Announcement

**Udog** · 12-21-2011, 10:41 AM

NFL odds: Week 16 opening line report

Leave it to Rex Ryan to hype a matchup of teams coming off embarrassing losses.

“I didn’t come here to be anybody’s little brother,” the Jets coach said of Saturday’s game vs. the Giants at their shared stadium.

“I came here to win, to be looked at that way and to take over not just this city, even though it’s the city to take over, but also this league. I haven’t accomplished that yet. Saturday, I think, will go a long way toward doing that.”

Ryan said his Jets, who imploded in Sunday’s 45-19 loss at Philly, were clearly superior to the Giants his first two years as coach.

“We made the playoffs, went to the championship game,” Ryan said. “To say that a team is better than you that never made the playoffs is ridiculous.”

Maybe Ryan’s bombast will motivate the G-Men. Nothing else seems to.

The Giants came out flat at home Sunday, losing 23-10 to Washington.

The Giants should be happy they’re technically the road team Saturday: Their own season-ticket holders can’t boo them.

Coughlin’s crew is 3-4 at home, 2-4-1 against the spread, compared to 4-3 SU and ATS on the road.

Oddsmakers opened the Jets as 3-point favorites. Playoff implications abound for both teams.

“You figure there’s no homefield advantage so it’s basically a true power number,” Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sports analyst for Caesars Entertainment, told ***********. “The Giants struggle when they play at MetLife Stadium. I’m willing to bet they’d rather travel.

“I can’t figure this team out,” he added. “It’s got to be leadership or coaching because every time they’re expected to win, they fall flat on their face.”

The Jets “beat themselves” with four turnovers Sunday, Fuhrman said, adding there may be some value in Gang Green.

MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback noted the Jets won three straight before the disaster in Philly.

“But the Giants, you can’t figure out what team is going to show up,” he said. “They throw in these stinkers, losing at home to the Redskins and losing at home to the Seahawks when Seattle wasn’t playing well.”

Lucky’s oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro said the Jets and Giants “went on a picnic somewhere Sunday – they didn’t show up. The Giants being so flat was incredible. I still think the Jets are the better team. Nothing spectacular, though.”

Vaccaro said he has no idea where this line will go.

“Who the hell knows with two dysfunctional teams?”

Giants-Jets and Eagles-Cowboys will draw the most action on Saturday’s 13-team card, oddsmakers said.

You can find Dallas anywhere from a 3- to a 1.5-point home favorite. Not only have the Eagles righted themselves, they’re somehow still alive in the NFC East.

“That’s a tough one,” said Stoneback, who opened Dallas at -2.5 (-120). “We’re going to give Philadelphia a little bit more credit. The sharps would come in on Philly if we opened at 3.”

Fuhrman, who opened Cowboys -2.5, called this line “one of the trickier numbers to set.”

“Right now the buzz around Philly is quite extensive and this is the healthiest they’ve been in some time,” he said. “You go back to what the Cowboys have done in big divisional games. They haven’t exactly been a good bet.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-15.5, 37.5), Cleveland at Baltimore (-13.5, 39), Miami at New England (-10, 48.5), Jacksonville at Tennessee (-9.5, 40)

The Rams-Steelers line hinges on Big Ben’s status.

Pop quiz: What are 38-24, 41-14 and 38-7? Scores of the last three Pats-Dolphins games, all easy New England covers.

SMALLEST SPREAD OF THE WEEK

Oakland at Kansas City (1, 42), San Diego at Detroit (-1.5, 50.5)

This line opened at K.C. -1 and immediately flipped to Oakland -1.

The Chiefs are on letdown alert after ending Green Bay’s perfect season. But it’s obvious players want interim coach Romeo Crennel to get the permanent gig; they’re going all out.

The Raiders are 5-2 ATS on the road.

San Diego has won and covered three straight after an 0-6 SU and ATS skid. The Chargers are 23-2 in December with Rivers starting.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Atlanta at New Orleans (-7, 53), Philadelphia at Dallas (-3, 50.5), San Diego at Detroit (-1.5, 50.5)

Drew Brees could break Dan Marino’s single-season passing yards record on Monday night. He’s 305 yards away -- a subpar game for him. Brees has thrown for at least 322 yards in five straight, with 16 TDs and no INTs.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-14.5, 37), Cleveland at Baltimore (-13.5, 39), Arizona at Cincinnati (-4.5, 40), Jacksonville at Tennessee (-9.5, 40), Houston at Indianapolis (6, 40.5)

Four of the last five Cleveland-Baltimore games have stayed under, including the Ravens’ 24-10 win three weeks ago. Baltimore ran 55 times for 290 yards and controlled the ball for more than 37 minutes.

The Jaguars have given up an average of 31 points the last three games. All easily sailed over.

**Udog** · 12-21-2011, 10:42 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Houston at Indianapolis
The Texans look to bounce back from their 28-13 loss to Carolina and build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Houston is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Texas favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 101-102: Houston at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 140.932; Indianapolis 123.175
Dunkel Line: Houston by 18; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2); Over

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24

Game 103-104: Oakland at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.672; Kansas City 134.201
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 42
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Under

Game 105-106: Denver at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 129.128; Buffalo 125.046
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1 1/2); Under

Game 107-108: Jacksonville at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.669; Tennessee 134.875
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 12; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-7 1/2); Over

Game 109-110: Arizona at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 130.814; Cincinnati 132.311
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Miami at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.935; New England 143.683
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: New England by 9 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9 1/2); Under

Game 113-114: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.245; Baltimore 141.201
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 42
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 13; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-13); Over

Game 115-116: NY Giants at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.451; NY Jets 131.334
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 42
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Under

Game 117-118: Minnesota at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.248; Washington 128.318
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 48
Vegas Line: Washington by 6 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Tampa Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 117.408; Carolina 137.242
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 20; 46
Vegas Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-7 1/2); Under

Game 121-122: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.328; Pittsburgh 137.191
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 18; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-15 1/2); Over

Game 123-124: San Diego at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.875; Detroit 133.727
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: San Francisco at Seattle (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 134.795; Seattle 138.624
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 41
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over

Game 127-128: Philadelphia at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 136.885; Dallas 133.912
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25

Game 129-130: Chicago at Green Bay (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 126.530; Green Bay 141.734
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 15; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13); Over

MONDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 131-132: Atlanta at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.297; New Orleans 144.029
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 53
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); Over

**Udog** · 12-21-2011, 10:42 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

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Thursday, December 22

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HOUSTON (10 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 13) - 12/22/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 24

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OAKLAND (7 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 8) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 34-63 ATS (-35.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-59 ATS (-38.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 6) at BUFFALO (5 - 9) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 39-66 ATS (-33.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BUFFALO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 10) at TENNESSEE (7 - 7) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (7 - 7) at CINCINNATI (8 - 6) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (5 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 3) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 143-107 ATS (+25.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MIAMI is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 10) at BALTIMORE (10 - 4) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (7 - 7) at NY JETS (8 - 6) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 12) at WASHINGTON (5 - 9) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 47-77 ATS (-37.7 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-35 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 10) at CAROLINA (5 - 9) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (2 - 12) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 4) - 12/24/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
ST LOUIS is 93-123 ATS (-42.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (7 - 7) at DETROIT (9 - 5) - 12/24/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (11 - 3) at SEATTLE (7 - 7) - 12/24/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (6 - 8) at DALLAS (8 - 6) - 12/24/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 146-107 ATS (+28.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 25

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CHICAGO (7 - 7) at GREEN BAY (13 - 1) - 12/25/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 26

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ATLANTA (9 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 3) - 12/26/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-45 ATS (-29.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-21-2011, 10:43 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Thursday, 12/22/2011

HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
HOUSTON: 8-1 Under as favorite
INDIANAPOLIS: 22-8 ATS revenging loss of 14+ points

Saturday, 12/24/2011

OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 8-0 ATS in division road games
KANSAS CITY: 10-2 Under L12 games

DENVER at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
DENVER: 11-2 ATS on Saturdays
BUFFALO: 1-8 ATS off division game

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 6-0 Under off road game
TENNESSEE: 6-0 Under second half of season

ARIZONA at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 0-6 ATS in December road games
CINCINNATI: 1-11 ATS as home favorite

MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 10-3 ATS as double digit loss
NEW ENGLAND: 26-10 ATS L2 wks of reg season

CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 2-8 ATS on grass
BALTIMORE: 7-0 ATS after allowing 400+ yds

NY GIANTS at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 10-2 ATS Away vs. AFC East
NY JETS: 24-9 Over in all games

MINNESOTA at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 16-4 Over after being outgained by 150+ total yards
WASHINGTON: 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 2-10 ATS on Saturday
CAROLINA: 11-1 Under as home favorite

ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM ET
ST LOUIS: 2-11-1 ATS this season
PITTSBURGH: 13-3 Over on Saturday

SAN DIEGO at DETROIT, 4:05 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 6-0 Over Away off home win
DETROIT: 0-4 ATS vs. San Diego

SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE, 4:15 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS in December road games
SEATTLE: 4-21 ATS off win by 21+

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 13-4 Under after scoring 40+
DALLAS: 4-15 ATS as favorite

Sunday, 12/25/2011

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY, 8:20 PM ET NBC
CHICAGO: 1-7 ATS off SU loss by 14+ as home favorite
GREEN BAY: 6-0 Under vs. Chicago

Monday, 12/26/2011

ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
ATLANTA: 14-5 ATS at New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS: 9-0 Under off BB road wins

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 12-21-2011, 10:44 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Texans (10-4) @ Colts (1-13)— Short week for both teams after Indy got monkey off back for first win; Colts covered last three games, are 2-4 as home dog. Texans already clinched AFC South, have rookie QB starting- they’ve won last four road games, scoring 29.5 ppg, but had 7-game win streak snapped by Carolina- they’re still without DC Phillips. Houston (-8.5) crushed Indy 34-7 in season opener, outrushing Colts 167-64 and running punt back for TD; Texans are 0-9 in franchise history here, but obviously Manning was QB in those games. Favorites are 5-3 vs spread in AFC South games this year. Four of last five Texan games, five of last seven Indy games stayed under total. Texans are 7-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 3-0 on road, with road wins by 10-34-28-1-7 points.

Raiders (7-7) @ Chiefs (5-9)— KC played with renewed enthusiasm in upset of Packers, with Orton winning his first Chief start; now archrival Raiders visit, having won last four visits here, allowing 11.3 ppg. Chiefs (+4) shut Raiders out 28-0 in Week 7 at Oakland, scoring two defensive TDs, one on second play of game; KC had six INTs, three against Palmer when he made Raider debut in second half. That game was one of only four games in NFL all year where losing side didn’t score TD or attempt FG. Oakland blew 13-point lead with 7:37 left Sunday for third loss in row, allowing Stafford to drive 98 yards for winning score, after tactical error kept lead at 13, instead of going for 2 and trying for 14-point lead after last TD. Fifth road game in seven weeks for Raider squad that lost last two away games, 34-14/46-16 (outscored 44-0 in first half).

Broncos (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)— Denver still holds its AFC West destiny in own hands; Broncos had 6-game win streak snapped by Patriots, but Tebow is 5-0 in road starts, winning last two by FG each, at Chargers/Vikings. Buffalo is in total freefall, losing last seven games (1-6 vs spread), with five of the seven by 10+ points; they were 0-11 on 3rd down vs Miami, allowed Fish to run for 254 yards 202 by Reggie Bush. Denver won last three visits here by 2-1-11 points, as visitor won four of last five series games. Broncos’ last loss here was in ’94. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for Denver. Bills lost last three home games by 16-6-7 points; they won first three home games, then beat Redskins in “home” game in Toronto, but haven’t won back in Orchard Park since then. Buffalo has lost field position by 8+ yards in six of last seven games.

Jaguars (4-10) @ Titans (7-7)—Hideous loss at Indy last week damaged Titans’ playoff chances, almost as much as when Jags (-3) beat Tennessee 16-14 in season opener, outrushing Titans 163-43, converting 8 of 11 on 3rd down. Tennessee ran ball for 59-66 yards in last two games; hard to describe how listless they looked in indy loss, when win would have them in playoff spot had season ended today. Jags are 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 29-6-4-4-27 points. Titans are 2-4 as favorite this year, 2-3 at home, winning in Nashville by 13-3-17-6 points, with losses to Texans-Bengals-Saints. Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven visits here, but haven’t swept Titans since ’05. Jax has three extra days to prep here after dismal Thursday night loss in Atlanta. Legit question for Titans: Should they be giving QB of future Locker experience in last two games?

Cardinals (7-7) @ Bengals (8-6)— Cruel of schedule maker to put dome-loving Redbirds in cold weather site on Christmas Eve, but Arizona has won six of last seven games, with three of those wins in OT and other three by 4 or less points, as young QB Skelton/dynamic punt returner Peterson have done just enough to win these close games. Bengals are 2-4 in last six games, with wins vs doormats Browns/Rams; Cincy is 2-3-1 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home, and only cover was on defensive TD late in Indy game- they’re 3-3 SU at home, winning by 3-10-3 points. Home team won eight of nine series games, with Cardinals winning last visit here 35-27 in ’07, their only win in six visits to Cincy. NFC West road underdogs are 10-7-1 in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 6-8-1. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bengal games, 1-4-2 in Arizona’s last seven games.

Dolphins (5-9) @ Patriots (11-3)— Miami is 5-2 since 0-7 start; no matter who next coach is, he doesn’t need a QB, as Moore has proven to be capable leader. Dolphins ran ball for 254 yards Sunday, second time in three weeks they topped 200 mark, bad news for Patriot defense that allowed Denver 252 rushing yards in 41-23 win in Mile High City (+3 turnover ratio led to 24-yard edge in field position for Pats). New England (-7) won first meeting 38-24 in season opener at Miami, as Brady passed for 516 yards (10.5 ypa); Patriots are 3-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 14-9-4-31-7 points- they’re 2-5 vs spread this year when laying more than 7. Miami is 5-2 as a road dog this season. Five of last six Patriot games went over total; under is 9-2-1 in Miami’s last dozen, but first game without Sparano went over. Miami lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 10-21-10-31 points.

Browns (4-10) @ Ravens (10-4)— Cleveland is 1-7 in last eight visits here, losing last three by 18-31-7 points; Baltimore (-7) won first meeting 24-10 on Lake Erie three weeks ago, outrushing Browns 290-59 and getting PR for TD; Flacco completed just 10-23 passes in game where Ravens outgained hosts 448-233. Four of last six Cleveland games were decided by 4 or less points; Browns are 2-3 as road underdog this year, losing last five road games by 7-10-18-3-11 points. Ravens are 4-2-1 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 28-17-15-3-7-10-14 points. Under is 4-1-1 in last seven Cleveland games, 3-1 in Ravens’ last four. Home teams are 2-6-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games, with over 5-3-1 in those games. Ravens have five sacks in their four losses, 40 in their ten wins.

Giants (7-7) @ Jets (8-6)— This is Jet home game, but teams share stadium, so in reality home game #9 for Giant club that lost five of last six games, and fizzled out Sunday as soon as Nicks dropped sure TD pass on first series vs Redskins. Giant defense allowed average of 36 ppg last four weeks, allowing foes to convert 32 of last 63 (5x.x%) 3rd down plays. Jets are 6-1 at home this year, with only loss to Patriots; they’re 4-3 as home favorites, but anytime a contending team trails 28-0 after 20:03 of play in a game they need to win, red flags are raised. Both Jersey teams stunk last week, but Jets lucked out when Titans/Raiders also lost, so they’re still #6 AFC team. Last four Jet games, three of last four Giant games went over total. Giants are 7-4 in once-every-four years-rivalry, winning last four by 7-13-3-11 points, with average total in last three, 62.3.

Vikings (2-12) @ Redskins (5-9)— Minnesota is 2-12 despite leading four games this year by 8+ points at half (lost all four); they’re 3-2-1 as road dogs this season, losing away games by 7-5-24-38-10-6 points, with a win at Carolina. Vikings allowed 35-34-42 points in last three games (11 TDs on 35 drives). Skins covered four of last five games (2-2 in last four SU); they’re favored here for first time since Week 4. Washington lost last five home games since winning first two, by 1-14 points. Vikings won three of last fur visits here; three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points. Four of last five Washington games, seven of last nine Viking games went over the total. NFC East home favorites are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC road underdogs are 5-3-1.

Buccaneers (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)— Carolina won three of last four games, scoring 29 ppg; they’re 3-2 as a favorite this year, with four of five wins by 8+ points. Tampa Bay was 4-2 when they went to London to play Bears in October; they’re 1-7 vs spread in last eight games since, with only cover a 35-26 loss at Lambeau; Carolina (+3.5) came to Tampa and whacked Bucs 38-19 three weeks ago, outrushing hosts 163-78, averaging 9.3 ypa and scoring five TDs on nine drives. Buccaneers are 3-6 as dog this year, 2-4 on road, losing true road games by 45-11-9-6-27 points. Home teams are 7-2 vs spread in NFC South games, 5-2 if favored. Rarely a good idea to back bad team coming off national TV game; they usually empty their bucket in front of big TV audience. Bucs have led one game at halftime this year, Week 3 against Atlanta.

Rams (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4)— Monday night loss puts Pitt behind 8-ball for division title and first round bye; Big Ben’s ankle is in bad shape, not sure what tack they take here vs pathetic Ram squad (0-11-1 vs spread in 12 losses) with #3 QB Clemens at helm. St Louis is 1-6 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 12-21-27-6-26-17 points, with win at Cleveland when the Browns botched snap on 21-yard GW FG in last 1:30. Pitt only allowed three offensive TDs in last four games (40 drives), one on 17-yard drive at SF after a turnover- they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 24-21-4-8-28-11 points, with costly loss to Ravens. NFC West road underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 6-8-1. Under is 8-3 in Rams’ last 11 games, 4-1-1 in Steelers’ last six.

Chargers (7-7) @ Lions (9-5)— Detroit can wrap playoff spot with win after dramatic 98-yard drive in final minutes gave them a key win at Oakland last week; Lions are 2-3 in last five home games, 4-5 vs spread as favorite, 3-3 at home, with home wins by 45-11-14-6 points. San Diego won its last three games, scoring 38-37-34 points (13 TDs on 27 drives); after turning ball over 24 times in first 10 games, Chargers have just one turnover in last four games- their win last week was first cover in five tries as an underdog this year. AFC West road underdogs are 5-9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North favorites are 12-13, 8-8 at home. Five of last seven Detroit games, five of San Diego’s six road games went over total. Lions are 9-0 when they score 24+ points, 0-5 when they don’t Bolts held last four foes to average of 13.5 ppg.

49ers (11-3) @ Seahawks (7-7)—49ers still playing to hold off Saints for #2 seed and first-round bye in playoffs; they started season with 33-17 win (-5.5) over Seattle, breaking game open with pair of special teams TDs in last 5:00. Niners are +25 in turnovers; they’ve started 31 drives in enemy territory, their opponents six (none since Week 3). Seattle won five of last six games, covered six of last seven- they’re 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten games as underdog. Home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in NFC divisional games, 2-0 in NFC West. Under is 5-3-1 in NFC West divisional games. 49ers have won field position battle by 13+ yards in six of last seven games. Under is 4-0-1 in Niners’ last five games, 0-4 in Seattle’s last four. Seahawks have three TDs on defense, one on special teams, eight on offense in their last three games, scoring 33 ppg.

Bears (7-7) @ Packers (13-1)—Now that Packers have a loss and already clinched home field thru NFC playoffs, not sure how much regulars play here; they won 27-17 at Chicago (-3.5) in Week 3, holding Bears to 13 rushing yards while forcing six 3/outs on 13 drives. Green Bay is 5-1 as home favorite this year, winning by 8-26-21-38-9-30 points. Punchless Bears lost last four games, by 5-7-3-24 points; they were held under 100 passing yards (88-86-89) in last three. Chicago is 2-3 as road dog this season, losing on foreign soil by 17-11-5-3 points- they scored total of 21 points in losing last three visits here by 34-6-7 points. Home favorites are 3-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games; over is 5-3 in NFC North games this year. Over is 5-2 in last seven Chicago games, 6-2 in Packers’ last eight games.

Eagles (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)—Philly stays alive by winning here, and if Jets beat Giants; Iggles (-3.5) hammered Dallas 34-7 (at home in Week 8, outrushing Pokes 239-95, outgaining them 495-267. Philly won here 30-27 LY, their first win in last four visits- they haven’t swept Dallas since ‘06. Nine of 14 Dallas games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT; they’re 2-5 as home favorite this year, with only covers vs Rams/Bills. Eagles won 26-10/45-19 in two games since Vick returned from injury, scoring eight TDs on 27 drives, with three of the eight TD drives starting in enemy territory, thanks to seven takeaways. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games (under 6-3), 5-1 on road. If Giants beat Jets, Eagles are eliminated, but game becomes meaningless for Dallas, instead setting up winner-take-all tilt in Swamp Stadium next week.

Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3)—New Orleans (even) won 26-23 at Atlanta in OT six weeks ago, when Falcons went for it on 4th-and-1 on own 29 in OT but failed, after rallying from 10 down in last 5:00 to tie game- it was fifth win in last six series meetings for NO. Atlanta won here 27-24 in OT LY, snapping 6-game skid in Superdome, with losses by 3-13-20-6-4-8 points (they beat Saints in Alamodome in ’05, after Hurricane Katrina). Falcons are 2-2 as underdog this year; this is first time they’re getting points since Week 7 win at Detroit. Teams that beat Saints this year scored 42-26-31 points. WhoDats won and covered their last six games- they’re 6-0 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 17-7-55-11-25-14 points (average score, 40-18). Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total.

**Udog** · 12-21-2011, 10:45 AM

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 22

8:20 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Indianapolis is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Houston

Saturday, December 24

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. CINCINNATI
Arizona is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Carolina is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games at home
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DETROIT
San Diego is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DALLAS
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 13 games on the road
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

Sunday, December 25

8:20 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games

Monday, December 26

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-19-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

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**Udog** · 12-22-2011, 01:18 AM

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 16 betting notes

It took 15 weeks, but we finally have a loss for the Packers and a win for the Colts. How will things play out in Week 16, with so many teams’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance? Let’s check in with the NFL poolies cheat sheet:

Houston (-6) at Indianapolis

Why Texans cover: Despite their upset home loss to Carolina last week, the Texans still have shot at No. 1 or 2 seed in AFC playoffs, so there’s plenty of incentive. Plus, Houston has spent its existence as a whipping boy for Indy in the AFC South, so this team should relish the opportunity to take it to the Colts twice in the same season – the Texans rolled 34-7 in Week 1 at home. Gary Kubiak’s crew was on run of 7-0 straight-up (SU) and 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) before last week’s setback.

Why Colts cover: They’re dripping with confidence after breaking through for first SU win of season, 27-13 over visiting Tennessee as a 6.5-point pup last week. Indy has cashed five straight in December and is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine Thursday starts.

Total (40): The over is 10-3 in the last 13 in this rivalry, but keep in mind that was usually with Peyton Manning playing for the Colts and Matt Schaub playing for the Texans. The under is 6-1 in Indy’s last seven overall.

Oakland at Kansas City (-1)

Why Raiders cover: This team is on a three-game SU slide, yet still has a chance to win the AFC Worst, er, West. The road team in this classic rivalry has been a great bet at 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 clashes. The Raiders have covered in their last five trips to K.C. (4-1 SU).

Why Chiefs cover: Hey, these guys just beat the previously-unbeaten Packers. K.C. has covered three of its last four and Oakland is just 16-35-1 ATS in its last 52 vs. losing teams.

Total (42): Total has over in five straight for the Raiders, but the Chiefs are riding under stretches of 8-1 overall and 6-0 at Arrowhead. The under is 6-1 overall in this rivalry and is 5-1 in the last six in K.C.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Not easy to make a case for these guys. After they beat Tampa Bay 41-14 two weeks ago, they lost by that same score last week at Atlanta. Who knows what you’ll get? Maybe the Jags are catching the Titans at the right time – Tennessee has dropped last two SU and ATS.

Why Titans cover: If they want to prove themselves playoff worthy, they’ve got to drub bad opponents – something they didn’t do in losing to previously-winless Indianapolis last week. But Tennessee has normally been sound vs. sub-.500 teams, covering five straight before last week’s toe-stubbing.

Total (40): Tennessee’s on a huge under tear, playing below the number in eight straight. Jacksonville averages just 14.8 ppg (29th), and the under has hit in six of its last seven roadies. The under is also on 4-0 stretch in this AFC South rivalry.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-9)

Why Buccaneers cover: This team went 10-6 last year and maybe that unit will show up for an NFC South rivalry game. The Bucs are getting 9 points against a 5-9 team, which is pretty unusual. Tampa is also a solid road pup, at 11-3 ATS in the last 14 in that role.

Why Panthers cover: This is not your ordinary 5-9 team. QB Cam Newton’s likely on his way to Rookie of the Year honors and Carolina just knocked off the red-hot Texans on the road to win and cover for the third time in four weeks. The Panthers improved to 16-6 ATS in their last 22 December outings. Three weeks ago in Tampa, the Panthers rolled 38-19.

Total (47.5): The under is on runs of 19-7 with Panthers favored, 4-1 in division play for the Bucs and 6-1 in the last seven Panthers-Bucs meetings in Carolina.

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets (-3)

Why Giants cover: It’s a battle for New York, with both teams fighting for their playoff lives. If push comes to shove at QB, Eli Manning gets the nod over Mark Sanchez. The G-Men are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday affairs. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU loss.

Why Jets cover: They can’t afford another embarrassing performance against the NFC East after getting drubbed in Philadelphia last week. Gang Green has covered in their last four Saturday starts.

Total (45.5): Both of these teams are on a boatload of over streaks. The Giants are on 4-0 over runs as an underdog. The Jets have played over to a tune of 24-8 overall, 5-0 in December, 4-0 at home and 9-3 after a SU loss.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-15.5)

Why Rams cover: Seriously? If Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is as immobile this week as he was last week, perhaps the Rams can stick around since 15.5 is a lot. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. losing teams.

Why Steelers cover: Because the Rams are the worst team in the league at the betting window, at 2-11-1 ATS this year. St. Louis is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine roadies. Mike Tomlin’s troops are a solid bounce-back bet, with streaks of 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS off a non-cover.

Total (37.5): The Rams average a league-low 11.9 ppg. The Steelers’ defense is No. 2 in NFL, allowing just 15.6 ppg. The under is on runs of 8-3 overall for the Rams, 4-0 overall for the Steelers and 4-1 in the Steel City.

Denver (-1.5) at Buffalo

Why Broncos cover: They lost convincingly to New England, but they still have Tim Tebow playing on Christmas Eve of all days. The Fighting Tebows have won and covered their last five roadies, though only one was from the favorite’s role. Denver’s superb on Saturdays (9-0 ATS in the last nine). Buffalo is in a total downward spiral, losing seven in a row while covering just once.

Why Bills cover: Not much positive to say about Buffalo, but Denver is 7-15 ATS in December, 15-35-1 ATS when laying points, and 8-22-1 ATS against losing teams.

Total (41): Most trends point to the over – 10-2 in Denver’s last 12 as chalk, 10-3 in the Broncos’ last 13 in December, 10-4-1 in Buffalo’s last 15 overall, and 8-1-1 in Bills’ last 10 when getting points.

Minnesota at Washington (-6.5)

Why Vikings cover: Adrian Peterson got a light workload last week (10 carries) as he returned from ankle sprain in a blowout loss to the Saints. He should be rested and ready to shoulder much bigger load this week. The ‘Skins are on a 0-7 ATS dive as home favorites.

Why Redskins cover: They’re on a 4-1 ATS upswing and just put a huge dent in the Giants’ playoff hopes with a 23-10 road victory while catching 5.5 points. The Vikes are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 as a pup.

Total (44): The over has hit in five of the Vikings’ last six and four of the ‘Skins last five.

Arizona at Cincinnati (-4)

Why Cardinals cover: They own streaks of 6-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as they’ve moved into playoff contention. The only issue is whether Kevin Kolb (concussion) returns as the starter, and with the way John Skelton has played in relief, the Cards might not want Kolb back right now. The Cards are 8-1 ATS in their last nine on Saturday and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. The Bengals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 when laying points.

Why Bengals cover: Still very much in playoff hunt and perhaps long overdue for a cover after going 0-4-2 at the betting window in the last six weeks. Cincy is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU win.

Total (40.5): Cincy has played over in eight of its last 11 overall and five in a row at home.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)

Why Browns cover: They’ve only cashed five times all season, but four of those have come in the past five weeks. The Ravens often play down to level of competition, going 1-5 ATS in their last six against losing teams. The road team has covered in the last four in this AFC North rivalry.

Why Ravens cover: They remain in pursuit of a first-round playoff bye and they’ve got plenty to prove after getting plastered on national TV last week at San Diego. Baltimore rolled 24-10 laying 7 points three weeks ago in Cleveland, moving to 6-1 ATS in the last seven vs. the Browns.

Total (38.5): Cleveland’s averaging a meager 13.9 ppg (30th) and has the under on streaks of 4-1-1 overall and 8-3-1 when getting points. The under is also 4-1 in the last four Cleveland-Baltimore clashes. On the flip side, Baltimore is on over runs of 7-0 off a SU loss and 5-0 off an ATS setback.

Miami at New England (-9.5)

Why Dolphins cover: They’ve been on fire against the number lately, cashing seven of last eight, including road win at Buffalo last week. The Fish are 5-0 ATS vs. winning teams and 21-8-1 on the highway. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Dolphins-Patriots contests.

Why Patriots cover: They own the Dolphins lately, winning and cashing in the last three clashes by double digits, including 38-24 victory in the season opener when laying 7 points. The Pats rumbled 38-7 as a 4-point favorite in Week 17 last year in Foxborough.

Total (48.5): Miami has played under to a clip of 10-2-1 overall, 8-0 as a pup, and 21-7 in roadies. New England has played over to a tune of 25-8 overall, 12-4 at home, and 10-1 in AFC East affairs.

San Diego at Detroit (-1.5)

Why Chargers cover: Because as bad a coach as Norv Turner is, somehow this team always turns it on in December. With Philip Rivers at the QB helm, Bolts have gone 23-2 SU in the last 25 December games. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this December, all in blowout fashion. The Chargers also on underdog ATS runs of 23-9-3 overall and 18-8-3 on road.

Why Lions cover: They’re on the brink of their first playoff berth in forever. OK, it’s only been since 1999, but that’s a long time. Detroit is 7-3-2 ATS in its last dozen when laying points. San Diego is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight on highway.

Total (52.5): These two offenses are among best in league with Detroit fourth at 28.2 ppg and San Diego fifth at 25.6. The over is 31-12-4 in the Bolts’ last 47 on road.

San Francisco (-1) at Seattle

Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the league is better than 49ers against the number. They’re 11-2-1 ATS in a season that began with a 33-17 home win over the Seahawks as a 6-point chalk. Jim Harbaugh’s troops, pursuing at least the No. 2 seed in NFC, are also a red-hot favorite at 11-1 ATS in their last 12 in that role. The Seahawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. winning teams.

Why Seahawks cover: This team still has a chance to make the playoffs and would love nothing more than to ding a division rival while remaining in wild-card contention. And with Marshawn Lynch going off lately (five 100-yard games in last seven outings, with eight TDs), the Seahawks certainly look worthy. Seattle is 6-1 ATS in the last seven and has posted three straight double-digit wins. The home team in this rivalry on 5-0 ATS run.

Total (38): Niners have league’s No. 1 scoring defense, yielding 13.2 ppg. That has the under going 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five and 8-3-1 with the Niners set as a road favorite. But Seattle’s on slew of over streaks, including 19-7 overall, 8-0 in December, and 12-3-1 at home.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-1)

Why Eagles cover: Just look at that line. It’s clear bookmakers have little faith in Dallas (1-4 ATS in the last five), even on its home field. Philly somehow still has a shot at playoffs and is coming off pair of double-digit SU and ATS wins. The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in the last eight at home and 3-10 ATS in the last 13 when laying points in Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Big revenge spot, after getting belted 34-7 at Philly on Oct. 30. Prior to that, the Cowboys had cashed five in a row in this NFC East rivalry (4-1 SU). The home team has covered four of the last five Eagles-Cowboys contests.

Total (50.5): Over is 10-3 in the Eagles’ last 13 roadies and 12-4 in the Cowboys’ last 16 at home.

Chicago at Green Bay (-13)

Why Bears cover: Coach Lovie Smith will give fans a gift on Christmas Day by benching ineffective backup Caleb Hanie in favor of third-stringer Josh McCown. It can’t hurt, with Bears having lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) since Jay Cutler’s thumb injury. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this NFC North rivalry.

Why Packers cover: After dismal performance at Kansas City, where they suffered their first loss in more than a year, the Packers should be plenty motivated to get back on track and secure home field throughout playoffs. Green Bay’s a solid bounce-back bet, with ATS runs of 8-0 off a non-cover and 4-0 off a SU loss.

Total (44.5): Bears have mixed bag of over and under trends, while Packers are on over surges of 6-2 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, and 6-1 at Lambeau. But in this rivalry, the under has cashed eight straight times overall and four of the last five on Frozen Tundra.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)

Why Falcons cover: They’ve got more to play for than Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot. An upset win would secure a postseason berth for Atlanta. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in December. The trends in this NFC South rivalry point to Falcons: Atlanta 11-5 ATS in the last 16 vs. New Orleans, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, and the underdog has cashed five in a row.

Why Saints cover: They are the hottest team going right now, winning and covering six in a row and seven of their last eight, with five double-digit victories and a win and cover on road against Atlanta in overtime. Sean Payton’s troops have covered their last six at home and are on a 5-0 ATS run as favorites.

Total (53): The over is 6-2 in the Saints’ last eight on Mondays. However, despite two of league’s best offenses (Saints 32.6 ppg, Falcons 24.4 ppg), several under trends are in play. The Falcons are on under runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 vs. winning teams. The Saints sport under streaks of 13-3 inside NFC South and 5-1 vs. winning teams.

**Udog** · 12-22-2011, 01:21 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 22

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Thursday Night Football: Texans at Colts
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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+5.5, 40)

THE STORY: Since the Houston Texans entered the league in 2002, the road to the AFC South title has typically gone through Indianapolis. That script has finally changed this season for Houston, which has already wrapped up the division title and would like to use Thursday night's visit to the Colts as a steppingstone to even loftier goals. The Texans are still in the hunt for one of the top two seeds and a first-round bye in the playoffs, but they'll need to end a major hex by winning in Indianapolis for the first time. The Colts finally got in the win column last week with a 27-13 victory over Tennessee.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Texans opened as high as 6.5-point favorites and have dropped to -5.5. The total

ABOUT THE TEXANS (10-4, 9-4-1 ATS): Houston had its seven-game winning streak snapped at home by Carolina, a loss that cost the Texans a chance to move ahead of Baltimore. WR Andre Johnson (hamstring) will sit out his third straight game, so expect rookie QB T.J. Yates to hand off liberally to RBs Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Foster has rushed for 333 yards and two TDs in two games vs. the Colts, and Tate went for 116 yards and a TD in a season-opening 34-7 win over the Colts. Yates was intercepted twice last week.

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-13, 5-9-0 ATS): Indianapolis has yielded an AFC-worst 395 points, but its defense came through with the decisive play to snap its 13-game skid when Jacob Lacey returned an interception for a touchdown against the Titans. It marked only the second time that the Colts have held an opponent under 20 points. QB Dan Orlovsky threw for only 87 yards and the Colts managed just 10 first downs, but Donald Brown rambled for a career-high 161 yards, including a clinching 80-yard touchdown run. Brown has a TD in three of his last four games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Foster rushed for a franchise-record 231 yards against the Colts in Week 1 of the 2010 season.

2. Colts DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have 15.5 and 12.2 sacks, respectively, against the Texans – their most vs. any opponent.

3. Houston is 0-9 all time in Indy, but is 4-0 against the AFC South this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Indianapolis.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

PREDICTION: Texans 20, Colts 17. Houston hammers away with its ground game and survives a close call to win in Indy for the first time.

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**Udog** · 12-22-2011, 01:24 AM

NFL

Thursday, December 22

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Tale of the tape: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
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Tale of the tape: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (6.5, 40)

Offense

Indy’s ranks 31st in total offense, producing just over 283 total yards per game. That’s translating to just 15.1 points per game. On the plus side, wideout Pierre Garcon is 125 receiving yards away from a 1,000-yard season and the Colts are averaging 4.4 yards per run (10th in the league). Quarterback Dan Orlovsky is set to make his fourth consecutive start and is completing 64.3 percent of his passes while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt.

Arian Foster continues to pace Houston’s attack, leading the league by averaging 138.9 yards from scrimmage per game. The Texans sit second in the NFL with 151.8 rushing yards per game and rank eighth in average points per contest at 24.5. With wideout Andre Johnson out again and tight end Owen Daniels questionable, Jacoby Jones could be the team’s top receiving threat this week. He’s averaging 17.3 yards per catch. Quarterback T.J. Yates is completing only 57 percent of his passes with Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart on the shelf.

Edge: Texans

Defense

Houston’s defense ranks second in total defense (277.9 ypg) and passing defense (181.1 ypg) and gives up only 16.9 points per contest (fourth). Jonathan Joseph and Jason Allen are tied for the team lead with four interceptions apiece while Connor Barwin tops the club with 10.5 sacks. Houston ranks second in the AFC with 25 takeaways, three fewer than New England.

Indianapolis has been getting gashed all season. The Colts allow 385.4 total yards per game (29th) and allow 28.2 points per contest (30th). They normally yield about 138 yards per game on the ground, but did manage to hold the Titans to 55 rushing yards in last week’s win. However, they did give up 322 passing yards in the victory. Veteran ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for 14 sacks on the year, but Indy has forced just 15 turnovers all year.

Special teams

The Texans average 24.6 yards per kickoff and Jacoby Jones already returned a kick back to the house against Indy in the first meeting between these two teams. Houston’s Neil Rackers has hit 26 of his 32 field goal attempts with a long of 54, while Indy’s Adam Vinatieri has hit 17 of his 20 attempts with a long of 53 yards. Indy ranks 31st in the league allowing 31.5 yards per kick return and 32nd in kick returns (19.7 yards).

Edge: Texans.

Word on the street

“It is a wake-up call, and it’s up to us as leaders to let our team know what exactly this game is. I wouldn’t say it has to happen, but if it does happen, it’s needed for you to be battle-tested in a situation like this, for us to grow as a team. You got to take your (knocks). You got to take your hits on the chin.” – Houston Texans defensive end Antonio Smith.

“I'm excited for those guys. I'm happy for them, but I think they all understand the competitor that I am and when Thursday night comes and we step on the field, just like they would say, we're going to go out and compete against each other.” – Indy quarterback Dan Orlovsky on facing his former team Thursday.

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**Udog** · 12-23-2011, 09:14 PM

Where the action is: NFL Week 16 line moves

‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the book, the odds started moving from the sharp bets they took.

The oddsmakers ran to the board with fright, making sure the Week 16 numbers were right.

They adjusted and tinkered with all of their wits, it’s time to find out where all the action is.

We called Craig Sasamura, sportsbook supervisor at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, to get the scoop on the biggest line moves heading into the Xmas weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans - Open: -9.5, Move -7

Losing to the Colts apparently doesn’t sit well with NFL bettors. The Titans have dropped from 9.5-point faves to -7 against the lowly Jaguars. Sharps have come back a bit on Tennessee, buying back the chalk at -7.5.

“I think we’ll stay on the high side of a touchdown,” says Sasamura. “With this being a non-attractive game it’s better for us to play it safe with the hook at 7.5.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: Pick Move: -2.5

Defeating the best team in the NFL can have an amazing impact on your odds. The Chiefs, fresh off their win over the Packers, look like the hot pick. Sharps have come in hard on Kansas City, which seems to be fighting for interim coach Romeo Crennel and still has an outside shot at the playoffs.

“A change in leadership can sometimes spark a team, and that’s what we saw last week,” says Sasamura. “This is also a big rivalry game in the division.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -3, Move -1

Bettors recall the Eagles thumping the Cowboys in Week 8, winning 34-7 as 3-point underdogs at home. Philadelphia has looked like that team the past two weeks, earning big wins over the Jets and Dolphins, and the money is buying into “The Dream Team” in Week 16. Sasamura says the number could go to a pick, but expects instant buyback on Dallas if so.

“Philadelphia could be the hottest team in the NFL right now,” says Sasamura. “And, there’s always the Tony Romo factor. The guy’s been great but these are the types of games that bring out his worst.”

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: +3, Move: +1

Sharp money has been all over the home side, banking on the Niners' short week following their blowout of Pittsburgh on Monday night and the fact that San Francisco enters one of the NFL's toughest home fields. Seattle is 5-2 ATS at home.

“I don’t see this going back up to three,” says Sasamura. “Pete Carroll tends to get the best out of his players at the end of the season.”

*Christmas bonus line move: Hawaii Bowl

Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles – Open: -6, Move: -8.5

Constant action on Southern Miss has moved the spread past the key number of a touchdown, to -8.5. Sasamura says it’s been nothing but sharp money on the favorite.

He also notes the 8 p.m. ET start time could have a major impact on how the line moves closer to kickoff. With all the NFL games in the bag, the lone college bowl game could become a lot of bettors “get even” game.

Keep a close eye on how favorites/underdogs do during the NFL slate. The public could come in heavy on the chalk in the Hawaii Bowl.

**Udog** · 12-23-2011, 09:21 PM

NFL

Week 16

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NFL Total Bias: Week 16's best over/under bets
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Backdoor bad beats. Roughing the passer penalties. Ron Jaworski. These are the things that can make a football bettor’s blood boil.

You may find yourself a little on edge lately. With the sounds of the season ringing in your ears for the better part of two months, it’s really no surprise that you’re waking up in the middle of the night, soaked in a cold sweat with a Michael Buble holiday tune stuck in your head.

It’s not your fault - it gets the best of all of us.

Your only real salvation is your couch and your remote control, tucked deep inside your man cave. There, everything is supposed to be right in the world. It’s your escape to the land of pigskin and pointspreads. It’s your safe place.

But we all know it doesn’t work like that. The sweet solitude in that cave never lasts long, always interrupted by some sort of foolish family member at the two-minute warning in a tie game.

It’s no wonder that you start mentally putting together your Christmas Coal list in October. The only problem is, this isn’t the mid-19th century, so instead of coal you’ll probably just grab a bunch of chocolates from the reduced bid and stick a bow on them.

I take it to another level. While there’s no doubt I’ll be handing out my fair share of terrible gifts this weekend, I also like to bring our NFL brothers into the mix.

They’ve been responsible for a significant amount of frustration over the past four months, so with that, I present the 2011 NFL Christmas Coal Awards.

Turn up the lights award – San Francisco 49ers

Coal was the fuel of the Industrial Revolution, spawning massing technological advancements beginning in the 18th century. Now, Candlestick Park is one of the oldest NFL stadiums still in use, so you’d think they would have figured out this electricity thing by now.

After Monday’s power failure, maybe a truckload of coal would do the Niners good, who still have an outside chance at home-field advantage in the playoffs. Regardless, is there a better bet on the board right now than San Fran +1,400 to win the Super Bowl?

Put ‘em on ice award - Jason Garret, Dallas Cowboys

You could make an argument that head coach Jason Garrett has cost the Dallas Cowboys as many as five wins this season. He was ripped for his play-calling in falling to the Jets, Pats, and Lions and couldn’t seem to figure out how to manage the clock against the Giants. And then there’s the loss to Arizona when he iced his own kicker. Time to Cowboy up with that chopping block, Jerry.

Every day we hustlin’ award – Sam Hurd

Just imagine if Sam Hurd put as much time and effort into football as he did pushing weight. We’d be sending him to Hawaii every year. But the reality is he was busted trying to buy 10 kilos of coke and a whack of weed. If you loved MLB’s steroid witch hunt, buckle up because Hurd apparently dealt to a pile of NFL players. Shockingly, he denies everything.

Equally as shocking: The Chicago Bears have released Sam Hurd.

The it’s not you, it’s me award – Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

This has nothing to do with Jay Cutler’s play on the field, but his complete lack of game off it. Cutler looks like he just crawled out of a ditch every Sunday and somehow managed to get rocket Kristin Cavallari to take him back after he dumped her the first time around. I guess he deserves props for that, but you just wait, he’ll screw it up again… just like his stupid broken thumb ruined Chicago’s season.

Excessive celebration award – Tim Tebow

Tebow Mania is getting a little excessive, no? I don’t know about you, but I sure can’t wait to hear Tebow thank the Jesus for everything after he gets buried by the Bills in Buffalo this week.

You’re a turkey award - Ndamukong Suh

Fox Sports makes a big deal of handing out an award to the player who lights it up on Thanksgiving Day, which is stupid. They really need to start dishing hardware to the biggest idiot of the day, which clearly goes to Ndamukong Suh this year. Not only did he stomp Dietrich-Smith while he was laying down, but he pouted like a child after he was suspended. Hopefully, the incident serves as a major wakeup call.

Daydream believer award – Philadelphia Eagles

You knew nothing good could come from Vince Young’s dream team comments, and sure enough, nothing did. The only positive thing about this overblown issue was that I made a bundle fading Philly for the first half of the year. You might be able to buy a good baseball team, but that doesn’t work in football.

Don’t ever do that again award – The NFL Lockout

We were all thankful that we had an NFL season, but the lockout proved to be hell for bettors and every red-blooded male that fears chore-filled days in the absence of football. Don’t you ever, ever do that again, NFL.

OK, on to the total picks. Wishing you all a coal-less holiday season.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13, 44)

Did you hear the one about the car dealership giving away cars if the Bears shut out the Packers? No, seriously, there’s a Chicago car dealership giving away cars if the Bears blank the Packers. That’s not going to happen, but this is Chicago’s Super Bowl.

Pick: Under

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 51.5)

The Chargers nearly earned their own coal award, but I decided against it since they keep doing the same thing every year. While their routine is getting a little old, their offense is surging again in December.

Pick: Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 47.5)

Cam Newton gives Carolina a lot to look forward to over the next few years. He’ll give Panthers fans even more to cheer about against Tampa Bay’s dreadful defense in the last home game of the season.

Pick: Over

Last week's record: 1-2
Season record to date: 26-20

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**Udog** · 12-23-2011, 09:27 PM

NFL

Week 16

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NFL betting weather report: Week 16
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Find out how weather will impact your bets in Week 16 of the NFL season:

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+1.5, 41.5)

Christmas Eve is a chilly one in Orchard Park. Temperatures will dip into the low 30s with a chance of snow to begin the game.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.5, 48)

The Fins are a long way from South Beach on Xmas Eve. Temperatures in Gillette Stadium will drop into the mid 20s.

New York Giants at New York Jets (-3, 45.5)

The battle of the Big Apple will be a cold one. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s when these squads fight for MetLife Stadium bragging rights.

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (-15.5, 37.5)

The Rams will be longing for the cozy domed confines when temperatures dip into the low 30s at Heinz Field Friday.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+1, 37.5)

While rain isn’t showing up in the forecast now, there’s a 35 percent chance of precipitation at CenturyLink Field Friday. It is, after all, Seattle. Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 40s.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 43.5)

Those bettors dreaming of a white Christmas won’t find it at Lambeau Field. While temperatures will be in the high 20s, there’s just a 14 percent chance of snow.

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**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 01:27 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 25

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Bears at Packers: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

THE STORY: With their dreams of a perfect season snuffed out, it's no secret what the Green Bay Packers want for Christmas – home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Packers can achieve that goal by snuffing out the reeling Chicago Bears on Sunday night – or it already may be settled by the time they wake up Christmas morning if the Seattle Seahawks can knock off the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday.

Should the Niners lose, Green Bay will secure the No. 1 overall seed and Packers coach Mike McCarthy will have the luxury of resting some of his key players. That's an option McCarthy would love to have after watching top wide receiver Greg Jennings and starting RT Bryan Bulaga sidelined the past two weeks with knee injuries.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Packers opened at -13.5 and have been bet down to -11. The total has also fallen, coming down from 44.5 to 43 points.

WEATHER: Those bettors dreaming of a white Christmas won’t find it at Lambeau Field. While temperatures will be in the high 20s, there’s just a 14 percent chance of snow.

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-7, 7-7 ATS): Chicago has gone belly up since QB Jay Cutler suffered a broken thumb, absorbing four consecutive losses to put its postseason hopes on life support. The Bears finally pulled the plug on Caleb Hanie, who looked overmatched in his four-game stint. He had two interceptions returned for TDs last week as Seattle scored 31 unanswered points in a 38-14 win.

In a desperate measure, the Bears will start Josh McCown, who was coaching at the high school level last month and last started in the United Football League last year. McCown hasn’t started an NFL game since 2007, and his task won’t be any easier with RB Matt Forte sitting out a third straight game.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (13-1, 9-5 ATS): With Jennings out of the lineup, Aaron Rodgers had his roughest game of the season in Sunday’s 19-14 loss at Kansas City. He failed to throw multiple TD passes for the first time this season, completed fewer than half his passes and his 235 passing yards were a season low. It also represented the fewest points scored by Green Bay since a 10-3 victory over Chicago in the 2010 regular-season finale.

The running game should get a boost with the expected turn of James Starks, who has sat out the last two games with an ankle injury. Ryan Grant rushed for 151 yards while Starks was out, but he had a total of only 22 carries in the two games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Packers have beaten the Bears three straight, including a 21-14 win in last season’s NFC title game and a 27-17 victory earlier this season. The last two have been in Chicago.

2. McCown has appeared in 48 games with five different teams. He has thrown 35 TD passes and 41 interceptions in his career.

3. Rodgers broke the franchise record with his 40th TD pass last week, becoming the fifth player in NFL history to reach that milestone.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Green Bay.
* Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Packers 27, Bears 13. Green Bay sews up the No. 1 seed by beating Chicago at home for the fourth straight time.

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**Udog** · 12-25-2011, 01:30 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 25

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Tale of the tape: Bears at Packers
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Tale of the tape: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11, 42)

Offense

This, of course, is a no-contest. The Packers have one of the most prolific offenses in the game (fourth overall in the NFL at 397.8 yards per game). Aaron Rodgers and company will be out for blood after their worst game of the year (and only loss), a 19-14 setback last week at Kansas City.

Chicago has been dreadful ever since Jay Cutler was lost for the regular season with a thumb injury. The Bears have dropped four in a row and in their last three they are scoring nine points per contest. Caleb Hanie has thrown nine interceptions in four starts and in his last three he has just one touchdown against six interceptions. Thus, Josh McCown will get the start on Christmas.

Edge: Packers

Defense

Believe it or not, the Packers are giving up the exact same amount of yards per game as they are averaging on offense. That isn't good for the defense, but the unit is not as bad as it looks. With teams constantly playing from behind, Green Bay gives of chunks of yards through the air, most in garbage time.

The Bears' defense is not as good it has been in the past (17th in the NFL at 353.1 yards per game). It kept up its end the bargain in Weeks 13 and 14, but Seattle torched the Bears for 38 points last week. Linebacker Lance Briggs is questionable with an ankle injury.

Edge: Bears

Special teams

For the Packers, kicker Mason Crosby is 23 of 26 in field goals this season, including 14 of 14 from 30-39 yards. Randall Cobb has been awesome returning kicks (27.5 per return) and punts (11.5 per return).

For the Bears, Robbie Gould is 25 of 28 in field goals this season, including a stellar six of six from beyond 50 yards. Devin Hester remains one of the most dangerous return men in the game, averaging 18.5 yards per punt return with two touchdowns (plus a kick return for a score).

Edge: Bears

Word on the street

“Just the excitement and the joy of being between the stripes again with the lights on, I think that first snap obviously will be exciting. But after that you have a job to do, and that’s to go play good football and help your team win. I don’t want to get too excited and too amped up." -- Bears' quarterback Josh McCown.

“Well, I think it’s baloney. (The Chiefs) have a blueprint for winning any game. If you control the football, you don’t turn the ball over and you can shut the other team down on third down and hold them to 14 points, you should win the game. Other teams have played similar styles of coverages and ideas of rushing four and dropping seven or rushing three and dropping or playing man with two high safeties, and we beat those teams. We just didn’t execute well.” -- Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers when asked after losing to Kansas City if the Chiefs had a blueprint for beating Green Bay

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/22 - 12/26)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (12/22 - 12/26)

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