2011-2012 BOWL Game Best Bets + BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR !

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, December 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Temple - 2:00 PM ET Temple -7 500
Wyoming - Over 50.5 500

Utah State - 5:30 PM ET Utah State -1 500
Ohio - Over 60 500

UL Lafayette - 9:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +4 500
San Diego State - Over 59 500

[Alafan]

where is the bowl game of the year? can't find it

[StarDust Bum]

Its not listed yet........waiting for a line move on 3 games am looking at for the GOY........

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Bowls - Part I

December 16, 2011

Ten of the 12 Big Ten teams are headed to a bowl game this season, including a pair of squads heading to BCS bowls. Apparently, Vegas oddsmakers don't like the Big Ten's chances as seven of the 10 squads are underdogs. Since 2009, the Big Ten is 8-9 straight up and 10-6-1 against the spread in bowl games. In BCS bowls in that span, the Big Ten is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.

Here's a look at part I of a two-part series previewing the Big Ten Bowl games from Dec. 27 through Dec. 31.

Little Caesar's Bowl from Detroit
Matchup: Purdue Boilermakers (-2.5) vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 27
TV/Time: (ESPN, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Purdue won its final game of the season at Indiana to secure its first bowl game since 2007. Western Michigan is in its third bowl game in the last five season's thanks largely to the strength of its high-octane offense. Western Michigan is no stranger to the Big Ten, having played Michigan and Illinois this season (lost to both).

The Broncos offense ranked 22nd nationally in total offense averaging 456 yards per game, and 18th in scoring offense averaging 35.6 points per game (scored 44+ points on five different occasions). QB Carder threw for 3,434 yards (67%) with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. WR White was on the receiving end of 48% of those yards and had 16 touchdowns (leads the nation in receiving). Carder missed the season finale against Akron with a sore shoulder but is expected to start in the bowl game.

Purdue's top two rushers were both injured in the Boilers' last game. Leading rusher Ralph Bolden suffered a knee injury and is not expected to play in the bowl game and second leading rusher (and leader in touchdowns) Akeem Shavers suffered a concussion and is questionable for the bowl game. It might not matter who the Boilers send out at RB, as Western Michigan ranks 100th in total defense and 107th against the run.

As you might expect for an inconsistent 6-6 team, Purdue doesn't stand out in many areas, but the Boilers did just enough to advance to their first bowl game since 2007. The Boilermakers never once won two games in a row and had only one two-game losing streak. Purdue will have to shore up its defense after it allowed 35 points per game over the final five weeks.

Something to consider: Western Michigan has played nine games against Big Ten squads over the last five seasons. The Broncos 2-8 SU and 3-5 ATS (loss against Michigan earlier this season wasn't counted ATS as it was cancelled early due to lightning).

Insight Bowl from Tempe
Matchup: Iowa Hawkeyes (+14) vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date: Friday, Dec. 30
TV/Time: (ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET)

Iowa is 6-3 in bowls during Kirk Ferentz's tenure as coach, including victories in each of the past three years (2010 Insight, 2010 Orange, 2009 Outback). Extending the win streak will be a tough task against Oklahoma, the preseason No. 1 team. Oklahoma dealt with a ton of injuries and both teams struggled down the stretch, each dropping two of the final three games.

Iowa has a strong three-headed attack on offense with QB Vandenberg (23 pass TD), RB Coker (1,384 rush yards, 15 TD), and WR McNutt (1,269 receiving yards, 12 TD). It was quite unpredictable, however, as it scored 41+ four times but was held to 7 or fewer twice. The defense was also quite unreliable, allowing 388 yards per game and 23 points per game (worse averages that Iowa has seen in over six years).

Oklahoma averages over 532 yards per game and 40 points per game, but this offense is much less dangerous without WR Broyles (1,157 yards, 10 TD before injury) and RB Whaley (627 rush yards, 9 TD before injury) out of the lineup. The offense averaged just 29 points per game sine their injuries.

The big question is: how motivated is Oklahoma to be here? They started the season ranked #1 in the country before an inexplicable loss to Texas Tech at home as a four touchdown favorite. The Sooners had another shot to get back in the title hunt before losing to Baylor (had been 20-0 against the Bears). Then to top off the season, the Sooners lost by 34 points to bitter in-state rival Oklahoma State.

Something to consider: Iowa is 7-1 ATS its last eight games as a double digit underdog and 4-0 its last four bowl games. Oklahoma is 19-7 ATS following a loss but just 1-4 ATS the last five bowl games.

Meineke Car Care Texas Bowl from Houston
Matchup: Northwestern Wildcats (+10) vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31
TV/Time: (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

The Aggies are in a state of turmoil. They have no coach and the players are understandably shaken up about it. The team is moving to the SEC next season after a disappointing final season in the Big 12 and a spot in the Meineke Car Care Bowl isn't what the seniors had in mind. Northwestern doesn't have as much talent as the Aggies, but the Wildcats won four of their final five to secure a Bowl bid and are always dangerous as an underdog.

A&M was a preseason top 10 team with as much talent as any in the Big 12 and they ended up 6-6. The Aggies held a 2nd half lead in five of the six losses and a 4th quarter lead in four of the six. The offense can hang with anyone but this defense cannot keep a lead. They were 113th against the pass and 76th in scoring defense. Northwestern's QB Persa led the nation in completion percentage and had 17 TD and 7 INT after missing the first three games with an injury (played the rest of the season injured).

A&M will likely get a bevy of offensive talent back for this game; RB Gray will likely return from injury, as will QB Tannehill with top WR's Swope and Fuller. This Aggie offense ranked 7th nationally in total yards and 11th in scoring. They could have a big day here against this Wildcats defensive unit that surrendered 409 yards per game (80th) and 27 points per game (68th).

Something to consider: Northwestern will play in a bowl for a team-record fourth consecutive year, but the Wildcats haven't won a Bowl game since 1949. This will be a virtual road game for Northwestern in Houston, as Texas A&M fans will pack Reliant Stadium. However, Northwestern is 4-2 ATS on the road this season.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl from San Francisco
Matchup: Illinois Fighting Illini (-2.5) vs. UCLA Bruins
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31
TV/Time: (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

These are the toughest games to gauge, considering that Illinois & UCLA both just fired their head coaches and both had disappointing finishes to the season. Illinois started 6-0 before losing the final six games of the season. UCLA lost three of its final four games by 18+ points and is the only FCS team to make it to a bowl with a sub-.500 record.

Illinois scored just 66 total points in its final six games after averaging nearly 30 in the first half of the season. QB Scheelhaase had just two touchdown passes the final six games after throwing 10 the first six. Offensive coordinator Petrino already departed for a job at Arkansas, leaving Illinois without two of its top three coaches heading into the Bowl game.

Somehow the Bruins came out atop the Pac-12 South and "earned" a place in the conference championship game - mainly because 10-2 USC is serving its two-year postseason ban. UCLA was embarrassed by USC and Oregon the final two weeks of the season, allowing 99 total points and scoring just 31. This defense was terrible in 2011 and it ranks at or near the bottom of every major statistical category.

Illinois' defense has the major edge in this game. This unit ranked 7th in yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense. DE Mercilus leads the nation in sacks (14.5) and forced fumbles (nine, a Big Ten record) and the Illini were 4th nationally against the pass thanks to him. Defensive coordinator Koenning will take over interim head coaching reigns for this game and he should have this defense motivated for one more big performance.

Something to consider: Illinois has failed to cover 15 of its previous 20 non-conference games while the Bruins are just 5-12 ATS its last 17 as an underdog.

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Coaching Changes

December 16, 2011

We’ve seen key players make an impact on point-spreads posted on college football games, but what about the value of a head coach leaving a team just before heading into a bowl game? Of course, it depends on the circumstances whether the coach bailed on the team to take another job or if they were fired.
Then you also have the circumstances like Urban Meyer at Ohio State, where they have a respected coach watching practices from afar, but not officially taking over coaching duties until next season. Luke Fickell, who is the interim head coach will also be part of Meyer’s staff next season. Could this situation turn out better for Ohio State than if Meyer hadn't been named yet for their Gator Bowl matchup with Florida?

“I think the Buckeyes situation is a positive for them because every kid on the team will be practicing extra hard trying to win Urban Meyer’s attention,” said Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White, who made the Florida-Ohio State game a PICK when the consensus in Las Vegas is Florida -2.

“I think it’s a great situation for that program, especially with the players knowing that the well liked Fickell, who recruited many of them, will be staying with the team.”

UCLA has a similar situation with the kids knowing Jim Mora Jr. is taking notes while offensive coordinator Mike Johnson leads them into the Fight Hunger Bowl against Illinois. Illinois opened as a 3-point favorite and after dropping all the way down to -1 ½, has settled in at -2 ½.

Illinois has change too with former Toledo head coach Tim Beckman doing the same thing as Meyer and Mora Jr. with defensive coordinator Vic Koenning coaching the Illini against UCLA.

Toledo quickly got rid of the interim title with Matt Campbell and named him head coach moving forward which should give the players some feeling of security that one of their own is staying put. Toledo has been a steady 3-point favorite for their Dec. 28 Military Bowl game against Air Force.

Other circumstances such as Houston, where head coach Kevin Sumlin took the same position at Texas A&M may have a negative effect.

“Sumlin was a well liked coach by the kids and they believed in everything he was preaching,” said White. “And then after the players have all the anxiety of losing their first game of the season, they’re hit with a bombshell that Sumlin is leaving them.

White said Sumlin vacating the spot was worth about 1-point in his line, which he set Houston as a 2-point favorite. Las Vegas sports books currently have Houston as high as a 6-point favorite against Penn State.

“I thought Houston would have trouble with Penn State’s defense beforehand and now it just adds a little more to the overall equation,” says White.

Tony Levine will taking over the head coaching duties and it should be business as usual for the Cougars, but you do have to account for emotion somewhat.

Most head coaches don’t do a lot of coaching during the game, or practices, leaving most of the duties up to the assistant coaches. The head coach’s job is to get his coaches to do the coaching the way he wants and then serve as somewhat of an inspirational piece for the players and getting them to execute out of respect for him and his staff.

It could be argued that the most important piece to the equation is when a team loses their offensive or defensive coordinator, forcing someone else into that play calling role. Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn accepted the head coaching position at Arkansas State but announced that he would be with Auburn for the Chick-fil-A Bowl on New Year’s Eve against Virginia. Malzahn will also be with Arkansas State for their Jan. 8 GoDaddy.com Bowl against Northern Illinois. Despite wearing two different hats, Malzahn said he didn't feel right about leaving the Auburn kids.

"I feel like that's the right thing to do (coaching for Auburn). ... I really have not gotten any farther as to what my role will be with the bowl game in Mobile (Arkansas State)," Malzahn said Wednesday. "I'll kind of take a couple of days to sit back (and evaluate his plans). But I will be on the sidelines as far as (being) there watching and I will be with the whole bowl experience there in Mobile.'

The move either way hasn’t affected the Auburn line as it holds steady at -1 ½. The Arkansas State line hasn't been affected either, staying at consensus -1 over Northern Illinois.

A game that saw immediate action with a coaching change done mid-stream after the bowl lines had been up for a while was Pittsburgh head coach Todd Graham announcing Wednesday that he had accepted the position at Arizona State. This was one of the all-time great bailouts on a team as he told his kids the news through a text message.

“I Immediately moved the game from (Pittsburgh) -5 to -3 ½,” said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book assistant manager Jeff Sherman. “I saw a lot of over-reaction from a few sports books, but 3 ½ looks to be the right number.”

Pittsburgh plays SMU in the Compass Bowl in Birmingham on Jan. 7.

Ultimately, it appears Houston and Pittsburgh have the biggest issues coming into the bowls due to the coaching situation while others may be better off because of more focus in practice to win the new coach‘s approval.

[Kaptain]

start er off right Star Dust....gl today

[StarDust Bum]

I'll take this for opening day of the bowl season.....

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 4-*2-*0 66.67% +900

[StarDust Bum]

Marshall And Florida International In St. Pete

Two programs will look to end their season on a high note when the Florida International Golden Panthers take on the Marshall Thundering Herd in this year’s Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.

The Beef ‘O’ Brady Bowl will be played at 8:00 p.m. (ET) on Tuesday, December 20, and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Florida International is currently a 4-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

In its first ever bowl appearance last season, Florida International picked up a 34-32 win against Toledo in the Little Caesars Bowl. This will only be Marshall’s second bowl appearance since 2004, but the Thundering Herd did pick up the win in their last bowl game in a 21-17 victory over Ohio in the 2009 Little Caesars Bowl. Marshall has won in six of its last seven bowl appearances, appearing in and winning five straight bowl games from 1998 to 2002.

Marshall (6-6) had a 3-5 SU record with four games remaining in the season and won the three out of four games required to earn a bowl bid. The Thundering Herd finished the season 7-5 ATS, going 5-3 ATS record as an underdog that included two outright upsets.

The Thundering Herd didn’t have particularly good statistics on either side of the ball, finishing 98th in the nation in points scored with 22 per game and 84th in points against (30.2). Marshall had its best offensive output when A.J. Graham took over the starting quarterback job from freshman Rakeem Cato (averaging 37 points per game over that three game span), but Graham was lost for the season with a shoulder injury.

Cato did end the regular season on a high note, however, going 23-for-29 with 341 passing yards and two touchdowns in Marshall’s win over East Carolina.

Florida International (8-4) fell short of preseason expectations to compete for the Sun Belt Conference Title, but the program still took another step in the right direction with a winning season and its second straight bowl game invitation. The Golden Panthers started and ended the season strong with a 3-0 SU and ATS record in their first and last three games, but went 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in the six games in between.

The Golden Panthers had a strong year defensively, giving up just 19.4 points a game to rank 16th in the nation in scoring defense. Sophomore running back Kedrick Rhodes had a strong season in his first year as a starter, rushing for 1,121 yards and eight touchdowns. The team’s most explosive star, wide receiver and kick returner T.Y. Hilton, had 64 catches for 950 yards and seven touchdowns. Both players could have big days against Marshall’s lackluster defense.

Both Florida International and Marshall trended towards the ‘under’ in totals betting this season. The total has gone ‘under’ in 12 of Marshall’s last 18 games and in seven of Florida International’s last eight. Tuesday’s total is currently set at 48½.

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Marshall vs. FIU

December 20, 2011

Mario Cristobal inherited a 0-12 team when he took over the Florida International football program from Don Strock in 2007. Strock had been the school’s first head coach when it created a team in 2002.

The Golden Panthers went 1-11 in Cristobal’s first year, 5-7 in 2008 and 3-9 in ’09. They turned the corner last year, going 6-6 to garner their first postseason bid. In the Little Caesar’s Bowl, Florida International (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) beat Toledo 34-32 as a 1 ½-point underdog.

With the success of an eight-win campaign, interest in Cristobal has naturally heated up. He has interviewed with Pittsburgh and is expected to get an offer Wednesday, so this distraction is hovering over the Panthers.

This development has not impacted the line for tonight’s Beef O’ Brady’s Bowl at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. As of early this morning, most betting shops were listing FIU as a four-point favorite over Marshall from out of Conference USA. The total was 48 ½ at most spots.

As of early this afternoon, however, the line was up to 4 1/2 and the total was adjusted to 49. Gamblers can take the Thundering Herd to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

Cristobal’s potential exit isn’t a given by any means. He played at the University of Miami and South Florida has been his home for a long time. The reality is FIU can’t compete financially with Pitt but if it can step up a decent amount (remember, Isaiah Thomas is the hoops coach), Cristobal might stay and wait it out for a better opportunity in the future.

FIU jumped out to a 3-0 start thanks to impressive wins at Louisville (24-17) and vs. Central Florida (17-10), but then it lost back-to-back games as home favorites vs. Louisiana (36-31) and Duke (31-27). The losses to the Ragin’ Cajuns and the Blue Devils began a 0-6 ATS slide.

However, FIU comes to St. Pete with a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS. The Panthers closed the regular season with a 31-18 win at Middle Tennessee as 7 ½-point road favorites.

FIU is led by senior quarterback Wesley Carroll, a transfer from Mississippi State. Carroll has completed 59.7 percent of his passes for 2,224 yards with a 14/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is senior wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who has a team-high 64 receptions for 950 yards and seven touchdowns.

Hilton has amassed 1,756 all-purpose yards and is a serious threat in the return game. Junior WR Wayne Times has 51 catches for 531 yards and a pair of TDs. The ground game features sophomore RB Kedrick Rhodes, who rushed for 1,121 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.0 yards per carry during the regular season.

Marshall (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) had to win three of its last four games to earn bowl eligibility. The Herd beat East Carolina 34-27 in overtime in its regular-season finale as a one-point home favorite.

Freshman QB Rakeem Cato was the catalyst, connecting on 23-of-29 throws for 341 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Travon Van and Tron Anderson both had a rushing touchdown with Martinez’s one-yard plunge putting Marshall ahead to stay in the extra session.

Cato has a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Junior Aaron Dobson is one of C-USA’s top wideouts, hauling in 10 TD passes.

Marshall has the Defensive Player of the Year in C-USA, senior DE Vinny Curry, who has 11 sacks, 21.5 tackles for losses, six forced fumbles and three blocked kicks. This unit also has C-USA first-teamer Omar Brown, a senior safety who made four interceptions in 2011.

Doc Holliday’s team has been an underdog eight times, going 4-3-1 ATS with a pair of outright victories. The season opener at West Va. was a ‘no play’ since weather cancelled the game before 55 minutes was played.

FIU has been a single-digit favorite four times, posting a 1-3 spread record.

The ‘under’ is 8-3-1 overall for FIU, cashing at a 6-1 clip in its last seven games. The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Marshall, but the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last five outings.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--FIU’s campus in Miami is about a four-hour drive to St. Pete.

--While Huntington, WV., is a long way from St. Pete, Holliday is notorious for his ability to recruit in the Sunshine State. The Herd has plenty of players from Florida so I would warn bettors not to think of FIU as the team that’ll enjoy a major advantage in terms of crowd support.

--While most had turned away by the time Wyoming was on its last possession at the end of a blowout loss against Temple in the New Mexico Bowl this past Saturday, there was plenty of pending action at stake with the Cowboys in Owls’ territory on the final drive. Trailing Temple by a 37-7 score, Wyoming backers for second-half wagers still had a chance and the total (closed 51 at most books) was yet to be decided. With three seconds remaining, QB Brett Smith found Kody Sutton on a screen pass and the RB darted 14 yards into the end zone. This made it a 37-13 score for 50 combined points. Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen opted to go for two to put all bets on the total at stake on one play. The first conversion try was an incomplete pass but a flag for pass interference gave the Cowboys another shot. On the next attempt, Smith ran three yards for the score to make it a 37-15 final and give ‘over’ backers a winner. Also, with Temple leading 28-7 at halftime, it was made a three-point ‘chalk’ for halftime plays. This was an adjusted number of Wyoming plus-24 which became a winner thanks to Sutton’s TD and the subsequent conversion.

--The total came down to the wire in Saturday night’s New Orleans Bowl, too. This number closed at 59 ½. Therefore, this wager was on the line when Ragin’ Cajuns place-kicker Brett Baer set up for a 50-yard field goal on the game’s final play. With Louisiana trailing San Diego St. by a 30-29 score, the ‘under’ would cash with a miss and the ‘over’ would hit if Baer came through. Baer did exactly that to lift the Ragin’ Cajuns to a 32-30 triumph in the school’s first-ever bowl game.

--South Carolina defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson has been named as the new head coach at Southern Miss, replacing Larry Fedora, who bolted for the North Carolina job after a successful four-year tenure with the Golden Eagles. This is a big loss for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks, who have had outstanding defenses during Johnson’s rein as DC.

[StarDust Bum]

FIU-Marshall meet Tuesday in St. Petersburg

FLA INTERNATIONAL GOLDEN PANTHERS (8-4)
vs. MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (6-6)

St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida International -4, Total: 48

FIU is trying to close out the winningest season in school history with a fourth straight victory, while Marshall looks to finish the 2011 campaign with a winning record when the two schools clash in Tuesday’s St. Petersburg Bowl.

This game features two huge talents with Thundering Herd DE Vinny Curry (11 sacks, 6 FF, 21 TFL this year) and Golden Panthers WR T.Y. Hilton (8 rec. TD in 2011, 6 career return TD). These teams have two common opponents, as both schools beat Louisville, and FIU topped UCF 17-10 at home, but Marshall lost 16-6 at UCF. Like many evenly-matched football teams, the winner will likely be the school that doesn’t turn the ball over. And in this instance, that team is FIU, with just one turnover in the past three games. Marshall has coughed it up 11 times in its past three games. The Panthers also have a more consistent offense and a top-notch special teams unit led by Hilton. The pick here is FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL to win and cover.

This FoxSheets trend also backs the Golden Panthers:

MARSHALL is 4-16 ATS (20.0%, -13.6 Units) in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers since 1992. The average score was MARSHALL 22.3, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 2*).

The Panthers have been very efficient on offense lately, scoring 33.3 PPG on 339 total YPG in the past three contests. Hilton has found the end zone in each of these games, including a 97-yard punt return TD against Florida Atlantic. Hilton is a big reason his team leads the nation in punt return average (15.9) and ranks fifth in kick returns (26.3 avg). But the Panthers have many more contributors than just Hilton. Senior QB Wesley Carroll has thrown 14 TD and only 4 INT this year, but he’ll have to watch out for Curry and Marshall star safety Omar Brown who had 4 INT in one game against UAB in October. FIU RB Kedrick Rhodes has piled up 1,121 rushing yards and 8 TD this season. Rhodes has five 115-yard performances in 2011, including 117 yards on 20 carries (5.9 YPC) the last game at Middle Tennessee. He has helped the team rush for 515 yards (172 YPG) in the past three contests, but Marshall has held its past two opponents to 171 yards on 66 carries (2.6 YPC).

After scoring a mere 13.2 PPG in their first six games this year, the Thundering Herd offense has been much more potent in the second half of the season, averaging 30.8 PPG. Freshman QB Rakeem Cato’s confidence is growing, and he’s coming off a tremendous performance against East Carolina. He completed 23-of-29 passes for 341 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to a 34-27 overtime win. Junior WR Aaron Dobson caught both of the touchdowns, giving him six scores in the past five games. Marshall’s running game has been weak all year, reaching 200 yards just once (217 vs. Rice). At 123 rushing YPG, the Herd rank 92nd in the nation in run defense. Meanwhile, the Panthers have the 23rd-best run defense in the land, allowing only 121 YPG.

Marshall is 6-1 in bowl games since 1998 and FIU played in its first-ever bowl last year, and won a 34-32 thriller over Toledo with a last-second field goal.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Games Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
Totals 4-*2-*0 66.67% +900


Tuesday, December 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Florida International - 8:00 PM ET Marshall +4 500

Marshall - Over 48.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

TCU Tackles Louisiana Tech In Poinsettia Bowl

We’re not sure TCU (No. 19 in Don Best Linemakers Poll; 10-2 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) is all is all that excited about playing in the Poinsettia Bowl.

On the other hand, if our sources are to be believed, red-hot Louisiana Tech (8-4 SU, 10-2 ATS) can’t wait to get on the field Wednesday night at Qualcomm Stadium.

Thus, it might be time to consult Dr. Phil for his psychological take on a matchup that might be more compelling than a lot of observers believe.

The Horned Frogs return to San Diego for a relatively-new bowl game they helped christen back in 2006 when rolling past Northern Illinois, 37-7. And for the sixth renewal of the Poinsettia Bowl, TCU is back for an encore. The Don Best odds screen indicates that Las Vegas betting outlets and the wagering public believe it will be a successful venture, with the Horned Frogs favored by 10-11 points at the various sports books in town, and the total between 55 and 56 points.

Kickoff on Wednesday night at Qualcomm Stadium will be at 8:00 p.m. (ET), with ESPN providing the TV coverage.

Indeed, this does not rate as a normal trip to San Diego, usually a welcome development in December, for TCU. The Frogs can be excused for being a bit disappointed after their BCS hopes were dashed two weeks ago. BCS frameworrk suggested TCU had a realistic shot of stealing a major bowl invitation after Houston's loss to Southern Miss in the C-USA title game.

It was no stretch to envision that result opening the door for the Mountain West champion Frogs to finish in a qualifying position (meaning in the top 16 of the final ranking and ahead of the highest-ranked Big East rep) for Sugar or Fiesta bids, but poll dynamics reared their ugly head and kept head coach Gary Patterson's squad out of a big-money payday for the first time since 2008.

Mountain West sources reported profound disappointment in Fort Worth after not getting a third straight BCS call, and Patterson has had to do an extra pump-up job on the Frogs to get them ready after the BCS slap.

Meanwhile, WAC sources indicate underdog La Tech can't wait for a chance to continue what was one of the nation's hottest streaks (seven straight wins and covers) down the stretch.

Another development worth monitoring is the situation regarding in-demand Bulldog coach head coach Sonny Dykes, reportedly in consideration for several higher-profile openings. On short lists but bypassed for jobs at Ole Miss and Kansas, Dykes remains in Ruston, although new rumors have him on the radar at Houston, whose job has opened after Kevin Sumlin’s move to Texas A&M. Stay tuned for further developments.

Still, the fact Dykes remains in the fold should be a positive for Tech as it returns to bowl action for the first time in three years, when Derek Dooley’s La Tech beat Northern Illinois by a 17-10 count in the Shreveport Independence Bowl.

Underestimate the Bulldogs at your own risk. Even earlier in the 2011 campaign, before La Tech caught fire down the stretch, it was doing enough to get noticed. Consider that three of its four losses were by a grand total of six points vs. well-regarded Southern Miss, Houston (which the Bulldogs led by 27 points in the third quarter) and in OT at Mississippi State. Only once, in a late-September and mistake-filled game vs. Hawaii, did the Bulldogs lay an egg this season.

Although it’s not quite the full-throttle Air Raid attacks Dykes coordinated during his recent assistant stints at Texas Tech and Arizona, junior QB Colby Cameron nonetheless emerged as an effective game manager after taking over the starting duties from true frosh Nick Isham at midseason. Cameron was able to get multiple receivers involved as he tossed 11 touchdowns and just two picks in five-and-a-half games after taking over for Isham.

Dykes' "O" also has balance provided by RBs Lennon Creer, the ex-Tennessee transfer who gained 838 rush yards despite a variety of nagging hurts, and frosh caddy Hunter Lee, who gained another 582 yards in relief. Creer is likely to be available at full strength for the bowl game.

And there might be opportunities for Dykes' strike force to do some business vs. a Frog "D" that leaked a bit more than some of defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas' recently top-ranked units. Especially through the air, where TCU allowed 21 TD passes and collected only nine picks.

The Frogs were in rebuild mode this year, especially in the secondary, which accounted for some of those collapses. By the end of the season, Bumpas’ 4-2-5 was posting better numbers, but this is not the shut ‘em down defense we have been used to seeing over the past few years in Fort Worth.

Outscoring soph QB Casey Pachall and a potent TCU attack scoring 41 ppg will be a tall order for La Tech, but given the pointspread cushion, and the general successes of double-digit pre-New Year’s bowl underdogs (who have covered at a better than 60% clip since the mid ‘70s), a valid technical case can be presented for the Bulldogs on top of their current 7-game cover streak.

Let’s also not forget that some of those aforementioned defensive shortcomings contributed to TCU's subpar 2-6 mark as double-digit chalk this season. There are fundamental and technical cases to be made for La Tech staying within earshot in San Diego.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 15 TCU takes on Louisiana Tech Wednesday

LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS (8-4)
vs. TCU HORNED FROGS (10-2)

Poinsettia Bowl
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: TCU -9.5, Total: 56

Two teams riding seven-game win streaks collide in Wednesday’s Poinsettia Bowl between Louisiana Tech and No. 15 TCU.

The Bulldogs have covered the spread in all seven wins (five on road), thanks in part to 22 takeaways. TCU has averaged 41.6 PPG during its win streak, but only went 4-3 ATS. The Bulldogs Louisiana Tech has a strong run defense (122 YPG, 25th in FBS), but the Horned Frogs average 210 rush YPG (20th in FBS) with three players tallying 600+ yards each. TCU also has the edge at QB with Casey Pachall (24 TD, 6 INT) more accomplished than Tech’s Colby Cameron (11 TD, 2 INT). Since joining the Mountain West Conference, the Frogs are 5-1 in bowl games, including 2-0 in the Poinsettia Bowl. The pick here is TCU to win and cover.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also support the Horned Frogs:

Gary Patterson is 25-13 ATS (65.8%, +10.7 Units) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of TCU. The average score was TCU 37.5, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 1*).

LOUISIANA TECH is 5-16 ATS (23.8%, -12.6 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival since 1992. The average score was LOUISIANA TECH 25.9, OPPONENT 36.4 - (Rating = 1*).

The WAC Champion Bulldogs are making their first bowl appearance since 2008 when they knocked off Northern Illinois by a 17-10 score in the Independence Bowl. This year, they are 10-2 ATS, including a 7-0 ATS (5-2 SU) on the road and 7-0 ATS as an underdog or pick ‘em. Tech’s offense has been much better under Cameron than it ever was before freshman QB Nick Isham got injured. In five games with Cameron, the team is scoring 34.8 PPG and gaining 446 total YPG. He has worked very well with WRs Taulib Ikharo and Quinton Patton, an all-WAC selection. Ikharo has 19 catches for 229 yards and 3 TD in the past three weeks, and Patton has 24 catches for 462 yards and 5 TD over the past five games. Cameron expects to exploit TCU’s 56th-ranked passing defense (220 YPG), but he’ll try to avoid throwing in the direction of Tank Carder. The two-time MWC Defensive Player of the Year has 66 tackles and two interceptions, both of which were returned for touchdowns. DE Stansly Maponga (9 sacks, 5 forced fumbles) is also a force for TCU.

The Horned Frogs will first establish the run, but they can also throw the football with Pachall, who has eight multi-touchdown games, including a 5-TD effort (with 473 yards) at Boise State. The Bulldogs are third in the nation with 20 defensive interceptions, but they have also allowed 253 passing YPG (95th in FBS). Pachall will not be working with his main co-offensive coordinator, Justin Fuente, who is now coaching at Memphis, but Pachall will be well aware of Tech’s top two defenders. WAC Defensive Player of the Year LB Adrien Cole has 121 tackles and 13 TFL, while Christian Lacey has 8½ sacks including 5½ sacks in his past four games. In addition to TCU’s big advantage in rushing the football (210 rush YPG to 122 rush YPG), the Frogs also have the edge in kick returns, as senior Greg McCoy is averaging a whopping 31.6 yards per return (4th in nation).

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Poinsettia Bowl

December 20, 2011

Wednesday’s bowl action heads to San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium, where Louisiana Tech (8-4 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) will try to knock off No. 16 TCU (10-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST and some gamblers could be scratching their heads for this matchup.

The Horned Frogs are the more known of the two programs and they’ve been made prohibitive favorites. However, the Bulldogs from the Western Athletic Conference could be barking loudly in this spot and the sharp money tends to agree.

TCU opened as a 12 ½-point favorite at most sports books in early December. On paper, the Frogs are the better team and the first number seems fair. However, these non-conference affairs are more about the matchup rather than the talent and it appears the sharp money agrees. Since the number came out, the line has been knocked down to 9 ½ and even 9 points at most outfits.

The question is why?

For starters, some bettors will argue that it’s hard for TCU to get up for this particular game. After winning the Mountain West for the third straight season, head coach Gary Patterson and the Horned Frogs just missed out on their third consecutive trip to a BSC bowl. The school beat Wisconsin 21-19 in the Rose Bowl last season and came up short to Boise State (10-17) in the Fiesta Bowl a year prior.

Without debate, it’s fair to say that the Poinsettia Bowl is clearly a step down. However, keep in mind that Patterson and TCU have made two trips to this bowl (see history below) and they showed up both times. Also, the Frogs will be leaving the MWC after the season for the Big 12.

Another obvious reason bettors are fading TCU is the opponent, Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs captured the WAC after closing out the season with seven straight wins, which came after a tough 1-4 start. And if you look at the setbacks, there’s even more of a reason to back second-year coach Sonny Dykes and his crew.

Louisiana Tech lost to the two teams that collided in the Conference USA championship by a combined three points, Southern Mississippi (17-19) and Houston (34-35). Also, they fell to a decent SEC foe in Mississippi State (20-26) in overtime on the road.

While three of their four losses were quality, you can knock La. Tech for its wins too, considering five came against teams with losing records and one was against a Football Championship Subdivision opponent (Central Arkansas) as well. Regardless of the competition, it’s hard to discount the Bulldogs’ current seven-game winning streak, especially since five of the victories were on the road. We shouldn’t forget that TCU also enters this bowl with seven straight wins too and its two losses this year came by two points to Baylor (48-50) and seven points to SMU (33-40) in overtime.

The Horned Frogs could’ve had three setbacks but they managed to pull one of the biggest upsets of the season when they nipped Boise State 36-35 as 16-point road underdogs. Quarterback Casey Pachall tossed the touchdown and eventual game-winning two-point conversion before the Broncos missed a field goal late. Pachall (2,715 yards, 24 TDs, 6 INTs) has played very well in his first season under center for TCU, who averaged 41.7 points per game this season.

Bowl Betting Notes


The Horned Frogs were 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road
The Bulldogs went 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS away from home
TCU watched the ‘over’ go 8-3 this season
La. Tech saw the ‘under’ go 7-4, which included a 6-1 mark on the road
TCU is 3-1 in its last four bowl games under Patterson, but only 1-3 ATS and the largest margin was seven points
The Mountain West is 0-2 both SU and ATS in bowls this season
The WAC is 0-1 SU and ATS
TCU Bowl History (Last Five)

Jan. 1, 2011 Rose Bowl - TCU 21, Wisconsin 19
Jan. 4, 2010 Fiesta Bowl - Boise State 17, TCU 10
Dec. 23, 2008 Poinsettia Bowl - TCU 17, Boise State 16
Dec. 28, 2007 Texas Bowl - TCU 20, Houston 13
Dec. 19, 2006 Poinsettia Bowl - TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7

Louisiana Bowl History (Last Five)

Dec. 28, 2008 Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech 17, Northern Illinois 10
Dec. 31, 2001 Humanitarian Bowl - Clemson 49, Louisiana Tech 29
Dec. 15, 1990 Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech 34, Maryland 34, tie
Dec. 16, 1978 Independence Bowl - East Carolina 35, Louisiana Tech 15
Dec. 17, 1977 Independence Bowl - Louisiana Tech 24, Louisville 14

Poinsettia Bowl History (2006-2010)

Dec. 23, 2010 - San Diego State 35, Navy 14
Dec. 23, 2009 - Utah 37, California 27
Dec. 23, 2008 - TCU 17, Boise State 16
Dec. 20, 2007 - Utah 35, Navy 32
Dec. 19, 2006 - TCU 37, Northern Illinois 7


Notes: The Mountain West has won all five installments of the Poinsettia Bowl since it started in 2006

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Bowl Game Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/20/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/17/11 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail
Totals 5-*3-*0 62.50% +850


Wednesday, December 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech +10 500

Texas Christian - Over 55.5 500