NFL Week 13

[roccodean]

More to follow. Line moving so wanted to post early. Full analysis to follow.

Based on 1-5*

2* Buffalo -1.5 over Tenn

[roccodean]

1* Seattle +3 over Philly
Although Philly is not mathematically eliminated from playoffs, realistically they are out. Going from the "dream team" to getting their playoff hopes dash is a huge psychological blow and I don't see them getting up for this gaem. Seattle has a great home field advantage, and coming off a favorite loss they will be ready to get the W. Also, Philly is on a short week and has to travel cross country. Philly's strength is their run game (1st in league), but Seattle has a great run D (4th). On the defensive end Philly is bad allowing 7.7 YPPA (25th) and 22nd against the run, which should help Seattle's sub-par offense.

[Sirporkie]

Gl

[Swoleslaw]

GL Rocco

[Kaptain]

good call on Seattle, gl this weekend

[10DimeBry]

GL this weekend rocco

[roccodean]

thanks guys. may add mia and nyg

2* Buffalo -1.5 over Tenn (line is pick now but ill grade at -1.5 bc thats what i posted)
Buffalo has lost 4 in a row, but after a close game last week I think they got some confidence. The Titans are in a tough schedule spot as this is their 3rd game on the road in their last 4. Meanwhile, Buffalo is in a favorable schedule spot as they are coming off 3 consecutive road and have to travel next week. Statistically, it's tough to see how the Titans are 6-5. They are 30th in running offense and 22nd in passing offense. Defensively they are 18th against the run. Buffalo is 5th in running offense and will control this game. There is a solid 156-71 ATS trend favoring Buffalo based on scheduling. Nobody circles the wagon like the Buffalo Bills!

2* Washington +3 over N.Y. Jets
This is a typical WWF NFL game that the Skins will win. In they eyes of the public the Jets are a good team, but they aren't. They average 3.8 YPR and are 22nd in pass D. Defensively they allow 4.1 YPR and are 12th in YPPA. Actually, Washington's offense is statistically better that the Jets. Defensively Washington is pretty good as they are ranked 13th against the run and 18 versus the pass. Washington lost 6 in a row before they won as a dog last and being a home dog this week puts them in a great position for the upset. The Jets are in a "must win" to keep their playoff hopes alive and I love betting against teams in this situation. We put too much emphasis on this, assuming that teams play harder or better in these spots, which is not usually the case.

[roccodean]

1* Mia -3 over Oakl
Oakland has won 3 in a row, but they will get handed an L here. Oakland has strong run game, but Miami’s D has been playing lights out lately and are 7th in the league. They are 13th versus the pass. Oakland has the worst run D in the league which will allow Miami to control this game.

[Spark]

Nice posts rocco ... thanks and Good Luck

[LeRoy]

GL today Rocco