NBA 2011-12 Preview: Southeast Division
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Other Previews:
Atlantic Division
Central Division
MIAMI HEAT
2010-11 record: 58-24, 1st place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 10-to-11
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 2-to-1
The Heat are the NBA’s most scrutinized team, but they’re also the best.
After starting just 9-8 last year, they finished off the season 49-16 (.754) and obviously tore through the Eastern Conference in the postseason. And that was a completely rebuilt team with few role players making adjustments on the fly.
The Big Three—F LeBron James (26.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 7.0 APG), G Dwyane Wade (25.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and F Chris Bosh (18.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG)—should be a little more settled in this year. Their supporting cast should be improved as well. F Shane Battier (7.6 PPG with Houston and Memphis) is a perfect fit as an excellent defender who can take some of the defensive burden off James and Wade, and is capable of hitting the corner three. They should also have PF Udonis Haslem (8.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG) for most of the regular season. He played just 13 games last season, but was a key complement to Bosh in the frontcourt during the playoffs. F Mike Miller was hampered by a shoulder injury for most of last year, and is now dealing with a hernia. They’ll likely hold him back until the playoffs, where he can be a valuable three-point shooter and defensive rebounder.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami finish behind Chicago again in the regular season standings. Last year, head coach Erik Spoelstra essentially treated the regular season like many teams treat the preseason, installing a revamped system for the playoffs. And the Heat still were the only team in the NBA in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency during the regular season.
******* Take: It’s obviously all about the postseason for this team. And as for the playoffs, there’s no reason Miami should lose a seven-game series to anyone. As much as James was ridiculed for his lack of scoring output in the fourth quarter in playoff games, he doesn’t need to take over games. Wade’s attacking style (and apparent reputation among NBA officials) is enough to get to the line frequently, which is where Miami can win. And Bosh spent the playoffs quietly knocking down open jumpers. That’s more than enough offense, especially when complemented by Miami’s lockdown defense. The Heat are heavy favorites for the NBA title, and rightly so. Expect them to be cutting down the nets.
ATLANTA HAWKS
2010-11 record: 44-38, 3rd place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 23-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 50-to-1
The Hawks continue to be a Jekyll and Hyde team. After a late regular-season collapse, all signs pointed to another postseason embarrassment. Instead they blitzed Orlando and gave the Bulls a serious run in the conference semifinals.
This year’s team will have a younger feel, especially at point guard. During the postseason, they seemed to benefit from the point guard combination of Kirk Hinrich (8.6 PPG in 24 games with Atlanta) and Jeff Teague (5.2 PPG), rather than the indifferent Mike Bibby. With Hinrich banged up, Teague emerged as a star in the Chicago series, averaging 14.8 PPG while topping 20 points three times.
The focal point of the offense is still G Joe Johnson (18.2 PPG), who was a huge regular season disappointment after shooting just 29.7% from three. His hot shooting in the playoffs was a big reason for their strong finish, as he shot 42.9% from behind the arc in the postseason.
PF Josh Smith (16.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) is primed for a big year. He has reportedly dropped 30 pounds, which should help him become a more effective defender, and vowed to shoot fewer threes (2.0 attempts per game). Al Horford (15.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG) would like to slide to the four more often, but will likely be needed to play center for the most part this year.
They added Tracy McGrady (8.0 PPG with Detroit) to the bench, likely replacing free agent Jamal Crawford (14.2 PPG). Crawford had been a go-to option late in postseason games. That role might now fall to Teague.
******* Take: There’s plenty to like about the Hawks, who could leapfrog Orlando even if the Magic retain Dwight Howard. Atlanta is streaky and at times dysfunctional, but their collection of individual talent makes them the biggest threat to the top three in the Eastern Conference.
ORLANDO MAGIC
2010-11 record: 52-30, 2nd place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 14-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 30-to-1
Orlando’s season will all come down to whether or not they can convince Dwight Howard to stay with them long-term. And as of now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
Howard is more indispensible to his team than any player in the NBA. The Magic are 100% built around him, with a collection of role players who can shoot, but don’t defend. Because of Howard, they were third in the NBA in defensive efficiency and second in total rebounding rate last season. Without him, they could easily tumble into the league’s bottom five in both categories.
While Howard’s offensive repertoire is limited, he’s still an outstanding finisher and is key to Orlando’s spacing, allowing their shooters to get open looks. The Magic shoot more threes than any team in the NBA (25.6 per game last season).
As for the rest of the Magic, PG Jameer Nelson (13.1 PPG, 6.0 APG) is an efficient offensive player, but a liability on the defensive end. It’s a similar story for the trio of SF Hedo Turkoglu (11.4 PPG), whose monster contract could be traded, stretch PF Ryan Anderson (10.6 PPG) and SG J.J. Redick (10.1 PPG). Once an effective isolation option, SG Jason Richardson (13.9 PPG) has gone the way of Vince Carter, becoming more of a standstill shooter.
They did do well to improve their bench, adding PF Glen Davis (11.7 PPG with Boston) and jettisoning headache G Gilbert Arenas (10.8 PPG with Washington and Orlando).
******* Take: They could make a run with Howard on board, as this club’s three-point shooting makes them a boom-or-bust team in a seven-game series. If Howard is dealt, it’s a huge blow, regardless of the compensation they get. But in all likelihood, they’d be battling just to get back into the playoffs.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
2010-11 record: 23-59, 5th place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
The Wizards have no shortage of young, exciting talent. But they also look like they’re nowhere near ready for a run at the playoffs.
As much promise as PG John Wall (16.4 PPG, 8.3 APG) has, his game is still loaded with flaws. He’s incredibly quick and gets up and down the floor as fast as anyone, but his decision-making and shot selection remain very questionable, a big reason why Washington was third-to-last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. That’s the difference between him and the player he’s most often compared to, fellow John Calipari product Derrick Rose, the reigning MVP. Rose’s basketball IQ has never been in question.
But assuming Wall takes a step forward in his second season, the Wizards are still trying to sort out who will surround Wall. PF Andray Blatche (16.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) is potentially the team’s second-best player if he ever develops a mid-range shot. C JaVale McGee (10.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is an effective finisher and defender. SG Jordan Crawford (16.3 PPG in 26 games with the Wizards) is not shy about shooting the ball and earned rave reviews from head coach Flip Saunders during training camp. But he must shoot better than 39.0% from the field and 23.8% from three, especially if Washington is unable to retain free agent Nick Young (17.4 PPG).
Second-year C/PF Trevor Booker could be in for a bigger role as an effective screener and defender, and could help out on the boards for a team that doesn’t rebound or defend well. They’ll milk whatever they can get out of F Rashard Lewis (11.4 PPG in 32 games with Washington), whose knees seem to be deteriorating quickly. Czech rookie Jan Vesely, the No. 6 pick of the draft, is a potentially strong defender who should make an excellent running mate for Wall because of his ability to finish.
******* Take: The Wizards are still trying to find their way (look no further than their 3-38 road record last season), and considering the shortened training camp, it could be a while before they find their footing. They could be a dangerous team later in the year, but they’re an outside threat for a playoff spot at best.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
2010-11 record: 34-48, 4th place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Charlotte’s seemingly perpetual rebuilding process continues. They went 9-16 after dealing their best player, Gerald Wallace, to Portland at least year’s trade deadline. And after dealing their second-best player, G Stephen Jackson, in the offseason, they’re looking at more of the same.
Points will be hard to come by. The Jackson deal netted them SF Corey Maggette (12.0 PPG in Milwaukee), a potential No. 1 scorer who makes a living getting to the free throw line. But Maggette has been disruptive to his team’s offensive flow in just about every career stop he’s made (Charlotte is his fifth team). Rookie Kemba Walker also brings some scoring punch, though how efficiently he’ll get his points against NBA defenses remains to be seen. PG D.J. Augustin (14.4 PPG, 6.1 APG) seemed more comfortable under head coach Paul Silas than he did under Larry Brown. Charlotte is also hoping for a big improvement from third-year SG Gerald Henderson (9.6 PPG).
The frontcourt is thin. PF Boris Diaw (11.3 PPG) is uniquely skilled and can initiate the offense. PF Tyrus Thomas (10.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) seems to have settled in nicely as the first big off the bench. Space-eating C DeSagana Diop may have to play more minutes with the departure of Kwame Brown. Rookie PF Bismack Biyombo, the key acquisition in the Jackson trade, will be brought along slowly. The teenager was already considered raw, and on top of that he missed a chunk of the abbreviated training camp because of buyout issues with his team in Spain.
Other than that, Silas will have to mix and match with the likes of Eduardo Najera, Dante Cunningham, Derrick Brown and D.J. White.
******* Take: The Bobcats are lottery-bound again, and Silas will have to work some magic just to pull out 30 wins. They’re going to be overmatched on both ends of the court.
SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Other Previews:
Atlantic Division
Central Division
MIAMI HEAT
2010-11 record: 58-24, 1st place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 10-to-11
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 2-to-1
The Heat are the NBA’s most scrutinized team, but they’re also the best.
After starting just 9-8 last year, they finished off the season 49-16 (.754) and obviously tore through the Eastern Conference in the postseason. And that was a completely rebuilt team with few role players making adjustments on the fly.
The Big Three—F LeBron James (26.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 7.0 APG), G Dwyane Wade (25.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and F Chris Bosh (18.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG)—should be a little more settled in this year. Their supporting cast should be improved as well. F Shane Battier (7.6 PPG with Houston and Memphis) is a perfect fit as an excellent defender who can take some of the defensive burden off James and Wade, and is capable of hitting the corner three. They should also have PF Udonis Haslem (8.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG) for most of the regular season. He played just 13 games last season, but was a key complement to Bosh in the frontcourt during the playoffs. F Mike Miller was hampered by a shoulder injury for most of last year, and is now dealing with a hernia. They’ll likely hold him back until the playoffs, where he can be a valuable three-point shooter and defensive rebounder.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami finish behind Chicago again in the regular season standings. Last year, head coach Erik Spoelstra essentially treated the regular season like many teams treat the preseason, installing a revamped system for the playoffs. And the Heat still were the only team in the NBA in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency during the regular season.
******* Take: It’s obviously all about the postseason for this team. And as for the playoffs, there’s no reason Miami should lose a seven-game series to anyone. As much as James was ridiculed for his lack of scoring output in the fourth quarter in playoff games, he doesn’t need to take over games. Wade’s attacking style (and apparent reputation among NBA officials) is enough to get to the line frequently, which is where Miami can win. And Bosh spent the playoffs quietly knocking down open jumpers. That’s more than enough offense, especially when complemented by Miami’s lockdown defense. The Heat are heavy favorites for the NBA title, and rightly so. Expect them to be cutting down the nets.
ATLANTA HAWKS
2010-11 record: 44-38, 3rd place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 23-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 50-to-1
The Hawks continue to be a Jekyll and Hyde team. After a late regular-season collapse, all signs pointed to another postseason embarrassment. Instead they blitzed Orlando and gave the Bulls a serious run in the conference semifinals.
This year’s team will have a younger feel, especially at point guard. During the postseason, they seemed to benefit from the point guard combination of Kirk Hinrich (8.6 PPG in 24 games with Atlanta) and Jeff Teague (5.2 PPG), rather than the indifferent Mike Bibby. With Hinrich banged up, Teague emerged as a star in the Chicago series, averaging 14.8 PPG while topping 20 points three times.
The focal point of the offense is still G Joe Johnson (18.2 PPG), who was a huge regular season disappointment after shooting just 29.7% from three. His hot shooting in the playoffs was a big reason for their strong finish, as he shot 42.9% from behind the arc in the postseason.
PF Josh Smith (16.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG) is primed for a big year. He has reportedly dropped 30 pounds, which should help him become a more effective defender, and vowed to shoot fewer threes (2.0 attempts per game). Al Horford (15.3 PPG, 9.3 RPG) would like to slide to the four more often, but will likely be needed to play center for the most part this year.
They added Tracy McGrady (8.0 PPG with Detroit) to the bench, likely replacing free agent Jamal Crawford (14.2 PPG). Crawford had been a go-to option late in postseason games. That role might now fall to Teague.
******* Take: There’s plenty to like about the Hawks, who could leapfrog Orlando even if the Magic retain Dwight Howard. Atlanta is streaky and at times dysfunctional, but their collection of individual talent makes them the biggest threat to the top three in the Eastern Conference.
ORLANDO MAGIC
2010-11 record: 52-30, 2nd place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 14-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 30-to-1
Orlando’s season will all come down to whether or not they can convince Dwight Howard to stay with them long-term. And as of now, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
Howard is more indispensible to his team than any player in the NBA. The Magic are 100% built around him, with a collection of role players who can shoot, but don’t defend. Because of Howard, they were third in the NBA in defensive efficiency and second in total rebounding rate last season. Without him, they could easily tumble into the league’s bottom five in both categories.
While Howard’s offensive repertoire is limited, he’s still an outstanding finisher and is key to Orlando’s spacing, allowing their shooters to get open looks. The Magic shoot more threes than any team in the NBA (25.6 per game last season).
As for the rest of the Magic, PG Jameer Nelson (13.1 PPG, 6.0 APG) is an efficient offensive player, but a liability on the defensive end. It’s a similar story for the trio of SF Hedo Turkoglu (11.4 PPG), whose monster contract could be traded, stretch PF Ryan Anderson (10.6 PPG) and SG J.J. Redick (10.1 PPG). Once an effective isolation option, SG Jason Richardson (13.9 PPG) has gone the way of Vince Carter, becoming more of a standstill shooter.
They did do well to improve their bench, adding PF Glen Davis (11.7 PPG with Boston) and jettisoning headache G Gilbert Arenas (10.8 PPG with Washington and Orlando).
******* Take: They could make a run with Howard on board, as this club’s three-point shooting makes them a boom-or-bust team in a seven-game series. If Howard is dealt, it’s a huge blow, regardless of the compensation they get. But in all likelihood, they’d be battling just to get back into the playoffs.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
2010-11 record: 23-59, 5th place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
The Wizards have no shortage of young, exciting talent. But they also look like they’re nowhere near ready for a run at the playoffs.
As much promise as PG John Wall (16.4 PPG, 8.3 APG) has, his game is still loaded with flaws. He’s incredibly quick and gets up and down the floor as fast as anyone, but his decision-making and shot selection remain very questionable, a big reason why Washington was third-to-last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. That’s the difference between him and the player he’s most often compared to, fellow John Calipari product Derrick Rose, the reigning MVP. Rose’s basketball IQ has never been in question.
But assuming Wall takes a step forward in his second season, the Wizards are still trying to sort out who will surround Wall. PF Andray Blatche (16.8 PPG, 8.2 RPG) is potentially the team’s second-best player if he ever develops a mid-range shot. C JaVale McGee (10.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.4 BPG) is an effective finisher and defender. SG Jordan Crawford (16.3 PPG in 26 games with the Wizards) is not shy about shooting the ball and earned rave reviews from head coach Flip Saunders during training camp. But he must shoot better than 39.0% from the field and 23.8% from three, especially if Washington is unable to retain free agent Nick Young (17.4 PPG).
Second-year C/PF Trevor Booker could be in for a bigger role as an effective screener and defender, and could help out on the boards for a team that doesn’t rebound or defend well. They’ll milk whatever they can get out of F Rashard Lewis (11.4 PPG in 32 games with Washington), whose knees seem to be deteriorating quickly. Czech rookie Jan Vesely, the No. 6 pick of the draft, is a potentially strong defender who should make an excellent running mate for Wall because of his ability to finish.
******* Take: The Wizards are still trying to find their way (look no further than their 3-38 road record last season), and considering the shortened training camp, it could be a while before they find their footing. They could be a dangerous team later in the year, but they’re an outside threat for a playoff spot at best.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
2010-11 record: 34-48, 4th place in the Southeast Division
Odds to Win 2011-12 Eastern Conference: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2011-12 NBA Championship: 100-to-1
Charlotte’s seemingly perpetual rebuilding process continues. They went 9-16 after dealing their best player, Gerald Wallace, to Portland at least year’s trade deadline. And after dealing their second-best player, G Stephen Jackson, in the offseason, they’re looking at more of the same.
Points will be hard to come by. The Jackson deal netted them SF Corey Maggette (12.0 PPG in Milwaukee), a potential No. 1 scorer who makes a living getting to the free throw line. But Maggette has been disruptive to his team’s offensive flow in just about every career stop he’s made (Charlotte is his fifth team). Rookie Kemba Walker also brings some scoring punch, though how efficiently he’ll get his points against NBA defenses remains to be seen. PG D.J. Augustin (14.4 PPG, 6.1 APG) seemed more comfortable under head coach Paul Silas than he did under Larry Brown. Charlotte is also hoping for a big improvement from third-year SG Gerald Henderson (9.6 PPG).
The frontcourt is thin. PF Boris Diaw (11.3 PPG) is uniquely skilled and can initiate the offense. PF Tyrus Thomas (10.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) seems to have settled in nicely as the first big off the bench. Space-eating C DeSagana Diop may have to play more minutes with the departure of Kwame Brown. Rookie PF Bismack Biyombo, the key acquisition in the Jackson trade, will be brought along slowly. The teenager was already considered raw, and on top of that he missed a chunk of the abbreviated training camp because of buyout issues with his team in Spain.
Other than that, Silas will have to mix and match with the likes of Eduardo Najera, Dante Cunningham, Derrick Brown and D.J. White.
******* Take: The Bobcats are lottery-bound again, and Silas will have to work some magic just to pull out 30 wins. They’re going to be overmatched on both ends of the court.
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