NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/17 - 1/9)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Armed Forces Bowl

Tulsa started season 1-3, but losses were to Oklahoma/Oklahoma St/Boise St- they won next seven games, with six wins by 17+ points, before losing finale 48-16 to Houston. Hurricane was 3-0 in bowls under previous coach Graham, winning 63-7/45-13/62-35, but two of those three were vs MAC schools; LY’s bowl was great win at Hawai’i. BYU is an independent now; ; they were 5-0 vs WAC schools, beat UCF of C-USA 24-17 but lost 54-10 to rival Utah, 38-29 at TCU, split 1-point decisions with Ole Miss/Texas. Cougars won bowls last two years, 44-20/52-24. Underdogs won this game last two years, but favorites are 5-3 vs spread in this bowl, 3-0 when TCU/service academy isn’t involved; average total in last four bowls is 59.3. Tulsa (+1.5) lost this game 26-13 five years ago. MWC teams are 2-3 in this bowl.

Pinstripe Bowl

6-6 Iowa State won two games as double digit underdogs to get here; they lost four games in row in October by average score of 34-18, but handing Oklahoma State its only loss made them bowl eligible- they are 7-3 vs spread as underdogs, with 24-20 win at UConn (not far from here) in September. Rutgers lost 40-22 at UConn, but won seven of last ten games- they’re 2-2 as favorite this year. Scarlet Knights didn’t go bowling LY, but they’ve won last four bowls by average score of 41-22 (3-1 vs spread); this is home game for them, with game being played in Bronx for second time. Iowa State is playing in just its second bowl since ’05; they’re 2-3 in last five bowls, all as underdogs- four of the five games were decided by 4 or less points (3-1-1 vs spread). ISU coach Rhoads is familiar with Rutgers from his days as Pitt’s DC (2000-7).

Music City Bowl

Mississippi State won its last four bowls, despite being underdog in three of them; their last bowl loss was in ’98 Cotton Bowl- this is just their third bowl since 2000, so their fans are excited (sold out their allotment of tickets). More was expected of Bulldogs than 6-6, scoring 12 or less points in four of six losses. State is 4-3 as a favorite this year. Wake Forest is in first bowl since ’08; they’ve won four of last five bowls, despite being dog in three of five. Deacons lost four of last five games, losing finale 41-7 to Vanderbilt; now they’re bowling in Vandy’s hometown. Wake is 5-4 as a dog this season. SEC teams are 4-4 in this bowl, 3-3 vs ACC teams, with underdogs 5-2 vs spread in last seven. Since 2003, dogs of 6+ points are 3-1 in this bowl. Since 2006, SEC clubs are 30-16 in bowls, 18-11 against the spread as bowl favorites.

Insight Bowl

Iowa is 1-4 on road this year, losing at Minnesota/Iowa State; they covered once in four games as a dog. Oklahoma split its last six games after a 6-0 start, allowing 41-45-44 points in its three losses- they’re 6-5 as favorite this year, 5-5 when laying double digits. Hawkeye alum Stoops is 6-6 in bowls, 4-8 vs spread, 1-2 when laying double digits, but he won his last two bowls, 31-27/48-20; Ferentz is 6-3 in bowls, winning his last three- he’s covered six of seven as a bowl dog. Big 12 teams are 4-1 in this bowl last five years, with Iowa (+2.5) beat Missouri LY; since ’03, underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in this game. Over last 5+ years, double digit bowl favorites are 11-18 v spread, 1-1 this year. Teams from Oklahoma’s league (Big X) won nine of last 12 bowls vs Big Dozen schools, but are just 4-8 vs spread in those games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, December 30

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What bettors need to know: Friday's bowl game action
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Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. BYU Cougars (+1, 56.5)

ARMED FORCES BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Brigham Young started 1-2 before winning nine of its last 10 and Tulsa rebounded from a 1-3 start to win seven in a row before losing to Houston in its last game. All four of Tulsa’s losses are to teams that were in the top 10 at the time.

2. Fifth-year senior quarterback G.J. Kinne and running back Ja’Terian Douglas, who leads the nation with 8.2 yards a carry, key a Tulsa offense which ranks 23rd in the country in scoring (34.1) and yards (454.4). BYU is ranked 17th in the nation in total defense.

3. Tulsa has won three straight bowl games, averaging 56.7 points. BYU has won four of its last five bowl outings and will try to win its 10th game for the fifth time in six seasons.

4. BYU won the first six meetings between the two former Western Athletic Conference teams, but Tulsa won the last one 55-47 in 2007.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: BYU opened as a 2-point favorite and was bet up to -3, before bettors came back on Tulsa and flipped the spread to +1

WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for Dallas, with game-time temperatures in the high 50s. Winds will blow at 6 mph from the NW.

ABOUT TULSA (8-4, 7-1, Conference USA, 7-5 ATS): The Golden Hurricane have plenty of weapons. Douglas and Trey Watts have both rushed for more than 800 yards. Kinne, with 900 career passing yards, has 25 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions – two against Houston. Willie Carter is Kinne’s top target with 61 catches for 868 yards. Kicker Kevin Fitzpatrick is 15-for-17 this season and is the school’s all-time leading scorer with 296 points. Linebacker Curnelius Arnick averaged 11.8 tackles, tied for sixth in the nation. All-Conference USA defensive end Tyrunn Walker is listed as questionable with a leg injury. The Golden Hurricane has an 8-9 all-time bowl record.

ABOUT BYU (9-3, 8-4 ATS): The Cougars have put up good numbers defensively in their first season as an independent, averaging 15 points against in wins and losing only 17-16 to Texas. But BYU, which has an 11-7-1 all-time record in bowls, has only one victory over a team with a winning record (Utah State). Quarterback Riley Nelson is 5-1 as a starter after replacing Jake Heaps. Nelson has 16 touchdown passes, only five interceptions and 376 yards rushing. Wide receiver Cody Hoffman has caught 53 passes for 821 yards and Ross Apo has nine touchdown receptions. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy leads the team with 10 tackles for loss and five sacks.

TRENDS:

* Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Golden Hurricane's last five Bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Cougars' last five non-conference games.

PREDICTION: Tulsa 41, BYU 31 – Kinne shakes off a rough game as the Golden Hurricane win a shootout.




Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa State Cyclones (+1.5, 44.5)

PINSTRIPE BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Rutgers fell short in its bid for the Big East’s automatic BCS berth. Iowa State played a big role in the BCS in its own way, scoring one of the biggest upsets of the season when it knocked off then-No. 2 Oklahoma State in double overtime Nov. 18.

2. The Scarlet Knights came into the final weekend of the regular season with a share of the Big East title and a chance at a BCS bowl. But they committed six turnovers and fell behind by 30 points in the third quarter en route to a 40-22 setback against Connecticut.

3. Rutgers has been going back and forth between sophomore Chas Dodd and freshman Gary Nova at quarterback, with each struggling to claim the job outright. The two have the best security blanket in the Big East in receiver Mohamed Sanu, who set the conference record with 109 receptions and totaled seven touchdowns.

4. The Cyclones, who average 181.2 yards on the ground, will put their high-scoring attack up against the Scarlet Knights and their 12th-ranked scoring defense. Rutgers’ strength is in the secondary, where it is holding teams to 168.3 passing yards. Iowa State should have room to run.

TV: 3:20 p.m., ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: Rutgers opened as a 2-point favorite and has dropped to -1.5

WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast for Yankee Stadium, with a 33 percent chance of showers. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 40s while winds will blow South at 6 mph.

ABOUT IOWA STATE (6-6, 3-6 Big 12, 7-5 ATS): The Cyclones went up against seven ranked teams during the regular season and knocked off two, claiming upsets at Texas Tech and in the shocker versus Oklahoma State. Iowa State also holds a win at Rutgers’ nemesis Connecticut from September and played strong at Kansas State in a 30-23 loss to end the regular season. Coach Paul Rhodes was given a 10-year contract extension but will be coaching his final game with offensive coordinator Tom Herman, who is taking a job under Urban Meyer at Ohio State.

ABOUT RUTGERS (8-4, 4-3 Big East, 8-4 ATS): The Scarlet Knights’ vaunted defense was put in a tough position against Connecticut thanks to three combined interceptions by Dodd and Nova. Dodd also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown in the second quarter. When the two play mistake-free football, the defense usually leaves Rutgers in a strong position. Dodd and Nova have each been getting practice reps and coach Greg Schiano won’t be afraid to pull either quarterback. The Scarlet Knights have recent experience playing at Yankee Stadium after beating Army 27-12 in the Bronx on Nov. 12.

TRENDS:

* Scarlet Knights are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Cyclones are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights' last five Bowl games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Cyclones' last five Bowl games.

PREDICTION: Iowa State 33, Rutgers 20 - The Cyclones are battle-tested from the Big 12 slate while the Scarlet Knights have yet to prove themselves against top competition.




Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6.5, 48)

MUSIC CITY BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Mississippi State has won its past four bowl appearances, including a 52-14 thrashing of Michigan in last season’s Gator Bowl. But the Bulldogs had to beat arch-rival Mississippi in the regular-season finale just to become bowl eligible after struggling in the rugged SEC West.

2. Whether Chris Relf or Tyler Russell start at quarterback for Mississippi State remains a question. Both are splitting snaps in practice. Relf started the season on top of the depth chart and appeared in 10 games. Russell took over starting duties at midseason and played in nine games.

3. Wake Forest will look to trump a Bulldogs’ defense allowing only 19.9 points per game with the play of quarterback Tanner Price, a sophomore who completed 60.9 percent of his passes and threw for 20 touchdowns. Price’s top target, Chris Givens, caught nine touchdowns and finished with 1,276 receiving yards.

4. The Demon Deacons have not appeared in a bowl game since beating Navy 29-19 in the 2008 EagleBank Bowl.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: Mississippi State opened at -6.5 and has remained steay at that numbers with some books going to -7.

WEATHER: Cloudy skies and game-time temperatures in the high 50s are in the forecast for Nashville. Winds, blowing SW, will reach speeds of up to 11 mph.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-6, 2-6 SEC West, 6-6 ATS): Expectations were high in Starkville following a nine-win season in 2010. But the Bulldogs lost to Auburn and LSU in a five-day span in mid-September and never fully recovered. Whoever plays quarterback will look to running back Vick Ballard to lead the way. Ballard rushed for 1,009 yards and eight touchdowns this season, including 144 yards against Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are in a bowl game for the second consecutive season for the first time since 1999-2000, and have won their past four bowl appearances.

ABOUT WAKE FOREST (6-6, 5-3 ACC, 7-5 ATS): A 35-30 upset victory over then-No. 23 Florida State on Oct. 8 pushed the Demon Deacons to 4-1 on the season. But Wake would drop five of its final seven, including an ugly 41-7 loss at home to Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale. Price will have to spark the offense as Wake Forest ranks 96th in the nation in rushing offense. Leading rusher Brandon Pendergrass posted back-to-back 100-yard rushing games against Clemson (134 yards) and Maryland (125 yards) late in the season.

TRENDS:

* Demon Deacons are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Demon Deacons' last five Bowl games.
* Under is 7-3 in Bulldogs' last 10 games overall.

PREDICTION: Mississippi State 24, Wake Forest 20 - The Bulldogs find a way to keep Price in check just enough to pull out a close victory.




Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-14, 57.5)

INSIGHT BOWL STORYLINES

1. Oklahoma opened the season with national-championship expectations, but the loss of leading receiver Ryan Broyles and leading rusher Dominique Whaley combined with a sloppy defense has Bob Stoops’ Sooners outside of a BCS bowl for only the second time in the last six years. Iowa also enters off a down year by Kirk Ferentz’s standards, but has won three straight bowl games, including the last two as underdogs.

2. Oklahoma quarterback Landry Jones, billed as a Heisman candidate for the first half of the season, didn’t throw a touchdown pass in his last three games and had five interceptions. Iowa junior quarterback James Vandenberg was up-and-down, but finished with 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He'll be missing his backfield mate, leading rusher Marcus Coker, who has been suspended for the game. Coker set Iowa bowl records for rushing attempts (33) and rushing yards (219) in the Hawkeyes' 27-24 win over Missouri in last year's Insight Bowl.

3. Stoops played safety at Iowa, when Ferentz was the Hawkeyes’ offensive line coach in the early 1980s.

4. Ferentz has been mentioned as a candidate for the Kansas City Chiefs vacancy.

TV: ESPN.

LINE: Oklahoma opened at -15.5 and has been bet down to as low as -13.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s is in the forecast for Sun Devil Stadium. Winds, blowing WSW, will blow at 2 mph.

ABOUT IOWA (7-5, 4-4 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): A difficult offseason was followed by an up-and-down regular season for the Hawkeyes. They had an impressive win over BCS-bound Michigan, but also suffered an embarrassing loss to a three-win Minnesota team. Vandenberg has a big-play target in Marvin McNutt to throw at the suspect Oklahoma secondary. The Hawkeyes’ defense struggled to pressure the quarterback, which left their secondary vulnerable. Iowa ranked last in the Big Ten in pass defense.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (9-3, 6-3 Big 12, 6-6 ATS): The Sooners are making their 12th straight bowl appearance, a streak spanning Stoops’ entire tenure in Norman. But bowl season hasn’t always been kind to Oklahoma, which has lost three of its last five postseason appearances. Oklahoma was No. 1 in the nation until suffering a stunning upset at home to Texas Tech in late October. The Sooners managed to climb back into the national-title picture, before falling at Baylor. If Jones can’t get the offense clicking, look for backup Blake Bell to get more snaps. Bell was used as a short-yardage specialist as Jones faded late.

TRENDS:

* Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Hawkeyes' last six non-conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Sooners' last five Bowl games.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 34, Iowa 28. After a blowout loss at Oklahoma State to end the regular season, the Sooners’ motivation will be tested by the less-talented Hawkeyes.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Car Care Bowl

6-6 Texas A&M was favored in every game but one this year (3-8 as favorite); they led by double digits in five of its six losses, so they fired their coach; Aggies are 1-5 this year in games decided by 7 or less points; they scored 29+ points in four of six losses- five of their six wins are by 16+ points. 6-6 Northwestern won four of last five games to get here; they lost five games in row at one point this season. Wildcats are 3-4 as underdog this year, 0-8 in bowl games since 1948, 0-3 under Fitzgerald, with two OT losses (3-0 vs spread, two of three vs Big X teams). Texas A&M lost its last five bowls, with four of the five by 17+ points, but four of those were vs SEC teams. Since 2006, double digit bowl favorites are 11-18 vs spread, 1-1 this year. Teams from Oklahoma’s league (Big X) won nine of last 12 bowls vs Big Dozen schools, but are just 4-8 vs spread in those games.

Sun Bowl

Georgia Tech scored 46.3 ppg in its 6-0 start, then scored 23.3 ppg in 2-4 finish; they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite this year. Jackets are 0-6-1 vs spread in last seven games overall. Utah won four of its last five games and also four of last five bowls (2-1 when dog), losing 26-3 to Boise State LY; their OC Chow is now head coach at Hawai’i. Georgia Tech lost its last five bowls despite being favored in three of last four- they scored total of 24 points in last three bowls- one-dimensional option is lot easier to prepare for when you have a month to do it. Pac-12 teams (Utah is one now) won five of last six visits here; underdogs covered six of last seven Sun Bowls. Seven of last eight Sun Bowls had total of 50+ (8th game ended 3-0). ACC bowl favorites are 9-15 since 2006, but 2-0 this year; Pac-12 bowl underdogs are 6-8 against the spread, 1-2 this year.

Fight HungerBowl

6-7 UCLA vs 6-6 Illinois . Both teams fired their coach. Terrific. Illini was 6-0 at one point, scoring 34.7 ppg, then lost last six games, scoring 11 ppg- they’re 2-7 as a favorite this year. Dogs covered nine of their 11 lined games. Bruins lost three of last four games, losing by 31-6/50-0/49-31- why are they even in a bowl? UCLA is 4-6 as an underdog this year; they’re 2-3 in last five bowls, losing this game 44-27 (-3) to Florida State in ’06. Illinois is in 3rd bowl in last decade, favored in bowl for first time since ’94- they won three of its last five bowls. Pac-12 teams are 2-2 in this bowl, where dogs covered five of last seven years. Big Dozen teams lost three of last four bowls against Pac-12 opponents. UCLA allowed 30+ points in all seven losses, less than 30 in all six wins. Illinois scored 66 points total in its last six games. Why isn’t 7-5 Western Kentucky in this game?

Liberty Bowl

Cincinnati QB Collaros broke his ankle during season; unclear if he'll be playing here. Vanderbilt as a bowl favorite? 2nd time ever; they lost to Air Force as 9-point favorite 29 years ago. Commodores are 2-1-1 all-time in bowls, winning last one 16-14 in ’08 Music City Bowl. Vandy played better once Jordan Rodgers (Aaron’s brother) became QB; they’re 4-1 as favorite this year, with only loss in OT at Tennessee. SEC bowl favorites are 18-11 vs spread since 2006. Cincinnati scored 23-21-3 points in its three losses, 25+ in all its wins; they went 7-5 despite being dog in only two games (1-1) all year. Underdogs covered last four Liberty Bowls and six of last seven; three of last four totals were 37 or less, as weather can be factor in Memphis. SEC teams won this game four of last five years, but Cincinnati’s proximity mean they should have some crowd support, too. Vandy has weak PK, so they go for it on 4th down a lot. Big East bowl underdogs are 3-5 vs spread since 2006.

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Virginia won four of last five games, with highlight a 14-13 win at Florida State (+17); Cavaliers are 3-2 as a dog this year, winning all three covers SU. UVa is in first bowl since ’07- they’re 3-2 in last five bowls, with last three all decided by 3 points (dogs 4-1 vs spread in their last five bowls)- they’re 2-3 vs bowl teams this year. Auburn went 3-4 in last seven games, allowing 38+ points in all four losses; they’re 1-3 as favorite this year, 4-5 SU vs bowl teams. Tigers won their last four bowls, all by exactly 3 points, with two of last three going OT. Auburn beat Clemson in OT in this game four years ago. Over last 5+ years, SEC teams are 6-4 vs ACC teams in bowl games, 5-5 vs spread. ACC bowl underdogs are 14-7 vs spread since ’06; SEC bowl favorites are 18-11. Auburn won national title LY; will they have same enthusiasm for playing in Chick-fil-A Bowl as Virginia does?

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 31

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What bettors need to know: New Year's Eve bowl game action
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Texas A&M Aggies vs. Northwestern Wildcats (+10, 68.5)

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Texas A&M will be making its final appearance as a Big 12 school and will be operating under a new coach in interim boss Tim DeRuyter when it faces Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas on New Year’s Eve. The Aggies, who fired Mike Sherman after the regular season, move to the SEC in 2012.

2. Northwestern is considerably more stable with Pat Fitzgerald at coach and has lower expectations to meet. Still, Fitzgerald and company would love to snap the school’s 62-year drought with a bowl win.

3. The Aggies were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason and had National Championship aspirations but consistently lost close games against top competition, falling twice in overtime and losing by a total of seven points in regulation to Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Texas.

4. Texas A&M will be looking to snap a 10-year bowl win drought. The Aggies are still waiting to see if running back Cyrus Gray, who went over 1,000 yards this season, will be able to go after suffering a shoulder injury on Nov. 19 against Kansas.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Texas A&M opened as a -9.5 favorite and has been bet up to -10.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (6-6, 4-5 Big 12, 3-9 ATS): The Aggies will be led by former Houston coach Kevin Sumlin going forward with DeRuyter moving on to take over Fresno State. Also enjoying his last game for the Aggies will be quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who gets one more chance to impress NFL scouts. The former wide receiver guides an offense that averages 39.6 points but had some of his worst performances against better competition, totaling 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in six losses and 16 scores vs. two picks in six wins. The Aggies will be playing with heavy hearts following the death of senior offensive lineman Joseph Villavisencio, who was killed in a car accident after a team charity event on Thursday.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): The Wildcats have their own star senior quarterback in Dan Persa, who led the nation with a 74.2 completion percentage after missing the first three games while recovering from an Achilles injury. Northwestern last won a bowl game at the 1949 Rose Bowl but will be making their fourth straight postseason appearance under Fitzgerald after closing the season 4-1. That stretch was preceded by a five-game slide during which the Wildcats allowed an average of 35.2 points.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five Bowl games.
* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Over is 6-2 in Aggies' last eight games as favorites.
* Over is 11-4 in Wildcats' last 15 games as underdogs.

PREDICTION: Texas A&M 35, Northwestern 21. The streak will reach 63 years for the Wildcats, who don’t have the pieces to match up against Tannehill and company.




Utah Utes vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-2.5, 49.5)

SUN BOWL STORYLINES

1. Georgia Tech has lost six straight bowl games, while Utah had its nine-game bowl win streak snapped in last year’s 26-3 loss to Boise State in the Maaco Bowl Las Vegas.

2. With their spread option attack, the Yellow Jackets rank third nationally in rushing (316.8). The Utes rank seventh nationally in rush defense (98.3) and are familiar with the option from battling Air Force in the Moutain West.

3. The Utes are the hotter team, having won four of their last five. The Jackets lost four of six after a 6-0 start.

4. Utah offensive coordinator Norm Chow is Hawaii's new head coach, but will coach in the Sun Bowl.

5. Tech starting CB Louis Young (52 tackles, INT) has been suspended for disciplinary reasons. Nickel CB Jemea Thomas will replace him, with Jamal Golden or Michael Peterson filling in for Thomas.

TV: CBS

LINE: Georgia Tech opened at -2.5 and has been bet up to a field-goal favorite.

WEATHER: Clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s is in the forecast for El Paso. Light winds will blow NNW at 4 mph.

ABOUT UTAH (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12, 5-7 ATS): Utah overcame a season-ending shoulder injury to starting QB Jordan Wynn on Oct. 1 as backup Jon Hays threw for 1,266 yards with nine TDs and seven interceptions. RB John White carried the offense, rushing for 1,404 yards and 14 TDs while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. After starting 3-4, the Utes reeled off four straight conference wins and had a chance to win the South Division, but they fell 17-14 to Colorado in the regular-season finale. Utah won the only previous meeting with Georgia Tech, 38-10 in the 2005 Emerald Bowl.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (8-4, 5-3 ACC, 5-6-1 ATS): The Jackets raced to a 6-0 start thanks in part to a soft schedule. Against tougher competition, the offense was not as explosive. Still, the unit features dangerous playmakers in junior A-back Orwin Smith (10.3 yards per carry) and junior WR Stephen Hill (30.2 yards per catch). QB Tevin Washington ran for 890 yards and 14 TDs, but completed just 46.7 percent of his throws. The defense did not improve in the second year under coordinator Al Groh, allowing 25.8 points (60th nationally). OLB Jeremiah Attaochu (6.0 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss) is one of the few Jackets who can disrupt an offense.

TRENDS:

* Utes are 7-2 ATS in their last nine bowl games.
* Yellow Jackets are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 10-4 in Utes last 14 games overall.
* Under is 5-2 in Yellow Jackets last seven games overall.

PREDICTION: Utah 27, Georgia Tech 24. White will have a big day against a Tech defense that ranks 67th nationally against the run, limiting the Jackets’ offensive possessions.




UCLA Bruins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini (-3, 47)

KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL STORYLINES:

1. With the firing of UCLA’s Rick Neuheisel and Illinois’ Ron Zook, this is a matchup of interim coaches. Offensive coordinator Mike Johnson leads the Bruins, while defensive coordinator Vic Koenning guides the Illini. UCLA has hired Jim Mora Jr. as coach, while Illinois has tabbed Tim Beckman, but neither will be on the sideline.

2. Illinois is the first team in FBS history to end a season 0-6 after starting 6-0. The Illini averaged 34.7 points in the first six games and 11 in the final six.

3. UCLA is the first team in a decade to reach a bowl with a losing record. To their credit, however, the Bruins put forth a solid effort in the Pac-12 championship game, falling 49-31 at Oregon.

4. UCLA linebacker Patrick Larimore has been ruled out of Saturday's bowl game against Illinois. Larimore, the team's leading tackler with 80 this season, underwent surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb two weeks ago. Backup middle linebacker Isaiah Bowen also will miss the game after being declared academically ineligible. Jordan Zumwalt will start in place of Larimore.

5. The Bruins mustered only 13 sacks, one per game, and allowed an average of 43.5 points in road games.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: Illinois opened at -2.5 and has been bet to a field-goal favorite.

WEATHER: Cloudy skies are in the forecast for San Francisco. Game-time temperatures will be in the high 50s with winds blowing north at 6 mph.

ABOUT UCLA (6-7, 5-5 Pac-12, 5-8 ATS): Quarterback Kevin Prince had an up-and-down season but no one can quibble with the performance of wide receiver Nelson Rosario, who caught 61 balls for 1,106 yards, sixth-most in the Pac-12. UCLA features a dynamic running back duo of Johnathan Franklin (947 yards, five touchdowns) and Derrick Coleman (726, 11). But starting guard Alberto Sid won't make the trip after being ruled academically ineligible. Defense was a problem all season as the Bruins allowed 32.2 points per game (96th nationally).

ABOUT ILLINOIS (6-6, 2-6 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): You can’t blame the defense for Illinois’ embarrassing finish. The unit ranked seventh nationally in total defense (291.8), fourth against the pass (159.1) and tied for 11th with 36 sacks. All-American defensive end Whitney Mercilus led the country with 14.5 sacks and led the Big Ten with 19.5 tackles for loss. As the offensive line deteriorated, so did the play of quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase. He averaged 122 passing yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions over the last half of the season. Illinois also took a hit when leading rusher Jason Ford (600 yards, seven touchdowns) was ruled academically ineligible.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
* Fighting Illini are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Fighting Illini's last six games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Bruins' last eight games overall.

PREDICTION: UCLA 24, Illinois 20 – The Bruins showed heart in the Pac-12 championship game and feel better about themselves than the sad-sack Illini.




Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores (-1.5, 47.5)

LIBERTY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Cincinnati senior QB Zach Collaros, who passed for 1,860 yards and 14 touchdowns with eight interceptions in nine games, appears likely to play despite breaking his right ankle against West Virginia on Nov. 12. Collaros has returned to practice and is doing all the drills, yet says he still feels pain in the injured ankle.

2. Vanderbilt first-year coach James Franklin restored hope in Nashville, tripling the win total to six and giving Georgia and Arkansas legitimate scares. This is only the fifth bowl game in Commodores history.

3. These teams have two common opponents. Both beat UConn at home and lost at Tennessee. Vanderbilt leads the all-time series against Cincinnati 4-3, but they haven’t played since 1994.

TV: ABC

LINE: Vanderbilt opened as high as a 3-point favorite but has been bet down as low as -1.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for Memphis. Winds will blow south at 10 mph.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (9-3, 5-2 Big East, 7-5 ATS): Coach Butch Jones has agreed on a contract extension through 2017, eliminating any potential distraction. He’s only 13-11 in two seasons, but the team won a share of the Big East title this season. If Collaros is limited, look for the Bearcats to rely on RB Isaiah Pead, who ran for 1,110 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Senior DT Derek Wolfe (9.5 sacks, 19.5 tackles for loss) leads a defense that led the nation with 3.6 sacks and 8.9 tackles for loss per game. The Bearcats are allowing 20.0 points per game, eight fewer than last year. They rank seventh nationally in rush defense, allowing 92.6 yards per game.

ABOUT VANDERBILT (6-6, 2-8 SEC, 9-3 ATS): Junior Zac Stacy averaged 6.2 yards per carry while running for 1,136 yards and 13 TDs. QB Jordan Rodgers, younger brother of Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers, took over as the starter in Week 5. He threw for nearly 1,500 yards with nine TDs and nine interceptions. WR Jordan Matthews ranks fourth in the SEC in receiving yards (722) and first in yards per catch (19.5). The defense kept Vandy in games against SEC powers. The Commodores allow 20.8 points and 324.6 yards per game, which ranks 19th nationally.

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four Bowl games.
* Commodores are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 6-2 in Bearcats' last eight Bowl games.
* Over is 6-1 in Commodores' last seven games overall.

PREDICTION: Cincinnati 27, Vanderbilt 20: Collaros’ speedy return bodes well for the Bearcats’ offense, and the fifth-year senior goes out a winner.




Virginia Cavaliers vs. Auburn Tigers (-3, 49.5)

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Auburn's fall from national champion to the middle of the pack in the SEC and the Chick-fil-A Bowl begins with the loss of star quarterback Cam Newton and the revolving door that was left under center. Barrett Trotter began the season as the starter, but was replaced by Clint Moseley down the stretch. Now Moseley is splitting snaps with freshman Kiehl Frazier, who could see some playing time in the bowl game.

2. Regardless of who's under center for the Tigers, he will have to face a stiff Virginia defense (29th nationally with 343.2 yards allowed per game) without sophomore running back Michael Dyer. The first Auburn player to top 1,000 rushing yards in each of his first two seasons, Dyer was suspended for violating team rules and will be replaced by Onterio McCalebb.

3. The Cavaliers have been balanced on offense, averaging 231.5 passing yards and 165.2 rushing yards, but they might need to rely more on running backs Perry Jones (883 yards) and Kevin Parks (nine touchdowns) against Auburn, which gives up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground.

4. The teams have met only twice, with each winning on the opponent's home field in 1997 and 1998. The Tigers won 28-17 at Virginia in the first meeting, and the Cavaliers returned the favor with a 19-0 win at Auburn the following season.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com, ESPN 3D.

LINE: Auburn opened at -1 and has been bet up to a field-goal favorite.

ABOUT VIRGINIA (8-4, 6-6 ATS): The Cavaliers have enjoyed a rapid resurgence under second-year coach Mike London, who was named the ACC Coach of the Year after leading the Cavaliers within one win of the ACC title game. They are in their first bowl game since the 2007 season and seeking their first bowl win since the 2005 season. The excitement of playing for the division title faded quickly in a 38-0 loss to rival Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale as sophomore quarterback Michael Rocco threw two interceptions and was sacked four times.

ABOUT AUBURN (7-5, 4-8 ATS): The Tigers' offense naturally dropped off considerably after losing Newton to the NFL, and Dyer and the running game became the focal point. Without Dyer, Auburn might struggle to move the ball. And that's not the only change affecting the Tigers. They have lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators since the end of the regular season, with defensive coordinator Ted Roof accepting the same position at Central Florida and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn taking the coaching job at Arkansas State. Malzahn will coach Auburn's offense in the bowl game, but head coach Gene Chizik will lead the defense.

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Tigers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine vs. ACC.
* Over is 7-1 in Cavaliers last eight Bowl games.
* Under is 8-1 in Tigers last nine bowl games.

PREDICTION: Virginia 27, Auburn 20 - The Cavaliers' defense should be able to slow down an offense that will lack firepower without Dyer.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Ticket City Bowl

Penn State’s starting QB is out because a WR gave him a concussion in a locker room fight; been tough couple months for Nittany Lions, who have interim coach who is likely to be job hunting Tuesday. State is 9-3 but lost two of last three games, getting whacked 45-7 in finale at Wisconsin- they’re 1-2-1 as an underdog this year. 12-1 Houston got crushed 49-28 in C-USA title game, after being hopeful of landing in BCS bowl; they’re 10-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, but they did allow 34+ points in five games. Cougars lost four of last five bowl games, allowing 42+ points in three of four losses- their only was against Air Force. Penn State is 3-2 in last five bowls, despite being underdog in four of five games- they allowed 17 or less points in the three wins, 38-37 in losses.

Outback Bowl

Michigan State-Georgia both lost conference title games; State scored 31+ points in its last five games behind senior QB Cousins; they’re 3-2 as underdogs this year. Georgia started season losing to Boise/South Carolina then won 10 straight, holding eight of those 10 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re 8-2 as favorites this year. Spartans lost their last five bowl games, with four losses by 10+ points; they lost 24-12 (+8.5) to Georgia in Capital One Bowl three years ago; Spartans allowed 41-49 points in last two bowls. Dawgs had their bowl winning streak snapped LY; they had won last four bowl games, scoring 35 ppg. Last seven years, SEC teams are 5-2 vs Big Dozen teams in this game. Big Dozen teams are 17-15 as bowl underdogs since ’06, but are 0-2 this year. SEC bowl favorites are 19-13 vs spread last six years, 1-2 this year.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska scored 34+ points in six of first seven games, then tailed off to 20.6 ppg in last five games; Cornhuskers are 3-4 as underdogs under Pelini, 0-2 this year- they allowed 48-28-45 points in their three losses. South Carolina was 6-1 once they cut troubled QB Garcia, replacing him with sophomore Shaw; Gamecocks held five of last six I-A opponents to 13 or less points, covering four of last five as a favorite. SEC teams been favored over Big Dozen teams in last eight Capital One Bowls, but lost five of last seven SU; Nebraska is 3-2 in its last five bowls but won its last four Florida bowls; they lost 17-14 to Auburn last time they played an SEC team in a bowl. South Carolina lost four of last five bowls, scoring 10-7-17 points in losing last three, all by 9+ points; last time Spurrier faced Huskers in a bowl, his Florida team lost 62-24 in ‘97.

Gator Bowl

Shadow of Urban Meyer hovers over Florida-Ohio State game; Meyer recruited most of these Gators, will coach OSU next year. Florida lost six of last seven games vs I-A foes after 4-0 start; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this year, with Gators 4-2 as a favorite. Buckeyes lost last three games, allowing 38.7 ppg, but they covered last four tries as an underdog. OSU perked up after late October bye week, scoring 27.6 ppg in last five games. Florida scored 24-51-37 points in winning its last three bowls, but those Gators aren’t these Gators; Florida (+7) beat Ohio State 41-14 in national title game five years ago. Buckeyes won last two bowls 26-17/31-26, beating Arkansas of SEC LY, but that was with Tressel on sidelines. Underdogs covered four of last five Gator Bowls. Average total in OSU’s last five bowls is 52.4. Why are these teams playing in this good a bowl?

Rose Bowl

Since 1993, Pac-12 teams other than USC are 1-9 in the Rose Bowl. Oregon won 1917 Rose Bowl over Penn, but hasn’t won it since; they scored 36.1/47.0 ppg in Kelly’s first two seasons, but lost 26-17/22-19 in bowl games; they haven’t won game under Kelly when opponent had more than week to prepare. 11-2 Wisconsin scored 31-29 points in its two losses, giving up last-minute TD passes in both games; this is first time all season they’re an underdog. Badgers are bowl underdog for sixth year in row, losing three of last four; they’ve scored 20 or less points in last five bowls, losing this game LY 21-19 to TCU. Underdogs covered five of last seven Rose Bowls. Only teams to beat Oregon this year were LSU/USC, arguably two of best five teams in country.

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma State scores a ridiculous amount of points, averaging 49.3 ppg; their only loss came in OT at Iowa State on night after a plane crash killed the women’s basketball coach at OSU, which had to be sobering factor. Cowboys are 8-3 as favorites this year, 3-0 if laying single digits- they’re 3-2 in last five bowls (favorites 4-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in four of five games. Stanford was 11-1, losing 53-30 at home to Oregon; they’re underdog for first time this year. Cardinal is in third straight bowl, splitting last two; they’ve lost three of last four bowls overall. In 24 games these teams played this year, only once did either side score less than 30 points (Stanford 28-14 over Notre Dame). Underdogs covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls, with average total in those games 59.2 ppg. Last college game for Cardinal QB Luck and OSU’s 27-year old QB Weeden.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College football betting: Monday's bowl previews and picks
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TICKETCITY BOWL

Penn State vs. Houston (-7, 56.5)

STORYLINES:

1. Houston comes in looking to shake off blowing a chance to play in a BCS bowl. No. 17 Houston won its first 12 games, only to stumble badly in a 49-28 loss to Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA championship game.

2. Likewise, No. 23 Penn State comes in looking for focus. The Nittany Lions season was derailed by the controversy surrounding former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky that ultimately led to the firing of legendary coach Joe Paterno. Penn State lost two of its final three games and were beaten soundly by Wisconsin, 45-7 in their regular-season finale.

3. On the field, the enticing match-up occurs when Houston has possession. Cougars quarterback Case Keenum passed for 5,099 yards and 45 touchdowns this season, fueling the top-rated passing attack in the country for an offense that averaged 50.8 points per game. He’ll take his shot against a Penn State defense ranked fifth in the nation against the pass and allowed just 15.7 points per contest.

4. As if Penn State hadn’t suffered enough off-the-field distractions, quarterback Matt McGloin may not play after suffering a concussion and seizure during a fight with receiver Curtis Drake in the locker room on Dec. 16. Backup quarterback Rob Bolden has worked with the starting offense in practice.

PREDICTION: Houston 35, Penn State 14. As well as the Nittany Lions defend the pass, Keenum has too much talent to be hemmed in all game, and Penn State will struggle to move the ball against Houston’s defense.




GATOR BOWL

Florida vs. Ohio State (2, 44)

STORYLINES:

1. Two programs that met for the BCS national championship just five years ago stumble into the Gator Bowl looking to salvage a winning season. When Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 for the 2006 BCS title, Urban Meyer patrolled the Gators sideline. Now he’s poised to take over a Buckeyes program still reeling from NCAA rules violations that cost former coach Jim Tressel his job.

2. Neither Ohio State nor Florida is accustomed to being this bad on offense. The Gators never found any consistency this season, finishing 102nd out of 120 FBS schools in total offense. Ohio State was worse, ranking 107th in the nation.

3. Ohio State freshman quarterback Braxton Miller averaged 90.4 yards rushing in his final five games and passed for 11 touchdowns. He’ll be challenged by a Florida defense that finished ninth in the nation in total defense and ranked 20th against the pass.

4. Florida senior quarterback John Brantley threw three interceptions against Florida State in the regular-season finale, before leaving with a concussion. Freshmen quarterbacks Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett, both of whom struggled when called upon this season, could see time if Brantley falters.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 17, Florida 14. Meyer’s future beats Meyer’s past as the Buckeyes have more offense than the inconsistent Gators.




CAPITAL ONE BOWL

Nebraska vs. South Carolina (-2.5, 45.5)

STORYLINES:

1. Both teams have lost the coordinators of their strong defenses to head coaching jobs, as South Carolina's Ellis Johnson is headed to Southern Mississippi and Nebraska's Carl Pelini is taking over at Florida Atlantic.

2. The Gamecocks rank fourth in the nation in total defense (268.9 yards per game) and are especially tough against the pass (133.0 yards per game), so the Huskers will need to lean on their strong running game even more than usual. Leading rusher Rex Burkhead (1,268 yards, 17 TDs) has been nursing a sore ankle but is expected to play.

3. Both teams boast versatile quarterbacks. South Carolina's Connor Shaw passed for 1,218 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions and added 483 rushing yards and seven touchdowns after taking over for Stephen Garcia. Nebraska's Taylor Martinez was the starter all season and passed for 1,973 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go with 837 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.

4. South Carolina has never beaten Nebraska, losing all three meetings, the most recent in 1987. Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier is winless against the Huskers, too, including a 62-24 loss in the 1996 Fiesta Bowl that gave Nebraska the national title over Spurrier's Florida team.

PREDICTION: South Carolina 33, Nebraska 24. Even without Johnson, the Gamecocks defense will be the best unit on the field, and that will be the difference in the fourth quarter.




OUTBACK BOWL

Michigan State vs. Georgia (-3, 50.5)

STORYLINES:

1. This is not the bowl game that either of these schools wanted. Both Georgia (SEC) and Michigan State (Big Ten) missed out on a trip to a BCS Bowl with losses in their respective conference championship games.

2. The Outback Bowl will mark the college finale for the most successful class in Spartans history, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver B.J. Cunningham. The two have hooked up for 12 touchdowns this season and will have plenty of pro scouts watching to see how they perform against SEC-level speed.

3. Georgia coach Mark Richt will be looking to cap a season of redemption with a victory. The embattled coach had plenty of fans calling for his job when the Bulldogs started out with back-to-back losses. Ten straight wins and the SEC East title has quieted those calls.

4. Michigan State has lost five straight bowl games, including a 24-12 setback against Georgia in the 2009 Capital One Bowl. The Spartans were trounced by Alabama, 49-7, in the Capital One Bowl last January. Georgia will be playing in its 10th straight bowl game and looking to bounce back after a 10-6 loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl last season.

PREDICTION: Georgia 28, Michigan State 21. The SEC has dominated the Big Ten in bowl games recently, including a 3-0 mark last season. The Bulldogs will continue the conference reign.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rose Bowl betting preview: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks (-6, 72)

ROSE BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Oregon coach Chip Kelly has taken his team to the Rose Bowl, National Championship Game and Rose Bowl again in the last three years. He is still looking for his first win. The Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl since 1917.

2. Wisconsin is coming off a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game and will test its sixth-ranked scoring defense (17.0 points) against Oregon’s third-ranked scoring offense (46.2 points). The Badgers have been exposed in the secondary at times, and few teams boast more speed than the Ducks.

3. Badgers running back Montee Ball was a Heisman Trophy finalist and needs one touchdown to tie Barry Sanders (39) for the all-time single-season record. Ball, who scored four times in the Big Ten Championship Game, has recorded 2,014 yards from scrimmage this season.

4. Oregon has its own former Heisman finalist at running back in LaMichael James, who is at 1,856 yards from scrimmage despite missing two games. James was recently announced as a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award, honoring the most versatile player in major college football.

TV: 5 p.m. ESPN.

LINE: Oregon -6. A couple shops on the Strip opened with the Ducks giving 5 points but just about every sportsbook is offering Oregon -6 now. The total opened at 71.5 and got bet up to 72.

ABOUT OREGON (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12): The Ducks had the chance to jump into a second National Championship Game but dropped their season-opener to LSU and lost any momentum they had toward the No. 2 slot when they were knocked off by USC, 38-35, on Nov. 19. But Oregon bounced back and won the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, 49-31, over UCLA and totaled 98 points in its final two games. The Ducks play at a breakneck speed, using a no-huddle as their base offense and relying on quickness at each of the skill positions.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (11-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The big difference between last year’s squad that dropped a 21-19 decision to TCU in the Rose Bowl and this edition is quarterback Russell Wilson. The graduate student took little time to get used to his new teammates and was a Heisman Trophy candidate himself for much of the season. Where the Badgers used to be a one-dimensional running team, Wilson has opened up the playbook by passing for 31 touchdowns and ranking second nationally in quarterback rating. Wisconsin has closed with five straight wins, during which Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.

TRENDS:

The Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

The Ducks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites and 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.

The under is 10-2 in Ducks' and Badgers' last 12 combined bowl games.

PREDICTION: Oregon 42, Wisconsin 34. A shootout suit’s the Ducks, who will get Kelly his first bowl win with the school.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fiesta Bowl betting preview: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 73)

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. In a consolation title game of sorts, the two next-best contenders for the BCS title -- and two of the top five scoring offenses in the nation -- will square off. The third-ranked Cowboys have an extra large chip on their shoulder, feeling they deserved a shot at top-ranked LSU rather than the rematch opportunity granted to Alabama.

2. It's most likely the final college game for Stanford QB Andrew Luck, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft if he leaves after his junior year. Luck should be able to exploit an Oklahoma State defense that allows 265.6 passing yards per game, 102nd in the nation.

3. The Cardinal have been tough against the run, ranking fifth in the nation at 90.0 yards allowed per game, but that might not do them much good against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State does most of its damage through the air -- the Cowboys rank second in the nation with 386.2 passing yards per game.

4. The Fiesta Bowl has endured a tumultuous 2011 that featured a scandal involving improper gifts and travel bowl employees granted to politicians, resulting in the firing of longtime president and CEO John Junker.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Oklahoma State -3.5. You might want to bet the favorite now if you like Okie State because this line doesn't appear to be going down. Oddsmakers opened up this spread at Stanford +3.5 but in the last day or two we've seen some 4's and even a 4.5 pop up. The total has been bet down from 75 down to as low as 73 at some locations.

ABOUT STANFORD (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12): The Cardinal didn't show any noticeable dropoff after losing coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, as first-year coach David Shaw led them to a second consecutive BCS bowl. They beat Virginia Tech 40-12 in last year's Orange Bowl. Much of the success can be attributed to Heisman Trophy runner-up Luck, who has passed for 3,185 yards with 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Stanford was never really in contention for the BCS title game after a 53-30 loss to Oregon on Nov. 12, because it doesn't have many impressive wins. The Cardinal beat three ranked teams -- Washington, Southern California and Notre Dame -- but none was higher than No. 20 at the time of the game and only the Trojans are still ranked.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (11-1): The Cowboys have the best argument that they should be in the championship game, but a 37-31 overtime loss to Iowa State was just ugly enough to keep them out, even after they rebounded to crush rival Oklahoma 44-10 in the regular-season finale. So it's with some disappointment that their school-record sixth consecutive bowl game comes in Arizona, rather than New Orleans. Star WR Justin Blackmon (1,336 receiving yards, 15 TDs) and 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden (4,328 yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs) lead the offense that ranked third nationally in total yards (557.0 per game) and second in scoring (49.3 points per game), but RB Joseph Randle is a handful, too. Randle quietly amassed 1,193 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns.

TRENDS:

The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Pac-12 teams and 49-19-2 ATS in their last 70 games when giving points.

The under is 13-3-1 in Stanford's last 17 games as an underdog and 6-1-2 in Okie State's last nine games against teams with winning records.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 41, Stanford 35. Teams left on the bubble of the national championship game can go either way, but the Cowboys seem motivated to prove they were unjustly overlooked.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Sugar Bowl

Virginia Tech is 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 7-14 in wins, 31.7 ppg in losses; Hokies won seven of last eight games, are underdog for first time this season. Michigan was held to 14-16 points in its two losses; they're 5-3 as favorites this year; Wolverines lost four of last five bowl games, allowing 32+ points in all five games (average total, 65.4); Hoke was 2-1 in bowl games at Ball State/ San Diego State, with favorites covering all three games. Since 2006, ACC-Big Dozen teams have met five times in bowls, with ACC teams winning three of five games. Big Dozen teams are 3-5 so far this bowl season, with favorites covering seven of the eight games (2-0 as favorites)- they're 5-2 as bowl faves since '07. ACC bowl underdogs are 15-8 since '06, 1-2 this year. Favorites covered four of last five Sugar Bowls; this is first time in 12 years there isn't an SEC team in this game.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: Michigan vs. Virginia Tech
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan Wolverines vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (3, 51)

SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES

1. This will be the first BCS bowl game for No. 12 Michigan since the 2007 Rose Bowl, when it lost to USC. Virginia Tech is making its fourth BCS bowl appearance in five years.

2. Michigan and Virginia Tech rank seventh and eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing 17.17 and 17.23 points per game respectively.

3. The schools, which are meeting for the first time, both sport losing bowl records. Michigan is 19-21 all-time, losing five of its last six bowl games, while Virginia Tech is 9-15. The Hokies lost to Stanford, 40-12, in the Orange Bowl last season.

4. Virginia Tech kicker Tyler Weiss was sent home for violating a team curfew prior to the Hokies' Sugar Bowl game against Michigan. Weiss failed to be present for a 1 a.m. bed check in New Orleans on Thursday, team spokesman Bryan Johnston said. Weiss was scheduled to play in the contest after kicker Cody Journell was arrested last week for his alleged involvement in a home invasion. Justin Myer, the team's kickoff specialist, is expected to handle field goal attempts. He has missed his only two field goal tries this season.

TV: ESPN.

LINE: The Sugar Bowl's line has been all over the place. Some books opened with Virginia Tech favored by a point, but steady action on the Wolverines now has Michigan set at -3 at most shops with a few -2.5's littering the board as of Monday evening. The total is holding at 51 points.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (10-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The Wolverines owe much of this year's revival to an improved, disruptive defense that ranks among the nation's best in several categories. Senior LB Brandon Herron has two of the unit's three touchdowns, returning a fumble and an interception for scores. Junior QB Denard Robinson (1,163 yards rushing, 16 TD) and sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (1,011 yards, 9 TD) have excelled behind an offensive line that features All-American C David Molk, the Rimington Trophy winner.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (11-2, 7-1 ACC): The Hokies, who have been perfect this season against teams not named Clemson, rank just 12th nationally in total yardage allowed (313.9). Junior RB David Wilson is the headliner on offense, ranking 12th nationally with 1,627 yards rushing (125.2 per game) and scoring 10 total touchdowns. Junior QB Logan Thomas has thrown for 2,799 yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 416 yards and 10 more scores.

TRENDS:
- The over is 10-1 in Michigan's last 11 bowl games.
- Virginia Tech is 3-9 against the spread in its last 12 overall.
- Michigan is 8-20 against the spread in its last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.

PREDICTION: Michigan 20, Virginia Tech 14 -- Look for the dynamic Robinson to give the Wolverines a slight edge and cap Brady Hoke's first year as head coach in fine fashion.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, January 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Michigan Wolverines vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
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Michigan Wolverines vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-3, 51)

Offense

Michigan’s offense revolves around its running game that churns out 235.7 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Denard Robinson is a major running threat with 1163 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s completing 56.1 percent of his passes (down from better than 65 percent last season) with 18 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Running back Fitzgerald Toussaint cracked the 1,000-yard plateau this year with nine touchdowns and is averaging 6.1 yards per carry in his last five games. Four different Wolverines have caught at least 18 passes this season for the team, which averages 34.2 points per game with the 34th-ranked total offense in the nation.

Virginia Tech’s offense is a bit more balanced. The Hokies produce 28.5 points per game with the No. 36 total offense, but sit 29th in rushing offense and 66th in passing offense. Logan Thomas is another dual threat quarterback and scampered for more than 400 yards and touchdowns on the ground this season. He also completes almost 60 percent of his passes and has 19 passing TDs compared to nine interceptions. Running back David Wilson has rushed for at least 100 yards in 10 of 13 games and was named ACC Offensive Player of the Year after finishing sixth in the country with 1,631 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry).

Edge: Hokies


Defense

Statistically speaking, these two clubs aren’t separated by much defensively.

Michigan ranks 16th in total defense yielding 317.6 yards per game and sits seventh in scoring defense allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Michigan owns the No. 16-ranked passing defense in the country but managed just eight interceptions this season. The Wolverines have notched 28 sacks.

Virginia Tech’s defense allows only 313.9 yards and 17.2 points per game. The Hokies yield 107.8 rushing yards per game and 206.2 rushing yards per contest. Virginia does have a slight edge in sacks with 38 on the year and 15 interceptions.

Edge: Even


Special teams

The Hokies normally thrive in this area, but this season has been different.

Neither team is particularly dangerous in punt and kick returns, ranking near the bottom in the nation in that category. Virginia Tech’s Cody Journell hit 14 of his 17 field goal attempts during the season but was suspended following his Dec. 21 arrest for breaking and entering. Tyler Weiss was sent home after he violated curfew as well, leaving Justin Myer to handle the kicking duties. He has handled kickoff duties in all 13 games this season but is 0-for-2 this season on field goal tries.

Michigan’s Brendan Gibbons has connected on 10 of his 14 field goal tries.

Both clubs have one blocked punt this year.

Edge: Michigan


Word on the street

“We have come up short. We even make jokes in the locker room, like, ‘They’re never going to give us a big game again.’ Every time we get there we lose. I feel like this is a game we have to win.” – Virginia Tech running back David Wilson.

“Our struggles the previous three seasons have really made this season all the more sweet. I think those have helped us this season because it’s made us even hungrier than ever before. A lot of our success this season can be attributed to those past struggles.” - Wolverines safety Jordan Kovacs.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Orange Bowl

Clemson finished 2-3 after an 8-0 start; they were held to 17 points or less in all three losses; Tigers are 6-3 as a favorite, but failed to cover its last three when favored. West Virginia won its last three games by total of 7 points; they gave up 47-49-38 in three losses, and gave up average of 31 ppg in last six games. Underdogs covered four of last six in Orange Bowl, winning three of last four SU. Clemson lost four of its last five bowls, even though they were favored in all five games. Dogs covered WVU's last five bowls, with Mountaineers losing last two 33-21/23-7 as favorites. Since 2006, ACC bowl favorites are 9-16 vs spread, 2-1 in this year's bowls; Big East bowl underdogs are 4-5 vs spread. Had a feeling all year that after the late coaching change at West Virginia, that this was not a unified coaching staff, with assistants hired by the former coach. Would think that Clemson is the right side in this game.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, January 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What bettors need to know: West Virginia vs. Clemson
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers (-3, 61.5)

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL STORYLINES

1. It's a matchup of explosive offenses -- both teams average more than 33 points and 440 yards -- and dangerous quarterbacks. Clemson's Tajh Boyd is a dual threat who has passed for 3,578 yards with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and added 194 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. West Virginia's Geno Smith, a native of the Miami area, has broken school records for attempts (483), completions (314) and passing yards (3,978) already this season.

2. The Tigers have been hurt at times by an inability to stop the run. While the Mountaineers don't run much -- they rank 100th in the nation with 117.8 rushing yards per game -- their ability to establish the ground game early could be the key to opening up the passing game and getting their offense going. It will be harder for West Virginia to accomplish that, though, without leading rusher Dustin Garrison (742 yards, six touchdowns), who suffered a serious knee injury during preparation for this game.

3. It's Clemson's first trip to the Orange Bowl since its 22-15 win over Nebraska on Jan. 1, 1982, capped a perfect season and the school's only national championship. The return to Miami prompted Tigers coach Dabo Swinney to say, "This is the site of our program's greatest moment, and we've been wandering in the desert for a long time since."

4. Clemson is West Virginia's fourth consecutive ACC bowl opponent, and its fourth different one. The Mountaineers are 2-0 in BCS bowls, but they lost to N.C. State in last year's Champs Sports Bowl. The Mountaineers lost to Clemson 27-7 in the Gator Bowl on Dec. 30, 1989, in the only previous meeting.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Most books had Clemson listed as a 3.5-point favorite at the open, but that line has moved around a bit since then. As of Tuesday night you would have seen the Tigers at -3 at most shops but there were also a handful of -2.5's on the board. The total was pegged around 61.5 or 62.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (9-3, 5-2 Big East): The Mountaineers had to win their last three games -- by a combined seven points -- to force a three-way tie atop the Big East with Cincinnati and Louisville and slip into their third BCS bowl. Smith has two dangerous receiving weapons in Stedman Bailey, a deep threat who has caught 67 passes for a school-record 1,197 yards and 11 touchdowns, and Tavon Austin, who has 89 catches for 1,063 yards. West Virginia will be without safety Terence Garvin, who has a knee injury that requires surgery. Garvin had 72 tackles and two interceptions this season.

ABOUT CLEMSON (10-3, 7-2 ACC): The Tigers went from off the national radar to start the season to surprise national title contender before losing three of their last four regular-season games. They bounced back with a 38-10 win over Virginia Tech in the ACC title game -- their second dominant performance against the Hokies this season -- to earn their first BCS bowl bid, their first ACC title since 1991 and their first 10-win season since 1990. The Tigers had a 1,000-yard rusher (Andre Ellington) and receiver (Sammy Watkins) for the third time in school history, but they will be without their No. 2 rusher, as freshman Mike Bellamy is still serving an indefinite suspension that began with the ACC title game.

TRENDS:
- West Virginia is 11-4 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
- Clemson is 1-4 against the spread in its last five overall.
- Each of Clemson's last five games have played under the total.

PREDICTION: Clemson 31, West Virginia 28. The Tigers' greatest weakness is its run defense, something the Mountaineers are ill-equipped to exploit.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, January 4

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Tale of the tape: West Virginia vs. Clemson
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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Clemson Tigers (-2.5, 61.5)

Offense

If you can slow down West Virginia’s air attack, you’re in good shape. The Mountaineers rank seventh nationally averaging almost 342 yards per game thanks to Geno Smith, who’s completing 65 percent of his attempts with a 8.2 yard-per-attempt average. Wideouts Stedman Bailey Tavon Austin both cracked 1000 receiving yards this season and six different players have at least 24 catches. The Mountaineers sit 17th nationally in total offense and produce 34.9 points per game, but average fewer than 100 rushing yards per contest.

Clemson averages 33.6 points per game with a much more balanced offense. The Tigers’ main weapon is their passing game that averages almost 285 yards per contest, but they also rank 60th in rushing, putting up 156.8 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Tajh Boyd was the ACC’s first-team all-conference QB after putting up 3578 passing yards and 31 touchdowns while Sammy Watkins was his top receiving threat, hauling in 79 catches for 1159 yards and 11 majors.

Edge: Even


Defense

The Mountaineers rank 28th in total defense, yielding 340.3 yards per game and sit 31st in passing defense giving up 199.6 yards per contest. However, the secondary will be tested without safety Terence Garvin, who is out with a knee injury. Garvin had 72 tackles, two interceptions and 3.5 sacks this season. The Mountaineers had 28 sacks on the year and 12 interceptions.

Clemson sits 61st in total defense and allows 26.2 points per contest. The Tigers allow only 202.9 passing yards per game, but they sit 56th nationally in pass efficiency defense and have allowed 30 points in four of their last six games overall. Defensive end Andre Branch is one player to keep an eye on. He had 10.5 sacks this year and could give West Virginia’s offensive line problems.

Edge: Mountaineers


Special teams

With Austin and Miles returning kicks and punts, we could see some fireworks from both teams. Both average better than 26 yards per kick return. West Virginia’s Tyler Bitancurt has connected on 16 of 22 field goal attempts while Clemson’s Chandler Catanzaro has connected on 20 of 25 attempts. The real difference in this category is punting where Clemson averages 41.7 yards per boot while West Virginia has juggled punters and averages just 38.7 yards per kick.

Edge: Clemson


Word on the street

"You know, the best way to describe it for the person who doesn't have to defend it is it's in some ways like playing in Canada. There are 12 men, two guys in motion. That's not the way we play American football, but it almost looks like that sometimes because it goes very fast. They're spread out. They lead two open edges all the time.” Clemson defensive coordinator Kevin Steele about preparing to face West Virginia’s offense.

"It's a big accomplishment, being from here, being able to play in a great game you grew up knowing about, where you saw players that you idolized playing. It's a really big deal for me." – WVU nose tackle Jorge Wright on playing in the Orange Bowl. Wright is one of three Mountaineers from South Florida.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, December 6

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What bettors need to know: Cotton Bowl
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Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 63)

AT&T COTTON BOWL STORYLINES

1. Arkansas has the highest BCS ranking of any school not invited to the BCS, finishing at No. 6. Kansas State is just two spots behind but got squeezed out of the BCS party as well thanks to lower-ranked automatic qualifiers like Wisconsin, Virginia Tech and West Virginia.

2. The Razorbacks’ only losses came at No. 1 LSU and at No. 2 Alabama and were the only games all season in which they failed to score at least 29 points. Arkansas passes for over 300 yards per game with quarterback Tyler Wilson and is averaging 37.4 points.

3. The Wildcats rank as one of the worst passing teams in the nation, but that is due to quarterback Collin Klein leading the team in rushing as well. The junior rushed for five touchdowns in a four-overtime win over Texas A&M and totaled 38 touchdowns rushing and passing.

4. Kansas State returned to postseason play after a four-year drought and lost in the Pinstripe Bowl to Syracuse last December. The Wildcats last played in the Cotton Bowl in 2001 - beating Tennessee. Arkansas lost the 2008 Cotton Bowl to Missouri and fell in the Sugar Bowl, 31-26, to Ohio State last January.

TV: Fox.

LINE: Arkansas opened as a touchdown favorite and was bet up to -8 before drop to -7.5. The total has fallen from 64 to 62.5 points.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (10-2, 7-2 Big 12, 9-3 ATS): The Wildcats don’t mind getting into shootouts, as they average 33.1 points but give up 27.8. Klein allows Kansas State to pass or run out of most formations, adding a layer to the offense that has consistently caught defenses off guard. The Wildcats’ lone losses came to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, two schools that rose to the top-2 in the country. Kansas State showed it could win a low-scoring game in a 17-13 triumph over Texas on Nov. 19.

ABOUT ARKANSAS (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 7-5 ATS): Wilson led the SEC in passing yards with 3,422, erasing any thought that the Razorbacks would suffer a drop with Ryan Mallett in the pros. Wilson’s top target is Jarius Wright, who led the SEC with 11 touchdown catches. Arkansas was hurt on the ground in its loss to LSU, allowing 286 yards rushing, and gave up a touchdown on special teams. The Razorbacks are 3-7-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Over is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Razorbacks last eight bowl games.

PREDICTION: Arkansas 44, Kansas State 35 -- Klein will run all over the place, but the Razorbacks will get quick scores through the air.


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