Who's Hot, Who's Not
December 13, 2011
There are plenty of factors to consider when handicapping the college football bowl season, especially when you look at particular matchup. Analyzing a non-conference matchup isn’t easy in September yet alone December or January. So how do you find a mismatch? Looking at the current form of a school is a nice way to start. Below is a list of bowls that have are either streaking or slumping into the postseason.
On a Roll
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Saturday, Dec. 17
Utah State (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) owns an all-time bowl record of 1-4 and hasn’t been to a postseason game since the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl, which it lost to Cincinnati (19-35). Perhaps things will change this year. The Aggies have closed the season with five straight wins, three coming on the road too. Utah State is listed as a short favorite (2 ½) but earning its second bowl victory won’t be easy against a decent Ohio (9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS squad. The Bobcats had a five-game winning streak intact before they lost to Northern Illinois (20-23) in the MAC Championship.
Poinsettia Bowl – Wednesday, Dec. 21
Gamblers will have a tough decision in this battle from San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium. Louisiana Tech (8-4 SU, 10-1 ATS) and TCU (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) both enter this game with identical seven-game winning streaks. Even knowing that fact, the Horned Frogs have been listed as 10 ½-point favorites on the neutral field. TCU is 3-1 in its last four bowl games under Gary Patterson, but only 1-3 ATS and the largest margin was seven points. Make a note that the Bulldogs were 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS on the road this season, and the two losses came against quality foes in Southern Miss (17-19) and Mississippi State (20-26 OT).
Alamo Bowl – Thursday, Dec. 29
Robert Griffin and Baylor (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) will look to build on their five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) this postseason when it battles Washington (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS). The Bears haven’t won a bowl game since 1992 and this will be a home game for them, with Waco just a few hours north of San Antonio. Most books have Baylor listed as a nine-point favorite.
Rose Bowl, Monday Jan. 2
It’s kind of amazing that Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) is getting six points against Oregon (11-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) in its bowl game. The Badgers closed the season with five straight wins, four by double digits and their two losses came by a combined 10 points on heartbreaking plays. Oregon is no slouch but it hasn’t won a bowl game under head coach Chip Kelly.
GoDaddy.com Bowl – Sunday, Jan. 8
This particular bowl doesn’t boast big programs but you do have a pair of hot teams squaring off. Arkansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) started the season 1-2 but closed with nine straight wins. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (10-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) was also shaky (2-3) in the first five weeks but the Huskies ended the season with eight consecutive games, including its MAC Championship win over Ohio (23-20). The oddsmakers are expecting a tight game as well, with the Red Wolves listed as one-point favorites.
BCS Championship – Monday, Jan. 9
The rematch between LSU (13-0 SU, 10-2 ATS) and Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) needs no introduction. The Tigers have the longest winning streak in the nation at 13 and almost half of them came on the road. LSU has gone 6-0 both SU and ATS outside of Baton Rouge, but Alabama’s road mark (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) isn’t too shabby either.
Why Bother Playing?
The bowls listed below will have teams that are slumping into their bowl games and not surprisingly, all three of them will have new coaches as well next season.
Maaco Bowl – Thursday, Dec. 22
At one point this season, Arizona State (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) had positioned itself for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship. The Sun Devils then dropped five of their last six, including their final four games. The school fired Dennis Erickson as head coach, yet he’ll still be on the sidelines when ASU meets No. 8 Boise State (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Sun Devils only went to one bowl under Erickson and they lost by 18 to Texas (34-52). The Broncos are currently listed as 14-point favorites, which is the highest number amongst all the bowls.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Saturday, Dec. 31
New Year’s Eve college bowl slate will have five games on tap and this is probably the one you shouldn’t bet on. Despite closing the season with six straight setbacks, Illinois (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) is listed as a 2 ½-point favorite in its bowl game. Why? Because the opponent is UCLA (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS), who actually showed some fight against Oregon (31-49) in the Pac 12 title game. What’s even more comical is that both teams fired their head coaches, Ron Zook and Rick Neuheisel, and will use interims for this bowl.
Gator Bowl – Monday, Jan. 2
Most of the talk on this contest will be centered on former Florida coach and new Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) will be led by interim head coach Luke Fickell, who will be hoping to snap a three-game losing skid when they meet Florida (6-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) from Jacksonville. Even though Ohio State is in a bit of a slump, all three of its recent losses came by a combined 15 points. Florida defeated Ohio State 41-14 in the 2006-07 BCS Championship game. Most books have the Gators listed as two-point favorites over the Buckeyes in the rematch.
December 13, 2011
There are plenty of factors to consider when handicapping the college football bowl season, especially when you look at particular matchup. Analyzing a non-conference matchup isn’t easy in September yet alone December or January. So how do you find a mismatch? Looking at the current form of a school is a nice way to start. Below is a list of bowls that have are either streaking or slumping into the postseason.
On a Roll
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Saturday, Dec. 17
Utah State (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) owns an all-time bowl record of 1-4 and hasn’t been to a postseason game since the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl, which it lost to Cincinnati (19-35). Perhaps things will change this year. The Aggies have closed the season with five straight wins, three coming on the road too. Utah State is listed as a short favorite (2 ½) but earning its second bowl victory won’t be easy against a decent Ohio (9-4 SU, 7-5 ATS squad. The Bobcats had a five-game winning streak intact before they lost to Northern Illinois (20-23) in the MAC Championship.
Poinsettia Bowl – Wednesday, Dec. 21
Gamblers will have a tough decision in this battle from San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium. Louisiana Tech (8-4 SU, 10-1 ATS) and TCU (10-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) both enter this game with identical seven-game winning streaks. Even knowing that fact, the Horned Frogs have been listed as 10 ½-point favorites on the neutral field. TCU is 3-1 in its last four bowl games under Gary Patterson, but only 1-3 ATS and the largest margin was seven points. Make a note that the Bulldogs were 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS on the road this season, and the two losses came against quality foes in Southern Miss (17-19) and Mississippi State (20-26 OT).
Alamo Bowl – Thursday, Dec. 29
Robert Griffin and Baylor (9-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) will look to build on their five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) this postseason when it battles Washington (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS). The Bears haven’t won a bowl game since 1992 and this will be a home game for them, with Waco just a few hours north of San Antonio. Most books have Baylor listed as a nine-point favorite.
Rose Bowl, Monday Jan. 2
It’s kind of amazing that Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) is getting six points against Oregon (11-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) in its bowl game. The Badgers closed the season with five straight wins, four by double digits and their two losses came by a combined 10 points on heartbreaking plays. Oregon is no slouch but it hasn’t won a bowl game under head coach Chip Kelly.
GoDaddy.com Bowl – Sunday, Jan. 8
This particular bowl doesn’t boast big programs but you do have a pair of hot teams squaring off. Arkansas State (10-2 SU, 9-2 ATS) started the season 1-2 but closed with nine straight wins. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois (10-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) was also shaky (2-3) in the first five weeks but the Huskies ended the season with eight consecutive games, including its MAC Championship win over Ohio (23-20). The oddsmakers are expecting a tight game as well, with the Red Wolves listed as one-point favorites.
BCS Championship – Monday, Jan. 9
The rematch between LSU (13-0 SU, 10-2 ATS) and Alabama (11-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) needs no introduction. The Tigers have the longest winning streak in the nation at 13 and almost half of them came on the road. LSU has gone 6-0 both SU and ATS outside of Baton Rouge, but Alabama’s road mark (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) isn’t too shabby either.
Why Bother Playing?
The bowls listed below will have teams that are slumping into their bowl games and not surprisingly, all three of them will have new coaches as well next season.
Maaco Bowl – Thursday, Dec. 22
At one point this season, Arizona State (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) had positioned itself for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship. The Sun Devils then dropped five of their last six, including their final four games. The school fired Dennis Erickson as head coach, yet he’ll still be on the sidelines when ASU meets No. 8 Boise State (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Sun Devils only went to one bowl under Erickson and they lost by 18 to Texas (34-52). The Broncos are currently listed as 14-point favorites, which is the highest number amongst all the bowls.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – Saturday, Dec. 31
New Year’s Eve college bowl slate will have five games on tap and this is probably the one you shouldn’t bet on. Despite closing the season with six straight setbacks, Illinois (6-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) is listed as a 2 ½-point favorite in its bowl game. Why? Because the opponent is UCLA (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS), who actually showed some fight against Oregon (31-49) in the Pac 12 title game. What’s even more comical is that both teams fired their head coaches, Ron Zook and Rick Neuheisel, and will use interims for this bowl.
Gator Bowl – Monday, Jan. 2
Most of the talk on this contest will be centered on former Florida coach and new Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer. The Buckeyes (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) will be led by interim head coach Luke Fickell, who will be hoping to snap a three-game losing skid when they meet Florida (6-6 SU, 3-7 ATS) from Jacksonville. Even though Ohio State is in a bit of a slump, all three of its recent losses came by a combined 15 points. Florida defeated Ohio State 41-14 in the 2006-07 BCS Championship game. Most books have the Gators listed as two-point favorites over the Buckeyes in the rematch.
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