Announcement

**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 01:26 AM

Thursday’s betting tips: Bettors siding with 49ers

Who’s hot

NCAAF: The over is 6-1 in Texas A&M’s last seven as a favorite.

NCAAB: UConn has covered the number in 10 of its last 12.

NCAAB: Florida State is 7-1-1 in its last nine overall.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Texas is 1-5 against the spread in its last six meetings with Texas A&M.

NCAAB: Wake Forest is 8-28 against the spread in its last 36 neutral site games.

NCAAB: Villanova is 1-15 against the spread in its last 16 overall.

Key stat

79 – The NFL has seen 79 games decided by seven or fewer points heading into Week 12, which is second only to 81 games in 1988.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

James Starks, Green Bay Packers – Starks remains a game-time decision for Thursday's game against the Detroit Lions but he did participate in the team’s walkthrough on Wednesday. Starks is battling knee and ankle injuries and is officially listed as questionable for the contest. The 25-year-old was injured in last week's win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, limited to just 11 carries for 38 yards. Head coach Mike McCarthy said Starks will not be limited if he is able to play. Starks has 120 rushes for 541 yards and a touchdown so far this season.

Game of the day

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (6, 55.5)

Notable quotable

"The fact that it's the last one for a long time ....Coach (Mike) Sherman has hit that with our guys. This is the one that you're going to be talking about, 10 or 20 years from now. The last time we played Texas, did we win or lose? And we've got a chance to affect that. That's our challenge and that's what's driving us." – Texas A&M defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter about Thursday’s matchup with Texas. This could be the last matchup between the two clubs until 2018 at the earliest. A&M is currently set as an 8-point favorite.

Notes and tips

It looks as though bettors are going to ride the San Francisco 49ers as underdogs Thursday evening. Some books had the Niners set as high as +4.5 as they get set to invade Baltimore in Thanksgiving’s nightcap, but as of Wednesday evening they were hovering between +3.5 and +3 with more than 62 percent of *********** Consensus bettors supporting San Francisco. The 49ers are 9-0-1 against the spread this season. Baltimore’s middle linebacker Ray Lewis remains a game-time decision after missing last week’s game with a foot injury.

Texas A&M senior running back Cyrus Gray is still listed as a game-time decision for Thursday's date with Texas. Originally, A&M's training staff thought Gray had just suffered a bruised shoulder, but it turned out to be a stress fracture. Gray has rumbled for 1045 yards and 12 touchdowns this season and if he can't go it will be a huge loss with Christine Michael already out.

**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 01:31 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 24

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TEXAS TECH (3 - 0) vs. INDIANA ST (4 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS TECH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA ST is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA ST is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANA ST is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (4 - 0) vs. DEPAUL (2 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 2:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DAYTON (2 - 1) vs. WAKE FOREST (3 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DAYTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DAYTON is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 17-40 ATS (-27.0 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 17-40 ATS (-27.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 19-42 ATS (-27.2 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
WAKE FOREST is 138-177 ATS (-56.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA ST (1 - 2) vs. FAIRFIELD (2 - 2) - 11/24/2011, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in November games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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COLL OF CHARLESTON (3 - 0) vs. UCF (2 - 1) - 11/24/2011, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
COLL OF CHARLESTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MASSACHUSETTS (4 - 0) vs. FLORIDA ST (4 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MASSACHUSETTS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
MASSACHUSETTS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UNC-ASHEVILLE (2 - 2) vs. CONNECTICUT (4 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HARVARD (3 - 0) vs. UTAH (1 - 2) - 11/24/2011, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BOSTON COLLEGE (1 - 2) vs. SAINT LOUIS (3 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 99-69 ATS (+23.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
SAINT LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SAINT LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VILLANOVA (3 - 0) vs. UC-RIVERSIDE (1 - 2) - 11/24/2011, 4:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW MEXICO (2 - 1) vs. SANTA CLARA (2 - 1) - 11/24/2011, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SANTA CLARA is 68-45 ATS (+18.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
SANTA CLARA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OKLAHOMA (2 - 0) vs. WASHINGTON ST (2 - 1) - 11/24/2011, 11:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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C MICHIGAN (2 - 1) vs. NEW MEXICO ST (3 - 0) - 11/24/2011, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 45-67 ATS (-28.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
C MICHIGAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UC-IRVINE (0 - 3) vs. SOUTHERN MISS (2 - 1) - 11/24/2011, 11:59 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 01:40 AM

NCAAB

Thursday, November 24

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Trend Report
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12:30 AM
DARTMOUTH vs. SAN FRANCISCO
No trends available
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
TEXAS TECH vs. INDIANA STATE
No trends available
Indiana State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
College of Charleston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Central Florida
College of Charleston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
No trends available

2:00 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. SAINT LOUIS
No trends available
Saint Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saint Louis's last 7 games

2:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DEPAUL
No trends available
DePaul is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games

4:30 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. FLORIDA STATE
Massachusetts is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
No trends available

4:30 PM
VILLANOVA vs. UC RIVERSIDE
No trends available
UC Riverside is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games

7:00 PM
UNC ASHEVILLE vs. CONNECTICUT
No trends available
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
DAYTON vs. WAKE FOREST
No trends available
Wake Forest is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games

9:00 PM
NEW MEXICO vs. SANTA CLARA
No trends available
Santa Clara is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

9:30 PM
HARVARD vs. UTAH
No trends available
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

9:30 PM
ARIZONA STATE vs. FAIRFIELD
No trends available
Fairfield is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

10:30 PM
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. NEW MEXICO STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Mexico State's last 6 games
New Mexico State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

11:30 PM
OKLAHOMA vs. WASHINGTON STATE
No trends available
Washington State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington State's last 15 games

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**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 01:42 AM

NCAAB

Thursday, November 24

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College funds: Thursday's best NCAAB bets
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N.C. Asheville Bulldogs at Connecticut Huskies (-13, 139.5)

UConn may not have Kemba Walker to hit their big shots this season, but it looks like they have a couple of guys ready to handle the scoring load.

Through four games, Jeremy Lamb is averaging 22.8 points per game and Shabazz Napier is chipping in 18 per contest to pace the Huskies to an undefeated record heading into the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in Paradise Island.

Napier took the spotlight in UConn’s most recent win, going off for 22 points, 13 assists and 12 boards in an 87-70 victory over Choppin State.

"To come in and do a triple-double, with all that pressure on him: Don't foul, take care of the ball, let's not turn it over. He is one tough kid. He is crafty. I thought he was just terrific," coach Jim Calhoun told reporters of Napier.

UConn supporters have seen just one spread for their Huskies so far this season and went home empty handed as their club downed Columbia 70-57 as 21.5-point favorite. They should be able to earn their first payday in this one.

Pick: Huskies

Dayton at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6, 140)

Like so many teams this time of year, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons are going through a learning curve right now. They’re still looking to get comfortable with systems and need these early games to get on the same page.

They took a step in the right direction Sunday, beating up on NC Central 93-79. They hit better than 70 percent of their trey attempts and shot 57.6 percent from the floor.

"We're starting to gel a little bit as a team, getting to know each other's tendencies,'' freshman Chase Fischer told reporters. "And I think it's just going to keep progressing. We're going to be a really fun team to watch five games in, and then when ACC play starts.''

They’ll open up play in the Old Spice Classic Thursday in Orlando looking to build on their 3-0 straight up record (1-1 against the spread) against Dayton.
This one should be close.

Pick: Demon Deacons

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**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 01:43 AM

NOTE:
For the initial posting of trends and indexes, we have provided information available up to the time of posting.
Additional updates for today’s games will be posted ASAP.

**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 09:13 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Arizona State vs. Fairfield
The Stags look to build on their 13-3 ATS record in their last 16 games as a favorite of 1 to 6 1/2 points. Fairfield is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stags favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24

Game 741-742: Texas Tech vs. Indiana State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 55.821; Indiana State 63.485
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 7 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 5 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-7 1/2); Over

Game 743-744: Minnesota vs. DePaul (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 64.605; DePaul 58.280
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+9 1/2); Under

Game 745-746: Dayton vs. Wake Forest (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 58.524; Wake Forest 53.667
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 5; 143
Vegas Line: Dayton by 6 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+6 1/2); Over

Game 747-748: Arizona State vs. Fairfield (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 52.229; Fairfield 58.587
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 6 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 3 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-3 1/2); Under

Game 749-750: Central Florida vs. College of Charleston (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 59.578; College of Charleston 59.943
Dunkel Line: Even; 136
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+2 1/2); Under

Game 751-752: FSU vs. Massachusetts (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: FSU 69.278; Massachusetts 60.680
Dunkel Line: FSU by 8 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: FSU by 7 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: FSU (-7 1/2); Over

Game 753-754: NC-Asheville vs. Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 53.693; Connecticut 69.798
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 16; 146
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 13 1/2; 141
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-13 1/2); Over

Game 755-756: Harvard vs. Utah (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 59.233; Utah 51.915
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 7 1/2;
Vegas Line: Harvard by 15; 136
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+15); Under

Game 757-758: Boston College vs. St. Louis (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 48.964; St. Louis 68.007
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 19;
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 17 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-17 1/2); Under

Game 759-760: Villanova vs. UC-Riverside (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 65.423; UC-Riverside 54.820
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 10 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Villanova by 13; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Riverside (+13); Over

Game 761-762: New Mexico vs. Santa Clara (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 62.972; Santa Clara 56.924
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 6; 135
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 7 1/2; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+7 1/2); Under

Game 763-764: Oklahoma vs. Washington State (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 60.102; Washington State 64.007
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 4; 151
Vegas Line: Washington State by 2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (-2); Over

Game 765-766: Central Michigan vs. New Mexico State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 49.692; New Mexico State 64.097
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 14 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 9 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 767-768: UC-Irvine vs. Southern Mississippi (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 52.365; Southern Mississippi 60.583
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 8; 144
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 11; No Total
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+11); N/A

**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 09:16 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, November 24

Old Spice Classic

Texas Tech is 3-0 under new coach Gillispie, with pair of 5-point wins over Sun Belt teams; they step up in class here vs Indiana State squad that has four starters back from LY's 20-14 team. Sycamores won first four games, allowing 55 ppg in last three, beating Ball State by a point, Green Bay by 7. Big X teams are 1-8-1 vs spread away from home.

DePaul hasn't played in 10 days; they scored 85.5 ppg in beating couple chumps by 19-10 points; Blue Demons have four starters back from LY's 7-24 team, but also has talented newcomers. Minnesota allowed 56.5 ppg in 4-0 start, with best win by 10 over Fairfield. Big Dozen road favorites are 6-3 vs spread. Big East underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread.

Dayton allowed 58 ppg in 2-1 start, losing only road game at Miami Oh in OT; Flyers have three starters back from 22-14 team, and also have a new coach. Wake Forest scored 83 ppg in 3-0 start; best win was 75-63 over Loyola Md- they're up in class here. A-14 road favorites are 9-5 vs spread; ACC underdogs are 2-5. Deacons are picked 11th in the ACC.

Arizona State is off to 1-2 start, with all three games at home; they've turned ball over 26% of time, uncharacterisitc of a Sendek team. ASU lost three starters from LY's 12-19 team. Fairfield is 2-2, losing to both teams they played ranked better than #183 (ASU is ranked #116). Pac-10 road underdogs of 6 or less points are 3-5; MAAC favorites are 1-4.

Battle for Atlantis

Charleston allowed 65 ppg in 3-0 start, winning 72-69 at Clemson, by 9 over Holy Cross; Cougars lost three starters from LY's 26-11 team- they made 38% of shots on arc in first three games. Central Florida lost by 23 to Florida State; only decent team they've played. UCF is shooting just 34% from arc. C-USA single digit road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread.

Florida State scored 77.8 ppg in 4-0 start, with all four wins by 12+; so far, Seminoles are making 59% of 2-point shots, rebounding 45% of all misses- they're #3 pick in ACC. UMas just pounded Boston College of ACC by 36; they've won their three games vs D-I teams by 18-16-36. Minuteman are 5th in US blocking shots. Lot of athletes in this game.

UConn is off to 4-0 start, but this is best team they've faced so far, all four Huskies' wins were by 12+ points. NC-Asheville lost to NC State by 9, North Carolina by 16, scoring 75 points both games; they lost by 23 to Pitt in NCAAs LY, have four starters back from that 20-14 team. Big East double digit favorites are 7-11 against the spread this season.

Harvard beat Holy Cross by 9, LMU by 10; they were down 13 early in last game, still won/covered; Crimson has all five starters back from LY's 23-7 team that lost Ivy title game at buzzer. Utah is 0-2 vs D-I teams, losing by 21 at Boise State, by 6 at home to Montana State. Underdogs from Pac-10 are 8-7-1 vs spread. Still, laying 15 here is lot of points.

76 Classic

Boston College has been horrible, losing to Holy Cross by 22, to UMass by 36; Eagles are making just 38.8% of 2-points, 59% of foul shots- not good. Saint Louis is 3-0, beating Southern Illinois by 19, Washington by 13- they were up 25 at the half over Huskies. Saint Louis opponents are making just 35% of 2-point shots. A-14 favorites are 16-7 vs spread.

Young Villanova team (lost three starters from LY's 21-12 team) won its first three games, scoring 87 ppg, with OT win over LaSalle, wins by 36 over Monmouth, 10 over Delaware. Cal-Riverside scored 45 ppg losing last two games, by 11 at UTEP, in OT at Youngstown, despite having four starters back from LY. Big West underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

New Mexico is supposed to be one of best teams in Mountain West; so far, they've split two games vs D-I teams, losing to New Mexico State at home, winning by 5 at Arizona State. Not great- they've turned ball over 28% of time- bad. Santa Clara lost by 33 at Santa Barbara, then best San Jose by 26. Mountain West favorites are 9-8 against the spread.

Oklahoma has new coach (Kruger) but four starters back from its 14-18 team that got the last coach fired; Sooners scored 85 ppg in winning first two games against chumps- they're rebounding 52.3% of their misses, #1 figure in country. Washington State has three starters back from a 22-13 team, but lost the best two- they're 2-1, losing by 8 at Gonzaga.

Alaskan Shootout

New Mexico State is 3-0, winning by 14-9-16 points, with impressive win at New Mexico; Aggies are getting to foul line better than anyone in US right now. Central Michigan beat Pepperdine by 10, after losing to Charlotte in double OT; Chippewas lost three starters from LY's 10-21 team. Central is one of worst rebounding teams in country right now.

Cal-Irvine is off to 0-3 start, losing by 21 at Cal, 1 at San Jose, by 8 at home to Weber State; Anteaters two starters back from LY's 13-19 club in Turner's first year as coach. Southern Mississippi split pair of games in Colorado on way to Alaska, but those were first game Southern Miss played vs D-I teams. Conference USA road favorites are 1-5 vs spread.

**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 09:28 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

-- Chiefs picked up Kyle Orton to replace Matt Cassel, who broke his thumb against Denver; Chief-Bronco rematch is in Week 17.

-- Campbell Camels 77, Iowa 61. Wednesday is Hump Day and all, but still, this score is hard to figure.

-- UCLA loses to Michigan by 16, is now 0-4 vs D-I teams, with all the losses by 10+ points. Its shocking how bad they are.

-- Duke outlasted Kansas 68-61 in finals of Maui Classic. Curious to see which team inproves more between now and March.

-- Sounds like Urban Meyer is signing with Ohio State for seven years and $40M; is he college football's version of Larry Brown, changing jobs all the time? He hasn't stayed anywhere for any length of time.

-- Just when you thought this world couldn't get any stranger, a drum major in Florida A&M's band died in a suspected hazing incident that got the band director of 39 years fired. What next?

*******************

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Some food for thought on Thanksgiving

13) Most underrated statistic in the NFL might be 3/out’s; how many you force, and whether your offense can stay on the field and improve field position while giving your defense a rest……top five teams for least amount of 3/outs thru 10 games:

Packers 21, Cowboys/Saints/Eagles, all 22, Patriots 24. Of those five teams, only the Eagles aren’t currently a playoff team.

12) As for four teams that force the most 3/outs, indicating a dominant defense, we give you: Bengals 54, Lions 49, 49ers/Jets 45. The three surprise success stories in the league plus the Jets, whose offense has struggled in their 5-5 season.

11) Teams that don’t force lot of 3/outs are either just bad defenses or put their teams in bad field position; Bears 24, Vikings 25, Rams/Patriots/ Titans 26. Chicago forces lot of turnovers, Patriots are just outscoring people, while the Rams/Vikings are just awful. Tennessee is a curious team that is 5-5 despite being minus-9 in 3/outs; four of their five wins are by 13+ points.

10) I call drives that start 80+ yards from the end zone “black zone” drives, meaning its hard for the offense to score on these drives. Texan foes have started 56 drives 80+ yards from the goal line and scored only 30 points (0.54 points/drive)—the next best teams in that category are Seattle (0.62), the 49ers (0.91) and Miami (0.97). If Matt Leinart can be just be competent under center, Houston can still make some noise the rest of the season. Wade Phillips has done a great job with their defense.

9) I don’t want to say the Chiefs have regressed on offens—well actually, that’s exactly what I want to say. In their first five games, Kansas City had 32 drives start 80+ yards from paydirt and scored a respectable 40 points on those 32 drives. In their last five games, Chiefs have also had 32 “black zone” drives, but managed just one field goal out of 32 drives. That’s terrible.

8) Miami has scored ten offensive TD’s in their last three games; five of the ten drives started in enemy territory. Miami opponents have started nine drives in Dolphin territory this season, but scored only one TD and four FG’s. Miami has started winning games because the defense has been creating easier opportunities for the offense to score.

7) In their first eight games, Seattle started five drives in enemy territory, scoring two TD’s, two FG’s on those five drives. In their last two games, Seahawks started nine drives in enemy territory, scoring three TD’s, four FG’s, which is why they won both games outright as underdogs.

6) Peyton Manning’s injury has been crippling, but its not the only reason the Colts are awful. Hard to believe the Indy has started only two drives in 10 games in enemy territory; that’s 110 drives. Even more surprising might be San Diego only starting five of 105 drives on the plus side of the field. That’s a big part of why both teams are struggling.

5) What teams are most efficient once they get inside the opponents’ 20-yard line? Tennessee (5.64 points/drive) leads the NFL, but only four teams have been inside the redzone fewer times than the titans. Next best are Green Bay (5.49), Chicago (5.26), New England (5.24) and the Lions (5.08). All playoff teams, except for the Titans.

4) What teams are worst inside the red zone? The Bucs (3.82 points/ drive), Colts (3.86), Rams (3.95), Chiefs (4.04) and Redskins (4.07). Not much ‘splainin’ needs to be done with that motley group.

3) I like to measure offenses by whether they can drive the ball 80+ yards and score; can they turn bad field position into points, in other words, can they carry their own weight, or are they dependent on the defense/special teams giving them a short field?

Best NFL teams on drives that start 80+ yards from goal line are: Packers (3.15), Patriots (2.25), Texans (2.24), Saints (2.11) and oddly enough, Carolina (2.05). Panthers have NFL’s worst defense in this category, which explains both their record and fact that they’re fun to watch play.

2) NFL’s worst offenses on drives starting 80+ yards from end zone are: Rams (0.55), Chiefs (0.67), Seattle (0.77), Colts (0.80), Vikings (0.96). As far as the Rams are concerned, my only comment is that Jeff Fisher is unemployed and Norv Turner could be soon; they’d make a fine coaching tandem next season.

1) Teams that win play on shorter fields than their opponents. San Francisco has started 24 drives in enemy territory, their opponents only six (+18). Next best teams in this category are all good: Bengals (+12), Packers (+8), Texans (+7), Raiders (+6). Forcing mistakes wins games, as does avoiding them.

**Udog** · 11-24-2011, 09:32 AM

Guys,

All that's missing is the short sheet for hoops. That source may or may not come through today but I'll watch for them.

Everybody have a great Thanksgiving! I plan to eat until my family gets embarrassed and throws me out!

**Spark** · 11-24-2011, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by Udog View Post

Guys,

Everybody have a great Thanksgiving! I plan to eat until my family gets embarrassed and throws me out!

Happy Thanksgiving dog ... Hope you have a great holiday buddy!!! Thanks for all the help

**StarDust Bum** · 11-24-2011, 12:19 PM

Happy Thanksgiving Dog...........

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Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 11/24 (NCAAB, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

Thursday's Trends and Indexes - 11/24 (NCAAB, NHL, CFL, Misc.)

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