1; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-1); Under

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, December 25

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S ILLINOIS (3 - 7) vs. XAVIER (8 - 3) - 12/25/2011, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ILLINOIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
S ILLINOIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEMSON (7 - 5) at HAWAII (6 - 5) - 12/25/2011, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
HAWAII is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UTEP (5 - 6) vs. AUBURN (8 - 2) - 12/25/2011, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AUBURN is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
UTEP is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UTEP is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LONG BEACH ST (7 - 5) vs. KANSAS (8 - 3) - 12/25/2011, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LONG BEACH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
LONG BEACH ST is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LONG BEACH ST is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 1-0 straight up against LONG BEACH ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, December 25

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College funds: Sunday's best NCAAB bets
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Long Beach State 49ers vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Long Beach State has played the toughest schedule in the nation thus far, and the 49ers will further test themselves on Christmas in the final of Honolulu's Diamond Head Classic.

Kansas State certainly qualifies as a difficult opponent. The Wildcats are 9-1 and their only loss came to West Virginia in double overtime on December 8. So far in this tournament they have disposed of both Southern Illinois and UTEP without too much trouble.

Freshman guard Angel Rodriguez is heating up for Kansas State. Rodriguez scored a game-high 16 points against UTEP in Friday's semifinals, including 11 in the second half. He also dropped 17 on Southern Illinois and scored 13 in a victory over Alabama last Saturday.

"I gained a little bit of confidence, and every day in practice it keeps growing and growing and growing," Rodriguez explained. "Finally, today I felt like I was playing how I play. Before, I didn't have much confidence. I felt kind of stuck, scared to take a shot, scared to make a pass, scared to make a mistake. But as time went on my confidence grew a lot."

Long Beach State has experience going up against the big boys, but they may not have enough if Rodriguez keeps this up.
“I gained a little bit of confidence, and every day in practice and in games it keeps growing and growing and growing,” Rodriguez said. “Finally, today I felt like I was playing how I play. Before, I didn’t have much confidence. I felt kind of stuck, scared to take a shot, scared to make a pass, scared to make a mistake. But as time went on my confidence grew a lot.”

Pick: Kansas State

Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Xavier Musketeers

Xavier entered the Diamond Head Classic as the No. 15 team in the nation, so it probably did not expect itself to be playing in the seventh-place game on Christmas.

Mainly because of the ugly brawl earlier this month against Cincinnati, however, that's exactly where the Musketeers find themselves. They are 0-3 since the melee, including 0-2 so far in Honolulu. Their first two post-fight setbacks came by double-digits and they lost to Hawaii in overtime on Friday.

"We struggled defensively in the second half," head coach Chris Mack said after losing to the Warriors. "We're struggling offensively. We got some open looks we didn't knock down. This was as disappointing a game for as long as I've been around."

The Salukis are struggling, too, but they did well to extend Clemson to overtime on Friday. Forward Mamadou Seck scored 18 points against the Tigers.

Pick: Southern Illinois

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**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 01:15 AM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 08:59 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, December 25

All eight teams in Diamond Head are playing third game in four days.

Xavier is 0-3 since getting players suspended after the Cincinnati game, but they do have starting guards back here; they blew 11-point halftime lead in OT loss to host Hawai'i Friday. Musketeers are 3-1 vs teams not in the top 150, winning by 11-23-6 points, but they're still thin inside. 3-7 Southern Illinois was outscored 26-11 on line in Friday's OT loss to Clemson; Tigers scored 21 points in 5:00 OT. Salukis are 0-3 vs teams in top 100, losing by 19-25-8 points.

7-5 Clemson needed OT to beat a bad Southern Illinois team Friday, as Tigers' bench combined to go 1-10 from floor in 50+ minutes of action. Clemson is 2-1 in true road games, winning at Citadel/Iowa, losing by 16 at Arizona; Tigers are 6-0 vs teams not in top 200, with all six wins by 8+ points. Hawai'i split pair of tough games this week, beating Xavier in OT after losing at buzzer to Auburn; Warriors turn ball over 23.6% of time, which could be problem against Xavier's terrific backcourt.

8-2 Auburn's only losses are to teams in top 60, when they were held to 59-43 points; take away Sullivan, and Tigers shot 7-41 in semifinal loss to Long Beach. #140 UTEP is coached by Floyd, who replaced Barbee when he jumped to Auburn. Miners are 2nd-youngest team in country, so not many of them played for Barbee. UTEP lost tough 78-70 game to K-State in semifinals; they were -15 on boards. Improving Miners have won three of their five games against teams not in the top 150.

9-1 Kansas State rebounds 41.3% of its own misses, #7 team in nation on offensive boards; they were +15 on boards in semifinal win. Wildcats have only one senior in rotation; they're 2-1 vs top 40 teams, losing in double OT to West Virginia, beating Va Tech/Alabama. Long Beach has #2 experienced team in country playing #3 schedule; this is already their 7th game against team in top 60. 49ers have five seniors and a junior in their 8-man rotation.

**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 09:00 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, December 25

NBA articles will start after the first of the year; have to give the teams a week or so to get their feet wet, especially since they haven't had lot of time to prepare for the season since the lockout ended.

**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 09:12 AM

NCAAB

Sunday, December 25

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Trend Report
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2:00 PM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS vs. XAVIER
No trends available
Xavier is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Xavier is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games

4:30 PM
CLEMSON vs. HAWAII
Clemson is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Clemson's last 7 games on the road
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Hawaii is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. AUBURN
No trends available
Auburn is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

10:00 PM
LONG BEACH STATE vs. KANSAS STATE
No trends available
Kansas State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

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Announcement

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 12/25 (NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

Sunday's Trends and Indexes - 12/25 (NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

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