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WINNING POINTS TIPSHEET (NFL FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS)
Pittsburgh over *Tennessee by 3
Tennessee has been the hottest team winning 10 of their last 11 with its only loss coming by one point to Baltimore. The Titans are also 9-2 ATS their past 11. But when these two teams met in mid-November, the Steelers were three-point favorites at Tennessee. Now the Titans are laying more than a field goal. Thats a touchdown swing and too much in our opinion. The Steelers had covered their past four against the Titans, until losing 31-23 this season. Statistically, the game was close to even with the Titans gaining just 21 more yards and two additional first downs than Pittsburgh. The key for Tennessee in that earlier matchup was holding the Steelers to 45 yards rushing, and picking off three Tommy Maddox throws. The Steelers, with their unconventional 3-4 defense, gave up the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. They also were fifth best in sacking the quarterback. Eddie George averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, lowest of any of the top 35 ranked rushers. We dont believe the Titans will be able run on the Steelers, especially if they dont have their offensive left side back in action. Tackle Brad Hopkins (check status) and guard Zach Piller (check status) have each missed Tennessees last two games. QB Steve McNair needs a ground game, or at least the threat of one, to set up his play-action passes. Pittsburghs secondary is vulnerable. Thats the one Steelers weakness. However, the Titans and their conservative coach, Jeff Fisher, wont be able to exploit this area like better passing teams did such as Cleveland last week and New England and Oakland did at the beginning of the season. The Titans dont have that kind of downfield attack mentality, nor do they have enough quality wide receivers to stretch the field. Derrick Mason is McNairs only top receiving threat. The Steelers, meanwhile, have averaged close to 28 points under Maddox. WR Hines Ward hauled in a franchise-record 112 passes, and Plaxico Burress averaged 17 yards a reception. A healthy Samari Rolle has made a big difference in Tennessees secondary the second half of the year. But the Steelers have a well-rounded offense with a power ground game and fleet multi-dimensional wide receivers. Pittsburgh also shored up its weak kicking game. Josh Reed replaced Todd Peterson and has made 17 of 20 field goals. The Steelers should be able to mix and match their attack, while the Titans are going to have rely solely on a beat-up McNair. Pittsburgh may be a little drained after their come-from-behind victory against the Browns last week. Consequently, though, the Titans may have lost a little of their momentum and edge being off last week. Prior to that, the Titans had been on the road four of the last six weeks. PITTSBURGH 20-17.
*Philadelphia over Atlanta by 14
When Atlanta upset Green Bay last Saturday, it marked just the fourth time in 21 tries a dome team had won an outdoor playoff game since 1990. Now the warm-weather Falcons hit the road a third straight week, where their assignment becomes much harder. This time the Falcons dont draw a spent, injury-depleted Packers squad that had lost their way. Yes, the Falcons, and their young emerging superstar QB Mick Vick, demonstrated they could win in tough winter conditions. But theyll have to prove it again against the rested Eagles in the frozen artificial turf, frenzied atmosphere of Veterans Stadium. The Eagles have their sights set on the Super Bowl. The overachieving Falcons are just thrilled to be this far. While the Falcons have been spotty the past five games going 2-3, the Eagles are 6-1 SU and ATS their past seven. Philadelphias only defeat was its last game, to the New York Giants in overtime. The Eagles are 12-0 following a loss. That defeat to the Giants marked the Eagles only loss against NFC competition in 12 games this season. Philadelphia scored 415 points, an average of 25.9, which was the second highest total in the NFC. The Eagles will get a boost with the expected return of QB Donovan McNabb, who has been out since suffering a broken ankle on Nov. 17. McNabb may be rusty, but dont count on that. The Eagles hardly missed a beat without McNabb losing only once without him. The Eagles now gain mobility at quarterback and a powerful arm with McNabb. The Falcons were able to run on the soft Packers defense. Vick was able to make plays, too, because Green Bay didnt have star safety Darren Sharper. This forced Green Bay to play a more vanilla defense. Vick's talent is unmatched. But hes still learning how to manage a game and read defenses. The Eagles are one of the best, if not the best, at confusing quarterbacks with various blitzes. They had 56 sacks, just six off their team record of 62 set in 1989. Already Vick has played more games this season than he did his entire college career, if you count preseason. He could be hitting a wall, completing less than 48 percent of his passes the final five regular season games. He also has a sore shoulder and bad thumb. Atlanta running backs Warrick Dunn and rookie T.J. Duckett could have problems on a winter field, especially the diminutive Dunn. The Falcons also are without veteran FB Bob Christian. Meanwhile, the Eagles with Duce Staley should be able to run on the Falcons. Atlanta placed just 28th in yards allowed per rush, allowing 4.6 yards, and six times surrendered at least 150 yards on the ground. The combination of Philadelphia ball control, and pressure on Vick will spell an Eagles victory. PHILADELPHIA 27-13.
*Tampa Bay over San Francisco by 14
The 49ers had a comeback for the ages against the Giants, but we see serious matchup problems for them here on the road against a physical Bucs squad. The Bucs led the NFL in defense allowing just 12.2 points. They have a fierce pass rush with Simeon Rice and Warren Sapp, outstanding linebackers led by Derrick Brooks and a ball-hawking secondary that picked off a league-best 31 passes. The 49ers ground attack has tapered off as their running backs, Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow, have battled injuries. Their major weapon is WR Terrell Owens. But Owens will draw plenty of attention from star CB Ronde Barber, interception leader Brian Kelly and safety John Lynch. For San Francisco to do well here, QB Jeff Garcia is going to have to get good performances from his other wideouts, Tai Streets and J.J. Stokes along with tight end Eric Johnson. Being off last week helped Bucs QB Brad Johnson recover from his back injury. Johnson set franchise marks with 22 touchdown passes, lowest interception ratio and a 62.3 percent completion mark. Johnson has tall, veteran targets in Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius. Johnson should be able to pass at will on a banged-up, unproven 49ers secondary that has been disappointing much of the year. The key for the Bucs is their long dormant ground game has shown signs of life the past few games with Michael Pittman running better and the offensive line getting more comfortable in coach Jon Grudens system. You might remember the Bucs losing at home to Pittsburgh on Monday night, and being held without a touchdown by the lowly Bears on the final Sunday night game. But that was without Johnson. The Bucs are a different team with him behind center. Dont forget that. This isnt a Bucs team with Rob Johnson or Shaun King running the offense anymore. Keep in mind, too, the 49ers havent been playing well, failing to cover their past nine games! They turned it on to beat the Giants, but previous to that they gave up 31 points to backup Rams QB Jamie Martin in a Monday night loss to St. Louis, barely beat Arizona and lost to Green Bay at home. The 49ers went uncontested in the their weak NFC West Division, and exerted tremendous energy coming back from a 24-point deficit in the second half to dispatch the Giants. Now they have to fly to the other side of the country. They also may have to break in a new kicker depending on the condition of Jeff Chandler (check status). The Bucs are rested, have the superior defense and their offense is back in the capable hands of Brad Johnson. The 49ers arent a strong enough team to come up with another miracle performance after sleepwalking through the second half of the season. TAMPA BAY 27-13.
New York Jets over *Oakland by 1
The Jets have the worst regular season record of any team in the playoffs. But dont be fooled. This is a team clicking on all cylinders on offense, with dangerous special teams and a defense brimming with confidence. The Raiders defeated the Jets, 26-20, at Oakland on Dec. 2. The Jets lost that game by six despite Curtis Martin being held to 26 yards rushing, and Oakland QB Rich Gannon going 31-for-42 for 342 yards. In the last three weeks, the Jets have played the best of any team. Yet, they still are getting around a touchdown here. New York has outscored New England, Green Bay and Indianapolis, 113-34, the past three games. Thats the defending Super Bowl champion and two playoff teams. They held quarterbacks Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning to a combined 49-of-101 throwing and just 442 yards. Jets QB Chad Pennington, on the other hand, has thrown 10 TD passes the last three games. Gannon was named the NFLs Most Valuable Player, but it was Pennington who led the league in passing with a 104.2 rating. The Raiders didn't fold down the stretch despite their age. They actually had their best second-half record in 26 years. Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Rod Woodson are ancient, but proven big-play veterans. So our handicap isnt against the Raiders, its taking this many points with a hot Jets team. Since a 2-5 beginning, the Jets have reeled off eight wins their last 10 games and a 9-1 ATS mark. Only once in this 10-game span have the Jets allowed more than 20 points. The Jets are 26-10-2 (72 percent) as a road dog the last six years. The Raiders are solid with an outstanding pass-blocking line, all-purpose back Charlie Garner, Hall of Fame receivers and Gannon having his career season. They are the only team in NFL history to win passing 60 times in a game and running 60 times in a game. So we could see a shootout if the weather cooperates because the Jets are averaging 37.6 points their last three games thanks to a hot Pennington, a healthy Martin and special team stars Santana Moss and Chad Morton. Moss averaged an AFC-high 16.5 yards a punt return, while Morton was No. 4 in kickoff returns and set a team record for return yardage. Each scored two touchdowns on returns. The Raiders have been getting by with a makeshift secondary. Oakland hopes to get back CB Tory James, but Pro Bowl CB Charles Woodson is iffy with a cracked fibula. Having an extra day of rest and being able to coast against the Colts should negate cross-country travel for the Jets. The Jets are also quite familiar with the Oakland Coliseum having played there five times the last three years. The Raiders ended New Yorks season last year at the Coliseum in the playoffs, giving the Jets even more incentive. NY JETS 28-27.
Pittsburgh over *Tennessee by 3
Tennessee has been the hottest team winning 10 of their last 11 with its only loss coming by one point to Baltimore. The Titans are also 9-2 ATS their past 11. But when these two teams met in mid-November, the Steelers were three-point favorites at Tennessee. Now the Titans are laying more than a field goal. Thats a touchdown swing and too much in our opinion. The Steelers had covered their past four against the Titans, until losing 31-23 this season. Statistically, the game was close to even with the Titans gaining just 21 more yards and two additional first downs than Pittsburgh. The key for Tennessee in that earlier matchup was holding the Steelers to 45 yards rushing, and picking off three Tommy Maddox throws. The Steelers, with their unconventional 3-4 defense, gave up the fewest rushing yards in the NFL. They also were fifth best in sacking the quarterback. Eddie George averaged just 3.4 yards per carry, lowest of any of the top 35 ranked rushers. We dont believe the Titans will be able run on the Steelers, especially if they dont have their offensive left side back in action. Tackle Brad Hopkins (check status) and guard Zach Piller (check status) have each missed Tennessees last two games. QB Steve McNair needs a ground game, or at least the threat of one, to set up his play-action passes. Pittsburghs secondary is vulnerable. Thats the one Steelers weakness. However, the Titans and their conservative coach, Jeff Fisher, wont be able to exploit this area like better passing teams did such as Cleveland last week and New England and Oakland did at the beginning of the season. The Titans dont have that kind of downfield attack mentality, nor do they have enough quality wide receivers to stretch the field. Derrick Mason is McNairs only top receiving threat. The Steelers, meanwhile, have averaged close to 28 points under Maddox. WR Hines Ward hauled in a franchise-record 112 passes, and Plaxico Burress averaged 17 yards a reception. A healthy Samari Rolle has made a big difference in Tennessees secondary the second half of the year. But the Steelers have a well-rounded offense with a power ground game and fleet multi-dimensional wide receivers. Pittsburgh also shored up its weak kicking game. Josh Reed replaced Todd Peterson and has made 17 of 20 field goals. The Steelers should be able to mix and match their attack, while the Titans are going to have rely solely on a beat-up McNair. Pittsburgh may be a little drained after their come-from-behind victory against the Browns last week. Consequently, though, the Titans may have lost a little of their momentum and edge being off last week. Prior to that, the Titans had been on the road four of the last six weeks. PITTSBURGH 20-17.
*Philadelphia over Atlanta by 14
When Atlanta upset Green Bay last Saturday, it marked just the fourth time in 21 tries a dome team had won an outdoor playoff game since 1990. Now the warm-weather Falcons hit the road a third straight week, where their assignment becomes much harder. This time the Falcons dont draw a spent, injury-depleted Packers squad that had lost their way. Yes, the Falcons, and their young emerging superstar QB Mick Vick, demonstrated they could win in tough winter conditions. But theyll have to prove it again against the rested Eagles in the frozen artificial turf, frenzied atmosphere of Veterans Stadium. The Eagles have their sights set on the Super Bowl. The overachieving Falcons are just thrilled to be this far. While the Falcons have been spotty the past five games going 2-3, the Eagles are 6-1 SU and ATS their past seven. Philadelphias only defeat was its last game, to the New York Giants in overtime. The Eagles are 12-0 following a loss. That defeat to the Giants marked the Eagles only loss against NFC competition in 12 games this season. Philadelphia scored 415 points, an average of 25.9, which was the second highest total in the NFC. The Eagles will get a boost with the expected return of QB Donovan McNabb, who has been out since suffering a broken ankle on Nov. 17. McNabb may be rusty, but dont count on that. The Eagles hardly missed a beat without McNabb losing only once without him. The Eagles now gain mobility at quarterback and a powerful arm with McNabb. The Falcons were able to run on the soft Packers defense. Vick was able to make plays, too, because Green Bay didnt have star safety Darren Sharper. This forced Green Bay to play a more vanilla defense. Vick's talent is unmatched. But hes still learning how to manage a game and read defenses. The Eagles are one of the best, if not the best, at confusing quarterbacks with various blitzes. They had 56 sacks, just six off their team record of 62 set in 1989. Already Vick has played more games this season than he did his entire college career, if you count preseason. He could be hitting a wall, completing less than 48 percent of his passes the final five regular season games. He also has a sore shoulder and bad thumb. Atlanta running backs Warrick Dunn and rookie T.J. Duckett could have problems on a winter field, especially the diminutive Dunn. The Falcons also are without veteran FB Bob Christian. Meanwhile, the Eagles with Duce Staley should be able to run on the Falcons. Atlanta placed just 28th in yards allowed per rush, allowing 4.6 yards, and six times surrendered at least 150 yards on the ground. The combination of Philadelphia ball control, and pressure on Vick will spell an Eagles victory. PHILADELPHIA 27-13.
*Tampa Bay over San Francisco by 14
The 49ers had a comeback for the ages against the Giants, but we see serious matchup problems for them here on the road against a physical Bucs squad. The Bucs led the NFL in defense allowing just 12.2 points. They have a fierce pass rush with Simeon Rice and Warren Sapp, outstanding linebackers led by Derrick Brooks and a ball-hawking secondary that picked off a league-best 31 passes. The 49ers ground attack has tapered off as their running backs, Garrison Hearst and Kevan Barlow, have battled injuries. Their major weapon is WR Terrell Owens. But Owens will draw plenty of attention from star CB Ronde Barber, interception leader Brian Kelly and safety John Lynch. For San Francisco to do well here, QB Jeff Garcia is going to have to get good performances from his other wideouts, Tai Streets and J.J. Stokes along with tight end Eric Johnson. Being off last week helped Bucs QB Brad Johnson recover from his back injury. Johnson set franchise marks with 22 touchdown passes, lowest interception ratio and a 62.3 percent completion mark. Johnson has tall, veteran targets in Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell and Joe Jurevicius. Johnson should be able to pass at will on a banged-up, unproven 49ers secondary that has been disappointing much of the year. The key for the Bucs is their long dormant ground game has shown signs of life the past few games with Michael Pittman running better and the offensive line getting more comfortable in coach Jon Grudens system. You might remember the Bucs losing at home to Pittsburgh on Monday night, and being held without a touchdown by the lowly Bears on the final Sunday night game. But that was without Johnson. The Bucs are a different team with him behind center. Dont forget that. This isnt a Bucs team with Rob Johnson or Shaun King running the offense anymore. Keep in mind, too, the 49ers havent been playing well, failing to cover their past nine games! They turned it on to beat the Giants, but previous to that they gave up 31 points to backup Rams QB Jamie Martin in a Monday night loss to St. Louis, barely beat Arizona and lost to Green Bay at home. The 49ers went uncontested in the their weak NFC West Division, and exerted tremendous energy coming back from a 24-point deficit in the second half to dispatch the Giants. Now they have to fly to the other side of the country. They also may have to break in a new kicker depending on the condition of Jeff Chandler (check status). The Bucs are rested, have the superior defense and their offense is back in the capable hands of Brad Johnson. The 49ers arent a strong enough team to come up with another miracle performance after sleepwalking through the second half of the season. TAMPA BAY 27-13.
New York Jets over *Oakland by 1
The Jets have the worst regular season record of any team in the playoffs. But dont be fooled. This is a team clicking on all cylinders on offense, with dangerous special teams and a defense brimming with confidence. The Raiders defeated the Jets, 26-20, at Oakland on Dec. 2. The Jets lost that game by six despite Curtis Martin being held to 26 yards rushing, and Oakland QB Rich Gannon going 31-for-42 for 342 yards. In the last three weeks, the Jets have played the best of any team. Yet, they still are getting around a touchdown here. New York has outscored New England, Green Bay and Indianapolis, 113-34, the past three games. Thats the defending Super Bowl champion and two playoff teams. They held quarterbacks Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning to a combined 49-of-101 throwing and just 442 yards. Jets QB Chad Pennington, on the other hand, has thrown 10 TD passes the last three games. Gannon was named the NFLs Most Valuable Player, but it was Pennington who led the league in passing with a 104.2 rating. The Raiders didn't fold down the stretch despite their age. They actually had their best second-half record in 26 years. Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Rod Woodson are ancient, but proven big-play veterans. So our handicap isnt against the Raiders, its taking this many points with a hot Jets team. Since a 2-5 beginning, the Jets have reeled off eight wins their last 10 games and a 9-1 ATS mark. Only once in this 10-game span have the Jets allowed more than 20 points. The Jets are 26-10-2 (72 percent) as a road dog the last six years. The Raiders are solid with an outstanding pass-blocking line, all-purpose back Charlie Garner, Hall of Fame receivers and Gannon having his career season. They are the only team in NFL history to win passing 60 times in a game and running 60 times in a game. So we could see a shootout if the weather cooperates because the Jets are averaging 37.6 points their last three games thanks to a hot Pennington, a healthy Martin and special team stars Santana Moss and Chad Morton. Moss averaged an AFC-high 16.5 yards a punt return, while Morton was No. 4 in kickoff returns and set a team record for return yardage. Each scored two touchdowns on returns. The Raiders have been getting by with a makeshift secondary. Oakland hopes to get back CB Tory James, but Pro Bowl CB Charles Woodson is iffy with a cracked fibula. Having an extra day of rest and being able to coast against the Colts should negate cross-country travel for the Jets. The Jets are also quite familiar with the Oakland Coliseum having played there five times the last three years. The Raiders ended New Yorks season last year at the Coliseum in the playoffs, giving the Jets even more incentive. NY JETS 28-27.
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