Spear's Edge

[Kaptain]

great call on the under in the NFL Spearit........we're opposite tonight....gl my friend....I teased it, we can both have possibilities to cover.......

[Spark]

Best to you Spear. Thanks for posting buddy

[Ldawg]

Being from Florida. I suspect that I might be a bit biased toward our teams here. But my sense is that I need look further into the teams.

Both teams know of each other very well as 26 players on the Marshall Team and 11 of those are from the Miami Dade area.
The looks of FIU at 8-4 and Marshall at 6-6, gives the appearance that being near home and having the fans will provide FIU a win and a cover.
However, do not look past
the biggest strength of schedule difference that you find between two teams this bowl season. Think of Boise States schedule and an SEC schedule and you get the idea. Over ten points in difference here, so records mean nothing. If stats are also skewed, then you are needing to see like opponents. FIU and Marshall beat one opponent and FIU beat another that Marshall lost to.
The next thing that I look at is rushing defense, as I will explain later. The better of the two belongs to FIU, but again things are a bit skewed.
The last thing that I have noticed is the farther the team comes has a better ATS advantage.

This play comes from the concept that:
1) Strength of Schedule, the dog the last 8 years, is 41-19-3 ATS Marshall
2) The Rushing Defense, the dog has for the last 8 years a record of 28-15-3 ATS Marshall
3) The farther a team comes to play, generally the public is playing, the last two years the record is 45-20 ATS Marshall

Consequently, teams in the first two categories over the past 8 years is 10-3-2. Marshall

What I also noticed is that Marshall has some 3-4 players as iffy, but we know the big game (grudge match is on between these two teams and I expect it to be close). I expect a lot of energy between these two teams and some hard hits. FIU will have rabid fans but emotions may catch up to them in the second half as bowl veteran Marshall slips by for the cover and possible win.

Taking the points and the system advantage.

(208) Marshall +4 -110

Props where props are due .... As usual great write up and a great pick ....

Good job Spearit ...only regret is, that you did not post in a separate thread so more Peeps could have cashed this ATM !
Nice work ...great call .

[kbsooner21]

Very nice call Spear!

I'm with Ldawg, wish you would have had a new thread for the new day

[Kaptain]

another good call....keep em coming Spearit