The Bum's Week # 15 NFL Best Bets 12/13-12/19 !

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Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers Sunday Night Football

Ravens RB Ray Rice has rumbled for over 300 yards the past two weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens bring a season-high four-game winning streak to San Diego for a key AFC matchup against the dangerous Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens (10-3) have played three of their last four games at home and lost in their only other trip to the West Coast earlier this season.

Baltimore’s last loss came at Seattle back in Week 10, 22-17. The Seahawks jumped out to a 22-7 lead on the Ravens in that game, and the Chargers (6-7) have used fast starts to dispose of their past two opponents following a season-high six-game losing streak.

Game time is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by NBC. Baltimore opened as a 1-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has been bet up as high as -2½ at some sportsbooks with the total moving from 43 to 44.

San Diego seems to be putting everything together to make a run at the playoffs down the stretch. But it might be too little, too late because either the Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers will likely lock down one of the Wild Card spots in the conference. The Chargers trail the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos by two games with three games to play.

Baltimore is currently in the driver’s seat in the AFC North after sweeping both meetings with the Steelers, even though both teams share the same record. The Ravens have not faced great competition in their past two games, beating up on the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns by identical scores. The Colts and Browns are a combined 4-22 this season.

San Diego’s last two wins have not come against winning teams either, as the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-17 between them. The Chargers were very impressive offensively though in beating them by an average margin of nearly 26 points.

Five of San Diego’s six losses during the skid came against teams with a winning record. The exception was in Week 8 on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, who pulled off a 23-20 victory in overtime after Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers fumbled the snap on a late drive in regulation that could have led to the game-winning field goal.

Rivers has played much better lately, failing to throw an interception in the past three games after throwing at least one in nine of the first 10. He has also gotten great support from second-year running back Ryan Mathews, who has averaged 121 rushing yards during that same stretch.

The ‘under’ has cashed in San Diego’s last three home games and is 10-1 in the past 11 at Qualcomm Stadium dating back to last season. The ‘under’ is also 3-0 in Baltimore’s last three games overall. The home team is 6-2 against the spread in the past eight meetings between the Ravens and Chargers.

It appears the Ravens will see linebacker Ray Lewis return to action after missing the previous four games with a toe injury. Cornerback Lardarius Webb has been using a walking boot this week as he battles his own injured toe, but coach John Harbaugh said he expects the third-year pro to play this Sunday.

San Diego is reporting only two injuries of note this week, both defensive backups. End Jacques Cesaire (left ankle) is doubtful and safety Darrell Stuckey (groin) is questionable.

The weather forecast for Sunday in San Diego is mostly sunny with a high temperature of 60.

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Pittsburgh Steelers At San Francisco 49ers Monday Night Football

Michael Crabtree leads the Niners with 55 receptions for 668 yards.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a big injury problem with quarterback Big Ben when they visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

ESPN will have the usual primetime coverage at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from Candlestick Park. This interconference clash of elite teams is a sigh of relief for network executives who were stuck with San Diego at Jacksonville and St. Louis at Seattle the last two weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger certainly lived up to his moniker last Thursday night versus Cleveland, spraining his ankle in the second quarter, but coming back to lead the team to victory with a noticeable limp. The 14-3 final didn’t cover the large 14-point road spread.

The latest information had Roethlisberger still in a walking boot on Tuesday and not attending practice. He’s been diagnosed with a Grade I sprain, which is the least severe and he’s listed as questionable with the 10 full days of rest between games. Charlie Batch is the backup.

Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey is also questionable with an ankle sprain. Pass rusher James Harrison has been suspended after a helmet-to-helmet hit on the Browns’ Colt McCoy and is expected out as his expedited appeal will surely be denied. The other outside linebacker, LaMarr Woodley, is questionable after missing last game with a hamstring injury.

The pointspread and total are currently off the board at Don Best pending these developments, specifically Roethlisberger.

The Steelers (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) are tied with Baltimore for first place in the AFC North, but would lose the tiebreaker after a Ravens season sweep. That’s the difference between possible home field advantage throughout the AFC and a wild card.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s guys have done their best to put the pressure on, winning four straight (2-2 ATS) since losing at home to Baltimore (23-20) on November 6. The defense has been excellent the last three, allowing a measly 6.3 PPG, with the ‘under’ 3-0 in that span.

Pittsburgh is second in the NFL in scoring defense (15.2 PPG), ironically only trailing San Francisco (14 PPG).

The 49ers (10-3 SU, 10-2-1 ATS) have been one of the NFL’s surprise teams, already wrapping up the non-challenging NFC West. The clinching of the division may have come a bit too soon as the first game after was a 21-19 loss at Arizona last Sunday.

The 40 combined points scored just snuck ‘over’ the 39-point total. The ‘under’ was 6-1 in San Fran’s prior seven games.

Coach Jim Harbaugh lost in the desert despite possessing a 19-7 third-quarter lead and going against backup quarterback John Skelton. That’s a game the 49ers would have won earlier this year and they’re now 1-2 SU and ATS in the last three after starting 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS.

The 49ers still have a ton to play for in fighting New Orleans for the No. 2 seed. The winner gets a bye and they certainly don’t want to have a playoff game in the Bayou where the Saints potent offense is akin to an NBA fast break.

The big question this week is the play of quarterback Alex Smith. He’s had a very good year under Harbaugh’s tutelage, but got sacked five times last week. He has a QB rating under 63 the last two road games, also losing at Baltimore 16-6 on Thanksgiving night and getting sacked nine times.

San Fran is a terrific 6-1 SU (6-0-1 ATS) at home and Smith’s rating is 102.1 there (81.1 away). Fans are praying that the ‘bad Smith’ doesn’t suddenly up at Candlestick on Monday night. The potential loss of Harrison and Woodley would help, although the 49ers could be without left tackle Joe Staley, questionable with a head injury.

Harbaugh desperately needs to run the ball Monday with Frank Gore to take the pressure off Smith. Conversely, Pittsburgh needs to feature Rashard Mendenhall with Roethlisberger less than 100 percent even if he plays.

Running won’t be easy as these are two of the top rushing defenses, although Pittsburgh could catch a break if Niners All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis (questionable with a hamstring injury) is out. He missed last game.

These are two of the premiere franchises as Pittsburgh owns six Super Bowl titles and San Francisco five. They last met in 2007 with Pittsburgh winning 37-16 at home. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last meetings.

Weather should be very nice in the Bay Area, clear and likely in the low 50s, high 40s.

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Redskins And Seahawks Two Underdogs To Watch

Mark Sanchez and the Jets are underdogs on the road at Philadelphia.
It’s time to find a few more underdogs with bite in this week’s NFL card.

We run down the slate game-by-game as we seek the best values on the card.

Jacksonville (+11) at Atlanta (Thursday, Dec. 15)
The Jaguars have looked a bit more lively since Mel Tucker took over for Jack Del Rio as head coach; coincidentally or not coincidentally, the Jags have been “over” in two games since after going “under” 10-1 in the previous eleven games. J’ville’s defense has often been good enough to keep it within earshot most weeks, and the slow but steady maturation process of rookie QB Blaine Gabbert continues. The Falcons might have found a cure for their offensive ills last week at Carolina by simply having QB Matt Ryan look for Alabama rookie WR Julio Jones more often that the unreliable Roddy White, who continues to be plagued by dropsies. The Jaguars are not the most helpless-looking dog on the card this week.

Dallas at Tampa Bay (+7, Saturday, Dec. 17)
The argument for Tampa Bay, on a 7-game losing streak, is a tough sell, especially with QB Josh Freeman’s nightmare season continuing and the 31st-ranked Buc defense having disappeared. What has happened to Raheem Morris’ team anyway? And is Morris in trouble? The best case for Tampa Bay is simply an anti-Dallas one, as the Cowboys have been quite unreliable lately as road chalk (no covers last five in role).

Washington (+8) at NY Giants
Now that the Giants control their destiny again in the NFC East, is it time to ride them? Maybe not, because these December, likely raw-weather conditions at the Meadowlands have often framed some of Eli Manning’s many meltdowns in the past. The 'Skins are out of the playoff mix but have been much more competitive the past four weeks since QB Rex Grossman returned to the lineup and Nebraska rookie RB Roy Helu began to provide a real infantry diversion. Washington might be worth a look at this price.

Green Bay at Kansas City (+14)
Arrowhead in 2011 is an unlikely place for unbeaten Green Bay to find a banana peel as it challenges the “perfect” 17-0 Dolphins of 1972. Moreover, the Pack has covered in 14 of its last 19 straight-up wins in a row. And the Chiefs have fired coach Todd Haley, replacing him with defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, which hardly seems an elixir for an offense hard-pressed to score more than one TD per week. The inflated spread could be a reason to take a look at Kansas City, but the Chiefs still seem completely outmatched.

New Orleans at Minnesota (+6½)
The Vikings are now a normal 2-11 team, with enough weaponry to put a scare into many foes. Minnesota loses absolutely nothing if backup QB Joe Webb has to again relieve a hurtin’ Christian Ponder, and Toby Gerhart has been more than serviceable in relief of Adrian Peterson. The Saints never seem to have it as easy on the road as they do at the Superdome, reflected in their 4-8 spread mark the last 12 as road chalk.

Seattle (+3½) at Chicago
Reputation might be trumping reality here, as the Seahawks are simply playing better at the moment than the Bears, who continue to flail away minus Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Chicago has lost three straight while Pete Carroll’s Seahawks have quietly covered nine of their last 11, including four straight on the road, with Marshawn Lynch gaining 100 yards or more on the ground in five of the last six games. If the better team at the moment (Seattle) is getting points, our preference is pretty clear.

Miami at Buffalo (+1½)
Lots of factors to consider here, including who might be at QB for Miami after Matt Moore’s concussion last week vs. the Eagles; do you trust J.P. Losman at the controls for a full game? And how will Miami react after coach Tony Sparano’s ouster earlier in the week? Still, Miami might be lesser of two evils here, and remember the Dolphins, thanks to their defense, did cover six straight before last week’s loss. Buffalo’s season has gone completely pear-shaped with six straight losses, so it’s a harder sell to back the Bills at the moment.

Carolina (+6½) at Houston)
Carolina can be a pest and Cam Newton at his best can cause problems for any defense. But Newton is still a rookie and capable of making bad mistakes as the two costly picks that hurt the Panthers last week vs. Atlanta. Houston rookie QB T.J. Yates continues to improve, has a top-flight ground game to rely upon, and a defense that ranks at the top of the league. With seven straight wins and covers, it’s hard to buck Houston, which continues to impress even with Yates at QB.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (+6½)
The winless Colts have at least demonstrated a pulse behind QB Dan Orlovsky the past two weeks, notching late backdoor covers vs. the Patriots and Ravens on the road. The question is if the number is high enough this week against the Titans to do the same. Tennessee loses little if fast-advancing rookie QB Jake Locker makes the start instead of Matt Hasselbeck, nursing a calf strain.

Cincinnati at St. Louis (+6½)
The young Bengals seem to be fading out of the AFC playoff race and have failed to cover a number in five weeks. Compared to the Rams' 2-11 pointspread mark this season, however, Cincy’s plight doesn’t look so bad. The case for the underdog Rams is simply an anti-Bengals-as-favorite-one at the moment.

Detroit at Oakland (+1)
This number has been bouncing around pick ’em to one-point either way for most of the week, so there isn’t much of a dog recommendation to make. Both enter slumping, with the Lions dropping six of their last eight vs. the spread and the Raiders off a pair of humiliating beatdowns at Miami and Green Bay.

New England at Denver (+6)
We can’t say much more about the Broncos and Tim Tebow that already hasn’t been said. Do you really want to go against this team, with its six straight improbable wins? There looks to be room in this number to support the Broncos even if Tebow doesn’t have the usual late-game magic this week.

NY Jets (+2½) at Philadelphia
There is a definite case to be made for the slight underdog Jets, on a 3-game win streak and with QB Mark Sanchez smoothing out his rough spots. Philly has Michael Vick back in the lineup and looked good last week in a 26-10 win at Miami, but the Birds have blown hot and cold all season and have only covered four of their last 12 games. The case for the Jets is substantive.

Cleveland (+6½) at Arizona
Before getting carried away with Arizona’s recent uptick that has kept the Cards’ playoff hope beating (ever so slightly), consider that of the Big Red’s six wins this season, all have been by seven points or fewer. Cleveland does not lose much if Seneca Wallace replaces Colt McCoy at QB, and a case can be made at this price, even with the Browns, against the low-variance Cards.

Baltimore at San Diego (+2½)
The Chargers have rallied down the stretch for Norv Turner before, but we’re not sure wins over lowly Jacksonville and Buffalo constitute a “buy” sign for the Bolts, still with a patchwork OL. The Ravens need to win, too, to stay ahead of the Steelers (now on tiebreakers) in the AFC North and not risk dropping to a wild card slot and the conference’s fifth seed. Ray Lewis likely to return this week for Baltimore, and we like some other 'dogs more than San Diego this week.

Pittsburgh (+2½) at San Francisco (Monday, Dec. 19)
This one is off of the boards at most Las Vegas wagering outlets due to Ben Roethlisberger’s questionable status. If Big Ben is in there, the Steelers might be worth a look plus whatever available points, but we’re not sure we would risk a recommendation if Charlie Batch were taking snaps on Monday night.

Best underdog plays this week: Washington, Minnesota, Seattle, Denver, Cleveland

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/12/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/11/11 15-*13-*0 53.57% +*350 Detail
12/08/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
12/05/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
12/04/11 15-*13-*0 53.57% +*350 Detail
12/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 32-*32-*0 50.00% -*1600

Thursday, December 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 8:20 PM ET Jacksonville +11.5 500

Atlanta - Under 42.5 500

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Trending: NFL year-long trends

With 14 weeks of the NFL season in the books, here are a variety of trends that have been established from this large body of work along with some Week 15 matchups that could fall into these categories:
Home Underdogs of 10 points or more are a perfect 6-0 ATS, including a pair of SU wins(Home Favorites of 10 points or more are an even 12-12 ATS).
Week 15: Kansas City (+13.5) hosting Green Bay

Home Underdogs of more than 6 points are 12-4 ATS (75%).
Week 15: Tampa Bay (+6.5) hosting Dallas
Minnesota (+6.5) hosting New Orleans
Indianapolis (+6.5) hosting Tennessee
St. Louis (+6.5) hosting Cincinnati
Kansas City (+13.5) hosting Green Bay

In all games in which the spread is 1 point or less, Road teams are 6-3 ATS (67%).
Week 15: Detroit (-1) at Oakland

The Under is 5-1 (83%) in games in which the total is 54 or more.
Week 15: None

The Over is 11-6 (65%) in games in which the total is less than 38.
Week 15: Seattle at Chicago (36 Total)
Cleveland at Arizona (36.5 Total)

When the Over receives more than 80% of the public support, the Over is 25-8 (76%).

When the Under receives 58% or more of the public support, the Under is 9-4 (78%).

When the Home team receives 80% or more of the public support, Home teams are 9-6 ATS (60%).

When the Road team receives 86% or more of the public support, Road teams are 7-2 ATS (78%).

When the difference between the opening line and the final line is 3.5 points or more, the side toward which the line moved is 10-3 ATS (77%).

In all Thursday games, the Under is 6-2 (75%).
Week 15: Jacksonville (10-3 Under) at Atlanta (9-4 Under)

In all Monday night games, Home teams are 9-6 ATS (60%). After starting the year 1-4 ATS (20%), Home teams are 8-2 ATS (80%) on Monday night since.
Week 15: San Francisco hosting Pittsburgh

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NFL | JACKSONVILLE at ATLANTA
Play Over - Any team against the total an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
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NFL | CINCINNATI at ST LOUIS
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a terrible defense (>=5.8 YPP) after 8+ games
86-62 since 1997. ( 58.1% | 0.0 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )
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NFL | NEW ENGLAND at DENVER
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after a win by 6 or less points
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

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Week 15 Preview: Titans at Colts

TENNESSEE TITANS (7-6)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-13)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Tennessee -6.5, Total: 41

Tennessee hasn’t swept Indianapolis since 2002, but it has a great chance to end this drought on Sunday against an 0-13 team.

The Titans have lost three in a row and seven of eight SU in Indianapolis, but the Colts are obviously a different team with Peyton Manning out. Tennessee has battled its way back into the playoff picture in large part because of a rejuvenated running game, and that will be especially important with QB Matt Hasselbeck (calf) questionable. After a miserable start to the year, RB Chris Johnson has had 130-plus yards in three of his past five games. Indianapolis has struggled in every facet of the game. QB Dan Orlovsky is likely to get another start, but after a strong outing in New England, he was shut down in Baltimore during a 24-10 loss. Indy has shown little improvement after a blowout this year, going 0-6 ATS after losing by double-digits. The pick here is TENNESSEE to continue that trend with a comfortable win.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also expect the Titans to cover the spread:

TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TENNESSEE 30.9, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 2*).

INDIANAPOLIS is 2-13 ATS (13.3%, -12.3 Units) after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half since 1992. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 16.4, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Tennessee is trying to keep its slim playoff hopes alive after losing to New Orleans last week. The Titans trail the Jets by one game in the AFC Wild Card race. Rookie Jake Locker performed admirably after replacing Hasselbeck last week, throwing for 282 yards (9.7 YPA), rushing for 36 more yards and scoring twice (1 TD run, 1 TD pass). Locker actually rushed the ball much better than Johnson, who finished with just 23 yards on 11 carries. He also struggled against Indianapolis earlier this year, gaining just 34 yards on 14 carries. Although Johnson has a pedestrian 3.7 YPC average in six career games versus the Colts, he has totaled 600 yards from scrimmage in these six meetings. And because Indy ranks third-to-last in the NFL in rush defense (144 YPG), Johnson has a great chance to succeed.

Orlovsky is still looking for his first NFL victory, as he dropped to 0-9 career as a starter with last week’s loss to the Ravens. In that game, Orlovsky was 17-of-37 for 136 yards (3.7 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT, a far cry from his 353-yard (9.5 YPA), 2-TD performance in New England the prior week. He didn’t get much help from the running game, which totaled 50 yards on 16 carries. Donald Brown led the way with a paltry 28 yards on nine carries, but lost six yards on his only reception. He’s hoping a step down in defensive talent from Baltimore to Tennessee yields positive results. The Titans rank 20th in the NFL in both rushing defense (122 YPG) and passing defense (240 YPG) this season.

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Week 15 Preview: Patriots at Broncos

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-3)

at DENVER BRONCOS (8-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 46.5

Two of the league’s hottest clubs duel in the thin air on Sunday when New England visits the Broncos.

The Patriots have always had some issues against Denver during the Tom Brady era. In his career, Brady is just 1-6 SU and ATS against the Broncos, including 0-3 as a favorite. And this year’s matchup will be especially interesting, not only because of the Tim Tebow factor, but because the Broncos’ defense has taken a big step up. Brady will have to deal with December weather in Denver, and with stud rookie LB Von Miller on the pass rush. The New England defense has struggled against opposing passing games, but Tebow has shown an improvement in throwing the football lately. The pick here is DENVER and Tebow to win again.

There’s also a three-star FoxSheets trend favoring the home Broncos:

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (DENVER) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less last game. (35-11 since 1983.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*).

The Pats are riding a five-game win streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of these victories. Brady has been nearly perfect during the surge, throwing for 314 YPG, 13 TD and just one interception. TE Rob Gronkowski has caught nine of these TD passes, and now has 15 on the season, an NFL record for tight ends. Brady also has the league’s receiving leader, Wes Welker (1,339 yards), at his disposal. In terms of the ground game, the Pats have only 44 carries (152 yards, 3.5 YPC) in the past two weeks, but a lot of that has to do with possession times of 24:21 and 23:51 in the two games. Denver’s run-stop unit is below average (124 YPG, 21st in NFL), and has allowed 158 rushing YPG in the past three games, which could prompt the Patriots to establish the run. However, both OT Sebastian Vollmer (back) and OG Dan Connolly (groin) are questionable for Sunday’s game, which could affect the team’s ability to chew up yards on the ground.

Denver has strung together six straight wins (5-0-1 ATS), limiting four of these opponents to 13 points or less. Tebow has averaged a mere 146 passing yards during the win streak, but has an impressive 7 TD and 1 INT in this span. The Broncos now lead the NFL in rushing offense (161 YPG) and were encouraged to see Washington run for 170 yards against New England on Sunday. Although, before Sunday’s contest, the Pats had a streak of eight straight games of holding their opponent to fewer than 120 rushing yards.

Both teams have a couple of injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball. For New England, LB Brandon Spikes (knee) and S Patrick Chung (knee) are both listed as questionable. Denver DE Robert Ayers and FS Brian Dawkins are both questionable with undisclosed injuries.

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Week 15 Preview: Jets at Eagles

NEW YORK JETS (8-5)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-8)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 44.5

The Eagles look to snap a three-game home losing skid when they host a red-hot Jets team seeking its fourth straight victory.

This is a battle of two of the NFL’s most disappointing teams. The Jets are still in the thick of the playoff hunt despite erratic play all season. They’ve not been good on the road, going 2-4 SU and ATS, and they continue to search for an identity on offense. They’ve generated 350-plus yards of offense just once in their past 10 games and have just one win against a current .500 or better team (Dallas 7-6). However, the Eagles are well below .500 at 5-8, and despite scoring 26 points in Miami last week, they only gained 239 total yards (51 rushing) with QB Michael Vick back on the field. But Vick will be tested by a great Jets secondary, and don’t overlook New York’s run defense, which has allowed 100 yards or less to six of its past seven opponents. The pick here is NEW YORK to win on the road.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Jets:

N.Y. JETS are 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was N.Y. JETS 21.1, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite a pedestrian 299 total YPG during its three-game win streak, New York has piled up 99 points in this time frame. QB Mark Sanchez scored four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing) in last week’s 37-10 rout over Kansas City, giving him nine scores in three weeks. RB Shonn Greene is also on a roll with 295 rushing yards (5.0 YPC), 96 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the past three games. One bit of bad news for the Jets is that starting SS Jim Leonhard suffered what appears to be a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. The absence of the heady Leonhard will make life easier on Vick and the rest of Philly’s passing game.

The Eagles have to be concerned that the NFC’s leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, was held to 38 yards on 27 carries last week. Couple that with Vick’s unwillingness run (two carries against Miami) in fear of taking a shot to the ribs in the open field, especially since Vick isn’t looking to run anymore. He carried the ball just twice against the Dolphins for nine yards, and showed that being a pocket passer isn’t his style. Vick completed only 15-of-30 passes for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Eagles have never lost to the Jets franchise, going 8-0 all-time versus New York.

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Las Vegas Money Moves

December 15, 2011

The game of the week on paper appears to be Monday night’s key matchup with Pittsburgh (10-3) traveling to San Francisco (10-3). However, if letting the people speak by volume of tickets written on a single game, New England’s (10-3) visit to Denver (8-5) is the overwhelming choice as the must-see matchup of Week 15.
And it doesn’t help the Las Vegas sport books have the Steelers-Niners battle off the board due to the status of Pitt quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle. Roethlisberger is officially listed as ‘probable’ for the game, although Lucky’s sports books -- the one book that has had the game up all week -- currently has a number up as though Big Ben is extremely doubtful.

“From everything I’m reading in the Pittsburgh papers, I’m booking it as if Roethlisberger is not going to play,” said Lucky’s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro who hails from Pittsburgh. “I’ve seen this play out with him before and not practicing on Wednesday is the first major indicator he won’t be playing. I just told our guys to move quick on the game as more information becomes official.”

Lucky’s opened with the 49ers as 1-point favorites and currently have them at -3 (-120).

Should Roethlisberger not be able to go, the Steelers would have Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon as back-up options which would further take some luster off the match-up.

The 49ers have lost two of their last three games coming in, while the Steelers are currently on a four game winning streak and have won eight of their last nine.

“This is a big game for the 49ers and wrong time of the year for them to start slumping,” said Vaccaro.

Now, back to the Broncos and Patriots. You’d be hard pressed to not have some kind of emotion one way or another on this game because it’s been crammed down our throats all week if watching any sports show or listening to talk radio. The Tim Tebow-fever has swept the nation and people can’t seem to get enough which is why program directors of all kind are keeping the topic on a continual cycle.

The biggest question this week is why the Patriots are 6 ½-point road favorites. The Wynn Resort opened the Patriots -5 ½ and were bet up the ladder with large money a couple times to get to their current number, which answers the why part.

But think about it, just last week the Patriots were -7 ½ at Washington, a team that had lost seven of eight games coming in. This week they are now laying -6 ½ at the home of a team that has won seven of eight.

The public is currently taking the Patriots at a 3-to-2 ratio in ticket counts at the betting windows with the feeling that the Patriots and QB Tom Brady will be a major upgrade in talent from the teams Denver has been beating. Even with the Patriots allowing a league worst 416 yards per game, the Brady factor is what is driving the bets here.

However, Denver hasn’t been too kind to Brady over his career. It’s surprising to see that he is only 1-6 against the Broncos while having dominated just about every other team in the league. The Broncos edge hasn’t just been during the Brady reign, either, as Denver has won 17 of the last 21 meetings.

There are a couple of pivotal games in the NFC East this week beginning with the Cowboys (7-6) who travel to Tampa Bay (4-9) on Saturday for a night game. On Sunday morning the Giants (7-6) play the Redskins (4-9) and then later in the day the Jets (8-5) play the Eagles (5-8). As hard as it may be to fathom, the Eagles still have a chance at winning the division with a few scenarios going their way, which begin with having Dallas and the Giants both losing.

We almost have a Week 17 type of situation here where the Eagles will know what they’re playing for by the time their game starts. Should the Cowboys and Giants both win, it’s all over for the Eagles regardless of what they do Sunday. Unlike Week 17 teams in the playoff hunt, the Eagles have known for some time that their hopes were minimal for about the last two months. Having it become a reality finally shouldn’t be too much of a sting to their performance.

The Eagles opened as -1 ½-point favorites and are now -3 (EVEN). The Cowboys opened -6 ½ and are now -7 and the Giants have stayed steady at the Wynn at -7 (EVEN) with the Hilton having the low number in town at -6 ½.

The Buccaneers are an interesting look this week just because of a similar situation they were in earlier this season. In Week 5, the 49ers pounded the Buccaneers 48-3. The following week the Saints came to town as six-point favorites and Tampa Bay won 26-20. Last week Jacksonville put up 41 and we’ll have to see if the Bucs respond similarly against Dallas with the same type of spread against them as the Saints game.

The Wynn opened the Packers (13-0) at -14 (EVEN) when almost everyone else opened -13 ½. The Wynn is currently -13 ½ while the number is steady at -14 at most shops. There won’t be too many Chiefs (5-8) tickets out there this week, but there is a little question attached to bettors’ minds before making a bet on the Packers due to what happened to wide receiver Greg Jennings (knee) last week. How far ahead will the Packers be before resting their key players to avoid injury? And once they do call the dogs off, does it set up an opportunity for a back-door cover by the Chiefs with a meaningless late touchdown?

Vaccaro doesn’t think all that will matter just because it’s the Chiefs.

“The first thing to consider in this game before we start talking about all the other Packers intangibles is how bad the Chiefs are. They’ve scored 45 points in their last six games and now they have a coaching gone. That team is a mess right now,” said Vaccaro.

“As for the Packers, I think they’re going for it all and embracing the undefeated thing and wouldn’t expect them to change that despite Jennings getting hurt last week. I could see this game quickly going from a 14-3 game to 31-3 rather quickly like what happened to the Raiders last week.”

The Raiders (7-6) opened as one-point favorites against the Lions (8-5), but Detroit money quickly moved the Lions to one-point road favorites.

The Dolphins-Bills game has been off the board at just about every sports book because of the status of Matt Moore who is likely to miss with a concussion. J.P. Losman took all the snaps in Wednesday’s practice for the Dolphins. Lucky’s is the only book in town to have it on the board and offer the game at PICK ’EM.

[StarDust Bum]

Weary of the West

December 15, 2011

Three weeks of regular season remain in the NFL and while the majority of games late in the year become meaningless, opportunities are still abound.

A particular angle that gamblers follow in the NFL is the time zone trend. Bettors like to fade teams traveling, especially to opposite coasts. I don’t consider a one-hour time zone difference to be a big deal, but when you have teams traveling from East to West coasts and vice versa, then you can see a big difference in play.

When you delve into it further, it’s been said that the tougher of the two trips is going from East to West. It makes sense since clubs in the Pacific Time Zone aren’t used to playing at 1:00 p.m. ET, which would be 10:00 a.m. ET for the West Coast team club. Most would believe it certainly seems a lot harder than playing at 1:00 p.m. PT for the East Coast clubs, right?

The obvious answer is yes, but that hasn’t been the case this season.

The NFL has five teams -- Arizona, Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle-- that play in the Pacific Time Zone.

We checked the numbers and this group has done well when they host teams from the Eastern Time Zone.

Arizona Cardinals
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Sept. 11 Carolina Panthers -7 (37) Won 28-21 Push-Over
Oct. 2 New York Giants +1.5 (45) Lost 27-31 Loss-Over
Oct. 23 Pittsburgh Steelers +4 (46) Lost 20-32 Loss-Over




San Francisco 49ers
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Sept. 18 Dallas Cowboys +3 (41) Lost 24-27 Push-Over
Oct. 9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (41) Won 48-3 Win-Over
Oct. 30 Cleveland Browns -9 (38) Won 20-10 Win-Under
Nov. 13 New York Giants -4 (43) Won 27-20 Win-Over




Seattle Seahawks
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Oct. 2 Atlanta Falcons +6 (39) Lost 28-30 Win-Over
Oct. 30 Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (37) Lost 12-34 Loss-Over
Nov.13 Baltimore Ravens +7 (39) Won 22-17 Win-Push
Nov.27 Washington Redskins -3 (37) Lost 17-23 Loss-Over
Dec. 1 Philadelphia Eagles +3 (43) Won 31-14 Win-Over




Oakland Raiders
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Sept. 25 New York Jets +2.5 (40) Won 34-24 Win-Over
Oct. 2 New England Patriots +6.5 (55) Lost 19-31 Loss-Under
Oct. 16 Cleveland Browns -7 (45) Won 24-17 Push-Under




San Diego Chargers
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Oct. 2 Miami Dolphins -6.5 (45) Won 26-16 Win-Under
Dec. 11 Buffalo Bills -7 (49) Won 37-10 Win-Under



Head coach Norv Turner and the Chargers have underachieved this season – again – yet San Diego is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread against teams from the East.

San Francisco has been solid too, going 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread. And, the lone loss could’ve easily been a winner against Dallas in Week 2.

The Cardinals (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) have struggled the most at home against East Coast clubs, but they managed to save face on the road. Arizona has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season and you should make a note that the club heads to Cincinnati next week.

Overall, the squads playing in the Pacific Time Zone have gone 10-7 SU (59%) and 9-5-3 ATS (64%) versus teams from the Eastern Time Zone. Also, the ‘over’ has gone 11-5-1 (63%) in these affairs as well.

So why do we tell you this information?

In Week 15, you have four matchups where teams are traveling from East to West, and two of them will be featured under the lights:

Cleveland at Arizona
Detroit at Oakland
Baltimore at San Diego
Pittsburgh at San Francisco

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/15/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
12/12/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
12/11/11 15-*13-*0 53.57% +*350 Detail
12/08/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
12/05/11 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
12/04/11 15-*13-*0 53.57% +*350 Detail
12/01/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
Totals 32-*34-*0 48.48% -*2700

Saturday, December 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas -7 500

Tampa Bay - Over 47.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Week 15 Preview: Cowboys at Buccaneers

DALLAS COWBOYS (7-6)

at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-9)


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 47.5

The Cowboys are desperate for a win and there is no better NFC team to be facing right now than the Buccaneers, who have lost seven straight games (1-6 ATS).

The struggling Bucs are once again trying to figure out how to win at home. They’ve lost three straight at Raymond James (SU and ATS), the last two in ugly fashion (outscored by a combined 75-28 by Houston and Carolina). They’re now 5-10 ATS at home over the past two seasons, and their porous run defense figures to have trouble stopping a Dallas running game that was still effective with RB Felix Jones replacing injured DeMarco Murray last week. Considering the new, conservative Tony Romo, that should play into the Cowboys’ hands. The pick here is DALLAS to win and cover.

This FoxSheets give two more reasons to fade the Buccaneers:

TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 17.7, OPPONENT 26.4 - (Rating = 2*).

TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (9.1%, -10.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 13.8, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 2*).

The Over is a combined 7-3 in the past five games for each team (4-1 Tampa Bay, 3-2 Dallas), and this three-star FoxSheets trend urges bettors to bank on the OVER for Saturday’s game:

Play Over - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. (37-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The Cowboys must quickly forget about blowing a 12-point lead with under four minutes left in regulation to the division rival Giants. Tampa Bay should oblige, as Dallas has beaten the Bucs in the past three meetings (SU and ATS), including the last matchup in 2009. Romo threw for 353 yards and 3 TD in that game, leading the Cowboys to a 34-21 win. Romo is also coming off a 321-yard, four-touchdown performance against New York where he averaged more than 10 yards per attempt. He now has thrown for 26 TD and 9 INT on the year. After Murray went down with a fractured ankle, RB Felix Jones stepped in and rushed for 106 yards on 16 carries, while adding six catches for 31 yards. He’s in line for another productive night against a weak Bucs run defense (140 YPG, 28th in NFL), that has allowed 160 rushing YPG over the past three contests.

Tampa Bay actually had a 14-0 lead last Sunday before surrendering 41 unanswered points to a Jaguars team that had failed to surpass 20 points in any of their first dozen games. The Bucs turned the ball over seven times and now have 23 giveaways in the past seven weeks. QB Josh Freeman threw two interceptions on Sunday and now leads the NFL with 18 picks on the season. He could easily regain his confidence against a Cowboys pass defense that has surrendered 291 passing YPG in the past four games, which includes allowing Eli Manning to throw for 400 yards. The Dallas run defense has not been as kind, holding opponents to 91 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC in the past four games. This does not bode well for inconsistent Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount who has three 100-yard rushing games and four games of less than 35 rushing yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, December 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -7 500
St. Louis - Under 38.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +1 500
Buffalo - Under 41.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -5.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 46.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +6.5 500
Indianapolis - Under 41.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -3.5 500
Chicago - Over 34.5 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -10.5 500
Kansas City - Over 45.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +6 500
Houston - Under 45.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -7 500
Minnesota - Over 53.5 500

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +3 500
Oakland - Over 47.5 500

Cleveland - 4:15 PM ET Arizona -6.5 500
Arizona - Under 37.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Jets +2.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 44 500

New England - 4:15 PM ET New England -7 500
Denver - Under 47.5 500

Baltimore - 8:20 PM ET San Diego +1 500
San Diego - Over 44 500

[Kaptain]

gl today BUM....as always, thanks, aND KICK SOME BUTT MY MAN......

I like a lots of those BoldFaCE ONES.......