NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (12/17 - 1/9)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 20

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What bettors need to know: FIU vs. Marshall
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Florida International vs. Marshall (+4, 48)

BEEF ‘O’BRADY’S BOWL STORYLINES

1. Making consecutive bowl appearances for the first time in school history, Florida International comes in after winning a school-record eight games. The Golden Panthers closed the season with four victories in their final five games.

2. Marshall needed overtime to beat East Carolina in its regular-season finale, 34-27, and become bowl eligible. The Thundering Herd won three of their final four games and return to a bowl after a one-year absence, but gave up 30.2 points per contest.

3. The Golden Panthers will have their hands full with Marshall defensive end Vinny Curry, who recorded 21.5 tackles for loss this season (second in the nation). The 6-foot-4 senior forced six fumbles, tied for second in the nation, and his 11 sacks tied for fifth in the country.

4. Marshall averaged just 22 points per game, ranking 98th in the nation, but scored 57 points in its final two contests in wins over Memphis and East Carolina. The Thundering Herd will be challenged by a FIU defense that ranked 16th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 19.4 points.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com LINE: Florida International –4.

ABOUT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (8-4, 5-3 Sun Belt Conference): The Golden Panthers did their best work early in the season (winning their first three games) and late (winning their final three contests). Senior quarterback Wesley Carroll threw just four interceptions in 303 passing attempts, finishing with 2,224 passing yards and 14 touchdowns. FIU scored 27 points or more in five of its eight victories, and averaged 33.3 points during its current three-game winning streak.

ABOUT MARSHALL (6-6, 5-3 Conference USA): Facing the 15th-toughest schedule in the nation, the Thundering Herd set a school record by winning five conference games, placing second in the C-USA East Division. Marshall lost three of its first four games before upsetting Louisville 17-13 on Oct. 1. Freshman quarterback Rakeem Cato passed for 341 yards in the victory over East Carolina, but threw 10 interceptions this season. Five of Marshall’s six victories were by seven points or less.

TRENDS:

The Golden Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win but 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.

Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.

The under is 6-1-1 in Golden Panthers' last 8 games overall while the over is 4-1 in Thundering Herd last 5 games overall.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The books opened Florida International as 4.5-point chalk and there hasn't been much movement. The line did get bet down to 3.5 at couple shops but it didn't stay there for long. Most sportsbooks have FIU listed as a 4-point favorite.

The total opened at 49.5 and even 50 at a few locations. The number has been bet down to 48 pretty much across the board.

PREDICTION: Florida International 27, Marshall 16 – Curry is a major defensive force, but Carroll’s experience will make the difference for the Golden Panthers.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 20

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Tale of the tape: Florida International vs. Marshall
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Florida International Golden Panthers at Marshall Thundering Herd (4, 48)

Offense:

FIU uses a balanced attack of rushes and passes, sitting in the middle of the pack nationally in both categories. Running back Kedrick Rhodes paces the Golden Panthers’ rushing attack, piling up 1131 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the year while averaging better than five yards per carry. Senior quarterback Wesley Carroll’s numbers are down a bit across the board from last year, but he still has an explosive weapon in T.Y. Hilton, who averages 14.8 yards per catch and had a career-best 64 grabs this season.

Marshall’s total offense ranks 101st nationally and produces just 22 points per game. Tron Martinez and Travon Van split the carries, but both average just around four yards per carry with three touchdowns apiece. Junior wideout Aaron Dobson is the main receiving threat with 42 catches that went for 587 yards and 10 touchdowns. Marshall was held to fewer than 20 points six different times this season.

Edge: FIU


Defense:

FIU has a major advantage here. The Golden Panthers allowed just 19.4 points per game and owned the No. 33 total defense in the nation, yielding just 348.5 yards per game. Winston Frazier is a beast on defense with 107 tackles, more than 30 better than anybody else on the roster. Justin Halley leads the club with four interceptions.

Marshall’s defense centers around defensive end Vinny Curry. He sits second in the country with 21 ½ tackles for a loss and six forced fumbles. He also ranks fifth with 11 sacks. However, the rest of Marshall’s defense is pretty weak. The Thundering Herd give up 30.2 points and 418.1 yards per game and sit 100th nationally allowing 262.8 passing yards per contest.

Edge: FIU


Special teams:

T.Y. Hilton gives FIU a big edge here as well. He’s averaging 32 yards per kick return and 23.2 yards per punt return and a touchdown. Marshall sits just 82nd in the country in kick returns and 64th on punt returns.

Both teams have been pretty solid in the kicking game. FIU’s Jake Griffin has hit 21 of his 25 attempts, while Marshall’s Tyler Warner has hit 10 of his 13 tries.

Edge: FIU


Word on the street:

"You're looking at a football against a white backdrop like that and it's different. Looking around, it's really different ... A lot of different angles that you normally don't get on a football field.” - FIU quarterback Wesley Carroll about playing at Tropicana Field.

"We are excited to bring our program to the great state of Florida, which is home to over 30 of our current players and many future prospects." - Marshall head coach Doc Holliday.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 21

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Poinsettia Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-9.5, 55.5)

POINSETTIA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two surprise conference champions riding seven-game winning streaks square off in the Poinsettia Bowl. No. 15 TCU finished with a perfect record in the Mountain West, including a dramatic victory over preseason favorite Boise State, to claim its third consecutive title. Louisiana Tech — picked to finish fourth in the WAC — dethroned preseason favorite Hawaii to claim its first conference title.

2. From a motivational standpoint, the Bulldogs might have an advantage. They’re making just their sixth bowl appearance and first since 2008, while the Horned Frogs will play in a bowl for the seventh consecutive season on the heels of back-to-back BCS bowl appearances.

3. These teams feature very similar playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. TCU linebacker Tank Carder was named the Mountain West’s Defensive Player of the Year for the second straight season, while Louisiana Tech’s Adrien Cole earned the same honor in the WAC after posting 121 tackles, 12 of which were for loss.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: TCU opened as high as -11, but has been bet down to 9.5. The total opened 55.5 and has climbed to 56 at some shops.

WEATHER: Fog is in the forecast for Qualcomm Stadium, with game-time temperatures in the high 59s.

ABOUT TCU (10-2, 7-0 Mountain West Conference, 6-6 ATS): After losing eight starters from 2010, including quarterback Andy Dalton, the Horned Frogs’ offense was expected to struggle this year. But that hasn’t been the case at all as sophomore quarterback Casey Pachall filled the hole left by Dalton by tossing 24 touchdowns to only six interceptions. TCU finished ninth nationally with 41.7 points per game, but all that success led to one drawback — co-offensive coordinator Justin Fuente left the program to become the head coach at Memphis, which has won only five combined games in the past three seasons.

ABOUT LOUISIANA TECH (8-4, 6-1 Western Athletic Conference, 10-2 ATS): The outlook was bleak for second-year coach Sonny Dykes when his Bulldogs stumbled out of the gates in 2011 with a 1-4 start. But Louisiana Tech steamrolled through the back half of the schedule, winning seven straight games, five of which came by double digits. Dykes was named the WAC Coach of the Year, helping engineer an offense that averaged 30.6 points and 398 yards, both in the top 50 nationally. Junior quarterback Colby Cameron took over for injured freshman Nick Isham five games ago, and since that point the Bulldogs scored 35 points per game on 445 total yards.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five non-conference games.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Horned Frogs last eight Bowl games.

PREDICTION: TCU 30, Louisiana Tech 28. The Horned Frogs will have enough firepower to come away with a victory, but this one will be a fight to the end.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 21

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Tale of the tape: Louisiana Tech vs. Texas Christian
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Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-9.5, 55.5)

Offense:

TCU owns one of the most balanced offenses in the country, piling up more than 440 total yards per game comprised of 233 passing yards and 210 rushing yards. Quarterback Casey Pachall ranks seventh in the country in passing efficiency with 24 TDs and only six interceptions, while running back Waymon James averaged 7.7 yards per carry and piled up 824 rushing yards. Matthew Tucker tops the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. Wideout Josh Boyce has huge big-play ability, averaging 16.6 yards per catch to go along with nine touchdowns.

Louisiana Tech quarterback Colby Cameron has the Bulldogs on an offensive roll since taking over as starter five games ago. He has completed 56.4 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions over that stretch. Cameron has hit nine different receivers in those five games, but Quinton Patton is his top target with 73 catches and 10 touchdowns with 1135 receiving yards. Lennon Creer paces the Bulldogs on the ground with 838 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, but he averages only 4.2 yards per carry.

Edge: TCU


Defense:

TCU ranks 30th in the nation allowing 21.2 points per game and 32nd in total defense giving up 346.3 yards per contest. The weakest part of the Horned Frogs’ defense is pass coverage, where they allow about 220 yards per game. Linebacker Tank Carder was named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year for the second consecutive season after notching 66 tackles (4 ½ for a loss) and taking his two interceptions to the end zone.

The Bulldogs give up 22.5 points per game and are pegged 55th nationally in total defense giving up about 375 yards per game. Louisiana Tech’s run defense is solid allowing 122.1 yards per game on the ground and the Bulldogs sit third in the nation with 20 interceptions. However, their pass defense is having a lot more problems than TCU’s, giving up 253 yards per contest and their red zone defense ranks last in the WAC.

The Horned Frogs have the edge here, but the Bulldogs’ takeaways make it close.

Edge: TCU


Special teams:

Both clubs have some serious playmakers on special teams. Louisiana Tech punter Ryan Allen won the Ray Guy Award as the nation’s best punter, averaging 46.3 yards per attempt with 29 punts of 50-plus yards. Meanwhile, Greg McCoy averages 31.6 yards per kickoff return and took a pair of kicks back to the house for TCU to earn the Mountain West Conference’s Special Teams Player of the Year award.

Edge: Even


Word on the street:

"Do you want to have an eight-game winning streak or a one-game losing streak? Do you want to be preseason ranked or do you not want to be ranked at all? Because that's what's in jeopardy for the team that returns next year." - TCU coach Gary Patterson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

"This team's in a great situation. The way coach Dykes set up the team, we have a lot of competition out there. Coming into every year, if you compete as hard as you can and continue to push others, you have a good chance of getting better players to come in and help out because they want to play in that atmosphere." – Louisiana Tech receiver Taulib Ikharo.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 22

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Las Vegas Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Boise State Broncos (-14, 66)

MAACO BOWL LAS VEGAS STORYLINES

1. No. 6 Boise State is back in this contest for the second straight year after once again missing out on a BCS bid. Arizona State is lucky to be anywhere after collapsing with four straight losses to end the regular season, which led to the firing of Dennis Erickson, who will coach in the bowl game.

2. Both teams have prolific quarterbacks. Boise State’s Kellen Moore (49-3) is the winningest quarterback in NCAA history and is second on the career touchdowns list with 140. Arizona State’s Brock Osweiler is a gunslinger who passed for 3,641 yards and 24 touchdowns.

3. Boise State’s pass defense ranks 25th nationally at 195.5 yards per game; Arizona State could try the long-ball route that worked well for TCU in its victory over the Broncos when the Horned Frogs had touchdown plays of 75, 74 and 69 yards. The Sun Devils rank 11th in passing offense (310.2), and Osweiler has a big-time target in Gerrell Robinson (64 receptions for 1,156 yards).

4. Boise State is 7-4 in bowl games, including last year’s 26-3 victory over Utah in Las Vegas. Arizona State is 12-11-1 and in its first bowl game since losing to Texas in the 2007 Holiday Bowl.

TV: ESPN

LINE: Boise State opened as low as -12.5 and has grown to as big as a 15-point favorite. The total has dropped from 66.5 to 65.5 at some books.

WEATHER: The sun should be out in Las Vegas, with temperatures in the low 40s. Winds will blow slightly, at 9 mph at Sam Boyd Stadium.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (11-1, 6-1 Mountain West, 4-8 ATS): The Broncos are back in Las Vegas due to the same formula that hurt them in 2010 – a weak schedule and a missed field goal. Boise State went 1-1 against the two tough teams on its schedule (Georgia and TCU) and lost to the Horned Frogs 36-35 when Dan Goodale missed a game-winning 39-yard field goal attempt. A year earlier, it was Kyle Brotzman missing two chip-shot kicks in a loss to Nevada. Moore passed for 3,507 yards and a school-record 41 touchdowns, and receiver Tyler Shoemaker caught a school-best 15 touchdowns. Doug Martin has rushed for 1,370 yards, fourth most in school history.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12, 3-8-1 ATS): The Sun Devils were cruising toward a berth in the Pac-12 title game when they were 6-2 in late October before the four-game November skid in which they allowed 144 points. The highlight of the season was a 43-22 shellacking of USC. Erickson is 31-30 in five seasons at Arizona State entering his finale. Running back Cameron Marshall (1,038) has 18 rushing touchdowns to tie the school record shared by Woody Green (1972) and Terry Battle (1996). Linebacker Vontaze Burfict (team-high five sacks) has been practicing on the second team after he finished the regular season poorly and reportedly refused to re-enter the season finale against California after being pulled.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven Bowl games.
* Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Sun Devils last seven Bowl games.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Broncos last 10 non-conference games.

PREDICTION: Boise State 45, Arizona State 23 – No telling whether the Sun Devils will be inspired for Erickson’s final game or go through the motions, but Boise State will be looking for a rout in Moore’s final game.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 24

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Hawaii Bowl: What bettors need to know
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Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-8.5, 63)

HAWAII BOWL STORYLINES

1. Defense may be an afterthought in this game, which features two high-powered offenses. Nevada averages 522.8 yards of offense (fifth in the NCAA) and Southern Miss averages 471 (13th in the NCAA). Southern Miss has won 10 of its last 11 games, during which it has been held below 30 points only one time. Nevada has scored 37 or more in six of its last eight games, including 56 in the season-finale against Idaho.

2. Southern Miss will be playing its final game under coach Larry Fedora, who accepted the head coaching position at North Carolina. Among those who have interviewed for the vacancy are South Carolina defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson, Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart and Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

3. This will be the third meeting between Nevada and Southern Miss. They played a home-and-home series, with Southern Miss winning 35-19 in 1997 in Hattiesburg and 55-28 in Reno in 1998. Southern Miss will be playing a bowl game for the 10th consecutive year and the 14th in 15 years. Nevada has been to seven straight bowl games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Golden Eagles opened as 6-point favorites and have been bet past the key number to -8.5. The total has climbed to 63 points after opening around 61.5.

WEATHER: So much for a nice sunny vacation in Hawaii. Rain is in the forecast for Aiea with a 58 percent chance of showers and 20-mph winds, blowing ENE across Aloha Stadium.

ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (11-2, 6-2 Conference USA, 8-4-1 ATS): The No. 21-ranked Golden Eagles set a school record when they beat Houston in the Conference USA championship game for their 11th win. The victory got a lot of attention, as it knocked the Cougars out of BCS consideration and allowed the Golden Eagles to win the Conference USA title. Senior QB Austin Davis, a starter since his freshman season, holds the school record for TD passes (81) and total offense (12,082 yards); he broke Brett Favre’s record for passing yardage and now has 10,727. Southern has a running back by committee approach, with four different players posting 100-yard games.

ABOUT NEVADA (7-5, 5-2 Western Athletic Conference, 5-7 ATS): Mark Lampford is the top rusher (104 yards per game), but it wasn’t easy. A torn ACL in 2010, a case of mono and a chest injury late in summer camp pushed him so far down the depth chart he didn’t even make the travel roster for the opener with Oregon. No decision on whether Tyler Lantrip or Cody Fajardo will start at QB. Lantrip threw for 340 yards in the final game, but Fajardo had started the previous seven games until suffering a badly sprained ankle. The Wolf Pack may have the best defensive player on the field in tackle Brett Roy. The senior led the WAC in tackles for loss (18.5) and sacks (10) and was named first-team All-America by Sports Illustrated.

TRENDS:

* Wolf Pack are 0-4 ATS in their last four Bowl games.
* Golden Eagles are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Wolf Pack's last five Bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Golden Eagles' last five games overall.

PREDICTION: Southern Miss 41, Nevada 35 – In a game between two very gifted offensive teams, Southern gets the edge because of QB Austin Davis.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, December 26

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Independence Bowl: What bettors need to know
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS vs. MISSOURI TIGERS (-5.5, 52.5)

ADVOCARE V100 INDEPENDENCE BOWL STORYLINES

1. Missouri's parting gift from the Big 12 Conference -- the Tigers are headed to the Southeastern Conference along with Texas A&M next season -- was being passed over in the Big 12's bowl pecking order and relegated to a third trip to Shreveport, La., since 2003. The Tigers lost to Arkansas 27-14 in 2003 and rallied for a 38-31 win over South Carolina in 2005. North Carolina is playing in the Independence Bowl for the first time.

2. Both teams boast sophomore quarterbacks who put up big numbers, and they could be relied upon to carry the load, because both defenses are tough against the run. North Carolina's Bryn Renner has passed for 2,769 yards and 23 touchdowns, which ties Chris Keldorf's school record. Missouri's James Franklin has been a catalyst for the Tigers' balanced offense with 2,733 passing yards and 839 rushing yards and 33 total touchdowns.

3. It will be the Tar Heels' final game under interim coach Everett Withers, as former Southern Mississippi coach Larry Fedora will take over after the bowl game. North Carolina won five of its first six games under Withers but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of its last six. Withers announced that he'll be joining Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State after the bowl game.

4. The teams have met only twice, with Missouri winning both meetings in 1973 and 1976. The Tigers won the first contest 27-14 in Chapel Hill and won 24-3 at home three years later. North Carolina has not played a Big 12 opponent since a 52-21 home loss to Texas in 2002, and the Tar Heels haven't beaten a current Big 12 team since a 20-0 win over Kansas in 1986.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Missouri opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has been bet up steadily to 5.5. But you can still find the Tigers at -5 if you shop around. The total is 52.5 or 53, depending on the book.

WEATHER: There's an 80 percent chance of rain at kickoff, with temperatures in the mid-40s and light wind. The chance of rain decreases slightly throughout the game. By 8 p.m. ET, the forecast calls for a 60 percent chance.

ABOUT MISSOURI (7-5, 5-4 Big 12): The Tigers closed the regular season with three straight wins to land in a bowl game for a school-record seventh consecutive season. The Tigers haven't won their last four games of the season since 1965. The late-season success helped make up for a tumultuous stretch in which leading rusher Henry Josey was lost for the season with two torn ligaments and a torn tendon in his left knee and head coach Gary Pinkel was suspended for one game after pleading guilty to a drunk driving charge. Losing Josey proved to be a speed bump for the nation's No. 12 offense (473.2 yards per game) but the defense was up to the task down the stretch, shutting down Texas in a 17-5 home win and stifling Kansas in a 24-10 win in Kansas City to end the regular season.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (7-5, 3-5 ACC): The Tar Heels are playing in a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season, their longest streak since going to seven straight bowl games from 1992-98. Giovani Bernard has rushed for a North Carolina freshman record 1,222 yards, becoming the first Tar Heel to top 1,000 rushing yards since 1997. With 13 rushing touchdowns, he needs one more to tie the school's freshman record. The Tar Heels got some good news when leading receiver Dwight Jones was reinstated to the team. Jones was originally declared ineligible after allowing his name and image to be used to promote a party in his hometown of Burlington, N.C. Jones hauled in a school-record 79 passes for 1,119 this season with 11 going for touchdowns. Bernard and Jones are the first duo in school history to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season.

TRENDS:

- Missouri is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games on grass.
- Missouri is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 neutral-site games.
- North Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.
- North Carolina is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as an underdog.
- Under is 9-3 in Missouri's last 12 non-conference games.
- Under is 9-4 in UNC's last 13 games vs. winning teams.

PREDICTION: Missouri 27, North Carolina 23 -- The Tigers have more weapons and will end a season with four straight wins for the first time in 46 years.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Little Ceaser’s Bowl

Purdue is first Big Dozen team to play in bowl this year; since 2006, Big Dozen teams have been underdog in 30 of 37 bowls-- they’re 3-4 vs spread as a favorite, 13-24 SU in all bowls. Western Michigan is 0-4 in bowls, losing 27-24 (+7) in ’06, 38-14 (+3) in ’08. Purdue is in bowl for first time since ’07, when they beat Central Michigan 51-48 (-7.5) in this bowl; underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in Boilers’ last five bowls. Broncos covered their last four games as an underdog- they scored 50 ppg in last four games, losing one game 66-63. Purdue lost to Rice this year; how good can they be? MAC teams lost this bowl last four years, all by 4 or less points- they’re 2-0 in bowls this year, 6-17 since ’06, 4-11 against spread as a bowl underdog. Underdogs covered this bowl six of the last seven years, including last four in row, winning last three SU.

Belk Bowl

NC State made bowl behind junior QB Glennon after basically cutting Russell Wilson because of his playing minor league baseball instead of spring football. Wolfpack lost its first three games vs I-A teams this year but won five of last seven- they’re 2-2 as a favorite. Louisville is 6-0 as an underdog; they won five of their last six games behind freshman QB Bridgewater to get here; they lost 14-7 to North Carolina, a team State beat 13-0- both teams lost to Cincinnati. O’Brien is 8-2 in bowl games, 1-1 with NC State; Wolfpack won four of last five bowls, covering last three as a favorite. Louisville won three of last four bowls; average total in their last five is 63.2. ACC teams are 5-3 in this bowl, losing last two; last three bowls were decided by 5 or less points. Wolfpack (-3.5) beat South Florida 14-0 in this bowl six years ago. Big East teams are 6-4 in last 10 bowls vs ACC teams.

Military Bowl

Toledo coach Beckman is off to be new coach at Illinois Air Force won four of last five games but is just 5-5 vs I-AA teams this year, despite being underdog in only three of 10 lined games (2-1 as dog in ’11, 12-8-1 as dogs under Calhoun); they're in 5th straight bowl, winning 47-20/14-7 last two years. Toledo gave up 63 points in consecutive games this year but split the pair; they averaged 52.8 ppg in last five games (average total in last seven was 83.1). Rockets are 5-3 as favorites last two years, 3-2 this year. Favorite won/covered this bowl all three years its been played; Toledo lost three of last four bowls, with average total 62.3; Rockets lost 34-32 to FIU LY, their first bowl since ’05. This is first time a regional team won’t be involved in this game. MAC teams are 6-17 in their last 23 bowls, 2-0 this year- they’re 3-3-1 vs spread as bowl favorite. MWC teams are 16-7 in last 23 bowls, 2-2 this year; they’re 5-4 vs spread in last nine games as a bowl underdog.

Holiday Bowl

Texas lost three of last four games, thanks to subpar QB play, banged-up RBs; they’re 5-3 as favorite this year, 12-14 since ’09. Longhorns are 12-12 last two years, after being 101-16 the nine years before that, so no doubt Texas coaches are in this to win it, being on hot seat and all. Cal Bears allowed 31+ points in six of their last nine games- they’re 2-2 as a dog. Cal-Texas both missed bowls LY, after losing bowls the year before; three of Longhorns’ last four bowl wins are by 3 or less points. Tedford is 5-2 in bowls, Brown 12-7. Average total in Cal’s last five bowls is 60.2. Big X-Pac 12 split this bowl last eight years; Texas won this game in ’07, Cal the year before; favorites are 3-2 last five years, in what had been underdog-dominated bowl. Since 2006, Pac-12 teams are 5-7 vs spread as bowl underdogs; Big X teams are just 9-16 as bowl favorites the last 5+ years.

Champs Sports Bowl

Underdogs are 29-13 vs spread in ACC’s last 42 bowls, with ACC clubs 7-15 as bowl favorite since ’06. Florida State won six of its last seven games, allowing 11.3 ppg, after three-game skid early in year, when they gave up 31.3 ppg; Seminoles are 6-3 as favorite this year, 12-7 in two years under Fisher. Notre Dame is 8-4 this year despite being underdog only once, a 28-14 (+7) loss to Stanford in last game; they’re 3-2 as dog under Kelly. Dogs covered this game five of last six years; Florida State’s 42-13 win over Wisconsin in 2008 was only cover; four of last six totals were 34 or less. Seminoles won last three bowls by 29-12-9 points, scoring 33.7 ppg- this is only second time they’ve been favored in last six bowls. Notre Dame won its last two bowls 49-21/35-17; this is first time in nine years they’re playing a bowl in Florida (lost 28-6 in '02 to NC State in Gator Bowl).

Alamo Bowl

Heady times for Baylor, with Heisman winner Griffin and great hoop team; Bears lost Texas Bowl 38-14 LY, their first bowl in 16 years- their last bowl win was ’92 Sun Bowl. Baylor is 5-2 as favorite this year, 12-6 in four years under Briles- they scored 53 ppg in last three games, but also allowed 38+ points in five of last seven games- average total in their eleven lined games was 82.0. Washington lost four of last six games, allowing 34+ points in all four losses- they failed to cover last three tries as an underdog, are 10-12 as a dog under Sarkisian. Big X teams won five of last six Alamo Bowls; favorites covered three of last four. Washington (+14) upset Nebraska in Holiday Bowl LY, its first bowl in eight years. Huskies covered last three bowls as an underdog. Baylor will have big edge in crowd support in San Antonio. Winning Heisman brings many distractions; how did Griffin/Baylor handle them?

[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 27

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What bettors need to know: Louisville vs. NC State
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Louisville vs. North Carolina State (-1, 44.5)

BELK BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Charlie Strong starts 10 freshmen at Louisville and began the season 2-4 before rallying to make a push for the Big East’s BCS bid. The Cardinals ultimately fell short, but ended up winning two straight on the road to finish the season and become bowl eligible.

2. North Carolina State had an even more improbable ascent to bowl eligibility, beating then-No. 7 Clemson on Nov. 19 to get to six wins and capping its regular season with the largest comeback in school history in a 56-41 victory over Maryland the following week. The Wolfpack came from four touchdowns behind and scored 35 points in the fourth quarter.

3. NC State will be hard-pressed to put up that kind of offense against the Cardinals, who have relied on a defense that allows an average of 19.2 points - the 14th-best mark in the nation.

4. The Cardinals will be playing in their second straight bowl game after beating Southern Miss in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl last December. The Wolfpack are marking two in a row as well. They took down Big East school West Virginia in the Citrus Bowl last season.

5. Louisville wide receiver Michaelee Harris will miss the Belk Bowl on Tuesday with a knee injury. Harris sustained the injury during practice and will not face North Carolina State. The freshman was the team leader in both receptions (37) and receiving yards (455). He also had two touchdowns. Eli Rogers and Josh Chichester are expected to see more playing time in Harris' absence.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: NC State -1, 44.5. The line opened with the Wolfpack as 2 point favorites and were bet up a point before moving closing to a pick 'em. The total opened a point higher at 45.5 but just about every shop is dealing 44.5 now.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-5, 5-2 Big East): The Cardinals began to turn their season around when true freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater found his stride. The Miami native ran for a pair of touchdowns in a 34-20 win over Connecticut on Nov. 19 that made Louisville bowl eligible and turned in his best game in the season finale against South Florida, passing for a career-high three touchdowns and no interceptions in a 34-24 win. The performance clinched Bridgewater the Big East Rookie of the Year Award.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (7-5, 4-4 ACC): The Wolfpack peaked at the right time, winning their final two games in dramatic fashion after suffering a loss to Boston College on Nov. 12. North Carolina State got some early experience against a Big East foe in a 44-14 loss at Cincinnati on Sep. 22. Senior quarterback Mike Glennon threw five touchdown passes in the win over Maryland and totaled 28 this season against 11 interceptions.

TRENDS:

The Cards are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as underdogs, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games against ACC opponents and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.

The Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.

The under is 5-1 in N.C. State's last six games and 8-3-1 in Louisville's last 12 games.

PREDICTION: Louisville 24, NC State 17. The Cardinals have the talent on defense to shut down Glennon, forcing the Wolfpack to feature a suspect rushing attack.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Tuesday, December 27

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What bettors need to know: Western Michigan vs. Purdue
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Western Michigan vs. Purdue (-2.5, 60)

LITTLE CAESARS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Which team can continue its late-season momentum? Purdue won two of its last three games, including 26-23 victory over Ohio State. Western Michigan won three of its last four and owns a victory over UConn of the Big East.

2. Motivation will be crucial. While some schools from a major conference like Purdue might suffer a mental letdown against an opponent from a non-BCS conference, that’s not likely to happen with the Boilermakers, who haven’t been to a bowl game since 2007. Purdue has won both previous meetings, but both were close games: 28-13 in 1993 and 28-24 in 2002.

3. Both teams are in good shape if the decision comes down to a late kick. Purdue’s Carson Wiggs has made 16 of 21 field goals and 35 of 36 extra points. Wiggs also kicked the five longest field goals in school history. Western Michigan’s John Potter has made 15 of 21 field goals and had made all 54 extra point attempts.

4. Western Michigan will be trying to reverse a trend. Purdue is 38-9-1 against MAC teams.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Purdue -2.5. No line movement to speak of in this bowl game. The Boilermakers have been 2-point faves since the line opened and the total is still sitting at 60.

ABOUT PURDUE (6-6, 4-4 Big Ten): The Boilermakers average 371.4 yards of offense, but aren’t particularly strong in any aspect, ranking 79th in the nation. Junior QB Caleb TerBush has thrown for 1,804 yards and 12 touchdowns and the running game, which ranks 39th in the nation, features Ralph Bolden (674 yards, six TDs) and Akeem Shavers (370 yards, six TDs). Justin Siler (45 catches, one TD) and Antavian Edison (43 catches, three TDs) are the top receivers. The defense is led by fifth-year senior Joe Holland, who has started 47 of 48 possible games with 315 career tackles, and junior tackle Kawann Short, who has posted career bests in tackles (53), tackles for loss (17) and sacks (6.5). Keep an eye on kick returner Raheem Mostert, who led the Big Ten with a 31-yard average.

ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN (7-5, 5-3 Mid-American Conference): The Broncos were the No. 1 passing team in the MAC, averaging 328 yards per game. QB Alex Carder has thrown for 3,434 yards and 28 touchdowns. His favorite target is senior Jordan White, a consensus All-American who has 127 receptions (13.0 yard average) with 16 TDs. White also led the MAC with a 13.1-yard punt return average. Chleb Ravenell also has 59 catches and eight TDs. Western Michigan’s defense is led by Drew Nowak, a third-team All-American who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year; he had 83 tackles, 20 tackles for loss (fourth in the NCAA), 8.5 sacks, recovered two fumbles and blocked two kicks.

TRENDS: The Broncos are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall but 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.

Purdue is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite and 0-4 in it last four bowl games.

PREDICTION: Western Michigan 31, Purdue 28 – The Broncos win this one through the air and receiver Jordan White becomes part of the national discussion.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 28

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What bettors need to know: Air Force vs. Toledo
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Air Force vs. Toledo (-3, 71)

MILITARY BOWL STORYLINES

1. Toledo and Air Force meet for the first time, but only one team will have the same coach it had when the season started. Tim Beckman, who was 21-16 in three seasons at Toledo, left Dec. 9 to take the same position at Illinois. Beckman turned around a program in disarray with three straight losing seasons into a team playing in its second straight bowl. Offensive coordinator Matt Campbell will serve as interim coach. Air Force is coached by Troy Calhoun, who has the Falcons in a school-record fifth straight bowl game.

2. A statistical mismatch can be found in rushing defense. Toledo is 23rd in the nation among the 120 FBS teams at 123.1 yards per game while Air Force is 113th (227.7). The Rockets will face the No. 2 rushing offense (320.3); the Falcons go against the No. 14 running attack (221.1), led by Adonis Thomas and his 107 yards per game (17th in the country). Toledo’s pass defense is 109th at 277.9.

3. Air Force is 10-10-1 in bowl games and has won two straight, including a 14-7 victory over Georgia Tech in the 2010 Independence Bowl. Toledo is 7-4, including a 34-32 loss to Florida International in last season’s Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl.

4. Air Force is 17-8 against non-conference foes in five seasons under Calhoun and has won 10 of its last 12 such games, with the losses at Oklahoma in 2010 and at Notre Dame this season.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: Toledo -3, 71. Not a lot of movement on this spread but a few places in Vegas have moved it up to 3.5. The total, one of the highest of the bowl season, is holding at 71.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (7-5, 3-4 Mountain West): Tim Jefferson holds the school record for most wins by a quarterback with 28, but doesn’t throw much in the Falcons’ run-happy offense. He attempted only 161 passes this season, completing 60.9 percent of them with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. Air Force played MWC foe Boise State tough on the road before falling 37-26.

ABOUT TOLEDO (8-4, 7-1 Mid-American): The Rockets also played Boise State – a 40-15 loss at home on Sept. 16. Toledo has won three straight and seven of its last eight. Terrance Owens took over at quarterback for Austin Dantin (concussion) and threw nine touchdowns in the last three games. Toledo averaged 42.2 points, eighth in the nation.

TRENDS:

Toledo is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite but 1-4-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.

Air Force is 5-2 in its last seven games

PREDICTION: Air Force 35, Toledo 31 – Calhoun and the Falcons will figure out a way to keep the Rockets somewhat grounded and exploit Toledo’s suspect pass defense.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, December 28

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What bettors need to know: California vs. Texas
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California vs. Texas (-3, 47)

HOLIDAY BOWL STORYLINES

1. After its 12-year postseason run was snapped in 2010, Texas improved enough this season to return to a bowl game. But after a 4-0 start propelled them all the way to No. 11 in the rankings, the Longhorns stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their final four games.

2. As bad as Texas was in the season’s final month, California was the opposite, winning three of its final four games and losing only at Stanford by a field goal. Running back Isi Sofele ran for at least 96 yards in all four of those games, including a season-high 190 on 23 carries in a 23-6win against Oregon State.

3. These two teams couldn’t be more different at the quarterback position. Zach Maynard, California’s dual-threat junior, started every game of the season and averaged 246 yards of total offense per game. Texas flip-flopped at quarterback all season, starting with incumbent Garrett Gilbert, who ended up getting injured and transferring. The Longhorns wound up with a two-quarterback system utilizing youngsters David Ash and Case McCoy.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Texas-3, 47. This line dropped from Texas -4 to -3 with the juice about 10 cents higher before Texas bettors moved the number back up to -4 at most books. The total opened at 48 but most shops have it either at 47 or 47.5.

ABOUT TEXAS (7-5, 4-5 Big 12): The Longhorns’ struggles offensively – particularly at quarterback – opened the door for the defense to shine brightly in 2011. Texas was tops in the Big 12 and 14th nationally at 315.3 yards allowed per game, but the team is coming off an awful performance in a 48-24 loss at Baylor to close the regular season. As table of running backs, led by true freshman Malcolm Brown, averaged 210 yards on the ground and helped carry the Longhorns’ offense.

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12): This is the Golden Bears’ third appearance in the Holiday Bowl. Sofele averaged 141.3 rushing yards over the season’s final four games to finish with 1,266 yards and nine touchdowns in the regular season. He’ll be asked to carry the load against a Texas defense that was stout against the run, surrendering only103 yards per game. Cal ranks in the top 50 but no higher than No. 25 nationally in virtually every major offensive and defensive category.

TRENDS:

Cal is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall but 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in December.

Texas is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with winning records and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 bowl games.

PREDICTION: California 28, Texas 17. The Golden Bears will ride the legs of Sofele to move to 6-2 in bowl games under coach Jeff Tedford.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 29

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What bettors need to know: Notre Dame vs. Florida State
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Notre Dame vs. Florida State (-3.5, 46)

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Two storied programs working to get back to national relevance square off in the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. Both No. 25 Florida State and Notre Dame started the season ranked in the Top 20 and had dreams of competing for a national championship, but those dreams came crashing down as they finished with identical 8-4 records.

2. Florida State’s junior cornerback Avis Commack and freshman linebacker Arrington Jenkins were both arrested on charges of theft in December. Commack allegedly stole a female student’s iPad on Dec. 6, while Jenkins – who is redshirting this season – allegedly stole a motorcycle from a residence close to his. In addition, Jermaine Thomas, the team’s second-leading rusher, is also ineligible for the bowl after failing to pass a class in the fall semester.

3. A little more than 18 years ago, these two schools faced each other as the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 teams on Nov. 13, 1993. Notre Dame won the game 31-24, but was upset by Boston College a week later and went on to watch the Seminoles win the national championship over Nebraska.

TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Florida State opened as a 3-point favorite but that number had moved up to 3.5 by Wednesday evening. The total is holding around 46 after opening as high as 48.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (8-4, 5-3 ACC): The Seminoles – who have appeared in a national-best 30 consecutive bowl games — led the ACC and were fourth nationally in allowing only 15.2 points per game, including 9.4 over the final five games of the season. Opponents averaged an FBS-low 2.3 yards per carry on the ground against Florida State, which could make things difficult for Notre Dame running back Cierre Wood.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-4): The Fighting Irish made strides in their second year under coach Brian Kelly, but they turned in their share of stinkers as well. Impressive wins over Michigan State and Pittsburgh were overshadowed by double-digit losses to USC and Stanford and a heartbreaking last-second defeat at Michigan in the second week of the season. Quarterback Tommy Rees was benched in the 28-14 loss to the Cardinal, but he’s expected to be back with the first team for the bowl game.

TRENDS:
- Notre Dame is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight bowl games.
- The over is 8-3 in Florida State's last 11 neutral site games.
- Florida State is 5-2 against the spread in its last seven overall and 6-0-1 against the spread in its last seven bowl games.


PREDICTION: Florida State 21, Notre Dame 13. Despite the off-field distractions, the Seminoles’ attacking defense will be too much for the Irish to handle.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 29

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Tale of the tape: Notre Dame vs. Florida State
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Florida State Seminoles (-3.5, 46)

Offense

The Seminoles average 31.7 points per game despite a total offense that ranks 75th nationally, producing about 375 yards per game. E.J. Manuel is averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt for a passing offense that’s carrying the running game. The Seminoles manage about 258 passing yards per game with five players hauling in at least 25 catches. They average only 118 rushing yards per game.

Notre Dame is more balanced, producing 258 passing yards and 166 rushing yards per contest. That has helped the Irish put up 30.5 points per contest with the 35th ranked total offense in the nation. Cierre Wood paces the rushing attack by averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He finished with 1042 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Quarterback Tommy Rees completes 65.9 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while Michael Floyd might be the top wideout in the country after hauling in 95 catches for more than 1100 yards.

Edge: Irish


Defense

The Seminoles have a scary defensive unit that allows just 15.2 points and 274.6 total yards per game. Florida State has a dominant run defense that has yielded just eight rushing touchdowns this season while holding opponents to 81.2 yards per contest. Defensive end Brandon Jenkins paced the team with seven of the club’s 36 sacks this season.

Linebacker Manti Te’o is Notre Dame’s leader on defense and was a finalist for both the Lott and Butkus Awards this year after piling up 115 tackles this year, including 15 for a loss. The Irish allow 20.9 points per game and are holding opponents to fewer than four yards per carry. However, opposing quarterbacks have burned their secondary for 21 touchdowns this year while Notre Dame has picked off just eight passes.

Edge: Seminoles


Special teams

Both teams are solid in kick returns, but the kicking game could swing the balance. With David Ruffer handling the kicking duties, the Irish have hit just 66.7 percent of their field goal attempts this season. Punter Ben Turk is solid, but Florida State’s punter Shawn Powell is ranked No. 1 in the country and kicker Dustin Hopkins has hit 80 percent of the team’s field goals. He was named all-ACC.

Edge: Seminoles


Word on the street

"We're going to play them both and see how it goes. Florida State's really good. So we've got to see how both those guys handle the situation. They're both prepared, we've had plenty of time, there's no excuses, both of them can go in there and play the game and we'll just kind of see how it goes." – Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly on playing both Tommy Rees and Andrew Hendrix against FSU. Rees will start the game.

“Within the next five years, we’re definitely going to be back in the national title conversation.” – FSU punter Shawn Powell.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Thursday, December 29

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What bettors need to know: Washington vs. Baylor
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Washington vs. Baylor

ALAMO BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III may wrap up his college career when he leads No. 16 Baylor against Washington. Griffin has one year of eligibility left, but after leading the Bears back to prominence and setting 46 school records along the way, it seems likely this will be his final collegiate appearance.

2. It could be a perfect scenario for Griffin’s finale. Washington brings one of the worst pass defenses in the FBS into the matchup, ranking 116th out of 120 schools in allowing 283.8 passing yards per game.

3. The Bears haven’t appeared in consecutive bowl games since the 1991-92, and Baylor hasn’t won a bowl game since beating Arizona in the 1992 Sun Bowl. The Bears lost 38-14 to Illinois in last season’s Texas Bowl.

4. Washington will rely on quarterback Keith Price and running back Chris Polk to try to exploit Baylor's No. 114 overall defense. If Price and Polk can play well, this game may turn into a shootout.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: Some oddsmakers had Baylor favored by as many as 10 points at the open, but the Bears now sit around -9. The total is holding steady around 78.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5, 5-4 Pac-12 North): The Huskies were 5-1 at one time, but an ugly 65-21 loss to then-No. 8 Stanford on Oct. 22 sent Washington reeling. The Huskies lost four out of five, rebounding to beat Washington State 38-21 in the regular-season finale. Price’s 29 touchdown passes this season broke the school record. Polk enters the game with 1,341 rushing yards, 75 shy of his total from last season. Polk gained 177 yards as the Huskies upset Nebraska 19-7 in the Holiday Bowl last season.

ABOUT BAYLOR (9-3, 6-3 Big 12): As always, all conversation surrounding Baylor starts with Griffin, who has passed for 3,998 yards and 36 touchdowns this season against only six interceptions. He has also rushed for nine scores, but Griffin has plenty of help fueling a Baylor offense that ranks sixth nationally in average points scored (43.5). Running back Terrance Ganaway has rushed for 1,347 yards and 16 touchdowns, and receiver Kendall Wright caught 101 passes this season for 1,572 yards and 13 scores.

TRENDS:
- Washington is 11-5-1 against the spread in its last 17 games overall.
- Baylor is 4-1 against the spread in its last five.
- The over is 16-4-1 in Baylor's last 21 games.

PREDICTION: Baylor 45, Washington 34 - If this is Griffin's swan song, he’ll go out with a flourish as the Bears cap their first 10-win season since 1980.


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