NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/17 - 1/9)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, December 6

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Tale of the tape: Kansas State vs. Arkansas
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Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 63)

Offense

Kansas State’s run-heavy offense leaned heavily on quarterback Collin Klein, who ran the ball 293 times this season for 1,099 yards and 26 touchdowns. Running back John Hubert rumbled for 933 yards, helping the Wildcats rank 25th nationally averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, but the passing offense ranked 105th. Klein completed only 145 passes all season totaling 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Wildcats average 33.1 points per game.

The Razorbacks’ attack is more traditional with quarterback Tyler Wilson completing 63.1 percent of his passes for more than 3,400 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions. Jarius Wright was his main target with 1,029 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, going for 16.3 yards per catch. Running backs Dennis Johnson and Ronnie Wingo combined for more than 1,000 yards on the ground to keep defenses honest. Arkansas averaged 37.4 points per game, ranking 15th in the country.

Edge: Razorbacks


Defense

Arkansas’ defense didn’t live up to its preseason hype, but the Razorbacks still ranked 52nd in total defense and allowed only 22.8 points per game (25th nationally). The issue in this matchup will be Arkansas’ shoddy run defense that allowed 174.3 yards per game on the ground and 20 rushing touchdowns. The Razorbacks’ 22 sacks were three better than Kansas State managed, but the Wildcats have 18 interceptions compared to 11 for Arkansas.

Kansas State’s total defense sits 74th allowing 398.8 yards and 68th in scoring defense allowing 27.8 points per game. The Wildcats’ 105th passing defense that yields 267.2 yards per game could be in for a workout too.

Edge: Razorbacks


Special teams

Arkansas return specialist Joe Adams averages 16.9 yards per punt and has already returned three punts for touchdowns this season. Kansas State is strong defending kick returns, but is only average in punt return defense. The Wildcats rank 10th nationally in kickoff returns but the loss of freshman Tyler Lockett is huge as he has two returns for touchdowns and averages 35.2 yards per return. The kicking game is basically even with Zach Hocker hitting 16 of 19 field goals for Arkansas while Anthony Cantele is 17 of 22. Adams likely gives the Razorbacks an edge.

Edge: Razorbacks


Word on the street

"I thought the game we played here this year really helped us throughout our season. We came into halftime and we were down 18 points, but our team rallied together. Our leadership really showed up. To be able to really bring out the competitive spirit that our team showed from that point on, I think carried us throughout the season.''- Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino.

“In putting game plans together I started to find we were putting in a ton of quarterback run game. And at times I had to catch myself and say, ‘Hold on a second. John Hubert has a chance to be a 1,000-yard rusher.’ You’ve got to make sure you give him some touches, too.” – Kansas State offensive coordinator Dana Dimel told reporters about his Cotton Bowl game plan.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Cotton Bowl

10-2 Arkansas' two losses came to the two teams playing for a national title Monday night, Alabama (38-14)/LSU (41-17), both on road. Hogs are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year; they've lost three of last four in bowls (0-4 vs spread) with only win in OT as 7-point favorites vs East Carolina in Liberty Bowl two years ago. Kansas State lost its last three bowls, allowing 35-37-36 points- their last win was '02 Holiday Bowl. Wildcats are 5-0 this year in games decided by 4 or less points; they are 7-1 vs spread as underdogs, with six SU wins. K-State allowed 58-52 in its two losses to the two Oklahoma schools. SEC bowl favorites are 3-3 this year, 21-14 since 2006. K-State is first Big X team that is underdog this bowl season; since '06, they're 4-9 vs the spread as bowl dogs, 17-28 against spread overall. Hard to lay nine points in a meaningless bowl.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Compass Bowl

SMU is happy to still have June Jones as coach (he almost went off to Arizona State); Pitt lost its coach (Graham wound up taking ASU's job), so counting interim coach, Panthers will have had five coaches in three years. Pitt beat Kentucky in this bowl LY, making Big East teams 5-0 in this bowl in SEC country; since 2006, Big East bowl teams are 23-9 in bowl games, 5-0 vs Conference USA teams, 11-9 as a favorite. Underdog covered this bowl three of last four years. Favorite is 5-0 vs spread in Pitt's last five bowls, with Panthers winning last two- they're 1-3 away from home this year, with only win at Louisville. SMU split bowls last two years, allowing 10-16 points. Big East is 3-1 in its bowls this year despite being underdog in all four games. Since 2008, C-USA teams are 11-11 in bowls, 7-5 vs spread when a bowl underdog. Can't endorse club whose players feel abandoned by constantly moving coaching carousel.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, January 7

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What bettors need to know: BBVA Compass Bowl
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SMU Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5, 46.5)

BBVA COMPASS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Pittsburgh enters without head coach Todd Graham, who left to take the reins at Arizona State. Pitt defensive coordinator Keith Patterson will serve as interim head coach.

2. SMU and Pittsburgh have split their previous five matchups, 2-2-1. The two schools have not played since the Mustangs eked out a 7-3 victory in the 1983 Cotton Bowl, the lone meeting between the two since 1948.

3. Pittsburgh is playing in the BBVA Compass Bowl for the second straight year, having defeated Kentucky 27-10 last season. SMU is playing in its third consecutive bowl game after going 25 years without a postseason appearance.

TV: ESPN

LINE: Pittsburgh opened as high as -5.5 but has been bet down to as low as a field-goal favorite. The total has fallen from 49 to 47 points.

ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (7-5, 5-3 C-USA, 4-8 ATS): The Mustangs have lost four of six since a 5-1 start, dropping their final three road games by a combined score of 102-17. A major part of the slide has been SMU's inability to take care of the football. SMU ranks dead last among FBS schools in turnover margin (minus-1.42), with 31 giveaways overall. Making matters worse is the loss of junior RB Zach Line, who had 1,244 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending toe injury. Senior WR Cole Beasley (79 rec., 954 yards) paces a solid air attack.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (6-6, 4-3 Big East, 7-5 ATS): The Panthers have been a Jekyll-and-Hyde outfit all season long. QB Tino Sunseri has been erratic, throwing 10 interceptions against 10 touchdowns, but a porous offensive line can shoulder plenty of the blame. Pittsburgh has allowed 57 sacks this season, one of the highest single-season totals in FBS history. Defensively, the Panthers are nearly as adept at getting to the quarterback, ranking fourth nationally with 3.25 sacks per game. Sophomore DL Aaron Donald leads the team with 10 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Mustangs last six games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Panthers last five bowl games.

PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 19, SMU 16 -- Even without Graham on the sideline, the Panthers should be able to grind out a win against a mistake-prone group of Mustangs playing without their top offensive threat.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Sunday, January 8

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What bettors need to know: Go Daddy.com Bowl
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Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Northern Illinois Huskies (+1.5, 65)

GO DADDY.COM BOWL STORYLINES

1. Arkansas State has a new coach in Gus Malzahn, the former offensive coordinator at Auburn. But Malzahn, who tutored Heisman Trophy winner Cam Newton and helped the Tigers win the 2010 national championship, will not be on the sidelines. Arkansas State will be led by interim head coach David Gunn, who was recently asked by Malzahn to return and be a part of the staff. Gunn was named interim coach after Hugh Freeze resigned to become head coach at Ole Miss.

2. Arkansas State has won nine straight thanks to a balanced approach. The Red Wolves became the first team in school history to record 5,000 yards of offense, scored 30 or more points in eight games this season and more than 45 in their last two contests. They also rank No. 1 in in the Sun Belt in total defense and scoring defense.

3. Northern Illinois QB Chandler Harnish has been impressive under pressure. He’s coming off perhaps his best performance, leading the Huskies to a 23-20 comeback win against Ohio in the MAC championship game. The four-year starter was voted the MAC’s Player of the Year and needs only 45 rushing yards to become the third FBS quarterback to rush for 3,000 yards and pass for 8,000 yards in his career.

TV: ESPN

WEATHER: There is a 29 percent chance of rain in Mobile, Alabama. Temperatures will be in the high 50s.

LINE: Arkansas State has moved slightly from -1 to -1.5. The total has jumped from 62 to 65 points since post.

ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (10-2, 8-0 Sun Belt, 10-2 ATS): The Red Wolves feature the Players of the Year on offense and defense from the Sun Belt Conference. Quarterback Ryan Aplin led the conference in total offense with 320 yard per game. Aplin threw for 269.6 yards per game and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for an additional 10 scores. He became only the second player in conference history to record 3,000 yards of total offense in two different seasons. The defensive leader is lineman Brandon Joiner, who led the league with 12 sacks and had 15.5 tackles for loss. Other first-team all-conference players include receiver Dwayne Frampton (90 catches, 1,125 yards, six TDs), offensive lineman Tom Castilaw, linebacker Demario Davis (65 tackles), and defensive backs Darryl Feemster (five interceptions) and Kelcie McCray (62 tackles, four interceptions).

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-3, 7-1 MAC, 5-8 ATS): The Huskies revolve around QB Chandler Harnish, who led the MAC in rushing (112.6 yards). Harnish rushed for 1,351 yards and threw for 2,692 yards and 23 touchdowns, with only four interceptions. He’s got an outstanding offensive line, led by center Scott Wedige and tackle Trevor Olson, both all-MAC selections. The line hasn’t allowed a sack all season. Running back Jasmin Hopkins ran for 872 yards and scored a team-leading 15 TDs. The young defense is led by linebacker Pat Schiller (108 tackles, 10 tackles for loss), end Sean Progar (11 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks) and safety Jimmie Ward (93 tackles). Kicker Mathew Sims hit 18 of 23 field goals and scored a school-record 111 points.

TRENDS:

* Red Wolves are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last nine neutral-site games.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Red Wolves' last 16 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-1 in Huskies' last eight neutral-site games.

PREDICTION: Northern Illinois 34, Arkansas State 28 – Two-way threat Harnish closes his remarkable career with a bowl victory.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Go Daddy Bowl

Arkansas State did so well this year their coach left and they're playing this game shorthanded on sidelines, with Freeze off to Ole Miss after only one year as HC in Jonesboro, to be replaced by Gus Malzahn, the Auburn OC. Northern Illinois won MAC title game after trailing 20-0 at the half to Ohio; this is fourth straight bowl, but first for HC Doeren. MAC teams are 5-3 in this bowl last eight years, beating Sun Belt clubs last two years (44-41ot/35-21); MAC teams are 3-1 in bowls this year after being a combined 4-17 the previosu five years; they're 4-12 in last 16 tries as bowl underdog. Sun Belt teams split pair of bowls this year, with underdog covering both games. This is one of rare bowls where favorites have done well (6-1-1 vs spread last eight years).

[Udog]

Alabama-LSU betting news: Action surges on Tide

Alabama is steamy hot at Nevada and offshore sportsbooks.

Multiple bookmakers bumped the Crimson Tide up to -2 over the weekend, including Coast Casinos race and sports manager Bob Scucci.

“Around New Year’s Eve, we started to get some sharp money on Alabama, and we quickly moved the line to Alabama -1.5,” Scucci told ***********. “We are currently at Alabama -2, where we haven’t gotten any more sharp action, but all the public money seems to be on LSU.”

The Atlantis Reno and South Point also were offering -2 as of Sunday afternoon, as were several offshore sportsbooks.

Scucci also believes that professional bettors may be pounding Alabama to try to make the line get to -3, so they can grab the other side.

Big bets have been coming in on both sides at the Las Vegas Wynn and have sportsbook director John Avello predicting the highest handle ever for a BCS National Championship Game.

Avello has taken six-figure bets on LSU and Alabama, “not just one or two, but a few,” he added.

“The matchup is right, the spread it right, which makes it a great game to bet, I think it’s going to be the most-bet national championship game ever.”

The Superbook at the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino had twice as many LSU bets as Alabama, but had the bigger bets were mostly on the Tide, director Jay Kornegay reported Sunday afternoon.

“More money on Alabama, but more tickets on LSU, which is what we expected,” Kornegay said. “We’ve taken more than a handful of five-figure bets, Most of them were on Alabama, until we moved to -2; then we took a big one on LSU, and now we’re back at -1.5.”

Kornegay said the betting action at his book was about average for a BCS title game.

“Hopefully, we’ll get a late rush tomorrow, but despite all the hype the media is trying to give this thing it’s about average. I think people are interested in watching it, but I just don’t think they’re overly excited about it. It’s just lukewarm outside of SEC country. I think we would have more action if it was Oklahoma State vs. LSU.”

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 9

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BCS National Championship: What bettors need to know
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers (+2, 40.5)

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME STORYLINES

1. The SEC will claim its sixth straight national title at the conclusion of an epic rematch between No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama. Les Miles’ undefeated Tigers nipped Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide, 9-6, in overtime on Nov. 5 in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Miles is looking for his second national title; Saban is after his third.

2. Not a lot has changed since the November meeting. The same 22 players that started for Alabama against LSU the first time also started the Tide’s rout of Auburn in the regular-season finale. The only significant change in LSU’s lineup is at quarterback. Jarrett Lee started against Alabama, but was quickly replaced by current starter Jordan Jefferson. It’s unquestionably Jefferson’s team now.

3. Alabama is No. 1 in total defense; LSU is No. 2. So a shootout is unlikely. Neither offense amassed 300 yards or reached the end zone in the first meeting. Special teams might be the difference, and LSU has the advantage. The Crimson Tide missed three field goals in the first game.

4. This is a historically close championship game with Las Vegas sportsbooks listing the pointspread at Pick ‘em in late December. No BCS National Championship Game or Super Bowl has ever had a closing line of Pick 'em.

5. LSU has played the toughest schedule in the nation. The Tigers’ opponents are 78-44. Alabama’s opponents went 68-45.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, Monday, Jan. 9.

LINE: LSU opened as a 1.5-point favorite but action on Alabama flipped the spread. The Crimson Tide recently jumped to -2. The total opened at 40 points and has remained steady with a few 39.5-point and 40.5-point numbers out there.

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-1, 7-1 SEC, 8-4 ATS): RB Trent Richardson led the Tide in rushing and receiving against LSU. He’ll need some help from sophomore quarterback A.J. McCarron and a receiving corps that lacks a go-to guy for the Tide offense to have a better showing this time. In his first year starting, McCarron has been solid, but unspectacular. He completed 66.7 percent of his pass attempts with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hit 16 of 28 passes against LSU with an interception.

Even if Alabama’s offense struggles, its defense is very capable of keeping the Tide in the game. As many as five starters are projected to be early NFL draft picks, led by like strong safety Mark Barron and star linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw.

Kicker Jeremy Shelley has made 16 of 20 field goals with a long of 37. He has missed both his attempts of 40 yards or longer.

ABOUT LSU (13-0, 8-0 SEC, 10-3 ATS): LSU’s defense is equally talented, featuring a loaded secondary led by game-changers Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu.

Offensively, Jefferson, a dual-threat, has been a sparkplug. He was suspended the first four games for altercation outside a Baton Rouge establishment and was used sparingly behind Lee until the Alabama game. The Tigers averaged 44 points with Jefferson starting their last four games.

Don’t underestimate LSU’s advantage on special teams, which includes punter Brad Wingo. LSU is allowing .35 yards per punt return, thanks to Wingo’s booming hang-time.

Kicker Drew Alleman has made 16 of 18 field goals and is 3 of 3 from beyond 40 yards.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Crimson Tide's last five Bowl games.
* Over is 5-2-1 in Tigers' last eight games overall.

PREDICTION: LSU 24, Alabama 20 – Another overtime thriller between these two evenly matched teams wouldn’t be surprising. LSU’s advantage in special teams could be the difference again.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 9

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Tale of the tape: Alabama vs. LSU
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers (2, 40)

Offense

The LSU Tigers average 38.5 points and 374.5 yards per game thanks to a strong rushing attack. Michael Ford and Spencer Ware combined for more than 1,400 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns this year while quarterback Jordan Jefferson added 248 rushing yards and three scores. Jefferson missed four games due to suspension and finished with 684 yards and three touchdowns, but Jarrett Lee was more of a passing threat, totaling 1306 passing yards and 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions while completing 62.3 percent of his attempts. Rueben Randall is the club’s best receiving threat. He averaged better than 18 yards per catch, pulling in 50 grabs for 904 yards and eight touchdowns.

Alabama does most of its damage on the ground as well. The Tide rank 14th nationally putting up 219.8 yards per game thanks to a huge season from Trent Richardson. The junior averaged six yards per carry and had 1583 rushing yards and 20 majors on the ground this season. He also chipped in 327 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback averaged 8.2 yards per attempt and completed 66.7 percent of his passes while piling up 2,400 passing yards and 16 touchdowns compared to five interceptions. The Tide managed 36 points per game.

Edge: LSU


Defense

Both defenses are spectacular, but Alabama holds the decided edge after ranking first in the nation in total defense, passing defense, rushing defense and scoring defense. Opposing quarterbacks complete just 48.3 percent of their passes against the Tide and the team allows only 8.8 points per game. Alabama held its opposition to fewer than 10 points eight different times this season and allows only 191.3 yards per game, more than 60 fewer yards than LSU’s second-ranked total defense.

The Tigers were also second in points allowed per game (10.5) and were third in rushing defense giving up 85.5 yards per game. LSU does get to the quarterback better than Alabama with 37 sacks on the year compared to 26 for the Tide and the Tigers have 18 interceptions to 12 for the Tide. Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo combined for 17 sacks on the year while Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu give LSU a major 1-2 punch in the secondary as first-team AP All-Americans.

Edge: Alabama


Special teams

Special teams errors killed Alabama in the first meeting of the season between these two teams and may be a major factor again this time. The Tide missed four field goals in that loss and they hit just 62.1 percent of their field goal tries this season while punter Cody Mandell was mediocre with a 38.9-yard average. Marquis Maze averages 12.4 yard per punt return and 28.5 yards on kick returns, though Richardson could see more work in this area.

LSU kicker Drew Alleman hit 16 of his 18 field goal attempts this season and punter Brad Wing averaged 44.1 yards per boot. Claiborne consistently gives LSU strong field position averaging 26.1 yards per kickoff return while Mathieu averages 16.2 yards on punt returns and has two majors.

Edge: LSU


Word on the street

"Not only do we have the support of Louisiana but we have the New Orleans Saints, too. This place will be rocking. Saints people may not even leave their seats. They may just stay here." – LSU defensive end Sam Montgomery on playing Monday’s game at the Superdome in New Orleans.

"I love my kickers. We've got to put them in situations that are good for everybody. We put them in low-percentage plays and that's our fault. It's a funny position because that's all you do. You can be either a hero or a villain. Some people have blamed our loss solely on the kickers and that's untrue." - Tide offensive tackle Barrett Jones.


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[Freepic]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

BCS Championship Game

First meeting: LSU (+4.5) won 9-6 at Alabama, when Crimson Tide was 2-6 on field goals; Tigers outrushed Bama 148-96. Last time teams met in bowl after playing during season was Washington-Nebraska LY, when Cornhuskers killed U-Dub during season, then got upset in the bowl.

LSU is 9-3 in its last 12 games vs Alabama, with these teams both play on grass, but this game is on Superdome's carpet, which figures to favor LSU's blazing-fast defense. Before 9-6 game, average total in previous five series meetings was 49.8. Don't forget, LSU's coach for some of the earlier wins against Alabama was Nick Saban, before he went to Miami.

Alabama won three of last four bowls, with loss coming to Utah here in Sugar Bowl three years ago 31-17 (-9); they won national title two years ago. LSU won four of last five bowls, scoring 38+ points in all five wins. Only loss was 19-17 to Penn State in Capital One Bowl two years ago. Tigers won national title four years ago.

Oregon-West Va-Arkansas are only teams to score more than 11 points against LSU this year; they've got a great defense, which masks all the deficiencies their offense has. McCarron is first-year starting QB for the Tide. Neither team played many close games; they crushed opponents.

Biggest factor in LSU's favor is because Miles is so quirky, his teams play loose in big spots, moreso than the ultra-tense Saban, who could make coffee nervous. Tremendous amount of pressure on kicking group from Alabama (snapper/holder/kicker). I don't think LSU winning first meeting makes winning this game any harder.

[Udog]

Best BCS National Championship game prop bets

The BCS Championship Game isn’t quite as big as the Super Bowl but prop bets are a fun option for newbie bettors and degenerates alike and bookmakers don’t leave us short of options.

Here’s a look at some of the more interesting prop bets for LSU vs. Alabama:

Who wins the coin toss

Alabama -115
LSU -115

Will there be a score in the first 7:30 of the first quarter?

Yes -130
No +100

First score of the game will be

Touchdown -175
Field goal or safety +145

First turnover of the game will be

Fumble +125
Interception -155
No turnovers in game +800

Will a special teams or defensive TD be scored

Yes +160
No -200

Will either team score three unanswered times in game

Yes -172
No +142

The longest touchdown score in the game will be

Over 39.5 yards (-115)
Under 39.5 yards (-115)

McCarron vs. Jefferson: Most passing yards

A.J. McCarron -40.5 passing yards (-110)
Jordan Jefferson +40.5 passing yards (-120)

Total rushing yards made by Trent Richardson

Over 110.5 rushing yards (-110)
Under 110.5 rushing yards (-120)

Total rush + receiving yards by Eddie Lacy

Over 42.5 (-115)
Under 42.5 (-115)

Total rushing attempts made by Spencer Ware

Over 9.5 (-110)
Under 9.5 (-120)