NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (11/22 - 11/26)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Friday, November 25

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College football betting weather report: Black Friday
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

You’ve placed your wagers on Friday’s college football action. But did you look to the skies? Here’s how Mother Nature could impact your bets on the holiday Friday:

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies (-18, 64.5)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 16 mph at Brigham Field, blowing SSW from corner to corner.

Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (-2.5, 53.5)

The forecast in Buffalo is calling for winds, blowing SW from corner to corner, at speeds of up to 19 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 50s.

Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+2.5, 75.5)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing south down field in Tulsa Friday.

Akron Zips at Western Michigan Broncos (-28)

The forecast in Nazareth is calling for winds, blowing SW from end to end, at speeds of up to 19 mph.

Colorado Buffaloes at Utah Utes (-22, 48.5)

Snow is in the forecast in Salt Lake City, with a 62 percent chance of the white stuff. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 30s at Rice-Eccles Stadium.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Friday's best games

Houston is 11-0, 8-2 vs spread, covering last six games; they've held last three opponents to 17 or less points. Tulsa won its last seven games, 5-0 vs spread in last five; their three losses are all by 20+ points, but losses are to Boise State and the other two Oklahoma schools. Dogs covered five of last six series games, with Houston failing to cover last two tries as series favorite. Cougars have won two of last three visits to this site. Home underdogs are 5-10 vs spread in Conference USA this year.

Underdogs covered six of last eight Backyard Brawls, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points; this is last time this will be a conference game, with Pitt bolting for ACC. West Virginia won six of last nine vs Panthers, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 3-32-21 points. Four of last five Pitt games stayed under total; seven of last eight Mountaineer games went over. Big East home faves are 5-6 vs spread.

Arkansas beat LSU three of last four years; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Hogs' last seven visits here. That said, LSU is 8-2 vs spread this season, and in games they didn't cover, they won 35-7/42-9- they're 2-2 as home faves, with home wins by 28-30-35-33 points. Arkansas won its last seven in a row; they're 1-1 as dogs, with only loss 38-14 at Alabama (+11). SEC double digit home favorites are 13-4 vs spread this year.

Arizona State just lost three close games in row, allowing 32.3 ppg; now they need win here and USC win over UCLA to get to Pac-12 title game. Cal Bears beat Sun Devils seven of last eight years, including 50-17 LY at home. Favorites covered five of last six series games. Cal lost rivalry game to Stanford last week; they're 1-3 as underdog this season. Pac-10 home favorites of 5+ points are 14-8 vs spread.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 26

Game 139-140: Ohio State at Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 98.211; Michigan 101.301
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Michigan by 7 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 141-142: Missouri at Kansas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 102.158; Kansas 76.052
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 26; 58
Vegas Line: Missouri by 23 1/2; 61
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-23 1/2); Under

Game 143-144: Rutgers at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 94.343; Connecticut 85.790
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-3); Over

Game 145-146: Cincinnati at Syracuse (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 87.037; Syracuse 89.232
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+2 1/2); Under

Game 147-148: Michigan State at Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 98.029; Northwestern 96.729
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+6 1/2); Over

Game 149-150: Purdue at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 85.349; Indiana 72.316
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 13; 51
Vegas Line: Purdue by 7 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-7 1/2); Under

Game 151-152: Illinois at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 89.203; Minnesota 80.279
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Illinois by 10 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+10 1/2); Over

Game 153-154: Georgia at Georgia Tech (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 103.606; Georgia Tech 99.388
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 4; 49
Vegas Line: Georgia by 6; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+6); Under

Game 155-156: Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 92.406; Wake Forest 91.839
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+2); Under

Game 157-158: Clemson at South Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 87.768; South Carolina 97.573
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 10; 54
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-3 1/2); Over

Game 159-160: Maryland at NC State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 78.412; NC State 87.567
Dunkel Line: NC State by 9; 53
Vegas Line: NC State by 12 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+12 1/2); Over

Game 161-162: Duke at North Carolina (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 79.458; North Carolina 96.237
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 17; 51
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 13; 54
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-13); Under

Game 163-164: Tennessee at Kentucky (12:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 89.555; Kentucky 86.382
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 7 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+7 1/2); Under

Game 165-166: Wyoming at Boise State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 82.130; Boise State 111.430
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 29 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Boise State by 33; 61
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+33); Over

Game 167-168: Nevada at Utah State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 89.613; Utah State 84.133
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 5 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Utah State by 1 1/2; 65
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+1 1/2); Under

Game 169-170: Rice at SMU (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 72.367; SMU 84.302
Dunkel Line: SMU by 12; 58
Vegas Line: SMU by 14; 54
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+14); Over

Game 171-172: Alabama at Auburn (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 114.581; Auburn 98.194
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 16 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Alabama by 21; 47
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (+21); Over

Game 173-174: Oregon State at Oregon (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 83.227; Oregon 120.353
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 37; 60
Vegas Line: Oregon by 27 1/2; 64
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-27 1/2); Under

Game 175-176: Virginia Tech at Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 98.041; Virginia 98.227
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 4; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+4); Over

Game 177-178: Penn State at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 95.397; Wisconsin 111.209
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 16; 44
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-14 1/2); Under

Game 179-180: Texas Tech at Baylor (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 79.921; Baylor 101.608
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 21 1/2; 74
Vegas Line: Baylor by 13; 78
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-13); Under

Game 181-182: Florida State at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 98.480; Florida 97.596
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Florida State by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+2 1/2); Over

Game 183-184: East Carolina at Marshall (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 77.007; Marshall 81.190
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 3; 58
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 1; 53
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (+1); Over

Game 185-186: New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 68.854; Louisiana Tech 94.430
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 25 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 20; 59
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (-20); Under

Game 187-188: Memphis at Southern Mississippi (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 58.344; Southern Mississippi 104.356
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 46; 60
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 35 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-35 1/2); Over

Game 189-190: Air Force at Colorado State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 85.910; Colorado State 74.158
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 12; 51
Vegas Line: Air Force by 16 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+16 1/2); Under

Game 191-192: Washington State at Washington (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 84.586; Washington 90.318
Dunkel Line: Washington by 5 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Washington by 9; 65
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+9); Under

Game 193-194: Mississippi at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 74.283; Mississippi State 95.641
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 21 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 17; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-17); Over

Game 195-196: Notre Dame at Stanford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 97.381; Stanford 109.832
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 12 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Stanford by 7; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-7); Over

Game 197-198: San Jose State at Fresno State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 77.526; Fresno State 81.736
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 4; 60
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 6 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 199-200: Iowa State at Oklahoma (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 94.559; Oklahoma 118.867
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 24 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 28 1/2; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+28 1/2); Over

Game 201-202: San Diego State at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 81.814; UNLV 70.048
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 12; 47
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 16 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+16 1/2); Under

Game 203-204: UCLA at USC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 92.790; USC 104.629
Dunkel Line: USC by 12; 62
Vegas Line: USC by 14; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+14); Over

Game 205-206: Tulane at Hawaii (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 55.668; Hawaii 80.443
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 25; 50
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 16 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (-16 1/2); Under

Game 207-208: Troy at Western Kentucky (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 71.658; Western Kentucky 74.280
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 2 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 5 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+5 1/2); Over

Game 209-210: UL-Lafayette at Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 77.657; Arizona 90.644
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 13; 56
Vegas Line: Arizona by 14; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+14); Under

Game 211-212: Florida International at Middle Tennessee State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 81.121; Middle Tennessee State 64.951
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 16; 56
Vegas Line: Florida International by 8; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-8); Over

Game 213-214: UAB at Florida Atlantic (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 64.032; Florida Atlantic 60.275
Dunkel Line: UAB by 4; 45
Vegas Line: UAB by 5 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+5 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 241-242: James Madison at Eastern Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 71.618; Eastern Kentucky 65.939
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 243-244: Norfolk State at Old Dominion (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Norfolk State 54.133; Old Dominion 75.037
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 21
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 245-246: Albany at Stony Brook (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Albany 56.206; Stony Brook 70.744
Dunkel Line: Stony Brook by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 247-248: Central Arkansas at Tennessee Tech (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Arkansas 70.470; Tennessee Tech 72.154
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

OTHER GAMES:

Southern at Grambling State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 46.133; Grambling State 53.000
Dunkel Line: Grambling State by 7

[Udog]

Where the action is: NCAAF Week 13 line moves

Sportsbooks are bracing for a busy Week 13 schedule. We talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves heading into Saturday’s action:

Eastern Carolina Pirates at Marshall Thundering Herd -- Open: +2.5, Move -2.5

According to Rood, two groups came in big on Marshall Thursday, flipping the spread to the home side. There hasn’t been much public action on this C-USA game, and there is zero money on Eastern Carolina.

“This is a total head-to-head between the books and the sharps,” says Rood.

Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos – Open: -31.5, Move: -34.5

This is another game in which almost all the action has been from wiseguys. Rood says two groups came in and bet BSU heavily on Friday morning, forcing the bookmakers to jump from 32.5 straight to 34.5.

“We’ve made an aggressive move,” says Rood. “The wiseguys have been spot on with these games. I don’t imagine we’re going to attract any action on the other side, so we’re moving even though it leaves us open to a big middle.”

Troy Trojans at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – Open: -7, Move: -5.5

This spread moved off the key number and into no-man’s land. Rood says all the action has been on the Trojans and that bettors could care less about the key number.

“They are seeing one of two things,” says Rood. “A: They feel like we have the wrong team favored. Or, B: They think we’ve overvalued the home side.”

Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: -5.5, Move: -3.5, Move: -4

The spread for the ACC grudge match has danced around. Says Rood: “We’ve been up and down the ladder on this one” after a sharp group came in and took the +4.5, then another came in and bought back the -4.

“As long as it doesn’t land on 4, we’ll be fine,” says Rood. “But now that I’ve uttered those words, I’m sure it will come in at 4.”

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Saturday's best games

Ohio State won its last seven games vs Michigan, with last four by 11+ points, but all that was with Tressel coaching Buckeyes; things are a lot different now, with OSU losing three of four four road games. Favorites covered six of last nine series games, with Buckeyes winning four of last five played here. Wolverines are 5-1 as home favorites this year, and in only game they didn't cover, they still won 31-3.

Underdogs covered seven of last nine Michigan State-Northwestern tilts, with Spartans winning last three, by 8-10-17 points; MSU won its last three visits here, by 8-17-3 points. Wildcats won last four games to get bowl eligible; they're 3-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 at home- they've lost home games by 18 to Michigan, 10 to Penn State. State is 5-1 as a fave, 1-0 on road; they're 2-2 SU on road (won 10-7 at OSU, 37-21 ai Iowa).

Georgia is in SEC title game next week; do they look past this game and look ahead to playing that game? Dawgs won nine of last ten games with Georgia Tech, winning last five played in Atlanta, with all five wins by 6+ points; underdogs covered last three series games, with average total in last four, 66.3. Georgia won last nine games after 0-2 start; they're 3-1 as road favorites. Jackets lost three of last five games, are 1-2 as a dog.

Clemson has ACC title game next week; they lost last two road games, but won outright in only game as dog this year, at Va Tech. Tigers lost last two games vs South Carolina (29-7/34-17), but won five of their last seven visits here- underdogs covered four of last five series games here. Gamecocks are 5-1 since Shaw became QB, but scored 17 or less points in three of Shaw's four starts vs I-A opponents.

Six of last eight Alabama-Auburn tilts were won by eight or less points, with Crimson Tide losing three of last four visits here (win was 26-21 in last visit). Auburn is 7-4, but losses are by 14-24-35-38 points- they've been outscored 68-10 in second half of thoe four games. Tide is 7-3 as a favorite this year- they'replaying for spot in national title game, if LSU won its game Friday. SEC favorites of 20+ points are 6-2 this season.

Virginia Tech won last seven games vs Virginia, with six of seven by 12+ points; they beat UVa 37-7/42-13 last two years. Hokies are 5-1 in last six visits here, winning last three by 29-12-38 points, but Cavaliers are better this year, winning six of last seven games, including rare win last week at Florida State. Hokies are 5-0 on road, 2-3 as road favorite, with road wins by 7-20-21-4-11 points. Winner here plays Clemson in ACC title game next week.

Favorites covered last six Penn State-Wisconsin games. Lions hammered Wisconsin 48-7/38-7 last two years, but they scored 16 or less points in six games this year- defense has allowed 7-17-14 points last three games. Bully Badgers allowed 37-33 points in their two losses, both away from home- they're 4-1 as home favorites, and in only non-cover they crushed UNLV 51-17. Winner here goes to first Big Dozen title game next week.

Florida won six of last seven games vs Florida State, with favorites 4-0 vs spread in last four; favorites covered State's last six visits to Swamp. Seminoles lost its last three visits here by a combined score of 116-29. Gators lost five of last six games against I-A foes, with turnover ratio of -10; they're 0-4 as an underdog this year, with three of five losses by 11 or more points. SEC non-conference underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in '11.

Stanford beat Notre Dame 37-14/45-38 last two years, after losing seven in row to Irish before that; underdogs covered Irish's last three visits to Farm, with Notre Dame winning three of last four here. Stanford won its rivalry game by FG over Cal last week; Cardinal defense hasn't played as well since the USC game. Pac-10 non-conference home favorites are 7-5 vs spread. Irish is 4-1 on road; this is their first game as underdog in '11- they covered their last four games as a road underdog.

Last game of season for probation-bound USC; UCLA gets to Pac-12 title game if they pull upset here. USC won 11 of last 12 games against Bruins, winning last four, all by 14+ points; UCLA lost its last six visits here (1-5 vs spread, and only cover was 24-7 loss). Pac-10 home faves of between 10-20 points are 4-7 vs spread in conference games this season. UCLA is 1-4 on road this year, losing last three away games by scores of 45-19/48-12/31-6. Trojans covered five of seven as a favorite this year.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College football betting weather report: Week 13
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets this Saturday:

Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats (+6, 51.5)

There’s a 77 percent chance of rain in Evanston, with temperatures dipping into the low 50s and winds blowing at 14 mpg.

Rice Owls at SMU Mustangs (-13, 53.5)

Rain will give way to cloudy skies around kickoff in Dallas Saturday. Winds will blow north, from end to end, at speeds of up to 21 mph.

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners (-28.5, 61.5)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 30 mph in Norman, making the kicking and passing games tricky.

Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats (+7, 43.5)

The forecast in Lexington is calling for showers and winds of speeds up to 14 mph Saturday. There is a 35 percent chance of showers, expected to start around halftime.

Troy Trojans at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-5.5, 50.5)

Rain is in the forecast for Bowling Green, Kentucky, with a 48 percent chance of rain beginning around halftime. Winds will blow south at speeds of up to 15 mph.

Purdue Boilermakers at Indiana Hoosiers (+7.5, 57.5)

The forecast in Bloomington is calling for rain with a 78 percent chance of showers and winds reaching speeds of up to 14 mph.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+20.5, 47)

There is a 16 percent chance of showers in Auburn with thunder storms rolling in late in the game.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks (+25.5, 59.5)

Strong winds will blow through Arrowhead Stadium, reaching speeds of up to 20 mph.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+10, 43)

Snow is in the forecast for Minneapolis, with a 51 percent chance of the white stuff. Game-time temperatures will dip into the 30s while winds will blow at speeds of up to 15 mph.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers (-14.5, 49)

Rain is in the forecast for Madison, with a chance of snow later in the game. Temperatures drop into the low 40s.

FIU Golden Panthers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (+8.5, 53.5)

There’s a 28 percent chance of showers and winds blowing at speeds of 15 mph inside Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium.

Memphis Tigers at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-36.5, 56)

Thunder storms are in the forecast in Hattiesburg Saturday. There is a 39 percent chance of showers.

New Mexico State Aggies at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-21, 58.5)

The forecast in Ruston is calling for thunder storms and an 80 percent chance of showers. Winds will reach speeds of up to 15 mph.

Mississippi Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-17, 46.5)

Thunder storms are in the forecast for Davis Wade Stadium Saturday. There’s an 82 percent chance of showers.

Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies (-8.5, 64.5)

There is a 54 percent chance of showers in Seattle, with game-time temperatures in the high 40s.

Tulane Green Wave at Hawaii Warriors (-16.5, 55)

There is a 26 percent chance of showers early into this WAC matchup, giving way to clear skies in the second half. Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College football Week 13 action: What bettors need to know
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+6, 54.5)

THE STORY: Motivation will not be an issue for either No. 14 Georgia or No. 21 Georgia Tech when the two in-state rivals meet at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. The Bulldogs are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won nine games in a row since starting the season 0-2. Georgia clinched the SEC East Division last week and awaits LSU, Arkansas or Alabama in next weekend’s SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets rebounded from a loss against Virginia Tech that eliminated Tech from the ACC Coastal Division title chase, winning 38-31 at Duke.

Much like everything else between Georgia and Tech, the series history sparks debate. Georgia claims it leads 61-37-5, not counting two Tech wins in 1943-44. Tech naturally counts the two victories, saying the series record is 61-39-5. Georgia has won nine of the past 10 meetings.

TV: ESPN, ESPN3.com.

LINE: Georgia opened around -5.5 and was bet up to -6.5 before settling around -6.

ABOUT GEORGIA (9-2, 7-1 SEC): Georgia played perhaps its worst game in two months last week, scoring just one offensive touchdown and posting a season-low in points scored in a 19-10 victory over Kentucky in Athens. With leading rusher Isaiah Crowell out after the first series with an injured ankle, and second-leading rusher Carlton Thomas not in uniform, the Bulldogs got 101 yards rushing from Brandon Harton. Both Crowell and Thomas are expected to play this week. Georgia’s defense ranks fourth in the nation, and figures to provide a strong challenge for Tech’s triple-option attack.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (8-3, 5-3 ACC): The Yellow Jackets run the ball as well as any team in the nation. Tech ranks second in the country in rushing offense (323.5 yards) and 17th in points scored (36.5). The Yellow Jackets rushed for five touchdowns last week against Duke. Quarterback Tevin Washington rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown, and passed for 185 yards. Tech leads the ACC and ranks 23rd nationally in passing defense, but gave up season highs in pass completions, attempts and touchdowns last week.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Georgia Tech.
* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Longtime Georgia broadcaster Larry Munson died Sunday at age 89. Munson called Georgia games from 1966-2008.

2. Georgia gave up 512 yards of total offense to Tech last year, but held on for a 42-34 victory in Athens.

3. A victory would give Tech nine wins for the third time in four years under coach Paul Johnson.

PREDICTION: Georgia 24, Georgia Tech 17 – The Bulldogs’ defense will stop the Yellow Jackets’ triple option just enough for Georgia to edge its in-state rival.



Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (-7.5, 44.5)

THE STORY: The Big Ten's signature rivalry takes center stage when Ohio State travels to face No. 16 Michigan. The Buckeyes have won six consecutive games against the Wolverines (excluding last year's vacated victory) but are down this season, coming off consecutive losses against Purdue and Penn State. Michigan, meanwhile, is looking to carry over momentum from a 45-17 rout of then-No. 17 Nebraska.

TV: ABC.

LINE: Michigan opened as high as -8 and was bet down to 7.5, with a few -7 spreads out there.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (6-5): The Buckeyes, who are just 1-3 in true road games, have struggled this year largely to a stagnant offense that ranks 108th among FBS teams in total yardage (315.0) and 118th in passing (118.0). Quarterback Braxton Miller is the team's leading rusher with 595 yards, but he has completed just 48.6 percent of his passes. Ohio State has the 14th-ranked defense in the nation, yielding an average of 19 points.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (9-2): Junior QB Denard Robinson has been the headliner, but the Wolverines owe much of this year's revival to an improved defense that is sixth nationally in points allowed (15.6) while scoring three touchdowns itself. Senior LB Brandon Herron has returned a fumble and an interception for scores. The country's 12th-ranked rushing offense is paced by Robinson (993 yards, 14 TDs) and sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (891 yards, 9 TDs).

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Michigan.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Though it has not beaten the Buckeyes since 2003, Michigan still holds a 57-43-6 lead in the overall series.

2. This marks just the third time in series history that both teams have a first-year head coaches. New Ohio State coaches are 5-10-2 in their debuts against Michigan.

3. Ohio State had not lost back-to-back November games since 1999, when it dropped three straight to finish its last non-winning season at 6-6.

PREDICTION: Michigan 27, Ohio State 13. The Buckeyes' inability to move the ball, particularly on the road, will likely mean the end of their longest win streak against the Wolverines.



Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+20.5, 47)

THE STORY: After winning a National Championship last season, Auburn has taken a bit of a step back in 2011. Still, Tigers fans will see the season as a great success if they can find a way to knock rival Alabama out of the BCS title game. Things are lined up perfectly for the Crimson Tide, who will are ranked second in the BCS standings and will likely lock up their spot in the National Championship Game with a win in the 76th Iron Bowl at Auburn on Saturday afternoon. The Crimson Tide came up just short, 28-27, in th Iron Bowl last season, surrendering a 24-point lead at home. This year’s edition of the Alabama defense is not likely to repeat that letdown. The Tigers are yielding more points than they have scored overall but still managed to be bowl eligible.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Alabama opened -21 and has been bet down slightly to -20.5.

ABOUT ALABAMA (10-1, 6-1 SEC): The Crimson Tide have spent the season shutting down everyone in their path, allowing an average of 8.4 points while leading the nation in both scoring and total defense. It came as a bit of a surprise last week when FCS school Georgia Southern rushed for 302 yards and scored a season-high 21 points against the Alabama defense. Trent Richardson made sure the Crimson Tide would not suffer an historic upset, padding his Heisman resume with 175 yards and three total touchdowns.

ABOUT AUBURN (7-4, 4-3): The Tigers have gotten crushed by the other top teams in the SEC this season, losing by a combined 128-31 to Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. Sophomore Clint Moseley has replaced junior Barrett Trotter at quarterback in the last four games and has had some success, throwing five touchdowns against two interceptions. His 167 yards in last week’s 35-16 win over Samford marked a career high.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Richardson broke the Alabama record with his 20th rushing touchdown last week. He is three behind Tim Tebow’s SEC mark.

2. Alabama’s seniors have won a school-record 46 games.

3. The visiting team has won eight of the last 12 Iron Bowls, and 19 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less.

PREDICTION: Alabama 28, Auburn 10. The Crimson Tide defense will not have a problem with Moseley and the Tigers offense.



Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford (-7, 58.5)

THE STORY: Quarterback Andrew Luck tries to put a final stamp on his Heisman Trophy campaign when No. 5 Stanford hosts No. 24 Notre Dame on Saturday. Both teams are coming off closer-than-expected victories. Luck and the Cardinal kept their slim national championship hopes alive with a 31-28 victory over California last week, while the Fighting Irish extended their winning streak to four by edging Boston College 16-14.

TV: ABC.

LINE: The Cardinal opened as 6.5-point faves and have been bet up to a touchdown.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-3): The Fighting Irish have been carried in recent weeks by their ground game, but they took a hit last week when the team's No. 2 rusher, Jonas Gray (791 yards, 12 touchdowns), was lost for the season because of a knee injury. Junior running back Cierre Wood, who has gained 1,001 yards on the ground and 175 more on 25 receptions, will be counted on to carry more of the load. Mistakes have plagued the Irish, who rank second-to-last nationally in turnover margin (minus-1.09).

ABOUT STANFORD (10-1): The Cardinal boast the nation's most touted NFL prospect in Luck (2,937 yards passing, 31 touchdowns), who ranks fifth among FBS quarterbacks in passing efficiency, but their offense is far from a one-man show. Stanford averages 209 yards on the ground, led by junior Stepfan Taylor (1,035 yards, eight touchdowns). An underrated defense holds up its end, ranking fifth in rushing defense (93.4 yards) and 24th in total defense (333.45). Senior linebackers Chase Thomas has 14.5 tackles for a loss.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Stanford.
* Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Notre Dame leads the series 17-8, but has lost the last two meetings, including 37-14 at home last season. The Irish are 6-5 all-time at Stanford Stadium.

2. Stanford has won 22 of its last 25 home games dating back to the end of the 2007 season, with all of the losses coming in conference play.

3. Notre Dame senior safety Harrison Smith and junior linebacker Manti Te'o enter the game with 299 career tackles apiece, tied for 10th on the school's all-time list.

PREDICTION: Stanford 37, Notre Dame 34 - Though both defenses are improved this season, the series has been dominated by offensive fireworks in recent years and that trend figures to continue Saturday.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------