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2* Seattle +2 over SF
You are probably wondering why an 11-3 team is only a 2 point favorite. The reason is that Vegas had to shade this down bc they know all the betting syndicates will jump on Seattle (and have bc the line started at 3). Seattle is hot right now (won and covered 3 in a row), and I think they continue it here. SF is coming off a huge win Monday and is on only 5 days rest. One of the best trends in my database favors Seattle and is 40-16 ATS based on Seattles recent wins.
1* Chicago +11.5 over GB
This is a value play. The weather is going to be terrible in GB and I like the big points here. There is a 75-32 ATS trend favoring Chi bc they were blownout last week. Also, there is a great middle opportunity even if you don't like the game. Take Chi +11.5 and if Seattle beats SF then GB locks up home field throughout and the line will go under 10, at that point you take GB and have a great middle set up.
2* Jax +7.5 over Tenn
Tenn doesn't deserve to be a TD fav vs the Jags with a good D. The Jags apply to a great 54-19 ATS trend due to their last game being a blowout loss.
2* NYG +3 over NY Jets
These teams are statistically similar, give me the 3 points on a shared home field. Dogs off SU loss as a 6 point fav or more (NYG) are 148-92 ATS...gimme the G Men.
Strong Opinions:
Detroit -2 over SD
The best trend in my database favors Detroit (19-2 ATS), but I'm not going to make them an official play bc SD is red hot.
You are probably wondering why an 11-3 team is only a 2 point favorite. The reason is that Vegas had to shade this down bc they know all the betting syndicates will jump on Seattle (and have bc the line started at 3). Seattle is hot right now (won and covered 3 in a row), and I think they continue it here. SF is coming off a huge win Monday and is on only 5 days rest. One of the best trends in my database favors Seattle and is 40-16 ATS based on Seattles recent wins.
1* Chicago +11.5 over GB
This is a value play. The weather is going to be terrible in GB and I like the big points here. There is a 75-32 ATS trend favoring Chi bc they were blownout last week. Also, there is a great middle opportunity even if you don't like the game. Take Chi +11.5 and if Seattle beats SF then GB locks up home field throughout and the line will go under 10, at that point you take GB and have a great middle set up.
2* Jax +7.5 over Tenn
Tenn doesn't deserve to be a TD fav vs the Jags with a good D. The Jags apply to a great 54-19 ATS trend due to their last game being a blowout loss.
2* NYG +3 over NY Jets
These teams are statistically similar, give me the 3 points on a shared home field. Dogs off SU loss as a 6 point fav or more (NYG) are 148-92 ATS...gimme the G Men.
Strong Opinions:
Detroit -2 over SD
The best trend in my database favors Detroit (19-2 ATS), but I'm not going to make them an official play bc SD is red hot.
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