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  • The Bum's Monday's NCAAB & NHL Best Bets !

    Mid-Major Report

    November 16, 2011

    Since 1999 when it advanced to the Elite Eight to begin a 13-year run of NCAA Tournament appearances that’s still alive today, Gonzaga has set the standard when it comes to college basketball success among ‘mid-major’ programs.

    But with all due respect to Mark Few’s program, Butler has eclipsed its accomplishments with back-to-back runner-up finishes in the NCAA finals. Also, Virginia Commonwealth made it to the Final Four last season and Davidson got all the way to the 2008 Midwest Regional finals before missing a potential game-winning shot at the buzzer against eventual-champ Kansas.

    In other words, we have more teams to discuss than Gonzaga in terms of mid-major contenders. Nevertheless, we’ll start with Few’s bunch that always plays the nation’s most challenging non-conference schedule.

    The ‘Zags are off to a 2-0 start with wins over Eastern Washington (77-69) and Washington State (89-81), but they failed to cover the number as double-digit favorites in both contests.

    Gonzaga usually uses frequent-flyer miles galore in November and December, but that’s not the case nearly as much this year. The Bulldogs play at Illinois (Dec. 3) and at Xavier on New Year’s Eve, but they’ll take on most of their non-conference slate at home. Teams like Notre Dame (Nov. 30), Michigan St. (Dec. 10), Arizona (Dec. 17) and Butler (Dec. 20) will travel to Spokane.

    Butler captured its first win of the year on Nov. 15, knocking off Chattanooga by a 57-46 count as a 13 ½-point home favorite. The Bulldogs fell to 0-2 ATS after also failing to hook up their backers in a season-opening 80-77 overtime loss at Evansville.

    Brad Stevens’s squad lost three of its best players in Matt Howard (16.6 points per game), Shelvin Mack (16.0 PPG) and Shawn Vanzant. Andrew Smith, a six-foot 10-inch sophomore center, has all the makings of becoming a premier player. He scored 16 points and pulled down 10 rebounds against the Moccasins.

    Another sophomore big man, forward Khyle Marshall, is expecting to make a big jump in 2011-2012 after playing outstanding in last year’s Tournament, especially in the second half against Florida. Chase Stigall, Ronald Nored and Chrishawn Hopkins will often be on the court together to compose a 3-guard lineup.

    Nored might be the country’s best on-the-ball defender along the perimeter, but his lack of a perimeter jumper often limits his offensive impact. Stigall is a streaky 3-point shooter that needs to have a big season.

    Stevens will lead his team into the following non-conference games: vs. Louisville (Nov. 19), at Indiana (Nov. 27), vs. Xavier (Dec. 7), vs. Purdue (in Indianapolis on Dec. 17), at Gonzaga (Dec. 20) and at Stanford (Dec. 22).

    Akron is a team that really caught my eye with its 78-68 win at Mississippi St. as a nine-point underdog. The Zips have all the ingredients needed to pulla first-round upset in the NCAA Tournament. For starters, they have a pair of solid ‘bigs,’ including one of the country’s best shot blockers in Zeke Marshall, who forced Arnett Moultrie into a 2-for-13 shooting performance while swatting away five shots.

    Keith Dambrot’s team has experienced guards that take care of the basketball and get after it defensively. He employs a nine-man rotation that includes Xavier transfer Brian Walsh, junior forward Quincy Diggs, who had a team-high 19 points at The Hump, and a pair of impact freshmen in Nick Harney and Demetrius Treadwell.

    I think bettors would be wise to keep an eye on the Zips, who will probably be an attractive underdog spot Nov. 28 at West Virginia.

    Then again, maybe Akron won’t be too healthy an underdog in Morgantown. We say that because fellow MAC contender, Kent State, beat the Mountaineers by double digits on Nov. 15 as a nine-point road underdog.

    Belmont is another school we’ll most likely be reminded of again on Selection Sunday. The Bruins return nine of 11 key players from last year’s 30-win team and they gave Duke a scare in a 77-76 loss at Cameron Indoor Stadium in their season opener. Belmont wasn’t quite as competitive on Nov. 15 when Memphis pulled away late for a 97-81 victory.

    Unfortunately for everyone, Belmont doesn’t have anymore attractive games remaining with the possible exception for a BracketBuster matchup in February.

    Harvard and Princeton are poised to engage in another memorable fight for the Ivy League’s NCAA bid. The Tigers needed a buzzer-beater in a tiebreaker game to prevent the Crimson from earning its first NCAA bid since 1946.

    Harvard returns its entire roster, while Princeton has a new coach in alum Mitch Henderson and eight of its top-10 scorers back.

    Tommy Amaker’s squad plays at UConn on Dec. 8 and will try to win at Boston College for a second straight season on Dec. 29. Harvard also hosts St. Joseph’s and George Washington from out of the A-10.

    Princeton nearly pulled a stunning first-round upset of Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tourney’s opening round, but it got off to an inauspicious start a few days ago when it lost at home to Wagner by 16. The Tigers’ non-conference slate includes these matchups: at North Carolina St. (Nov. 16), at Rutgers (Dec. 7), at Siena (Dec. 22) and at Florida State (Dec. 30).

    **B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

    --The hot seat for LSU’s Trent Johnson became warmer Nov. 15 when Coastal Carolina won a 71-63 decision over the Tigers. The same can be said for Darrin Horn at South Carolina after losing 58-53 at Elon College.

    --Saint Mary’s is another mid-major that’s become prominent in recent years, as Randy Bennett has done an excellent job, particularly with his recruitment of foreign players. The Gaels thumped Northern Iowa, a Sweet 16 team two seasons ago, in one of ESPN’s late-night games during its Tip-Off Marathon.

    --UCF second-year head coach Donnie Jones, who held the same post at Marshall and served under Billy Donovan at Florida as an assistant for a decade, has been suspended for the first three games of the season amid an NCAA probe. The same investigation resulted in the resignation of UCF AD Keith Tribble last week.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

  • #2
    Deep field again at Maui Invitational

    November 20, 2011

    LAHAINA, Hawaii (AP) - The eight coaches sat at a table perched on soft grass, leis around their necks, palms swaying above their heads, the Pacific Ocean crashing behind.

    When it comes to settings for a basketball tournament, it doesn't get much better than the Maui Invitational.

    The basketball figures to be just as good.

    A tournament known for its beautiful surroundings and deep fields, the Maui Invitational could be on the verge of one-upping itself as the pre-eminent holiday hoops tournament with seven teams coming off NCAA Tournament appearances and a field that's combined for 20 national championships.

    ``That's the reason it's been such a great tournament because they've always had great fields,'' Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said Sunday, just a few yards from picturesque Kaanapali Beach. ``This one measures up to any of the others in the past.''

    After a so-so field in 2009, the Maui Invitational was back in full force last year with a bracket that included some of college basketball's best programs and coaches. Connecticut won the title behind one-man gang Kemba Walker, a win in paradise that served as a warm-up to the Huskies' national title in Houston.

    This year's tournament has a chance to be even better.

    There's No. 6 Duke, the four-time Maui champions who are 12-0 under Krzyzewski at the tournament. Josh Pastner returns to the Maui Invitational for the first time as a coach, leading 10th-ranked Memphis after playing and serving as an assistant coach for Arizona in two previous trips here.

    No. 12 Kansas, a three-time NCAA champion, is back in Maui for the first time since 2005 with a talented but inexperienced team.

    No. 17 Michigan, which won a national championship in 1989, is back in Maui after a 13-year absence with a team that returns four starters and 12 players from a team that brought the buzz back to the program last season.

    UCLA has the deepest resume with 11 national titles and the 2006 Maui title, but is looking to bounce back after two ugly losses to open a season that started with high expectations.

    Throw in Tennessee, Georgetown and upset-specialist Chaminade, the tournament host, and it could be an entertaining three days at quaint Lahaina Civic Center.

    ``There's so much talent, there's so many good players from each of these teams represented here, and obviously well-coached,'' said UCLA coach Ben Howland, whose team opens with Chaminade. ``It's very exciting. It's always the best tournament in the country this time every year.''

    The list of coaches is impressive.

    Krzyzewski has won four national titles and passed mentor Bobby Knight last week to become the winningest Division I men's coach. Bill Self earned a national title with Kansas in 2008 and has won 83 percent of his games in nine seasons in Lawrence. Howland took UCLA to the Final Four three straight seasons. With Michigan's John Beilein, Georgetown's John Thompson III and Tennessee's Cuonzo Martin, six of the eight coaches have combined to win over 2,600 games.

    Pastner is considered one of the nation's best young coaches and Chaminade's Eric Bovaird takes over a program that shocked the basketball world by beating mighty Virginia and Ralph Sampson in 1982 in Hawaii.

    ``It's an honor just to be here with all these great coaches,'' said Bovaird, who initially turned down the job at Chaminade before taking it.

    The players, as you might expect with teams like these, include some of the best in the country.

    The list includes six on the preseason Wooden Award watch list: Will Barton and Joe Jackson of Memphis, UCLA's Joshua Smith and Reeves Nelson, Michigan's Tim Hardaway Jr. and Thomas Robinson of Kansas.

    Duke has the Plumlee brothers, Seth Curry and Austin Rivers, considered by most recruiting services to be the top incoming freshman for 2011-12. Georgetown returns a pair of good scorers in Hollis Thompson and senior guard Jason Clark, and Tennessee has five players averaging double figures in its first season under Martin, the former Missouri State coach who took over for Bruce Pearl after an NCAA investigation.

    ``It's no secret that you need great players performing well to win,'' Krzyzewski said.

    With so many good teams, there are no real letups, no chances for teams to coast into the next round.

    The tournament gets started Monday morning with Michigan facing Memphis in a matchup of Top 25 teams. Duke opens with Tennessee, while Kansas and Georgetown play each other in the first round.

    UCLA doesn't figure to have it easy with Chaminade in its opener, either. Picked as the favorites to win the Pac-12, the Bruins opened the season with double-digit losses to mid-majors and are facing a team that relishes the underdog role on its home turf.

    ``The competition is fierce,'' Howland said.

    Perhaps more this year than any other.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • #3
      Duke and Tennessee clash in Maui

      TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (2-0)

      vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (4-0)


      Maui Invitational – First Round – Maui, HI
      Tip-off: Tuesday, 5:35 p.m. EDT
      Line: Duke -12, Total: 144.5

      In the first round of the EA Sports Maui Invitational, Duke takes on an inexperienced Tennessee squad that has won its first two games of the season with a new coach, Cuonzo Martin.

      Despite being 4-0 SU, the Blue Devils are just 1-3 ATS to start the season. But there are reasons for Duke fans to be encouraged. The biggest question for Blue Devils’ head coach Mike Krzyzewski this season has been in the frontcourt, which showed its skills against a talented Davidson crew of big men (Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks), with Mason Plumlee registering 16 points and 13 rebounds. Plumlee is averaging 12.3 PPG and 10.0 RPG this season. Duke is usually known for its sharp shooting, and this group can certainly stroke it, shooting 51% FG (23rd in nation) including an impressive 46.4% from three-point land. Additionally, the Blue Devils were 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in regular season tournaments last year, so play on DUKE to win and cover against a new coach in his first regular-season tournament.

      These two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also like the Blue Devils on Monday.

      Mike Krzyzewski is 43-23 ATS (65.2%, +17.7 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite as the coach of DUKE. The average score was DUKE 82.3, OPPONENT 65.4 - (Rating = 2*).

      TENNESSEE is 20-44 ATS (31.3%, -28.4 Units) in all tournament games since 1997. The average score was TENNESSEE 71.7, OPPONENT 72.1 - (Rating = 2*).

      Duke (4-0) has worlds of talent but is still struggling to use it effectively. Although the Blue Devils scored 82 points in their most recent outing against Davidson, they entered the half losing to their mid-major opponent and only registered 10 assists on their 29 field goals made. The key for them winning against Tennessee will be their post players remaining as efficient on the offensive end as they have been this season. Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are a combined 44-of-74 (60%) from the field so far this season, which has created good looks for Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins who have combined to make 19-of-38 three-point attempts.

      Tennessee is 2-0 (SU and ATS) so far, winning by 29 points over UNC-Greensboro and beating Louisiana-Monroe by 23 points. Like Duke, the Vols know how to shoot the rock (53% FG, 49% three-point FG). They have relied on perimeter play from Trae Golden (23.0 PPG) who has nailed six treys through two games with 20 assists and just five turnovers. However, Tennessee has only one returning starter from last year and is void of the talent and size in the post to defend against the efficient Duke crew. Until the Volunteers prove they can defeat a big-conference squad with legitimate post players, play against them in major matchups.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • #4
        Memphis and Michigan open Maui Invitational Monday

        MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (3-0)

        vs. MEMPHIS TIGERS (1-0)


        Maui Invitational – First Round – Maui, HI
        Tip-off: Monday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
        Line: Memphis -6, Total: 131

        College basketball’s preseason tournament season kicks into full swing when Michigan and Memphis tip off the Maui Invitational on Monday afternoon.

        Michigan hasn’t been tested yet this year, pounding on Ferris State and Towson before barely squeaking by a Western Illinois team that went 2-16 in the Summit League a year ago. A lot of people thought Memphis would be caught off-guard by a very good Belmont team in their opener, but they won comfortably, 97-81. Dating back to last year, the Tigers have won five in a row ATS, and they have the clear edge in talent in this matchup. MEMPHIS, which was a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) in regular-season tournament games last year, is the pick here.

        The FoxSheets have a three-star trend backing the Tigers:

        Play Against - Neutral court teams (MICHIGAN) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. (73-33 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.9%, +36.7 units. Rating = 3*).

        The Wolverines will try to slow things down in this one. They’re one of the slowest-tempo teams in the nation, which is what allows them to stay close against superior talent. While they went just 1-9 SU against ranked teams a year ago, they were 8-2 ATS in those games and lost by five or less, or went to overtime, in six of those nine losses.

        They’re still trying to find their way without star point guard Darius Morris, who left for the NBA. Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.3 PPG) is a legitimate lead scorer, but he’s the only double-digit scorer returning from last year’s team. Michigan relies heavily on the three-pointer (they’ve already attempted 73 through three games), but the Wolverines are shooting just 30% from behind the arc so far this year. They are also shooting a subpar 43% FG and a horrific 58% from the free-throw line, and have 38 assists to 34 turnovers as a team.

        Memphis blitzed Belmont in their opener, shooting 59% from the field, with talented-but-erratic swingman Wesley Witherspoon making all eight of his shots from the field, including three threes, en route to 22 points. The backcourt tandem of Joe Jackson (20 points) and Will Barton (23) was nearly unguardable, getting to the line a combined 23 times in the win over Belmont. They’ll present difficult matchups across the board for the Wolverines.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • #5
          Kansas-Georgetown square off Monday in Maui

          GEORGETOWN HOYAS (2-0)

          vs. KANSAS JAYHAWKS (1-1)


          Maui Invitational – First Round – Maui, HI
          Tip-off: Monday, 11:59 p.m. EDT
          Line: Kansas -5, Total: 139.5

          Kansas and Georgetown both have something to prove when they wrap up Day 1 at the Maui Invitational Monday night.

          Both teams are considered to be relatively down this season. After losing their top three scorers, Kansas was beaten by 10 on a neutral court by Kentucky, and Georgetown is trying to replace their top two players from last year’s team with a middling recruiting class. The Jayhawks should be better prepared for this one after their game with Kentucky, and they have an edge in the frontcourt with power forward Thomas Robinson and shot-blocking 7-footer Jeff Withey. This will be the Hoyas’ first real test of the year, and they finished last season in awful fashion. Georgetown lost six of their final seven SU, and dropped all seven of those games ATS. KANSAS is the pick.

          The FoxSheets have a three-star trend centered on head coach Bill Self that bodes well for the Jayhawks:

          Self is 37-13 ATS (74.0%, +22.7 Units) after playing a game as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1997. The average score was Self 76.1, OPPONENT 64.7 - (Rating = 3*).

          Georgetown scored a couple of easy victories over Savannah State and UNC-Greensboro to start off the year, hitting 54.2% of their shots and 40.5% of their threes along the way. Junior swingman Hollis Thompson, the team’s leading returning scorer, is averaging 16.0 PPG in just 21.5 minutes per game because neither game was competitive so far. The Hoyas are also getting big contributions from senior center Henry Sims (13.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.0 APG), who was a bit player in his first three seasons.

          After trouncing Towson State 100-54 in the opener, the Jayhawks struggled against Kentucky, shooting just 33.9% from the field in a 75-65 loss. Robinson got into foul trouble, fouling out after another double-double. The one positive was the aggressiveness of senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor, considered an underachiever coming into the year. Taylor shot just 3-for-13 from the field, but got to the line frequently (15-for-17) en route to 22 points. With his quickness, he has a chance to be the catalyst of the Jayhawks’ offense.
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • #6
            Ohio seeks 5th straight win hosting Miami Ohio

            MIAMI OHIO REDHAWKS (4-7)
            at OHIO BOBCATS (8-3)

            Kickoff: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
            Line: Ohio -7.5

            Ohio University goes for its fifth straight win on Tuesday when it hosts a Miami Ohio team coming off two consecutive three-point losses.

            The Bobcats have won the past five meetings (SU and ATS) with their in-state rival RedHawks, beating them by an average of 15.2 PPG during this series streak. Ohio has won these games by out-rushing Miami by a whopping margin of 1,159 to 415 over this five-game span, which averages out to 232 to 83 YPG. Bobcats star RB Donte Harden has done a good chunk of this damage with 183 yards (8.3 YPC) and 4 TD in two career games against the RedHawks. And considering Miami ranks last in all of FBS in rushing offense (75 YPG), it makes sense to expect this rushing discrepancy to continue. The pick here is for OHIO to win and cover.

            This FoxSheets coaching trend also supports the Bobcats.

            Frank Solich is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of OHIO. The average score was OHIO 31.8, OPPONENT 22.0 - (Rating = 2*).

            The RedHawks do not usually have success running the football, gaining just 117 yards on 54 carries (2.2 YPC) in the past two games. But QB Zac Dysert is no slouch, averaging 291 total YPG, third-most in the MAC. Dysert’s arm has really gotten a workout in the past five games, completing 126-of-172 passes (73%) for 1,638 yards (328 YPG), 15 TD and 6 INT. Dysert has struggled in his career against Ohio, throwing for 498 yards, 2 INT and 6 INT in two meetings. But WR Nick Harwell had a monster game against the Bobcats last year, catching 11 passes for 219 yards. Harwell has also been unreal in his past two games, grabbing 29 passes for 367 yards and 5 TD. Considering Ohio has allowed 594 passing yards in the past two weeks, Harwell should have another big night. Dysert has suffered from poor pass protection all year, as Miami has allowed the second-most sacks in the nation at 3.8 per game.

            On defense, Miami has been much better since Toledo hung 49 on them in late October. The RedHawks are allowing just 16.0 PPG in the four games since. Miami’s pass defense has been very good (194 YPG, 25th in nation), but its run defense has been porous at times, allowing 163 YPG (68th in FBS).

            Ohio ranks 20th in the country in rushing yards (211 YPG), but it can also throw the ball with QB Tyler Tettleton. The sophomore has thrown for 2,665 yards (242 YPG), and at least one touchdown in each of his 11 games this season. He has also scored a rushing touchdown in four straight games, giving him a total of 31 TD (23 passing, 8 INT), and only six interceptions this season. Senior WR LaVon Brazill had his four-game streak of 100+ receiving yards snapped last week at Bowling Green, but he still caught his 10th TD pass of the season.

            Defensively, the Bobcats are pretty sound (343 YPG, 31st in nation) despite just 1.4 sacks per game (102nd in FBS). They created three Bowling Green turnovers last week, and will look to attack a Miami offense that has 12 giveaways in the past six games.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • #7
              Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
              11/20/11 16-*6-*0 72.73% +*4700 Detail
              11/19/11 14-*13-*0 51.85% -*150 Detail
              11/18/11 5-*14-*0 26.32% -*5200 Detail
              11/17/11 16-*16-*1 50.00% -*800 Detail
              11/16/11 10-*8-*1 55.56% +*600 Detail
              11/15/11 30-*24-*1 55.56% +*1800 Detail
              11/14/11 25-*24-*1 51.02% -*700 Detail
              11/13/11 10-*4-*1 71.43% +*2800 Detail
              11/12/11 10-*12-*0 45.45% -*1600 Detail
              11/11/11 30-*26-*3 53.57% +*700 Detail
              11/09/11 4-*3-*0 57.14% +*350 Detail
              11/07/11 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
              Totals 173-*153-*8 53.07% +2350



              Monday, November 21

              Game Score Status Pick Amount

              St. Bonaventure - 7:00 PM ET St. Bonaventure -7 500
              Siena - Under 133.5 500

              Wright St. - 7:00 PM ET Wright St. +20 500
              Florida - Over 126.5 500

              Sam Houston St. - 7:00 PM ET Mercer -8 500
              Mercer - Under 130.5 500

              Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Fresno St. -7 500
              Fresno St. - Under 126 500

              Massachusetts - 7:00 PM ET Boston College +4.5 500
              Boston College - Over 144.5 500

              Green Bay - 7:05 PM ET Indiana St. -9 500
              Indiana St. - Over 128.5 500

              Notre Dame - 7:30 PM ET Notre Dame +4 500
              Missouri - Over 141.5 500

              Austin Peay - 7:30 PM ET Bowling Green -4 500
              Bowling Green - Under 132.5 500

              Brown - 7:30 PM ET George Mason -15 500
              George Mason - Over 140.5 500

              Louisiana-Monroe - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe +20 500
              Mississippi St. - Over 132 500

              Southern Methodist - 8:30 PM ET Oral Roberts -10 500
              Oral Roberts - Under 125.5 500

              Norfolk State - 8:30 PM ET Marquette -22 500
              Marquette - Over 150 500

              Vanderbilt - 9:00 PM ET Oregon St. +7 500
              Oregon St. - Over 151.5 500

              UCLA - 9:30 PM ET Chaminade +14.5 500
              Chaminade -

              Texas-San Antonio - 9:30 PM ET Texas-San Antonio +6 500
              Colorado St. - Over 140 500

              California - 10:00 PM ET California -6 500
              Georgia - Over 132 500

              Central Michigan - 10:00 PM ET Pepperdine -3.5 500
              Pepperdine - Under 131 500

              Georgetown - 11:50 PM ET Kansas -5.5 500
              Kansas - Over 139 500


              ==============================================

              Monday, November 21

              Game Score Status Pick Amount

              Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Carolina +183 500
              Philadelphia - Over 6 500

              NY Islanders - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -229 500
              Pittsburgh - Over 5.5 500

              Phoenix - 7:00 PM ET Phoenix +124 500
              Washington - Over 5.5 500

              Calgary - 7:00 PM ET Calgary -115 500
              Columbus - Under 5.5 500

              Boston - 7:30 PM ET Montreal +118 500
              Montreal - Under 5.5 500

              New Jersey - 7:30 PM ET New Jersey +120 500
              Florida - Under 5 500

              Edmonton - 8:30 PM ET Edmonton +132 500
              Dallas - Over 5.5 500
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment

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