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**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:46 PM

NFL odds: Week 12 opening line report

Ah, Thanksgiving football. So many unforgettable moments, so many thrilling finishes.

Can’t wait for my annual touch football game in the park.

The NFL, on the other hand, gives us games as competitive as the slaughterhouse vs. the turkey.

Remember those classics in 2008? We got 10-1 Tennessee whacking winless Detroit 47-10, Dallas pounding Seattle 34-9, and Philly blasting Arizona 48-20.

Three games decided by an average of 30 points.

Perhaps that’s why Thursday’s lineup is so refreshing:

Green Bay at Detroit (6, 55), Miami at Dallas (-7, 44.5), San Francisco at Baltimore (-3.5, 38.5)

Of course, the problem with previous Thanksgivings started with the Lions, who haven’t had a winning record since 2000. Between that “celebrated” 9-7 season and this year, they went 39-121 (.244 winning percentage). Think about that the next time you hear Matt Millen bloviate.

The Lions have played on the holiday every year since 1934. Why is a long story that will only frustrate NFL fans sentenced to watch them.

With two exceptions, the Cowboys have played on Thanksgiving every year since 1966.

In 2006, the league added a night game for NFL Network.

We were due for a blockbuster slate of games like this.

“This is the best trio of games on Thanksgiving that I can remember,” said Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sports analyst at Caesars Palace. “We’ve got an undefeated team to start the day, an intriguing game between suddenly resurgent Miami and Dallas, and the best game of the day, an intersectional showdown between brothers coaching teams who could be the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in their respective conferences.”

Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker for Lucky’s sportsbook, said the 7-3 Lions are the biggest factor in reviving the Thanksgiving schedule.

“There was a very long stretch where they were non-existent,” he said. “Now they’re only a 6-point dog to the Packers, and the unbeaten season is on the line."

Green Bay failed to cover as a 14-point home favorite on Sunday, beating Tampa Bay 35-26. The Lions exploded for 49 points to cover against the Panthers.

“I anticipated this line being a little higher but the public saw the Packers struggle Sunday,” Fuhrman said. “We’re still going to need Detroit in that game, just like last year when they ran out of gas against the Patriots.”

The Lions also went off as 6-point dogs in that game, losing 45-24 after leading 17-10 at halftime.

Miami goes to Dallas on an ATS tear. The Dolphins have covered four straight by an average of 15-plus points.

The Cowboys, who survived in overtime at Washington on Sunday, are just 3-8 ATS as home favorites since last year.

Not surprisingly, some offshores are listing Dallas at -6.5.

The 49ers keep making betting history. They’re 9-0-1 ATS, the longest unbeaten ATS streak to start a season, after handling Arizona 23-7 as 10-point favorites.

“The 49ers haven’t been slowed down by cross-country travel and their defense keeps them in every game,” Fuhrman said, adding that he expects this game to close at -3.

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (10, 40), Minnesota at Atlanta (-9, 44), Cleveland at Cincinnati (-9, 37.5), Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-9, 43)

Adrian Peterson’s high left ankle sprain likely will keep him out Sunday. Many books have taken Vikes-Falcons down until his status is clarified.

Bills running back Fred Jackson has a very sore calf, but expects to play at the Jets. Regardless, New York has won and covered four straight against Buffalo, outscoring the Bills 122-45.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Chicago at Oakland (1, 45.5), Arizona at St. Louis (-3, 40)

The Bears opened as 1-point faves but the lined quickly moved (Oakland -3.5) once word broke about Jay Cutler’s injury. Chicago’s Caleb Hanie has thrown only 14 regular-season passes. But he has a big arm, and he moved the team in the NFC Championship Game loss to Green Bay.

The Cardinals figure to start scattershot John Skelton again with Kevin Kolb (toe, foot) still hurting.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Detroit (6, 55.5)

The teams combined for 84 points on Sunday. Both have posted 7-3 O/U marks this season.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Washington at Seattle (-4, 36.5), Cleveland at Cincinnati (-9, 37.5), Houston at Jacksonville (3.5, 37.5)

Under coach Pete Carroll, the over is 9-3-1 in Seattle’s home games and 13-6-1 in NFC games.

The Bengals are better offensively than many think. They average 23.6 points, tied for 12th with the Chargers, and have posted an 8-2 O/U mark. Despite the Browns’ impotence, they’ve managed a 4-6 O/U mark.

The Texans-Jaguars total would be higher if Matt Schaub were playing. Houston will go even more run-heavier than normal so as not to expose Matt Leinart in his first start since 2009.

**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:46 PM

NFL Week 11 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

Les Miles is in a fortunate situation. He can get away with stupid clock decisions because 90 percent of the time LSU is the superior team on the field.

Jack Del Rio cannot. That thin sheet of ice supporting his backside has been melting for years.

And after Sunday’s clock calamity, Del Rio should be fired at season’s end.

With about 30 seconds left, MJD razed a few defenders on his way to a first down at the 2-yard line. Instead of using his last timeout, Del Rio let the offense slowly reset and then it ran the ball again. He called the final timeout with eight seconds left.

The hamster upstairs froze. There was no reason to not call a timeout after the first down.

By letting the clock churn and lining up for another play the Browns had to know they were going to give MJD the ball. I sure as hell did. Why else would Jacksonville save the timeout?

If Del Rio had stopped the clock initially the Jags could have gotten off three end zone passes. And if none of those connected, then let the human bowling ball do his thing on the final play. But by using the timeout when he did the Jags got three final plays instead of four.

And I wouldn’t even have to rant about this shit if Jason Hill could catch a ball that hit him the numbers. You’re a professional wide receiver and you haven’t earned enough stripes in this league to drop game winners.

But Del Rio is to blame. Jack will probably do pretty well at the collegiate level. You can get away with foolishness and mediocrity down there.

Blind mice in stripes

It's a good thing I get to vent about the worst call every week. It really helps me sleep on Sunday night.

In case you couldn’t tell, I played the Jags this week. Maybe it was the right side, maybe it was the wrong side, that’s up for debate. But what I do know is that a retard review by the officials didn’t help my cause.

Cleveland was in the red zone and Dawan Landry was flagged for pass interference. Del Rio actually made a smart decision this time and challenged that the ball was tipped at the line of scrimmage, which would have negated the penalty.

Replays clearly showed that one of the Jags got a hand on the pass. But somehow Terry McAulay upheld the ruling, giving the Browns the ball at the 1-yard line. Chris Ogbonnaya waltzed into the end zone on the next play.

I still don’t understand why the head official reviews plays. He can’t be unbiased in that process. Officiating teams are graded on their calls so why wouldn’t the head guy lean toward his colleague’s call being the right one?

The NCAA has it right. The on-field ref shouldn’t be making decisions under the hood anymore. He needs to put on a headset and wait for an independent booth official to call down whether a play stands or not.

And that’s just a small step needed in the necessary process of overhauling the NFL’s officiating system.

Devin defines ridiculous

Saying you can’t punt to Devin Hester has become cliché. But actually doing it has not.

Coaches and punters should be fined if Hester fields anything but a fair catch. I mean, how do these teams keep giving him chances? Maybe they’re trying to kick away but aren’t executing. Or maybe they’re just too stubborn. It’s inexplicable.

Back in my Week 6 blog, I said Hester would return a kick for a score against the Vikes. He did and it helped me cash my bet, but it’s not like I was really going out on a limb with that prediction.

I figure his prop odds for a special teams touchie would be +250 for any given game, and I wouldn’t ever bet against it. Last year in the NFC Championship he was +175 to take a kick to the house.

How many wins does this guy mean for the Bears? He makes such a difference in the third phase each and every week.

And the real question: Should Hester enter the Hall one day?

If I had a vote he’d be a first-ballot guy. He is the best to ever play the unheralded return man position.

Harbowl I

There isn’t a Week 12 game that I’m leaning toward right now. That’s probably a good thing with the upcoming holiday distractions.

This will be my last edition of the ordinary bettor. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading them as much as I’ve enjoyed writing them. I’ll still have the Covers blog each week so watch out for that. And you can also follow me on Twitter where I post all of my ordinary plays.

Have a happy Turkey Day everyone. Don’t fall asleep after the feasting because you don’t want to miss the inaugural Harbowl.

NFL Record: 32-20-2, +9.23 units

**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:48 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24

Game 103-104: Green Bay at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 142.645; Detroit 135.889
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 7; 51
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 6; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-6); Under

Game 105-106: Miami at Dallas (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.357; Dallas 139.157
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Over

Game 107-108: San Francisco at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 136.059; Baltimore 140.109
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 35
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 27

Game 215-216: Arizona at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 126.762; St. Louis 124.145
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); N/A

Game 217-218: Buffalo at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 131.763; NY Jets 133.714
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 2; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under

Game 219-220: Cleveland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.494; Cincinnati 137.464
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 13; 40
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Over

Game 221-222: Houston at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 137.093; Jacksonville 131.959
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over

Game 223-224: Carolina at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 122.722; Indianapolis 121.771
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Tampa Bay at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 129.860; Tennessee 130.568
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3 1/2); Under

Game 227-228: Minnesota at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 124.530; Atlanta 138.469
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 14; 48
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Over

Game 229-230: Chicago at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 128.125; Oakland 134.309
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6; 39
Vegas Line: Oakland by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-4 1/2); Under

Game 231-232: Washington at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 124.176; Seattle 126.599
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4); Over

Game 233-234: New England at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.340; Philadelphia 135.662
Dunkel Line: New England by 6 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 3; No Total
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); N/A

Game 235-236: Denver at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.699; San Diego 134.644
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 38
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6); Under

Game 237-238: Pittsburgh at Kansas City (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 137.963; Kansas City 126.060
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 37
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 40
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28

Game 239-240: NY Giants at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.645; New Orleans 138.913
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Over

**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:49 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

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Thursday, November 24

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GREEN BAY (10 - 0) at DETROIT (7 - 3) - 11/24/2011, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (3 - 7) at DALLAS (6 - 4) - 11/24/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (9 - 1) at BALTIMORE (7 - 3) - 11/24/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, November 27

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ARIZONA (3 - 7) at ST LOUIS (2 - 8) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at NY JETS (5 - 5) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 6) at CINCINNATI (6 - 4) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 7) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (2 - 8) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 10) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 6) at TENNESSEE (5 - 5) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 8) at ATLANTA (6 - 4) - 11/27/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (7 - 3) at OAKLAND (6 - 4) - 11/27/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 7) at SEATTLE (4 - 6) - 11/27/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 49-77 ATS (-35.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 20-41 ATS (-25.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 6) - 11/27/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (5 - 5) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) - 11/27/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 37-66 ATS (-35.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 4-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 6) - 11/27/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 86-54 ATS (+26.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 28

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NY GIANTS (6 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 3) - 11/28/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:50 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, 11/24/2011

GREEN BAY at DETROIT, 12:30 PM ET FOX
GREEN BAY: 8-1 Under as road favorite of 7 pts or less
DETROIT: 8-0 ATS off BB Overs

MIAMI at DALLAS, 4:15 PM ET CBS
MIAMI: 9-1 Under this season
DALLAS: 3-12 ATS as favorite

SAN FRANCISCO at BALTIMORE, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
SAN FRANCISCO: 9-0-1 ATS this season
BALTIMORE: 7-0 Over when playing w/ 6 or less days rest

Sunday, 11/27/2011

ARIZONA at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
ARIZONA: 6-0 Over after game w/ TO margin of -2 or worse
ST LOUIS: 9-26 ATS with same season revenge

BUFFALO at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 0-7 ATS off division game
NY JETS: 8-0 Over off an Under

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under last six games
CINCINNATI: 1-9 ATS as home favorite

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 7-1 Under vs. conference
JACKSONVILLE: 9-1 Under in all games

CAROLINA at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 11-2 Under as favorite
INDIANAPOLIS: 0-7 ATS vs. team w/ losing record

TAMPA BAY at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 9-2 ATS as road underdog
TENNESSEE: 19-8 ATS as home favorite of 3 pts or less

MINNESOTA at ATLANTA, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 10-3 Under Away if the total is between 42.5 and 49
ATLANTA: 3-19 ATS at home off home win

CHICAGO at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
CHICAGO: 16-4 ATS vs. AFC West
OAKLAND: 12-28 ATS as home dog of 7 pts or less

WASHINGTON at SEATTLE, 4:05 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 33-15 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
SEATTLE: 2-11 ATS off SU dog win by 14+ points

NEW ENGLAND at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: n/a
PHILADELPHIA: 5-1 ATS off division road win

DENVER at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
DENVER: 8-1 Over off an Under
SAN DIEGO: 2-8 ATS this season

PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PITTSBURGH: 2-10 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points
KANSAS CITY: n/a

Monday, 11/28/2011

NY GIANTS at NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
NY GIANTS: 22-9 Over vs. conference
NEW ORLEANS: 0-6 ATS off road win by 3 pts or less

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:51 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Packers (10-0) @ Lions (7-3)—Green Bay won 10 of last 11 series games, winning four of last five here, losing 7-3 LY in game Rodgers missed; Pack is 5-0 on road, 3-2 as road favorite, scoring 25+ points in all five games (15 TDs/50 drives), with wins on foreign soil by 7-10-11-6-7 points. Detroit had lost three of last four games and trailed Carolina 24-7 at home last week, before finishing game on 42-11 run; they’ve scored 24+ points in all seven wins this year, 19-16-13 in its three losses- they’re 2-1 as underdog. In last four games, Packers scored TD’s on opening drive, going 91-63-70-88 yards. Six of last eight series totals were 46+; last four Packer games, last three Detroit games all went over the total.

Dolphins (3-7) @ Cowboys (6-4)—Resurgent Miami won last three games after 0-7 start, allowing no TD’s on last 32 drives; Dolphins are 1-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 1-10-18-3 points, so only twice in five road games have they lost by more than a FG. Cowboys won last three games, are now tied atop NFC East; they’re 4-1 at home, 2-3 as home faves, winning by 2-27-10-37 points, with only loss to Detroit, when offense self-destructed. Road team won six of last seven series games, with Fish winning four of last five visits here. Under is 8-0-1 in last nine Miami games. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-8 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 5-3.

49ers (9-1) @ Ravens (7-3)—First time in NFL history brothers oppose each other as head coaches; long trip east on short week for red-hot 49ers, who won/covered last eight games, already winning four games in eastern time zone. Niners are 3-0-1 as underdogs this year; only loss was by 3 in OT to Dallas in Week 2. Raven defense has outscored opposing offense 7-0 on opening drives this year, allowing average of just 10.3 yards/drive, but defense allowed Bengals 483 yards last week with leader Lewis inactive. Baltimore is 3-1-1 as home favorite, wining at home by 28-17-15-3-7 points. Niners lost 44-7 in ’03, in only previous visit to this stadium. Four of last five 49ers games stayed under; seven of ten Raven games went over.

Cardinals (3-7) @ Rams (2-8)—Hard to believe St Louis is favored; way their offense is playing, they shouldn’t be favored over a CFL team. In last three games, St Louis has two TD’s on 39 drives, converting 12 of 41 on 3rd down. Arizona won first meeting 19-13 in OT on Peterson’s 95-yard punt return TD in OT; Cardinals won via special teams, blocking 42-yard FG on last play of regulation that would’ve won game. Rams outgained Arizona 383-262 that day, but still lost for ninth time in last ten series meetings. Redbirds won their last six visits here, but are 1-5 on road this year, 3-2 as road dog. Last three Arizona games, six of last seven St Louis tilts stayed under total. Remember, bad teams don’t have nearly as much home field advantage.

Bills (5-5) @ Jets (5-5)—Two teams desperate for win; mouthy Jets lost to Patriots/Broncos last two weeks, scoring three TD’s on 24 drives. Home fans will turn on them here if they start slowly. Buffalo is on road third week in row, losing 44-7/35-8 last two weeks; Bills turned ball over 13 times (-9) in last five games- they have no takeaways in last two games. Last four Buffalo TD drives were all 80 yards long; defense/special teams not setting up short field. Hard to drive 80 yards on Jets. Jets won four in row, six of last seven series games, taking last three by combined score of 102-32; they won first meeting this year 27-11 (+2) three weeks ago (was 3-0 at half). Jets had three extra days to prep for this after loss in Denver.

Browns (4-6) @ Bengals (6-4)—Cincinnati won 11 of last 14 series games, including 27-17 (+6.5) upset in season opener, but teams split season series in three of last four years; Browns lost six of last seven visits here, losing by 10-3-17-5-9-2 points. Cleveland is only team not to score point on opening drive of game this year; they’ve gained only 86 yards on 38 plays, an average of 8.6 yards/drive, not good game-planning; overall, they’ve been outscored 36-6 on first drive of a half, while Bengals have 40-34 edge in their games. Cincy is 2-1 as a favorite this season; Browns are 0-3 as road dog, losing by 7-10-18 points. Five of last six Cleveland games, three of last four Bengal home games stayed under total.

Texans (7-3) @ Jaguars (3-7)—Backup QB Leinart steps in spotlight as new starter with Schaub out (foot); before Schaub’s in jury, Texans were on serious roll, winning/covering four games in row- they scored TD on opening drive in six of last eight games. Home team won eight of last nine series games- Texans lost last four visits here, by 20-3-5-7 points. Houston also lost five of last six post-bye games. Jaguars allowed 14 or less points in their three wins; they’re 0-6 allowing more than 14, 2-2 SU at home. Jags scored only six TD’s on last 52 drives, and scored more than 27 points in only one game; they’re 2-4 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. Under is 7-3 in Houston games this season, 9-1 in Jaguar games.

Panthers (2-8) @ Colts (0-10)—Indy’s best remaining chance to win a game, and it wouldn’t even cost them #1 pick in draft, since everyone else has 2+ wins. Colts are 0-6 vs spread in last six games, losing last four by combined score of 137-27, outscored 59-10 in second half. Only two of ten Indy losses are by less than seven points. Carolina lost three in row, six of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, allowing average of 35.5 ppg, hardly a rock-solid favorite. Home team lost three of four series games, with Panthers winning previous two visits here, in ‘98/’03. AFC South underdogs are 6-12-1 vs spread, 2-3 at home. Three of four Carolina road games went over total; Colts’ last three games stayed under.

Buccaneers (4-6) @ Titans (5-5)—Slumping Tampa Bay lost last four games, allowing 30.8 ppg; they’ve given up 13 TD’s on just 31 drives in last three games. Underdogs are 7-2-1 vs spread in Titan games this year; Tennessee is 1-3 as home favorite, 3-2 SU at home, with wins by 13-3-17 points. Home side won eight of nine series games; Bucs are 0-6 at Oilers/Titans, losing 31-28/33-13 in two visits here, last of which was in 2003. Bucs have been outscored 55-22 on first drives of a half this year, 27-3 on opening drive of game, so they’re getting out game-planned by opponents. AFC South home favorites are 2-5 in non-divisional home games; NFC south road teams are 6-8 vs spread on road, 4-5 as road dogs.

Vikings (2-8) @ Falcons (6-4)—Peterson’s injury puts onus on Minnesota passing game, bad thing for rookie QB on foreign soil. Over last three games, Minnesota has been outgained 225-31 on first drive of a half; Atlanta has four TD’s/FG on first drive of its last six halves, so one coaching staff is preparing better, making better halftime adjustments. Vikings are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 7-5-29-38 points. Falcons won four of last five games, but they’re just 1-3-1 as favorite this year, with home wins by 4-14-6, and losses to Packers/Saints. Vikings won four of last five visits here, but haven’t been here since ’05. Last six Atlanta games stayed under total; four of last five Viking games went over.

Bears (7-3) @ Raiders (6-4)—Caleb Hanie steps into spotlight as Chicago starter, replacing injured Cutler (thumb), but he will play well; no one coaches up backup QB’s better than Mike Martz, maybe because it makes him simplify things. Chicago won/covered last five games, scoring 32.2 ppg (14 TD’s/57 drives)- they’re 6-1 outdoors this year, with losses coming at Saints/Lions. Oakland scored 24-24-27 points in three games since its bye, which gave Palmer time to get game-ready; Raiders also have 11 sacks, seven takeaways in last two games. Only Sunday matchup this week between teams with winning records. Four of last five Chicago games went over; five of last seven Oakland games stayed under.

Redskins (3-7) @ Seahawks (4-6)—Odd series where Redskins won last five regular season meetings, but lost to Seattle twice in playoffs during that span. Skidding Skins are 0-6 (1-5 vs spread) since their bye, not scoring a TD in last two road games (20 drives); they’re 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-13-23-11 points, and only win at woeful Rams. Seattle won its last two games, allowing two TD’s on 24 drives, with six takeaways; Seahawks are favored for first time this year- they’re 2-2 at home, with three of four games decided by five or less points. NFC East underdogs are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of last nine Washington games, four of last five Seattle games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Eagles (4-6)—Think about how banged up Patriot secondary is, and think about if Jackson/Maclin both play here; how will Patriots stop them? They had a freakin’ QB-turned-WR (Edelman) playing DB last two games, but they continue to win, scoring 37-34 points in last two games (outscored last two foes 48-7 in second half). Patriots allowed 34-25-24 points in their three losses; they’re 6-0 (5-1 vs spread) allowing less than 24. New England won last three series games by 21-3-3 points, one of which was a Super Bowl; they’re 1-5 in six visits here, winning 31-10 in last visit eight years ago. Both teams have gone under total in four of last five games. Eagles were dog for first time last week.

Broncos (5-5) @ Chargers (4-6)—Denver is 4-1 with Tebow as starting QB, winning three road games; Broncos have run ball for 209 ypg in those five games, which eats clock and takes pressure off their defense, which allowed 418 yards in 29-24 Week 5 home loss to Chargers, San Diego’s ninth win in last 11 series games, but also last game Orton started. San Diego lost last five games overall, turning ball over 14 times (-5); they’re 3-0 when allowing 17 or less points, but that hasn’t happened since Week 4, as mistakes are creating short field for opponents—of Bears’ four TDs last week, three came on drives of 44 or less yards. Chargers have only run ball for 70.7 ypg the last three weeks. Under is 3-1-1 in San Diego home games.

Steelers (7-3) @ Chiefs (4-6)— Four of Chiefs’ six losses are by 28+ points; with journeyman QB Palko now starting QB, doesn’t bode well for Haley’s job security. His team figures to get pounded here by Steelers, team Haley’s dad worked for when he was a kid. Roethlisberger hurt his thumb in pre-bye game, so he’s not 100%; Steelers are 5-2 in last seven post-bye games, winning last three by scores of 38-10/28-10/28-10. Chiefs fell apart in second half of loss in Foxboro Monday night, their third straight loss by combined score of 82-16. Home side won four of last five series games, with Steelers losing three of last four visits here (win in ’01). Seven of last eight Kansas City games stayed under the total.

Giants (6-4) @ Saints (7-3)— Saints won last two post-bye games 48-27/34-19; they’re 4-0 as home favorites this year, winning by average score of 40-17. Giants are 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards, 2-4 when they don’t; they’ve run ball for average of 72.8 ypg in four post-bye games. Saints held only one of last eight opponents under 100 rushing yards (Bucs had 84) so chance for Giants to control ball on ground here in Eli’s second homecoming to Crescent City. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Giants losing last three here, last two by 45-7/48-27 scores; last time Giants won here was in ’93. Giants lost last two games, with three TD’s, 10 3/outs on their last 22 drives.

**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 06:57 PM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 24

12:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
Green Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
MIAMI vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Dallas's last 23 games
Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Sunday, November 27

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ATLANTA
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of the NY Jets last 16 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Arizona is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. TENNESSEE
Tampa Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. JACKSONVILLE
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games at home

4:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. SEATTLE
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Seattle's last 21 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. PHILADELPHIA
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing San Diego
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

Monday, November 28

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. NEW ORLEANS
NY Giants are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 07:01 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 24

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NFL Thanksgiving Day action: What bettors need to know
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6, 55.5)

THE STORY: The Green Bay Packers have seemingly been on cruise control ever since they won the Super Bowl. With an unblemished record after 10 games this season and a franchise-best 16 consecutive wins overall dating to last season, Aaron Rodgers and Co. have resembled a runaway locomotive as they've run roughshod over the league. Despite their considerable accomplishments, the Packers will ride into the Motor City for their Thanksgiving Day matinee against the NFC North rival Detroit Lions with an uneasy feeling. Why, you ask? Well, this situation played itself out nearly a half-century ago – with the 1962 Lions putting an emphatic stop to the Packers' plans for an undefeated season with a 26-14 triumph. Back to the present, the Lions have amassed at least 45 points in two of their last three games, showing that they have the firepower to keep up with the high-octane Packers.

TV: FOX, 12:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (10-0): Rodgers (3,168 yards, 31 TDs) is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 3,100-plus passing yards and 30-plus TDs in the first 10 games of a season. He has thrown for at least two scores in every contest this campaign. Although WR Greg Jennings exited last week's 35-26 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a knee injury, fellow wideout Jordy Nelson continued his solid play by scoring twice. Nelson now has five TDs in his last three games, but will face Detroit's stingy passing defense that allows an NFL fifth-best 192.8 passing yards per game.

ABOUT THE LIONS (7-3): Running back Kevin Smith is making the most of his second chance. After being reduced to second fiddle behind Jahvid Best – and then eventually unemployed – Smith returned with a vengeance by rushing for 140 yards and amassing a career-high three touchdowns in last week's 49-35 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Quarterback Matthew Stafford showed no ill effects of a fractured index finger last week, tossing a team record-tying five touchdowns and amassing a franchise-best 121.9 passer rating. Stafford could have a field day against the Packers' 31st-ranked pass defense (289.3 yards per game).

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Although it is a staple on Thanksgiving, Detroit hasn't emerged victorious on the holiday since it defeated Green Bay in 2003. The Packers bested the Lions on Turkey Day in both 2007 and 2009.

2. Green Bay RB James Starks (knee sprain, ankle) and Jennings (knee) were limited in Tuesday's practice, but are both expected to play versus the Lions.

3. While the accomplishment in 1962 is nice, Detroit can also look to a more recent event for success against Green Bay. The Lions posted a 7-3 win over the Packers at Ford Field on Dec. 12, 2010. It should be noted that Rodgers was knocked out of the contest with a concussion during the second quarter.

LINE MOVEMENT:

Not much to report on this game on the short week. Some shops opened as low as +5.5 while others are using +6.5. Every sportsbook in Nevada and offshore has this one under a touchdown spread with +6 seen as the most common number being dealt.

Maybe the most surprising adjustment was the bump on the total. The over/under line opened at 55.5 – about as high of a total you’ll see for an NFL game – and has been bet up to 56.5 at a few places.

TRENDS:

The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Lions are 6-1 in their last seven games as underdogs and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.

The over is 16-6-1 in Detroit’s last 23 games overall and 4-0 in Green Bay’s last four games.

PREDICTION: Packers 38, Lions 28. Stafford and stud wideout Calvin Johnson will give the home fans a show, but Rodgers and Jennings will keep Green Bay on its path for an undefeated season.

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 44)

THE STORY: Miami Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore never got a chance to make an impact in his brief stint with the Dallas Cowboys. A fellow undrafted free agent by the name of Tony Romo was playing pretty well at the time. Four years later, Moore’s doing his best to secure a permanent starting job – just as Romo did with the Cowboys. Moore will try to lead the resurgent Miami Dolphins to a fourth straight win against Romo and the first-place Cowboys in a Thanksgiving Day matchup that suddenly has much more intrigue. Dallas, which has won three straight for the first time since 2009 to move into a tie for first in the NFC East, is 27-15-1 on Thanksgiving.

TV: CBS, 4:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-7): Miami has outscored opponents 86-20 during the team’s first three-game winning streak since 2008. The Dolphins were one of the front-runners in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes before Moore and the defense caught fire. Moore (160 yards, 3 TDs in a 35-8 win over Buffalo) has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in that span. Meanwhile, the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown this month. Miami has allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL (3) and ranks sixth in the league in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). RB Reggie Bush has also come on strong, rushing for 274 yards and four touchdowns in the last four games.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-4): Dallas eked out its third straight win, 27-24 over Washington as rookie Dan Bailey booted a 39-yard field goal in overtime. Romo was at his best, eluding the rush while throwing for 292 yards and three touchdowns. He has thrown for 841 yards with eight touchdowns and, more importantly, zero interceptions in the last three games. Romo is 18-2 in November and 12-0 at home during the month. Dallas needed him more on a day when rookie RB DeMarco Murray was held in check (23 carries, 75 yards) after rushing for 601 yards and four scores in the previous four games. WR Laurent Robinson has been outstanding while filling in for Miles Austin (hamstring), scoring five touchdowns in the last four games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Romo has been outstanding on Thanksgiving, completing 69 percent of his attempts (83 of 120) for 1,141 yards with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions in four starts. He sat out last season’s 30-27 defeat to New Orleans – a loss ended the Cowboys' four-game winning streak on Thanksgiving – with a broken collarbone.

2. Dallas tried to sneak Moore onto its practice squad during the 2007 preseason, but he was claimed by Carolina. He was 15 of 28 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception in a 20-13 loss to the Cowboys that season.

3. Bailey has made 24 straight field goals, three shy of the team record set by Chris Boniol in 1996.

LINE MOVEMENT:

Oddsmakers all thought Dallas -7 was the right line for this game and the bettors seem to agree. There’s been no movement on the line and the juice seems to be staying put at -110. The total has gone up from 44 to 44.5 at some locations but it’s also dropped back down to 44 at other shops.

TRENDS:

The Dolphins are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

The Cowboys are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games in November but 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.

The under is 8-0-1 in the Dolphins’ last nine games overall and 20-6 in their last 26 road games. The over, on the other hand, is 11-3 in Dallas’ last 14 home games and 17-6 in its last 23 games overall.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 17. Miami’s defense is playing well, but Romo usually shines in November, especially on Thanksgiving.

San Francisco 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 38.5)

THE STORY: When celebrating Thanksgiving, it’s always nice to have family around. Even if that family happens to be separated by 160 feet of football field at M&T Bank Stadium. San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will guide his team east to visit brother John Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The old adage is that teams win football games by running the ball and stopping the run. The 49ers are proving that remains true even in today’s pass-happy NFL. Winners of eight straight, San Francisco ranks first against the run and sixth in rushing. John Harbaugh has a similar philosophy, with the Ravens ranking sixth against the run, but prefers to air it out a bit more on offense. The 49ers can clinch at least a tie for the NFC West with a win Thursday while the Ravens are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (9-1): A San Francisco win and a Seattle loss to Washington on Sunday clinches the NFC West, though at this point the 49ers have loftier goals. Last Sunday’s 23-7 victory clinched the franchise’s first winning season since 2002 and marked the 32nd straight game in which San Francisco’s defense has held an opponent under 100 yards rushing. The 49ers lead the NFL with a plus-17 turnover margin.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-3): Baltimore bounced back from a loss at Seattle by earning a key division win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week. Joe Flacco continued his up-and-down season by posting a 105.5 rating after putting up a 67.4 in the Seattle loss. Running at the San Francisco defense will be Ray Rice, who went for 104 yards and two touchdowns last week to reach the century mark for the first time since Week 6.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. “It’s about football. I’m sure both of our focuses are going to be on the game and out teams.” – John Harbaugh, when asked if he and his brother would be taking some time out for turkey. “There’s really no time for anything else.”

2. 49ers tight end Vernon Davis passed Brent Jones for first in franchise history with his 34th touchdown last week.

3. Ravens LB Ray Lewis missed last week with a foot injury and is questionable for Thursday.

LINE MOVEMENT:

Oddsmakers all opened with the Ravens giving more than a field goal but bettors have brought the spread down to home-field line. Some shops had Baltimore as high as 5-point chalk but most opened either at -4 or -3.5. It still can be found at both -3 and -3.5 depending on the sportsbook.

The total was as high as 39.5 earlier this week but has been bet down to 38.5 pretty much across the board.

TRENDS:

It’s been said many times on this site but it bears repeating, San Fran is undefeated against the spread this season at 9-0-1.

The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.

The under is 4-1 in the Niners’ last five games overall while the over is 4-0 in the Baltimore’s last four games.

PREDICTION: 49ers 21, Ravens 10. San Francisco will stop the run and force Flacco into mistakes.

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**Udog** · 11-23-2011, 11:07 PM

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 12

Thanksgiving not only means gorging on food, but gorging on football as the NFL serves up a three-game feast Thursday along with a dozen more games Sunday and of course the Monday Nighter. To the Week 12 poolies cheat sheet we go:

Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit

Why Packers cover: Can anything negative be said about this team? They’ve won a whole season’s worth of games straight up – 16 in a row, including their run to the Super Bowl title. And they’ve been stout against the spread that entire time, going 12-4. The Lions are losers of seven in a row straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on Thanksgiving Day, including two double-digit defeats to Green Bay.

Why Lions cover: These aren’t the same Lions who annually get rolled by double digits while all of us pound turkey and stuffing. They’ve cashed 10 of their last 13 at home and six of seven as an underdog. Plus, they’re ridiculously resilient, coming from behind to win three times this year in games they’ve trailed by 17 or more points, including last week’s 49-35 home win over Carolina. This is a huge statement game for Detroit, and the team will be amped.

Total (55.5): That is a lot of points, but chew on this while waiting for the bird to finish cooking: Green Bay averages a league-leading 35.5 points per game while Detroit is close behind in third at 30.1. The game is indoors, so weather won’t hinder the offenses.

Miami at Dallas (-7)

Why Dolphins cover: By their standards, they are on fire, winning and covering three in a row after opening season 0-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS), with all three wins by 10 or more points. Miami is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 as road pup and Dallas is a meager 3-11-1 ATS in its last 15 when laying points.

Why Cowboys cover: They enjoy Thanksgiving spotlight, covering five in a row on Turkey Day (4-1 SU), and they’ve beaten the books in the last six Thursday contests. Dallas has also won its last three at home by double digits (2-1 ATS) and is 17-7 ATS last 24 in November.

Total (44): Something’s got to give here. Miami has the under on a major run including 8-0-1 overall, 7-0 catching points and 20-6 on highway. Dallas, meanwhile, is on over streaks of 20-6 overall, 11-3 at home and 6-1 in November.

San Francisco at Baltimore (-3.5)

Why 49ers cover: They’re the best in the NFL against the spread this season, having not lost a single contest against the number at 9-0-1 ATS. In fact, they’re on an eight-game SU and ATS firestorm heading into Baltimore for a clash of the Fabulous Coaching Harbaugh Brothers.

Why Ravens cover: John Harbaugh’s troops get up for quality opponents and tend to play down to lesser opponents. They’ve beaten defending AFC champ Steelers twice this season SU and ATS, drubbed the Jets and Texans, and were up 17 in the fourth quarter last week against Cincinnati before settling for a push as 7-point favorites.

Total (38.5): Two of the NFL’s best defenses are involved, with Niners allowing a league-low 14.5 ppg and Baltimore third at 17.6 ppg. Jim Harbaugh’s San Fran squad has held foes to 20 points or fewer in six straight outings. Oddly enough, despite Ravens’ solid defense, the over has hit in four straight.

Carolina (-3.5) at Indianapolis

Why Colts cover: Boy, you know you’ve hit rock bottom when you’re catching 3.5 points at home against a 2-8 team. But this might be the breakthrough week for Indianapolis (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS). Carolina on three-game SU and ATS slide and in 1-6 ATS rut on road. Indy 4-0 ATS last four off bye week.

Why Panthers cover: There’s a reason Cam Newton & Co. are laying 3.5 points – Indy is awful. Carolina has cashed six straight as road favorite (a role they haven’t been in since October 2009), and Colts on slew of pointspread purges, including 0-6 overall and 1-6 at home dome.

Total (45.5): Total has gone high six of last seven with Panthers a road favorite, and over 8-3-1 Colts’ last dozen off a SU loss.

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-9)

Why Bills cover: This is it for them. After starting out 4-1 SU, they’ve lost four of last five. If they harbor any playoff hopes, they need to not only cash, but win outright. And they’ve got further motivation, having been whipped at home by Jets 27-11 three weeks ago. Additionally, in this AFC East rivalry, the road team is on 7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has beaten the number in nine of last 12.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s squad is in a similar spot to Buffalo, desperately needing strong performance to reassert itself as playoff contender after back-to-back SU and ATS losses. The Jets have beaten Bills SU and ATS in each of the last four meetings.

Total (41.5): Buffalo has the over on an 8-2-1 run overall, 6-0-1 getting points and 5-0-1 on road. New York has the over on a 20-8 string overall, 8-3 off SU loss and 8-3 inside division.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-9)

Why Browns cover: Not much to say in favor of Cleveland, but road teams in this rivalry have covered in eight of the last nine. Cincy's in 3-13 ATS rut laying points at home.

Why Bengals cover: Cleveland can’t score. The Browns have put up 17 or fewer points in eight straight games, including 14 or fewer in last five outings. Conversely, Cincy has scored 23 or more in six of its last seven starts. The Bengals are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 while the Browns are 0-7 ATS as underdogs.

Total (37.5): Cleveland’s lackluster offense certainly points to the under, which is 5-1 in Browns’ last six. The under has also cashed in the last four Browns-Bengals affairs in Cincy. On flip side, Cincinnati is on 6-1 over surge.

Arizona at St. Louis (N/A)

Why Cardinals cover: Boy, this is one of those games where you want to take your parents’ advice – if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all. That said, in a meeting of lousy teams, Cards (3-1 ATS last four) are 6-2 ATS in their last eight against the Rams, who are on 2-9 ATS nosedive.

Why Rams cover: Despite the record, they’ve been better lately behind resurgent RB Steven Jackson, who had three straight games of 128 or more yards before last week’s letdown against Seattle. The Cards are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NFC West outings.

Total: St. Louis is averaging a league-worst 12 ppg, so looking low appears smart. The Cardinals have played under in six of seven and the last seven between the two clubs have ducked under the total.

Tampa Bay at Tennessee (-3.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: They're heartened by good showing at Green Bay last week, cashing as 14-point pup in 35-26 loss. This won't seem like as tough of a test. The Bucs are among best in league ATS on the road at 15-5-1 in their last 21 overall and 13-3 when catching points.

Why Titans cover: They’ve cashed in three of four, including last week at Atlanta and Mike Munchak’s unit is on a 6-1 ATS stretch when coming off a SU loss.

Total (43): The under has been the play in Tennessee’s last four games.

Houston (-3.5) at Jacksonville

Why Texans cover: Sure, they lost QB Matt Schaub, but they’ve got stud RB Arian Foster, who leads league’s second-best running attack (158.1 ypg). They should still be able to control the clock and sit fifth in the NFL at 27.3 ppg. Jacksonville's 31st at 12.5 ppg.

Why Jaguars cover: The home team is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in the last four of this AFC South rivalry.

Total (37.5): Jacksonville’s inability to score points, coupled with Houston’s desire to run ball makes under look good. The Jags sport under streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 when getting points.

Minnesota at Atlanta (-9.5)

Why Vikings cover: Not much to say in Minnesota’s defense – or about Minnesota’s defense (27.1 ppg, 30th). What Vikes do have going for them is Atlanta's on pair of 2-5 ATS skids, as a favorite and coming off SU win.

Why Falcons cover: Minnesota's defense has allowed 27 points or more in four of last five weeks, including 39 at Chicago and 33 and 45 in home and road losses to Green Bay. Minny may not have stud RB Adrian Peterson (ankle), which will allow Atlanta to put heat on Vikes rookie QB Christian Ponder. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against losing teams.

Total (44): The Falcons have the under on a 6-0 run overall, 5-0 off SU wins and 5-1-1 as home favorites.

Chicago at Oakland (-4.5)

Why Bears cover: They are among hottest teams in league at moment, beating opponents and pointspreads in five straight. In four of those games, they’ve piled up 30 or more points - thanks in large part to RB Matt Forte (926 rushing yards, 465 receiving yards).

Why Raiders cover: Chicago won’t have QB Jay Cutler (thumb) for several weeks, meaning the inexperienced Caleb Hanie will start for the Bears. And despite Oakland likely missing RB Darren McFadden again, Michael Bush (115 ypg last four) is more than serviceable. The Raiders own the third best rushing attack in the league 156.8 ypg and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11.

Total (41.5): Oakland has scored 24 or more points in seven of its last nine and Chicago has topped 24 in six of seven, including five games of 30 or more.

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)

Why Redskins cover: Well, they haven’t won a game since Week 4, so not much to say here. About all they can hope for is that Seahawks QB Tarvaris Jackson plays poorly, which is surely within Jackson’s capabilities.

Why Seahawks cover: As much as we rag on Jackson in this space, there's no denying Seattle is actually 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight overall, 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 12-4 in its last 16 when laying points at home.

Total (37.5): A fairly low number here, but perhaps merited by fact that ‘Skins average just 16.0 ppg (27th) with the Seahawks only a tick better at 16.8 ppg (26th). Washington has played under in seven of its last nine and five of six on the road. However, the over is 8-2 in Seattle's last 10 at home and 15-6 in its last 21 overall.

Denver at San Diego (-6.5)

Why Broncos cover: Haven’t you heard? The miraculous Tim Tebow is the comeback king, helping Denver to a 4-1 SU and ATS mark since he's been under center. San Diego's in absolute tailspin, losing last five in a row SU and ATS.

Why Chargers cover: If Norv Turner wants to stay employed, the Bolts must win not only this week, but pretty much every game for the rest of season. Denver may be just the cure for Chargers, who have won eight of last 10 in this rivalry (7-1-2 ATS). The Broncos are 10-22-2 ATS in the last 34 matchups.

Total (43.5): Broncos have played over at a 22-9 clip in the last 31 overall, 21-8 last 29 against the AFC West), while Chargers play under at a 8-1 record in the last nine at home, 8-0 with Bolts as home favorites.

New England (-3) at Philadelphia:

Why Patriots cover: After a midseason stumble of two consecutive SU and ATS losses, the Pats posted SU and ATS routs of the Jets and Chiefs and now have legitimate shot at No. 1 seed in AFC. Bill Belichick’s troops have provided long-term ATS stability on road, going 47-23-3 ATS in their last 73. Philly is 1-7 ATS in its last eight at home.

Why Eagles cover: Desperation can be great motivator, as Eagles proved last week against the Giants behind backup QB Vince Young. Philly can’t afford to lose any more games. Quarterback Michael Vick (ribs) is not certain to play, but Young got the job done last week.

Total: The under has hit in four of five at home and six of eight overall for Philly. On the flip side, New England is on over runs of 21-8 overall and 10-4 on the highway.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City

Why Steelers cover: That’s a big number for a road team at Arrowhead, but K.C. has been awful lately, totaling just 16 points over three consecutive SU and ATS losses. The defending AFC champs, meanwhile, have won five of six (4-2 ATS) and own pair of 8-3 ATS streaks, as a favorite and against losing teams.

Why Chiefs cover: QB Tyler Palko can’t be much worse than last week (three INTs), as he replaces the injured Matt Cassel for rest of season. Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in the last six as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in the last five as a home pup. Pittsburgh is 6-15 ATS in the last 21 when laying more than 10, while the Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 when catching more than 10.

Total (39.5): Almost all trends point to the over for Pittsburgh and to the under for the Chiefs. But in this occasional rivalry, the total has gone over in five straight overall and four in a row at Arrowhead.

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-7)

Why Giants cover: They’ve dumped two in a row SU and ATS and need to get the ship righted to keep NFC East hopes on track. Tom Coughlin’s squad likes the Monday night spotlight (4-0 ATS) and is a solid road bet (30-14 ATS in the last 44).

Why Saints cover: They’ve got home-dome advantage. New Orleans is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four at the Superdome and coming off the bye week, the Saints have had extra week to rest up for Giants. Home team favorites are 6-1 ATS in the last seven Giants-Saints affairs.

Total (50.5): Big number, but with Saints averaging 31.3 ppg (second), the over is always in play. The over has cashed in New Orleans’ last four off its bye week.

**Udog** · 11-25-2011, 09:28 AM

NFL

Week 12

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NFL Total Bias: Week 12's best over/under bets
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Every family has its own holiday quirks and traditions.

And most family members have defined roles. Dad cuts the turkey, Uncle Roy plays bartender, Suzy entertains the kids, whether it’s a spoken agreement or not.

It’s those roles that can make things interesting for outsiders. Think back to visiting an old girlfriend over the holidays – it always took a while to figure out where you fit in, making sure not to step on anyone’s toes.

Then again, once you knew how all the pieces of the puzzle fit together, that’s when the real fun began.

That got me thinking about how I would cast the roles if I was filming an NFL Thanksgiving celebration. Let’s break it down from the couch to the dining room table.

TV remote captain: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts

We might as well give Peyton something to do, though I’m sure he’d drive everyone crazy by constantly playing TV commercials he starred in three years ago. I’m still shocked the guy can’t even take a snap yet, but I guess that’s why stem cell surgery is still a bit of a wildcard.

That said, bet you dollars to donuts Peyton will have 20 touchdowns by this time next year – for somebody.

Thanksgiving bookie: Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears

Lovie put the pointspread on the bulletin board in Chicago’s locker room before the Bears went out and smacked the Chargers around a few weeks ago. He’s the guy I’m saddling up beside for the afternoon. You know he’s up for some random wagers on cheerleaders and NFL announcer drinking games.

The pottymouth: Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

Every holiday party has some inappropriate comments. Hey, it’s half the fun. And while you could peg pretty much anybody associated with the NFL in this role, my vote goes to the Evil Genius. Remember Belichick following the big win over Rex Ryan and the Jets? “Thirty-seven points on the best defense in the league, s—- my d—-!”

The clueless football blabbermouths: Jon Gruden

As a sports writer, there’s nothing I hate more than talking shop with some douche just because they have a man crush on my job. These are the guys you can chop at the knees without them even knowing it as they just go bobblehead on you while wearing a dumb grin. While Chucky has had his moments on the field, he’s getting creepier and more annoying in the booth every week. .

A couple recent Gruden gems:

“I’ve learned a lot of four and five syllable words from Jaworski. I don’t even know if they’re real words.”

“Watch him squirt through this hole and unload at contact.”

Head of the table: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Not only will Aaron Rodgers carve your damn defense, he’ll do a heck of a job on a turkey and bring his own cranberry sauce. He could wake up from his pre-dinner nap, chug three beers and still go 12-for-12 chucking dinner rolls around the table. And then he’d show you the belt.

Promoted from the kids’ table: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Cam!

The only people saying they believed in Cam all along are the lucky saps who scooped him up off waivers in their fantasy leagues. With only two outright wins, the Panthers have a way to go yet, but you have to like the 5-5 mark against the spread.

The Bible thumper: Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos

Of course, right?

My family doesn’t get down with saying grace or anything (thankfully), but I’m sure you could get a pile of clams from tebowing.com if you could snap a pic of all these ne’er do wells in the now-famous pose. Oh Tim, don’t ever change – for your sake.

Dance floor demon: Ray Lewis, Baltimore Ravens

Even with a bad toe, you’d best believe Ray Ray is going to break it down like nobody else when the party really gets going. Imagine what this crazy SOB would have done in a mosh pit 15 years ago.

The “under” achievers: Jacksonville Jaguars

Every holiday party has a classic deadbeat underachiever, or in this case, a whole team of them. Has anybody actually watched a full Jaguars game this season? If so, God help you. The only reason I check in on them occasionally is to check up on totals. They’ve played under in nine of 10 games this season.

Well, that was fun. Last week I somehow managed a spotless 3-0 record, so hopefully this week’s picks can keep giving. I'll even throw in an extra pick in the spirit of the season.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-6, 41.5)

The Tebow clock control offense worries me with this pick, but as bad as Philip Rivers and the Chargers have been, they’re still putting up almost 26 points per game.

It’s make-or-break time for San Diego against a division rival at home. If the Bolts can’t put 27 on the board against the No. 21 passing defense in the league, they might as well pack it in anyway.

Pick: Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)

The Buccaneers finally showed some balls in last week’s shootout loss to Green Bay and that could be the game that gets their ship turned in the right direction. Josh Freeman threw for 342 yards and a couple of touchdowns, spreading the ball all over the field.

Meanwhile, it sounds as though Matt Hasselbeck will be good to go after smacking his throwing arm on a helmet last week. It’s really too bad Kenny Britt went down so early this season and Chris Johnson joined the team as an out-of-shape slob.

Pick: Over

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (3.5, 37.5)

Nice to see Matt Leinart getting another shot here, though I could do a decent job handing off to this backfield.

Pick: Under

New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (+4, 50.5)

Mike Vick is supposed to be back under center, but the Eagles have more injury problems to worry about. Nnamdi Asomugha was carted off the field following a left knee injury during Thursday's practice. That's rotten news with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie already sidelined.

Pick: Over

Last week’s record: 3-0
Season record to date: 18-15

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**Udog** · 11-26-2011, 09:20 PM

NFL

Week 12

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NFL betting weather report: Week 12
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Find out how weather will impact your wagers in Week 12 of the NFL season:

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 37.5)

The forecast in Cincinnati is calling for a 100 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 50s.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 43.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Nashville, with a 100 percent chance of showers. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid 50s.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 37.5)

Surprise, surprise – it’s raining in Seattle. The forecast for CenturyLink Field is calling for an 87 percent chance of showers and winds reaching speeds of up to 13 mph. Game temperatures will be in the low 40s.

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**Udog** · 11-26-2011, 09:53 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 27

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Sunday Night Football: Steelers at Chiefs
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5, 40)

THE STORY: Few teams have made much better use of their bye week than the Pittsburgh Steelers in the past few seasons. The Steelers will look to make it four consecutive wins coming off a bye when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. Pittsburgh has mauled the opposition following a bye in the past three seasons, putting up 94 points and allowing only 30 in those games. No player needed the extra week off more than Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who fractured a thumb on his throwing hand in a win at Cincinnati on Nov. 13 but is expected to play Sunday. The injury-riddled Chiefs have lost three straight.

TV: NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: Pittsburgh opened as a 10.5-point favorite and has climbed as high as -11. The total has climbed from 38 to 40 points.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-3, 5-5 ATS): Pittsburgh has won five of its last six, with a last-second loss to Baltimore the only blemish during that stretch. Still, Mike Tomlin has not been satisfied with the team’s play and benched three veterans – WR Hines Ward, CB Bryant McFadden and LG left guard Chris Kemoeatu. With Roethlisberger’s thumb an issue, the Steelers may look to get RB Rashard Mendenhall untracked against Kansas City’s 28th-ranked run defense. He has only one 100-yard game this season.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Kansas City has sandwiched a pair of three-game losing skids around a four-game winning streak. QB Tyler Palko make his first career start last week and acquitted himself well for a half before winding up with three interceptions in a 34-3 loss at New England. Palko will likely return to the bench following Sunday’s start after the Chiefs picked up Kyle Orton on waivers Wednesday. Kansas City has scored 16 points in its last three games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Kansas City.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City is 5-0 in its last five Sunday night home games.

2. Steelers WR Mike Wallace needs 78 yards for his second straight 1,000-yard season.

3. Kansas City ranks last in the league in sacks (12.0) while the Steelers are at the bottom in interceptions (4).

PREDICTION: Steelers 27, Chiefs 6. Pittsburgh pads its interception stats at the expense of Palko.

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**Udog** · 11-26-2011, 10:03 PM

Where the action is: NFL Week 12 line moves

A short Sunday schedule, due to the Thanksgiving games, doesn’t mean less action at the sportsbook. We talk to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the Week 12 board:

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +3, Move +7

Even without starting QB Matt Schaub, bettors are still pounding Houston and their steamroller running game. Rood says the move to a touchdown is surprising and would have expected the line to stop at 5 – even with Schaub in the lineup.

“Apparently, there are some big believers in the Texans and Matt Leinart and their game-plan going into this,” he says. “It’ll be run the ball, with a few 10-yard passes to tight ends and running backs.”

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -5.5, Move: -3

The Redskins must travel across the country, trying to snap their losing skid in one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL. But that hasn’t stopped the flood of action on Washington.

“The Seahawks have been a weird team,” says Rood. “They get up for big games and suffer letdowns against weaker foes.”

Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders – Open: +1, Move: -3

The injury to Bears QB Jay Cutler has moved the opening number four points. However, Rood isn’t sold on fading Chicago, believing its running game and defense can still topple a dinged-up Raiders squad.

“It’s a pretty big reaction. Cutler is a good quarterback,” says Rood. “Neither team is 100 percent and I’ll take the one with the better defense. There’s good value if you think the Bears can win.”

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers – Open: -7, Move: -5.5

The slumping Bolts have dropped into no-man’s land after opening as touchdown faves. Rood says most bettors are wagering against San Diego rather than betting on the streaking Broncos and QB Tim Tebow.

“If you’re betting on the ‘Denver Tebows,' you’re betting on that defense and their kicker to keep things close,” he says.

**Udog** · 11-27-2011, 05:48 PM

NFL

Monday, November 28

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Giants at Saints: What bettors need to know
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New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-7, 50.5)

THE STORY: The New York Giants stamped themselves as serious contenders with a come-from-behind win at New England on Nov. 6. That was followed by back-to-back losses to San Francisco and Philadelphia, which has the Giants trying to stamp out talk of another late-season tailspin as they prepare for a rugged road test against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

New Orleans is coming off a bye week and is unbeaten at home (4-0) this season, providing a tall order for the Giants, who are in the midst of a brutal five-game stretch that includes games against unbeaten Green Bay and at new NFC East leader Dallas.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-4): New York’s already-suspect running game has ground to a halt with Ahmad Bradshaw missing the last three games with a broken bone in his foot. The Giants managed only 29 yards rushing in last week’s 17-10 home loss to the Eagles. Bradshaw did not practice Thursday and could sit out again. Eli Manning has been intercepted four times in his last three games. He has connected with WR Victor Cruz 25 times in the last four contests.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (7-3): Drew Brees is setting a torrid pace, throwing for the most yards (3,326) in the first 10 games in league history. He has at least 20 completions in an NFL-record 30 straight games and has thrown a TD pass in 37 consecutive games – the second-longest streak in league history. TE Jimmy Graham has six TDs and at least four catches in every game. The Saints have allowed six opponents to score at least 23 points.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees, who has thrown a league-high 422 passes, will be matched up against a defense that’s tied for the lead in sacks (31.0).

2. Manning had a 120.5 passer rating in the fourth quarter, tops in the league.

3. Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (62) and yards receiving (873).

LINE MOVEMENT:

The majority of sportsbooks opened with the Saints giving 7 but there were a few offshore shops that went Giants +6.5. The line is now over the touchdown spread at 7.5 at most locations. The total has been up and down between 50.5 and 52.

TRENDS:

The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games but the Giants are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 road games.

The over is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six games against teams with winning records and 4-0 in the Saints’ last four games off the bye week.

PREDICTION: Saints 30, Giants 20. Without a running game, Giants are unable to slow New Orleans down.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (11/24 - 11/28)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (11/24 - 11/28)

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