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Spear's Edge

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  • Spear's Edge

    I have to believe that the numbers may be a better play tonight in this game.
    As usual the hype does not tell the full storyline of these two teams.
    As we speak of one team we must also do our homework on the other side of the line to really excel in keeping ahead of the bookies.
    The game tonight features two teams with some issues concerning this game. I will not repeat the losses or QB availability of PItt but lets say that if Ben is hobbled or out, the backups are not very good. And to add, Pouncey may not be able to go tonight at center, which is another loss.
    A very good linebacker James Harrison is suspended from the Pittsburgh Steelers defense as well. Sounds great for 49's fans.

    But did you know that the 49's have had 18 sacks against them in the past three games. Would you be interested in knowing that the 49ers are facing the prospect of playing without left tackle Joe Staley. The blind side blocker is still recovering from a concussion and hasn't participated in practice this week. Alex Boone would make his first career start for the NFC West champions if Staley is not cleared to play.

    Therefore the best play may well be:
    (Kapt forgive me
    I know how much you hate these)

    SF/Pitt Under 38
    Last edited by Spearit; 12-19-2011, 04:27 PM.
    "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

  • #2
    Best of luck Spear!

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    • #3
      gl pal

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      • #4
        Good luck
        jt4545


        Fat Tuesday's - Home

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        • #5
          Spearit...........so good to hear from you ansd see one of those good ass informative write ups of yours...........

          No fogiveness needed for playing the UNDER, believe it or not, I like the call.......

          I'm gonna Tease Pitts +9 1/2 and UNDER 45.....Lines I have are SF -2 1/2/TTL 38....

          2 team 7 pt teaser......

          Take care my friend, and I hope all is well with you


          Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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          • #6
            GL today spear. good to see you posting
            2013 NCAA POD Record

            8-3ATS +3.80 units

            2013 NFL POD Record

            1-2 ATS -4.50 units

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            • #7
              Great to see you posting! Thanks, Spearit! Good luck!

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              • #8
                GL Spear...

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                • #9
                  GL tonight Spear
                  You can't drink all day if you don't start in the morning

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                  • #10
                    I like the play. GL

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                    • #11


                      thank you, sir, may i have another?

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                      • #12
                        Spearit is a great capper! Keep them coming buddy! As always solid!

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                        • #13
                          you picked up right where you left off, in the Winners Circle....good call, as usual.....keep em coming


                          Don't make me go Cajun on your Ass!

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                          • #14
                            Marshall vs FIU

                            Being from Florida. I suspect that I might be a bit biased toward our teams here. But my sense is that I need look further into the teams.

                            Both teams know of each other very well as 26 players on the Marshall Team and 11 of those are from the Miami Dade area.
                            The looks of FIU at 8-4 and Marshall at 6-6, gives the appearance that being near home and having the fans will provide FIU a win and a cover.
                            However, do not look past
                            the biggest strength of schedule difference that you find between two teams this bowl season. Think of Boise States schedule and an SEC schedule and you get the idea. Over ten points in difference here, so records mean nothing. If stats are also skewed, then you are needing to see like opponents. FIU and Marshall beat one opponent and FIU beat another that Marshall lost to.
                            The next thing that I look at is rushing defense, as I will explain later. The better of the two belongs to FIU, but again things are a bit skewed.
                            The last thing that I have noticed is the farther the team comes has a better ATS advantage.

                            This play comes from the concept that:
                            1) Strength of Schedule, the dog the last 8 years, is 41-19-3 ATS Marshall
                            2) The Rushing Defense, the dog has for the last 8 years a record of 28-15-3 ATS Marshall
                            3) The farther a team comes to play, generally the public is playing, the last two years the record is 45-20 ATS Marshall

                            Consequently, teams in the first two categories over the past 8 years is 10-3-2. Marshall

                            What I also noticed is that Marshall has some 3-4 players as iffy, but we know the big game (grudge match is on between these two teams and I expect it to be close). I expect a lot of energy between these two teams and some hard hits. FIU will have rabid fans but emotions may catch up to them in the second half as bowl veteran Marshall slips by for the cover and possible win.

                            Taking the points and the system advantage.

                            (208) Marshall +4 -110
                            Last edited by Spearit; 12-20-2011, 01:34 PM.
                            "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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                            • #15
                              Bowling

                              Just to add:
                              Biggest Strength of schedule Mismatch
                              Marshall (+4) 35.4 vs Fla Intl 24.2

                              Good Luck to all tonight.
                              "The range of what we think and do is limited by what we fail to notice.

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